| 1. |
- Andersson, Daniel, 1989-
(author)
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Ecologies of Integrated Modeling : Configuring Policy-Relevance in Swedish Climate Governance
- 2023
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - Lausanne : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Due to the long timescales and deep uncertainties involved, comprehensive model-building has played a pivotal role in creating shared expectations about future trajectories for addressing climate change processes, mobilizing a network of knowledge-based experts who assist in defining common problems, identifying policy solutions, and assessing the policy outcomes. At the intersection between climate change science and climate governance, where wholly empirical methods are infeasible, numerical simulations have become the central practice for evaluating truth claims, and the key medium for the transport and translation of data, methods, and guiding principles among the actors involved. What makes integrated assessment unique as a comprehensive modeling-effort is that it is explicitly policy-oriented, justified by its policy-relevance. Although recognized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as invaluable to their review assessments, the role of integrated modeling in implementations of the Paris Agreement, such as in impact assessments of climate legislation on the national level, is far less known. Taking as its starting-point the boundary-work carried out in public administration, this paper examines how foresight knowledge produced with the help of model-based scenario analysis has been made relevant in Swedish climate policymaking, focusing on the processes by which key indicators for political action become institutionalized through the choice and use of model parameters. It concludes by arguing for an expanded understanding of policy-relevance, beyond institutional approaches and toward a process-based point of view, treating relevance as something in-the-making.
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| 2. |
- André, Karin, et al.
(author)
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Assessing the Quality of Knowledge for Adaptation : Experiences From Co-designing Climate Services in Sweden
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - Lausanne, Switzerland : Frontiers Research Foundation. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Adaptation to climate change is becoming more urgent, but the wealth of knowledge that informs adaptation planning and decision-making is not used to its full potential. Top-down approaches to knowledge production are identified as one important reason for the gap between science and practice and are criticized for not meeting the needs of intended users. In response to this challenge, there is a growing interest in the creation of user-oriented and actionable climate services to support adaptation. At the same time, recent research suggests that greater efforts are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of knowledge co-production processes and the best criteria by which to gauge the quality of knowledge outcomes, while also considering different stakeholder perspectives. This paper explores these issues through a critical assessment of the quality of knowledge for adaptation generated from a climate services co-design process in two case studies in Sweden. The study draws on experiences from a 5-year research collaboration in which natural and social science researchers, together with local stakeholders, co-designed climate services to support climate adaptation planning and decision-making. The well-established knowledge quality criteria of credibility, legitimacy, saliency, usability, and usefulness remain relevant, but are not sufficient to capture factors relating to whether and how the knowledge actually is applied by climate change adaptation planners and decision-makers. We observe that case-specific circumstances beyond the scope of the co-design process, including the decision-making context as well as non-tangible outcomes, also play crucial roles that should be accounted for in the knowledge assessment processes.
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| 3. |
- Barron, Jennie
(author)
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Building climate resilience in rainfed landscapes needs more than good will
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rainfed smallholder farming is particularly vulnerable to climate change, which can greatly exacerbate existing poverty and livelihood challenges. Understanding the complexity of the systems that connect the environment, society and people can help us to reduce this vulnerability and increase the resilience of communities and households to climate perturbations. In recent years, resilience theory has proven a useful approach for exploring the complexity of development challenges. As a result, there has been an increase in the development of tools and frameworks for assessing resilience. Despite this increased focus, there is no consistent use of the resilience concept in development practice and little evidence as to the benefits of using the tools. This paper aims to bridge theory and practice by coupling research on resilience with its application in the international development field. The specific hypothesis we explore is if and how rural livelihoods build resilience toward increased climatic variability in already degraded agro-ecological landscapes? We present a resilience framework with indicators to assess the extent of community resilience to climate change through improved local agricultural production and natural resources management. Primary and secondary landscape and community data, together with development of participatory watershed action plans were used to populate 16 indicators in a resilience framework baseline for the two rainfed dominated watersheds in Ethiopia and Ghana respectively. Given community awareness of the challenges related to the watershed natural resources, local agriculture and extreme weather, the communities were very willing to develop action plans to improve their management of natural resources and build climate resilience. Nevertheless, our analysis of the watershed action plans revealed that strengthening resilience through local action alone, would likely not be sufficient to meet all climate -livelihood challenges identified. To address severity and recurrence of climate change related disturbances, such as droughts, floods and disease in poverty-affected rural communities, the capacity to improve resilience will depend on external factors, in addition to inherent action. New knowledge, infrastructure and social security mechanisms, including insurance and emergency assistance need to added to build resilience for poverty-affected communities in degraded watersheds. We conclude there are also challenges in the use of resilience framework for development and climate-action related to rural poverty affected and degraded livelihood systems. Populating complex social–environmental systems will also need further development, to understand progress in resilience building under changing climate. Special attention to systemic indicators that describe the coupling and interdependencies of social-ecosystem factors will be critical to take action.
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| 4. |
- Basta, Claudia, et al.
