| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Justice, Anne E., et al.
(author)
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Protein-coding variants implicate novel genes related to lipid homeostasis contributing to body-fat distribution
- 2019
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 51:3, s. 452-469
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Body-fat distribution is a risk factor for adverse cardiovascular health consequences. We analyzed the association of body-fat distribution, assessed by waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index, with 228,985 predicted coding and splice site variants available on exome arrays in up to 344,369 individuals from five major ancestries (discovery) and 132,177 European-ancestry individuals (validation). We identified 15 common (minor allele frequency, MAF >= 5%) and nine low-frequency or rare (MAF < 5%) coding novel variants. Pathway/gene set enrichment analyses identified lipid particle, adiponectin, abnormal white adipose tissue physiology and bone development and morphology as important contributors to fat distribution, while cross-trait associations highlight cardiometabolic traits. In functional follow-up analyses, specifically in Drosophila RNAi-knockdowns, we observed a significant increase in the total body triglyceride levels for two genes (DNAH10 and PLXND1). We implicate novel genes in fat distribution, stressing the importance of interrogating low-frequency and protein-coding variants.
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| 3. |
- Sung, Yun Ju, et al.
(author)
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A multi-ancestry genome-wide study incorporating gene-smoking interactions identifies multiple new loci for pulse pressure and mean arterial pressure
- 2019
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In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press. - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 28:15, s. 2615-2633
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure (BP), a leading cause of global morbidity and mortality, is influenced by both genetic and lifestyle factors. Cigarette smoking is one such lifestyle factor. Across five ancestries, we performed a genome-wide gene–smoking interaction study of mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) in 129 913 individuals in stage 1 and follow-up analysis in 480 178 additional individuals in stage 2. We report here 136 loci significantly associated with MAP and/or PP. Of these, 61 were previously published through main-effect analysis of BP traits, 37 were recently reported by us for systolic BP and/or diastolic BP through gene–smoking interaction analysis and 38 were newly identified (P < 5 × 10−8, false discovery rate < 0.05). We also identified nine new signals near known loci. Of the 136 loci, 8 showed significant interaction with smoking status. They include CSMD1 previously reported for insulin resistance and BP in the spontaneously hypertensive rats. Many of the 38 new loci show biologic plausibility for a role in BP regulation. SLC26A7 encodes a chloride/bicarbonate exchanger expressed in the renal outer medullary collecting duct. AVPR1A is widely expressed, including in vascular smooth muscle cells, kidney, myocardium and brain. FHAD1 is a long non-coding RNA overexpressed in heart failure. TMEM51 was associated with contractile function in cardiomyocytes. CASP9 plays a central role in cardiomyocyte apoptosis. Identified only in African ancestry were 30 novel loci. Our findings highlight the value of multi-ancestry investigations, particularly in studies of interaction with lifestyle factors, where genomic and lifestyle differences may contribute to novel findings.
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| 4. |
- Brunner, Fabian J., et al.
(author)
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Application of non-HDL cholesterol for population-based cardiovascular risk stratification : results from the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium
- 2019
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 394:10215, s. 2173-2183
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The relevance of blood lipid concentrations to long-term incidence of cardiovascular disease and the relevance of lipid-lowering therapy for cardiovascular disease outcomes is unclear. We investigated the cardiovascular disease risk associated with the full spectrum of bloodstream non-HDL cholesterol concentrations. We also created an easy-to-use tool to estimate the long-term probabilities for a cardiovascular disease event associated with non-HDL cholesterol and modelled its risk reduction by lipid-lowering treatment.Methods: In this risk-evaluation and risk-modelling study, we used Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium data from 19 countries across Europe, Australia, and North America. Individuals without prevalent cardiovascular disease at baseline and with robust available data on cardiovascular disease outcomes were included. The primary composite endpoint of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was defined as the occurrence of the coronary heart disease event or ischaemic stroke. Sex-specific multivariable analyses were computed using non-HDL cholesterol categories according to the European guideline thresholds, adjusted for age, sex, cohort, and classical modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. In a derivation and validation design, we created a tool to estimate the probabilities of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, dependent on age, sex, and risk factors, and the associated modelled risk reduction, assuming a 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol.Findings: Of the 524 444 individuals in the 44 cohorts in the Consortium database, we identified 398 846 individuals belonging to 38 cohorts (184 055 [48·7%] women; median age 51·0 years [IQR 40·7–59·7]). 