| 1. |
-
- 2019
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Barausse, Enrico, et al.
(author)
-
Prospects for fundamental physics with LISA
- 2020
-
In: General Relativity and Gravitation. - : SPRINGER/PLENUM PUBLISHERS. - 0001-7701 .- 1572-9532. ; 52:8
-
Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In this paper, which is of programmatic rather than quantitative nature, we aim to further delineate and sharpen the future potential of the LISA mission in the area of fundamental physics. Given the very broad range of topics that might be relevant to LISA,we present here a sample of what we view as particularly promising fundamental physics directions. We organize these directions through a "science-first" approach that allows us to classify how LISA data can inform theoretical physics in a variety of areas. For each of these theoretical physics classes, we identify the sources that are currently expected to provide the principal contribution to our knowledge, and the areas that need further development. The classification presented here should not be thought of as cast in stone, but rather as a fluid framework that is amenable to change with the flow of new insights in theoretical physics.
|
|
| 9. |
- Cameron-McDermott, Suzette M., et al.
(author)
-
Antimicrobial susceptibility of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates and syndromic treatment of men with urethral discharge in Kingston, Jamaica, 2018-19
- 2022
-
In: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. - : Oxford University Press. - 0305-7453 .- 1460-2091. ; 77:1, s. 218-222
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To quantitatively determine the antimicrobial susceptibility of clinical Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates from men with urethral discharge in Jamaica and to describe the syndromic treatment therapies administered.METHODS: Urethral eSwabs (Copan) were collected from 175 men presenting with urethral discharge to the Comprehensive Health Centre STI Clinic, Kingston, Jamaica. Clinical information was collected and MICs of eight antimicrobials were determined for N. gonorrhoeae isolates (n = 96) using Etest and interpreted using CLSI criteria.RESULTS: The median age of the subjects was 28 years (range: 18-73 years) with a median of 2 sexual partners (range: 1-25) per male in the previous 3 months. All examined N. gonorrhoeae isolates were susceptible to ceftriaxone (96/96), azithromycin (91/91), cefixime (91/91) and spectinomycin (91/91). For ciprofloxacin and gentamicin, respectively, 98.9% (91/92) and 91.3% (84/92) of the isolates were susceptible and 1.1% (1/92) and 8.7% (8/92) showed intermediate susceptibility/resistance. For tetracycline and benzylpenicillin, respectively, 38.0% (35/92) and 22.0% (20/91) of the isolates were susceptible, 52.2% (48/92) and 74.7% (68/91) showed intermediate susceptibility/resistance and 9.8% (9/92) and 3.3% (3/91) were resistant. Syndromic treatment was administered as follows: 93.1% received 250 mg of ceftriaxone intramuscularly plus 100 mg of doxycycline orally q12h for 1-2 weeks and 6.9% received 500 mg of ciprofloxacin orally plus 100 mg of doxycycline orally q12h for 1 week.CONCLUSIONS: Ceftriaxone (250 mg) remains appropriate for gonorrhoea treatment in the examined population of men in Kingston, Jamaica. Surveillance of N. gonorrhoeae AMR should be expanded in Jamaica and other Caribbean countries to guide evidence-based treatment guidelines.
|
|
| 10. |
- Chang, Kuang Yu, et al.
(author)
-
Observational constraints reduce model spread but not uncertainty in global wetland methane emission estimates
- 2023
-
In: Global Change Biology. - 1354-1013. ; 29:15, s. 4298-4312
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH4 source, estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH4 year−1) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.
|
|
| 11. |
- Gemmell, Neil J., et al.
(author)
-
The tuatara genome reveals ancient features of amniote evolution
- 2020
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 584:7821, s. 403-409
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus)—the only living member of the reptilian order Rhynchocephalia (Sphenodontia), once widespread across Gondwana1,2—is an iconic species that is endemic to New Zealand2,3. A key link to the now-extinct stem reptiles (from which dinosaurs, modern reptiles, birds and mammals evolved), the tuatara provides key insights into the ancestral amniotes2,4. Here we analyse the genome of the tuatara, which—at approximately 5 Gb—is among the largest of the vertebrate genomes yet assembled. Our analyses of this genome, along with comparisons with other vertebrate genomes, reinforce the uniqueness of the tuatara. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that the tuatara lineage diverged from that of snakes and lizards around 250 million years ago. This lineage also shows moderate rates of molecular evolution, with instances of punctuated evolution. Our genome sequence analysis identifies expansions of proteins, non-protein-coding RNA families and repeat elements, the latter of which show an amalgam of reptilian and mammalian features. The sequencing of the tuatara genome provides a valuable resource for deep comparative analyses of tetrapods, as well as for tuatara biology and conservation. Our study also provides important insights into both the technical challenges and the cultural obligations that are associated with genome sequencing.