(author)
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Inclusiveness, Equity, Consistency, and Flexibility as Guiding Criteria for Enabling Transdisciplinary Collaboration : Lessons From a European Project on Nature-Based Solutions and Urban Innovation
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The structural research programmes of the European Union dedicated to advance thesustainability sciences are increasingly permeated by thenotion of transdisciplinarity (TD). A growing body of literature residing at the intersection of research methodology and sustainability studies can guide researchers to adopt appropriate research approaches in their projects. However, how to implement the transdisciplinary approach in multidisciplinary and multi-stakeholder projects that develop in different countries for several years is still relatively undocumented. This study seeks to fill this gap by sharing the experience of a group of researchers and stakeholders involved in the Horizon 2020 research and innovation project Nature-Based Urban Innovation (NATURVATION). The article discusses the monitoring and evaluation strategy that employed four criteria of transdisciplinary research quality as “reflexive devices”to enable a systematic reporting on the project’s most important collaborative activities. By examining how the four criteria captured transdisciplinary quality, new insights were produced for improving this monitoring and evaluation strategy for future transdisciplinary research, allowing a number of concrete recommendations to be formulated.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Brandao, Miguel
(author)
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Indirect Effects Negate Global Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Substituting Gasoline With Corn Ethanol as a Transportation Fuel in the USA
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Concerns over climate change have led to the promotion of biofuels for transport, particularly biodiesel from oilseed crops and ethanol from sugar and starch crops. However, additional concerns arose on whether the climate change mitigation potential of biofuels is negated by the associated direct land requirements (dLUC) for growing biofuel feedstocks, or by the indirect land requirements (iLUC) that compensate for the diversion of food/feed crops into biofuels, both cases leading to greenhouse gas emissions. We investigated data over the last 20-year period to estimate the magnitude of the effects ethanol production in the USA has had on land use domestically and abroad. The data analyzed suggests that, over the period, the use of corn for ethanol increased by 118 Mt per year, most of it coming from displacement of other uses of corn, mainly feed, which were compensated by increased feed production elsewhere. Results suggest a relatively low dLUC but a significant iLUC effect, mainly due to the compensation for the foregone feed production as a result of diverting corn into ethanol production. The resulting 18.0 Mt CO2-eq. associated with meeting the renewable-energy target of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol more than negates the climate benefits from avoided use of gasoline, indicating that promoting corn ethanol for global climate change mitigation may be counter-productive as, despite decreasing domestic emissions, global emissions increase. We suggest that the policy be revised accordingly.
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| 8. |
- Brandao, Miguel, et al.
(author)
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RED, PEF, and EPD: Conflicting rules for determining the carbon footprint of biofuels give unclear signals to fuel producers and customers
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Biofuel producers and other commodity suppliers are increasingly affected by conflicting rules for life cycle assessment (LCA). They may get multiple requests for LCAs to be used in various contexts, which require the application of different methodological approaches that vary in scope, system boundaries, data demand, and more. This results in increased cost and competence requirements for producers, as well as confusion among other actors including their customers. Differences in methodologies might also lead to various outcomes, conclusions and conflicting guidance regarding which fuels to prioritize or develop. We have analyzed the actual differences when applying three different frameworks: the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), the EU framework for Product Environmental Footprints (PEF), and the framework of Environmental Product Declarations (EPD), which have different modeling requirements. We analyzed the methods from a conceptual point of view and also applied the methods to estimate the carbon footprint on a wide range of biofuel production pathways: (i) ethanol from corn, (ii) fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) from rapeseed oil, (iii) biogas from food waste, (iv) hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) from rapeseed oil, and (v) HVO from used cooking oil. Results obtained for a specific fuel could differ substantially depending on the framework applied and the assumptions and interpretations made when applying the different frameworks. Particularly, the results are very sensitive to the modeling of waste management when biofuel is produced from waste. Our results indicate a much higher climate impact for, e.g., biogas and HVO produced from used cooking oil when assessed with the PEF framework compared to the other frameworks. This is because PEF assigns at least part of the production of primary materials and energy to the use of recycled material and recovered energy. Developing Category Rules for biofuels for PEF and EPD ought to help clarifying remaining ambiguities.
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| 9. |
- Buylova, Alexandra, 1989-, et al.
(author)
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Cancel (Out) Emissions? The Envisaged Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies in Long-Term National Climate Strategies
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) increasingly features in climate scenarios that hold global warming well below 2°C by 2100. Given the continuous gap between climate mitigation pledges and the emission pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, we would expect countries to promote CDR in their long-term planning to achieve mid-century targets. Yet, countries may not consider it their responsibility to contribute to the global response to climate change using CDR. Thus, a study of the respective country's long-term climate plans is both timely and vital. Such a study could reveal the pledged collective ambition, the contribution of CDR to the pledged ambition, and how the envisaged role of CDR is described by the different countries. This paper explores the long-term low emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) of countries in order to map the role of CDR in addressing climate change. We also supplement our examination of strategies with the opinions of climate experts. Based on an inductive coding of the material and a literature review, the analytical focus of the analysis includes CDR targets and planning, types of CDR, barriers and opportunities to CDR implementation, as well as international cooperation. Our study of 25 national LT-LEDS submitted to the UN or to the EU, as well as 23 interviews with climate experts, shows that national plans for CDR vary substantially across countries and are generally lacking in detail. The findings also demonstrate that CDR is perceived to be necessary and desirable for achieving mid-century climate goals, but also reveal variation in the intended role of CDR. We use an interpretive approach to outline three possible visions of CDR in climate action: as a panacea, as a necessary fallback and as a chimera. We conclude by discussing what our findings of the envisaged roles of CDR in addressing climate change mean for climate governance. This research thereby contributes to the literature on governing CDR with new comprehensive insights into the long-term climate strategies of countries.
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| 10. |
- Carton, Wim, et al.
(author)
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Undoing equivalence: Rethinking carbon accounting for just carbon removal
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Concerns are increasingly raised over the centrality of carbon removal in climate policy, particularly in the guise of “net-zero” targets. Most significantly perhaps, treating emissions and removals as equivalent obscures emission reductions, resulting in “mitigation deterrence.” Yet the conflation of emission reductions and removals is only one among several implicit equivalences in carbon removal accounting. Here, we examine three other forms—carbon, geographical, and temporal equivalence—and discuss their implications for climate justice and the environmental risks with carbon removal. We conclude that “undoing” these equivalences would further a just response to the climate crisis and tentatively explore what such undoing might look like in practice.
