| 1. |
- Lu, Yingchang, et al.
(författare)
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New loci for body fat percentage reveal link between adiposity and cardiometabolic disease risk
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of adiposity and its links to cardiometabolic disease risk, we conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis of body fat percentage (BF%) in up to 100,716 individuals. Twelve loci reached genome-wide significance (P<5 × 10(-8)), of which eight were previously associated with increased overall adiposity (BMI, BF%) and four (in or near COBLL1/GRB14, IGF2BP1, PLA2G6, CRTC1) were novel associations with BF%. Seven loci showed a larger effect on BF% than on BMI, suggestive of a primary association with adiposity, while five loci showed larger effects on BMI than on BF%, suggesting association with both fat and lean mass. In particular, the loci more strongly associated with BF% showed distinct cross-phenotype association signatures with a range of cardiometabolic traits revealing new insights in the link between adiposity and disease risk.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Ben-Avraham, Dan, et al.
(författare)
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The complex genetics of gait speed : Genome-wide meta-analysis approach
- 2017
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Ingår i: Aging. - : Impact Journals, LLC. - 1945-4589. ; 9:1, s. 209-246
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emerging evidence suggests that the basis for variation in late-life mobility is attributable, in part, to genetic factors, which may become increasingly important with age. Our objective was to systematically assess the contribution of genetic variation to gait speed in older individuals. We conducted a meta-analysis of gait speed GWASs in 31,478 older adults from 17 cohorts of the CHARGE consortium, and validated our results in 2,588 older adults from 4 independent studies. We followed our initial discoveries with network and eQTL analysis of candidate signals in tissues. The meta-analysis resulted in a list of 536 suggestive genome wide significant SNPs in or near 69 genes. Further interrogation with Pathway Analysis placed gait speed as a polygenic complex trait in five major networks. Subsequent eQTL analysis revealed several SNPs significantly associated with the expression of PRSS16, WDSUB1 and PTPRT, which in addition to the meta-analysis and pathway suggested that genetic effects on gait speed may occur through synaptic function and neuronal development pathways. No genome-wide significant signals for gait speed were identified from this moderately large sample of older adults, suggesting that more refined physical function phenotypes will be needed to identify the genetic basis of gait speed in aging.
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| 4. |
- Benatar, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Safety and efficacy of arimoclomol in patients with early amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ORARIALS-01) : a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre, phase 3 trial
- 2024
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 23:7, s. 687-699
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder leading to muscle weakness and respiratory failure. Arimoclomol, a heat-shock protein-70 (HSP70) co-inducer, is neuroprotective in animal models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, with multiple mechanisms of action, including clearance of protein aggregates, a pathological hallmark of sporadic and familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of arimoclomol in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.Methods: ORARIALS-01 was a multinational, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial done at 29 centres in 12 countries in Europe and North America. Patients were eligible if they were aged 18 years or older and met El Escorial criteria for clinically possible, probable, probable laboratory-supported, definite, or familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; had an ALS Functional Rating Scale-Revised score of 35 or more; and had slow vital capacity at 70% or more of the value predicted on the basis of the participant's age, height, and sex. Patients were randomly assigned (2:1) in blocks of 6, stratified by use of a stable dose of riluzole or no riluzole use, to receive oral arimoclomol citrate 1200 mg/day (400 mg three times per day) or placebo. The Randomisation sequence was computer generated centrally. Investigators, study personnel, and study participants were masked to treatment allocation. The primary outcome was the Combined Assessment of Function and Survival (CAFS) rank score over 76 weeks of treatment. The primary outcome and safety were analysed in the modified intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03491462, and is completed.Findings: Between July 31, 2018, and July 17, 2019, 287 patients were screened, 245 of whom were enrolled in the trial and randomly assigned. The modified intention-to-treat population comprised 239 patients (160 in the arimoclomol group and 79 in the placebo group): 151 (63%) were male and 88 (37%) were female; mean age was 57·6 years (SD 10·9). CAFS score over 76 weeks did not differ between groups (mean 0·51 [SD 0·29] in the arimoclomol group vs 0·49 [0·28] in the placebo group; p=0·62). Cliff's delta comparing the two groups was 0·039 (95% CI –0·116 to 0·194). Proportions of participants who died were similar between the treatment groups: 29 (18%) of 160 patients in the arimoclomol group and 18 (23%) of 79 patients in the placebo group. Most deaths were due to disease progression. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal. Adverse events were more often deemed treatment-related in the arimoclomol group (104 [65%]) than in the placebo group (41 [52%]) and more often led to treatment discontinuation in the arimoclomol group (26 [16%]) than in the placebo group (four [5%]).Interpretation: Arimoclomol did not improve efficacy outcomes compared with placebo. Although available biomarker data are insufficient to preclude future strategies that target the HSP response, safety data suggest that a higher dose of arimoclomol would not have been tolerated.Funding: Orphazyme.