|
|
| 12. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(author)
-
Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
|
|
| 13. |
- Harrison, Craig D., et al.
(author)
-
THE XMM CLUSTER SURVEY : THE STELLAR MASS ASSEMBLY OF FOSSIL GALAXIES
- 2012
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 752:1, s. 12-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents both the result of a search for fossil systems (FSs) within the XMM Cluster Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the results of a study of the stellar mass assembly and stellar populations of their fossil galaxies. In total, 17 groups and clusters are identified at z < 0.25 with large magnitude gaps between the first and fourth brightest galaxies. All the information necessary to classify these systems as fossils is provided. For both groups and clusters, the total and fractional luminosity of the brightest galaxy is positively correlated with the magnitude gap. The brightest galaxies in FSs (called fossil galaxies) have stellar populations and star formation histories which are similar to normal brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). However, at fixed group/cluster mass, the stellar masses of the fossil galaxies are larger compared to normal BCGs, a fact that holds true over a wide range of group/cluster masses. Moreover, the fossil galaxies are found to contain a significant fraction of the total optical luminosity of the group/cluster within 0.5 R-200, as much as 85%, compared to the non-fossils, which can have as little as 10%. Our results suggest that FSs formed early and in the highest density regions of the universe and that fossil galaxies represent the end products of galaxy mergers in groups and clusters.
|
|
| 14. |
- Hilton, Matt, et al.
(author)
-
The XMM Cluster Survey : evidence for energy injection at high redshift from evolution of the X-ray luminosity-temperature relation
- 2012
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 424:3, s. 2086-2096
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We measure the evolution of the X-ray luminositytemperature (LX - T) relation since z similar to 1.5 using a sample of 211 serendipitously detected galaxy clusters with spectroscopic redshifts drawn from the XMM Cluster Survey first data release (XCS-DR1). This is the first study spanning this redshift range using a single, large, homogeneous cluster sample. Using an orthogonal regression technique, we find no evidence for evolution in the slope or intrinsic scatter of the relation since z similar to 1.5, finding both to be consistent with previous measurements at z similar to 0.1. However, the normalization is seen to evolve negatively with respect to the self-similar expectation: we find E-1(z)?LX = 1044.67 +/- 0.09(T/5)3.04 +/- 0.16(1 + z)-1.5 +/- 0.5, which is within 2 sigma of the zero evolution case. We see milder, but still negative, evolution with respect to self-similar when using a bisector regression technique. We compare our results to numerical simulations, where we fit simulated cluster samples using the same methods used on the XCS data. Our data favour models in which the majority of the excess entropy required to explain the slope of the LX - T relation is injected at high redshift. Simulations in which active galactic nucleus feedback is implemented using prescriptions from current semi-analytic galaxy formation models predict the positive evolution of the normalization, and differ from our data at more than 5 sigma. This suggests that more efficient feedback at high redshift may be needed in these models.
|
|
| 15. |
- Hilton, Matt, et al.
