| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Callaghan, Ciarán, et al.
(author)
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Cellulose Acetate Microbeads for Controlled Delivery of Essential Micronutrients
- 2023
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In: ACS Sustainable Chemistry and Engineering. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2168-0485. ; 11:12, s. 4749-4758
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The controlled delivery of micronutrients to soil and plants is essential to increase agricultural yields. However, this is today achieved using fossil fuel-derived plastic carriers, posing environmental risks and contributing to global carbon emissions. In this work, a novel and efficient way to prepare biodegradable zinc-impregnated cellulose acetate beads for use as controlled release fertilizers is presented. Cellulose acetate solutions in DMSO were dropped into aqueous antisolvent solutions of different zinc salts. The droplets underwent phase inversion, forming solid cellulose acetate beads containing zinc, as a function of zinc salt type and concentration. Even higher values of zinc uptake (up to 15.5%) were obtained when zinc acetate was added to the cellulose acetate-DMSO solution, prior to dropping in aqueous zinc salt antisolvent solutions. The release profile in water of the beads prepared using the different solvents was linked to the properties of the counter-ions via the Hofmeister series. Studies in soil showed the potential for longer release times, up to 130 days for zinc sulfate beads. These results, together with the efficient bead production method, demonstrate the potential of zinc-impregnated cellulose acetate beads to replace the plastic-based controlled delivery products used today, contributing to the reduction of carbon emissions and potential environmental impacts due to the uptake of plastic in plants and animals.
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| 4. |
- Marto, João Pedro, et al.
(author)
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Safety and Outcome of Revascularization Treatment in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and COVID-19: The Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry.
- 2023
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In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- COVID-19-related inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and coagulopathy may increase the bleeding risk and lower the efficacy of revascularization treatments in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We aimed to evaluate the safety and outcomes of revascularization treatments in patients with AIS and COVID-19.This was a retrospective multicenter cohort study of consecutive patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular treatment (EVT) between March 2020 and June 2021 tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. With a doubly robust model combining propensity score weighting and multivariate regression, we studied the association of COVID-19 with intracranial bleeding complications and clinical outcomes. Subgroup analyses were performed according to treatment groups (IVT-only and EVT).Of a total of 15,128 included patients from 105 centers, 853 (5.6%) were diagnosed with COVID-19; of those, 5,848 (38.7%) patients received IVT-only and 9,280 (61.3%) EVT (with or without IVT). Patients with COVID-19 had a higher rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) (adjusted OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16-2.01), symptomatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SSAH) (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.20-2.69), SICH and/or SSAH combined (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.23-1.99), 24-hour mortality (OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.58-3.86), and 3-month mortality (OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.52-2.33). Patients with COVID-19 also had an unfavorable shift in the distribution of the modified Rankin score at 3 months (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.26-1.60).Patients with AIS and COVID-19 showed higher rates of intracranial bleeding complications and worse clinical outcomes after revascularization treatments than contemporaneous non-COVID-19 patients receiving treatment. Current available data do not allow direct conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of revascularization treatments in patients with COVID-19 or to establish different treatment recommendations in this subgroup of patients with ischemic stroke. Our findings can be taken into consideration for treatment decisions, patient monitoring, and establishing prognosis.The study was registered under ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04895462.
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| 5. |
- Proletov, Ian, et al.
(author)
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Primary and secondary glomerulonephritides 1.
- 2014
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In: Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2385. ; 29 Suppl 3:May, s. 186-200
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 6. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 7. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 8. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 9. |
- Bettencourt-Silva, Rita, et al.
(author)
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Diabetes-related symptoms, acute complications and management of diabetes mellitus of patients who are receiving palliative care : a protocol for a systematic review
- 2019
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In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 9:6
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction: Worldwide, an estimated 40 million people are in need of palliative care each year, but only 14% receive it. The incidence of diabetes mellitus (DM) in patients receiving palliative care is higher than in the general population. This association is intended to grow as a result of the rising burden of DM worldwide, ageing populations and the improved overall survival time of several diseases over the last few decades. Recommendations for DM management in the context of palliative care are mainly based on expert opinion as there is a lack of suitable evidence base and randomised clinical trials in palliative care are scarce. The aim of our systematic review is to identify the best DM management practices in order to reduce important DM-related symptoms and acute complications in patients receiving palliative care.Methods and analysis: The authors will study the DM treatment and management literature, surveying the different approaches employed to treat adult palliative patients. Core health bibliographic databases will be searched from January 1990 to May 2019. Data sources will include Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, Web of Sciences, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Scopus, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and grey literature. Details regarding diet, oral and injectable glucose-lowering medicines, insulin regimens and blood glucose monitoring strategies will he evaluated. We defined the primary outcomes to compare between DM management approaches as the presence of symptoms (polyuria, polydipsia and polyphagia) and acute complications of DM (hypoglycaemia, hyperglycaemic hyperosmolar state and diabetic ketoacidosis), and secondary outcomes as hospital admissions and deaths due to DM-related complications, health-related quality of life and glycaemic control.Ethics and dissemination: The systematic review methodology does not require ethics approval due to the nature of the study design. The results of the systematic review will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and will he publicly available.PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018115772.
