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1.
  • Hay, S. I., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Vos, T., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • In: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al. (author)
  • State of the Climate in 2011
  • 2012
  • In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
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  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (author)
  • STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
  • 2018
  • In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)
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  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (author)
  • State of the Climate in 2016
  • 2017
  • In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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  • Arking, D. E., et al. (author)
  • Genetic association study of QT interval highlights role for calcium signaling pathways in myocardial repolarization
  • 2014
  • In: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 46:8, s. 826-836
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The QT interval, an electrocardiographic measure reflecting myocardial repolarization, is a heritable trait. QT prolongation is a risk factor for ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD) and could indicate the presence of the potentially lethal mendelian long-QT syndrome (LQTS). Using a genome-wide association and replication study in up to 100,000 individuals, we identified 35 common variant loci associated with QT interval that collectively explain ∼ 8-10% of QT-interval variation and highlight the importance of calcium regulation in myocardial repolarization. Rare variant analysis of 6 new QT interval-associated loci in 298 unrelated probands with LQTS identified coding variants not found in controls but of uncertain causality and therefore requiring validation. Several newly identified loci encode proteins that physically interact with other recognized repolarization proteins. Our integration of common variant association, expression and orthogonal protein-protein interaction screens provides new insights into cardiac electrophysiology and identifies new candidate genes for ventricular arrhythmias, LQTS and SCD. © 2014 Nature America, Inc.
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  • Blunden, Jessica, et al. (author)
  • State of the Climate in 2012
  • 2013
  • In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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  • Vos, Theo, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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  • Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (author)
  • 2020
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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  • Blunden, Jessica, et al. (author)
  • State of the climate in 2013
  • 2014
  • In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 95
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • © 2014, American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved. In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Niña or El Niño events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth’s surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemisphere had record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957. At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year, leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during winter across Eurasia were followed by warm spring temperature anomalies, which were linked to a new record low Eurasian snow cover extent in May. Minimum sea ice extent in the Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years. Antarctica, on the other hand, had above-average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days of new daily high extent records, including a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km2 reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013. The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt content in nearsurface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3.2 mm yr-1 over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr-1) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as well as to ongoing contributions from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (87.5 m s-1) on 7 November, the highest wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan as it made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs, increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all continued to increase in 2013. As in previous years, each of these major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high concentrations. In the Arctic, carbon dioxide and methane increased at the same rate as the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence of increases in Arctic sources, such as thawing permafrost. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurements began in 1958, the daily average mixing ratio of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th edition of the State of the Climate series.
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19.
  • Aaron-Morrison, Arlene P., et al. (author)
  • State of the climate in 2014
  • 2015
  • In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 96
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Most of the dozens of essential climate variables monitored each year in this report continued to follow their long-term trends in 2014, with several setting new records. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-the major greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-once again all reached record high average atmospheric concentrations for the year. Carbon dioxide increased by 1.9 ppm to reach a globally averaged value of 397.2 ppm for 2014. Altogether, 5 major and 15 minor greenhouse gases contributed 2.94 W m-2 of direct radiative forcing, which is 36% greater than their contributions just a quarter century ago. Accompanying the record-high greenhouse gas concentrations was nominally the highest annual global surface temperature in at least 135 years of modern record keeping, according to four independent observational analyses. The warmth was distributed widely around the globe's land areas, Europe observed its warmest year on record by a large margin, with close to two dozen countries breaking their previous national temperature records; many countries in Asia had annual temperatures among their 10 warmest on record; Africa reported above-average temperatures across most of the continent throughout 2014; Australia saw its third warmest year on record, following record heat there in 2013; Mexico had its warmest year on record; and Argentina and Uruguay each had their second warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to observe a below-average annual temperature. But it was the oceans that drove the record global surface temperature in 2014. Although 2014 was largely ENSO-neutral, the globally averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean where SST anomalies signaled a transition from a negative to positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. In the winter of 2013/14, unusually warm water in the northeast Pacific was associated with elevated ocean heat content anomalies and elevated sea level in the region. Globally, upper ocean heat content was record high for the year, reflecting the continued increase of thermal energy in the oceans, which absorb over 90% of Earth's excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing. Owing to both ocean warming and land ice melt contributions, global mean sea level in 2014 was also record high and 