(author)
-
THE XMM CLUSTER SURVEY : ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI AND STARBURST GALAXIES IN XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 AT z=1.46
- 2010
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 718:1, s. 133-147
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use Chandra X-ray and Spitzer infrared (IR) observations to explore the active galactic nucleus (AGN) and starburst populations of XMMXCS J2215.9-1738 at z = 1.46, one of the most distant spectroscopically confirmed galaxy clusters known. The high-resolution X-ray imaging reveals that the cluster emission is contaminated by point sources that were not resolved in XMM-Newton observations of the system, and have the effect of hardening the spectrum, leading to the previously reported temperature for this system being overestimated. From a joint spectroscopic analysis of the Chandra and XMM-Newton data, the cluster is found to have temperature T = 4.1(-0.9)(+0.6) keV and luminosity LX = (2.92(-0.35)(+0.24)) x 1044 erg s(-1), extrapolated to a radius of 2 Mpc. As a result of this revised analysis, the cluster is found to lie on the sigma(v)-T relation, but the cluster remains less luminous than would be expected from self-similar evolution of the local L-X-T relation. Two of the newly discovered X-ray AGNs are cluster members, while a third object, which is also a prominent 24 mu m source, is found to have properties consistent with it being a high-redshift, highly obscured object in the background. We find a total of eight > 5 sigma 24 mu m sources associated with cluster members (four spectroscopically confirmed and four selected using photometric redshifts) and one additional 24 mu m source with two possible optical/near-IR counterparts that may be associated with the cluster. Examining the Infrared Array Camera colors of these sources, we find that one object is likely to be an AGN. Assuming that the other 24 mu m sources are powered by star formation, their IR luminosities imply star formation rates similar to 100 M-circle dot yr(-1). We find that three of these sources are located at projected distances of <250 kpc from the cluster center, suggesting that a large amount of star formation may be taking place in the cluster core, in contrast to clusters at low redshift.
|
|
| 16. |
- Hollestelle, Antoinette, et al.
(author)
-
No clinical utility of KRAS variant rs61764370 for ovarian or breast cancer
- 2016
-
In: Gynecologic Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0090-8258 .- 1095-6859. ; 141:2, s. 386-401
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective Clinical genetic testing is commercially available for rs61764370, an inherited variant residing in a KRAS 3′ UTR microRNA binding site, based on suggested associations with increased ovarian and breast cancer risk as well as with survival time. However, prior studies, emphasizing particular subgroups, were relatively small. Therefore, we comprehensively evaluated ovarian and breast cancer risks as well as clinical outcome associated with rs61764370. Methods Centralized genotyping and analysis were performed for 140,012 women enrolled in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (15,357 ovarian cancer patients; 30,816 controls), the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (33,530 breast cancer patients; 37,640 controls), and the Consortium of Modifiers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 (14,765 BRCA1 and 7904 BRCA2 mutation carriers). Results We found no association with risk of ovarian cancer (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.04, p = 0.74) or breast cancer (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.01, p = 0.19) and results were consistent among mutation carriers (BRCA1, ovarian cancer HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.97-1.23, p = 0.14, breast cancer HR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.97-1.12, p = 0.27; BRCA2, ovarian cancer HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.71-1.13, p = 0.34, breast cancer HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.94-1.19, p = 0.35). Null results were also obtained for associations with overall survival following ovarian cancer (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.07, p = 0.38), breast cancer (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.87-1.06, p = 0.38), and all other previously-reported associations. Conclusions rs61764370 is not associated with risk of ovarian or breast cancer nor with clinical outcome for patients with these cancers. Therefore, genotyping this variant has no clinical utility related to the prediction or management of these cancers.
|
|
| 17. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(author)
-
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
-
In: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
|
|
| 18. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N., et al.
(author)
-
The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
- 2014
-
In: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
|
|
| 19. |
- Hudson, Thomas J., et al.
(author)
-
International network of cancer genome projects
- 2010
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 464:7291, s. 993-998
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) was launched to coordinate large-scale cancer genome studies in tumours from 50 different cancer types and/or subtypes that are of clinical and societal importance across the globe. Systematic studies of more than 25,000 cancer genomes at the genomic, epigenomic and transcriptomic levels will reveal the repertoire of oncogenic mutations, uncover traces of the mutagenic influences, define clinically relevant subtypes for prognosis and therapeutic management, and enable the development of new cancer therapies.
|
|
| 20. |
- Kenna, Kevin P., et al.