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| 5. |
- Bennett, Joanne M., et al.
(författare)
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Land use and pollinator dependency drives global patterns of pollen limitation in the Anthropocene
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land use change, by disrupting the co-evolved interactions between plants and their pollinators, could be causing plant reproduction to be limited by pollen supply. Using a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis on over 2200 experimental studies and more than 1200 wild plants, we ask if land use intensification is causing plant reproduction to be pollen limited at global scales. Here we report that plants reliant on pollinators in urban settings are more pollen limited than similarly pollinator-reliant plants in other landscapes. Plants functionally specialized on bee pollinators are more pollen limited in natural than managed vegetation, but the reverse is true for plants pollinated exclusively by a non-bee functional group or those pollinated by multiple functional groups. Plants ecologically specialized on a single pollinator taxon were extremely pollen limited across land use types. These results suggest that while urbanization intensifies pollen limitation, ecologically and functionally specialized plants are at risk of pollen limitation across land use categories. An insufficient amount of pollen transfer by pollinators (pollen limitation) could reduce plant reproduction in human-impacted landscapes. Here the authors conduct a global meta-analysis and find that pollen limitation is high in urban environments and depends of plant traits such as pollinator dependency.
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| 6. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 7. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 8. |
- Burns, Jean H., et al.
(författare)
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Plant traits moderate pollen limitation of introduced and native plants : a phylogenetic meta-analysis of global scale
- 2019
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Ingår i: New Phytologist. - : WILEY. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137. ; 223:4, s. 2063-2075
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of pollination in the success of invasive plants needs to be understood because invasives have substantial effects on species interactions and ecosystem functions. Previous research has shown both that reproduction of invasive plants is often pollen limited and that invasive plants can have high seed production, motivating the questions: How do invasive populations maintain reproductive success in spite of pollen limitation? What species traits moderate pollen limitation for invaders? We conducted a phylogenetic meta-analysis with 68 invasive, 50 introduced noninvasive and 1931 native plant populations, across 1249 species. We found that invasive populations with generalist pollination or pollinator dependence were less pollen limited than natives, but invasives and introduced noninvasives did not differ. Invasive species produced 3x fewer ovules/flower and >250x more flowers per plant, compared with their native relatives. While these traits were negatively correlated, consistent with a tradeoff, this did not differ with invasion status. Invasive plants that produce many flowers and have floral generalisation are able to compensate for or avoid pollen limitation, potentially helping to explain the invaders' reproductive successes.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Haljas, Kadri, et al.