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| 11. |
- Englund, Mathilda, et al.
(author)
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Four Methodological Guidelines to Evaluate the Research Impact of Co-produced Climate Services
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 4, s. 1-15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As climate change impacts unfold across the globe, growing attention is paid toward producing climate services that support adaptation decision-making. Academia, funding agencies, and decision-makers generally agree that stakeholder engagement in co-producing knowledge is key to ensure effective decision support. However, co-production processes remain challenging to evaluate, given their many intangible effects, long time horizons, and inherent complexity. Moreover, how such evaluation should look like is understudied. In this paper, we therefore propose four methodological guidelines designed to evaluate co-produced climate services: (i) engaging in adaptive learning by applying developmental evaluation practices, (ii) building and refining a theory of change, (iii) involving stakeholders using participatory evaluation methods, and (iv) combining different data collection methods that incorporate visual products. These methodological guidelines offset previously identified evaluation challenges and shortcomings, and can be used to help stakeholders rethink research impact evaluation through their complementary properties to identify complex change pathways, external factors, intangible effects, and unexpected outcomes.
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| 12. |
- Fairbrother, Malcolm, 1975-, et al.
(author)
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Climate policy in British Columbia : an unexpected journey
- 2023
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since introducing a path-breaking carbon tax in 2008, the western Canadian province of British Columbia (BC) has attracted significant attention from climate policy scholars. The enactment of its carbon tax has made the case of BC intriguing, as Canada is a poor climate performer, BC is a fossil fuel producer, and carbon taxes are politically challenging to introduce anywhere. This paper discusses the BC tax, and what lessons it holds for other jurisdictions. We complement existing accounts with new details about key events and developments in recent years, and about climate policymaking in BC generally. While there are features of the tax's design and promotion that would be worth replicating elsewhere, we argue its survival reflects some simple good fortune. Moreover, the case of BC should not be reduced to its tax, as the province has enacted other notable climate policies, some of which have done more to reduce emissions while attracting less public criticism.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Fridahl, Mathias, 1980-, et al.
(author)
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Mapping Multi-Level Policy Incentives for Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage in Sweden
- 2020
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 2, s. 1-25
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a key mitigation technology in most 1.5–2.0°C compatible climate change mitigation scenarios. Nonetheless, examples of BECCS deployment are lacking internationally. It is widely acknowledged that widespread implementation of this technology requires strong policy enablers, and that such enablers are currently non-existent. However, the literature lacks a more structured assessment of the “incentive gap” between scenarios with substantive BECCS deployment and existing policy enablers to effectuate BECCS deployment. Sweden, a country with progressive climate policies and particularly good preconditions for BECCS, constitutes a relevant locus for such examinations. The paper asks to what extent and how existing UN, EU, and Swedish climate policy instruments incentivize BECCS research, development, demonstration, and deployment in Sweden. The analysis is followed by a tentative discussion of needs for policy reform to improve the effectiveness of climate policy in delivering BECCS. Drawing on a tripartite typology of policy instruments (economic, regulatory, and informational) and the ability of these instruments to create supply-push or demand-pull, the article finds that: (1) no instruments create a demand-pull to cover operational expenditure; (2) economic instruments provide partial support for research and the capital expenditure associated with demonstration, and; (3) regulatory instruments provide partial clarity on environmental safeguards and responsibilities. A few regulatory barriers also continue to counteract deployment. The article concludes that the existing policy mix requires considerable reform if BECCS is to contribute substantially to the Swedish target for net-zero emissions. Continued effort to dismantle regulatory barriers must be complemented with a strong demand-pull instrument that complements the current focus on supply-push incentives. If unreformed, the existing policy mix will most likely lead to substantial public expenditure on BECCS research, development, and demonstration without leading to any substantial deployment and diffusion.
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| 15. |
- Hansson, Anders, 1978-, et al.
(author)
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Boundary Work and Interpretations in the IPCC Review Process of the Role of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in Limiting Global Warming to 1.5°C
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - Lausanne : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Paris Agreement-compatible emissions pathways produced by integrated assessment models (IAMs) often rely on large amounts of carbon dioxide removals, especially afforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). These pathways feature prominently in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the extent that the IAMs have been granted an interpretative privilege at the interface between climate science, economics, and policymaking. The privilege extends to and influences climate governance, including governance of BECCS. This paper contributes to recent debates about the role of the IPCC, and its framing of BECCS, at the science-policy interface. By analyzing all BECCS-related expert review comments and author responses on the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, the paper shows that boundary work influences the representation of BECCS by authors referring to: (1) a limited scope or capacity; (2) a restrictive mandate; (3) what constitutes legitimate science, and; (4) relativizing uncertainties. The responses to the review comments indicate a significant degree of compliance on behalf of the authors. Yet, the revisions do not seem to go to the heart of the unease that runs through many of the reviewer comments, i.e., that BECCS seems to be presented as a viable CDR technology at grand scale. While several revisions serve to clarify uncertainties surrounding BECCS, some fundamental aspects of the critique are deflected, through the boundary work identified. What the analysis reveals, beyond a dissatisfaction among many reviewers with the focus on integrated assessment modeling, the associated pathway literature, and analysis of BECCS, is a disagreement about how model results should be interpreted and communicated. While acknowledging the herculean task of the IPCC and the efforts to improve the pathway literature that the SR1.5 triggered within the IAM communities, we argue that the identified boundary work also risks entrenching rather than problematize dominant framings of the feasibility of BECCS. Such entrenchment can counteract the ambition of opening up the scientific work of the IPCC to include more diversity in the process of drafting reports, and arguably also influence the governance of CDR.
