| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Abolfathi, Bela, et al.
(author)
-
The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 253:31
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg2, as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg2. We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.
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| 4. |
- Alves, Catarina S., et al.
(author)
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Considerations for Optimizing the Photometric Classification of Supernovae from the Rubin Observatory
- 2022
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 258:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Vera C. Rubin Observatory will increase the number of observed supernovae (SNe) by an order of magnitude; however, it is impossible to spectroscopically confirm the class for all SNe discovered. Thus, photometric classification is crucial, but its accuracy depends on the not-yet-finalized observing strategy of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We quantitatively analyze the impact of the LSST observing strategy on SNe classification using simulated multiband light curves from the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC). First, we augment the simulated training set to be representative of the photometric redshift distribution per SNe class, the cadence of observations, and the flux uncertainty distribution of the test set. Then we build a classifier using the photometric transient classification library snmachine, based on wavelet features obtained from Gaussian process fits, yielding a similar performance to the winning PLAsTiCC entry. We study the classification performance for SNe with different properties within a single simulated observing strategy. We find that season length is important, with light curves of 150 days yielding the highest performance. Cadence also has an important impact on SNe classification; events with median inter-night gap <3.5 days yield higher classification performance. Interestingly, we find that large gaps (>10 days) in light-curve observations do not impact performance if sufficient observations are available on either side, due to the effectiveness of the Gaussian process interpolation. This analysis is the first exploration of the impact of observing strategy on photometric SN classification with LSST.
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| 5. |
- Bellm, Eric C., et al.
(author)
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The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
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| 6. |
- Bianco, Federica B., et al.
(author)
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Presto-Color : A Photometric Survey Cadence for Explosive Physics and Fast Transients
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:1000
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We identify minimal observing cadence requirements that enable photometric astronomical surveys to detect and recognize fast and explosive transients and fast transient features. Observations in two different filters within a short time window (e.g., g-and-i, or r-and-z, within <0.5 hr) and a repeat of one of those filters with a longer time window (e.g., >1.5 hr) are desirable for this purpose. Such an observing strategy delivers both the color and light curve evolution of transients on the same night. This allows the identification and initial characterization of fast transient-or fast features of longer timescale transients-such as rapidly declining supernovae, kilonovae, and the signatures of SN ejecta interacting with binary companion stars or circumstellar material. Some of these extragalactic transients are intrinsically rare and generally all hard to find, thus upcoming surveys like the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) could dramatically improve our understanding of their origin and properties. We colloquially refer to such a strategy implementation for the LSST as the Presto-Color strategy (rapid-color). This cadence's minimal requirements allow for overall optimization of a survey for other science goals.
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| 7. |
- Biswas, Rahul, et al.
(author)
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Enabling Catalog Simulations of Transient and Variable Sources Based on LSST Cadence Strategies
- 2020
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 247:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) project will conduct a 10 year multi-band survey starting in 2022. Observing strategies for this survey are being actively investigated, and the science capabilities can be best forecasted on the basis of simulated strategies from the LSST Operations Simulator (OpSim). OpSim simulates a stochastic realization of the sequence of LSST pointings over the survey duration, and is based on a model of the observatory (including telescope) and historical data of observational conditions. OpSim outputs contain a record of each simulated pointing of the survey along with a complete characterization of the pointing in terms of observing conditions, and some useful quantities derived from the characteristics of the pointing. Thus, each record can be efficiently used to derive the properties of observations of all astrophysical sources found in that pointing. However, in order to obtain the time series of observations (light curves) of a set of sources, it is often more convenient to compute all observations of an astrophysical source, and iterate over sources. In this document, we describe the open source python package OpSimSummary, which allows for a convenient reordering. The objectives of this package are to provide users with an Application Programming Interface for accessing all such observations and summarizing this information in the form of intermediate data products usable by third party software such as SNANA, thereby also bridging the gap between official LSST products and preexisting simulation codes.
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| 8. |
- Biswas, Rahul, et al.
(author)
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Two c's in a pod : cosmology-independent measurement of the Type Ia supernova colour-luminosity relation with a sibling pair
- 2022
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 509:4, s. 5340-5356
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) observations, we identify a pair of ‘sibling’ Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), i.e. hosted by the same galaxy at z = 0.0541. They exploded within 200 d from each other at a separation of 0.6arcsec0.6arcsec corresponding to a projected distance of only 0.6 kpc. Performing SALT2 light-curve fits to the gri ZTF photometry, we show that for these equally distant ‘standardizable candles’, there is a difference of 2 mag in their rest-frame B-band peaks, and the fainter supernova (SN) has a significantly red SALT2 colour c = 0.57 ± 0.04, while the stretch values x1 of the two SNe are similar, suggesting that the fainter SN is attenuated by dust in the interstellar medium of the host galaxy. We use these measurements to infer the SALT2 colour standardization parameter, β = 3.5 ± 0.3, independent of the underlying cosmology and Malmquist bias. Assuming the colour excess is entirely due to dust, the result differs by 2σ from the average Milky Way total-to-selective extinction ratio, but is in good agreement with the colour–brightness corrections empirically derived from the most recent SN Ia Hubble–Lemaitre diagram fits. Thus we suggest that SN ‘siblings’, which will increasingly be discovered in the coming years, can be used to probe the validity of the colour and light-curve shape corrections using in SN Ia cosmology while avoiding important systematic effects in their inference from global multiparameter fits to inhomogeneous data sets, and also help constrain the role of interstellar dust in SN Ia cosmology.
