| 1. |
- Rudolfsen, Ida
(author)
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Fighting For Food? : Investigating Food Insecurity as a Source of Urban Unrest
- 2021
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Under what conditions does food insecurity lead to urban unrest? This dissertation contributes to the burgeoning literature on this topic by introducing a multifaceted conceptualization of experienced food insecurity, and by developing a context-specific framework for food-related unrest. It investigates the effect of experienced food insecurity on citizens’ willingness to participate in unrest, and how a favourable structural context in the form of organizational networks moderates this relationship. By going beyond aggregate food insecurity proxies and direct effects, the dissertation makes theoretical and empirical contributions to existing knowledge. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter and four independent essays. Essay I reviews the literature on food insecurity and social upheaval, identifies main research gaps, and provides suggestions for future research. Focusing on urban Africa between 1990 to 2014, Essay II examines the moderating role of societal organizations on urban unrest when food prices increase. It finds that the manifestations of food-related unrest are contingent on the level of state repression of societal organizations. Essay III and IV use unique survey data of residents in Johannesburg, South Africa. Essay III applies a vignette experiment to investigate the assumption that food is an especially potent driver for people’s willingness to engage in unrest. The results indicate a higher willingness to engage in unrest when presented with a scenario of increasing living expenses, but this effect does not appear to be stronger for the price of food. Essay IV conceptualizes experienced food insecurity on the individual level, and finds that food insecurity increases unrest participation, where some types of organizational networks act as catalysts in this relationship. Taken together, the dissertation furthers our understanding of the relationship between food insecurity and social upheaval, suggesting that both food-related grievances and a favourable organizational context have significant influence on the likelihood of urban unrest.
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| 2. |
- Aranki Nassar, Adéle
(author)
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Events of the Tunisian Revolution : The Three First Years
- 2016
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This report highlights the episodes, which led to the commonly called “Arab Spring” that originated in Tunisia. It describes the chain of events that took place and their geographical spread all over the country. It is well known that these events started a reaction throughout the Arab World, in some cases with success while in other countries it caused a reversal that can be discussed and might be the goal of further research.Three main areas are included and studied in this report. The first introduces the sequence of events. The second analyses the trends and the spread of these events. The final part discusses the differences between Tunisia and other countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
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| 3. |
- Aranki Nassar, Adéle
(author)
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Peace Research in the Arab World : An Inventory 2011
- 2012
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This study locates the universities in the Arab countries that teach or house a research milieu dealing with peace and conflict research. It also identifies the level of teaching and presents information on course descriptions. There are more than 450 universities with different approaches, for instance, in political science and multidisciplinary programs such as diplomacy, international relations, strategic studies, law and related fields in humanities. In total, 73 universities and institutions are specifically identified in this report.
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| 4. |
- Brosché, Johan, 1978-
(author)
-
Masters of War : The Role of Elites in Sudan’s Communal Conflicts
- 2014
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why do communal conflicts turn violent in some regions but not in others? Communal conflicts pose a severe threat to human security and kill thousands of people each year, but our understanding of this phenomenon is still limited. In particular, we lack knowledge about why some of these conflicts become violent while others are resolved peacefully. This study addresses this knowledge gap and has a novel approach by addressing subnational variations that are unexplained by previous research. The theoretical framework combines insights from three different perspectives focusing on the role of the state, elite interactions, and conditions for cooperation over common resources. Empirically, the research question is investigated by combining within- and between-region analyses of three Sudanese regions: Darfur, Eastern Sudan, and Greater Upper Nile. Despite sharing several similar characteristics, communal conflicts have killed thousands in Darfur and Greater Upper Nile but only a few dozen in Eastern Sudan. The empirical analysis builds on extensive material collected during fieldwork.This study generates several conclusions about the importance of government conduct and how state behavior contributes to the prevalence of violent communal conflicts. It finds that when governments act in a biased manner – favoring certain communities over others – interactions between central and local elites as well as among local elites are disrupted. Unconstructive elite interactions, in turn, have negative effects on three mechanisms that are crucial for communal cooperation. First, when the regime is biased, communal affiliation, rather than the severity and context of a violation, determines the sanctions that are imposed on the perpetrators. Second, government bias leads to unclear boundaries, which contribute to violent communal conflicts by creating disarray and by shifting power balances between the communities. Third, regime partiality distances rules from local conditions and restricts the influence of local actors who have an understanding of local circumstances. The study also reveals why a regime acts with partiality in some areas but not in others. The answer to this question is found in the complex interplay between the threats and opportunities that a region presents to the regime. Taken together, the findings have important implications for the prevention and management of communal conflict.
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| 5. |
- Brounéus, Karen, 1973-
(author)
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Rethinking Reconciliation : Concepts, Methods, and an Empirical Study of Truth Telling and Psychological Health in Rwanda
- 2008
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation combines psychology with peace and conflict research in a cross-disciplinary approach to reconciliation processes after intrastate armed conflict. Two overarching contributions are made to the field of reconciliation research. The first is conceptual and methodological. The vague concept of reconciliation is defined and operationalized (Paper I), and a method is proposed for how reconciliation may be studied systematically at the national level (Paper II). By discussing what reconciliation is and how we should measure it, comparative research on reconciliation is facilitated which is imperative if we wish to learn of its promises and pitfalls in post-conflict peacebuilding. The second contribution is empirical. There has been an assumption that truth telling is healing and thereby will lead to reconciliation; healing is the assumed link between truth and reconciliation. This assumption was investigated in two studies in Rwanda in 2006. A multistage, stratified cluster random survey of 1,200 adults was conducted to assess whether witnessing in the gacaca, the Rwandan village tribunals for truth and reconciliation, was beneficial for psychological health; thereby investigating the claim that truth telling is healing (Paper III). The results of the survey are disconcerting. Witnesses in the gacaca suffered from significantly higher levels of depression and posttraumatic stress disorder than non-witnesses also when controlling for important predictors for psychological ill-health such as gender or trauma exposure. To acquire a more comprehensive understanding of the experience of witnessing in the gacaca, in-depth interviews were conducted with 16 women genocide survivors who had witnessed in the gacaca (Paper IV). The results of this study challenge the claim that truth telling is healing, suggesting instead that there are risks for the individuals on whom truth-telling processes depend. Traumatization, ill-health, isolation, and insecurity dominate the lives of the testifying women. Insecurity as a result of the truth-telling process emerged as one of the most crucial issues at stake. This dissertation presents a novel understanding of the complexity of reconciliation in post-conflict peacebuilding, demonstrating that truth and reconciliation processes may entail more risks than were previously known. The results of this dissertation can be used to improve the study and the design of truth and reconciliation processes after civil war and genocide.
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| 6. |
- Cornell, Svante E., 1975-
(author)
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Autonomy and Conflict : Ethnoterritoriality and Separatism in the South Caucasus - Cases in Georgia
- 2002
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Providing minority populations with autonomy is gaining appreciation as a method of solving,managing, and even pre-empting ethnic conflict. However, in spite of the enthusiasm for autonomy solutions among academics and practitioners alike, there is reason to argue that the provision of autonomy for a minority may under certain circumstances increase rather than decrease the likelihood of conflict. In certain political conditions, autonomy strengthens the separate identity of a minority; it thereby increases its incentives to collective action against the state; and most of all its capacity to seek separation from the central state, through the state-like institutions that autonomy entails. The objective of this dissertation is to investigate whether territorial autonomy was a contributing factor to the violent ethnic conflicts that have erupted in the South Caucasus since the late 1980s. It presents a theoretical argument to explain which qualities of autonomy solutions increase the likelihood of conflict; and then seeks to outline possible rival explanations derived from the theoretical literature. The dissertation then examines the explanatory value of autonomy as compared to nine other possible causal factors in a study of nine minorities in the South Caucasus. Finding that autonomy has the highest explanatory value of any of the factors under study, it then moves on to study in depth the five minorities existing on the territory of the republic of Georgia. Three of them, Abkhazia, Ajaria, and South Ossetia, were autonomous, whereas two (the Armenians and Azeris in Southern Georgia) had no autonomous status. The dissertation shows how the institution of autonomy, by promoting an ethnic elite in control of state-like institutions, and by enhancing factors such as leadership, economic viability, and external support, played a crucial together with these factors in the escalation to conflict in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whereas the absence of autonomy mitigated conflict in Javaheti’s Armenian and Kvemo Kartli’s Azeri populations.
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| 7. |
- Deglow, Annekatrin, 1988-
(author)
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Forces of Destruction and Construction : Local Conflict Dynamics, Institutional Trust and Postwar Crime
- 2018
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In 2017 alone, an estimated 68,851 people lost their lives as a consequence of civil wars, that is, armed conflicts that take place within the borders of a state. Such violent conflicts not only lead to immense human suffering, but also leave social, economic and political imprints on the societies that experience them. This dissertation contributes to a burgeoning literature that seeks to understand these imprints by studying how local conflict dynamics affect two specific outcomes: institutional trust and postwar crime. It comprises four independent essays that pose separate research questions, but taken together make important contributions to our understanding of how subnational particularities related to conflict intensity, armed actors and the type of violence employed determine whether, how and why civil wars affect the outcomes of interest. Essay I finds that a large-scale insurgent attack on civilians led to an immediate increase in individual-level trust in state institutions in Kabul City. Essay II finds that conflict intensity at the local level in Afghanistan has a negative impact on individual-level perceptions of one specific state institution: the police. Essay III finds that the more an area in Northern Ireland was affected by wartime violence, the more crime it displayed in the postwar context, but that this effect is contingent on the actor perpetrating violence. Finally, Essay IV shows how conflict dynamics in a former insurgent stronghold of Northern Ireland (West Belfast) changed the style of policing at the local level, as well as the consequences this had for the police’s ability to enforce law and order in the postwar context. These findings speak to an emerging research agenda that studies the conditions under which civil wars function either as forces of destruction or as catalysts for societal development, and offer three larger conclusions: conflict dynamics shape the relationship between local populations and the state far into the postwar period; institutional consequences of armed conflict can translate into postwar challenges, such as crime; and conflict dynamics affect perceptions of state institutions in a quite similar manner across rather different contexts, in this case, Afghanistan and Northern Ireland.