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| 16. |
- Healey, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Governing Net Zero Carbon Removals to Avoid Entrenching Inequities
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change embeds inequities and risks reinforcing these in policies for climate change remediation. In particular, with policies designed to achieve “net zero” carbon dioxide, offsets may be considered inequitable if seen to avoid or delay gross emission reductions; offsets to emissions through technologically mature methods of carbon dioxide removals (CDR) require natural resources at scales threatening food security; knowledge of the potential of immature CDR is largely a global north monopoly; and CDR in particular environments is ill-understood and its implications for development unexamined. The use of CDR to contribute to robust progress toward Paris climate goals requires global agreement on simultaneously reducing emissions and enhancing removals, equity in burden sharing, and an interdisciplinary effort led by individual jurisdictions and focused on the co-development of technologies and governance to create CDR portfolios matched to local needs.
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| 17. |
- Hellin, Jon, et al.
(author)
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Reflections on Enhancing the Impact of Climate Risk Management Through Transformative Adaptation
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate risk management is part of the response to the threat of climate change. Much effort has focused on the promotion on climate-resilient agriculture. There continues to be undue focus on technology solutions per se and not enough attention on the coupling of technologies and socio-economics and how they become embedded in ecological systems underpinning smallholder agriculture. In this perspective, we argue that an intertwined social–ecological–technological systems approach to climate risk management is needed to ensure that climate-resilient agriculture contributes more to the realization of goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Furthermore, in line with broader policy thinking on the need for transformative change toward sustainably living on the planet and “leaving no one behind,” a greater focus on transformative adaptation is required. Transformative adaptation tackles the root causes of vulnerability including unevenly distributed power relations, and extant networks of control and influence. There are, however, relatively few examples of moving from the theory of transformative adaptation to practice. Three recent practical examples of transdisciplinary approaches, that we have direct experience of as researchers, provide lessons for initial ways forward as part of climate risk management initiatives. Examples from Vietnam, East and Southern Africa, and Guatemala illustrate the importance of inter- and transdisciplinary responses whereby the inequalities underlying unequal power structures may be addressed, enabling farmers to pursue climate risk management pathways that contribute to climate resilience and human development, as epitomized by the Sustainable Development Goals.
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| 18. |
- Ho, Vanessa C., et al.
(author)
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Assessing immediate emotions in the theory of planned behavior can substantially contribute to increases in pro-environmental behavior
- 2024
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In: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is a highly influential and powerful behavior change model that offers promising guidance on promoting urgently needed, pro-environmental action. Recent pro-environmental research has successfully augmented TPB using anticipated emotions-the emotions an individual consciously predicts they will experience in relation to possible outcomes of their decision. However, immediate emotions-the emotions an individual actually experiences during decision-making-have received far less attention. Given that immediate emotions are relevant to pro-environmental decision-making and can address the theoretical and empirical limitations of TPB, we contend that pro-environmental studies should explicitly examine immediate emotions within the TPB framework. This article aims to stimulate rigorous research that enhances pro-environmental communication and policymaking by providing integrative insights into immediate emotions along with recommendations for evaluating immediate emotions in a pro-environmental TPB context.
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| 19. |
- Klement, Jonathan, 1994, et al.
(author)
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Supply Chain Driven Commercialisation of Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pulp mills, as large biogenic CO2 point sources, could adopt Bio Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) through retrofitting carbon capture. These existing carbon sources constitute a great potential to roll out BECCS on commercial scale. Yet, despite political targets for negative emission production in Sweden, no incentive schemes were thus far enacted. While previous proposals focus on governmental compensation, the aim of this work is to set BECCS into the supply chain of a wide array of consumer products and thereby find alternative or complementary, business-driven, ways to incentivise BECCS when applied to the pulp and paper industry. In this work, we assess a “value proposition” for low-carbon products in supply chains linked to the pulp and paper industry. By projecting the costs and negative emissions related to BECCS from the pulp mill to typical consumer products, as exemplified by three case study products, we show how BECCS can substantially reduce the carbon footprint of the consumer products, while only marginally increasing their cost. Additional price premiums could shorten the payback period of the initial investment in BECCS. The developed business case presents how actors along the supply chain for pulp and paper products can collectively contribute to securing financing and to mitigating investment risks. The results challenge the private sector, i.e., the companies along the pulp-and-paper supply chain to commit considerable investments also in the case without or with too weak direct political incentives. We conclude by discussing the governance implications on corporate and public level to enable the collaborative “bottom-up” adoption of BECCS.
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| 20. |
- Lampis, Andrea, et al.
