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- Bock, Wolfgang, et al.
(author)
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Testing, social distancing and age specific quarantine for COVID-19 : Case studies in Iligan City and Cagayan de Oro City, Philippines
- 2020
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In: 9th Jagna International Workshop Stochastic Analysis – Mathematical Methods and Real-World Models, 8–18 January 2020, Bohol, Philippines. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 9780735440166
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The world today grapples with the health crisis caused by the novel COVID-19. Unfortunately, the Philippines, which was spared from the previous epidemics like Ebola and SARS, is now facing this major obstacle. The local government units of the country responded by issuing guidelines to mitigate the spread of infection. Two neighboring cities in the Philippines, namely, Iligan and Cagayan de Oro have been the focus of this study. Simulations have been undertaken to investigate the prevalence of the disease and the health care systems capacity to accommodate critically ill patients over time. The effects of mitigating strategies like social distancing, age specific quarantine and testing were considered. The model used for the spread of COVID-19 is an individual-based SIR model. The results indicated that social distancing and age specific quarantine can effectively slow down the progression of the disease. Moreover, social distancing combined with an effective testing strategy can keep the epidemic subcritical.
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| 2. |
- Liguarda, Remilou, et al.
(author)
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Optimal control for a tuberculosis model with exogenous reinfection under the influence of stigma
- 2022
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In: Computational and Mathematical Biophysis. - : Walter de Gruyter. - 2544-7297. ; 10, s. 249-261
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Often described as the world's most deadly infectious disease, Tuberculosis remains a serious health threat in many parts of the world, especially in the developing countries. One of the social barriers hindering TB patients to seek and complete medical attention is stigmatization. In this study, we incorporated stigmatization on a model published by Feng et al. last 2000. We obtained the basic reproduction number and showed conditions where multiple endemic equilibrium will exist depending on a reinfection threshold. The model predicted a significant increase in the basic reproduction number as the level of stigmatization increases. We used optimal control theory to investigate the effect of controls to combat stigmatization and compare these controls with the usual controls such as improving treatment and minimizing reinfection. Simulations show that although stigmatization controls are helpful, they are not enough to successfully control the disease. A combination of all the controls will be ideal and some optimal rates of doing it over time are given, depending on the perceived cost of implementation.
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