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1.
  • Thomas, HS, et al. (author)
  • 2019
  • swepub:Mat__t
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  • Tran, K. B., et al. (author)
  • The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2022
  • In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Ikuta, K. S., et al. (author)
  • Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2022
  • In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10369, s. 2221-2248
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13.7 million (95% UI 10.9-17.1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7.7 million deaths (5.7-10.2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13.6% (10.2-18.1) of all global deaths and 56.2% (52.1-60.1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54.9% (52.9-56.9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52.2 deaths (37.4-71.5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Drake, TM, et al. (author)
  • Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in children: an international, multicentre, prospective cohort study
  • 2020
  • In: BMJ global health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 5:12
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common healthcare-associated infections (HAIs). However, there is a lack of data available about SSI in children worldwide, especially from low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of SSI in children and associations between SSI and morbidity across human development settings.MethodsA multicentre, international, prospective, validated cohort study of children aged under 16 years undergoing clean-contaminated, contaminated or dirty gastrointestinal surgery. Any hospital in the world providing paediatric surgery was eligible to contribute data between January and July 2016. The primary outcome was the incidence of SSI by 30 days. Relationships between explanatory variables and SSI were examined using multilevel logistic regression. Countries were stratified into high development, middle development and low development groups using the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI).ResultsOf 1159 children across 181 hospitals in 51 countries, 523 (45·1%) children were from high HDI, 397 (34·2%) from middle HDI and 239 (20·6%) from low HDI countries. The 30-day SSI rate was 6.3% (33/523) in high HDI, 12·8% (51/397) in middle HDI and 24·7% (59/239) in low HDI countries. SSI was associated with higher incidence of 30-day mortality, intervention, organ-space infection and other HAIs, with the highest rates seen in low HDI countries. Median length of stay in patients who had an SSI was longer (7.0 days), compared with 3.0 days in patients who did not have an SSI. Use of laparoscopy was associated with significantly lower SSI rates, even after accounting for HDI.ConclusionThe odds of SSI in children is nearly four times greater in low HDI compared with high HDI countries. Policies to reduce SSI should be prioritised as part of the wider global agenda.
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  • 2019
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Vos, Theo, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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18.
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19.
  • Middeldorp, Christel M., et al. (author)
  • The Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia : design, results and future prospects
  • 2019
  • In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 34:3, s. 279-300
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The impact of many unfavorable childhood traits or diseases, such as low birth weight and mental disorders, is not limited to childhood and adolescence, as they are also associated with poor outcomes in adulthood, such as cardiovascular disease. Insight into the genetic etiology of childhood and adolescent traits and disorders may therefore provide new perspectives, not only on how to improve wellbeing during childhood, but also how to prevent later adverse outcomes. To achieve the sample sizes required for genetic research, the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) and EArly Genetics and Lifecourse Epidemiology (EAGLE) consortia were established. The majority of the participating cohorts are longitudinal population-based samples, but other cohorts with data on early childhood phenotypes are also involved. Cohorts often have a broad focus and collect(ed) data on various somatic and psychiatric traits as well as environmental factors. Genetic variants have been successfully identified for multiple traits, for example, birth weight, atopic dermatitis, childhood BMI, allergic sensitization, and pubertal growth. Furthermore, the results have shown that genetic factors also partly underlie the association with adult traits. As sample sizes are still increasing, it is expected that future analyses will identify additional variants. This, in combination with the development of innovative statistical methods, will provide detailed insight on the mechanisms underlying the transition from childhood to adult disorders. Both consortia welcome new collaborations. Policies and contact details are available from the corresponding authors of this manuscript and/or the consortium websites.
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20.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2021
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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21.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (author)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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22.
  • Micah, Angela E., et al. (author)
  • Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
  • 2021
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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23.
  • Leymarie, N., et al. (author)
  • Interlaboratory Study on Differential Analysis of Protein Glycosylation by Mass Spectrometry: The ABRF Glycoprotein Research Multi-Institutional Study 2012
  • 2013
  • In: Molecular & Cellular Proteomics. - 1535-9476. ; 12:10, s. 2935-2951