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| 9. |
- Biswas, Srijit, et al.
(author)
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Atom-Efficient Gold(I)-Chloride-Catalyzed Synthesis of alpha-Sulfenylated Carbonyl Compounds from Propargylic Alcohols and Aryl Thiols : Substrate Scope and Experimental and Theoretical Mechanistic Investigation
- 2013
-
In: Chemistry - A European Journal. - : Wiley. - 0947-6539 .- 1521-3765. ; 19:52, s. 17939-17950
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gold(I)-chloride-catalyzed synthesis of -sulfenylated carbonyl compounds from propargylic alcohols and aryl thiols showed a wide substrate scope with respect to both propargylic alcohols and aryl thiols. Primary and secondary aromatic propargylic alcohols generated -sulfenylated aldehydes and ketones in 60-97% yield. Secondary aliphatic propargylic alcohols generated -sulfenylated ketones in yields of 47-71%. Different gold sources and ligand effects were studied, and it was shown that gold(I) chloride gave the highest product yields. Experimental and theoretical studies demonstrated that the reaction proceeds in two separate steps. A sulfenylated allylic alcohol, generated by initial regioselective attack of the aryl thiol on the triple bond of the propargylic alcohol, was isolated, evaluated, and found to be an intermediate in the reaction. Deuterium labeling experiments showed that the protons from the propargylic alcohol and aryl thiol were transferred to the 3-position, and that the hydride from the alcohol was transferred to the 2-position of the product. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations showed that the observed regioselectivity of the aryl thiol attack towards the 2-position of propargylic alcohol was determined by a low-energy, five-membered cyclic protodeauration transition state instead of the strained, four-membered cyclic transition state found for attack at the 3-position. Experimental data and DFT calculations supported that the second step of the reaction is initiated by protonation of the double bond of the sulfenylated allylic alcohol with a proton donor coordinated to gold(I) chloride. This in turn allows for a 1,2-hydride shift, generating the final product of the reaction.
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| 10. |
- Biswas, Srijit, et al.
(author)
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Tandem Pd/Au-Catalyzed Route to alpha-Sulfenylated Carbonyl Compounds from Terminal Propargylic Alcohols and Thiols
- 2014
-
In: Chemistry - A European Journal. - : Wiley. - 0947-6539 .- 1521-3765. ; 20:8, s. 2159-2163
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An efficient and highly atom-economical tandem Pd/Au-catalyzed route to -sulfenylated carbonyl compounds from terminal propargylic alcohols and thiols has been developed. This one-step procedure has a wide substrate scope with respect to substituents at the -position of the alcohol. Both aromatic and aliphatic thiols generated the -sulfenylated carbonyl products in good to excellent yields. A mechanism is proposed in which the reaction proceeds through a Pd-catalyzed regioselective hydrothiolation at the terminal triple bond of the propargyl alcohol followed by an Au-catalyzed 1,2-hydride migration.
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| 11. |
- Bulla, Mattia, et al.
(author)
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ZTF Early Observations of Type Ia Supernovae. III. Early-time Colors As a Test for Explosion Models and Multiple Populations
- 2020
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 902:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Colors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the first few days after explosion provide a potential discriminant between different models. In this paper, we present g - r colors of 65 SNe Ia discovered within 5 days from first light by the Zwicky Transient Facility in 2018, a sample that is about three times larger than that in the literature. We find that g - r colors are intrinsically rather homogeneous at early phases, with about half of the dispersion attributable to photometric uncertainties (0.18 mag). Colors are nearly constant starting from 6 days after first light (g-r similar to -0.15 mag), while the time evolution at earlier epochs is characterized by a continuous range of slopes, from events rapidly transitioning from redder to bluer colors (slope of similar to-0.25 mag day(-1)) to events with a flatter evolution. The continuum in the slope distribution is in good agreement both with models requiring some amount of Ni-56 mixed in the outermost regions of the ejecta and with double-detonation models having thin helium layers (M-He = 0.01 M-circle dot) and varying carbon-oxygen core masses. At the same time, six events show evidence for a distinctive red bump signature predicted by double-detonation models with larger helium masses. We finally identify a significant correlation between the early-timeg - rslopes and supernova brightness, with brighter events associated to flatter color evolution (p-value = 0.006). The distribution of slopes, however, is consistent with being drawn from a single population, with no evidence for two components as claimed in the literature based on B - V colors.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Bunrit, Anon, et al.
