| 1. |
- Blach, S., et al.
(author)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Razavi, H., et al.
(author)
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Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030: a modelling study
- 2017
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 2:5, s. 325-336
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3 238 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2 106 000-3 795 000) of a total population of 509 868 000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0.64% (95% UI 0.41-0.74). We estimated that 1 180 000 (95% UI 1 003 000-1 357 000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36.4%), 150 000 (12 000-180 000) were treated (4.6% of the total infected population or 12.7% of the diagnosed population), 133 000 (106 000-160 000) were cured (4.1%), and 57 900 (43 900-67 300) were newly infected (1.8%) in 2015. Additionally, 30 400 (26 600-42 500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150 000 patients in 2015 to 187 000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88 800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180 000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary.
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| 8. |
- Razavi-Shearer, Devin M., et al.
(author)
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Adjusted estimate of the prevalence of hepatitis delta virus in 25 countries and territories
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 80:2, s. 232-242
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background & Aims: Hepatitis delta virus (HDV) is a satellite RNA virus that requires the hepatitis B virus (HBV) for assembly and propagation. Individuals infected with HDV progress to advanced liver disease faster than HBV-monoinfected individuals. Recent studies have estimated the global prevalence of anti-HDV antibodies among the HBV-infected population to be 5-15%. This study aimed to better understand HDV prevalence at the population level in 25 countries/territories. Methods: We conducted a literature review to determine the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA in hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive individuals in 25 countries/territories. Virtual meetings were held with experts from each setting to discuss the findings and collect unpublished data. Data were weighted for patient segments and regional heterogeneity to estimate the prevalence in the HBV-infected population. The findings were then combined with The Polaris Observatory HBV data to estimate the anti-HDV and HDV RNA prevalence in each country/territory at the population level. Results: After adjusting for geographical distribution, disease stage and special populations, the anti-HDV prevalence among the HBsAg+ population changed from the literature estimate in 19 countries. The highest anti-HDV prevalence was 60.1% in Mongolia. Once adjusted for the size of the HBsAg+ population and HDV RNA positivity rate, China had the highest absolute number of HDV RNA+ cases. Conclusions: We found substantially lower HDV prevalence than previously reported, as prior meta-analyses primarily focused on studies conducted in groups/regions that have a higher probability of HBV infection: tertiary care centers, specific risk groups or geographical regions. There is large uncertainty in HDV prevalence estimates. The implementation of reflex testing would improve estimates, while also allowing earlier linkage to care for HDV RNA+ individuals. The logistical and economic burden of reflex testing on the health system would be limited, as only HBsAg+ cases would be screened.
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| 9. |
- Razavi, Homie A., et al.
(author)
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Hepatitis D double reflex testing of all hepatitis B carriers in low-HBV- and high-HBV/HDV-prevalence countries
- 2023
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In: JOURNAL OF HEPATOLOGY. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 79:2, s. 576-580
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hepatitis D virus (HDV) infection occurs as a coinfection with hepatitis B and increases the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma, decompensated cirrhosis, and mortality compared to hepatitis B virus (HBV) monoinfection. Reliable estimates of the prevalence of HDV infection and disease burden are essential to formulate strategies to find coinfected individuals more effectively and efficiently. The global prevalence of HBV infections was estimated to be 262,240,000 in 2021. Only 1,994,000 of the HBV in-fections were newly diagnosed in 2021, with more than half of the new diagnoses made in China. Our initial estimates indicated a much lower prevalence of HDV antibody (anti-HDV) and HDV RNA positivity than previously reported in published studies. Ac-curate estimates of HDV prevalence are needed. The most effective method to generate estimates of the prevalence of anti-HDV and HDV RNA positivity and to find undiagnosed individuals at the national level is to implement double reflex testing. This re-quires anti-HDV testing of all hepatitis B surface antigen-positive individuals and HDV RNA testing of all anti-HDV-positive in-dividuals. This strategy is manageable for healthcare systems since the number of newly diagnosed HBV cases is low. At the global level, a comprehensive HDV screening strategy would require only 1,994,000 HDV antibody tests and less than 89,000 HDV PCR tests. Double reflex testing is the preferred strategy in countries with a low prevalence of HBV and those with a high prevalence of both HBV and HDV. For example, in the European Union and North America only 35,000 and 22,000 cases, respectively, will require anti-HDV testing annually.
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- Donati, B., et al.