(author)
-
NEK1 variants confer susceptibility to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis
- 2016
-
In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 48:9, s. 1037-1042
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To identify genetic factors contributing to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), we conducted whole-exome analyses of 1,022 index familial ALS (FALS) cases and 7,315 controls. In a new screening strategy, we performed gene-burden analyses trained with established ALS genes and identified a significant association between loss-of-function (LOF) NEK1 variants and FALS risk. Independently, autozygosity mapping for an isolated community in the Netherlands identified a NEK1 p.Arg261 His variant as a candidate risk factor. Replication analyses of sporadic ALS (SALS) cases and independent control cohorts confirmed significant disease association for both p.Arg261 His (10,589 samples analyzed) and NEK1 LOF variants (3,362 samples analyzed). In total, we observed NEK1 risk variants in nearly 3% of ALS cases. NEK1 has been linked to several cellular functions, including cilia formation, DNA-damage response, microtubule stability, neuronal morphology and axonal polarity. Our results provide new and important insights into ALS etiopathogenesis and genetic etiology.
|
|
| 21. |
- Lloyd-Davies, E. J., et al.
(author)
-
The XMM Cluster Survey : X-ray analysis methodology
- 2011
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 418:1, s. 14-53
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The XMM Cluster Survey (XCS) is a serendipitous search for galaxy clusters using all publicly available data in the XMMNewton Science Archive. Its main aims are to measure cosmological parameters and trace the evolution of X-ray scaling relations. In this paper we describe the data processing methodology applied to the 5776 XMM observations used to construct the current XCS source catalogue. A total of 3675 > 4s cluster candidates with > 50 background-subtracted X-ray counts are extracted from a total non-overlapping area suitable for cluster searching of 410 deg2. Of these, 993 candidates are detected with > 300 background-subtracted X-ray photon counts, and we demonstrate that robust temperature measurements can be obtained down to this count limit. We describe in detail the automated pipelines used to perform the spectral and surface brightness fitting for these candidates, as well as to estimate redshifts from the X-ray data alone. A total of 587 (122) X-ray temperatures to a typical accuracy of < 40 (< 10) per cent have been measured to date. We also present the methodology adopted for determining the selection function of the survey, and show that the extended source detection algorithm is robust to a range of cluster morphologies by inserting mock clusters derived from hydrodynamical simulations into real XMMimages. These tests show that the simple isothermal beta-profiles is sufficient to capture the essential details of the cluster population detected in the archival XMM observations. The redshift follow-up of the XCS cluster sample is presented in a companion paper, together with a first data release of 503 optically confirmed clusters.
|
|
| 22. |
- Mavaddat, Nasim, et al.
(author)
-
Prediction of Breast Cancer Risk Based on Profiling With Common Genetic Variants
- 2015
-
In: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2105 .- 0027-8874. ; 107:5, s. 036-036
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking. Methods: We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates. Results: There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.
|
|
| 23. |
- Mehrtens, Nicola, et al.
(author)
-
The XMM Cluster Survey : optical analysis methodology and the first data release
- 2012
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 423:2, s. 1024-1052
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The XMM Cluster Survey (XCS) is a serendipitous search for galaxy clusters using all publicly available data in the XMMNewton Science Archive. Its main aims are to measure cosmological parameters and trace the evolution of X-ray scaling relations. In this paper we present the first data release from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS-DR1). This consists of 503 optically confirmed, serendipitously detected, X-ray clusters. Of these clusters, 256 are new to the literature and 357 are new X-ray discoveries. We present 463 clusters with a redshift estimate (0.06 < z < 1.46), including 261 clusters with spectroscopic redshifts. The remainder have photometric redshifts. In addition, we have measured X-ray temperatures (TX) for 401 clusters (0.4 < TX < 14.7 keV). We highlight seven interesting subsamples of XCS-DR1 clusters: (i) 10 clusters at high redshift (z > 1.0, including a new spectroscopically confirmed cluster at z= 1.01); (ii) 66 clusters with high TX (>5 keV); (iii) 130 clusters/groups with low TX (<2 keV); (iv) 27 clusters with measured TX values in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 co-add region; (v) 77 clusters with measured TX values in the Dark Energy Survey region; (vi) 40 clusters detected with sufficient counts to permit mass measurements (under the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium); (vii) 104 clusters that can be used for applications such as the derivation of cosmological parameters and the measurement of cluster scaling relations. The X-ray analysis methodology used to construct and analyse the XCS-DR1 cluster sample has been presented in a companion paper, Lloyd-Davies et al.
|
|
| 24. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(author)
-
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 25. |
|
|