199 415 individuals were included in the derivation cohort (91 786 [48·4%] women) and 199 431 (92 269 [49·1%] women) in the validation cohort. During a maximum follow-up of 43·6 years (median 13·5 years, IQR 7·0–20·1), 54 542 cardiovascular endpoints occurred. Incidence curve analyses showed progressively higher 30-year cardiovascular disease event-rates for increasing non-HDL cholesterol categories (from 7·7% for non-HDL cholesterol <2·6 mmol/L to 33·7% for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 12·8% to 43·6% in men; p<0·0001). Multivariable adjusted Cox models with non-HDL cholesterol lower than 2·6 mmol/L as reference showed an increase in the association between non-HDL cholesterol concentration and cardiovascular disease for both sexes (from hazard ratio 1·1, 95% CI 1·0–1·3 for non-HDL cholesterol 2·6 to <3·7 mmol/L to 1·9, 1·6–2·2 for ≥5·7 mmol/L in women and from 1·1, 1·0–1·3 to 2·3, 2·0–2·5 in men). The derived tool allowed the estimation of cardiovascular disease event probabilities specific for non-HDL cholesterol with high comparability between the derivation and validation cohorts as reflected by smooth calibration curves analyses and a root mean square error lower than 1% for the estimated probabilities of cardiovascular disease. A 50% reduction of non-HDL cholesterol concentrations was associated with reduced risk of a cardiovascular disease event by the age of 75 years, and this risk reduction was greater the earlier cholesterol concentrations were reduced.Interpretation: Non-HDL cholesterol concentrations in blood are strongly associated with long-term risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We provide a simple tool for individual long-term risk assessment and the potential benefit of early lipid-lowering intervention. These data could be useful for physician–patient communication about primary prevention strategies.
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| 5. |
- Ntalla, Ioanna, et al.
(author)
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Multi-ancestry GWAS of the electrocardiographic PR interval identifies 202 loci underlying cardiac conduction
- 2020
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The electrocardiographic PR interval reflects atrioventricular conduction, and is associated with conduction abnormalities, pacemaker implantation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiovascular mortality. Here we report a multi-ancestry (N=293,051) genome-wide association meta-analysis for the PR interval, discovering 202 loci of which 141 have not previously been reported. Variants at identified loci increase the percentage of heritability explained, from 33.5% to 62.6%. We observe enrichment for cardiac muscle developmental/contractile and cytoskeletal genes, highlighting key regulation processes for atrioventricular conduction. Additionally, 8 loci not previously reported harbor genes underlying inherited arrhythmic syndromes and/or cardiomyopathies suggesting a role for these genes in cardiovascular pathology in the general population. We show that polygenic predisposition to PR interval duration is an endophenotype for cardiovascular disease, including distal conduction disease, AF, and atrioventricular pre-excitation. These findings advance our understanding of the polygenic basis of cardiac conduction, and the genetic relationship between PR interval duration and cardiovascular disease. On the electrocardiogram, the PR interval reflects conduction from the atria to ventricles and also serves as risk indicator of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Here, the authors perform genome-wide meta-analyses for PR interval in multiple ancestries and identify 141 previously unreported genetic loci.
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| 6. |
- Roselli, Carolina, et al.
(author)
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Multi-ethnic genome-wide association study for atrial fibrillation
- 2018
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 50:9, s. 1225-1233
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects more than 33 million individuals worldwide(1) and has a complex heritability(2). We conducted the largest meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for AF to date, consisting of more than half a million individuals, including 65,446 with AF. In total, we identified 97 loci significantly associated with AF, including 67 that were novel in a combined-ancestry analysis, and 3 that were novel in a European-specific analysis. We sought to identify AF-associated genes at the GWAS loci by performing RNA-sequencing and expression quantitative trait locus analyses in 101 left atrial samples, the most relevant tissue for AF. We also performed transcriptome-wide analyses that identified 57 AF-associated genes, 42 of which overlap with GWAS loci. The identified loci implicate genes enriched within cardiac developmental, electrophysiological, contractile and structural pathways. These results extend our understanding of the biological pathways underlying AF and may facilitate the development of therapeutics for AF.
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| 7. |
- van de Vegte, Yordi, et al.
