| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
-
- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 4. |
- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(author)
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Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
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In: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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| 5. |
- Ansari, Daniel, et al.
(author)
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Hemorrhage after Major Pancreatic Resection: Incidence, Risk Factors, Management, and Outcome.
- 2017
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Surgery. - : SAGE Publications. - 1799-7267 .- 1457-4969. ; 106:1, s. 47-53
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hemorrhage is a rare but dreaded complication after pancreatic surgery. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, risk factors, management, and outcome of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage in a tertiary care center. A retrospective observational study was conducted on 500 consecutive patients undergoing major pancreatic resections at our institution. Postpancrea-tectomy hemorrhage was defined according to the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery criteria. RESULTS: A total of 68 patients (13.6%) developed postpancreatectomy hemorrhage. Thirty-four patients (6.8%) had a type A, 15 patients (3.0%) had a type B, and the remaining 19 patients (3.8%) had a type C bleed. Postoperative pancreatic fistula Grades B and C and bile leakage were significantly associated with severe postpancreatectomy hemorrhage on multivariable logistic regression. For patients with postpancreatectomy hemorrhage Grade C, the onset of bleeding was in median 13 days after the index operation, ranging from 1 to 85 days. Twelve patients (63.2%) had sentinel bleeds. Surgery lead to definitive hemostatic control in six of eight patients (75.0%). Angiography was able to localize the bleeding source in 8/10 (80.0%) cases. The success rate of angiographic hemostasis was 8/8. (100.0%). The mortality rate among patients with postpancreatectomy hemorrhage Grade C was 2/19 (10.5%), and both fatalities occurred late as a consequence of eroded vessels in association with pancreaticogastrostomy. CONCLUSION: Delayed hemorrhage is a serious complication after major pancreatic surgery.Sentinel bleed is an early warning sign. Postoperative pancreatic fistula and bile leakage are important risk factors for severe postpancreatectomy hemorrhage.
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| 6. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(author)
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Pancreatic cancer and thromboembolic disease, 150 years after Trousseau.
- 2015
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In: HepatoBiliary surgery and nutrition. - 2304-3881. ; 4:5, s. 325-335
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The connection between pancreatic cancer and venous thrombosis has been discussed for almost 150 years. The exact pathophysiological mechanisms are still partly understood, but it is known that pancreatic cancer induces a prothrombotic and hypercoagulable state and genetic events involved in neoplastic transformation (e.g., KRAS, c-MET, p53), procoagulant factors [e.g., tissue factor (TF), platelet factor 4 (PF4), plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1)], mucin production (e.g., through activation of P- and L-selectin) and pro-inflammatory factors [e.g., cytokines, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2)] may be implicated. Also pancreatitis, both acute and chronic, is associated with increased risk of venous thrombosis, but in this circumstance a direct inflammatory process may be more important. This article discusses the incidence, treatment and outcome of venous thromboembolism (VTE) complicating pancreatic disease, with special emphasis on new knowledge obtained during the last fifteen years.
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| 7. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(author)
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Portal Venous System Thrombosis After Pancreatic Resection
- 2013
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In: World Journal of Surgery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-2323 .- 0364-2313. ; 37:1, s. 179-184
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Portal venous system thrombosis (PVST) is a rare, potentially fatal complication after pancreatic resection. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, presenting symptoms, management, and treatment of PVST in a large cohort of patients. Prospectively collected data on patients undergoing pancreatic resection between 1997 and 2009 were reviewed retrospectively. Preoperative and postoperative imaging were analyzed for the presence or absence of venous thrombi. All patients received standard thromboprophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH). Of 516 pancreatic resections performed, 18 (3.5 %) were complicated by PVST. The most common clinical presentations were abdominal pain (n = 9) and ascites (n = 5) but never any alarm symptoms. Other symptoms were vague and nonspecific (e.g., weight loss, fatigue, fever). Total pancreatectomy was a risk factor compared to hemipancreatectomy (p < 0.01), whereas the underlying disease per se did not make any difference. The median interval between surgery and diagnosis of PVST was 105 days (range 1-1,440 days). PVST was at least a contributing factor in the postoperative deaths of two patients. LMWH therapy did not significantly affect survival. PVST remains a relatively infrequent complication after pancreatic resection. Because accurate diagnosis and timely intervention may reduce morbidity and mortality, the possibility of PVST should be considered in patients presenting with vague symptoms. Whether anticoagulant treatment is needed is still not clear; there were no obvious differences in outcome between treated and untreated patients.