(author)
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H3PO2-Catalyzed Intramolecular Stereospecific Substitution of the Hydroxyl Group in Enantioenriched Secondary Alcohols by N-, O-, and S-Centered Nucleophiles to Generate Heterocycles
- 2020
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In: ACS Catalysis. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2155-5435. ; 10:2, s. 1344-1352
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The direct intramolecular stereospecific substitution of the hydroxyl group in enantiomerically enriched secondary benzylic, allylic, propargylic, and alkyl alcohols was successfully accomplished by phosphinic acid catalysis. The hydroxyl group was displaced by O-, S-, and N-centered nucleophiles to provide enantioenriched five-membered tetrahydrofuran, pyrrolidine, and tetrahydrothiophene as well as six-membered tetrahydroquinolines and chromanes in up to a 99% yield and 100% enantiospecificity with water as the only byproduct. Mechanistic studies using both experiments and calculations have been performed for substrates generating 5-membered heterocycles. Rate studies show dependences in a catalyst, an internal nucleophile, and an electrophile, however, independence in an external nucleophile, an electrophile, or water. Kinetic isotope effect studies show an inverse KIE of k(H)/k(D) = 0.79. Furthermore, phosphinic acid does not promote S(N)1 reactivity. Computational studies support a bifunctional role of the phosphinic acid in which activation of both nucleofuge and nucleophile occurs in a bridging S(N)2-type transition state. In this transition state, the acidic hydrogen of phosphinic acid protonates the leaving hydroxyl group simultaneously as the oxo group partially deprotonates the nucleophile. Thereby, phosphinic acid promotes the substitution of the nonderivatized hydroxyl group in enantioenriched secondary alcohols by uncharged nucleophiles with conservation of the chirality from the alcohol to the heterocycle.
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| 14. |
- Bunrit, Anon, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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H3PO2-Catalyzed Intramolecular Stereospecific Substitution of the Hydroxyl Group in Stereogenic Secondary Alcohols by N-, O-, and S-centered Nucleophiles to Generate Heterocycles
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The direct intramolecular stereospecific substitution of the hydroxyl group in stereogenic secondary alcohols was successfully accomplished by phosphinic acid catalysis. The hydroxyl group was displaced by O-, S-, and N-centered nucleophiles to provide enantioenriched five- and six-membered heterocycles in good to excellent yields and high enantiospecificity with water as the only by product. Mechanistic studies using both experiments and calculations have been performed. Rate order determination shows first-order dependences in catalyst, internal nucleophile, and electrophile concentrations, however, independence on external nucleophile and electrophile. Furthermore, phosphinic acid does not promote SN1 reactivity. Computational studies support a bifunctional role of the phosphinic acid in which activations of both nucleofuge and nucleophile occur in a bridging SN2-type transition state.
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| 15. |
- Bunrit, Anon, 1986-, et al.
(author)
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Iron (III)-Catalyzed Intramolecular Stereospecific Substitution of the OH Group in Stereogenic Secondary and Tertiary Alcohols
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- We herein report a Fe(OTf)3-catalyzed stereospecific substitution of the hydroxyl (OH) group in secondary and tertiary alcohols by N-, and O-centered nucleophiles to generate synthetically precious enantioenriched pyrrolidines, tetrahydrofuran, 1,2,3,4-tetra-hydroquinolines, and chromanes. The substitution of the OH group in benzylic, allylic, and aliphatic alcohols proceed with high yields and high degree of enantiospecificity to give saturated five- and six-membered heterocyclic products and water as the only by-product. Mechanistic studies revealed that the intramolecular substitution reaction proceeds through an SN2 reaction with secondary alcohols and an SN1 reaction, comprising a tight ion pair, with tertiary alcohols giving products with inversion of configuration at the stereogenic carbon in both cases. The iron interacts with both nucleofile and nucloefuge, where the latter leads to a controlled carbon−oxygen (C–O) bond cleavage. The procedure opens up new atom efficient technique for catalytic stereospecific reactions that allow easily accessible stereogenic secondary and tertiary alcohols to be considered as substrates in substitution reactions.
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| 16. |
- Cadu, Alban, 1987-, et al.
(author)
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One-Pot Synthesis of Keto Thioethers by Palladium/Gold-Catalyzed Click and Pinacol Reactions
- 2014
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In: Organic Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1523-7060 .- 1523-7052. ; 16:21, s. 5556-5559
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An atom-efficient synthesis of keto thioethers was devised via tandem gold/palladium catalysis. The reaction proceeds through a regioselective thiol attack at the β-position of the alcohol, followed by an alkyl, aryl, or benzyl 1,2-shift. Both acyclic and cyclic systems were studied, in the latter case leading to the ring expansion of cyclic substrates.
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| 17. |
- Campbell, Heather, et al.
(author)
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COSMOLOGY WITH PHOTOMETRICALLY CLASSIFIED TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE FROM THE SDSS-II SUPERNOVA SURVEY
- 2013
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 763:2, s. 88-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the cosmological analysis of 752 photometrically classified Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) obtained from the full Sloan Digital Sky Survey II (SDSS-II) Supernova (SN) Survey, supplemented with host-galaxy spectroscopy from the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. Our photometric-classification method is based on the SN classification technique of Sako et al., aided by host-galaxy redshifts (0.05 < z < 0.55). SuperNova ANAlysis simulations of our methodology estimate that we have an SN Ia classification efficiency of 70.8%, with only 3.9% contamination from core-collapse (non-Ia) SNe. We demonstrate that this level of contamination has no effect on our cosmological constraints. We quantify and correct for our selection effects (e. g., Malmquist bias) using simulations. When fitting to a flat.CDM cosmological model, we find that our photometric sample alone gives Omega(m) = 0.24(-0.05)(+0.07) (statistical errors only). If we relax the constraint on flatness, then our sample provides competitive joint statistical constraints on Omega(m) and Omega(Lambda), comparable to those derived from the spectroscopically confirmed Three-year Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS3). Using only our data, the statistics-only result favors an accelerating universe at 99.96% confidence. Assuming a constant wCDM cosmological model, and combining with H-0, cosmic microwave background, and luminous red galaxy data, we obtain w = -0.96(-0.10)(+0.10), Omega(m) = 0.29(-0.02)(+0.02), and Omega(k) = 0.00(-0.02)(+0.03)(statistical errors only), which is competitive with similar spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia analyses. Overall this comparison is reassuring, considering the lower redshift leverage of the SDSS-II SN sample (z < 0.55) and the lack of spectroscopic confirmation used herein. These results demonstrate the potential of photometrically classified SN Ia samples in improving cosmological constraints.