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| 8. |
- Döring, Stefan, 1986-
(author)
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Cooperation and Conflict amid Water Scarcity
- 2022
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Over two billion people remain without safe drinking water and more than four billion lack basic access to sanitation. Safely managing water is key for livelihoods, food security, energy production, and overall socio-economic development. This dissertation analyzes how scarce water resources affect cooperation and conflict. First, I study water scarcity in relation to communal violence. Second, I consider how water scarcity can be a source of cooperative behavior, a key ingredient to peace.This dissertation contributes to research on peace and conflict issues and across other disciplines, studying the consequences of water scarcity. Essay I shows how lacking groundwater access increases incidences of communal violence. This is the first study on armed conflict that combines data on groundwater, surface water, and precipitation. Essay II analyzes spatial spillover processes of conflict-inducing factors. The study introduces a theoretical framework explaining spillover dynamics of communal conflict. Furthermore, the analysis shows that drought explains violence not locally but through wider neighborhood exposure. Essay III suggests drought-prone regions could be harbingers for water cooperation even in places with a history of violence. This research is also the first to analyze water cooperation at the sub-national level, thereby providing more detailed insights into peaceful hydropolitics. Essay IV shifts to the individual level. Studying the effect of exposure to water scarcity on altruism, the essay contributes to our understanding of microdynamics in conflict and adds to social psychological research on altruism.In sum, the dissertation makes four broader contributions. First, the findings suggest we need to look beyond resource scarcity as a cause for conflict. Instead we ought to study the potential of peaceful resource sharing and cooperation. Second, the dissertation addresses political actions by both individuals and groups, while also considering those in relation to government action. Addressing different group levels is key because conflict or cooperation dynamics address different spheres of action (individual, group, state). Third, the dissertation covers Africa, the Southern Mediterranean, and parts of the Middle East, thereby showing relevant findings for a larger geographic area than many previous studies. Lastly, the dissertation contributes to research on water issues by focusing on access to groundwater, which has been largely neglected in previous research. The findings can provide insights into our understanding of sustainable water management and environmental peacebuilding. Climate change challenges how we engage with water and, therefore, we must find more sustainable ways to use this resource.
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| 9. |
- Eck, Kristine, 1978-
(author)
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Raising Rebels : Participation and Recruitment in Civil War
- 2010
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why do some individuals choose to participate in rebellion, and what recruitment tactics can rebel groups use to affect this decision? These questions are central to the study of civil war because rebel groups must raise troops in order to challenge the government and to survive as an organization. Indeed, much of the civil war literature builds on participation as a key causal mechanism, yet it is rarely specified in theoretical or empirical models. The dissertation attempts to open this black box by tackling three sets of gaps in the existing literature; these relate to the assumptions made in most studies, the theoretical bases for understanding participation and recruitment, and the record of empirical testing. Essay I examines whether a particular type of recruitment practice, ethnic mobilization, is associated with higher levels of violence. The results show that when rebel groups mobilize along ethnic lines, there is a higher risk for intensified violence. Essay II employs new data on rebel troop size to study what factors affect participation in rebellion. The findings indicate that concerns over personal security rather than economic and social incentives best explain participation. Essay III addresses coerced recruitment, positing that conflict dynamics affect whether rebel groups shift from voluntary to coerced recruitment. Using micro-level data on the conflict in Nepal, the results show that the more losses rebels suffer on the battlefield, the greater the number of individuals they subsequently abduct. Finally, the Nepal case study presented in Essay IV suggests that indoctrination as a recruitment strategy was more important to rebel leaders than other facets of the insurgency. Taken together, this dissertation indicates that there is analytical leverage to be had by examining not only the individual’s decision to participate, but also the rebel group’s recruitment strategy, and that these rebel strategies are flexible and contingent on conflict dynamics.
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| 10. |
- Egnell, Robert, 1975-, et al.
(author)
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Implementing a Gender Perspective in Military Organisations and Operations : The Swedish Armed Forces Model
- 2012
-
Reports (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since UNSCR 1325 was passed, the Swedish Armed Forces have gone through an impressive process of change from limited early projects to an institutionalised gender organisation that has worked to mainstream a gender perspective, to conduct training, and to establish specific gender-related functions, such as Gender Field Advisors and Gender Focal Points. The Gender Field Advisors have during this process been deployed with Swedish and international units in conflicts around the world and have thereby gained important experience as well as continued to refine the Swedish approach to gender implementation in military operations. The latest development has been the establishment of the Nordic Centre for Gender in Military Operations, which will seek to function as a platform for continued implementation of a gender perspective in both Sweden and abroad.The purpose of this report is to increase the understanding of these organisational processes, the driving factors and roadblocks within the armed forces, the activities conducted in the field and their impact at home and in the area of operations is essential to the continuing implementation of UNSCR 1325 and the implementation of a gender perspective more broadly. This understanding has the potential to provide support and lessons for similar processes in the armed forces of other countries and even other contexts.
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| 11. |
- Elfversson, Emma, 1983-
(author)
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Central Politics and Local Peacemaking : The Conditions for Peace after Communal Conflict
- 2017
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Under what conditions can peace be established after violent communal conflict? This question has received limited research attention to date, despite the fact that communal conflicts kill thousands of people each year and often severely disrupt local livelihoods. This dissertation analyzes how political dynamics affect prospects for peace after communal conflict. It does so by studying the role of the central government, local state and non-state actors, and the interactions between these actors and the communal groups that are engaged in armed conflict. A particular focus is on the role of political bias, in the sense that central government actors have ties to one side in the conflict or strategic interests in the conflict issue. The central claim is that political bias shapes government strategies in the face of conflict, and influences the conflict parties’ strategic calculations and ability to overcome mistrust and engage in conflict resolution. To assess these arguments, the dissertation strategically employs different research methods to develop and test theoretical arguments in four individual essays. Two of the essays rely on novel data to undertake the first cross-national large-N studies of government intervention in communal conflict and how it affects the risk of conflict recurrence. Essay I finds that conflicts that are located in an economically important area, revolve around land and authority, or involve groups with ethnic ties to central rulers are more likely to prompt military intervention by the government. Essay II finds that ethnic ties, in turn, condition the impact that government intervention has on the risk of conflict recurrence. The other two essays are based on systematic analysis of qualitative sources, including unique and extensive interview material collected during several field trips to Kenya. Essay III finds that government bias makes it more difficult for the conflict parties to resolve their conflict through peace agreements. Essay IV finds that by engaging in governance roles otherwise associated with the state, non-state actors can become successful local peacemakers. Taken together, the essays make important contributions by developing, assessing and refining theories concerning the prospects for communal conflict resolution.
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| 12. |
- Engberg, Katarina, 1950-
(author)
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The EU´s Collective Use of Force : Exploring the Factors behind its First Military Operations
- 2011
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The EU has since 2003 carried out six military operations. This thesis seeks to determine the circumstances under which the EU will, or will not, undertake military operations. It does so through the study of two main cases of EU military operations: the case when an operation was planned in the Lebanon war 2006 but did not occur, and the positive case of EUFOR RD Congo that same year which did occur. Three additional cases are presented. An analytical tool built on the techniques of defence planning and concepts derived from the scholarly literature is applied to the cases for the purpose of identifying the main driving and inhibiting factors behind the operations. The functional theme of the use of force and the organizational theme of the multilateralisation of intervention serve as the main scholarly concepts. The interaction between the intervener and the local actors, as well as between political and resource factors, is introduced in order to create an integrated framework for the analysis of the dynamics at play in the EU’s use of force. The limitations to the "jus bellum" tradition is noted in the analysis of the EU´s operations that have situated themselves in a low-to-middle bandwidth in terms of interests and risks at stake. Among the findings, the growing importance of local actors in shaping the room for the EU´s deployment of military force stands out, as do resource constraints, in the EU´s case primarily in the form of its limited command and control structures but also through the overstretch of the global pool of expeditionary forces felt around 2006. As seen from the organizational perspective, the EU´s first military operations can best be understood in the context of the increasing role of regional security providers in an unofficial division of labour with regard to the multilateralisation of intervention.
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| 13. |
- Fjelde, Hanne, 1978-
(author)
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Sins of Omission and Commission : The Quality of Government and Civil Conflict
- 2009
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Is the risk of civil conflict related to the quality of government? This dissertation contributes to the quantitative research on this topic. First, it provides a more nuanced account of the role of the government in influencing the risk of civil conflict. In doing so, the dissertation bridges a gap between the quantitative literature, which primarily focuses on types of regimes, and the qualitative literature, which emphasizes variations in how political authority is exercised within these institutions. Second, the dissertation introduces novel measures of the quality of government, and tests their association with civil peace across countries, over time. The dissertation consists of an introductory chapter and four separate essays. Essay I examines the risk of conflict across different types of authoritarian regimes. The statistical results suggest that single-party regimes have a lower risk of civil conflict than military and multi-party authoritarian regimes. The finding is attributed to the high capacity for coercion and co-optation within single-party institutions. Essay II studies whether cross-national variations in the occurrence of civil conflict are due to differences in the quality of government. The essay finds that governments that are not able to carry through such basic governing tasks as protecting property rights and providing public goods, render themselves vulnerable to civil conflict. The focus of Essay III is on patronage politics, meaning that rulers rely on the distribution of private goods to retain the support necessary to stay in power. The statistical results suggest that patronage politics per se increase the risk of conflict. The conflict-inducing effect is mediated by large oil-wealth, however, because the government can use the wealth strategically to buy off opposition. Essay IV argues that patronage politics can also lead to violent conflict between groups. The results from a statistical analysis, based on unique sub-national data on inter-group conflict in Nigeria, are consistent with this argument. Taken together, the findings of this dissertation suggest that both the form and degree of government have a significant influence on the risk of civil conflict.