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • One of the principal goals of glycoprotein research is to correlate glycan structure and function. Such correlation is necessary in order for one to understand the mechanisms whereby glycoprotein structure elaborates the functions of myriad proteins. The accurate comparison of glycoforms and quantification of glycosites are essential steps in this direction. Mass spectrometry has emerged as a powerful analytical technique in the field of glycoprotein characterization. Its sensitivity, high dynamic range, and mass accuracy provide both quantitative and sequence/structural information. As part of the 2012 ABRF Glycoprotein Research Group study, we explored the use of mass spectrometry and ancillary methodologies to characterize the glycoforms of two sources of human prostate specific antigen (PSA). PSA is used as a tumor marker for prostate cancer, with increasing blood levels used to distinguish between normal and cancer states. The glycans on PSA are believed to be biantennary N-linked, and it has been observed that prostate cancer tissues and cell lines contain more antennae than their benign counterparts. Thus, the ability to quantify differences in glycosylation associated with cancer has the potential to positively impact the use of PSA as a biomarker. We studied standard peptide-based proteomics/glycomics methodologies, including LC-MS/MS for peptide/glycopeptide sequencing and label-free approaches for differential quantification. We performed an interlaboratory study to determine the ability of different laboratories to correctly characterize the differences between glycoforms from two different sources using mass spectrometry methods. We used clustering analysis and ancillary statistical data treatment on the data sets submitted by participating laboratories to obtain a consensus of the glycoforms and abundances. The results demonstrate the relative strengths and weaknesses of top-down glycoproteomics, bottom-up glycoproteomics, and glycomics methods. T6G 2G2, Canada. [Cipollo, John F.; An, Yanming] US FDA, Ctr Biol Evaluat & Res, Bethesda, MD 20993 USA. [Desaire, Heather; Go, Eden P.] Univ Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA. [Goldman, Radoslav; Pompach, Petr; Sanda, Miloslav] Georgetown Univ, Dept Oncol, Washington, DC [Halim, Adnan; Larson, Goran; Nilsson, Jonas] Univ Gothenburg, Sahlgrenska Acad, Dept Clin Chem & [Hensbergen, Paul J.; Wuhrer, Manfred] Leiden Univ, Med Ctr, Biomol Mass Spectrometry Unit, NL- [Jabs, Wolfgang; Marx, Kristina; Resemann, Anja; Schweiger-Hufnagel, Ulrike; Suckau, Detlev] Bruker [Ly, Mellisa; Staples, Gregory O.] Agilent Technol, Agilent Labs, Santa Clara, CA 95051 USA. [Mechref, Yehia; Song, Ehwang] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Chem & Biochem, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA. [Nyalwidhe, Julius O.; Watson, Megan] Eastern Virginia Med Sch, Leroy T Canoles Jr Canc Res Ctr, Dept [Packer, Nicolle H.; Thaysen-Andersen, Morten] Macquarie Univ, Dept Chem & Biomol Sci, Biomol [Sihlbom, Carina] Gothenburg Univ, Prote Core Facil, Gothenburg, Sweden. [Tang, Haixu] Indiana Univ, Sch Informat, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. [Valmuv, Leena] Finnish Red Cross Blood Serv, Helsinki 00310, Finland. [Wada, Yoshinao] Osaka Med Ctr Maternal & Child Hlth, Res Inst, Izumi Ku, Osaka 5941101, Japan.
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24.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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25.
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26.
  • Roselli, Carolina, et al. (author)
  • Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study for atrial fibrillation
  • 2018
  • In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 50:9, s. 1225-1233
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects more than 33 million individuals worldwide(1) and has a complex heritability(2). We conducted the largest meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for AF to date, consisting of more than half a million individuals, including 65,446 with AF. In total, we identified 97 loci significantly associated with AF, including 67 that were novel in a combined-ancestry analysis, and 3 that were novel in a European-specific analysis. We sought to identify AF-associated genes at the GWAS loci by performing RNA-sequencing and expression quantitative trait locus analyses in 101 left atrial samples, the most relevant tissue for AF. We also performed transcriptome-wide analyses that identified 57 AF-associated genes, 42 of which overlap with GWAS loci. The identified loci implicate genes enriched within cardiac developmental, electrophysiological, contractile and structural pathways. These results extend our understanding of the biological pathways underlying AF and may facilitate the development of therapeutics for AF.
  •  
27.
  • Bousquet, J. Jean, et al. (author)
  • Next-generation ARIA care pathways for rhinitis and asthma : a model for multimorbid chronic diseases
  • 2019
  • In: Clinical and Translational Allergy. - : BMC. - 2045-7022. ; 9
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: In all societies, the burden and cost of allergic and chronic respiratory diseases are increasing rapidly. Most economies are struggling to deliver modern health care effectively. There is a need to support the transformation of the health care system into integrated care with organizational health literacy.Main body: As an example for chronic disease care, MASK (Mobile Airways Sentinel NetworK), a new project of the ARIA (Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma) initiative, and POLLAR (Impact of Air POLLution on Asthma and Rhinitis, EIT Health), in collaboration with professional and patient organizations in the field of allergy and airway diseases, are proposing real-life ICPs centred around the patient with rhinitis, and using mHealth to monitor environmental exposure. Three aspects of care pathways are being developed: (i) Patient participation, health literacy and self-care through technology-assisted "patient activation", (ii) Implementation of care pathways by pharmacists and (iii) Next-generation guidelines assessing the recommendations of GRADE guidelines in rhinitis and asthma using real-world evidence (RWE) obtained through mobile technology. The EU and global political agendas are of great importance in supporting the digital transformation of health and care, and MASK has been recognized by DG Sante as a Good Practice in the field of digitally-enabled, integrated, person-centred care.Conclusion: In 20 years, ARIA has considerably evolved from the first multimorbidity guideline in respiratory diseases to the digital transformation of health and care with a strong political involvement.
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28.
  • van der Valk, Ralf J P, et al. (author)
  • A novel common variant in DCST2 is associated with length in early life and height in adulthood.
