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- Choquet, Remi, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating demographic parameters from capturerecapture data with dependence among individuals within clusters
- 2013
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Ingår i: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 4:5, s. 474-482
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two-level data, in which level-1 units or individuals are nested within level-2 units or clusters, are very common in natural populations. However, very few multilevel analyses are conducted for data with imperfect detection of individuals. Multilevel analyses are important to quantify the variability at each level of the data. In this study, we present two-level analyses for estimating demographic parameters from data with imperfect detection of individuals and with a source of individual variability that is nested within a source of cluster variability. This method allows separating and quantifying the phenotypic plasticity or facultative behavioural responses from the evolutionary responses. We illustrate our approach using data from studies of a long-lived perennially monogamous seabird, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea) and a patchy population of collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis). We demonstrate the existence of dependence in recapture probability between paired individuals in the Cory's shearwater. In addition, we show that family structure has no influence on parentoffspring resemblance in collared flycatchers dispersal. The new method is implemented in program e-surge which is freely available from the internet.
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- Keogan, Katharine, et al.
(författare)
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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8:4, s. 313-318
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity(1), and is often sensitive to climatic conditions(2). Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey(3). This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers(4). However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction(5). Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (-0.020 days yr(-1)) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (-0.272 days degrees C-1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources(2).
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