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| 8. |
- Sartelli, Massimo, et al.
(author)
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Ten golden rules for optimal antibiotic use in hospital settings: the WARNING call to action
- 2023
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In: WORLD JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY SURGERY. - 1749-7922. ; 18:1
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Antibiotics are recognized widely for their benefits when used appropriately. However, they are often used inappropriately despite the importance of responsible use within good clinical practice. Effective antibiotic treatment is an essential component of universal healthcare, and it is a global responsibility to ensure appropriate use. Currently, pharmaceutical companies have little incentive to develop new antibiotics due to scientific, regulatory, and financial barriers, further emphasizing the importance of appropriate antibiotic use. To address this issue, the Global Alliance for Infections in Surgery established an international multidisciplinary task force of 295 experts from 115 countries with different backgrounds. The task force developed a position statement called WARNING (Worldwide Antimicrobial Resistance National/International Network Group) aimed at raising awareness of antimicrobial resistance and improving antibiotic prescribing practices worldwide. The statement outlined is 10 axioms, or "golden rules," for the appropriate use of antibiotics that all healthcare workers should consistently adhere in clinical practice.
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| 9. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(author)
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Analysis of the Influence of HLA-A Matching Relative to HLA-B and -DR Matching on Heart Transplant Outcomes
- 2015
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In: Transplantation direct. - 2373-8731. ; 1:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There are conflicting reports on the effect of donor-recipient HLA matching on outcomes in heart transplantation. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of HLA-A matching relative to HLA-B and -DR matching on long-term survival in heart transplantation.METHODS: A total of 25 583 patients transplanted between 1988 and 2011 were identified from the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation registry. Transplants were divided into 2 donor-recipient matching groups: HLA-A-compatible (no HLA-A mismatches) and HLA-A-incompatible (1-2 HLA-A mismatches). Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were graft failure-, cardiovascular-, infection-, or malignancy-related deaths.RESULTS: The risk of all-cause mortality 15 years after transplantation was higher for HLA-A-compatible (vs HLA-A-incompatible) grafts in patients who had HLA-B-, HLA-DR-, or HLA-B,DR-incompatible grafts (P = 0.027, P = 0.007, and P = 0.002, respectively) but not in HLA-B- and/or HLA-DR-compatible grafts. This was confirmed in multivariable Cox regression analysis where HLA-A compatibility (vs HLA-A incompatibility) was associated with higher mortality in transplants incompatible for HLA-DR or HLA-B and -DR (hazard ratio [HR], 1.59; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.11-2.28; P = 0.012 and HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.17-2.43; P = 0.005, respectively). In multivariable analysis, the largest compromise in survival for HLA-A compatibility (vs HLA-incompatibility) was for chronic rejection in HLA-B- and -DR-incompatible grafts (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.22-3.01; P = 0.005).CONCLUSIONS: Decreased long-term survival in heart transplantation was associated with HLA-A compatibility in HLA-B,DR-incompatible grafts.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(author)
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Human Leukocyte Antigen Matching in Heart Transplantation: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
- 2014
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In: Transplant International. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1432-2277 .- 0934-0874. ; 27:8, s. 793-804
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Allocation of donors with regard to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) is controversial in heart transplantation. This paper is a systematic review and meta-analysis of the available evidence. PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched systematically for studies that addressed the effects of HLA matching on outcome after heart transplantation. Fifty-seven studies met the eligibility criteria. 34 studies had graft rejection as outcome, with 26 of the studies reporting a significant reduction in graft rejection with increasing degree of HLA matching. Thirteen of 18 articles that reported on graft failure found that it decreased significantly with increasing HLA match. Two multicenter studies and 9 single-center studies provided sufficient data to provide summary estimates at 12 months. Pooled comparisons showed that graft survival increased with fewer HLA-DR mismatches [0-1 vs. 2 mismatches: risk ratio (RR)=1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01-1.19; P=0.04)]. Having fewer HLA-DR mismatches (0-1 vs. 2) reduced the incidence of acute rejection [(RR=0.81 (0.66-0.99; P=0.04)]. Despite the considerable heterogeneity between studies, the short observation time, and older data, HLA matching improves graft survival in heart transplantation. Prospective HLA-DR matching is clinically feasible and should be considered as a major selection criterion. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Ansari, Daniel, et al.