67 mm greater than the 1993 annual mean, when satellite altimetry measurements began. Sea surface salinity trends over the past decade indicate that salty regions grew saltier while fresh regions became fresher, suggestive of an increased hydrological cycle over the ocean expected with global warming. As in previous years, these patterns are reflected in 2014 subsurface salinity anomalies as well. With a now decade-long trans-basin instrument array along 26°N, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows a decrease in transport of-4.2 ± 2.5 Sv decade-1. Precipitation was quite variable across the globe. On balance, precipitation over the world's oceans was above average, while below average across land surfaces. Drought continued in southeastern Brazil and the western United States. Heavy rain during April-June led to devastating floods in Canada's Eastern Prairies. Above-normal summer monsoon rainfall was observed over the southern coast of West Africa, while drier conditions prevailed over the eastern Sahel. Generally, summer monsoon rainfall over eastern Africa was above normal, except in parts of western South Sudan and Ethiopia. The south Asian summer monsoon in India was below normal, with June record dry. Across the major tropical cyclone basins, 91 named storms were observed during 2014, above the 1981-2010 global average of 82. The Eastern/Central Pacific and South Indian Ocean basins experienced significantly above-normal activity in 2014; all other basins were either at or below normal. The 22 named storms in the Eastern/Central Pacific was the basin's most since 1992. Similar to 2013, the North Atlantic season was quieter than most years of the last two decades with respect to the number of storms, despite the absence of El Niño conditions during both years. In higher latitudes and at higher elevations, increased warming continued to be visible in the decline of glacier mass balance, increasing permafrost temperatures, and a deeper thawing layer in seasonally frozen soil. In the Arctic, the 2014 temperature over land areas was the fourth highest in the 115-year period of record and snow melt occurred 20-30 days earlier than the 1998-2010 average. The Greenland Ice Sheet experienced extensive melting in summer 2014. The extent of melting was above the 1981-2010 average for 90% of the melt season, contributing to the second lowest average summer albedo over Greenland since observations began in 2000 and a record-low albedo across the ice sheet for August. On the North Slope of Alaska, new record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. In September, Arctic minimum sea ice extent was the sixth lowest since satellite records began in 1979. The eight lowest sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years. Conversely, in the Antarctic, sea ice extent countered its declining trend and set several new records in 2014, including record high monthly mean sea ice extent each month from April to November. On 20 September, a record large daily Antarctic sea ice extent of 20.14 × 106 km2 occurred. The 2014 Antarctic stratospheric ozone hole was 20.9 million km2 when averaged from 7 September to 13 October, the sixth smallest on record and continuing a decrease, albeit statistically insignificant, in area since 1998.
  •  
20.
  • Bernal, Ximena E., et al. (author)
  • Empowering Latina scientists
  • 2019
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 363:6429, s. 825-826
  • Journal article (other academic/artistic)
  •  
21.
  • Drezner, J. A., et al. (author)
  • International criteria for electrocardiographic interpretation in athletes: Consensus statement
  • 2017
  • In: Br J Sports Med. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674. ; 51:9, s. 704-731
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of mortality in athletes during sport. A variety of mostly hereditary, structural or electrical cardiac disorders are associated with SCD in young athletes, the majority of which can be identified or suggested by abnormalities on a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Whether used for diagnostic or screening purposes, physicians responsible for the cardiovascular care of athletes should be knowledgeable and competent in ECG interpretation in athletes. However, in most countries a shortage of physician expertise limits wider application of the ECG in the care of the athlete. A critical need exists for physician education in modern ECG interpretation that distinguishes normal physiological adaptations in athletes from distinctly abnormal findings suggestive of underlying pathology. Since the original 2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations for ECG interpretation in athletes, ECG standards have evolved quickly, advanced by a growing body of scientific data and investigations that both examine proposed criteria sets and establish new evidence to guide refinements. On 26-27 February 2015, an international group of experts in sports cardiology, inherited cardiac disease, and sports medicine convened in Seattle, Washington (USA), to update contemporary standards for ECG interpretation in athletes. The objective of the meeting was to define and revise ECG interpretation standards based on new and emerging research and to develop a clear guide to the proper evaluation of ECG abnormalities in athletes. This statement represents an international consensus for ECG interpretation in athletes and provides expert opinion-based recommendations linking specific ECG abnormalities and the secondary evaluation for conditions associated with SCD.
  •  
22.
  • Sharma, S., et al. (author)
  • International Recommendations for Electrocardiographic Interpretation in Athletes
  • 2017
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 69:8, s. 1057-1075
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of mortality in athletes during sport. A variety of mostly hereditary, structural, or electrical cardiac disorders are associated with SCD in young athletes, the majority of which can be identified or suggested by abnormalities on a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Whether used for diagnostic or screening purposes, physicians responsible for the cardiovascular care of athletes should be knowledgeable and competent in ECG interpretation in athletes. However, in most countries a shortage of physician expertise limits wider application of the ECG in the care of the athlete. A critical need exists for physician education in modern ECG interpretation that distinguishes normal physiological adaptations in athletes from distinctly abnormal findings suggestive of underlying pathology. Since the original 2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations for ECG interpretation in athletes, ECG standards have evolved quickly over the last decade; pushed by a growing body of scientific data that both tests proposed criteria sets and establishes new evidence to guide refinements. On February 26-27, 2015, an international group of experts in sports cardiology, inherited cardiac disease, and sports medicine convened in Seattle, Washington, to update contemporary standards for ECG interpretation in athletes. The objective of the meeting was to define and revise ECG interpretation standards based on new and emerging research and to develop a clear guide to the proper evaluation of ECG abnormalities in athletes. This statement represents an international consensus for ECG interpretation in athletes and provides expert opinion-based recommendations linking specific ECG abnormalities and the secondary evaluation for conditions associated with SCD. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of American College of Cardiology Foundation. All rights reserved.
  •  
23.