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| 18. |
- Coughlin, Michael W., et al.
(author)
-
GROWTH on S190425z : Searching Thousands of Square Degrees to Identify an Optical or Infrared Counterpart to a Binary Neutron Star Merger with the Zwicky Transient Facility and Palomar Gattini-IR
- 2019
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 885:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The third observing run by LVC has brought the discovery of many compact binary coalescences. Following the detection of the first binary neutron star merger in this run (LIGO/Virgo S190425z), we performed a dedicated follow-up campaign with the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and Palomar Gattini-IR telescopes. The initial skymap of this single-detector gravitational wave (GW) trigger spanned most of the sky observable from Palomar Observatory. Covering 8000 deg(2) of the initial skymap over the next two nights, corresponding to 46% integrated probability, ZTF system achieved a depth of 21 m(AB) in g- and r-bands. Palomar Gattini-IR covered 2200 square degrees in J-band to a depth of 15.5 mag, including 32% integrated probability based on the initial skymap. The revised skymap issued the following day reduced these numbers to 21% for the ZTF and 19% for Palomar Gattini-IR. We narrowed 338,646 ZTF transient ?alerts? over the first two nights of observations to 15 candidate counterparts. Two candidates, ZTF19aarykkb and ZTF19aarzaod, were particularly compelling given that their location, distance, and age were consistent with the GW event, and their early optical light curves were photometrically consistent with that of kilonovae. These two candidates were spectroscopically classified as young core-collapse supernovae. The remaining candidates were ruled out as supernovae. Palomar Gattini-IR did not identify any viable candidates with multiple detections only after merger time. We demonstrate that even with single-detector GW events localized to thousands of square degrees, systematic kilonova discovery is feasible.
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| 19. |
- Dhawan, Suhail, et al.
(author)
-
The Zwicky Transient Facility Type Ia supernova survey : first data release and results
- 2022
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 510:2, s. 2228-2241
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the nearby Hubble flow are excellent distance indicators in cosmology. The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) has observed a large sample of SNe from an untargeted, rolling survey, reaching 20.8, 20.6, and 20.3 mag in g r, and i band, respectively. With an FoV of 47 deg(2), ZTF discovered > 3000 SNe Ia in a little over 2.5 yr. Here, we report on the sample of 761 spectroscopically classified SNe Ia from the first year of operations (DR1). The sample has a median redshift (z) over bar = 0.057, nearly a factor of 2 higher than the current low-z sample. Our sample has a total of 934 spectra, of which 632 were obtained with the robotic SEDm on Palomar P60. We assess the potential for precision cosmology for a total of 305 SNe with redshifts from host galaxy spectra. The sample is already comparable in size to the entire combined literature low-z anchor sample. The median first detection is 13.5 d before maximum light, about 10 d earlier than the median in the literature. Furthermore, six SNe from our sample are at D-L < 80 Mpc, for which host galaxy distances can be obtained in the JAMES WEBB SPACE TELESCOPE era, such that we have calibrator and Hubble flow SNe observed with the same instrument. In the entire duration of ZTF-I, we have observed nearly 50 SNe for which we can obtain calibrator distances, key for per cent level distance scale measurements.
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| 20. |
- Graham, Matthew J., et al.
(author)
-
The Zwicky Transient Facility : Science Objectives
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:1001
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), a public-private enterprise, is a new time-domain survey employing a dedicated camera on the Palomar 48-inch Schmidt telescope with a 47 deg(2) field of view and an 8 second readout time. It is well positioned in the development of time-domain astronomy, offering operations at 10% of the scale and style of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) with a single 1-m class survey telescope. The public surveys will cover the observable northern sky every three nights in g and r filters and the visible Galactic plane every night in g and r. Alerts generated by these surveys are sent in real time to brokers. A consortium of universities that provided funding (partnership) are undertaking several boutique surveys. The combination of these surveys producing one million alerts per night allows for exploration of transient and variable astrophysical phenomena brighter than r similar to 20.5 on timescales of minutes to years. We describe the primary science objectives driving ZTF, including the physics of supernovae and relativistic explosions, multi-messenger astrophysics, supernova cosmology, active galactic nuclei, and tidal disruption events, stellar variability, and solar system objects.
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| 21. |
- Graham, Melissa L., et al.