(author)
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Genetic insights into resting heart rate and its role in cardiovascular disease
- 2023
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 14:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The genetics and clinical consequences of resting heart rate (RHR) remain incompletely understood. Here, the authors discover new genetic variants associated with RHR and find that higher genetically predicted RHR decreases risk of atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke. Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.
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| 8. |
- Ellinor, Patrick T., et al.
(author)
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Meta-analysis identifies six new susceptibility loci for atrial fibrillation
- 2012
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 44:6, s. 88-670
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atrial fibrillation is a highly prevalent arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure and death(1). We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in individuals of European ancestry, including 6,707 with and 52,426 without atrial fibrillation. Six new atrial fibrillation susceptibility loci were identified and replicated in an additional sample of individuals of European ancestry, including 5,381 subjects with and 10,030 subjects without atrial fibrillation (P < 5 x 10(-8)). Four of the loci identified in Europeans were further replicated in silico in a GWAS of Japanese individuals, including 843 individuals with and 3,350 individuals without atrial fibrillation. The identified loci implicate candidate genes that encode transcription factors related to cardiopulmonary development, cardiac-expressed ion channels and cell signaling molecules.
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| 9. |
- Hageman, Steven H. J., et al.
(author)
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Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions
- 2024
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In: EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY. - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals.Methods and results The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region.Conclusion By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines. The study introduces LIFE-CVD2, a new tool that helps predict the risk of heart disease over a person's lifetime, and highlights how where you live in Europe can affect this risk. Using health information from over 687 000 people, LIFE-CVD2 looks at things like blood pressure and whether someone smokes to figure out their chance of having heart problems later in life. Health information from another 1.6 million people in seven different European countries was used to show that it did a good job of predicting who might develop heart disease.Knowing your heart disease risk over your whole life helps doctors give you the best advice to keep your heart healthy. Let us say there is a 50-year-old woman who smokes and has a bit high blood pressure. Right now, she might not look like she is in danger. But with the LIFE-CVD2 tool, doctors can show her how making changes today, like lowering her blood pressure or stopping smoking, could mean many more years without heart problems. These healthy changes can make a big difference over many years.
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| 10. |
- van Setten, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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PR interval genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies 50 loci associated with atrial and atrioventricular electrical activity
- 2018
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In: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Electrocardiographic PR interval measures atrio-ventricular depolarization and conduction, and abnormal PR interval is a risk factor for atrial fibrillation and heart block. Our genomewide association study of over 92,000 European-descent individuals identifies 44 PR interval loci (34 novel). Examination of these loci reveals known and previously not-yet-reported biological processes involved in cardiac atrial electrical activity. Genes in these loci are overrepresented in cardiac disease processes including heart block and atrial fibrillation. Variants in over half of the 44 loci were associated with atrial or blood transcript expression levels, or were in high linkage disequilibrium with missense variants. Six additional loci were identified either by meta-analysis of similar to 105,000 African and European-descent individuals and/or by pleiotropic analyses combining PR interval with heart rate, QRS interval, and atrial fibrillation. These findings implicate developmental pathways, and identify transcription factors, ionchannel genes, and cell-junction/cell-signaling proteins in atrio-ventricular conduction, identifying potential targets for drug development.
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| 11. |
- Dehghan, Abbas, et al.
(author)
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Genome-Wide Association Study for Incident Myocardial Infarction and Coronary Heart Disease in Prospective Cohort Studies : The CHARGE Consortium
- 2016
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Data are limited on genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for incident coronary heart disease (CHD). Moreover, it is not known whether genetic variants identified to date also associate with risk of CHD in a prospective setting. Methods We performed a two-stage GWAS analysis of incident myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD in a total of 64,297 individuals (including 3898 MI cases, 5465 CHD cases). SNPs that passed an arbitrary threshold of 5x10(-6) in Stage I were taken to Stage II for further discovery. Furthermore, in an analysis of prognosis, we studied whether known SNPs from former GWAS were associated with total mortality in individuals who experienced MI during follow-up. Results In Stage I 15 loci passed the threshold of 5x10(-6); 8 loci for MI and 8 loci for CHD, for which one locus overlapped and none were reported in previous GWAS meta-analyses. We took 60 SNPs representing these 15 loci to Stage II of discovery. Four SNPs near QKI showed nominally significant association with MI (p-value<8.8x10(-3)) and three exceeded the genome-wide significance threshold when Stage I and Stage II results were combined (top SNP rs6941513: p = 6.2x10(-9)). Despite excellent power, the 9p21 locus SNP (rs1333049) was only modestly associated with MI (HR = 1.09, p-value = 0.02) and marginally with CHD (HR = 1.06, p-value = 0.08). Among an inception cohort of those who experienced MI during follow-up, the risk allele of rs1333049 was associated with a decreased risk of subsequent mortality (HR = 0.90, p-value = 3.2x10(-3)). Conclusions QKI represents a novel locus that may serve as a predictor of incident CHD in prospective studies. The association of the 9p21 locus both with increased risk of first myocardial infarction and longer survival after MI highlights the importance of study design in investigating genetic determinants of complex disorders.