  • Sharma, S., et al. (author)
  • International recommendations for electrocardiographic interpretation in athletes
  • 2018
  • In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 39:16, s. 1466-1480
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of mortality in athletes during sport. A variety of mostly hereditary, structural, or electrical cardiac disorders are associated with SCD in young athletes, the majority of which can be identified or suggested by abnormalities on a resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Whether used for diagnostic or screening purposes, physicians responsible for the cardiovascular care of athletes should be knowledgeable and competent in ECG interpretation in athletes. However, in most countries a shortage of physician expertise limits wider application of the ECG in the care of the athlete. A critical need exists for physician education in modern ECG interpretation that distinguishes normal physiological adaptations in athletes from distinctly abnormal findings suggestive of underlying pathology. Since the original 2010 European Society of Cardiology recommendations for ECG interpretation in athletes, ECG standards have evolved quickly over the last decade; pushed by a growing body of scientific data that both tests proposed criteria sets and establishes new evidence to guide refinements. On 26-27 February 2015, an international group of experts in sports cardiology, inherited cardiac disease, and sports medicine convened in Seattle, Washington, to update contemporary standards for ECG interpretation in athletes. The objective of the meeting was to define and revise ECG interpretation standards based on new and emerging research and to develop a clear guide to the proper evaluation of ECG abnormalities in athletes. This statement represents an international consensus for ECG interpretation in athletes and provides expert opinion-based recommendations linking specific ECG abnormalities and the secondary evaluation for conditions associated with SCD.
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24.
  • Ackerman, I. N., et al. (author)
  • Lifetime Risk of Primary Total Hip Replacement Surgery for Osteoarthritis From 2003 to 2013: A Multinational Analysis Using National Registry Data
  • 2017
  • In: Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken). - : Wiley. - 2151-464X. ; 69:11, s. 1659-1667
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To compare the lifetime risk of total hip replacement (THR) surgery for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. METHODS: Data on primary THR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Life tables and population data were also obtained for each country. Lifetime risk of THR was calculated for 2003 and 2013 using registry, life table, and population data. RESULTS: In 2003, lifetime risk of THR ranged from 8.7% (Denmark) to 15.9% (Norway) for females, and from 6.3% (Denmark) to 8.6% (Finland) for males. With the exception of females in Norway (where lifetime risk started and remained high), lifetime risk of THR increased significantly for both sexes in all countries from 2003 to 2013. In 2013, lifetime risk of THR was as high as 1 in 7 women in Norway, and 1 in 10 men in Finland. Females consistently demonstrated the highest lifetime risk of THR at both time points. Notably, lifetime risk for females in Norway was approximately double the risk for males in 2003 (females 15.9% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 15.6-16.1], males 6.9% [95% CI 6.7-7.1]), and 2013 (females 16.0% [95% CI 15.8-16.3], males 8.3% [95% CI 8.1-8.5]). CONCLUSION: Using representative, population-based data, this study found statistically significant increases in the lifetime risk of THR in 5 countries over a 10-year period, and substantial between-sex differences. These multinational risk estimates can inform resource planning for OA service delivery.
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25.
  • Perez-Escobar, Oscar A., et al. (author)
  • The origin and speciation of orchids
  • 2024
  • In: NEW PHYTOLOGIST. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137.
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Orchids constitute one of the most spectacular radiations of flowering plants. However, their origin, spread across the globe, and hotspots of speciation remain uncertain due to the lack of an up-to-date phylogeographic analysis. We present a new Orchidaceae phylogeny based on combined high-throughput and Sanger sequencing data, covering all five subfamilies, 17/22 tribes, 40/49 subtribes, 285/736 genera, and c. 7% (1921) of the 29 524 accepted species, and use it to infer geographic range evolution, diversity, and speciation patterns by adding curated geographical distributions from the World Checklist of Vascular Plants. The orchids' most recent common ancestor is inferred to have lived in Late Cretaceous Laurasia. The modern range of Apostasioideae, which comprises two genera with 16 species from India to northern Australia, is interpreted as relictual, similar to that of numerous other groups that went extinct at higher latitudes following the global climate cooling during the Oligocene. Despite their ancient origin, modern orchid species diversity mainly originated over the last 5 Ma, with the highest speciation rates in Panama and Costa Rica. These results alter our understanding of the geographic origin of orchids, previously proposed as Australian, and pinpoint Central America as a region of recent, explosive speciation.
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26.