(author)
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Reparation ecology and climate risk in Latin-America: Experiences from four countries
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IPCC's Sixth Assessment is a landmark in recognizing social justice and local knowledge as imperative for successful climate adaptation; however, taking this new scientific consensus seriously has profound implications. While narratives of fossil fuel companies and closing climate windows often dominate climate politics, there is an urgent need for new thinking frames, especially given that everyday adaptations by the most vulnerable are often hindered by incumbent actors at more local scales. In response, this paper tackles the issue of climate risk and human wellbeing in Latin America from an emerging and innovative perspective: reparation ecology. Reparation is a heuristic category by means of which we systematize converging evidence about the responses of local Latin-American communities to severe socio-environmental crises that are closely connected to climate risks and to long-lasting threats to the wellbeing of human societies and ecosystems. The results focus on a comparative analysis of five case studies on nature-based urban adaptation in two low-income settlements in Brazil; local ecological governance led by actors from the organized civil society in Colombia; agroecological and just innovative food production systems in Ecuador and sustainable urban-rural food markets in Guatemala. Assuming the complexity of climate change from a culturally and geographically located perspective, the paper unveils the non-doomed, ecologically reparative character of these initiatives. It therefore contributes to the recent turn in the debate on climate risk, claiming that diverse groups of people and communities around the world are contributing to radical change, tuning their behaviors and social arrangements in what an emerging scholarship defines as reparation ecology.
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| 21. |
- Lehtveer, Mariliis, 1983, et al.
(author)
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BECCS and DACCS as Negative Emission Providers in an Intermittent Electricity System: Why Levelized Cost of Carbon May Be a Misleading Measure for Policy Decisions
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere is likely to be needed to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2°C and thereby for meeting the Paris Agreement. There is a debate which methods are most suitable and cost-effective for this goal and thus deeper understanding of system effects related to CDR are needed for effective governance of these technologies. Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) are two CDR methods, that have a direct relation to the electricity system—BECCS via producing it and DACCS via consuming. In this work, we investigate how BECCS and DACCS interact with an intermittent electricity system to achieve net negative emissions in the sector using an energy system model and two regions with different wind and solar resource conditions. The analysis shows that DACCS has a higher levelized cost of carbon (LCOC) than BECCS, implying that it is less costly to capture CO2 using BECCS under the assumptions made in this study. However, due to a high levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) produced by BECCS, the total system cost is lower using DACCS as negative emission provider as it is more flexible and enables cheaper electricity production from wind and solar PV. We also find that the replacement effect outweighs the flexibility effect. Since variations in solar-based systems are more regular and shorter (daily cycles), one could assume that DACCS is better suited for such systems, whereas our results point in the opposite direction showing that DACCS is more competitive in the wind-based systems. The result is sensitive to the price of biomass and to the amount of negative emissions required from the electricity sector. Our results show that the use of the LCOC as often presented in the literature as a main indicator for choosing between different CDR options might be misleading and that broader system effects need to be considered for well-grounded decisions.
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| 22. |
- Lidskog, Rolf, professor, 1961-, et al.
(author)
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Lost in transformation : The Paris Agreement, the IPCC and the quest for national transformative change
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IPCC stated in its special report on global warming of 1. 5°C (SR15) that meeting the temperature target of the Paris Agreement requires rapid and far-reaching changes across all aspects of society. This is called a need for transformative change. However, what is meant by transformative change? What should be changed, and how should it be changed? These questions are explored in this paper, which is structured in three steps. First, it develops a conceptual meaning of transformative change that is centered on society. Then, it analyses how the IPCC in SR15 understands transformative change. The analysis finds that the proposed pathways to reach the targets of 1.5 and 2°C have a strong technical focus on energy supply, which makes broader and deeper transformative change almost unnecessary. This finding is related to the recently published IPCC report on mitigation. Even if institutional and socio-cultural dimensions of transformative change are better covered in this report, they are insufficiently integrated into the overall assessment of necessary transformative changes. Finally, it turns to the national level, analyzing Sweden's ambition to become the first fossil-free welfare society in the world. The analysis shows, in line with SR15, that Sweden has a restricted focus on changes in energy supply, making transformative change, such as restructuring the economic system and questioning consumption patterns, unnecessary. Based on this analysis of international (the IPCC) and national (Sweden) levels, this paper identifies a need for an elaborated, consistent and deeper understanding of transformative change. It concludes that to be relevant to countries' work to achieve ambitious climate targets, the IPCC should develop a more qualified understanding of transformative change, which requires a better integration of social science research.
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| 23. |
- Meurer, Katharina
(author)
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Describing complex interactions of social-ecological systems for tipping point assessments: an analytical framework
- 2023
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - 2624-9553. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans play an interconnecting role in social-ecological systems (SES), they are part of these systems and act as agents of their destruction and regulation. This study aims to provide an analytical framework, which combines the concept of SES with the concept of tipping dynamics. As a result, we propose an analytical framework describing relevant dynamics and feedbacks within SES based on two matrixes: the "tipping matrix" and the "cross-impact matrix." We take the Southwestern Amazon as an example for tropical regions at large and apply the proposed analytical framework to identify key underlying sub-systems within the study region: the soil ecosystem, the household livelihood system, the regional social system, and the regional climate system, which are interconnected through a network of feedbacks. We consider these sub-systems as tipping elements (TE), which when put under stress, can cross a tipping point (TP), resulting in a qualitative and potentially irreversible change of the respective TE. By systematically assessing linkages and feedbacks within and between TEs, our proposed analytical framework can provide an entry point for empirically assessing tipping point dynamics such as "tipping cascades," which means that the crossing of a TP in one TE may force the tipping of another TE. Policy implications: The proposed joint description of the structure and dynamics within and across SES in respect to characteristics of tipping point dynamics promotes a better understanding of human-nature interactions and critical linkages within regional SES that may be used for effectively informing and directing empirical tipping point assessments, monitoring or intervention purposes. Thereby, the framework can inform policy-making for enhancing the resilience of regional SES.
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| 24. |
- Nehler, Therese, 1976-, et al.