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| 12. |
- Newton-Cheh, Christopher, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study identifies eight loci associated with blood pressure
- 2009
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 41:6, s. 666-676
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Elevated blood pressure is a common, heritable cause of cardiovascular disease worldwide. To date, identification of common genetic variants influencing blood pressure has proven challenging. We tested 2.5 million genotyped and imputed SNPs for association with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in 34,433 subjects of European ancestry from the Global BPgen consortium and followed up findings with direct genotyping (N <= 71,225 European ancestry, N <= 12,889 Indian Asian ancestry) and in silico comparison (CHARGE consortium, N 29,136). We identified association between systolic or diastolic blood pressure and common variants in eight regions near the CYP17A1 (P = 7 x 10(-24)), CYP1A2 (P = 1 x 10(-23)), FGF5 (P = 1 x 10(-21)), SH2B3 (P = 3 x 10(-18)), MTHFR (P = 2 x 10(-13)), c10orf107 (P = 1 x 10(-9)), ZNF652 (P = 5 x 10(-9)) and PLCD3 (P = 1 x 10(-8)) genes. All variants associated with continuous blood pressure were associated with dichotomous hypertension. These associations between common variants and blood pressure and hypertension offer mechanistic insights into the regulation of blood pressure and may point to novel targets for interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease.
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| 13. |
- Schmidt, Amand F., et al.
(author)
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PCSK9 genetic variants and risk of type 2 diabetes : a mendelian randomisation study
- 2017
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In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 2213-8587 .- 2213-8595. ; 5:2, s. 97-105
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Statin treatment and variants in the gene encoding HMG-CoA reductase are associated with reductions in both the concentration of LDL cholesterol and the risk of coronary heart disease, but also with modest hyperglycaemia, increased bodyweight, and modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes, which in no way off sets their substantial benefi ts. We sought to investigate the associations of LDL cholesterol-lowering PCSK9 variants with type 2 diabetes and related biomarkers to gauge the likely eff ects of PCSK9 inhibitors on diabetes risk. Methods In this mendelian randomisation study, we used data from cohort studies, randomised controlled trials, case control studies, and genetic consortia to estimate associations of PCSK9 genetic variants with LDL cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, HbA 1c, fasting insulin, bodyweight, waist-to-hip ratio, BMI, and risk of type 2 diabetes, using a standardised analysis plan, meta-analyses, and weighted gene-centric scores. Findings Data were available for more than 550 000 individuals and 51 623 cases of type 2 diabetes. Combined analyses of four independent PCSK9 variants (rs11583680, rs11591147, rs2479409, and rs11206510) scaled to 1 mmol/L lower LDL cholesterol showed associations with increased fasting glucose (0.09 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.02 to 0.15), bodyweight (1.03 kg, 0.24 to 1.82), waist-to-hip ratio (0.006, 0.003 to 0.010), and an odds ratio for type diabetes of 1.29 (1.11 to 1.50). Based on the collected data, we did not identify associations with HbA 1c (0.03%, -0.01 to 0.08), fasting insulin (0.00%, -0.06 to 0.07), and BMI (0.11 kg/m(2), -0.09 to 0.30). Interpretation PCSK9 variants associated with lower LDL cholesterol were also associated with circulating higher fasting glucose concentration, bodyweight, and waist-to-hip ratio, and an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In trials of PCSK9 inhibitor drugs, investigators should carefully assess these safety outcomes and quantify the risks and benefi ts of PCSK9 inhibitor treatment, as was previously done for statins.
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| 14. |
- Schmidt, Amand F., et al.