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| 14. |
- Forsberg, Erika, 1976-
(author)
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Neighbors at Risk : A Quantitative Study of Civil War Contagion
- 2009
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- While previous research shows that civil wars can spread to neighboring states, we do not know why certain neighbors are more at risk than others. To address this research gap, this dissertation proposes a contagion process approach that can identify the most likely targets of contagion effects from an ongoing conflict. Using data with global coverage, theoretical expectations about why and where civil wars would have contagion effects, are examined in a series of statistical analyses. Paper I argues and empirically supports that a country is more susceptible to contagion effects when it is characterized by ethnic polarization, where few ethnic groups form a delicate balance. Paper II argues and provides evidence that the involvement in conflict by an ethnic group in one country increases the likelihood of ethnic conflict erupting in a neighboring country that shares the same ethnic group. Paper III suggests and finds support that the arrival and long-term hosting of refugees from states in civil conflict make host states more likely to experience civil conflict. Paper IV examines the common notion that the granting of autonomy or independence to separatist groups may spur other ethnic groups to violently pursue similar demands, starting off a domino effect. Using new global data on such territorial concessions, the analysis does not support this version of the “domino theory,” which is popular among policy-makers. In sum, this dissertation contributes by demonstrating the usefulness of the contagion process approach. It offers a more comprehensive view of contagion among neighbors, and as such is able to specify arguments and intuitions in previous research.
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| 15. |
- Fox, Mary-Jane
(author)
-
Political Culture in Somalia : Tracing Paths to Peace and Conflict
- 2000
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The purpose of this dissertation is to apply the political culture concept to and then examine its historical implications for the variant conditions of peace and conflict in contemporary Somalia. Within peace and conflict research, political culture is a concept which has not been examined as a possible contributing factor to peace or conflict, and part of this is due to a restricted understanding of it. By relying on existing literature in the field (Diamond, Eckstein, Pye) to expand this concept, it is then applied to the case of Somalia, which currently is divided into three separate entities with three distinct outcomes. These outcomes are observable as the unrecognized state of Somaliland in the northwest, the autonomous Puntland State of Somalia in the northeast, and the southern region of Somalia, particularly the Mogadishu area. The former two are relatively peaceful, economically growing and centrally ruled polities, while the latter region experiences chronic violent conflict, economic uncertainty, and warlord politics. These three distinct outcomes suggest varying political culture legacies. Indicators for the concept are established by utilizing political culture "themes" which have been observed in the relevant literature. Beginning in the early 1800s, a longitudinal study of the development of separate trends in political culture in Somalia is undertaken. Distinct regional trends in political culture can be detected as far back in time as the precolonial period in the early 1800s, and these trends only become stronger during the colonial era, when Great Britain established itself as a protectorate in the northwest and Italy attempted to colonize the south and establish control over the northeast. The more positive trends on the northern coastal area appear to have been facilitated by Britain's relative disinterest in conquest and colonization of the area, and the less positive trends in the south were exacerbated by the harsh pratices of Italian colonization and Fascist ideology. With few breaks in these disparate trends over time, and these trends also carrying through to the present, it is suggested that contemporary differences between the regions are at least partly explained by their political culture legacies. Although this does not nullify any contemporary explanations which have been forwarded, it supplements and informs them. This dissertation suggests that in order to understand contemporary peace and conflict or offer prescriptions for prolonged conflict, it is important to identify and recognize the nature of and how deeply rooted these trends of peace and conflict actually are.
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| 16. |
- Hall, Jonathan, 1979-
(author)
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Migration and Perceptions of War : Simultaneous Surveys in Countries of Origin and Settlement
- 2013
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation contributes to post-war public opinion research by examining the perceptions of migrants – the gastarbeiter, the refugee, the family reunited after war – and the local population in comparative perspective. Existing surveys of post-war populations are typically conducted in a single country affected by war. However, particularly following forced expulsion and campaigns of ethnic cleansing substantial portions of national communities affected by conflict no longer live within the boundaries of the state. Current research may therefore overlook important populations as well as contextual factors that shape post-war attitudes.I help to address this problem by examining three widely held assumptions in the literature: that migrants hold more conflictive attitudes than the local population after war; that assimilation in settlement countries leads migrants to hold more peaceful attitudes; and that traumatic experiences lead migrants to hold more conflictive attitudes. These claims are largely based on theoretical accounts, case studies that suffer from selection bias and quantitative results that have proven unstable. By contrast, I examine new micro-level data: two large-scale surveys conducted simultaneously in post-war Bosnia and Sweden as a settlement country. Sweden’s choice to grant permanent residency in toto to refugees from the Bosnian War in 1993 resulted in the vast majority remaining settled in Sweden. As a result, the population of ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden is arguably more representative than in other comparable settlement country contexts.To explain differences among ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden and between these migrants and the local population in Bosnia, I connect social-psychological processes that help meet individuals’ basic psychological needs. These include: belief formation in the context of war; acculturation strategies in settlement countries; the development of nostalgic memories; and coping with traumatic experiences. The findings shed light on largely misunderstood processes. Under certain conditions, migration may provide an exit from detrimental wartime and post-war settings that produce and sustain conflictive societal beliefs after war. At the same time, the migration context may provide a richer set of socioeconomic and psychological resources for coping, offsetting the need to rely on conflictive beliefs as a way of dealing with the conflict crisis.
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| 17. |
- Hatz, Sophia, Dr, 1985-
(author)
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Coercion and its Effects : Evidence from the Israel-Palestine Conflict
- 2019
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Counterinsurgency, state repression and other forms of coercion have multiple adverse effects. Although a state’s use of threats and force should deter an opposition group, these measures often stimulate resistance. And although state-led coercion aims to influence an opposition group, coercive practices have social, economic and political consequences for civilians. This dissertation studies the efficacy and effects of coercive policies in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict. The four composite essays investigate the impact of Israel’s practice of house demolition and construction of a separation barrier on Palestinians’ conflict preferences and use of violence, as well as the broader consequences of these policies for Palestinian communities. Essay I questions the conventional wisdom that the selective targeting of militants can be an effective counterinsurgency strategy. Through a survey of Palestinians, it demonstrates that house demolition can generate opposition to peace when it is perceived as indiscriminate in its targeting, even if it is selective by design. Essay II distinguishes between the mechanisms of collective threat and personal fear in state repression. In a longitudinal study of administrative demolition orders, it finds that orders issued against communal structures increase preferences for violence and militant political parties, suggesting that collective threats backfire. Essay III quantifies the economic consequences of counterinsurgency by measuring the separation barrier’s impact on Palestinian employment and wages. It further shows that this economic impact increases the rate of Israeli conflict fatalities, demonstrating that economic consequences of coercion can stimulate violent resistance. Essay IV conceptualises a state’s separation and exclusion of particular population groups as a general phenomenon and form of state repression. It draws on historical cases worldwide and presents the enclosure of Palestinian communities in special zones of the separation barrier as a contemporary example. The essays are empirical studies which use survey methods, quantitative analysis, principles of experimental design, qualitative sources and field work as a basis for description and explanation. As a whole, the dissertation contributes to the study of coercion by calling attention to understudied forms of coercion and identifying particular mechanisms by which threats and force can result in adverse effects.
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| 18. |
- Holmberg, Björn
(author)
-
Passing the open windows : A quantitative and qualitative approach to immediate military balance and escalation of protracted conflicts
- 1998
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation has a dual point of departure: first, the widely known concept of window of opportunity and its application in the study of international relations (IR) and, second, the notion among modern classical realists that states maximize their power and, hence, that windows of opportunity should increase the probability of escalation to war or escalation of a war.The focus is primarily on the effects of rapid power shifts in dyads of non-great powers experiencing protracted conflict. The questions asked are, Do military opportunities cause escalation of protracted conflicts, and if so, under what circumstances?Military opportunity is derived from window of opportunity and is argued to be a more precise and analytically useful concept. It is integrated into a theoretical model that specifies possible conditions for escalation and which distance the model from the simple realist approach. These conditions are deduced from the unitary rational actor approach and from organization theory.In a large-N application of the model, covering the period from 1945 to 1986, there is, as expected, little support for military opportunity as an explanatory variable for escalation. The findings are contrary to the expectations of political realism. The learning propositions also receive no support. Negative and positive learning do not decrease or increase the likelihood of escalation; however, there is support for the proposition that the degree of militarization prior to the military opportunity has a positive effect on the likelihood of a new escalation. Under these conditions, as many as one out of every three dyads experiences escalation.In the qualitative phase, India-Pakistan (1970-1971) and Iran-Iraq (1979-1988), two important cases supporting the large-N findings, are analyzed. The deductive chain of the rational unitary actor approach seems to have more to tell than organization theory does. Furthermore, the analysis strengthens the conclusions from the large-N study.In sum, military opportunity is not generally associated with escalation. Only when the conflicts are militarized and, consequently, when the level of threat towards the state is high, may military opportunity lead to escalation.
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| 19. |
- Hultman, Lisa, 1978-
(author)
-
Targeting the Unarmed : Strategic Rebel Violence in Civil War
- 2008
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Rebel attacks on civilians constitute one of the gravest threats to human security in contemporary armed conflicts. But why do rebel groups kill civilians? The dissertation approaches this question from a strategic perspective, trying to understand when and why rebel groups are likely to target civilians as a conflict strategy. It combines quantitative studies using global data on rebel group violence with a case study of the civil war in Mozambique. The overall argument is that rebel groups target civilians as a way of improving their bargaining position in the war relative to the government. The dissertation consists of an introduction, which situates the study in a wider context, and four papers that all deal with different aspects of the overall research question. Paper I introduces new data on one-sided violence against civilians, presenting trends over time and comparing types of actors and conflicts. Paper II argues that democratic governments are particularly vulnerable to rebel attacks on civilians, since they are dependent on the population. Corroborating this claim, statistical evidence shows that rebels indeed kill more civilians when fighting a democratic government. Paper III argues that rebels target civilians more when losing on the battlefield, as a method of raising the costs for the government to continue fighting. A statistical analysis employing monthly data on battle outcomes and rebel violence, supports this argument. Paper IV takes a closer look at the case of Mozambique, arguing that the rebel group Renamo used large-scale violence in areas dominated by government constituents as a means for hurting the government. Taken together, these findings suggest that violence against civilians should be understood as a strategy, rather than a consequence, of war.