(author)
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Regulatory Preconditions for the Deployment of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage in Europe
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Paris-compatible climate scenarios often consider bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) as an important technology for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Although the main barrier to BECCS deployment is often associated with lack of economic policy incentives, unfavorable regulations can also impede investments. Over the past decade, the regulatory conditions at the UN and on the EU level have developed to be more permissive toward BECCS. For instance, CDR accounting guidelines have been developed by the UN, and the EU CCS Directive regulates responsibilities regarding storage of CO2. However, several existing regulations still cause deployment hurdles. Taking a European viewpoint, this perspectives article takes stock of recent regulatory developments and provides a discussion on legal acts that need to be reformed in order to facilitate BECCS deployment. Although the European trend is characterized by developing a regulatory regime that is more supportive of BECCS, we identify three areas for further improvement: (1) allowing EU Member States to use negative emissions from BECCS to comply with their obligations under the legislative pillars that underpin the EU’s climate objectives: (2) amending the CCS Directive to exempt physical leakage of biogenic CO2, attributable to sustainably sourced biomass, from the requirement to surrender emission allowances in the EU ETS or, if BECCS has been economically rewarded, the penalty for leakage should correspond to the level of the reward; and (3) pushing to erase the last few barriers due to multilateral regimes, such as clarifying whether BECCS is covered by the geoengineering moratorium maintained by the UN Convention on Biological Diversity. These proposed reforms would further improve the regulatory preconditions for BECCS deployment in the EU.
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| 25. |
- Nkurunziza, Libére, et al.
(author)
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Reducing Climate Risks by Improving Food Production and Value Chains: A Case of Sandy Soils in Semi-arid Kenya
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Due to climate change and variability, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent worldwide, causing significant reductions in agricultural production and food security. The livelihoods of smallholder farmers, especially those eking out a living by farming on sandy soils, are particularly affected. We examined this issue using the case of Makueni County, a semi-arid area with sandy soils in south-eastern Kenya. Using survey data from 202 households, we examined extreme weather events affecting smallholder farmers and current management strategies used to mitigate the consequences. We then performed field experiments to assess potential gains of implementing sub-surface water retention technology (SWRT) in the region. Finally, we held group discussions with stakeholders in food value chains (FVC) to identify ways of managing climate risks to smallholder farmers. Analysis of the survey data showed that 199 of 202 farmers surveyed had experienced an extreme event associated with climate change and variability during the previous five years. Of these 199 farmers, 161 reported having changed their farming practices to adapt, especially to drought (70%) and increased temperature (22%). Common adaptation practices included early planting, reducing the area under cultivation, and water harvesting. In the field experiments, using SWRT resulted in a 50, 100, 150, and 170% increase in maize grain yield, cob numbers, cob weight, and maize stover biomass, respectively, compared with the control (without SWRT). Stakeholder group discussions along the FVC demonstrated a need for synergy among actors to mitigate climate risks caused by extreme weather events. These findings suggest that diversification of management strategies at farm level, combined with external inputs (new technologies, improved seeds, etc.) and services (credit access, learning from peers and professionals), will be instrumental in reducing future climate risks to smallholder farmers. Improving access to viable markets and fostering mutually beneficial linkages with post-harvest processors would add value to farm produce, thus further increasing income and the capacity of smallholder farmers to manage climate risks.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Reese, Gerhard, et al.
(author)
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No risk, no fun…ctioning? Perceived climate risks, but not nature connectedness or self-efficacy predict climate anxiety
- 2023
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - 2624-9553. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly visible.Recent research suggests that people may respond to climate change andits predicted consequences with a specific anxiety. Yet, little is known aboutpotential antecedents of climate anxiety. The current study aimed to understandthe contribution of climate risk perception to climate anxiety, along withnature-connectedness, self-efficacy, and political orientation. With a sample of204 German adults, we assessed these constructs together with environmentalpolicy support that may result from climate anxiety. Stronger risk perceptionand a left political orientation predicted climate anxiety. Self-efficacy and natureconnectedness, however, were unrelated to climate anxiety. In line with previousstudies, climate anxiety correlated positively with environmental policy supportbut did not predict environmental policy support when controlling for climate risk perception. We discuss results with regard to further developing the concept of climate anxiety and its dynamics and suggest directions for future research.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Rickels, Wilfried, et al.
(author)
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Integrating Carbon Dioxide Removal Into European Emissions Trading
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In one of the central scenarios for meeting an European Union-wide net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target by 2050, the emissions cap in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) becomes net negative. Despite this ambition, no mechanism allows for the inclusion of CO2 removal credits (CRCs) in the EU ETS to date. Amending the EU ETS legislation is required to create enabling conditions for a net negative cap. Here, we conceptually discuss various economic, legal, and political challenges surrounding the integration of CRCs into the EU ETS. To analyze cap-and-trade systems encompassing negative emissions, we introduce the effective (elastic) cap resulting from the integration of CRCs in addition to the regulatory (inelastic) cap, the latter now being binding for the net emissions only. Given current cost estimates for BECCS and DACCS, minimum quantities for the use of removals, as opposed to ceilings as currently discussed, would be required to promote the near-term integration of such technologies. Instead of direct interaction between the companies involved in emissions trading and the providers of CRCs, the regulatory authority could also transitionally act as an intermediary by buying CRCs and supplying them in turn conditional upon observed allowances prices, for example, by supporting a (soft) price collar. Contrary to a price collar without dedicated support from CRCs, in this case (net) compliance with the overall cap is maintained. EU legislation already provides safeguards for physical carbon leakage concerning CCS, making Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture and Storage prioritized for inclusion in the EU ETS. Furthermore, a special opportunity might apply for the inclusion of BECCS installations. Repealing the provision that installations exclusively using biomass are not covered by the ETS Directive, combined with freely allocated allowances to these installations, would allow operators of biomass installations to sell allowances made available through the use of BECCS. Achieving GHG neutrality in the EU by 2050 requires designing suitable incentive systems for CO2 removal, which includes the option to open up EU emissions trading to CRCs.