(author)
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Phenome-wide association analysis of LDL-cholesterol lowering genetic variants in PCSK9
- 2019
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In: BMC Cardiovascular Disorders. - : BMC. - 1471-2261 .- 1471-2261. ; 19:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. Methods: Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. Results: The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer's disease - outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. Conclusions: Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.
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| 17. |
- Robinne, Francois-Nicolas, et al.
(author)
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Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply
- 2021
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In: Hydrological Processes. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 35:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019-2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation ("200 mm day-1 in several location") that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.
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| 18. |
- Maron, David J., et al.
(author)
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Initial Invasive or Conservative Strategy for Stable Coronary Disease
- 2020
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 382:15, s. 1395-1407
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, whether clinical outcomes are better in those who receive an invasive intervention plus medical therapy than in those who receive medical therapy alone is uncertain.Methods: We randomly assigned 5179 patients with moderate or severe ischemia to an initial invasive strategy (angiography and revascularization when feasible) and medical therapy or to an initial conservative strategy of medical therapy alone and angiography if medical therapy failed. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. A key secondary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes or myocardial infarction.Results: Over a median of 3.2 years, 318 primary outcome events occurred in the invasive-strategy group and 352 occurred in the conservative-strategy group. At 6 months, the cumulative event rate was 5.3% in the invasive-strategy group and 3.4% in the conservative-strategy group (difference, 1.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8 to 3.0); at 5 years, the cumulative event rate was 16.4% and 18.2%, respectively (difference, -1.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to 1.0). Results were similar with respect to the key secondary outcome. The incidence of the primary outcome was sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction; a secondary analysis yielded more procedural myocardial infarctions of uncertain clinical importance. There were 145 deaths in the invasive-strategy group and 144 deaths in the conservative-strategy group (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.32).Conclusions: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, we did not find evidence that an initial invasive strategy, as compared with an initial conservative strategy, reduced the risk of ischemic cardiovascular events or death from any cause over a median of 3.2 years. The trial findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction that was used. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; ISCHEMIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, .) Patients with stable coronary disease were randomly assigned to an initial invasive strategy with angiography and revascularization if appropriate or to medical therapy alone. At 3.2 years, there was no significant difference between the groups with respect to the estimated rate of ischemic events. The findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction.
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| 19. |
- Meghini, C., et al.
(author)
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ARIADNE: A Research Infrastructure for Archaeology
- 2017
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In: ACM Journal on Computing and Cultural Heritage. - : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 1556-4673 .- 1556-4711. ; 10:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Research e-infrastructures, digital archives, and data services have become important pillars of scientific enterprise that in recent decades have become ever more collaborative, distributed, and data intensive. The archaeological research community has been an early adopter of digital tools for data acquisition, organization, analysis, and presentation of research results of individual projects. However, the provision of e-infrastructure and services for data sharing, discovery, access, and (re) use have lagged behind. This situation is being addressed by ARIADNE, the Advanced Research Infrastructure for Archaeological Dataset Networking in Europe. This EU-funded network has developed an e-infrastructure that enables data providers to register and provide access to their resources (datasets, collections) through the ARIADNE data portal, facilitating discovery, access, and other services across the integrated resources. This article describes the current landscape of data repositories and services for archaeologists in Europe, and the issues that make interoperability between them difficult to realize. The results of the ARIADNE surveys on users' expectations and requirements are also presented. The main section of the article describes the architecture of the e-infrastructure, core services (data registration, discovery, and access), and various other extant or experimental services. The ongoing evaluation of the data integration and services is also discussed. Finally, the article summarizes lessons learned and outlines the prospects for the wider engagement of the archaeological research community in the sharing of data through ARIADNE.
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| 20. |
- van der Laan, Sander W., et al.