  • 2015
  • In: Human molecular genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2083 .- 0964-6906. ; 24:4, s. 1155-68
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Common genetic variants have been identified for adult height, but not much is known about the genetics of skeletal growth in early life. To identify common genetic variants that influence fetal skeletal growth, we meta-analyzed 22 genome-wide association studies (Stage 1; N = 28 459). We identified seven independent top single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (P < 1 × 10(-6)) for birth length, of which three were novel and four were in or near loci known to be associated with adult height (LCORL, PTCH1, GPR126 and HMGA2). The three novel SNPs were followed-up in nine replication studies (Stage 2; N = 11 995), with rs905938 in DC-STAMP domain containing 2 (DCST2) genome-wide significantly associated with birth length in a joint analysis (Stages 1 + 2; β = 0.046, SE = 0.008, P = 2.46 × 10(-8), explained variance = 0.05%). Rs905938 was also associated with infant length (N = 28 228; P = 5.54 × 10(-4)) and adult height (N = 127 513; P = 1.45 × 10(-5)). DCST2 is a DC-STAMP-like protein family member and DC-STAMP is an osteoclast cell-fusion regulator. Polygenic scores based on 180 SNPs previously associated with human adult stature explained 0.13% of variance in birth length. The same SNPs explained 2.95% of the variance of infant length. Of the 180 known adult height loci, 11 were genome-wide significantly associated with infant length (SF3B4, LCORL, SPAG17, C6orf173, PTCH1, GDF5, ZNFX1, HHIP, ACAN, HLA locus and HMGA2). This study highlights that common variation in DCST2 influences variation in early growth and adult height.
  •  
29.
  • Bousquet, Jean, et al. (author)
  • ARIA digital anamorphosis : Digital transformation of health and care in airway diseases from research to practice
  • 2021
  • In: Allergy. European Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0105-4538 .- 1398-9995. ; 76:1, s. 168-190
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Digital anamorphosis is used to define a distorted image of health and care that may be viewed correctly using digital tools and strategies. MASK digital anamorphosis represents the process used by MASK to develop the digital transformation of health and care in rhinitis. It strengthens the ARIA change management strategy in the prevention and management of airway disease. The MASK strategy is based on validated digital tools. Using the MASK digital tool and the CARAT online enhanced clinical framework, solutions for practical steps of digital enhancement of care are proposed.
  •  
30.
  • Erzurumluoglu, A. Mesut, et al. (author)
  • Meta-analysis of up to 622,409 individuals identifies 40 novel smoking behaviour associated genetic loci
  • 2020
  • In: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 25:10, s. 2392-2409
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Smoking is a major heritable and modifiable risk factor for many diseases, including cancer, common respiratory disorders and cardiovascular diseases. Fourteen genetic loci have previously been associated with smoking behaviour-related traits. We tested up to 235,116 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) on the exome-array for association with smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, pack-years, and smoking cessation in a fixed effects meta-analysis of up to 61 studies (up to 346,813 participants). In a subset of 112,811 participants, a further one million SNVs were also genotyped and tested for association with the four smoking behaviour traits. SNV-trait associations with P < 5 × 10-8 in either analysis were taken forward for replication in up to 275,596 independent participants from UK Biobank. Lastly, a meta-analysis of the discovery and replication studies was performed. Sixteen SNVs were associated with at least one of the smoking behaviour traits (P < 5 × 10-8) in the discovery samples. Ten novel SNVs, including rs12616219 near TMEM182, were followed-up and five of them (rs462779 in REV3L, rs12780116 in CNNM2, rs1190736 in GPR101, rs11539157 in PJA1, and rs12616219 near TMEM182) replicated at a Bonferroni significance threshold (P < 4.5 × 10-3) with consistent direction of effect. A further 35 SNVs were associated with smoking behaviour traits in the discovery plus replication meta-analysis (up to 622,409 participants) including a rare SNV, rs150493199, in CCDC141 and two low-frequency SNVs in CEP350 and HDGFRP2. Functional follow-up implied that decreased expression of REV3L may lower the probability of smoking initiation. The novel loci will facilitate understanding the genetic aetiology of smoking behaviour and may lead to the identification of potential drug targets for smoking prevention and/or cessation.
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31.
  • Freitag, Daniel F., et al. (author)
  • Cardiometabolic effects of genetic upregulation of the interleukin 1 receptor antagonist: a Mendelian randomisation analysis
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595. ; 3:4, s. 243-253
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other effects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of inflammation. Methods We created a genetic score combining the effects of alleles of two common variants (rs6743376 and rs1542176) that are located upstream of IL1RN, the gene encoding the IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1Ra; an endogenous inhibitor of both IL-1 alpha and IL-1 beta); both alleles increase soluble IL-1Ra protein concentration. We compared effects on inflammation biomarkers of this genetic score with those of anakinra, the recombinant form of IL-1Ra, which has previously been studied in randomised trials of rheumatoid arthritis and other inflammatory disorders. In primary analyses, we investigated the score in relation to rheumatoid arthritis and four cardiometabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease, ischaemic stroke, and abdominal aortic aneurysm; 453 411 total participants). In exploratory analyses, we studied the relation of the score to many disease traits and to 24 other disorders of proposed relevance to IL-1 signalling (746 171 total participants). Findings For each IL1RN minor allele inherited, serum concentrations of IL-1Ra increased by 0.22 SD (95% CI 0.18-0.25; 12.5%; p=9.3 x 10(-33)), concentrations of interleukin 6 decreased by 0.02 SD (-0.04 to -0.01; -1,7%; p=3.5 x 10(-3)), and concentrations of C-reactive protein decreased by 0.03 SD (-0.04 to -0.02; -3.4%; p=7.7 x 10(-14)). We noted the effects of the genetic score on these inflammation biomarkers to be directionally concordant with those of anakinra. The allele count of the genetic score had roughly log-linear, dose-dependent associations with both IL-1Ra concentration and risk of coronary heart disease. For people who carried four IL-1Ra-raising alleles, the odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.15 (1.08-1.22; p=1.8 x 10(-6)) compared with people who carried no IL-1Ra-raising alleles; the per-allele odds ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.03 (1.02-1.04; p=3.9 x 10(-10)). Perallele odds ratios were 0.97 (0.95-0.99; p=9.9 x 10(-4)) for rheumatoid arthritis, 0.99 (0.97-1.01; p=0.47) for type 2 diabetes, 1.00 (0.98-1.02; p=0.92) for ischaemic stroke, and 1.08 (1.04-1.12; p=1.8 x 10(-5)) for abdominal aortic aneurysm. In exploratory analyses, we observed per-allele increases in concentrations of proatherogenic lipids, including LDL-cholesterol, but no clear evidence of association for blood pressure, glycaemic traits, or any of the 24 other disorders studied. Modelling suggested that the observed increase in LDL-cholesterol could account for about a third of the association observed between the genetic score and increased coronary risk. Interpretation Human genetic data suggest that long-term dual IL-1 alpha/beta inhibition could increase cardiovascular risk and, conversely, reduce the risk of development of rheumatoid arthritis. The cardiovascular risk might, in part, be mediated through an increase in proatherogenic lipid concentrations. Copyright (C) The Interleukin 1 Genetics Consortium. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC-BY-NC-ND.