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| 20. |
- Höglund, Kristine, 1974-
(author)
-
Violence in the Midst of Peace Negotiations : Cases from Guatemala, Northern Ireland, South Africa and Sri Lanka
- 2004
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why do peace talks fall apart as a result of violence? The present study addresses the question of why and how violence sometimes changes the dynamics of peace negotiation processes. Incidents of violence may produce friction between and within parties. As a result, violence can make parties reluctant to continue peace negotiations if it increases the risk and fears of reaching a peace agreement with the enemy. Twelve high-profile incidents of violence, including political assassinations, massacres, and bomb explosions, are analysed with the aim of probing the causal patterns that emerge in the aftermath of violence. Cases are selected from four intra-state negotiation processes: Guatemala, Northern Ireland, South Africa, and Sri Lanka. The patterns of actions and responses, indicate that violence often symbolises a breach of faith between the parties. This is a main reason why violence is sometimes followed by a crisis. In addition, low intra-party cohesion regarding the peace negotiations, constrains the efforts of the decision makers to pursue peace. The study underlines the relationship between the parties, within each party, and the interaction between the two levels of analysis. The research further suggests that the destructive effect of violence can be counteracted by mutual certainty about where the negotiation process is heading, by confidence-building measures by the parties themselves, and through actions by third party mediators and monitors. Peace negotiations are also driven forward by the fears the parties have about continued armed conflict, a fear that commonly is exacerbated by the continued existence of violence.
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| 21. |
- Ikegami-Andersson, Masako
(author)
-
Military technology and US-Japan security relations : A study of three cases of military R&D collaboration, 1983-1998
- 1998
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Since the end of the Cold War, the same clear threats do not exist, and the reduction of military spending has become a world-wide trend in the 1990s. Military technology, which used to be perceived as a crucial national security concern, is now subject to severe financial constraints and more strict assessment. Under these new circumstances, the dynamics of weapon development and the implications of military technology have also changed. R&D costs soared and investment in development of advanced weapon systems became more risky, both technologically and financially. The rapid advancement of technology broadens the interfaces between military and civilian technology. Such changes are likely to enhance international collaboration in military R&D and what this study calls 'commercialization of military technology'. This study deals with military R&D processes in a broad context which result in certain weapon development projects as an outcome of such changes.This study examines how and why international collaboration in military technology has changed after the Cold War, addressing the following questions. (1) Is military R&D increasingly carried out on the basis of inter-state cooperation? If so, why and how is it taking place? (2) How do the increasing importance and utilization of dual-use technology influence the development of weapon systems? (3) How does this new trend in military R&D (i.e., internationalization and commercialization) affect the existing arms dynamics which have been based on the national security concept? (4) What kinds of impact do the post-Cold War change in threat perceptions have on weapon development? (5) How do features of each military R&D programme differ in the creation of the projects and the process of R&D collaboration, considered in the broader context of the process? The study examines these questions by analysing three cases of military R&D collaboration between the United States and Japan: collaboration in SDI research, the FS-X/F-2 fighter support co-development project, and technological research collaboration in theater missile defence (TMD). A comparative analysis of these US-Japan collaboration projects illustrates middle- and long-term changes in military R&D trends before and after the Cold War. In addition, the cases will show how military R&D collaboration was influenced by other factors such as US-Japan economic and political relations and technological trends.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Jarstad, Anna, 1966-
(author)
-
Changing the Game : Consociational Theory and Ethnic Quotas in Cyprus and New Zealand
- 2001
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This study addresses the question of what makes ethnic quota systems in parliament work to manage ethnopolitical violence. By a reconstruction of Arend Lijphart’s theory on consociationalism, two causal mechanisms are identified. The first mechanism levels the power balance of contending groups by permanent inclusion in parliament. The second mechanism reduces the number of conflict issues to be agreed on jointly, by decentralization of decision-making to the respective ethnic groups. According to the logic of consociationalism, ethnic quotas in parliament are expected to prevent violence by levelling the power balance in parliament.The study includes an investigation of the ethnic quota systems of the world. Two cases which challenge Lijphart’s theory in two different ways, are selected for in-depth analysis. Contrary to the predictions of consociational theory, Cyprus as a typical consociational case has failed in conflict management, whereas New Zealand as the prime example of non-consociational cases has succeeded in promoting peace.The essence of consociational theory is reconstructed in a two-player game which is applied to the cases of ethnic relations in Cyprus and New Zealand. The conclusion is that ethnic quotas can contribute to changes in the actor’s ranking order of preferences by upgrading the value of cooperation. Only under the condition that the actors appreciate the mutual benefits of such cooperation, can ethnic quotas contribute to viable peace.
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| 24. |
- Johansson, Karin
(author)
-
Raising the Costs or Lowering the Bar : International influences on conflict-related sexual violence
- 2022
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation contributes to the growing literature on conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV). More specifically, the four essays it contains advance our understanding of CRSV by shedding light on the intersection between international involvement and CRSV perpetrated by states and rebel groups engaged in civil war. Despite the increased attention to CRSV among international policy-makers, this intersection has been examined only sparsely within the scholarship on CRSV. Essays I, II, and III address the overarching question of how different types of international involvement influence the level of CRSV. Essay I offers a global study of the effect of third-party military involvement on levels of CRSV. It argues that shifts in the balance of power following external involvement tend to aggravate the situation with regard to CRSV, and it finds indicative support for this. Essay II examines the capacity of peacekeeping missions to mitigate CRSV. It finds that the effectiveness of peacekeeping hinges on the degree of internal control exercised by states and rebel groups. Essay III looks beyond military involvement and focuses on the political power of condemnation. Using newly collected data on condemnations of sexual violence issued by the United Nations (UN) human-rights body between 1987 and 2014, the study tests the extent to which governments that perpetrate CRSV can be influenced by international condemnation. In parallel, the study examines the power of domestic outrage expressed through protests. The findings have important policy implications: Domestic protests are associated with an escalation of CRSV by states. International condemnation correlates with declines in CRSV in recent years (2008–2014), but not historically. International involvement – whether multilateral or unilateral – only materialises if fellow states so decide. Essay IV thus focuses on the willingness of states to take action against CRSV perpetrated by other states. By examining bilateral condemnations of sexual violence issued within the UN Universal Periodic Review, this essay sheds light on the diplomatic relationships and political interests that shape the (un)willingness of individual states to condemn CRSV. In sum, this dissertation makes both theoretical and empirical contributions to the research on CRSV, as well as to the scholarship on international involvement in civil wars more broadly.
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| 25. |
- Karlborg, Lisa, 1984-
(author)
-
Enforcing Legitimacy : Perspectives on the Relationship between Intervening Armed Forces and the Local Population in Afghanistan
- 2015
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Bolstering local perceptions of legitimacy in armed intervention has emerged as an important feature of increasingly complex international peace and statebuilding efforts. Yet, previous research has only begun to explore what local legitimacy entails to those involved in, and affected by, armed intervention. This dissertation advances an understanding of local legitimacy as a perception-based, relational phenomenon. Through this lens, it examines armed intervention in Afghanistan (2001-2014). In particular, this dissertation studies how the relationship between Afghan citizens and intervening armed forces interacts with, and shapes, perspectives on local legitimacy held by the main 'interveners' and those 'intervened upon'. This dissertation consists of an introduction, which situates the study in a wider context, and four essays. Beginning with the organizational perspectives of the main intervening actors in Afghanistan, Essay I finds that the UN and NATO initially conceptualized problems of local legitimacy as principally the consequence of a fragile Afghan state, and not as failings of the intervention. When negative dimensions of intervention became increasingly recognized, principal responsibility for the legitimacy process shifted away from intervening authorities and onto the Afghan state. Similarly, Essay II shows how key U.S. military doctrine, over time, reconceptualized the formal duty of intervening forces in the local legitimacy process, ultimately considering it contingent on, and subordinate to, the will and capabilities of host-state authorities and the local population. Turning thereafter to firsthand accounts from the field, Essay III and Essay IV together contrast personal perspectives on the intervention held by U.S. Army Officers and Afghan citizens. Essay III finds that personal experiences of noncombat contact with Afghans reinforced the Officers' sense of duty toward the local population. Conversely, Essay IV suggests that the local legitimacy of intervening forces became increasingly contested among Afghans, due largely to the perceived intensification of foreign intrusion on 'everyday' life. Taken together, the findings of this dissertation lay the foundation for the development of a new concept, the host-citizen contract. In so doing, it provides a social contract framework to better understand the complex dynamics of local legitimacy in Afghanistan, and beyond.
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| 26. |
- Karlén, Niklas, 1985-
(author)
-
Sponsors of War : State Support for Rebel Groups in Civil Conflicts
- 2017
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Many civil wars are illustrative of wider international tensions and connections that transcend state borders. States often intervene to influence the trajectory and outcome of civil conflicts by providing external support to warring parties. This assistance ranges from direct military intervention to the provision of weapons, training, funds, safe havens, intelligence, logistics and other critical resources. This dissertation contains four individual essays that each seeks to advance our knowledge of state support to rebel movements. The first essays (I and II) add to our understanding of how external state support influences conflict dynamics while the latter (III and IV) begin to unpack the political decision-making process behind decisions that alter the original support commitment. Essay I evaluates whether state support to rebels increases the probability of civil war negotiations being initiated. The findings question a widespread belief among policymakers that support can foster negotiations. Essay II explores if external support influences the risk of conflict recurrence. It finds that state support to rebels can increase the risk of conflict recurrence in the short-term while there is no equivalent effect of support provided to governments. Essay III is the first global analysis of support termination and it thereby opens up an entirely new research field. The results suggest that the causes related to the initiation of support and its termination are largely distinct while the transition from the Cold War and the absence of ethnic kinship ties offer some insights into when states are more likely to terminate support. Essay IV unpacks the political decision-making process of the United States’ support to the armed opposition in Nicaragua in the 1980s and in Syria in the 2010s. The results indicate that adverse feedback functions as a trigger for increasing previous commitments as long as policy failure can be attributed to external actors, while reduced support is often a result of attributing failure to the state sponsor’s own actions. Taken together, the essays make significant contributions to advance our understanding of biased third-party interventions, conflict recurrence, civil war negotiations, foreign policy decision-making and state sponsorship of terrorism.