(author)
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Pancreatic cancer : Yesterday, today and tomorrow
- 2016
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In: Future Oncology. - : Future Medicine Ltd. - 1479-6694 .- 1744-8301. ; 12:16, s. 1929-1946
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pancreatic cancer is one of our most lethal malignancies. Despite substantial improvements in the survival rates for other major cancer forms, pancreatic cancer survival rates have remained relatively unchanged since the 1960s. Pancreatic cancer is usually detected at an advanced stage and most treatment regimens are ineffective, contributing to the poor overall prognosis. Herein, we review the current understanding of pancreatic cancer, focusing on central aspects of disease management from radiology, surgery and pathology to oncology.
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| 15. |
- Baby, Sultana Nasrin, et al.
(author)
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Developing a Spatial Tool for Assessing Coastal Community and Identifying Infrastructure at Risk
- 2021
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In: Engineering. - China : Scientific Research Publishing Inc. - 1947-3931 .- 1947-394X. ; 13:1, s. 45-55
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A recent trend of sea level shows constant rising. Sea level rise has caused asignificant risk to seaside areas. This study examines the potential effect ofclimate change and rising sea levels on coastal regions and evaluates the susceptibilityof coastal areas in Inverloch, Melbourne Australia. A model ofHypothetically Flooded Zones, based on LiDAR data was built, processed andmanipulated in ArcGIS. Through applying this model, the effect of rising sealevel on the infrastructures such as buildings, dwellings, roads, land use andthe population was assessed. Elevation data sets of varying resolution and accuracyhave been processed to show the improved quality of LiDAR datacontributes to a more precise delineation of flood-prone coastal lands. Afterthe susceptible areas to sea level rise were delineated, the worst-case scenariowas calculated (based on the increase in sea level projected for 2100) and itwould impacts about 0.86% of roads, 221 of different building infrastructures.This method can be used in other areas to protect the coasts due to rapidchanges caused by climate change.
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| 16. |
- Baby, Sultana Nasrin, et al.
(author)
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Finding Areas at Risk from Floods in a Downpour Using the Lidar-Based Elevation Model
- 2021
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In: Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture. - USA : David Publishing Company. - 1934-7359 .- 1934-7367. ; 15:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change can impact coastal areas in different ways, including flooding, storm surges, and beach erosion. Of these, flooding has a major impact on the operation of coastal drainage systems. This paper develops a new flood screening model using a LiDAR based digital elevation model (DEM) to improve the implementation of Victorian’s coastal flooding risk assessment and management. Hydrological elevation models are directed towards protection from cloudbursts and applied to rising sea level. The aim is to simulate water flow on the ground and in streams, and the resulting accumulation of water in depressions of the blue spot using DEM. Due to the presence of pipes, watercourses, bridges and channels it was required that the DEM data to be lowered. The reservoirs of rain will prevent seawater from flowing across the stream channel into land. The rain drain will be open during normal sea levels to allow rain water in the river to move and flow in to the sea. Traditionally, geographic information system (GIS) assists with spatial data management, but lacks modelling capability for complex hydrology problems and cannot be relied upon by decision-makers in this sector. Functionality improvements are therefore required to improve the processing or analytical capabilities of GIS in hydrology. This research shows how the spatial data can be primarily processed by GIS adopting the spatial analysis routines associated with hydrology. The objective of this paper is to outline the importance of GIS technology for coastal flood management. Following a definition of the coastal flood, and, short description of its peculiarities and the urgency of its management, this paper describes the use of GIS technology in coastal flood management, its advantages and the consideration for accuracy. This is followed by the information and LiDAR data required for coastal flood management and the application area in coastal flood management. This paper method is presented to conduct a first high-resolution DEM screening to detect the degree and capacities of the sinks in the coastal landscape. When their capacities are established, the rain volumes received during a rainstorm from their coastal catchments are saved as attributes to the pour points. The conclusion emphases the importance of a geographical information system in coastal flood management for efficient data handling and analysis of geographically related data. Local governments at risk of coastal flooding that use the flood screening model can use to determine appropriate land use controls to manage long-term flood risk to human settlements.