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Rodriguez, Emily, 1988-
(author)
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Storing carbon dioxide for climate's sake: contradictions and parallels with enhanced oil recovery
- 2023
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : FRONTIERS MEDIA SA. - 2624-9553. ; 5
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An increase in carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, including bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), has led to an urgent demand for storage sites, and Norway stands out for its ongoing and planned geological storage sites in a European context. Even though there are no commercial carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) projects in Norway and the North Sea, there is scientific literature linking CO2 -EOR and CCS in this geographical region. CO2 -EOR utilizes CO2 to extract additional oil, counteracting the climate change mitigation purpose of geological storage. This review article explores how CCS is represented in the scientific literature on CO2-EOR in the North Sea and Norway, with a focus on system synergies and contradictions in relation to climate change mitigation. The main themes in the scientific literature on CO2-EOR in the North Sea are climate change, economics, and geological feasibility. Monitoring, safety, and leakage in addition to transportation of CO2 are less salient. The results show that there are contrasting framings in the literature. One framing is that CO2-EOR is a gateway to large-scale storage which maintains, or even expands, the extraction of fossil fuels and contributes to a sustainable transition in the long run through knowledge building and shared infrastructure. In contrast, another framing is that CO2- EOR combined with CCS have goal conflicts and are therefore not compatible, illustrating complexities with geological storage. Finally, this study reflects on how techno-economic research on CO2 storage in the North Sea and Norway is furthered through critical social science perspectives.
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| 32. |
- Schenuit, Felix, et al.
(author)
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Carbon Dioxide Removal Policy in the Making : Assessing Developments in 9 OECD Cases
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553.
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, spurred by the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, net zero emission targets have emerged as a new organizing principle of climate policy. In this context, climate policymakers and stakeholders have been shifting their attention to carbon dioxide removal (CDR) as an inevitable component of net zero targets. The importance of CDR would increase further if countries and other entities set net-negative emissions targets. The scientific literature on CDR governance and policy is still rather scarce, with empirical case studies and comparisons largely missing. Based on an analytical framework that draws on the multi-level perspective of sociotechnical transitions as well as existing work on CDR governance, we gathered and assessed empirical material until early 2021 from 9 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) cases: the European Union and three of its Member States (Ireland, Germany, and Sweden), Norway, the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States. Based on a synthesis of differences and commonalities, we propose a tripartite conceptual typology of the varieties of CDR policymaking: (1) incremental modification of existing national policy mixes, (2) early integration of CDR policy that treats emission reductions and removals as fungible, and (3) proactive CDR policy entrepreneurship with support for niche development. Although these types do not necessarily cover all dimensions relevant for CDR policy and are based on a limited set of cases, the conceptual typology might spur future comparative work as well as more fine-grained case-studies on established and emerging CDR policies.
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| 33. |
- Svensson, Elin, 1980, et al.
(author)
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Potential for Negative Emissions by Carbon Capture and Storage From a Novel Electric Plasma Calcination Process for Pulp and Paper Mills
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The pulp and paper industry has a high potential to contribute to negative emissions through carbon capture and storage (CCS) applied to existing processes. However, there is a need to investigate how CCS solutions also can be combined with implementation of other emerging technologies in pulp and paper mills. This paper investigates the integration of a novel calcination process in two kraft mills and evaluates its potential combination with capture and storage of CO2 from the calcination plant. The alternative calcination process uses electric gas-plasma technology combined with steam slaking and allows replacing the conventional fuel-driven lime kilns with a process driven by electricity. The novel calcination process generates a pure, biogenic, CO2 stream, which provides an opportunity to achieve negative emissions at relatively lower costs. The potential reduction of greenhouse gas emissions when replacing the lime kiln with the plasma calcination concept depends strongly on the emissions intensity of grid electricity, and on whether fossil fuel or biomass was used as a fuel in the lime kiln. If fossil fuel is replaced and electricity is associated with very low emissions, avoided CO2 emissions reach ~50 kt/a for the smaller mill investigated in the paper (ca 400 kt pulp per year) and almost 100 kt/a for the larger mill (ca 700 kt pulp per year). Further emission reductions could then be achieved through CCS from the electrified calcination process, with capture potentials for the two mills of 95 and 164 kt/a, respectively, and capture and storage costs estimated to 36–60 EUR/tCO2.
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| 34. |
- Velander, Sara, et al.
(author)
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Leveraging windows of opportunity for expertise to matter in global environmental governance: insights from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
- 2024
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In: FRONTIERS IN CLIMATE. - 2624-9553. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IntroductionWhether and under what conditions scientific knowledge provided by experts actually leads to political action is a question that academic research in various fields have focused on at length, without reaching a definitive answer. The position of expertise is especially delicate within the global environmental governance sphere containing multiple values, worldviews and epistemological standpoints.MethodsFirstly, we developed a theoretical model to examine how contextual factors, like institutional design and boundary work dynamics, contribute to expertise influencing global environmental governance. Secondly, we applied this model to the case of the Science Policy Interface to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD SPI), using data from semi-structured interviews with SPI stakeholders and participant observation of meetings.ResultsWe identified specific dimensions of the SPI mandate that enabled expertise to matter: inclusive membership of practitioners, close interaction between experts and political actors, coordination with other advisory bodies, regular reviews, and a small group size. However, after underpinning the prevailing differences in power between SPI experts and member states in their interactions, we found that international environmental decision-making and its national-level implementation remain ultimately and inevitably subordinated to political actors, making it less likely for expertise to have a significant impact.DiscussionInternational expertise for sustainable development can only take advantage of the rare "windows of opportunity" that intergovernmental processes concede for experts to influence policy.