  • Walsh, Roddy, et al. (author)
  • Enhancing rare variant interpretation in inherited arrhythmias through quantitative analysis of consortium disease cohorts and population controls
  • 2021
  • In: Genetics in Medicine. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1098-3600 .- 1530-0366. ; 23:1, s. 47-58
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Purpose: Stringent variant interpretation guidelines can lead to high rates of variants of uncertain significance (VUS) for genetically heterogeneous disease like long QT syndrome (LQTS) and Brugada syndrome (BrS). Quantitative and disease-specific customization of American College of Medical Genetics and Genomics/Association for Molecular Pathology (ACMG/AMP) guidelines can address this false negative rate.Methods: We compared rare variant frequencies from 1847 LQTS (KCNQ1/KCNH2/SCN5A) and 3335 BrS (SCN5A) cases from the International LQTS/BrS Genetics Consortia to population-specific gnomAD data and developed disease-specific criteria for ACMG/AMP evidence classes-rarity (PM2/BS1 rules) and case enrichment of individual (PS4) and domain-specific (PM1) variants.Results: Rare SCN5A variant prevalence differed between European (20.8%) and Japanese (8.9%) BrS patients (p = 5.7 x 10(-18)) and diagnosis with spontaneous (28.7%) versus induced (15.8%) Brugada type 1 electrocardiogram (ECG) (p = 1.3 x 10(-13)). Ion channel transmembrane regions and specific N-terminus (KCNH2) and C-terminus (KCNQ1/KCNH2) domains were characterized by high enrichment of case variants and >95% probability of pathogenicity. Applying the customized rules, 17.4% of European BrS and 74.8% of European LQTS cases had (likely) pathogenic variants, compared with estimated diagnostic yields (case excess over gnomAD) of 19.2%/82.1%, reducing VUS prevalence to close to background rare variant frequency.Conclusion: Large case-control data sets enable quantitative implementation of ACMG/AMP guidelines and increased sensitivity for inherited arrhythmia genetic testing.
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27.
  • Ackerman, I. N., et al. (author)
  • Substantial rise in the lifetime risk of primary total knee replacement surgery for osteoarthritis from 2003 to 2013: an international, population-level analysis
  • 2017
  • In: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage. - : Elsevier BV. - 1063-4584. ; 25:4, s. 455-461
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objective: To estimate and compare the lifetime risk of total knee replacement surgery (TKR) for osteoarthritis (OA) between countries, and over time. Method: Data on primary TKR procedures performed for OA in 2003 and 2013 were extracted from national arthroplasty registries in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Life tables and population data were also obtained for each country. Lifetime risk of TKR was calculated for 2003 and 2013 using registry, life table and population data. Results: Marked international variation in lifetime risk of TKR was evident, with females consistently demonstrating the greatest risk. In 2013, Finland had the highest lifetime risk for females (22.8%, 95% CI 22.5-23.1%) and Australia had the highest risk for males (15.4%, 95% CI 15.1-15.6%). Norway had the lowest lifetime risk for females (9.7%, 95% CI 9.5-9.9%) and males (5.8%, 95% CI 5.6-5.9%) in 2013. All countries showed a significant rise in lifetime risk of TKR for both sexes over the 10-year study period, with the largest increases observed in Australia (females: from 13.6% to 21.1%; males: from 9.8% to 15.4%). Conclusions: Using population-based data, this study identified significant increases in the lifetime risk of TKR in all five countries from 2003 to 2013. Lifetime risk of TKR was as high as 1 in 5 women in Finland, and 1 in 7 males in Australia. These risk estimates quantify the healthcare resource burden of knee OA at the population level, providing an important resource for public health policy development and healthcare planning. (C) 2016 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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28.
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29.
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30.
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31.
  • Barsheshet, Alon, et al. (author)
  • Mutations in Cytoplasmic Loops of the KCNQ1 Channel and the Risk of Life-Threatening Events Implications for Mutation-Specific Response to beta-Blocker Therapy in Type 1 Long-QT Syndrome
  • 2012
  • In: Circulation. - 1524-4539. ; 125:16, s. 1988-1988
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background-beta-Adrenergic stimulation is the main trigger for cardiac events in type 1 long-QT syndrome (LQT1). We evaluated a possible association between ion channel response to beta-adrenergic stimulation and clinical response to beta-blocker therapy according to mutation location. Methods and Results-The study sample comprised 860 patients with genetically confirmed mutations in the KCNQ1 channel. Patients were categorized into carriers of missense mutations located in the cytoplasmic loops (C loops), membrane-spanning domain, C/N terminus, and nonmissense mutations. There were 27 aborted cardiac arrest and 78 sudden cardiac death events from birth through 40 years of age. After multivariable adjustment for clinical factors, the presence of C-loop mutations was associated with the highest risk for aborted cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio versus nonmissense mutations = 2.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-5.86; P=0.009). beta-Blocker therapy was associated with a significantly greater reduction in the risk of aborted cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death among patients with C-loop mutations than among all other patients (hazard ratio=0.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.73; P=0.02; and hazard ratio=0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-2.13; P=0.68, respectively; P for interaction=0.04). Cellular expression studies showed that membrane spanning and C-loop mutations produced a similar decrease in current, but only C-loop mutations showed a pronounced reduction in channel activation in response to beta-adrenergic stimulation. Conclusions-Patients with C-loop missense mutations in the KCNQ1 channel exhibit a high risk for life-threatening events and derive a pronounced benefit from treatment with beta-blockers. Reduced channel activation after sympathetic activation can explain the increased clinical risk and response to therapy in patients with C-loop mutations. (Circulation. 2012; 125: 1988-1996.)
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32.
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33.