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| 27. |
- Kim, Kyungmee
(author)
-
Civil Resistance in the Shadow of War : Explaining popular mobilization against dams in Myanmar
- 2021
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why do some conflict-affected communities collectively resist dam-building while others do not? State-backed development projects such as hydropower dams have been the subject of societal resistance in countries around the world. In armed conflict areas, local populations who organize nonviolent resistance through collective action against these high-impact projects face additional challenges, such as being targeted for violence and coercion by the authorities. Some of these communities succeed in mobilizing widespread, long-term resistance, but others do not. This dissertation investigates this puzzle by focusing on Kachin, Karen, and Ta’ang minority communities in Myanmar affected, respectively, by the planned Myitsone, Hatgyi, and Shweli dams. Empirical material collected during 13 months of fieldwork in Myanmar reveals that the social-psychological legacies of armed conflict between the central government and minority groups have shaped the dam-opposition campaigns’ collective responses. The variation in community reactions to planned dam projects can be explained by the varying salience and boundaries of collective identities, derived largely from the population’s conflict experiences. Identity formation in conflict-affected societies was influenced by the population’s conflict experiences, collective memories, and trauma passed on between generations. Collective victimhood, in particular, was found to be embedded in identity, which was instrumental for forming a cognitive-affective repertoire for the local population who recognized the dam as collective harm that must be faced through community solidarity. Conflict dynamics and a community’s organizational capacity further affected the patterns of social mobilization and spread of resistance. The research findings contribute to a better understanding of civil resistance in armed conflict areas by broadening the scope of threats that civilian populations face in conflict settings. It conceptualizes negative social and environmental impacts of dams and other state interventions as a cause of civil resistance. This research also highlights the linkage between armed conflict and social mobilization through the shared experiences of local communities. The findings have policy implications as they suggest the importance of a cautionary approach when promoting development in post-conflict environments. The results also imply that community-level peacebuilding should seriously engage with local communities in efforts to better understand the legacies of war and shared identity.
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| 28. |
- Kostic, Roland, 1975-
(author)
-
Ambivalent Peace : External Peacebuilding, Threatened Identity and Reconciliation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 2007
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This study expands the enquiry of external efforts to build peace after an ethnic war by investigating the effects these efforts may have on societal security and reconciliation among groups in a host society. To achieve this, a theoretical framework, combining theories on the character of external peacebuilding, and theories on societal security and reconciliation, was devised and applied to the case of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The contemporary model of peacebuilding is conceptualised and studied in terms of its identity-building and state-building components. Further, the concept of societal security is used to explain the notion of threatened identity and its protection, and its relation to reconciliation, as the process of attitudinal change needed to develop a minimum of mutual acceptance between former adversaries. The empirical part is based on qualitative interviews with members of the political elite, and a sociological survey undertaken among ordinary citizens. The attitudes of 22 politicians from 10 political parties, as well as the attitudes of 2,500 interviewees from different parts of the country, are analysed with the aim of probing the theoretical construct. The theoretical and methodological approach proved useful in uncovering pertinent aspects of an ambivalent peace process. Both interviews and survey data show that ethnonational groups continue to threaten each other by competing demand for ethnic rights and security, while external nation-building measures further exacerbate this state of societal insecurity. As a result, ethnonational identities remain highly mobilised and play an important role in the lives of ordinary people and politicians alike. This situation, in which each community is focused on protecting its own identity, including a particular view of the causes and character of the recent war, rather than seeking a rapprochement with the former opponent, is a key characteristic of ambivalent peace. The results are important for both theories of peacebuilding and their implementation, and call for a reassessment of current models.
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| 29. |
- Krampe, Florian, 1980-
(author)
-
Building Sustainable Peace : Understanding the Linkages between Social, Political, and Ecological Processes in Post-War Countries
- 2016
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Post-war countries are among the most difficult policy arenas for international and domestic actors. The challenge is not only to stop violence and prevent violence from rekindling, but moreover to help countries reset their internal relations on a peaceful path. The indirect, long-term effects of wars further exaggerate this challenge. Many of these relate to political and social aspects of post-war countries. Lasting impressions of human rights abuses committed during wars continue to shape the relations among members of societies for decades to come. Both, socio-economic impacts and political impacts challenge the stability of post-war countries for many years. The challenges to public health have been found to be especially severe and affect disproportionately the civilian population of post-war countries. Environmental and climate change exposes post-war populations further to new risks, exaggerating the human costs of war long after active combat has ceased.These challenges are not new. The problem, however, is that in practice all these elements are simultaneously happening in today’s peacebuilding interventions. Yet, practitioners as well as researchers remain settled in a silo mentality, focusing only on one aspect at a time. As such they are unaware of the unintended consequences that their focus has on other important processes. The four essays that lie at the heart of this dissertation provide new insight into the linkages between the social, political and ecological processes in post-war societies and how the interactions of different groups of actors are shaping the prospects for peace.The argument drawn out in this dissertation is that to build peace we need to acknowledge and understand this long-term interplay of social, political, and ecological processes in post-war countries. It will be crucial to understand the potential and dynamics of natural resources and environmental issues in this context. As the essays in this dissertation show, the interactions of these processes divisively shape the post-war landscape. It is therefore essential to build a peace that is ecologically sensitive, while equally socially and politically relevant and desirable. I call this sustainable peace.
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| 30. |
- Kreutz, Joakim, 1973-
(author)
-
Dismantling the Conflict Trap : Essays on Civil War Resolution and Relapse
- 2012
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Countries that have experienced civil war suffer a greater risk for new conflict than countries with no prior history of civil war. This empirical finding has been called a conflict trap where the legacy of previous war - unsolved issues, indecisive outcomes, and destruction – leads to renewed fighting. Yet, countries like Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, and Mozambique have managed to overcome decade-long conflicts without relapse. This dissertation addresses this empirical puzzle by seeking to dismantle the conflict trap and look at microlevel explanations for civil war resolution and relapse. It adds to existing scholarship in three ways: first, by using disaggregated empirics on war termination and how fighting resumes; second, by exploring government agency in conflict processes; and third, by disaggregating rebel organizations. Essay I present original data on the start and end dates and means of termination for all armed conflicts, 1946-2005. Contrary to previous work, this data reveal that wars does not always end through victory or peace agreement, but commonly end under unclear circumstances. Essay II addresses how developments exogenous to the conflict influence governments’ decision to engage in a peace process. The results show that after natural disasters when state resources need to be allocated towards disaster relief, governments are more willing to negotiate and conclude ceasefires with insurgents. Essay III focuses on the post-conflict society, and posits that security concerns among former war participants will push them towards remobilizing into rebellion. The findings indicate that if ex-belligerent elite’s security is compromised, the parties of the previous war will resume fighting, while insecurity among former rank-and-file leads to the formation of violent splinter rebel groups. Finally, Essay IV seeks to explain why governments sometimes launch offensives on former rebels in post-conflict countries. The results show that internal power struggles provide leaders with incentives to use force against domestic third parties to strengthen their position against intra-government rivals. Taken together, this dissertation demonstrates that there is analytical leverage to be had by disaggregating the processes of violence in civil war and post-conflict societies, as well as the actors involved – both the government and rebel sides.
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| 31. |
- Käihkö, Ilmari
(author)
-
Bush Generals and Small Boy Battalions : Military Cohesion in Liberia and Beyond
- 2016
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- All organizations involved in war are concerned with military cohesion. Yet previous studies have only investigated cohesion in a very narrow manner, focusing almost solely on Western state militaries or on micro-level explanations. This dissertation argues for the need to broaden this perspective. It focuses on three classic sources of cohesion – coercion, compensation and constructs (such as identity and ideology) – and investigates their relevance in the Second Liberian Civil War (1999-2003). More specifically, this dissertation consists of an inquiry of how the conflict's three main military organizations – Charles Taylor’s Government of Liberia (GoL), the Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD) and Movement for Democracy in Liberia (MODEL) – drew on these three sources to foster cohesion. Based on thirteen months of ethnographic fieldwork with former combatants, this dissertation contains five parts: an introduction, which focuses on issues of theory and method, and four essays that investigate the three sources of cohesion in the three organizations. Essay I focuses on the LURD rebels, and provides an insider account of their strategy. It shows that even decentralized movements like the LURD can execute strategy, and contends that the LURD fought its fiercest battles not against the government, but to keep itself together. Essay II focuses on coercion, and counters the prevailing view of African rebels’ extensive use of coercion to keep themselves together. Since extreme coercion in particular remained illegitimate, its use would have decreased, rather than increased, cohesion. Essay III investigates the government militias to whom warfighting was subcontracted. In a context characterized by a weak state and fragmented social organization, compensation may have remained the only available source of cohesion. Essay IV investigates identities as sources of cohesion. It argues that while identities are a powerful cohesive source, they must be both created and maintained to remain relevant. Taken together, this dissertation argues for a more comprehensive approach to the investigation of cohesion, and one that also takes into account mezzo- and macro-level factors.
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| 32. |
- Larsson Gebre-Medhin, David, 1985-
(author)
-
Compliance with Territorial Awards : Territorial Concessions, Domestic Constraints, and International Legal Rulings
- 2020
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Under what conditions do states engaged in interstate territorial disputes comply with unfavorable international legal awards? Interstate territorial disputes have proven to be a major threat to international peace and security. Of the available options for the peaceful resolution of territorial claims, legal dispute resolution has proven to be very effective, as states overwhelmingly comply with international awards. However, despite the relevance of legal dispute resolution, we have limited knowledge about it, especially concerning how and when states choose to comply with unfavorable legal rulings. This dissertation examines the extent to which one of the most influential approaches to legal dispute resolution – domestic-constraints theory – is able to explain the compliance behavior of states which have “lost in court.” Extant research has suggested that international legal processes facilitate the reduction of domestic constraints on territorial concessions, enabling dispute resolution through compliance with international rulings. Yet no study so far has systematically traced whether legal processes indeed influence the domestic politics of territorial concession-making, or the extent to which compliance behavior is linked to domestic constraints. Employing a qualitative case-study design, this dissertation traces three implementation processes of awards that required salient territorial concessions. The cases examined are Israel, 1984–1989 (concerning the Taba dispute with Egypt); Nigeria, 1994–2008 (concerning the Bakassi dispute with Cameroon); and Ethiopia, 1998–2007 (concerning the Badme dispute with Eritrea). This study finds support for domestic-constraints theory as an explanation for compliance behavior. The findings show that domestic constraints pose a sufficient obstacle to compliance with territorial concessions, but that legal processes can facilitate attempts by governments to overcome such domestic obstacles, thereby enabling the implementation of legally ruled territorial losses. This study contributes to the research on territorial dispute resolution in particular by confirming and developing our understanding of how legal dispute resolution helps to solve high-salience territorial claims, specifically as a remedy for domestic obstacles to settlement. On a more general level, the results also speak to the ability of international law to influence state behavior in foreign relations.