(author)
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Cystatin C and Cardiovascular Disease : A Mendelian Randomization Study
- 2016
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In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 68:9, s. 934-945
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND Epidemiological studies show that high circulating cystatin C is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), independent of creatinine-based renal function measurements. It is unclear whether this relationship is causal, arises from residual confounding, and/or is a consequence of reverse causation. OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to use Mendelian randomization to investigate whether cystatin C is causally related to CVD in the general population. METHODS We incorporated participant data from 16 prospective cohorts (n = 76,481) with 37,126 measures of cystatin C and added genetic data from 43 studies (n = 252,216) with 63,292 CVD events. We used the common variant rs911119 in CST3 as an instrumental variable to investigate the causal role of cystatin C in CVD, including coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, and heart failure. RESULTS Cystatin C concentrations were associated with CVD risk after adjusting for age, sex, and traditional risk factors (relative risk: 1.82 per doubling of cystatin C; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.56 to 2.13; p = 2.12 x 10(-14)). The minor allele of rs911119 was associated with decreased serum cystatin C (6.13% per allele; 95% CI: 5.75 to 6.50; p = 5.95 x 10(-211)), explaining 2.8% of the observed variation in cystatin C. Mendelian randomization analysis did not provide evidence fora causal role of cystatin C, with a causal relative risk for CVD of 1.00 per doubling cystatin C (95% CI: 0.82 to 1.22; p = 0,994), which was statistically different from the observational estimate (p = 1.6 x 10(-5)). A causal effect of cystatin C was not detected for any individual component of CVD. CONCLUSIONS Mendelian randomization analyses did not support a causal role of cystatin C in the etiology of CVD. As such, therapeutics targeted at lowering circulating cystatin C are unlikely to be effective in preventing CVD.
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| 21. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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A Modeling Perspective on Interpreting Rates of Change in Context
- 2013
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In: Mathematical Thinking and Learning. - : Routledge. - 1098-6065 .- 1532-7833. ; 15:4, s. 314-336
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Functions provide powerful tools for describing change, but research has shown that students find difficulty in using functions to create and interpret models of changing phenomena. In this study, we drew on a models and modeling perspective to design an instructional approach to develop students abilities to describe and interpret rates of change in the context of exponential decay. In this article, we elaborate the characteristics of the model development sequence and we examine how students interpreted and described non-constant rates of change in context. We provide evidence for how a focus on the context made visible students reasoning about rates of change, including difficulties related to the use of language when describing changes in the negative direction. We argue that context and the use of language, forefronted in a modeling approach, should play an important role in supporting the development of students reasoning about changing phenomena.
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| 22. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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At the core of modelling: Connecting, coordinating and integrating models
- 2015
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In: <em>Proceedings of the 9th Congress of European Research in Mathematics Education</em>. ; , s. 802-808
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This theoretical paper introduces the notions of connecting, coordinating and integrating models to analyse and reflect on how models are created and developed. We define, discuss and apply these constructs to some theoretical perspectives in the present modelling discourse. We draw on an example from a model application activity within a model development sequence to illustrate these constructs. Our hope is to spark a discussion that will enhance our understanding about the nature of mathematical modelling and the teaching and learning of, and through, modelling.
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| 23. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Interpreting average rate of change in context
- 2012
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In: Proceedings of the 34th annual meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. - : Western Michigan University. - 9780615697925 ; , s. 965-968
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper draws on a models and modeling perspective to investigate students’ abilities to describe and interpret non-constant average rates of change in the context of exponential decay. The results show that about half of the students could describe the behavior of the function and its rate of change, with more than half of those also referring to the problem context. Two themes in the students’ responses are discussed: describing the context as a way of describing the function, and difficulties related to the use of language in describing changing phenomena.
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| 24. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Moving beyond a single modelling activity
- 2015
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In: Mathematical modelling in educational research and practice. - asdf : Springer. - 9783319182711 - 9783319182728 ; , s. 293-303
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this theoretical chapter, we draw on a models and modelling perspective on teaching and learning to elaborate on the components of model development sequences using the lens of variation theory. We give empirical examples of how model exploration activities and model application activities can be described and understood from a variation theory perspective. The chapter concludes by presenting tentative principles for the design of such activities within a model development sequence.
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| 25. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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Moving beyond descriptive models: Research issues for design and implementation
- 2020
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In: AVANCES DE INVESTIGACION EN EDUCACION MATEMATICA. - : SOC ESPANOLA INVESTIGACION & EDUCACION MATEMATICA-SEIM. - 2254-4313. ; :17
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, we draw on a models and modeling perspective to describe the design of a sequence of tasks, known as a model development sequence, that has been used to research the teaching and learning of mathematics. A central research goal of a models and modeling perspective is the development of principles for the design of sequences of modeling tasks and for the teaching of such sequences. We extend our earlier research by elaborating how a model development sequence can be used to support students in developing models that are not only descriptive but also have explanatory power when connected to existing mathematical models. In so doing, we elaborate language issues about representations and context as well as the implementation strategies used by the teacher.