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32.
  • Nguyen, Thanh N, et al. (author)
  • Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
  • 2023
  • In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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33.
  • Felix, Janine F, et al. (author)
  • Genome-wide association analysis identifies three new susceptibility loci for childhood body mass index.
  • 2016
  • In: Human molecular genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2083 .- 0964-6906. ; 25:2, s. 389-403
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • A large number of genetic loci are associated with adult body mass index. However, the genetics of childhood body mass index are largely unknown. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of childhood body mass index, using sex- and age-adjusted standard deviation scores. We included 35 668 children from 20 studies in the discovery phase and 11 873 children from 13 studies in the replication phase. In total, 15 loci reached genome-wide significance (P-value < 5 × 10(-8)) in the joint discovery and replication analysis, of which 12 are previously identified loci in or close to ADCY3, GNPDA2, TMEM18, SEC16B, FAIM2, FTO, TFAP2B, TNNI3K, MC4R, GPR61, LMX1B and OLFM4 associated with adult body mass index or childhood obesity. We identified three novel loci: rs13253111 near ELP3, rs8092503 near RAB27B and rs13387838 near ADAM23. Per additional risk allele, body mass index increased 0.04 Standard Deviation Score (SDS) [Standard Error (SE) 0.007], 0.05 SDS (SE 0.008) and 0.14 SDS (SE 0.025), for rs13253111, rs8092503 and rs13387838, respectively. A genetic risk score combining all 15 SNPs showed that each additional average risk allele was associated with a 0.073 SDS (SE 0.011, P-value = 3.12 × 10(-10)) increase in childhood body mass index in a population of 1955 children. This risk score explained 2% of the variance in childhood body mass index. This study highlights the shared genetic background between childhood and adult body mass index and adds three novel loci. These loci likely represent age-related differences in strength of the associations with body mass index.
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34.
  • Nichols, Emma, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:1, s. 88-106
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists.Methods: GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugarsweetened beverages).Findings: In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43.8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 7. 8-51.0), increased from 20.2 million (17. 4-23 5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1.7% (1.0-2.4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27.0 million, 95% UI 23 .3-31. 4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2.4 million (95% UI 2.1-2.8) deaths. Overall, 28.8 million (95% UI 24. 5-34. 0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6.4 million (95% UI 3 .4-10. 5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages.Interpretation: The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide.
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35.
  • Stitziel, Nathan O., et al. (author)
  • Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease
  • 2016
  • In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 374:12, s. 1134-1144
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with coronary artery disease and 120,770 controls who did not have coronary artery disease. Through DNA sequencing, we studied the effects of loss-of-function mutations in selected genes. RESULTS We confirmed previously observed significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes LPA and PCSK9. We also found significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes SVEP1 (p.D2702G; minor-allele frequency, 3.60%; odds ratio for disease, 1.14; P = 4.2x10(-10)) and ANGPTL4 (p.E40K; minor-allele frequency, 2.01%; odds ratio, 0.86; P = 4.0x10(-8)), which encodes angiopoietin-like 4. Through sequencing of ANGPTL4, we identified 9 carriers of loss-of-function mutations among 6924 patients with myocardial infarction, as compared with 19 carriers among 6834 controls (odds ratio, 0.47; P = 0.04); carriers of ANGPTL4 loss-of-function alleles had triglyceride levels that were 35% lower than the levels among persons who did not carry a loss-of-function allele (P = 0.003). ANGPTL4 inhibits lipoprotein lipase; we therefore searched for mutations in LPL and identified a loss-of-function variant that was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (p.D36N; minor-allele frequency, 1.9%; odds ratio, 1.13; P = 2.0x10(-4)) and a gain-of-function variant that was associated with protection from coronary artery disease (p.S447*; minor-allele frequency, 9.9%; odds ratio, 0.94; P = 2.5x10(-7)). CONCLUSIONS We found that carriers of loss-of-function mutations in ANGPTL4 had triglyceride levels that were lower than those among noncarriers; these mutations were also associated with protection from coronary artery disease.