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Concepcion Gil-Rodriguez, Maria, et al.
(author)
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De Novo Heterozygous Mutations in SMC3 Cause a Range of Cornelia de Lange Syndrome-Overlapping Phenotypes
- 2015
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In: Human Mutation. - : Wiley: 12 months. - 1059-7794 .- 1098-1004. ; 36:4, s. 454-462
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cornelia de Lange syndrome (CdLS) is characterized by facial dysmorphism, growth failure, intellectual disability, limb malformations, and multiple organ involvement. Mutations in five genes, encoding subunits of the cohesin complex (SMC1A, SMC3, RAD21) and its regulators (NIPBL, HDAC8), account for at least 70% of patients with CdLS or CdLS-like phenotypes. To date, only the clinical features from a single CdLS patient with SMC3 mutation has been published. Here, we report the efforts of an international research and clinical collaboration to provide clinical comparison of 16 patients with CdLS-like features caused by mutations in SMC3. Modeling of the mutation effects on protein structure suggests a dominant-negative effect on the multimeric cohesin complex. When compared with typical CdLS, many SMC3-associated phenotypes are also characterized by postnatal microcephaly but with a less distinctive craniofacial appearance, a milder prenatal growth retardation that worsens in childhood, few congenital heart defects, and an absence of limb deficiencies. While most mutations are unique, two unrelated affected individuals shared the same mutation but presented with different phenotypes. This work confirms that de novo SMC3 mutations account for approximate to 1%-2% of CdLS-like phenotypes.
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| 19. |
- Godoy, Patricio, et al.
(author)
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Recent advances in 2D and 3D in vitro systems using primary hepatocytes, alternative hepatocyte sources and non-parenchymal liver cells and their use in investigating mechanisms of hepatotoxicity, cell signaling and ADME
- 2013
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In: Archives of Toxicology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0340-5761 .- 1432-0738. ; 87:8, s. 1315-1530
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This review encompasses the most important advances in liver functions and hepatotoxicity and analyzes which mechanisms can be studied in vitro. In a complex architecture of nested, zonated lobules, the liver consists of approximately 80 % hepatocytes and 20 % non-parenchymal cells, the latter being involved in a secondary phase that may dramatically aggravate the initial damage. Hepatotoxicity, as well as hepatic metabolism, is controlled by a set of nuclear receptors (including PXR, CAR, HNF-4 alpha, FXR, LXR, SHP, VDR and PPAR) and signaling pathways. When isolating liver cells, some pathways are activated, e.g., the RAS/MEK/ERK pathway, whereas others are silenced (e.g. HNF-4 alpha), resulting in up- and downregulation of hundreds of genes. An understanding of these changes is crucial for a correct interpretation of in vitro data. The possibilities and limitations of the most useful liver in vitro systems are summarized, including three-dimensional culture techniques, co-cultures with non-parenchymal cells, hepatospheres, precision cut liver slices and the isolated perfused liver. Also discussed is how closely hepatoma, stem cell and iPS cell-derived hepatocyte-like-cells resemble real hepatocytes. Finally, a summary is given of the state of the art of liver in vitro and mathematical modeling systems that are currently used in the pharmaceutical industry with an emphasis on drug metabolism, prediction of clearance, drug interaction, transporter studies and hepatotoxicity. One key message is that despite our enthusiasm for in vitro systems, we must never lose sight of the in vivo situation. Although hepatocytes have been isolated for decades, the hunt for relevant alternative systems has only just begun.
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| 20. |
- Hultcrantz, Monica, et al.