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| 35. |
- Yacout, Dalia M. M., et al.
(author)
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Socio-economic implications of forest-based biofuels for marine transportation in the Arctic : Sweden as a case study
- 2024
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9553. ; 6
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Arctic melting is an effect of climate change; the use of fossil fuels in marine shipping emits large amounts of air emissions that impact climate change, and Arctic aquatic and human life. Swedish pulp and paper mills generate large amounts of waste and side streams that could be utilized. The production of forest-based biofuel may be a promising solution to achieve sustainable Arctic marine shipping. This review highlights the socio-economic impacts associated with the production of forest-based biofuel in Sweden, the related opportunities, challenges, knowledge gaps, and further need of research. From the economic perspective, it was found that the production and use of forest-based biofuel have short and long-term economic sustainability benefits: (a) short-term benefits, the use of the waste and side streams of the pulp and paper industry is a low-cost available feedstock, unlike first-generation biofuel from crops like corn forest-based biofuels neither require additional land use, water resources nor compete with food. (b) Long-term benefits: (i) the Swedish shipping sector depends on imported fossil fuels, these new biofuels can replace partly those imported fossil fuels that will reduce shipping costs, and generate economic benefits for local consumers. (ii) Usage of forest-based biofuels as blends with conventional fuels in existing engines will reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Arctic shipping to the set limits in the region. (iii) One of the important socio-economic impacts of forest-based biofuel production and use is the new job creation and employment opportunities that will impact the local communities and livelihoods of indigenous people in the area. From a societal perspective, stakeholder involvement is essential to address the sustainability challenges of biofuel production: EU policymakers need to encourage the production and use of biofuels by developing policies that promote biofuel use. Further studies are needed to develop more efficient and low-cost biofuel production routes, more investments in related research and development are required as well. Local indigenous communities must be involved in the decision-making process through surveys, local dialogues, and research studies. The production of forest-based biofuels has great potential and many social-economic impacts alongside the environmental benefits.
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| 36. |
- Yang, Jinxi, 1990, et al.
(author)
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Financing the Transition Toward Carbon Neutrality—an Agent-Based Approach to Modeling Investment Decisions in the Electricity System
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Transitioning to a low-carbon electricity system requires investments on a very large scale. These investments require access to capital, but that access can be challenging to obtain. Most energy system models do not (explicitly) model investment financing and thereby fail to take this challenge into account. In this study, we develop an agent-based model, where we explicitly include power sector investment financing. We find that different levels of financing constraints and capital availabilities noticeably impact companies' investment choices and economic performances and that this, in turn, impacts the development of the electricity capacity mix and the pace at which CO2 emissions are reduced. Limited access to capital can delay investments in low-carbon technologies. However, if the financing constraint is too relaxed, the risk of going bankrupt can increase. In general, companies that anticipate carbon prices too high above or too far below the actual development, along with those that use a low hurdle rate, are the ones that are more likely to go bankrupt. Emissions are cut more rapidly when the carbon tax grows faster, but there is overall a greater tendency for agents to go bankrupt when the tax grows faster. Our energy transition model may be particularly useful in the context of the least financially developed markets.
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| 37. |
- Zetterberg, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Incentivizing BECCS - A Swedish Case Study
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Climate. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2624-9553. ; 3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Negative carbon dioxide (CO2)-emissions are prevalent in most global emissions pathways that meet the Paris temperature targets and are a critical component for reaching net-zero emissions in Year 2050. However, economic incentives supporting commercialization and deployment of BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) are missing. This Policy and Practice Review discusses five different models for creating incentives and financing for BECCS, using Sweden as an example: (1) governmental guarantees for purchasing BECCS outcomes; (2) quota obligation on selected sectors to acquire BECCS outcomes; (3) allowing BECCS credits to compensate for hard-to-abate emissions within the EU ETS; (4) private entities for voluntary compensation; and (5) other states acting as buyers of BECCS outcomes to meet their mitigation targets under the Paris Agreement. We conclude that successful implementation of BECCS is likely to require a combination of several of the Policy Models, implemented in a sequential manner. The governmental guarantee model (Model 1) is likely to be required in the shorter term, so as to establish BECCS. Policy Models 2 and 3 may become more influential over time once BECCS has been established and accepted. Model 3 links BECCS to a large carbon-pricing regime with opportunities for cost-effectiveness and expanded financing. We conclude that Policy Models 4 and 5 are associated with high levels of uncertainty regarding the timing and volume of negative emissions that can be expected—Thus, they are unlikely to trigger BECCS implementation in the short term, although may have roles in the longer term. Based on this study, we recommend that policymakers carefully consider a policy sequencing approach that is predictable and sustainable over time, for which further analyses are required. It is not obvious how such sequencing can be arranged, as the capacities to implement the different Policy Models are vested in different organizations (national governments, EU, private firms). Furthermore, it is important that a BECCS policy is part of an integrated climate policy framework, in particular one that is in line with policies aimed at the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the creation of a circular economy. It will be important to ensure that BECCS and the associated biomass resource are not overexploited. A well-designed policy package should guarantee that BECCS is neither used to postpone the reduction of fossil fuel-based emissions nor overused in the short term as a niche business for “greenwashing” while not addressing fossil fuel emissions.
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