(author)
-
Supernova siblings and their parent galaxies in the Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey
- 2022
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 511:1, s. 241-254
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Supernova (SN) siblings - two or more SNe in the same parent galaxy - are useful tools for exploring progenitor stellar populations as well as properties of the host galaxies such as distance, star-formation rate, dust extinction, and metallicity. Since the average SN rate for a Milky Way-type galaxy is just one per century, a large imaging survey is required to discover an appreciable sample of SN siblings. From the wide-field Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey (which aims for spectroscopic completeness for all transients which peak brighter than r < 18.5 mag) we present 10 SN siblings in five parent galaxies. For each of these families, we analyse the SN's location within the host and its underlying stellar population, finding agreement with expectations that SNe from more massive progenitors are found nearer to their host core and in regions of more active star formation. We also present an analysis of the relative rates of core collapse and thermonuclear SN siblings, finding a significantly lower ratio than past SN sibling samples due to the unbiased nature of the ZTF.
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| 22. |
- Hlozek, R., et al.
(author)
-
Results of the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)
- 2023
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 267:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Next-generation surveys like the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) on the Vera C. Rubin Observatory (Rubin) will generate orders of magnitude more discoveries of transients and variable stars than previous surveys. To prepare for this data deluge, we developed the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a competition that aimed to catalyze the development of robust classifiers under LSST-like conditions of a nonrepresentative training set for a large photometric test set of imbalanced classes. Over 1000 teams participated in PLAsTiCC, which was hosted in the Kaggle data science competition platform between 2018 September 28 and 2018 December 17, ultimately identifying three winners in 2019 February. Participants produced classifiers employing a diverse set of machine-learning techniques including hybrid combinations and ensemble averages of a range of approaches, among them boosted decision trees, neural networks, and multilayer perceptrons. The strong performance of the top three classifiers on Type Ia supernovae and kilonovae represent a major improvement over the current state of the art within astronomy. This paper summarizes the most promising methods and evaluates their results in detail, highlighting future directions both for classifier development and simulation needs for a next-generation PLAsTiCC data set.
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| 23. |
- Huerta, E. A., et al.
(author)
-
Enabling real-time multi-messenger astrophysics discoveries with deep learning
- 2019
-
In: Nature reviews physics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2522-5820. ; 1:10, s. 600-608
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Multi-messenger astrophysics is a fast-growing, interdisciplinary field that combines data, which vary in volume and speed of data processing, from many different instruments that probe the Universe using different cosmic messengers: electromagnetic waves, cosmic rays, gravitational waves and neutrinos. In this Expert Recommendation, we review the key challenges of real-time observations of gravitational wave sources and their electromagnetic and astroparticle counterparts, and make a number of recommendations to maximize their potential for scientific discovery. These recommendations refer to the design of scalable and computationally efficient machine learning algorithms; the cyber-infrastructure to numerically simulate astrophysical sources, and to process and interpret multi-messenger astrophysics data; the management of gravitational wave detections to trigger real-time alerts for electromagnetic and astroparticle follow-ups; a vision to harness future developments of machine learning and cyber-infrastructure resources to cope with the big-data requirements; and the need to build a community of experts to realize the goals of multi-messenger astrophysics. A group of experts suggests ways in which deep learning can be used to enhance the potential for discovery in multi-messenger astrophysics.
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| 24. |
- Ivezić, Željko, et al.
(author)
-
LSST : From Science Drivers to Reference Design and Anticipated Data Products
- 2019
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 873:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe here the most ambitious survey currently planned in the optical, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). The LSST design is driven by four main science themes: probing dark energy and dark matter, taking an inventory of the solar system, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. LSST will be a large, wide-field ground-based system designed to obtain repeated images covering the sky visible from Cerro Pachon in northern Chile. The telescope will have an 8.4 m (6.5 m effective) primary mirror, a 9.6 deg(2) field of view, a 3.2-gigapixel camera, and six filters (ugrizy) covering the wavelength range 320-1050 nm. The project is in the construction phase and will begin regular survey operations by 2022. About 90% of the observing time will be devoted to a deep-wide-fast survey mode that will uniformly observe a 18,000 deg(2) region about 800 times (summed over all six bands) during the anticipated 10 yr of operations and will yield a co-added map to r similar to 27.5. These data will result in databases including about 32 trillion observations of 20 billion galaxies and a similar number of stars, and they will serve the majority of the primary science programs. The remaining 10% of the observing time will be allocated to special projects such as Very Deep and Very Fast time domain surveys, whose details are currently under discussion. We illustrate how the LSST science drivers led to these choices of system parameters, and we describe the expected data products and their characteristics.
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| 25. |
- Kessler, R., et al.
(author)
-
Models and Simulations for the Photometric LSST Astronomical Time Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC)
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:1003
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe the simulated data sample for the Photometric Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Astronomical Time Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC), a publicly available challenge to classify transient and variable events that will be observed by the LSST, a new facility expected to start in the early 2020s. The challenge was hosted by Kaggle, ran from 2018 September 28 to December 17, and included 1094 teams competing for prizes. Here we provide details of the 18 transient and variable source models, which were not revealed until after the challenge, and release the model libraries at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2612896. We describe the LSST Operations Simulator used to predict realistic observing conditions, and we describe the publicly available SNANA simulation code used to transform the models into observed fluxes and uncertainties in the LSST passbands (ugrizy). Although PLAsTiCC has finished, the publicly available models and simulation tools are being used within the astronomy community to further improve classification, and to study contamination in photometrically identified samples of SN Ia used to measure properties of dark energy. Our simulation framework will continue serving as a platform to improve the PLAsTiCC models, and to develop new models.
