| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Koettgen, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association analyses identify 18 new loci associated with serum urate concentrations
- 2013
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:2, s. 145-154
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Elevated serum urate concentrations can cause gout, a prevalent and painful inflammatory arthritis. By combining data from >140,000 individuals of European ancestry within the Global Urate Genetics Consortium (GUGC), we identified and replicated 28 genome-wide significant loci in association with serum urate concentrations (18 new regions in or near TRIM46, INHBB, SEMBT1, TMEM171, VEGFA, BAZ1B, PRKAG2, STC1, HNF4G, A1CF, ATXN2, UBE2Q2, IGF1R, NFAT5, MAF, HLF, ACVR1B-ACVRL1 and B3GNT4). Associations for many of the loci were of similar magnitude in individuals of non-European ancestry. We further characterized these loci for associations with gout, transcript expression and the fractional excretion of urate. Network analyses implicate the inhibins-activins signaling pathways and glucose metabolism in systemic urate control. New candidate genes for serum urate concentration highlight the importance of metabolic control of urate production and excretion, which may have implications for the treatment and prevention of gout.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Allentoft, Morten E., et al.
(author)
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100 ancient genomes show repeated population turnovers in Neolithic Denmark
- 2024
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In: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 625, s. 329-337
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Major migration events in Holocene Eurasia have been characterized genetically at broad regional scales1–4. However, insights into the population dynamics in the contact zones are hampered by a lack of ancient genomic data sampled at high spatiotemporal resolution5–7. Here, to address this, we analysed shotgun-sequenced genomes from 100 skeletons spanning 7,300 years of the Mesolithic period, Neolithic period and Early Bronze Age in Denmark and integrated these with proxies for diet (13C and 15N content), mobility (87Sr/86Sr ratio) and vegetation cover (pollen). We observe that Danish Mesolithic individuals of the Maglemose, Kongemose and Ertebølle cultures form a distinct genetic cluster related to other Western European hunter-gatherers. Despite shifts in material culture they displayed genetic homogeneity from around 10,500 to 5,900 calibrated years before present, when Neolithic farmers with Anatolian-derived ancestry arrived. Although the Neolithic transition was delayed by more than a millennium relative to Central Europe, it was very abrupt and resulted in a population turnover with limited genetic contribution from local hunter-gatherers. The succeeding Neolithic population, associated with the Funnel Beaker culture, persisted for only about 1,000 years before immigrants with eastern Steppe-derived ancestry arrived. This second and equally rapid population replacement gave rise to the Single Grave culture with an ancestry profile more similar to present-day Danes. In our multiproxy dataset, these major demographic events are manifested as parallel shifts in genotype, phenotype, diet and land use.
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| 5. |
- Allentoft, Morten E., et al.
(author)
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Population genomics of post-glacial western Eurasia
- 2024
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In: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 625:7994, s. 301-311
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Western Eurasia witnessed several large-scale human migrations during the Holocene1–5. Here, to investigate the cross-continental effects of these migrations, we shotgun-sequenced 317 genomes—mainly from the Mesolithic and Neolithic periods—from across northern and western Eurasia. These were imputed alongside published data to obtain diploid genotypes from more than 1,600 ancient humans. Our analyses revealed a ‘great divide’ genomic boundary extending from the Black Sea to the Baltic. Mesolithic hunter-gatherers were highly genetically differentiated east and west of this zone, and the effect of the neolithization was equally disparate. Large-scale ancestry shifts occurred in the west as farming was introduced, including near-total replacement of hunter-gatherers in many areas, whereas no substantial ancestry shifts happened east of the zone during the same period. Similarly, relatedness decreased in the west from the Neolithic transition onwards, whereas, east of the Urals, relatedness remained high until around 4,000 bp, consistent with the persistence of localized groups of hunter-gatherers. The boundary dissolved when Yamnaya-related ancestry spread across western Eurasia around 5,000 bp, resulting in a second major turnover that reached most parts of Europe within a 1,000-year span. The genetic origin and fate of the Yamnaya have remained elusive, but we show that hunter-gatherers from the Middle Don region contributed ancestry to them. Yamnaya groups later admixed with individuals associated with the Globular Amphora culture before expanding into Europe. Similar turnovers occurred in western Siberia, where we report new genomic data from a ‘Neolithic steppe’ cline spanning the Siberian forest steppe to Lake Baikal. These prehistoric migrations had profound and lasting effects on the genetic diversity of Eurasian populations.
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| 6. |
- Abel, I, et al.
(author)
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Overview of the JET results with the ITER-like wall
- 2013
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In: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 53:10, s. 104002-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Following the completion in May 2011 of the shutdown for the installation of the beryllium wall and the tungsten divertor, the first set of JET campaigns have addressed the investigation of the retention properties and the development of operational scenarios with the new plasma-facing materials. The large reduction in the carbon content (more than a factor ten) led to a much lower Z(eff) (1.2-1.4) during L- and H-mode plasmas, and radiation during the burn-through phase of the plasma initiation with the consequence that breakdown failures are almost absent. Gas balance experiments have shown that the fuel retention rate with the new wall is substantially reduced with respect to the C wall. The re-establishment of the baseline H-mode and hybrid scenarios compatible with the new wall has required an optimization of the control of metallic impurity sources and heat loads. Stable type-I ELMy H-mode regimes with H-98,H-y2 close to 1 and beta(N) similar to 1.6 have been achieved using gas injection. ELM frequency is a key factor for the control of the metallic impurity accumulation. Pedestal temperatures tend to be lower with the new wall, leading to reduced confinement, but nitrogen seeding restores high pedestal temperatures and confinement. Compared with the carbon wall, major disruptions with the new wall show a lower radiated power and a slower current quench. The higher heat loads on Be wall plasma-facing components due to lower radiation made the routine use of massive gas injection for disruption mitigation essential.