(author)
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The GRADE Working Group clarifies the construct of certainty of evidence
- 2017
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In: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. - : Pergamon Press. - 0895-4356 .- 1878-5921. ; 87, s. 4-13
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: To clarify the grading of recommendations assessment, development and evaluation (GRADE) definition of certainty of evidence and suggest possible approaches to rating certainty of the evidence for systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and guidelines. Study Design and Setting: This work was carried out by a project group within the GRADE Working Group, through brainstorming and iterative refinement of ideas, using input from workshops, presentations, and discussions at GRADE Working Group meetings to produce this document, which constitutes official GRADE guidance. Results: Certainty of evidence is best considered as the certainty that a true effect lies on one side of a specified threshold or within a chosen range. We define possible approaches for choosing threshold or range. For guidelines, what we call a fully contextualized approach requires simultaneously considering all critical outcomes and their relative value. Less-contextualized approaches, more appropriate for systematic reviews and health technology assessments, include using specified ranges of magnitude of effect, for example, ranges of what we might consider no effect, trivial, small, moderate, or large effects. Conclusion: It is desirable for systematic review authors, guideline panelists, and health technology assessors to specify the threshold or ranges they are using when rating the certainty in evidence. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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| 21. |
- Kölby, David, et al.
(author)
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Multifocal intraductal tubulopapillary neoplasm of the pancreas with total pancreatectomy: report of a case and review of literature.
- 2015
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In: International Journal of Clinical and Experimental Pathology. - 1936-2625. ; 8:8, s. 9672-9680
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Intraductal neoplasms of the pancreas are classified as intraductal tubulopapillary neoplasms (ITPNs) and intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMNs) in the current WHO classification. ITPN is a rare tumor and there are only a few cases of ITPN reported in the literature. We present the case of an otherwise healthy 42-year-old male, who presented with upper abdominal pain. He was subsequently diagnosed with multifocal ITPN and underwent total pancreatectomy. The pathological report showed invasive growth. The postoperative course was uneventful and the patient received 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy with gemcitabine-capecitabine. The patient is still alive 19 months after the procedure with no signs of recurrence. Literature review revealed only 30 individual cases of ITPN in the pancreas including our reported case. Mean age was 61 years (16 males/14 females; ratio 1.14:1). Mean tumor size was 3 cm. Immunohistochemical staining was positive for CK-7 in 100% of the patients, CK-19 in 95% and for MUC-1 in 88%. Trypsin was negative in all cases. β-catenin was negative in 94% and MUC-2 was negative in 96% of the cases. BRAF, KRAS, TP53 and PIK3CA mutations were infrequently seen. Invasive growth was present in 54% of the cases. Tumor size and Ki-67 index showed a statistically significant association with invasive growth. Survival rate could not be determined, due to short follow-up, and further research is needed to establish prognostic factors for disease recurrence and survival.
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| 22. |
- Loffill, Ed, et al.
(author)
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Aerated CoUFs - A pilot scale study into the impacts of changing variables on nitrification performance
- 2013
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In: Journal of Environmental Hydrology. - 1058-3912 .- 1996-7918. ; 21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes the findings of a long term study of the nitrification performance of apurpose built, large-scale, pilot plant consisting of two mirrored, aerated, continuouslyoperated upflow filters (ACoUFs) operating under realistic conditions. The effect oftemperature, liquid flow rate, aeration rate and media types on the performance of each ofthese filters is reported. After a start-up period of 2-3 weeks each plant performed consistentlyand the performance, expressed as a concentration change between influent and effluent, wasfound to depend directly on temperature and aeration but inversely on flow rate, with littleinteraction between the variables. The introduction of these aerated CoUF variants can havea considerable role to play in increasing effluent quality.
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| 23. |
- Moshontz, Hannah, et al.
(author)
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The Psychological Science Accelerator: Advancing Psychology Through a Distributed Collaborative Network
- 2018
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In: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : SAGE Publications. - 2515-2459 .- 2515-2467. ; 1:4, s. 501-515
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Concerns about the veracity of psychological research have been growing. Many findings in psychological science are based on studies with insufficient statistical power and nonrepresentative samples, or may otherwise be limited to specific, ungeneralizable settings or populations. Crowdsourced research, a type of large-scale collaboration in which one or more research projects are conducted across multiple lab sites, offers a pragmatic solution to these and other current methodological challenges. The Psychological Science Accelerator (PSA) is a distributed network of laboratories designed to enable and support crowdsourced research projects. These projects can focus on novel research questions or replicate prior research in large, diverse samples. The PSA’s mission is to accelerate the accumulation of reliable and generalizable evidence in psychological science. Here, we describe the background, structure, principles, procedures, benefits, and challenges of the PSA. In contrast to other crowdsourced research networks, the PSA is ongoing (as opposed to time limited), efficient (in that structures and principles are reused for different projects), decentralized, diverse (in both subjects and researchers), and inclusive (of proposals, contributions, and other relevant input from anyone inside or outside the network). The PSA and other approaches to crowdsourced psychological science will advance understanding of mental processes and behaviors by enabling rigorous research and systematic examination of its generalizability.