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| 33. |
- Lilja, Jannie, 1978-
(author)
-
Disaggregating Dissent : The Challenges of Intra-Party Consolidation in Civil War and Peace Negotiations
- 2010
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Contemporary civil wars are often characterized not only by fighting between rebels and governments, but also by rebel violence against their own community members. In spite of repeated peace negotiations, many of these conflicts seem to go on endlessly. Such instances may reflect attempts or failures on the part of the non-state side to consolidate. To confront the government on the battle field or at the negotiation table, rebels need to become an effective fighting force as well as effective negotiators. So, what do rebels do to consolidate to wage war and negotiate peace? The dissertation approaches the question of rebel capacity by disaggregating the non-state side in civil war and in connection with peace talks. The dissertation offers a set of original case studies from three ethno-separatist conflicts: Sri Lanka, Indonesian Aceh, and Senegal. It combines qualitative methods with one study also containing basic regression analysis. The empirical analysis reveals that the risk perceptions, information asymmetries, and commitment issues that often mark the relationship between the state and non-state parties are also prevalent within the non-state party. The overall argument is that rebels’ consolidation of their capacity to fight and negotiate entails different processes. More specifically, it first specifies conditions under which rebels use violence against members of their own ethnic community as part of the war against the government by emphasizing the importance of timing, territorial control, and ethnic demographic concentration. Second, it explores and highlights the importance of the rich repertoire of non-violent methods which rebels employ to enhance their fighting capacity. Third, it draws attention to the significant role of social network structures on the non-state side by empirically examining these structures, and their relationship to civil war dynamics and peace negotiations. Fourth, it sheds new light on pre-negotiation and ripeness theory by specifying the elements on the non-state side that need to be mobilized for a peace settlement, and what mobilization measures are used at what time. By furthering an understanding of the non-state side in civil war and peace processes, the dissertation helps third parties to engage more constructively in peacemaking, and humanitarian and development assistance.
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| 34. |
- Lindberg Bromley, Sara, 1980-
(author)
-
Keeping Peace while Under Fire : The Causes, Characteristics and Consequences of Violence against Peacekeepers
- 2017
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Peacekeepers are widely viewed as being at growing risk of direct and deliberate violence. Attacks are recorded in many and diverse contexts, targeting interventions deployed by both the United Nations and other organisations. This dissertation seeks to advance the understanding of such violence, studying its causes, characteristics and consequences. The impact of deliberate violence against peacekeepers can be severe; it often extends past those immediately affected and impacts interveners’ ability to accomplish their aims. As a topic of scientific inquiry, however, violence against peacekeepers has only recently seen a growth in interest, and systematic study has so far been sparse. This dissertation makes a number of theoretical and empirical contributions to this emerging area of research. The dissertation contains four individual essays. To set the stage and provide foundations for further studies, Essay I specifies key concepts and maps the research field to date. It promotes a wider, and arguably more theoretically appropriate, conceptualisation of violence against peacekeepers than used in earlier studies. Essay II presents new, systematically collected event data on violence against UN and non-UN peacekeepers deployed to conflict-affected countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 1989 and 2009. Patterns from the data demonstrate that, while widely prevalent, violence against peacekeepers is not ubiquitous to peacekeeping and displays considerable variation within and across interventions. Drawing on this novel data, Essay III provides one of the first systematic studies on the time-varying determinants of rebel attacks on peacekeepers, showing its occurrence to be closely linked to rebel performance on the battlefield. Finally, Essay IV explores how operating in a challenging security environment can affect peacekeepers’ ability to perform core mission functions, drawing on the case of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA). The analysis illustrates how such an environment may expose and further constrain already limited capabilities and willingness for robust and armed action in UN peacekeeping operations. Taken together, the essays advance our understanding of the causes, characteristics and consequences of violence against peacekeepers.
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| 35. |
- Lindgren, Göran, 1948-
(author)
-
Studies in conflict economics and economic growth
- 2006
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- “Armaments and Economic Performance”. The literature on military expenditure (milex) is scrutinized with respect to five areas. Investment is reduced when milex increases. Most studies have found economic growth hindered by higher milex. No clear association between milex and employment is found. However, the same amount of other public expenditure creates more jobs. There is some evidence for milex as counter-cyclical instrument in the US. The result for studies if milex is used in electoral cycles in the US is contradictory. Disaggregated data are emphasized as a possible solution to get more definite results.“The Economic Costs of Civil Wars”. The empirical studies of the economic costs of internal armed conflicts are divided into accounting and modelling methods. Cost is seen as the difference between the counterfactual production without conflict and the actual production. The average economic cost of internal armed conflict is a 3.7% yearly reduction of GDP. There are large differences between the estimates. One of the reasons for pursuing such studies is to give improved basis for more cost-effective post-conflict reconstruction, which is better achieved with an accounting method.“War and Economic Performance – Different Data, Different Conclusions?” This article studies the importance of armed conflict for economic growth by replicating an earlier analysis with new data on conflicts. The basic model investigates how conflicts in 1960-1974 affect economic growth in 1975-1989. Koubi finds that “wars are conducive to higher growth”. Koubi’s finding is confirmed when different conflict data is used in a similar research design.“The Role of External Factors in Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Thailand and the Philippines 1950-1990”. Can differences in economic performance be explained by external factors? Both historical and regression analyses are utilised to answer the question. Three external factors are analysed: International trade, foreign direct investment, and external debt. In the regression analysis none of the external factors qualify as statistically significant. The historical analysis finds two external factors discriminating between the two countries. Thus, they might explain the differing growth rates of Thailand and the Philippines: Manufactured exports and external debt.
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| 36. |
- Lindgren, Mathilda, 1983-
(author)
-
Peacemaking Up Close : Explaining Mediator Styles of International Mediators
- 2016
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Scholarly work on international mediation suggests that how third parties mediate influences the resolution of armed conflicts. However, our understanding of what explains mediator style is limited. This dissertation addresses this gap by offering the first systematic study on explanations for mediator styles at the level of the individual. It explores the research question: what explains mediator styles of individuals mediating for peacemaking organizations in armed conflicts? Mediator style is studied as themes in goals and behaviors along two dimensions: directiveness and orientation. Directiveness covers a mediator's use of leverage and varies from non-directive to directive, while orientation covers a mediator's prioritized type of outcome and varies from relationship-oriented to settlement-oriented. The dissertation develops a theoretical framework on the effects of conflict context and mediator characteristics on mediator style. It formulates a set of theoretical expectations concerning how context in the form of conflict intensity, and characteristics such as the mediator's background profile and personality, influence mediator style. The framework is evaluated and developed based on the findings of a mixed-method design combining a survey experiment and 46 semi-structured in-depth interviews with a broad variety of IGO and NGO mediators. The results on context suggest that high-intensity conflicts make mediators on average more directive than low-intensity conflicts as a result of heightened humanitarian concerns. Furthermore, on characteristics, high-profile mediators are shown to be overall more settlement-oriented than low-profile mediators as a result of their views on conflict causes and mediator accountabilities. These findings are complemented with evidence for contingent relationships between conflict intensity, mediator personality and directiveness as well as conflict intensity, mediator profile and orientation. The study thus contributes with a refined understanding of the mediator styles of international mediators that both facilitates its further scholarly exploration and provides input to the practice of peacemaking.
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| 37. |
- Lonergan, Kate, 1988-
(author)
-
Roads to Repair : Extraordinary and Everyday Pathways to Reconciliation after Civil War
- 2023
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- How do societies emerging from civil war envision micro-level reconciliation across enduring relational divisions and conflict-related harms? This is a pressing question after civil war, which reshapes social processes and further entrenches societal divisions. Previous research seeks to address this question by documenting grassroots perspectives on reconciliation and highlighting the ways in which macro- and micro-level visions differ. This dissertation contributes to the literature by advancing an understanding of reconciliation as occurring both through extraordinary moments of repair between former adversaries and through everyday practices of relational repair embedded within daily life. The five essays which comprise this dissertation each investigate a different aspect of extraordinary and everyday reconciliation across multiple levels of analysis and in different empirical contexts. Essay I evaluates the impact of a time-limited contact-based reconciliation intervention in Sri Lanka, finding that participants’ already reconciled attitudes remain stable even as they become more aware of potential ingroup tensions arising from intergroup reconciliation. Essay II draws on in-depth interviews with participants in a truth and reconciliation commission in Sierra Leone to identify the specific process through which patrimonial modes of mobilization set unrealistic expectations of what the commission would provide. Essay III introduces an analytical framework to identify between whom and in what direction everyday reconciliation can occur. Essay IV applies the analytical framework to a novel dataset of everyday indicators of reconciliation collected in war-affected communities in Sri Lanka and finds that localities diverge in how they envision reconciliation within daily life. Essay V draws on in-depth interviews with Tamil citizens to understand how they envision everyday reconciliation with the state and the extent to which differing experiences of wartime order shape expectations of reconciliation. The dissertation reaches three broader conclusions of relevance to scholarship on postwar reconciliation. First, it demonstrates that greater conceptual attention to everyday reconciliation reveals a more dynamic understanding of the ways in which relational divisions can be bridged, including ways in which elite and grassroots actors and extraordinary and everyday processes interact. Second, the dissertation demonstrates that perspectives on reconciliation vary across grassroots actors within a country, highlighting the need for more comparative micro-level analysis. Finally, by attending to multi-level engagement in different empirical contexts the dissertation emphasizes the need to consider macro-level context in our understanding of micro-level reconciliation. Taken together, the essays in this dissertation shed light on the complex challenges of reconciliation and social repair after civil war.