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| 7. |
- Herum, Kate M., et al.
(author)
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Syndecan-4 Protects the Heart From the Profibrotic Effects of Thrombin-Cleaved Osteopontin
- 2020
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 9:3, s. 013518-013518
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Pressure overload of the heart occurs in patients with hypertension or valvular stenosis and induces cardiac fibrosis because of excessive production of extracellular matrix by activated cardiac fibroblasts. This initially provides essential mechanical support to the heart, but eventually compromises function. Osteopontin is associated with fibrosis; however, the underlying signaling mechanisms are not well understood. Herein, we examine the effect of thrombin-cleaved osteopontin on fibrosis in the heart and explore the role of syndecan-4 in regulating cleavage of osteopontin. Methods and Results: Osteopontin was upregulated and cleaved by thrombin in the pressure-overloaded heart of mice subjected to aortic banding. Cleaved osteopontin was higher in plasma from patients with aortic stenosis receiving crystalloid compared with blood cardioplegia, likely because of less heparin-induced inhibition of thrombin. Cleaved osteopontin and the specific osteopontin peptide sequence RGDSLAYGLR that is exposed after thrombin cleavage both induced collagen production in cardiac fibroblasts. Like osteopontin, the heparan sulfate proteoglycan syndecan-4 was upregulated after aortic banding. Consistent with a heparan sulfate binding domain in the osteopontin cleavage site, syndecan-4 was found to bind to osteopontin in left ventricles and cardiac fibroblasts and protected osteopontin from cleavage by thrombin. Shedding of the extracellular part of syndecan-4 was more prominent at later remodeling phases, at which time levels of cleaved osteopontin were increased. Conclusions: Thrombin-cleaved osteopontin induces collagen production by cardiac fibroblasts. Syndecan-4 protects osteopontin from cleavage by thrombin, but this protection is lost when syndecan-4 is shed in later phases of remodeling, contributing to progression of cardiac fibrosis.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Romanelli, F, et al.
(author)
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Overview of the JET results
- 2011
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In: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP Publishing. - 1741-4326 .- 0029-5515. ; 51:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since the last IAEA Conference JET has been in operation for one year with a programmatic focus on the qualification of ITER operating scenarios, the consolidation of ITER design choices and preparation for plasma operation with the ITER-like wall presently being installed in JET. Good progress has been achieved, including stationary ELMy H-mode operation at 4.5 MA. The high confinement hybrid scenario has been extended to high triangularity, lower ρ*and to pulse lengths comparable to the resistive time. The steady-state scenario has also been extended to lower ρ*and ν*and optimized to simultaneously achieve, under stationary conditions, ITER-like values of all other relevant normalized parameters. A dedicated helium campaign has allowed key aspects of plasma control and H-mode operation for the ITER non-activated phase to be evaluated. Effective sawtooth control by fast ions has been demonstrated with3He minority ICRH, a scenario with negligible minority current drive. Edge localized mode (ELM) control studies using external n = 1 and n = 2 perturbation fields have found a resonance effect in ELM frequency for specific q95values. Complete ELM suppression has, however, not been observed, even with an edge Chirikov parameter larger than 1. Pellet ELM pacing has been demonstrated and the minimum pellet size needed to trigger an ELM has been estimated. For both natural and mitigated ELMs a broadening of the divertor ELM-wetted area with increasing ELM size has been found. In disruption studies with massive gas injection up to 50% of the thermal energy could be radiated before, and 20% during, the thermal quench. Halo currents could be reduced by 60% and, using argon/deuterium and neon/deuterium gas mixtures, runaway electron generation could be avoided. Most objectives of the ITER-like ICRH antenna have been demonstrated; matching with closely packed straps, ELM resilience, scattering matrix arc detection and operation at high power density (6.2 MW m-2) and antenna strap voltages (42 kV). Coupling measurements are in very good agreement with TOPICA modelling. © 2011 IAEA, Vienna.
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| 10. |
- Theis-Bröhl, Katharina, et al.
(author)
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Self-Assembled Layering of Magnetic Nanoparticles in a Ferrofluid on Silicon Surfaces
- 2018
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In: ACS Applied Materials and Interfaces. - : AMER CHEMICAL SOC. - 1944-8244 .- 1944-8252. ; 10:5, s. 5050-5060
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article describes the three-dimensional self assembly of monodisperse colloidal magnetite nanoparticles (NPs) from a dilute water-based ferrofluid onto a silicon surface and the dependence of the resultant magnetic structure on the applied field. The NPs assemble into close-packed layers on the surface followed by more loosely packed ones. The magnetic field-dependent magnetization of the individual NP layers depends on both the rotational freedom of the layer and the magnetization of the adjacent layers. For layers in which the NPs are more free to rotate, the easy axis of the NP can readily orient along the field direction. In more dense packing, free rotation of the NPs is hampered, and the NP ensembles likely build up quasi-domain states to minimize energy, which leads to lower magnetization in those layers. Detailed analysis of polarized neutron reflectometry data together with model calculations of the arrangement of the NPs within the layers and input from small-angle scattering measurements provide full characterization of the core/shell NP dimensions, degree of chaining, arrangement of the NPs within the different layers, and magnetization depth profile.
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