(author)
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MBOAT7 rs641738 variant and hepatocellular carcinoma in non-cirrhotic individuals
- 2017
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 7:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents an emerging cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in non-cirrhotic individuals. The rs641738 C > T MBOAT7/TMC4 variant predisposes to progressive NAFLD, but the impact on hepatic carcinogenesis is unknown. In Italian NAFLD patients, the rs641738 T allele was associated with NAFLD-HCC (OR 1.65, 1.08-2.55; n = 765), particularly in those without advanced fibrosis (p < 0.001). The risk T allele was linked to 3'-UTR variation in MBOAT7 and to reduced MBOAT7 expression in patients without severe fibrosis. The number of PNPLA3, TM6SF2, and MBOAT7 risk variants was associated with NAFLD-HCC independently of clinical factors (p < 0.001), but did not significantly improve their predictive accuracy. When combining data from an independent UK NAFLD cohort, in the overall cohort of non-cirrhotic patients (n = 913, 41 with HCC) the T allele remained associated with HCC (OR 2.10, 1.33-3.31). Finally, in a combined cohort of non-cirrhotic patients with chronic hepatitis C or alcoholic liver disease (n = 1121), the T allele was independently associated with HCC risk (OR 1.93, 1.07-3.58). In conclusion, the MBOAT7 rs641738 T allele is associated with reduced MBOAT7 expression and may predispose to HCC in patients without cirrhosis, suggesting it should be evaluated in future prospective studies aimed at stratifying NAFLD-HCC risk.
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| 13. |
- Dongiovanni, P, et al.
(author)
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Causal relationship of hepatic fat with liver damage and insulin resistance in nonalcoholic fatty liver.
- 2018
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In: Journal of internal medicine. - : Wiley. - 1365-2796 .- 1365-2796 .- 0954-6820. ; 283:4, s. 356-370
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is epidemiologically associated with hepatic and metabolic disorders. The aim of this study was to examine whether hepatic fat accumulation has a causal role in determining liver damage and insulin resistance.We performed a Mendelian randomization analysis using risk alleles in PNPLA3, TM6SF2, GCKR and MBOAT7, and a polygenic risk score for hepatic fat, as instruments. We evaluated complementary cohorts of at-risk individuals and individuals from the general population: 1515 from the liver biopsy cohort (LBC), 3329 from the Swedish Obese Subjects Study (SOS) and 4570 from the population-based Dallas Heart Study (DHS).Hepatic fat was epidemiologically associated with liver damage, insulin resistance, dyslipidemia and hypertension. The impact of genetic variants on liver damage was proportional to their effect on hepatic fat accumulation. Genetically determined hepatic fat was associated with aminotransferases, and with inflammation, ballooning and fibrosis in the LBC. Furthermore, in the LBC, the causal association between hepatic fat and fibrosis was independent of disease activity, suggesting that a causal effect of long-term liver fat accumulation on liver disease is independent of inflammation. Genetically determined hepatic steatosis was associated with insulin resistance in the LBC and SOS. However, this association was dependent on liver damage severity. Genetically determined hepatic steatosis was associated with liver fibrosis/cirrhosis and with a small increase in risk of type 2 diabetes in publicly available databases.These data suggest that long-term hepatic fat accumulation plays a causal role in the development of chronic liver disease.
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| 14. |
- Dongiovanni, P., et al.
(author)
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Transmembrane 6 Superfamily Member 2 Gene Variant Disentangles Nonalcoholic Steatohepatitis From Cardiovascular Disease
- 2015
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In: Hepatology. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0270-9139 .- 1527-3350. ; 61:2, s. 506-514
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Excess hepatic storage of triglycerides is considered a benign condition, but nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) may progress to fibrosis and promote atherosclerosis. Carriers of the TM6SF2 E167K variant have fatty liver as a result of reduced secretion of very-low-density lipoproteins (VLDLs). As a result, they have lower circulating lipids and reduced risk of myocardial infarction. In this study, we aimed to assess whether TM6SF2 E167K affects liver damage and cardiovascular outcomes in subjects at risk of NASH. Liver damage was evaluated in 1,201 patients who underwent liver biopsy for suspected NASH; 427 were evaluated for carotid atherosclerosis. Cardiovascular outcomes were assessed in 1,819 controls from the Swedish Obese Subjects (SOS) cohort. Presence of the inherited TM6SF2 E167K variant was determined by TaqMan assays. In the liver biopsy cohort, 188 subjects (13%) were carriers of the E167K variant. They had lower serum lipid levels than noncarriers (P<0.05), had more-severe steatosis, necroinflammation, ballooning, and fibrosis (P<0.05), and were more likely to have NASH (odds ratio [OR]: 1.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23-2.79) and advanced fibrosis (OR, 2.08; 95% CI: 1.20-3.55), after adjustment for age, sex, body mass index, fasting hyperglycemia, and the I148M PNPLA3 risk variant. However, E167K carriers had lower risk of developing carotid plaques (OR, 0.49; 95% CI: 0.25-0.94). In the SOS cohort, E167K carriers had higher alanine aminotransferase ALT and lower lipid levels (P<0.05), as well as a lower incidence of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.39-0.95). Conclusions: Carriers of the TM6SF2 E167K variant are more susceptible to progressive NASH, but are protected against cardiovascular disease. Our findings suggest that reduced ability to export VLDLs is deleterious for the liver. (Hepatology 2015;61:506-514)
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| 15. |
- Pelusi, S, et al.