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| 26. |
- Kupfer, Thomas, et al.
(author)
-
Year 1 of the ZTF high-cadence Galactic plane survey : strategy, goals, and early results on new single-mode hot subdwarf B-star pulsatos
- 2021
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 505:1, s. 1254-1267
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the goals, strategy, and first results of the high-cadence Galactic plane survey using the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). The goal of the survey is to unveil the Galactic population of short-period variable stars, including short-period binaries, and stellar pulsators with periods less than a few hours. Between 2018 June and 2019 January, we observed 64 ZTF fields resulting in 2990 deg2 of high stellar density in the ZTF-r band along the Galactic plane. Each field was observed continuously for 1.5 to 6 h with a cadence of 40 sec. Most fields have between 200 and 400 observations obtained over 2–3 continuous nights. As part of this survey, we extract a total of ≈230 million individual objects with at least 80 epochs obtained during the high-cadence Galactic plane survey reaching an average depth of ZTF–r ≈ 20.5 mag. For four selected fields with 2–10 million individual objects per field, we calculate different variability statistics and find that ≈1–2 per cent of the objects are astrophysically variable over the observed period. We present a progress report on recent discoveries, including a new class of compact pulsators, the first members of a new class of Roche lobe filling hot subdwarf binaries as well as new ultracompact double white dwarfs and flaring stars. Finally, we present a sample of 12 new single-mode hot subdwarf B-star pulsators with pulsation amplitudes between ZTF–r = 20–76 mmag and pulsation periods between P = 5.8–16 min with a strong cluster of systems with periods ≈6 min. All of the data have now been released in either ZTF Data Release 3 or Data Release 4.
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| 27. |
- Lochner, Michelle, et al.
(author)
-
Optimizing the LSST Observing Strategy for Dark Energy Science : DESC Recommendations for the Wide-Fast-Deep Survey
- 2018
-
Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Cosmology is one of the four science pillars of LSST, which promises to be transformative for our understanding of dark energy and dark matter. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) has been tasked with deriving constraints on cosmological parameters from LSST data. Each of the cosmological probes for LSST is heavily impacted by the choice of observing strategy. This white paper is written by the LSST DESC Observing Strategy Task Force (OSTF), which represents the entire collaboration, and aims to make recommendations on observing strategy that will benefit all cosmological analyses with LSST. It is accompanied by the DESC DDF (Deep Drilling Fields) white paper (Scolnic et al.). We use a variety of metrics to understand the effects of the observing strategy on measurements of weak lensing, large-scale structure, clusters, photometric redshifts, supernovae, strong lensing and kilonovae. In order to reduce systematic uncertainties, we conclude that the current baseline observing strategy needs to be significantly modified to result in the best possible cosmological constraints. We provide some key recommendations: moving the WFD (Wide-Fast-Deep) footprint to avoid regions of high extinction, taking visit pairs in different filters, changing the 2x15s snaps to a single exposure to improve efficiency, focusing on strategies that reduce long gaps (>15 days) between observations, and prioritizing spatial uniformity at several intervals during the 10-year survey.
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| 28. |
- Lochner, Michelle, et al.
(author)
-
The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSST
- 2022
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 259:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The generation-defining Vera C. Rubin Observatory will make state-of-the-art measurements of both the static and transient universe through its Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST). With such capabilities, it is immensely challenging to optimize the LSST observing strategy across the survey's wide range of science drivers. Many aspects of the LSST observing strategy relevant to the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, such as survey footprint definition, single-visit exposure time, and the cadence of repeat visits in different filters, are yet to be finalized. Here, we present metrics used to assess the impact of observing strategy on the cosmological probes considered most sensitive to survey design; these are large-scale structure, weak lensing, type Ia supernovae, kilonovae, and strong lens systems (as well as photometric redshifts, which enable many of these probes). We evaluate these metrics for over 100 different simulated potential survey designs. Our results show that multiple observing strategy decisions can profoundly impact cosmological constraints with LSST; these include adjusting the survey footprint, ensuring repeat nightly visits are taken in different filters, and enforcing regular cadence. We provide public code for our metrics, which makes them readily available for evaluating further modifications to the survey design. We conclude with a set of recommendations and highlight observing strategy factors that require further research.
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| 29. |
- Mahabal, Ashish, et al.
(author)
-
Machine Learning for the Zwicky Transient Facility
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:997
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Zwicky Transient Facility is a large optical survey in multiple filters producing hundreds of thousands of transient alerts per night. We describe here various machine learning (ML) implementations and plans to make the maximal use of the large data set by taking advantage of the temporal nature of the data, and further combining it with other data sets. We start with the initial steps of separating bogus candidates from real ones, separating stars and galaxies, and go on to the classification of real objects into various classes. Besides the usual methods (e.g., based on features extracted from light curves) we also describe early plans for alternate methods including the use of domain adaptation, and deep learning. In a similar fashion we describe efforts to detect fast moving asteroids. We also describe the use of the Zooniverse platform for helping with classifications through the creation of training samples, and active learning. Finally we mention the synergistic aspects of ZTF and LSST from the ML perspective.
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| 30. |
- Malz, A., et al.