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| 10. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(author)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
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In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 13. |
- Manni, Giovanni Li, et al.
(author)
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The OpenMolcas Web : A Community-Driven Approach to Advancing Computational Chemistry
- 2023
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In: Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1549-9618 .- 1549-9626. ; 19:20, s. 6933-6991
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The developments of the open-source OpenMolcas chemistry software environment since spring 2020 are described, with a focus on novel functionalities accessible in the stable branch of the package or via interfaces with other packages. These developments span a wide range of topics in computational chemistry and are presented in thematic sections: electronic structure theory, electronic spectroscopy simulations, analytic gradients and molecular structure optimizations, ab initio molecular dynamics, and other new features. This report offers an overview of the chemical phenomena and processes OpenMolcas can address, while showing that OpenMolcas is an attractive platform for state-of-the-art atomistic computer simulations.
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| 14. |
- Martel-Duguech, Luciana Maria, et al.
(author)
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ESE audit on management of Adult Growth Hormone Deficiency in clinical practice.
- 2021
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In: European journal of endocrinology. - 1479-683X. ; 184:2, s. 323-334
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Guidelines recommend adults with pituitary disease in whom GH therapy is contemplated, to be tested for GH deficiency (AGHD); however, clinical practice is not uniform.1) To record current practice of AGHD management throughout Europe and benchmark it against guidelines; 2) To evaluate educational status of healthcare professionals about AGHD.On-line survey in endocrine centres throughout Europe.Endocrinologists voluntarily completed an electronic questionnaire regarding AGHD patients diagnosed or treated in 2017-2018.Twenty-eight centres from 17 European countries participated, including 2139 AGHD patients, 28% of childhood-onset GHD. Aetiology was most frequently non-functioning pituitary adenoma (26%), craniopharyngioma (13%) and genetic/congenital mid-line malformations (13%). Diagnosis of GHD was confirmed by a stimulation test in 52% (GHRH+arginine, 45%; insulin-tolerance, 42%, glucagon, 6%; GHRH alone and clonidine tests, 7%); in the remaining, ≥3 pituitary deficiencies and low serum IGF-I were diagnostic. Initial GH dose was lower in older patients, but only women <26 years were prescribed a higher dose than men; dose titration was based on normal serum IGF-I, tolerance and side-effects. In one country, AGHD treatment was not approved. Full public reimbursement was not available in four countries and only in childhood-onset GHD in another. AGHD awareness was low among non-endocrine professionals and healthcare administrators. Postgraduate AGHD curriculum training deserves being improved.Despite guideline recommendations, GH replacement in AGHD is still not available or reimbursed in all European countries. Knowledge among professionals and health administrators needs improvement to optimize care of adults with GHD.
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| 15. |
- Munoz-Gama, Jorge, et al.
(author)
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Process mining for healthcare : Characteristics and challenges
- 2022
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In: Journal of Biomedical Informatics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-0464 .- 1532-0480. ; 127
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Process mining techniques can be used to analyse business processes using the data logged during their execution. These techniques are leveraged in a wide range of domains, including healthcare, where it focuses mainly on the analysis of diagnostic, treatment, and organisational processes. Despite the huge amount of data generated in hospitals by staff and machinery involved in healthcare processes, there is no evidence of a systematic uptake of process mining beyond targeted case studies in a research context. When developing and using process mining in healthcare, distinguishing characteristics of healthcare processes such as their variability and patient-centred focus require targeted attention. Against this background, the Process-Oriented Data Science in Healthcare Alliance has been established to propagate the research and application of techniques targeting the data-driven improvement of healthcare processes. This paper, an initiative of the alliance, presents the distinguishing characteristics of the healthcare domain that need to be considered to successfully use process mining, as well as open challenges that need to be addressed by the community in the future.
