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- Inglis, Gordon N., et al.
(författare)
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Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 16:5, s. 1953-1968
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help to contextualise future climate change and are required to estimate the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history. Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene (similar to 57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range (similar to 9 to 23 degrees C higher than pre-industrial) and prevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extreme greenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, we employ a multi-method experimen- tal framework to calculate GMST during the three DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (similar to 57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six different methodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 degrees C (22.3 to 28.3 degrees C), 31.6 degrees C (27.2 to 34.5 degrees C), and 27.0 degrees C (23.2 to 29.7 degrees C), respectively. GMST estimates from the EECO are similar to 10 to 16 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (9 to 14 degrees C higher than pre-industrial). Leveraging the large signal associated with these extreme warm climates, we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivity between the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that bulk equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66% confidence) during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 degrees C (2.4 to 6.8 degrees C), 3.6 degrees C (2.3 to 4.7 degrees C), and 3.1 degrees C (1.8 to 4.4 degrees C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generally similar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ffiC per doubling CO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (< 1 :5 per doubling CO2).
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2. |
- Karageorgis, Aristomenis P., et al.
(författare)
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Authigenic carbonate mineral formation in the Pagassitikos palaeolake during the latest Pleistocene, central Greece
- 2013
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Ingår i: Geo-Marine Letters. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0276-0460 .- 1432-1157. ; 33:1, s. 13-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Pagassitikos Gulf in Greece is a semi-enclosed bay with a maximum depth of 102 m. According to the present-day bathymetric configuration and the sea level during the latest Pleistocene, the gulf would have been isolated from the open sea, forming a palaeolake since 32 cal. ka b.p. Sediment core B-4 was recovered from the deepest sector of the gulf and revealed evidence of a totally different depositional environment in the lowest part of the core: this contained light grey-coloured sediments, contrasting strongly with overlying olive grey muds. Multi-proxy analyses showed the predominance of carbonate minerals (aragonite, dolomite and calcite) and gypsum in the lowest part of the core. Carbonate mineral deposition can be attributed to autochthonous precipitation that took place in a saline palaeolake with high evaporation rates during the last glacial-early deglacial period; the lowest core sample to be AMS C-14 dated provided an age of 19.53 cal. ka b.p. The palaeolake was presumably reconnected to the open sea at 13.2 cal. ka b.p. during the last sea-level rise, marking the commencement of marine sedimentation characterised by the predominance of terrigenous aluminosilicates and fairly constant depositional conditions lasting up to the present day.
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3. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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DeepMIP : model intercomparison of early Eocene climatic optimum (EECO) large-scale climate features and comparison with proxy data
- 2021
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 17:1, s. 203-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from an ensemble of eight climate models, each of which has carried out simulations of the early Eocene climate optimum (EECO, similar to 50 million years ago). These simulations have been carried out in the framework of the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP; http://www.deepmip.org , last access: 10 January 2021); thus, all models have been configured with the same paleogeographic and vegetation boundary conditions. The results indicate that these non-CO2 boundary conditions contribute between 3 and 5 degrees C to Eocene warmth. Compared with results from previous studies, the DeepMIP simulations generally show a reduced spread of the global mean surface temperature response across the ensemble for a given atmospheric CO2 concentration as well as an increased climate sensitivity on average. An energy balance analysis of the model ensemble indicates that global mean warming in the Eocene compared with the preindustrial period mostly arises from decreases in emissivity due to the elevated CO2 concentration (and associated water vapour and long-wave cloud feedbacks), whereas the reduction in the Eocene in terms of the meridional temperature gradient is primarily due to emissivity and albedo changes owing to the non-CO2 boundary conditions (i.e. the removal of the Antarctic ice sheet and changes in vegetation). Three of the models (the Community Earth System Model, CESM; the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GFDL, model; and the Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM) show results that are consistent with the proxies in terms of the global mean temperature, meridional SST gradient, and CO2, without prescribing changes to model parameters. In addition, many of the models agree well with the first-order spatial patterns in the SST proxies. However, at a more regional scale, the models lack skill. In particular, the modelled anomalies are substantially lower than those indicated by the proxies in the southwest Pacific; here, modelled continental surface air temperature anomalies are more consistent with surface air temperature proxies, implying a possible inconsistency between marine and terrestrial temperatures in either the proxies or models in this region. Our aim is that the documentation of the large-scale features and model-data comparison presented herein will pave the way to further studies that explore aspects of the model simulations in more detail, for example the ocean circulation, hydrological cycle, and modes of variability, and encourage sensitivity studies to aspects such as paleogeography, orbital configuration, and aerosols.
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4. |
- Lunt, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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The DeepMIP contribution to PMIP4 : experimental design for model simulations of the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM (version 1.0)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:2, s. 889-901
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high (>800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene (similar to 50 Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 x CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP - the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleo-climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.
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