  • Cuneo, Bettina F., et al. (author)
  • Mothers with long QT syndrome are at increased risk for fetal death : findings from a multicenter international study
  • 2020
  • In: American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : MOSBY-ELSEVIER. - 0002-9378 .- 1097-6868. ; 222:3, s. 1-11
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Most fetal deaths are unexplained. Long QT syndrome is a genetic disorder of cardiac ion channels. Affected individuals, including fetuses, are predisposed to sudden death. We sought to determine the risk of fetal death in familial long QT syndrome, in which the mother or father carries the long QT syndrome genotype. In addition, we assessed whether risk differed if the long QT syndrome genotype was inherited from the mother or father. OBJECTIVE: This was a retrospective review of pregnancies in families with the 3 most common heterozygous pathogenic long QT syndrome genotypes in KCNQ1 (LQT1), KCNH2 (LQT2), or SCN5A (LQT3), which occur in approximately 1 in 2000 individuals. The purpose of our study was to compare pregnancy and birth outcomes in familial long QT syndrome with the normal population and between maternal and paternal carriers of the long QT syndrome genotype. We hypothesized that fetal death before (miscarriage) and after (stillbirths) 20 weeks gestation would be increased in familial long QT syndrome compared with the normal population and that the parent of origin would not affect birth outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Our study was a multicenter observational case series of 148 pregnancies from 103 families (80 mothers, 23 fathers) with familial long QT syndrome (60 with LQT1, 29 with LQT2, 14 with LQT3) who were recruited from 11 international centers with expertise in hereditary heart rhythm diseases, pediatric and/or adult electrophysiology, and high-risk pregnancies. Clinical data-bases from these sites were reviewed for long QT syndrome that occurred in men or women of childbearing age (18-40 years). Pregnancy outcomes (livebirth, stillbirth, and miscarriage), birthweights, and gestational age at delivery were compared among long QT syndrome genotypes and between maternal vs paternal long QT syndrome-affected status with the use of logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Most offspring (80%; 118/148) were liveborn at term; 66% of offspring (73/110) had long QT syndrome. Newborn infants of mothers with long QT syndrome were delivered earlier and, when the data were controlled for gestational age, weighed less than newborn infants of long QT syndrome fathers. Fetal arrhythmias were observed rarely, but stillbirths (fetal death at >20 weeks gestation) were 8 times more frequent in long QT syndrome (4% vs approximately 0.5%); miscarriages (fetal death at <= 20 weeks gestation) were 2 times that of the general population (16% vs 8%). The likelihood of fetal death was significantly greater with maternal vs paternal long QT syndrome (24.4% vs 3.4%; P = .036). Only 10% of all fetal deaths underwent postmortem long QT syndrome testing; 2 of 3 cases were positive for the family long QT syndrome genotype. CONCLUSION: This is the first report to demonstrate that mothers with long QT syndrome are at increased risk of fetal death and to uncover a previously unreported cause of stillbirth. Our results suggest that maternal effects of long QT syndrome channelopathy may cause placental or myometrial dysfunction that confers increased susceptibility to fetal death and growth restriction in newborn survivors, regardless of long QT syndrome status.
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34.
  • Clur, Sally-Ann B, et al. (author)
  • Left Ventricular Isovolumetric Relaxation Time Is Prolonged in Fetal Long-QT Syndrome
  • 2018
  • In: Circulation. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 1941-3149 .- 1941-3084. ; 11:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Long-QT syndrome (LQTS), an inherited cardiac repolarization disorder, is an important cause of fetal and neonatal mortality. Detecting LQTS prenatally is challenging. A fetal heart rate (FHR) less than third percentile for gestational age is specific for LQTS, but the sensitivity is only ≈50%. Left ventricular isovolumetric relaxation time (LVIRT) was evaluated as a potential diagnostic marker for fetal LQTS.METHODS AND RESULTS: <0.001), as was the N-LVIRT. The best cutoff to diagnose LQTS was N-LVIRT ≥11.3 at ≤20 weeks (92% sensitivity, 70% specificity). Simultaneous analysis of N-LVIRT and FHR improved the sensitivity and specificity for LQTS (area under the curve=0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.00 at 21-30 weeks). N-LVIRT, LV myocardial performance index, and FHR trends differed significantly between LQTS fetuses and controls through gestation.CONCLUSIONS: The LVIRT is prolonged in LQTS fetuses. Findings of a prolonged N-LVIRT and sinus bradycardia can improve the prenatal detection of fetal LQTS.
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35.