(författare)
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Bivariate genome-wide association study of depressive symptoms with type 2 diabetes and quantitative glycemic traits
- 2018
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Ingår i: Psychosomatic Medicine. - 0033-3174. ; 80:3, s. 242-251
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Shared genetic background may explain phenotypic associations between depression and Type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to study, on a genome-wide level, if genetic correlation and pleiotropic loci exist between depressive symptoms and T2D or glycemic traits. Methods: We estimated single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based heritability and analyzed genetic correlation between depressive symptoms and T2D and glycemic traits with the linkage disequilibrium score regression by combining summary statistics of previously conducted meta-analyses for depressive symptoms by CHARGE consortium (N = 51,258), T2D by DIAGRAM consortium (N = 34,840 patients and 114,981 controls), fasting glucose, fasting insulin, and homeostatic model assessment of β-cell function and insulin resistance by MAGIC consortium (N = 58,074). Finally, we investigated pleiotropic loci using a bivariate genome-wide association study approach with summary statistics from genome-wide association study meta-analyses and reported loci with genome-wide significant bivariate association p value (p < 5 10−8). Biological annotation and function of significant pleiotropic SNPs were assessed in several databases. Results: The SNP-based heritability ranged from 0.04 to 0.10 in each individual trait. In the linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses, depressive symptoms showed no significant genetic correlation with T2D or glycemic traits (p > 0.37). However, we identified pleiotropic genetic variations for depressive symptoms and T2D (in the IGF2BP2, CDKAL1, CDKN2B-AS, and PLEKHA1 genes), and fasting glucose (in the MADD, CDKN2B-AS, PEX16, and MTNR1B genes). Conclusions: We found no significant overall genetic correlations between depressive symptoms, T2D, or glycemic traits suggesting major differences in underlying biology of these traits. However, several potential pleiotropic loci were identified between depressive symptoms, T2D, and fasting glucose, suggesting that previously established phenotypic associations may be partly explained by genetic variation in these specific loci.
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| 11. |
- Hibar, Derrek P., et al.
(författare)
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Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (r(g) = -0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness.
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| 12. |
- Locke, Adam E, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 518:7538, s. 197-401
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.
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| 13. |
- Margolskee, Alison, et al.
(författare)
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IMI - oral biopharmaceutics tools project - evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 1 : Characterisation of the OrBiTo database of compounds
- 2017
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Ingår i: European Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 0928-0987 .- 1879-0720. ; 96, s. 598-609
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predicting oral bioavailability (F-oral) is of importance for estimating systemic exposure of orally administered drugs. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling and simulation have been applied extensively in biopharmaceutics recently. The Oral Biopharmaceutical Tools (OrBiTo) project (Innovative Medicines Initiative) aims to develop and improve upon biopharmaceutical tools, including PBPK absorption models. A large-scale evaluation of PBPK models may be considered the first step. Here we characterise the OrBiTo active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) database for use in a large-scale simulation study. The OrBiTo database comprised 83 APIs and 1475 study arms. The database displayed a median logP of 3.60 (2.40-4.58), human blood-to-plasma ratio of 0.62 (0.57-0.71), and fraction unbound in plasma of 0.05 (0.01-0.17). The database mainly consisted of basic compounds (48.19%) and Biopharmaceutics Classification System class II compounds (55.81%). Median human intravenous clearance was 16.9 L/h (interquartile range: 11.6-43.6 L/h; n = 23), volume of distribution was 80.8 L (54.5-239 L; n = 23). The majority of oral formulations were immediate release (IR: 87.6%). Human Foral displayed a median of 0.415 (0.203-0.724; n = 22) for IR formulations. The OrBiTo database was found to be largely representative of previously published datasets. 43 of the APIs were found to satisfy the minimum inclusion criteria for the simulation exercise, and many of these have significant gaps of other key parameters, which could potentially impact the interpretability of the simulation outcome. However, the OrBiTo simulation exercise represents a unique opportunity to perform a large-scale evaluation of the PBPK approach to predicting oral biopharmaceutics.
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| 14. |
- Phillips, Helen R. P., et al.
(författare)
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Global distribution of earthworm diversity
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 366:6464, s. 480-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil organisms, including earthworms, are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about their diversity, their distribution, and the threats affecting them. We compiled a global dataset of sampled earthworm communities from 6928 sites in 57 countries as a basis for predicting patterns in earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass. We found that local species richness and abundance typically peaked at higher latitudes, displaying patterns opposite to those observed in aboveground organisms. However, high species dissimilarity across tropical locations may cause diversity across the entirety of the tropics to be higher than elsewhere. Climate variables were found to be more important in shaping earthworm communities than soil properties or habitat cover. These findings suggest that climate change may have serious implications for earthworm communities and for the functions they provide.
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| 15. |
- Rodger, James G., et al.