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| 24. |
- Muus, Christoph, et al.
(author)
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Single-cell meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 entry genes across tissues and demographics
- 2021
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In: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 27:3, s. 546-559
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and accessory proteases (TMPRSS2 and CTSL) are needed for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cellular entry, and their expression may shed light on viral tropism and impact across the body. We assessed the cell-type-specific expression of ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL across 107 single-cell RNA-sequencing studies from different tissues. ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL are coexpressed in specific subsets of respiratory epithelial cells in the nasal passages, airways and alveoli, and in cells from other organs associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission or pathology. We performed a meta-analysis of 31 lung single-cell RNA-sequencing studies with 1,320,896 cells from 377 nasal, airway and lung parenchyma samples from 228 individuals. This revealed cell-type-specific associations of age, sex and smoking with expression levels of ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL. Expression of entry factors increased with age and in males, including in airway secretory cells and alveolar type 2 cells. Expression programs shared by ACE2(+)TMPRSS2(+) cells in nasal, lung and gut tissues included genes that may mediate viral entry, key immune functions and epithelial-macrophage cross-talk, such as genes involved in the interleukin-6, interleukin-1, tumor necrosis factor and complement pathways. Cell-type-specific expression patterns may contribute to the pathogenesis of COVID-19, and our work highlights putative molecular pathways for therapeutic intervention. An integrated analysis of over 100 single-cell and single-nucleus transcriptomics studies illustrates severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral entry gene coexpression patterns across different human tissues, and shows association of age, smoking status and sex with viral entry gene expression in respiratory cell populations.
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| 25. |
- Nilsson, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Human Leukocyte Antigen-Based Risk Stratification in Heart Transplant Recipients-Implications for Targeted Surveillance
- 2019
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 8:15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) matching isn't routinely performed in heart transplantation. Novel allograft perfusion methods may make HLA matching feasible. The purpose of this study is to reexamine whether HLA mismatch may be used in risk stratification to improve outcomes in heart transplantation. Methods and Results We analyzed 34 681 recipients undergoing heart transplantation between 1987 and 2013. We used HLAMatchmaker to quantify HLA eplet mismatches and Cox regression for analysis of time to graft loss. Recipients with 4 mismatched HLA-DR/DQ alleles and >40 eplets reached an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for graft loss of 1.17 (95% CI 1.07-1.28) and 1.11 (95% CI 1.03-1.21), respectively. We found significant interaction between recipient age and numbers of HLA-DR/DQ allele and eplet mismatches resulting in an adjusted HR of 1.78 (95% 1.13-2.80) and 1.82 (95% CI, 1.23-2.70), respectively. HR for both interaction terms was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.98-1.00). Risk of graft loss was more pronounced after 1 year, where recipient <40 years with 4 mismatched HLA-DR/DQ alleles and >40 eplets had an adjusted HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.12-2.03) and 1.32 (95% CI 1.02-1.70), respectively. Pre-sensitized recipients with panel reactive antibodies >10% had an adjusted HR=1.27 (95% CI 1.16-1.40) for graft loss within 1 year but not thereafter. HLA eplet mismatch was independent of panel reactive antibodies on reduction of graft loss within and after 1 year, P (interaction)=0.888 and 0.389. Conclusions HLA mismatch may be used in risk stratification for intensified post-transplant surveillance and therapy.
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| 26. |
- Nozohoor, Shahab, et al.