(author)
-
The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge PLAsTiCC : Selection of a Performance Metric for Classification Probabilities Balancing Diverse Science Goals
- 2019
-
In: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 158:5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Classification of transient and variable light curves is an essential step in using astronomical observations to develop an understanding of the underlying physical processes from which they arise. However, upcoming deep photometric surveys, including the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), will produce a deluge of low signal-to-noise data for which traditional type estimation procedures are inappropriate. Probabilistic classification is more appropriate for such data but is incompatible with the traditional metrics used on deterministic classifications. Furthermore, large survey collaborations like LSST intend to use the resulting classification probabilities for diverse science objectives, indicating a need for a metric that balances a variety of goals. We describe the process used to develop an optimal performance metric for an open classification challenge that seeks to identify probabilistic classifiers that can serve many scientific interests. The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLASTICC) aims to identify promising techniques for obtaining classification probabilities of transient and variable objects by engaging a broader community beyond astronomy. Using mock classification probability submissions emulating realistically complex archetypes of those anticipated of PLASTICC, we compare the sensitivity of two metrics of classification probabilities under various weighting schemes, finding that both yield results that are qualitatively consistent with intuitive notions of classification performance. We thus choose as a metric for PLASTICC a weighted modification of the cross-entropy because it can be meaningfully interpreted in terms of information content. Finally, we propose extensions of our methodology to ever more complex challenge goals and suggest some guiding principles for approaching the choice of a metric of probabilistic data products.
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| 31. |
- Miranda, N., et al.
(author)
-
SNGuess : A method for the selection of young extragalactic transients
- 2022
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 665
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. With a rapidly rising number of transients detected in astronomy, classification methods based on machine learning are increasingly being employed. Their goals are typically to obtain a definitive classification of transients, and for good performance they usually require the presence of a large set of observations. However, well-designed, targeted models can reach their classification goals with fewer computing resources.Aims. The aim of this study is to assist in the observational astronomy task of deciding whether a newly detected transient warrants follow-up observations.Methods. This paper presents SNGuess, a model designed to find young extragalactic nearby transients with high purity. SNGuess works with a set of features that can be efficiently calculated from astronomical alert data. Some of these features are static and associated with the alert metadata, while others must be calculated from the photometric observations contained in the alert. Most of the features are simple enough to be obtained or to be calculated already at the early stages in the lifetime of a transient after its detection. We calculate these features for a set of labeled public alert data obtained over a time span of 15 months from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF). The core model of SNGuess consists of an ensemble of decision trees, which are trained via gradient boosting.Results. Approximately 88% of the candidates suggested by SNGuess from a set of alerts from ZTF spanning from April 2020 to August 2021 were found to be true relevant supernovae (SNe). For alerts with bright detections, this number ranges between 92% and 98%. Since April 2020, transients identified by SNGuess as potential young SNe in the ZTF alert stream are being published to the Transient Name Server (TNS) under the AMPEL_ZTF_NEW group identifier. SNGuess scores for any transient observed by ZTF can be accessed via a web service https : //ampel.zeuthen.desy. de/api/live/does. The source code of SNGuess is publicly available https://github com/nmiranda/SNGuess.Conclusions. SNGuess is a lightweight, portable, and easily re-trainable model that can effectively suggest transients for follow-up. These properties make it a useful tool for optimizing follow-up observation strategies and for assisting humans in the process of selecting candidate transients.
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| 32. |
- Muthukrishna, Daniel, et al.
(author)
-
RAPID : Early Classification of Explosive Transients Using Deep Learning
- 2019
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:1005
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present Real-time Automated Photometric IDentification (RAPID), a novel time series classification tool capable of automatically identifying transients from within a day of the initial alert, to the full lifetime of a light curve. Using a deep recurrent neural network with gated recurrent units (GRUs), we present the first method specifically designed to provide early classifications of astronomical timeseries data, typing 12 different transient classes. Our classifier can process light curves with any phase coverage, and it does not rely on deriving computationally expensive features from the data, making RAPID well suited for processing the millions of alerts that ongoing and upcoming wide-field surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will produce. The classification accuracy improves over the lifetime of the transient as more photometric data becomes available, and across the 12 transient classes, we obtain an average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.95 and 0.98 at early and late epochs, respectively. We demonstrate RAPID's ability to effectively provide early classifications of observed transients from the ZTF data stream. We have made RAPID available as an open-source software package(8) for machine-learning-based alert brokers to use for the autonomous and quick classification of several thousand light curves within a few seconds.
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| 33. |
- Perley, Daniel A., et al.
(author)
-
The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. II. A Public Statistical Sample for Exploring Supernova Demographics
- 2020
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 904:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a public catalog of transients from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey, a magnitude-limited (m g or r filter) survey for extragalactic transients in the ZTF public stream. We introduce cuts on survey coverage, sky visibility around peak light, and other properties unconnected to the nature of the transient, and show that the resulting statistical sample is spectroscopically 97% complete at <18 mag, 93% complete at <18.5 mag, and 75% complete at <19 mag. We summarize the fundamental properties of this population, identifying distinct duration-luminosity correlations in a variety of supernova (SN) classes and associating the majority of fast optical transients with well-established spectroscopic SN types (primarily SN Ibn and II/IIb). We measure the Type Ia SN and core-collapse (CC) SN rates and luminosity functions, which show good consistency with recent work. About 7% of CC SNe explode in very low-luminosity galaxies (M-i > -16 mag), 10% in red-sequence galaxies, and 1% in massive ellipticals. We find no significant difference in the luminosity or color distributions between the host galaxies of SNe Type II and SNe Type Ib/c, suggesting that line-driven wind stripping does not play a major role in the loss of the hydrogen envelope from their progenitors. Future large-scale classification efforts with ZTF and other wide-area surveys will provide high-quality measurements of the rates, properties, and environments of all known types of optical transients and limits on the existence of theoretically predicted but as yet unobserved explosions.