(författare)
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Widespread vulnerability of flowering plant seed production to pollinator declines
- 2021
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite evidence of pollinator declines from many regions across the globe, the threat this poses to plant populations is not clear because plants can often produce seeds without animal pollinators. Here, we quantify pollinator contribution to seed production by comparing fertility in the presence versus the absence of pollinators for a global dataset of 1174 plant species. We estimate that, without pollinators, a third of flowering plant species would produce no seeds and half would suffer an 80% or more reduction in fertility. Pollinator contribution to plant reproduction is higher in plants with tree growth form, multiple reproductive episodes, more specialized pollination systems, and tropical distributions, making these groups especially vulnerable to reduced service from pollinators. These results suggest that, without mitigating efforts, pollinator declines have the potential to reduce reproduction for most plant species, increasing the risk of population declines.
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| 16. |
- Shungin, Dmitry, et al.
(författare)
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New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 518:7538, s. 187-378
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms.
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| 17. |
- Sovio, Ulla, et al.
(författare)
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Association between Common Variation at the FTO Locus and Changes in Body Mass Index from Infancy to Late Childhood : The Complex Nature of Genetic Association through Growth and Development
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLoS Genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7390 .- 1553-7404. ; 7:2, s. e1001307-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An age-dependent association between variation at the FTO locus and BMI in children has been suggested. We meta-analyzed associations between the FTO locus (rs9939609) and BMI in samples, aged from early infancy to 13 years, from 8 cohorts of European ancestry. We found a positive association between additional minor (A) alleles and BMI from 5.5 years onwards, but an inverse association below age 2.5 years. Modelling median BMI curves for each genotype using the LMS method, we found that carriers of minor alleles showed lower BMI in infancy, earlier adiposity rebound (AR), and higher BMI later in childhood. Differences by allele were consistent with two independent processes: earlier AR equivalent to accelerating developmental age by 2.37% (95% CI 1.87, 2.87, p = 10−20) per A allele and a positive age by genotype interaction such that BMI increased faster with age (p = 10−23). We also fitted a linear mixed effects model to relate genotype to the BMI curve inflection points adiposity peak (AP) in infancy and AR. Carriage of two minor alleles at rs9939609 was associated with lower BMI at AP (−0.40% (95% CI: −0.74, −0.06), p = 0.02), higher BMI at AR (0.93% (95% CI: 0.22, 1.64), p = 0.01), and earlier AR (−4.72% (−5.81, −3.63), p = 10−17), supporting cross-sectional results. Overall, we confirm the expected association between variation at rs9939609 and BMI in childhood, but only after an inverse association between the same variant and BMI in infancy. Patterns are consistent with a shift on the developmental scale, which is reflected in association with the timing of AR rather than just a global increase in BMI. Results provide important information about longitudinal gene effects and about the role of FTO in adiposity. The associated shifts in developmental timing have clinical importance with respect to known relationships between AR and both later-life BMI and metabolic disease risk.
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| 18. |
- Thompson, Paul M., et al.
(författare)
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The ENIGMA Consortium : large-scale collaborative analyses of neuroimaging and genetic data
- 2014
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Ingår i: BRAIN IMAGING BEHAV. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1931-7557 .- 1931-7565. ; 8:2, s. 153-182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium is a collaborative network of researchers working together on a range of large-scale studies that integrate data from 70 institutions worldwide. Organized into Working Groups that tackle questions in neuroscience, genetics, and medicine, ENIGMA studies have analyzed neuroimaging data from over 12,826 subjects. In addition, data from 12,171 individuals were provided by the CHARGE consortium for replication of findings, in a total of 24,997 subjects. By meta-analyzing results from many sites, ENIGMA has detected factors that affect the brain that no individual site could detect on its own, and that require larger numbers of subjects than any individual neuroimaging study has currently collected. ENIGMA's first project was a genome-wide association study identifying common variants in the genome associated with hippocampal volume or intracranial volume. Continuing work is exploring genetic associations with subcortical volumes (ENIGMA2) and white matter microstructure (ENIGMA-DTI). Working groups also focus on understanding how schizophrenia, bipolar illness, major depression and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) affect the brain. We review the current progress of the ENIGMA Consortium, along with challenges and unexpected discoveries made on the way.
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| 19. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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| 20. |
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