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| 16. |
- Odelli, Davide, et al.
(author)
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Interaction between Fish Skin Gelatin and Pea Protein at Air-Water Interface after Ultrasound Treatment
- 2022
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In: Foods. - : MDPI AG. - 2304-8158. ; 11:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The interaction between fish skin gelatin (FG) and pea protein isolate (PPI) was investigated at the air-water interface (A-W) before and after a high intensity (275 W, 5 min) ultrasound treatment (US). We analyzed the properties of the single protein suspensions as well as an equal ratio of FG:PPI (MIX), in terms of ζ-potential, particle size, molecular weight, bulk viscosity and interfacial tension. The foaming properties were then evaluated by visual analysis and by Turbiscan Tower. Confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) was employed to explore the role of the proteins on the microstructure of foams. The results showed that the ultrasound treatment slightly influenced physicochemical properties of the proteins, while in general, did not significantly affect their behavior both in bulk and at the air-water interface. In particular, PPI aggregate size was reduced (−48 nm) while their negative charges were increased (−1 mV) after the treatment. However, when the proteins were combined, higher molecular weight of aggregates, higher foam stability values (+14%) and lower interfacial tension (IFT) values (47.2 ± 0.2 mN/m) were obtained, leading us to assume that a weak interaction was developed between them.
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| 17. |
- Sarigiannidou, Krystalia, et al.
(author)
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Interfacial Properties of Pea Protein Hydrolysate: The Effect of Ionic Strength
- 2022
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In: Colloids and Interfaces. - : MDPI AG. - 2504-5377. ; 6:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The effect of a tryptic hydrolysis as well as the effect of ionic strength (0–0.4 M NaCl) was investigated on the oil/water interfacial properties of soluble pea protein hydrolysate (SPPH) at neutral pH and room temperature (20 ± 0.01 °C). SEC-MALS and SDS-Page analysis showed that tryptic hydrolysis created a lower molecular weight polypeptide mixture, whereas FTIR analysis and DSC thermograms demonstrated a more disordered and flexible structure. The bulk properties of SPPH were studied in terms of hydrodynamic diameter and turbidity, where higher particle size (+ ~13 nm) and turbidity were observed at 0.4 M NaCl. Regarding the interfacial properties, the surface activity of SPPH improved by increasing ionic strength, with maximum interfacial pressure (14.28 mN/m) at 0.4 M NaCl. Nevertheless, the addition of NaCl negatively affected the elasticity and strength of the interfacial film, where the sample without salt exhibited the highest dilatational and shear storage modulus in all the frequencies considered.
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| 18. |
- Solmi, Marco, et al.
(author)
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Risk factors for eating disorders : an umbrella review of published meta-analyses.
- 2021
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In: Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria. - : Associação Brasileira de Psiquiatria. - 1516-4446 .- 1809-452X. ; 43:3, s. 314-323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To grade the evidence about risk factors for eating disorders (anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and binge eating disorder) with an umbrella review approach.METHODS: This was a systematic review of observational studies on risk factors for eating disorders published in PubMed/PsycInfo/Embase until December 11th, 2019. We recalculated random-effect meta-analyses, heterogeneity, small-study effect, excess significance bias and 95% prediction intervals, grading significant evidence (p < 0.05) from convincing to weak according to established criteria. Quality was assessed with the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR-2) tool.RESULTS: Of 2,197 meta-analyses, nine were included, providing evidence on 50 risk factors, 29,272 subjects with eating disorders, and 1,679,385 controls. Although no association was supported by convincing evidence, highly suggestive evidence supported the association between childhood sexual abuse and bulimia nervosa (k = 29, 1,103 cases with eating disorders, 8,496 controls, OR, 2.73, 95%CI 1.96-3.79, p = 2.1 x 10-9, AMSTAR-2 moderate quality) and between appearance-related teasing victimization and any eating disorder (k = 10, 1,341 cases with eating disorders, 3,295 controls, OR 2.91, 95%CI 2.05-4.12, p = 1.8x10-9, AMSTAR-2 moderate quality). Suggestive, weak, or no evidence supported 11, 29, and 8 associations, respectively.CONCLUSIONS: The most credible evidence indicates that early traumatic and stressful events are risk factors for eating disorders. Larger collaborative prospective cohort studies are needed to identify risk factors for eating disorders, particularly anorexia nervosa.
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| 19. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(author)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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