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36.
  • Webb, Thomas R., et al. (author)
  • Systematic Evaluation of Pleiotropy Identifies 6 Further Loci Associated With Coronary Artery Disease
  • 2017
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 69:7, s. 823-836
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND Genome-wide association studies have so far identified 56 loci associated with risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Many CAD loci show pleiotropy; that is, they are also associated with other diseases or traits.OBJECTIVES This study sought to systematically test if genetic variants identified for non-CAD diseases/traits also associate with CAD and to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the extent of pleiotropy of all CAD loci.METHODS In discovery analyses involving 42,335 CAD cases and 78,240 control subjects we tested the association of 29,383 common (minor allele frequency >5%) single nucleotide polymorphisms available on the exome array, which included a substantial proportion of known or suspected single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with common diseases or traits as of 2011. Suggestive association signals were replicated in an additional 30,533 cases and 42,530 control subjects. To evaluate pleiotropy, we tested CAD loci for association with cardiovascular risk factors (lipid traits, blood pressure phenotypes, body mass index, diabetes, and smoking behavior), as well as with other diseases/traits through interrogation of currently available genome-wide association study catalogs.RESULTS We identified 6 new loci associated with CAD at genome-wide significance: on 2q37 (KCNJ13-GIGYF2), 6p21 (C2), 11p15 (MRVI1-CTR9), 12q13 (LRP1), 12q24 (SCARB1), and 16q13 (CETP). Risk allele frequencies ranged from 0.15 to 0.86, and odds ratio per copy of the risk allele ranged from 1.04 to 1.09. Of 62 new and known CAD loci, 24 (38.7%) showed statistical association with a traditional cardiovascular risk factor, with some showing multiple associations, and 29 (47%) showed associations at p < 1 x 10(-4) with a range of other diseases/traits.CONCLUSIONS We identified 6 loci associated with CAD at genome-wide significance. Several CAD loci show substantial pleiotropy, which may help us understand the mechanisms by which these loci affect CAD risk.
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37.
  • Ahmed, Anisuddin, et al. (author)
  • Measuring the effectiveness of an integrated intervention package to improve the level of infection prevention and control : a multi-centre study in Bangladesh
  • 2024
  • In: Journal of Hospital Infection. - : Elsevier. - 0195-6701 .- 1532-2939. ; 145, s. 22-33
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Infection prevention and control (IPC) is a critical component of delivering safe, effective and high -quality healthcare services, and eliminating avoidable healthcare -associated infections (HAIs) in health facilities, predominantly in populationdense settings such as Bangladesh.Aim: Our study aimed to assess the effect of an integrated intervention package in improving the IPC level of the health facilities in Bangladesh.Methods: We conducted a pre -post intervention study in six district hospitals (DHs) and 13 Upazila Health Complexes (UHCs) in the six districts of Bangladesh. Baseline and endline assessments were conducted between March and December 2021 using the adapted World Health Organization Infection Prevention and Control Assessment Framework (WHO-IPCAF) tool. The IPCAF score, ranging from 0-800, was calculated by adding the scores of eight components, and the IPC promotion and practice level was categorized as Inadequate (0 -200), Basic (201-400), Intermediate (401-600) and Advanced (601-800). The integrated intervention package including IPC committee formation, healthcare provider training, logistics provision, necessary guidelines distribution, triage/flu corners establishment, and infrastructure development was implemented in all facilities.Results: The average IPCAF score across all the facilities showed a significant increase from 16% (95% CI: 11.5-20.65%) to 54% (95% CI: 51.4-57.1%). Overall, the IPCAF score increased by 34 percentage points (P<0.001) in DHs and 40 percentage points (P<0.001) in UHCs. Following the intervention, 12 (three DHs, nine UHCs) of 19 facilities progressed from inadequate to intermediate, and another three DHs upgraded from basic to intermediate in terms of IPC level.Conclusion: The integrated intervention package improved IPCAF score in all facilities.
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38.
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39.
  • Vogelezang, Suzanne, et al. (author)
  • Novel loci for childhood body mass index and shared heritability with adult cardiometabolic traits.
  • 2020
  • In: PLoS genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7404. ; 16:10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The genetic background of childhood body mass index (BMI), and the extent to which the well-known associations of childhood BMI with adult diseases are explained by shared genetic factors, are largely unknown. We performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of BMI in 61,111 children aged between 2 and 10 years. Twenty-five independent loci reached genome-wide significance in the combined discovery and replication analyses. Two of these, located near NEDD4L and SLC45A3, have not previously been reported in relation to either childhood or adult BMI. Positive genetic correlations of childhood BMI with birth weight and adult BMI, waist-to-hip ratio, diastolic blood pressure and type 2 diabetes were detected (Rg ranging from 0.11 to 0.76, P-values <0.002). A negative genetic correlation of childhood BMI with age at menarche was observed. Our results suggest that the biological processes underlying childhood BMI largely, but not completely, overlap with those underlying adult BMI. The well-known observational associations of BMI in childhood with cardio-metabolic diseases in adulthood may reflect partial genetic overlap, but in light of previous evidence, it is also likely that they are explained through phenotypic continuity of BMI from childhood into adulthood.
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40.