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| 38. |
- Melander, Erik
(author)
-
Anarchy within : The security dilemma between ethnic groups in emerging anarchy
- 1999
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This is a study of the Security Dilemma between ethnic groups in conflict. The essence of the Security Dilemma is that vulnerable and fearful actors through efforts to enhance their own security undermine the security of others. This causal mechanism is examined at the theoretical level with the help of a game model.The explanatory power of the Security Dilemma as a cause of large-scale ethnic warfare and cleansing is corroborated in a statistical test. Separatist grievances are used to indicate low utility for the status quo, and are found to increase the risk of large-scale ethnic violence. Democracy is assumed to be associated with lower levels of fear, and is found to reduce the risk of large-scale violence. Ethnoterritorial dominance reflects whether the ethnic groups in conflict live separated or intermingled. First-strike advantages are assumed to be greater in areas of intermingled populations. As predicted, intermingled populations are found to be associated with an increased risk of large-scale violence.The Security Dilemma is examined in more detail in two case-studies of the 1992 Bosnian wars. Based on these case-studies thoughts are presented on how the theory can be developed to capture the interplay between the elites at the strategic level and grassroots at the local level. Finally, ways of negating the Security Dilemma between ethnic groups are briefly discussed.In sum, the results indicate that the Security Dilemma is highly relevant for understanding the causes of large-scale ethnic violence.
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| 39. |
- Muvumba Sellström, Angela, 1973-
(author)
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Stronger than Justice : Armed Group Impunity for Sexual Violence
- 2015
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- What conditions lead to confidence among civil war combatants that they will not face accountability for perpetrating sexual violence? This study investigates the causes of impunity for sexual violence among armed actors. It develops a theoretical framework which identifies three explanations for armed group impunity for sexual violence, namely (1) flawed prohibitions inside an armed group; (2) negligent enforcement by its authorities; and (3) pardons in the form of amnesties during the peace process. Adopting a two-pronged approach, the study first explores the associations between amnesties arising from concluding peace agreements and post-settlement levels of sexual violence in Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and South Africa. A small-scale, events-based dataset of sexual violence by governments and rebel groups in the first three years after war was constructed. The second and main part of the study is a comparison between two rebel groups in Burundi’s civil war (1994-2008), CNDD-FDD (National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for the Defence of Democracy) and Palipehutu-FNL (Palipehutu-Forces for National Liberation) and their practices of prohibition and punishment of wartime sexual violence, taking into account also the possible influence of amnesties. Based on original data from 19 focus groups of ex-combatants from these rebel organisations, it is found that flawed prohibitions and negligent authorities are the main explanations for armed group impunity. The findings do not support amnesties as a cause of armed group impunity for sexual violence. Moreover, additional findings suggest that accountability for sexual violence is triggered by dependency on civilian support, while impunity is facilitated by an armed group’s ability to secure recruits, material and other resources without the help of local communities.
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| 40. |
- Nilsson, Desirée
(author)
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In the Shadow of Settlement : Multiple Rebel Groups and Precarious Peace
- 2006
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- How can durable peace be achieved in the wake of a civil war settlement? Previous quantitative research on this topic has, so far, mainly focused on two parties – the government and the opposition – thereby failing to consider the complexity that may arise in conflicts where the rebel side involves several groups. This dissertation addresses this gap in the study of durable peace. It demonstrates theoretically and empirically that three aspects are of significance for lasting peace: (1) the number of warring parties, (2) the inclusion of rebel groups in peace agreements, and (3) the military strength of the signatories. The study applies a bargaining perspective, where uncertainty about the parties’ capability and resolve serves as a key explanation for why peace prevails or breaks down following a settlement. The empirical analysis is based on a unique set of data covering peace agreements in internal armed conflicts during the post-Cold War period. Employing statistical methods, it is found that, with an increasing number of warring parties, peace is less likely to endure. It is also found that more inclusive deals, contrary to a common view, do not increase the likelihood that peace prevails. However, inclusion can make a difference for some parties, as signatories are more likely to stick to peace than parties outside of an agreement. This suggests that no particular formula, in terms of the number of signatories, is required for peace to last. Peace is also shown to be more fragile if the signatory rebel group is strong rather than weak relative to the government, indicating that military power is of importance. In sum, the present research demonstrates that it is pivotal for our understanding of durable peace to consider the complexities that come with a multiparty setting.
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| 41. |
- Nilsson, R. Anders, 1976-
(author)
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Dangerous Liaisons : Why Ex-Combatants Return to Violence. Cases from the Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone
- 2008
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- After disarming and demobilizing, why do some ex-combatants re-engage in organized vio-lence, while others do not? Even though former fighters have been identified as a major source of insecurity in post-civil war societies due to their military know-how, there have been few efforts to systematically examine this puzzle. This study fills this research gap by comparing the presence or absence of organized violence in different ex-combatant communi-ties – all the former fighters that used to belong to the same armed faction and who share a common, horizontal identity based on shared war-and peacetime experiences. It does so by analyzing six ex-combatant communities in two countries: ex-Cobra, Cocoye and Ninja in the Republic of Congo and ex-AFRC, CDF and RUF in Sierra Leone. More specifically, three concepts – remarginalization (former fighters’ lack of political influence, personal security or economic assistance), remobilizers (individuals who have the will, capacity and skills to coordinate organized violence in a post-conflict setting) and relationships (whether or not remobilizers share social or material bonds, conducive for war, with ex-combatant communi-ties and each other) – are applied to the six cases, in order to explain why relatively many former CDF, Cobra, Ninja and RUF fighters resorted to violence, while no or hardly any ex-AFRC and Cocoye combatants did the same. Contrary to assumptions found in previous research, this study finds that structural factors, relating to remarginalization, have little ex-planatory value in themselves. Being a rule, rather than an exception, remarginalization can best be understood as a background variable, creating conducive conditions for violence to take place. Instead, the main determinants of ex-combatant violence are whether former fight-ers have access to regional or domestic elites in the market for experienced fighters and to second-tier individuals – such as former mid-level commanders – who can act as intermediar-ies between the two. By utilizing relationships based on selective incentives and social net-works, these two kinds of remobilizers are able to generate the needed enticements and feel-ings of affinity, trust or fear, to convince ex-combatants to resort to arms. These findings demonstrate that the outbreak of ex-combatant violence can only be understood by more clearly incorporating an actor perspective, focusing on three levels of analysis: the elite, mid-level and grass-root.
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| 42. |
- Ohlson, Thomas
(author)
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Power politics and peace policies : Intra-state conflict resolution in southern Africa
- 1998
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why do some peace agreements after intra-state war fail, while others succeed? The dissertation focuses this question, with specific attention to intra-state wars in regional security complexes. The aim of this comparative study is theory building. Propositions, indicators and research questions are derived from a typology of explanatory variables. The research design is applied to eight conflict resolution processes in Southern Africa. An analysis of bivariate covariation, variable interaction and causal patterns in the cases is used to transform the typology into a preliminary theory.Conflict resolution is a phased process: power-related factors-such as military, diplomatic and economic pressures-tend to bring about a peace agreement, while peace-related factors-such as genuine political will and increased trust between former belligerents-need to be added for the agreement to hold. While there are different paths to conflict resolution, the study identifies common causal patterns. It takes more to end a war, than to start one. A positive interaction between several variables at different levels of analysis was needed to produce a 'No War'-outcome. Specifically, interaction between experiential learning, the regional conflict dynamic, military support, leadership consolidation aspects and third party behaviour is found to have a causal impact on the dependent variable.The attitudes of primary parties to mechanisms for distribution of political power after a war is more important than the specific nature, such as 'power sharing', of the political mechanism. If parties opt for a mechanism they can live with if they lose by it, peace is more likely to be durable. If they seek a mechanism that will maximize their advantage if they win by it, then the likelihood of a return to war increases. This underlines the role of experiential learning and political will for durable resolution of intra-state conflicts.
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| 43. |
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| 44. |
- Olsson, Louise, 1973-
(author)
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Equal Peace : United Nations Peace Operations and the Power-Relations between men and women in Timor-Leste
- 2007
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dissertation expands the inquiry of United Nations peace operations to incorporate their effects on gender power-relations of the host state. To achieve this, a mainstream-based analytical framework, additionally informed by suggestions from feminist research, was formulated and applied to the case of Timor-Leste. In so doing, the study makes two contributions. Firstly, it enhances our ability to trace changes in the power balance between men and women by developing the concept of gender power-relations, especially introducing ‘security equality’ (the distribution of protection between men and women). Secondly, the project systematically explores effects of peace operations on these power-relations in the host state. In the case of Timor-Leste, the study found that gender power-relations became more equal during the UN operation 1999-2002. The most substantial reason behind this change was that the degree of awareness of gender specificity (knowledge of the difference in situation between men and women) increased in the operation leadership. This improved level of awareness had been generated by Timorese women’s groups working together with the operation’s Gender Unit. The end result was an increase in Timorese women’s participation in politics and improved protection from domestic violence. Taken together, the analytical framework and the empirical application inform research on peace operations by providing specific guidelines for theory building.