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| 34. |
- Sanchez, B. O., et al.
(author)
-
SNIa Cosmology Analysis Results from Simulated LSST Images : From Difference Imaging to Constraints on Dark Energy
- 2022
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 934:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to process ∼106 transient detections per night. For precision measurements of cosmological parameters and rates, it is critical to understand the detection efficiency, magnitude limits, artifact contamination levels, and biases in the selection and photometry. Here we rigorously test the LSST Difference Image Analysis (DIA) pipeline using simulated images from the Rubin Observatory LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration Data Challenge (DC2) simulation for the Wide-Fast-Deep survey area. DC2 is the first large-scale (300 deg2) image simulation of a transient survey that includes realistic cadence, variable observing conditions, and CCD image artifacts. We analyze ∼15 deg2 of DC2 over a 5 yr time span in which artificial point sources from Type Ia supernova (SNIa) light curves have been overlaid onto the images. The magnitude limits per filter are u = 23.66 mag, g = 24.69 mag, r = 24.06 mag, i = 23.45 mag, z = 22.54 mag, and y = 21.62 mag. The artifact contamination levels are ∼90% of all detections, corresponding to ∼1000 artifacts deg–2 in g band, and falling to 300 deg–2 in y band. The photometry has biases <1% for magnitudes 19.5 < m < 23. Our DIA performance on simulated images is similar to that of the Dark Energy Survey difference-imaging pipeline on real images. We also characterize DC2 image properties to produce catalog-level simulations needed for distance bias corrections. We find good agreement between DC2 data and simulations for distributions of signal-to-noise ratio, redshift, and fitted light-curve properties. Applying a realistic SNIa cosmology analysis for redshifts z < 1, we recover the input cosmology parameters to within statistical uncertainties.
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| 35. |
- Scolnic, D., et al.
(author)
-
How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?
- 2018
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 852:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc(-3) yr(-1), consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z = 0.8 for WFIRST, z = 0.25 for LSST, and z = 0.04 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.
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| 36. |
- Setzer, Christian N., et al.
(author)
-
Serendipitous discoveries of kilonovae in the LSST main survey : maximizing detections of sub-threshold gravitational wave events
- 2019
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 485:3, s. 4260-4273
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate the ability of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) to discover kilonovae (kNe) from binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers, focusing on serendipitous detections in the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) survey. We simulate observations of kNe with proposed LSST survey strategies, focusing on cadence choices that are compatible with the broader LSST cosmology programme. If all kNe are identical to GW170817, we find the baseline survey strategy will yield 58 kNe over the survey lifetime. If we instead assume a representative population model of BNS kNe, we expect to detect only 27 kNe. However, we find the choice of survey strategy significantly impacts these numbers and can increase them to 254 and 82 kNe over the survey lifetime, respectively. This improvement arises from an increased cadence of observations between different filters with respect to the baseline. We then consider the detectability of these BNS mergers by the Advanced LIGO/Virgo (ALV) detector network. If the optimal survey strategy is adopted, 202 of the GW170817-like kNe and 56 of the BNS population model kNe are detected with LSST but are below the threshold for detection by the ALV network. This represents, for both models, an increase by a factor greater than 4.5 in the number of detected sub-threshold events over the baseline strategy. These subthreshold events would provide an opportunity to conduct electromagnetic-triggered searches for signals in gravitational-wave data and assess selection effects in measurements of the Hubble constant from standard sirens, e.g. viewing angle effects.
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| 37. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 38. |
- Watile, Rahul A., et al.
(author)
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Intramolecular substitutions of secondary and tertiary alcohols with chirality transfer by an iron(III) catalyst
- 2019
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In: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optically pure alcohols are abundant in nature and attractive as feedstock for organic synthesis but challenging for further transformation using atom efficient and sustainable methodologies, particularly when there is a desire to conserve the chirality. Usually, substitution of the OH group of stereogenic alcohols with conservation of chirality requires derivatization as part of a complex, stoichiometric procedure. We herein demonstrate that a simple, inexpensive, and environmentally benign iron(III) catalyst promotes the direct intramolecular substitution of enantiomerically enriched secondary and tertiary alcohols with O-, N-, and S-centered nucleophiles to generate valuable 5-membered, 6-membered and aryl-fused 6-membered heterocyclic compounds with chirality transfer and water as the only byproduct. The power of the methodology is demonstrated in the total synthesis of (+)-lentiginosine from D-glucose where iron-catalysis is used in a key step. Adoption of this methodology will contribute towards the transition to sustainable and bio-based processes in the pharmaceutical and agrochemical industries. © 2019, The Author(s).
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