  • Donahue, Manus J, et al. (author)
  • Consensus statement on current and emerging methods for the diagnosis and evaluation of cerebrovascular disease
  • 2018
  • In: Journal of cerebral blood flow and metabolism : official journal of the International Society of Cerebral Blood Flow and Metabolism. - 1559-7016. ; 38:9, s. 1391-1417
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Cerebrovascular disease (CVD) remains a leading cause of death and the leading cause of adult disability in most developed countries. This work summarizes state-of-the-art, and possible future, diagnostic and evaluation approaches in multiple stages of CVD, including (i) visualization of sub-clinical disease processes, (ii) acute stroke theranostics, and (iii) characterization of post-stroke recovery mechanisms. Underlying pathophysiology as it relates to large vessel steno-occlusive disease and the impact of this macrovascular disease on tissue-level viability, hemodynamics (cerebral blood flow, cerebral blood volume, and mean transit time), and metabolism (cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption and pH) are also discussed in the context of emerging neuroimaging protocols with sensitivity to these factors. The overall purpose is to highlight advancements in stroke care and diagnostics and to provide a general overview of emerging research topics that have potential for reducing morbidity in multiple areas of CVD.
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41.
  • Gain, Animesh K., et al. (author)
  • Overcoming challenges for implementing nature-based solutions in deltaic environments : insights from the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh
  • 2022
  • In: Environmental Research Letters. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1748-9326. ; 17:6
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) delta is one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world due to a combination of high population density and exposure to tropical cyclones, floods, salinity intrusion and other hazards. Due to the complexity of natural deltaic processes and human influence on these processes, structural solutions like embankments are inadequate on their own for effective hazard mitigation. This article examines nature-based solutions (NbSs) as a complementary or alternative approach to managing hazards in the GB delta. We investigate the potential of NbS as a complementary and sustainable method for mitigating the impacts of coastal disaster risks, mainly cyclones and flooding. Using the emerging framework of NbS principles, we evaluate three existing approaches: tidal river management, mangrove afforestation, and oyster reef cultivation, all of which are actively being used to help reduce the impacts of coastal hazards. We also identify major challenges (socioeconomic, biophysical, governance and policy) that need to be overcome to allow broader application of the existing approaches by incorporating the NbS principles. In addition to addressing GB delta-specific challenges, our findings provide more widely applicable insights into the challenges of implementing NbS in deltaic environments globally.
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42.
  • Mathioudakis, Alexander G., et al. (author)
  • Research Priorities in Pediatric Asthma : Results of a Global Survey of Multiple Stakeholder Groups by the Pediatric Asthma in Real Life (PeARL) Think Tank
  • 2020
  • In: Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-2198 .- 2213-2201. ; 8:6, s. 9-1960
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Pediatric asthma remains a public health challenge with enormous impact worldwide. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify and prioritize unmet clinical needs in pediatric asthma, which could be used to guide future research and policy activities. Methods: We first identified unmet needs through an open-question survey administered to international experts in pediatric asthma who were members of the Pediatric Asthma in Real Life Think Tank. Prioritization of topics was then achieved through a second, extensive survey with global reach, of multiple stakeholders (leading experts, researchers, clinicians, patients, policy makers, and the pharmaceutical industry). Differences across responder groups were compared. Results: A total of 57 unmet clinical need topics identified by international experts were prioritized by 412 participants from 5 continents and 60 countries. Prevention of disease progression and prediction of future risk, including persistence into adulthood, emerged as the most urgent research questions. Stratified care, based on biomarkers, clinical phenotypes, the children's age, and demographics were also highly rated. The identification of minimum diagnostic criteria in different age groups, cultural perceptions of asthma, and best treatment by age group were priorities for responders from low-middle-income countries. There was good agreement across different stakeholder groups in all domains with some notable exceptions that highlight the importance of involving the whole range of stakeholders in formulation of recommendations. Conclusions: Different stakeholders agree in the majority of research and strategic (eg, prevention, personalized approach) priorities for pediatric asthma. Stakeholder diversity is crucial for highlighting divergent issues that future guidelines should consider.
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43.
  • Munir, M. Adeel, et al. (author)
  • Blockchain Adoption for Sustainable Supply Chain Management : Economic, Environmental, and Social Perspectives
  • 2022
  • In: Frontiers in Energy Research. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-598X. ; 10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Due to the rapid increase in environmental degradation and depletion of natural resources, the focus of researchers is shifted from economic to socio-environmental problems. Blockchain is a disruptive technology that has the potential to restructure the entire supply chain for sustainable practices. Blockchain is a distributed ledger that provides a digital database for recording all the transactions of the supply chain. The main purpose of this research is to explore the literature relevant to blockchain for sustainable supply chain management. The focus of this review is on the sustainability of the blockchain-based supply chain concerning environmental conservation, social equality, and governance effectiveness. Using a systematic literature review, a total of 136 articles were evaluated and categorized according to the triple bottom-line aspects of sustainability. Challenges and barriers during blockchain adoption in different industrial sectors such as aviation, shipping, agriculture and food, manufacturing, automotive, pharmaceutical, and textile industries were critically examined. This study has not only explored the economic, environmental, and social impacts of blockchain but also highlighted the emerging trends in a circular supply chain with current developments of advanced technologies along with their critical success factors. Furthermore, research areas and gaps in the existing research are discussed, and future research directions are suggested. The findings of this study show that blockchain has the potential to revolutionize the entire supply chain from a sustainability perspective. Blockchain will not only improve the economic sustainability of the supply chain through effective traceability, enhanced visibility through information sharing, transparency in processes, and decentralization of the entire structure but also will help in achieving environmental and social sustainability through resource efficiency, accountability, smart contracts, trust development, and fraud prevention. The study will be helpful for managers and practitioners to understand the procedure of blockchain adoption and to increase the probability of its successful implementation to develop a sustainable supply chain network.