  • Costa, Jason, et al. (author)
  • Combined assessment of sex- and mutation-specific information for risk stratification in type 1 long QT syndrome
  • 2012
  • In: Heart Rhythm. - : Elsevier BV. - 1547-5271. ; 9:6, s. 892-898
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Men and women with type 1 long QT syndrome (LQT1) exhibit time-dependent differences in the risk for cardiac events. OBJECTIVE We hypothesized that sex-specific risk for LQT1 is related to the location and function of the disease-causing mutation in the KCNQ1 gene. METHODS The risk for life-threatening cardiac events (comprising aborted cardiac arrest [ACA] or sudden cardiac death [SCD]) from birth through age 40 years was assessed among 1051 individuals with LQT1 (450 men and 601 women) by the location and function of the LQT1-causing mutation (prespecified as mutations in the intracellular domains linking the membrane-spanning segments [ie, S2-S3 and S4-S5 cytoplasmic loops] involved in adrenergic channel regulation vs other mutations). RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed that during childhood (age group: 0-13 years) men had >2-fold (P < .003) increased risk for ACA/SCD than did women, whereas after the onset of adolescence the risk for ACA/SCD was similar between men and women (hazard ratio = 0.89 [P = .64]). The presence of cytoplasmic-loop mutations was associated with a 2.7-fold (P < .001) increased risk for ACA/SCD among women, but it did not affect the risk among men (hazard ratio 1.37; P = .26). Time-dependent syncope was associated with a more pronounced risk-increase among men than among women (hazard ratio 4.73 [P < .001] and 2.43 [P = .02], respectively), whereas a prolonged corrected QT interval (>= 500 ms) was associated with a higher risk among women than among men. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the combined assessment of clinical and mutation location/functional data can be used to identify sex-specific risk factors for life-threatening events for patients with LQT1.
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36.
  • Drezner, Jonathan A, et al. (author)
  • Abnormal electrocardiographic findings in athletes : recognising changes suggestive of primary electrical disease.
  • 2013
  • In: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 47:3, s. 153-67
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Cardiac channelopathies are potentially lethal inherited arrhythmia syndromes and an important cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young athletes. Other cardiac rhythm and conduction disturbances also may indicate the presence of an underlying cardiac disorder. The 12-lead ECG is utilised as both a screening and a diagnostic tool for detecting conditions associated with SCD. Fundamental to the appropriate evaluation of athletes undergoing ECG is an understanding of the ECG findings that may indicate the presence of a pathological cardiac disease. This article describes ECG findings present in primary electrical diseases afflicting young athletes and outlines appropriate steps for further evaluation of these ECG abnormalities. The ECG findings defined as abnormal in athletes were established by an international consensus panel of experts in sports cardiology and sports medicine.
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37.
  • Drezner, Jonathan A, et al. (author)
  • Abnormal electrocardiographic findings in athletes : recognising changes suggestive of cardiomyopathy.
  • 2013
  • In: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 47:3, s. 137-52
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Cardiomyopathies are a heterogeneous group of heart muscle diseases and collectively are the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in young athletes. The 12-lead ECG is utilised as both a screening and diagnostic tool for detecting conditions associated with SCD. Fundamental to the appropriate evaluation of athletes undergoing ECG is an understanding of the ECG findings that may indicate the presence of an underlying pathological cardiac disorder. This article describes ECG findings present in cardiomyopathies afflicting young athletes and outlines appropriate steps for further evaluation of these ECG abnormalities. The ECG findings defined as abnormal in athletes were established by an international consensus panel of experts in sports cardiology and sports medicine.
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38.
  • Drezner, Jonathan A, et al. (author)
  • Electrocardiographic interpretation in athletes : the 'Seattle criteria'.
  • 2013
  • In: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 47:3, s. 122-4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of death in athletes during sport. Whether obtained for screening or diagnostic purposes, an ECG increases the ability to detect underlying cardiovascular conditions that may increase the risk for SCD. In most countries, there is a shortage of physician expertise in the interpretation of an athlete's ECG. A critical need exists for physician education in modern ECG interpretation that distinguishes normal physiological adaptations in athletes from abnormal findings suggestive of pathology. On 13-14 February 2012, an international group of experts in sports cardiology and sports medicine convened in Seattle, Washington, to define contemporary standards for ECG interpretation in athletes. The objective of the meeting was to develop a comprehensive training resource to help physicians distinguish normal ECG alterations in athletes from abnormal ECG findings that require additional evaluation for conditions associated with SCD.
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39.
  • Drezner, Jonathan A, et al. (author)
  • Normal electrocardiographic findings : recognising physiological adaptations in athletes.
  • 2013
  • In: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 47:3, s. 125-36
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Electrocardiographic changes in athletes are common and usually reflect benign structural and electrical remodelling of the heart as a physiological adaptation to regular and sustained physical training (athlete's heart). The ability to identify an abnormality on the 12-lead ECG, suggestive of underlying cardiac disease associated with sudden cardiac death (SCD), is based on a sound working knowledge of the normal ECG characteristics within the athletic population. This document will assist physicians in identifying normal ECG patterns commonly found in athletes. The ECG findings presented as normal in athletes were established by an international consensus panel of experts in sports cardiology and sports medicine.
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40.
