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- Camps-Valls, Gustau, et al.
(author)
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Discovering causal relations and equations from data
- 2023
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In: Physics reports. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-1573 .- 1873-6270. ; 1044, s. 1-68
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Physics is a field of science that has traditionally used the scientific method to answer questions about why natural phenomena occur and to make testable models that explain the phenomena. Discovering equations, laws, and principles that are invariant, robust, and causal has been fundamental in physical sciences throughout the centuries. Discoveries emerge from observing the world and, when possible, performing interventions on the system under study. With the advent of big data and data-driven methods, the fields of causal and equation discovery have developed and accelerated progress in computer science, physics, statistics, philosophy, and many applied fields. This paper reviews the concepts, methods, and relevant works on causal and equation discovery in the broad field of physics and outlines the most important challenges and promising future lines of research. We also provide a taxonomy for data-driven causal and equation discovery, point out connections, and showcase comprehensive case studies in Earth and climate sciences, fluid dynamics and mechanics, and the neurosciences. This review demonstrates that discovering fundamental laws and causal relations by observing natural phenomena is revolutionised with the efficient exploitation of observational data and simulations, modern machine learning algorithms and the combination with domain knowledge. Exciting times are ahead with many challenges and opportunities to improve our understanding of complex systems.
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| 2. |
- Jung, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO 2 sink changes to temperature
- 2017
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 541:7638, s. 516-520
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.
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| 3. |
- Mahecha, Miguel D., et al.
(author)
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Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics
- 2020
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 11:1, s. 201-234
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding Earth system dynamics in light of ongoing human intervention and dependency remains a major scientific challenge. The unprecedented availability of data streams describing different facets of the Earth now offers fundamentally new avenues to address this quest. However, several practical hurdles, especially the lack of data interoperability, limit the joint potential of these data streams. Today, many initiatives within and beyond the Earth system sciences are exploring new approaches to overcome these hurdles and meet the growing interdisciplinary need for data-intensive research; using data cubes is one promising avenue. Here, we introduce the concept of Earth system data cubes and how to operate on them in a formal way. The idea is that treating multiple data dimensions, such as spatial, temporal, variable, frequency, and other grids alike, allows effective application of user-defined functions to co-interpret Earth observations and/or model- data integration. An implementation of this concept combines analysis-ready data cubes with a suitable analytic interface. In three case studies, we demonstrate how the concept and its implementation facilitate the execution of complex workflows for research across multiple variables, and spatial and temporal scales: (1) summary statistics for ecosystem and climate dynamics; (2) intrinsic dimensionality analysis on multiple timescales; and (3) model-data integration. We discuss the emerging perspectives for investigating global interacting and coupled phenomena in observed or simulated data. In particular, we see many emerging perspectives of this approach for interpreting large-scale model ensembles. The latest developments in machine learning, causal inference, and model-data integration can be seamlessly implemented in the proposed framework, supporting rapid progress in data-intensive research across disciplinary boundaries.
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