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44.
  • Kiddle, SJ, et al. (author)
  • Plasma protein biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease endophenotypes in asymptomatic older twins: early cognitive decline and regional brain volumes
  • 2015
  • In: Translational psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2158-3188. ; 5, s. e584-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • There is great interest in blood-based markers of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), especially in its pre-symptomatic stages. Therefore, we aimed to identify plasma proteins whose levels associate with potential markers of pre-symptomatic AD. We also aimed to characterise confounding by genetics and the effect of genetics on blood proteins in general. Panel-based proteomics was performed using SOMAscan on plasma samples from TwinsUK subjects who are asymptomatic for AD, measuring the level of 1129 proteins. Protein levels were compared with 10-year change in CANTAB-paired associates learning (PAL; n=195), and regional brain volumes (n=34). Replication of proteins associated with regional brain volumes was performed in 254 individuals from the AddNeuroMed cohort. Across all the proteins measured, genetic factors were found to explain ~26% of the variability in blood protein levels on average. The plasma level of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) MAPKAPK5 protein was found to positively associate with the 10-year change in CANTAB-PAL in both the individual and twin difference context. The plasma level of protein MAP2K4 was found to suggestively associate negatively (Q<0.1) with the volume of the left entorhinal cortex. Future studies will be needed to assess the specificity of MAPKAPK5 and MAP2K4 to eventual conversion to AD.
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45.
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46.
  • Ospel, Johanna M., et al. (author)
  • What is a Challenging Clot? : A DELPHI Consensus Statement from the CLOTS 7.0 Summit
  • 2023
  • In: Clinical Neuroradiology. - 1869-1439 .- 1869-1447. ; 33:4, s. 1007-1016
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Predicting a challenging clot when performing mechanical thrombectomy in acute stroke can be difficult. One reason for this difficulty is a lack of agreement on how to precisely define these clots. We explored the opinions of stroke thrombectomy and clot research experts regarding challenging clots, defined as difficult to recanalize clots by endovascular approaches, and clot/patient features that may be indicative of such clots. Methods: A modified DELPHI technique was used before and during the CLOTS 7.0 Summit, which included experts in thrombectomy and clot research from different specialties. The first round included open-ended questions and the second and final rounds each consisted of 30 closed-ended questions, 29 on various clinical and clot features, and 1 on number of passes before switching techniques. Consensus was defined as agreement ≥ 50%. Features with consensus and rated ≥ 3 out of 4 on the certainty scale were included in the definition of a challenging clot. Results: Three DELPHI rounds were performed. Panelists achieved consensus on 16/30 questions, of which 8 were rated 3 or 4 on the certainty scale, namely white-colored clots (mean certainty score 3.1), calcified clots under histology (3.7) and imaging (3.7), stiff clots (3.0), sticky/adherent clots (3.1), hard clots (3.1), difficult to pass clots (3.1) and clots that are resistant to pulling (3.0). Most panelists considered switching endovascular treatment (EVT) techniques after 2–3 unsuccessful attempts. Conclusion: This DELPHI consensus identified 8 distinct features of a challenging clot. The varying degree of certainty amongst the panelists emphasizes the need for more pragmatic studies to enable accurate a priori identification of such occlusions prior to EVT.
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47.
  • Wang, Gang, et al. (author)
  • Spirometric phenotypes from early childhood to young adulthood : a Chronic Airway Disease Early Stratification study
  • 2021
  • In: ERJ Open Research. - : ERS Publications. - 2312-0541. ; 7:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The prevalences of obstructive and restrictive spirometric phenotypes, and their relation to early-life risk factors from childhood to young adulthood remain poorly understood. The aim was to explore these phenotypes and associations with well-known respiratory risk factors across ages and populations in European cohorts.Methods: We studied 49334 participants from 14 population-based cohorts in different age groups (⩽10, >10–15, >15–20, >20–25 years, and overall, 5–25 years). The obstructive phenotype was defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) z-score less than the lower limit of normal (LLN), whereas the restrictive phenotype was defined as FEV1/FVC z-score ⩾LLN, and FVC z-score Results: The prevalence of obstructive and restrictive phenotypes varied from 3.2–10.9% and 1.8–7.7%, respectively, without clear age trends. A diagnosis of asthma (adjusted odds ratio (aOR=2.55, 95% CI 2.14–3.04), preterm birth (aOR=1.84, 1.27–2.66), maternal smoking during pregnancy (aOR=1.16, 95% CI 1.01–1.35) and family history of asthma (aOR=1.44, 95% CI 1.25–1.66) were associated with a higher prevalence of obstructive, but not restrictive, phenotype across ages (5–25 years). A higher current body mass index (BMI was more often observed in those with the obstructive phenotype but less in those with the restrictive phenotype (aOR=1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.06 and aOR=0.81, 95% CI 0.78–0.85, per kg·m−2 increase in BMI, respectively). Current smoking was associated with the obstructive phenotype in participants older than 10 years (aOR=1.24, 95% CI 1.05–1.46).Conclusion: Obstructive and restrictive phenotypes were found to be relatively prevalent during childhood, which supports the early origins concept. Several well-known respiratory risk factors were associated with the obstructive phenotype, whereas only low BMI was associated with the restrictive phenotype, suggesting different underlying pathobiology of these two phenotypes.