(author)
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Prevalence and Risk Factors of Significant Fibrosis in Patients With Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Without Steatohepatitis.
- 2019
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In: Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association. - : Elsevier BV. - 1542-7714. ; 17:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a risk factor for the development of fibrosis. However, fibrosis has been observed in livers of patients without NASH. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of fibrosis in patients without NASH and risk factors for fibrosis.We analyzed data from 1738 subjects (44.9% with severe obesity) in a cross-sectional liver biopsy cohort enrolled at referral centers in Italy and Finland. Biopsy specimens were analyzed histologically by a blinded pathologist at each center, and a diagnosis of NASH was made based on steatosis (≥5% of hepatocytes), hepatocellular ballooning, and lobular inflammation. We also collected data on demographic features, metabolic comorbidities, and genetic factors, and performed logistic regression analyses. Findings were validated using data from 118 consecutive patients with NAFLD who underwent sequential liver biopsies at tertiary referral centers in Italy.In the cross-sectional cohort, 132 of 389 patients (33.9%) with significant fibrosis had no NASH and 39 patients (10.0%) had no inflammation. The dissociation between NASH and fibrosis was significantly greater in patients with severe obesity (P < .005). Steatosis, ballooning, and lobular inflammation each were associated independently with significant fibrosis (P < .001); age, adiposity, fasting hyperglycemia, and the PNPLA3 I148M variant also were associated with fibrosis. In patients without, but not in those with, NASH, significant fibrosis was associated with steatosis grade and the PNPLA3 I148M variant. In patients without NASH, age, fasting hyperglycemia, ballooning, and inflammation were associated with fibrosis. In the validation cohort, 16 of 47 patients (34.0%) with clinically significant fibrosis did not have NASH at baseline. In patients with fibrosis without baseline NASH, worsening of fibrosis (based on later biopsies) was associated with fasting hyperglycemia and more severe steatosis (P= .016).In an analysis of biopsy specimens collected from patients with NAFLD at a single time point, one third of patients with significant fibrosis did not have NASH. We validated this finding in a separate cohort. In patients without NASH, fasting hyperglycemia, severe steatosis, mild inflammation or ballooning, and the PNPLA3 I148M variant identified those at risk of significant fibrosis.
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| 17. |
- Pennisi, G., et al.
(author)
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A Genetic and Metabolic Staging System for Predicting the Outcome of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
- 2022
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In: Hepatology Communications. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 2471-254X. ; 6:5, s. 1032-1044
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of liver-related events (LREs). Here, we have assessed the ability of a composite score based on clinical features, metabolic comorbidities, and genetic variants to predict LREs. A total of 546 consecutive patients with NAFLD were recruited and stratified according to the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index. LREs were defined as occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma or hepatic decompensation. Cox regression multivariate analysis was used to identify baseline variables associated with LREs. The UK Biobank was used as the validation cohort, and severe liver disease (incidence of cirrhosis, decompensated liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and/or liver transplantation) was used as the outcome. LREs were experienced by 58 patients, only one of whom was in the cohort of patients with a FIB-4 score < 1.3. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of 229 patients with a FIB-4 score >= 1.3 highlighted clinical variables independently associated with the development of LREs, including older age, low platelet count, low albumin, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, certain genetic factors, and interactions between genetic factors and sex or diabetes. The area under the curve (AUC) for the model was 0.87 at 1, 3, and 5 years. Our novel Genetic and Metabolic Staging (GEMS) scoring system was derived from the Cox model linear predictor, ranked from 0 to 10, and categorized into five classes (0-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, and 8-10). The risk of LREs increased from 4% in patients in the best class (GEMS score 0-5) to 91% in the worst (GEMS score 8-10). GEMS score was associated with incident severe liver disease in the study population (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 1.48-1.65; P < 0.001) as well as in the UK Biobank cohort where AUCs for prediction of severe liver disease at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.70, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively. Conclusion: The novel GEMS scoring system has an adequate ability to predict the outcome of patients with NAFLD.
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