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| 45. |
- Randahl, David
(author)
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Who knows what tomorrow will bring? : Four papers on the prediction of contentious politics
- 2022
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In the last decade advances in statistics, computing power, and data collection has led to an increased interest in forecasting within the field of peace and conflict research and to the adoption of a wide range of methodological approaches for making such forecasts. By making use of these more powerful forecasting methods researchers have been able to produce accurate predictions, as well as better inferences, of many different types of contentious politics events and to create operational early warning systems for such events. Adapting these forecasting methods to the social world in which politics and political behavior operate, however, is not without its challenges. This dissertation explores a number of methodological issues and advances in peace and conflict research, both inferential and forecasting oriented, through a series of four papers. In the first paper, I explore trends in democratization and autocratization using dynamic simulation. In Paper II, my co-author and I take aim at the difficulty of modeling and making forecasts with data which contains both excess zeroes and extreme-values. We propose an extreme-value and zero-inflated regression model which we use to replicate a study on the effects of UN peacekeepers on violence against civilians. Paper III explores latent variable modeling by using Markov models to make forecasts for escalation and de-escalation of armed conflicts. In the last paper, I investigate the effects of missing data and imputation techniques on the predictive performance of models. The four papers of the dissertation make several contributions to the growing literature of forecasting within peace and conflict research. First, the dissertation contributes to the methodological aspects of conflict forecasting by developing new statistical tools, Paper II, and adapting tools from other fields to different processes of armed conflict and contentious politics, Papers I & III, as well as by evaluating the practical effects of common choices in data pre-processing on the performance of forecasts in Paper IV. Second, the dissertation contributes to new ways of drawing inferences about conflict processes by anchoring the inferences in the latent state of the conflict processes in Papers II & III, and through the comparison of aggregated simulations to the historical record in Paper I. Lastly, the dissertation makes a substantive contribution to the broader field of peace and conflict research in Papers I & II by contributing to the debate on the waves of democratization and autocratization, and by nuancing the impact of UN Peacekeepers on violence against civilians.
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| 46. |
- Salverda, Nynke, 1985-
(author)
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Complex Conflicts : Causes and Consequences of Multiparty Civil Wars
- 2017
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Civil wars are inherently complex and often feature a myriad of actors, whose interactions influence the intensity, duration and outcome of the conflict. The larger the number of actors involved in a conflict, the more complex it gets. While civil wars are often portrayed as a dyadic interaction between the government and a single rebel group, this is far from the reality. Between 1946 and 2015, more than half of those countries that experienced civil wars saw two or more active rebel groups. Understanding multiparty conflicts better is important, as they are deadlier, more difficult to solve and more dangerous for civilians. This dissertation studies the causes and consequences of multiparty civil wars. It suggests that all actors in a conflict system with several actors influence each other, which impacts conflict dynamics. Four essays shed light on different aspects of these civil wars. Essay I studies the differences in formation rates of rebel groups across the states of Northeast India. It finds that potential rebel groups will only form when rebellion is perceived as a legitimate way to address grievances and when competition from already existing groups is not too high. Essay II looks at rebel group splintering: It focusses on relationships within rebel groups and finds that both vertical and horizontal relations affect the likelihood of splintering. Essay III studies violent interactions between rebel groups and investigates how different conflict dynamics influence interrebel fighting. It demonstrates that interrebel fighting is more likely when one of the rebel groups is more successful against the government and when negotiations are ongoing. Finally, Essay IV widens the scope of conflict actors by studying why rebels decide to fight against UN peacekeeping operations. It shows that only relatively strong rebel groups are likely to attack blue helmets. Taken together, this dissertation furthers our understanding of the causes and consequences of multiparty civil wars. It highlights the intricate web of relations that form between actors and that influence civil war dynamics. These relations matter not only for studying civil wars, but also for preparing negotiations or planning a peacekeeping mission.
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| 47. |
- Schaftenaar, Susanne
(author)
-
Gender Equality and Conflict : Gendered Determinants of Armed Conflict, Violent Political Protest, and Nonviolent Campaigns
- 2022
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Women’s rights are not only acknowledged as fundamental human rights, but have also been linked to matters of peace and security by scholars and policymakers. This composite dissertation explores how gender equality affects conflict, specifically armed conflicts, violent political protests, and nonviolent campaigns. Nonviolent campaigns and violent political protests are often omitted from conflict literature that explores the gendered determinants of conflict. Scholarship has additionally paid little rigorous attention to how we quantitatively examine the relationship between gender equality and armed conflict. Essay I offers a global study on the effects of gender equality on nonviolent campaigns and armed conflicts. I argue that gender equality affects movements’ mobilization expectations and societal conflict norms, subsequently impacting the choice of armed conflict or nonviolent campaigns. Essay II examines the gendered determinants of nonviolent campaign participation through a survey study on the 2006 Jana Andolan II movement in Nepal. I put forward what I call the gendered participation paradox: while women, compared to men, may suffer from equal or higher levels of grievances, they have fewer resources with which to translate grievances into campaign participation. Essay III introduces a new UCDP dataset on violent political protests. It includes a short exploration of the effects of gender equality on violent protest. Essay IV re-visits comparative country-level quantitative research investigating the relationship between gender equality and armed conflict. It highlights three areas to be improved if we are to advance this field further: construct validity, sampling, and data quality. Essay I finds that increases in gender equality are associated with an increased likelihood of nonviolent conflict compared to armed and no conflict. Essay II finds support for the gendered participation paradox. Essay III describes the data collection and demonstrates the data’s utility through empirical analyses. In an illustration, it finds that lower levels of gender equality are associated with higher levels of violent political protests. Essay IV identifies construct validity, data quality and sampling concerns in research on the effects of gender equality on armed conflict. I show that past findings are less robust than expected. I re-examine the relationship and find, using out-of-sample validation, that gender equality improves the prediction of armed conflict. This dissertation contributes by taking a broad perspective when exploring the effects of gender equality on conflict by incorporating -alongside armed conflict- nonviolent campaigns and violent political protests.
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| 48. |
- Sjöstedt, Roxanna, 1973-
(author)
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Talking Threats : The Social Construction of National Security in Russia and the United States
- 2010
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Why are some issues seen as threats? This dissertation attempts to explain the dynamics of threat construction by national decision-makers. The theoretical ambition is twofold: first, the dissertation aims at improving the research on threat construction by suggesting a broad approach that analyzes this process in a structured manner. Second, the dissertation also contributes to the more mainstream International Relations security research agenda, which often under-problematizes this issue. The point of departure is that the link between a condition (e.g. structure) and threat framing (e.g. agency) is not to be taken for granted, and that threat construction is subjective and varies among actors. This assertion is supported by the findings of the dissertation’s component parts. Essay I finds that US security doctrines such as the Truman and Bush doctrines are not routine responses to external threats but rather the natural continuation of a political and societal discourse in which certain norms and identities interact. Essay II finds that a condition that could lay the foundation for a threat construction does not necessarily evoke such a reaction, such as the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Russia. Essay III demonstrates the opposite situation; that a securitization can take place although the contextual conditions do not necessarily point toward such a move, such as US President Clinton’s declaration that AIDS is a threat to the national security of the United States. Essay IV proposes a framework that incorporates explanatory factors from the international, the domestic, and the individual levels of analysis. Such a framework allows for a more refined analysis which better captures the contingent relationships between factors. Taken together, the findings of this dissertation indicate that the correlations between conditions and threat constructions are intricate, and that the explanation of a securitization lies in the interaction of certain social and cognitive processes.
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| 49. |
- Skoog, Eric, 1986-
(author)
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Preferences Under Pressure : Conflict, Threat Cues and Willingness to Compromise
- 2020
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Understanding how preferences are formed is a key question in the social sciences. The ability of agents to interact with each other is a prerequisite for well-functioning societies. Nevertheless, the process whereby the preferences of agents in conflict are formed have often been black boxed, and the literature on the effects of armed conflict on individuals reveals a great variation in terms of outcomes. Sometimes, individuals are willing to cooperate and interact even with former enemies, while sometimes, we see outright refusal to cooperate or interact at all. In this dissertation, I look at the role of threat in driving some of these divergent results. Armed conflict is rife with physical threats to life, limb and property, and there has been much research pointing to the impact of threat on preferences, attitudes and behavior. Research in the field of evolutionary psychology has revealed that threat is not a singular category, but a nuanced phenomenon, where different types of threat may lead to different responses. I argue that by taking a more nuanced approach to threat, drawing on theories from the field of evolutionary psychology, some of the variance in outcomes can be explained. In particular, some commonly observed features of protracted conflicts, such as seemingly indivisible issues and parochialism may be moderated by threat. In the four essays, I address this from both a theoretical and empirical point of view. In Essay I, I illustrate in a formal bargaining setting how threats can lead actors to prefer risky all-or-nothing gambles to division schemes, preventing bargaining solutions to be found. In the second essay (Essay II), I show that willingness to make compromises with members of other groups are not contingent on group affiliation alone, but rather on the expected reciprocity of that group. Furthermore, characteristics of others beyond group can also affect pro-sociality. Based on a threat management perspective, me and my coauthors in Essay III show that non-threatening social categories, such as women or the elderly, are shown higher levels of altruism, also when there individuals are outgroup members. Exposure to violence can even increase altruism across group lines, but only to these non-threatening groups. Finally, in Essay IV, I show that those who experience post-traumatic growth as a result of traumatic events reverse the standard loss aversion people generally display, even showing gain-seeking preferences. Together, these results point to the importance of bringing in a more nuanced conceptualization of the role of threat in the study of peace and conflict. Even in the most brutal and destructive conflicts, humans are able to cooperate, also across group lines. However, for this cooperation to function, managing the threats in conflict is of central importance.
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| 50. |
- Sollenberg, Margareta, 1968-
(author)
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A Scramble for Rents : Foreign Aid and Armed Conflict
- 2012
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Previous research has not specified the circumstances under which foreign aid may increase the probability of armed conflict. The purpose of this dissertation is to address this gap by employing a theoretical framework in which foreign aid produces incentives for a rent-seeking scramble among elites. A set of conditions affecting the likelihood of armed conflict are identified and tested on global data in a series of statistical analyses. Paper I argues and finds that foreign aid increases the probability of armed conflict in states where there are few constraints on executive power, allowing for a scramble for rents. Paper II proposes and finds a threshold effect of aid, such that the likelihood of armed conflict increases only when aid has reached a certain level. Paper III suggests and demonstrates that sudden negative changes in aid flows enhance the risk of armed conflict as well as coup attempts, as aid shortfalls accelerate distributional conflict over aid rents. Paper IV claims and shows that civil wars are less likely to be terminated by settlement in the form of elections when conflict parties are dependent on rents. In sum, this dissertation contributes by theoretically specifying and empirically identifying conditions under which foreign aid increases the probability of armed conflict.
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