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48.
  • Abdaljaleel, Maram, et al. (author)
  • Postmortem lung and heart examination of COVID-19 patients in a case series from Jordan
  • 2023
  • In: Journal of Pathology and Translational Medicine. - : The Korean Society of Pathologists and The Korean Society for Cytopathology. - 2383-7837 .- 2383-7845. ; 57:2, s. 102-112
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a pandemic for more than 2 years. Autopsy examination is an invaluable tool to understand the pathogenesis of emerging infections and their consequent mortalities. The aim of the current study was to present the lung and heart pathological findings of COVID-19-positive autopsies performed in Jordan. Methods: The study involved medicolegal cases, where the cause of death was unclear and autopsy examination was mandated by law. We included the clinical and pathologic findings of routine gross and microscopic examination of cases that were positive for COVID-19 at time of death. Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was confirmed through molecular detection by real-time polymerase chain reaction, serologic testing for IgM and electron microscope examination of lung samples. Results: Seventeen autopsies were included, with male predominance (76.5%), Jordanians (70.6%), and 50 years as the mean age at time of death. Nine out of 16 cases (56.3%) had co-morbidities, with one case lacking such data. Histologic examination of lung tissue revealed diffuse alveolar damage in 13/17 cases (76.5%), and pulmonary microthrombi in 8/17 cases (47.1%). Microscopic cardiac findings were scarcely detected. Two patients died as a direct result of acute cardiac disease with limited pulmonary findings. Conclusions: The detection of SARS-CoV-2 in postmortem examination can be an incidental or contributory finding which highlights the value of autopsy examination to determine the exact cause of death in controversial cases.
  •  
49.
  • Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin, et al. (author)
  • Thermal and Hydraulic Performances of Carbon and Metallic Oxides-Based Nanomaterials
  • 2022
  • In: Nanomaterials. - : MDPI AG. - 2079-4991. ; 12:9
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • For companies, notably in the realms of energy and power supply, the essential requirement for highly efficient thermal transport solutions has become a serious concern. Current research highlighted the use of metallic oxides and carbon-based nanofluids as heat transfer fluids. This work examined two carbon forms (PEG@GNPs & PEG@TGr) and two types of metallic oxides (Al2O3 & SiO2) in a square heated pipe in the mass fraction of 0.1 wt.%. Laboratory conditions were as follows: 6401 ≤ Re ≤ 11,907 and wall heat flux = 11,205 W/m2. The effective thermal–physical and heat transfer properties were assessed for fully developed turbulent fluid flow at 20–60 °C. The thermal and hydraulic performances of nanofluids were rated in terms of pumping power, performance index (PI), and performance evaluation criteria (PEC). The heat transfer coefficients of the nanofluids improved the most: PEG@GNPs = 44.4%, PEG@TGr = 41.2%, Al2O3 = 22.5%, and SiO2 = 24%. Meanwhile, the highest augmentation in the Nu of the nanofluids was as follows: PEG@GNPs = 35%, PEG@TGr = 30.1%, Al2O3 = 20.6%, and SiO2 = 21.9%. The pressure loss and friction factor increased the highest, by 20.8–23.7% and 3.57–3.85%, respectively. In the end, the general performance of nanofluids has shown that they would be a good alternative to the traditional working fluids in heat transfer requests.
  •  
50.
  • Ajeel, Raheem K., et al. (author)
  • Comprehensive analysis of heat transfer and pressure drop in square multiple impingement jets employing innovative hybrid nanofluids
  • 2024
  • In: Results in Engineering (RINENG). - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2590-1230. ; 21
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This study presents a comprehensive analysis of heat transfer and pressure drop characteristics in square multiple impingement jets utilising a novel class of hybrid nanofluids. This study goes beyond the usual vertical impingement method by looking at the use of oblique impingement in a multiple impinging jet configuration with a hybrid nanofluid. Al2O3–Cu/water with different volume fractions () such as 0.1%, 0.33%, 0.75%, and 1.0% are employed as a working fluid. The purpose of the study is to clarify the impact of the jet angle (β), the jet Reynolds number (Re), extended jet height ), and different volume fraction () on the heat transfer behaviours of the curved target surface. The jet Reynolds number varies from 8000 to 24,000, and five different jet angles (β = 15 , 30°, 45°, 60°, 90 ) and three extended jet heights  = 0.2H, 0.4H, and 0.6H) are adopted. Outcomes disclosed that the highest values of Re and  greatly led to an increase in heat transfer rate and pressure drop of the system. It is uncovered that the heat transfer rate of binary hybrid nanofluids enhances with increasing volume fraction from for all jet angles and Re. Results also exposed that the angle of jet, which is 45°, gives a higher Nusselt number compared to other angles proposed in this study, and the maximum boost reaches 35%. Besides, despite the fact that reducing the height of the extended jet yields enhanced heat transfer rates in comparison to other methods, it concurrently results in an elevation in pressure drop. Finally, this research yielding insights that can be applied to improve the efficiency of heat transfer systems in practical applications.
  •  
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