(author)
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Induction immunosuppression strategies and long-term outcomes after heart transplantation
- 2020
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In: Clinical Transplantation. - : Wiley. - 0902-0063 .- 1399-0012. ; 34:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although the use of induction therapy has reduced the risk of acute rejection after heart transplantation, its use may be associated with other adverse outcomes. We aimed to examine the effect of no induction (NoInd), induction with basiliximab (BAS), or induction with antithymocyte globulin (ATG) on outcome after heart transplantation. We analyzed data from the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) registry for adult heart transplants performed between 2000 and 2013. The primary outcome was cumulative all-cause mortality, and the secondary outcome was cause-specific death. We identified 27 369 transplants whose recipients received NoInd (n = 15 688), ATG (n = 6830), or BAS (n = 4851). Over a median follow-up of 1497 days, overall 30-day mortality was 5% and 1-year mortality was 11%. Survival after transplant was similar in patients treated with NoInd compared with ATG. The survival was improved using NoInd compared with BAS (log-rank P =.040), adjustment HR = 1.11 (95% CI, 1.04-1.19). Compared to NoInd, BAS was associated with higher risk of graft failure-related deaths, HR = 1.27 (95% CI, 1.02-1.58), and ATG was associated with higher risk of malignancy-related deaths, HR = 1.18 (95% CI, 1.01-1.39). Survival of patients who received NoInd was similar to ATG and better compared with BAS. Further, the use of ATG may be associated with increased malignancy-related mortality, compared with NoInd.
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| 27. |
- Timms, Kirsten M, et al.
(author)
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Molecular and phenotypic variation in patients with severe Hunter syndrome
- 1997
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In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 6:3, s. 479-486
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Severe Hunter syndrome is a fatal X-linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by iduronate-2-sulphatase (IDS) deficiency. Patients with complete deletion of the IDS locus often have atypical phenotypes including ptosis, obstructive sleep apnoea, and the occurrence of seizures. We have used genomic DNA sequencing to identify several new genes in the IDS region. DNA deletion patients with atypical symptoms have been analysed to determine whether these atypical symptoms could be due to involvement of these other loci. The occurrence of seizures in two individuals correlated with a deletion extending proximal of IDS, up to and including part of the FMR2 locus. Other (non-seizure) symptoms were associated with distal deletions. In addition, a group of patients with no variant symptoms, and a characteristic rearrangement involving a recombination between the IDS gene and an adjacent IDS pseudogene (IDS psi), showed normal expression of loci distal to IDS. Together, these results identify FMR2 as a candidate gene for seizures, when mutated along with IDS.
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| 28. |
- Veeramah, Krishna R., et al.
(author)
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Little genetic differentiation as assessed by uniparental markers in the presence of substantial language variation in peoples of the Cross River region of Nigeria
- 2010
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In: BMC Evolutionary Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2148. ; 10, s. 92-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The Cross River region in Nigeria is an extremely diverse area linguistically with over 60 distinct languages still spoken today. It is also a region of great historical importance, being a) adjacent to the likely homeland from which Bantu-speaking people migrated across most of sub-Saharan Africa 3000-5000 years ago and b) the location of Calabar, one of the largest centres during the Atlantic slave trade. Over 1000 DNA samples from 24 clans representing speakers of the six most prominent languages in the region were collected and typed for Y-chromosome (SNPs and microsatellites) and mtDNA markers (Hypervariable Segment 1) in order to examine whether there has been substantial gene flow between groups speaking different languages in the region. In addition the Cross River region was analysed in the context of a larger geographical scale by comparison to bordering Igbo speaking groups as well as neighbouring Cameroon populations and more distant Ghanaian communities. Results: The Cross River region was shown to be extremely homogenous for both Y-chromosome and mtDNA markers with language spoken having no noticeable effect on the genetic structure of the region, consistent with estimates of inter-language gene flow of 10% per generation based on sociological data. However the groups in the region could clearly be differentiated from others in Cameroon and Ghana (and to a lesser extent Igbo populations). Significant correlations between genetic distance and both geographic and linguistic distance were observed at this larger scale. Conclusions: Previous studies have found significant correlations between genetic variation and language in Africa over large geographic distances, often across language families. However the broad sampling strategies of these datasets have limited their utility for understanding the relationship within language families. This is the first study to show that at very fine geographic/linguistic scales language differences can be maintained in the presence of substantial gene flow over an extended period of time and demonstrates the value of dense sampling strategies and having DNA of known and detailed provenance, a practice that is generally rare when investigating sub-Saharan African demographic processes using genetic data.
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| 29. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(author)
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- 2023
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