  • Goldenberg, Ilan, et al. (author)
  • Risk for Life-Threatening Cardiac Events in Patients With Genotype-Confirmed Long-QT Syndrome and Normal-Range Corrected QT Intervals
  • 2010
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 57:1, s. 51-59
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objectives This study was designed to assess the clinical course and to identify risk factors for life-threatening events in patients with long-QT syndrome (LQTS) with normal corrected QT (QTc) intervals. Background Current data regarding the outcome of patients with concealed LQTS are limited. Methods Clinical and genetic risk factors for aborted cardiac arrest (ACA) or sudden cardiac death (SCD) from birth through age 40 years were examined in 3,386 genotyped subjects from 7 multinational LQTS registries, categorized as LQTS with normal-range QTc (<= 440 ms [n = 469]), LQTS with prolonged QTc interval (>440 ms [ n = 1,392]), and unaffected family members (genotyped negative with <= 440 ms [ n = 1,525]). Results The cumulative probability of ACA or SCD in patients with LQTS with normal-range QTc intervals (4%) was significantly lower than in those with prolonged QTc intervals (15%) (p < 0.001) but higher than in unaffected family members (0.4%) (p < 0.001). Risk factors ACA or SCD in patients with normal-range QTc intervals included mutation characteristics (transmembrane-missense vs. nontransmembrane or nonmissense mutations: hazard ratio: 6.32; p = 0.006) and the LQTS genotypes (LQTS type 1: LQTS type 2, hazard ratio: 9.88; p = 0.03; LQTS type 3: LQTS type 2, hazard ratio: 8.04; p = 0.07), whereas clinical factors, including sex and QTc duration, were associated with a significant increase in the risk for ACA or SCD only in patients with prolonged QTc intervals (female age >13 years, hazard ratio: 1.90; p = 0.002; QTc duration, 8% risk increase per 10-ms increment; p = 0.002). Conclusions Genotype-confirmed patients with concealed LQTS make up about 25% of the at-risk LQTS population. Genetic data, including information regarding mutation characteristics and the LQTS genotype, identify increased risk for ACA or SCD in this overall lower risk LQTS subgroup. (J Am Coll Cardiol 2011;57:51-9) (C) 2011 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
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41.
  • Kaizer, Alexander M., et al. (author)
  • Effects of cohort, genotype, variant, and maternal β-blocker treatment on foetal heart rate predictors of inherited long QT syndrome
  • 2023
  • In: Europace. - : Oxford University Press. - 1099-5129 .- 1532-2092. ; 25:11
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: In long QT syndrome (LQTS), primary prevention improves outcome; thus, early identification is key. The most common LQTS phenotype is a foetal heart rate (FHR) < 3rd percentile for gestational age (GA) but the effects of cohort, genotype, variant, and maternal β-blocker therapy on FHR are unknown. We assessed the influence of these factors on FHR in pregnancies with familial LQTS and developed a FHR/GA threshold for LQTS.METHODS AND RESULTS: In an international cohort of pregnancies in which one parent had LQTS, LQTS genotype, familial variant, and maternal β-blocker effects on FHR were assessed. We developed a testing algorithm for LQTS using FHR and GA as continuous predictors. Data included 1966 FHRs at 7-42 weeks' GA from 267 pregnancies/164 LQTS families [220 LQTS type 1 (LQT1), 35 LQTS type 2 (LQT2), and 12 LQTS type 3 (LQT3)]. The FHRs were significantly lower in LQT1 and LQT2 but not LQT3 or LQTS negative. The LQT1 variants with non-nonsense and severe function loss (current density or β-adrenergic response) had lower FHR. Maternal β-blockers potentiated bradycardia in LQT1 and LQT2 but did not affect FHR in LQTS negative. A FHR/GA threshold predicted LQT1 and LQT2 with 74.9% accuracy, 71% sensitivity, and 81% specificity.CONCLUSION: Genotype, LQT1 variant, and maternal β-blocker therapy affect FHR. A predictive threshold of FHR/GA significantly improves the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for LQT1 and LQT2, above the infant's a priori 50% probability. We speculate this model may be useful in screening for LQTS in perinatal subjects without a known LQTS family history.
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42.
  • Migdalovich, Dimitry, et al. (author)
  • Mutation and gender-specific risk in type 2 long QT syndrome: Implications for risk stratification for life-threatening cardiac events in patients with long QT syndrome
  • 2011
  • In: Heart Rhythm. - : Elsevier BV. - 1547-5271. ; 8:10, s. 1537-1543
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Men and women with type 2 long QT syndrome (LQT2) exhibit time-dependent differences in the risk for cardiac events. We hypothesized that data regarding the location of the disease-causing mutation in the KCNH2 channel may affect gender-specific risk in LQT2. OBJECTIVE This study sought to risk-stratify LQT2 patients for life-threatening cardiac events based on clinical and genetic information. METHODS The risk for life-threatening cardiac events from birth through age 40 years (comprising aborted cardiac arrest [ACA] or sudden cardiac death [SCD]) was assessed among 1,166 LQT2 male (n = 490) and female (n = 676) patients by the location of the LQTS-causing mutation in the KCNH2 channel (prespecified in the primary analysis as pore-loop vs. non-pore-loop). RESULTS During follow-up, the cumulative probability of life-threatening cardiac events years was significantly higher among LQT2 women (26%) as compared with men (14%; P <.001). Multivariate analysis showed that the risk for life-threatening cardiac events was not significantly different between women with and without pore-loop mutations (hazard ratio 1.20; P = .33). In contrast, men with pore-loop mutations displayed a significant > 2-fold higher risk of a first ACA or SCD as compared with those with non-pore-loop mutations (hazard ratio 2.18; P = .01). Consistently, women experienced a high rate of life-threatening events regardless of mutation location (pore-loop: 35%, nonpore-loop: 23%), whereas in men the rate of ACA or SCD was high among those with pore-loop mutations (28%) and relatively low among those with non-pore-loop mutations (8%). CONCLUSION Combined assessment of clinical and mutation-specific data can be used for improved risk stratification for life-threatening cardiac events in LQT2.
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43.
  • Alkaitis, Matthew S., et al. (author)
  • Decreased Rate of Plasma Arginine Appearance in Murine Malaria May Explain Hypoargininemia in Children With Cerebral Malaria
  • 2016
  • In: Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Oxford University Press. - 0022-1899 .- 1537-6613. ; 214:12, s. 1840-1849
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND:  Plasmodium infection depletes arginine, the substrate for nitric oxide synthesis, and impairs endothelium-dependent vasodilation. Increased conversion of arginine to ornithine by parasites or host arginase is a proposed mechanism of arginine depletion.METHODS:  We used high-performance liquid chromatography to measure plasma arginine, ornithine, and citrulline levels in Malawian children with cerebral malaria and in mice infected with Plasmodium berghei ANKA with or without the arginase gene. Heavy isotope-labeled tracers measured by quadrupole time-of-flight liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry were used to quantify the in vivo rate of appearance and interconversion of plasma arginine, ornithine, and citrulline in infected mice.RESULTS:  Children with cerebral malaria and P. berghei-infected mice demonstrated depletion of plasma arginine, ornithine, and citrulline. Knock out of Plasmodium arginase did not alter arginine depletion in infected mice. Metabolic tracer analysis demonstrated that plasma arginase flux was unchanged by P. berghei infection. Instead, infected mice exhibited decreased rates of plasma arginine, ornithine, and citrulline appearance and decreased conversion of plasma citrulline to arginine. Notably, plasma arginine use by nitric oxide synthase was decreased in infected mice.CONCLUSIONS:  Simultaneous arginine and ornithine depletion in malaria parasite-infected children cannot be fully explained by plasma arginase activity. Our mouse model studies suggest that plasma arginine depletion is driven primarily by a decreased rate of appearance.
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44.
  • Mathias, Andrew, et al. (author)
  • Prognostic implications of mutation-specific QTc standard deviation in congenital long QT syndrome
  • 2013
  • In: Heart Rhythm. - : Elsevier BV. - 1547-5271. ; 10:5, s. 720-725
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Individual corrected QT interval (QTc) may vary widely among carriers of the same long QT syndrome (LOTS) mutation. Currently, neither the mechanism nor the implications of this variable penetrance are well understood. OBJECTIVES To hypothesize that the assessment of QTc variance in patients with congenital LOTS who carry the same mutation provides incremental prognostic information on the patient-specific QTc. METHODS The study population comprised 1206 patients with LOTS with 95 different mutations and >= 5 individuals who carry the same mutation. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the effect of mutation-specific standard deviation of QTc (QTcSD) on the risk of cardiac events (comprising syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death) from birth through age 40 years in the total population and by genotype. RESULTS Assessment of mutation-specific QTcSD showed large differences among carriers of the same mutations (median QTcSD 45 ms). Multivariate analysis showed that each 20 ms increment in QTcSD was associated with a significant 33% (P=.002) increase in the risk of cardiac events after adjustment for the patient-specific QTc duration and the family effect on QTc. The risk associated with QTcSD was pronounced among patients with long QT syndrome type 1 (hazard ratio 1.55 per 20 ms increment; P<.001), whereas among patients with long QT syndrome type 2, the risk associated with QTcSD was not statistically significant (hazard ratio 0.99; P=.95; P value for QTcSD-by-genotype interaction=.002). CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that mutations with a wider variation in QTc duration are associated with increased risk of cardiac events. These findings appear to be genotype-specific, with a pronounced effect among patients with the long QT syndrome type 1 genotype.
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45.
  • Ostaszewski, Marek, et al. (author)
  • COVID19 Disease Map, a computational knowledge repository of virus-host interaction mechanisms
  • 2021
  • In: Molecular Systems Biology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1744-4292 .- 1744-4292. ; 17:10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We need to effectively combine the knowledge from surging literature with complex datasets to propose mechanistic models of SARS-CoV-2 infection, improving data interpretation and predicting key targets of intervention. Here, we describe a large-scale community effort to build an open access, interoperable and computable repository of COVID-19 molecular mechanisms. The COVID-19 Disease Map (C19DMap) is a graphical, interactive representation of disease-relevant molecular mechanisms linking many knowledge sources. Notably, it is a computational resource for graph-based analyses and disease modelling. To this end, we established a framework of tools, platforms and guidelines necessary for a multifaceted community of biocurators, domain experts, bioinformaticians and computational biologists. The diagrams of the C19DMap, curated from the literature, are integrated with relevant interaction and text mining databases. We demonstrate the application of network analysis and modelling approaches by concrete examples to highlight new testable hypotheses. This framework helps to find signatures of SARS-CoV-2 predisposition, treatment response or prioritisation of drug candidates. Such an approach may help deal with new waves of COVID-19 or similar pandemics in the long-term perspective.
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