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| 26. |
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| 27. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Students’ emerging models of average rate of change in context
- 2013
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In: Proceedings of the 8th Congress of European Research in Mathematics Education (CERME 8).
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes a model application activity in the context of how light intensity varies depending on the distance from a point light source within a model development sequence focusing on developing students’ understanding of average rate of change. Students’ early models were found to be linearly decreasing functions and they did not distinguish between the light intensity and changes in light intensity. Most students were able to draw on several representations (most notably tables and graphs) to represent, describe and distinguish between the light intensity and changes in light intensity. Some students encountered difficulties when describing change when the rates were negative and understanding how the graphical representation of average rates of change depended on the interval width
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| 28. |
- Bergman Ärlebäck, Jonas, 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Students’ interpretations and reasoning about phenomena with negative rates of change throughout a model development sequence
- 2018
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In: ZDM - the International Journal on Mathematics Education. - : Springer. - 1863-9690 .- 1863-9704. ; 50:1-2, s. 187-200
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this article, we examine how a sequence of modeling activities supported the development of students’ interpretations and reasoning about phenomena with nega- tive average rates of change in different physical phenomena. Research has shown that creating and interpreting models of changing physical phenomena is difficult, even for university level students. Furthermore, students’ reasoning about mod- els of phenomena with negative rates of change has received little attention in the research literature. In this study, 35 students preparing to study engineering participated in a 6-week instructional unit on average rate of change that used a sequence of modeling activities. Using an analysis of the students’ work, our results show that the sequence of mod- eling activities was effective for nearly all students in reason- ing about motion with negative rates along a straight path. Almost all students were successful in constructing graphs of changing phenomena and their associated rate graphs in the contexts of motion, light dispersion and a discharging capacitor. Some students encountered new difficulties in interpreting and reasoning with negative rates in the con- texts of light dispersion, and new graphical representations emerged in students’ work in the context of the discharg- ing capacitor with its underlying exponential structure. The results suggest that sequences of modeling activities offer a structured approach for the instruction of advanced math- ematical content.
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Doerr, Helen M., et al.
(author)
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Design and Effectiveness of Modeling-Based Mathematics in a Summer Bridge Program
- 2014
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In: Journal of Engineering Education. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 1069-4730 .- 1524-4873. ; 103:1, s. 92-114
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundSince students' success in their first-semester college mathematics course is a key factor in their success in engineering, many summer bridge programs for underrepresented students focus on their preparation in mathematics. However, research on the design and efficacy of such programs is limited. We examine the design and effectiveness of a modeling-based approach to mathematics for entering freshmen engineering students.PurposeThe study addresses two questions: Does a modeling-based mathematics course in a bridge program positively affect students' performance in their first-semester college mathematics course? To what extent does a sequence of modeling tasks support the development of students' concepts of average rates of change?Design/MethodThis quasi-experimental study compared two cohorts of bridge program students over six years to examine the effectiveness of a modeling-based mathematics course on first-semester mathematics course grades. Pre- and post–tests measured changes in students' concepts of average rates of change.ResultsThe modeling-based mathematics course closed the previous letter grade gap between bridge program participants and non-participants in the first mathematics course. We also found significant course grade gains for students who took the modeling-based mathematics course compared with a previous cohort who took a traditional summer mathematics course.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the modeling-based mathematics course, with its focus on the development of engineering students' abilities to model changing phenomena, was effective in improving students' concepts of average rate of change and their first-semester mathematics course grade.
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| 33. |
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
- Doerr, Helen M., et al.
(author)
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Representations of Modelling in Mathematics Education
- 2017
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In: Mathematical modelling and applications. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319629674 - 9783319629681 ; , s. 71-81
-
Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mathematical models have a substantial impact at all levels of society, and hence mathematical modelling stands as an important topic in mathematics education. Mathematical modelling has a particular pedagogical/didactical discourse as modelling continues to garner attention in educational research. Diagrammatic representations of mathematical modelling processes are increasingly being used in curriculum documents on national and transnational levels. In this chapter, we critically discuss one of the most frequently used representations of modelling processes in the literature, namely, that of the modelling cycle, and offer alternative representations to more fully capture multiple aspects of modelling in mathematics education.
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| 36. |
- Doerr, Helen M., et al.
(author)
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Teaching practices and exploratory computer simulations
- 2013
-
In: Computers in The Schools. - : Routledge. - 0738-0569 .- 1528-7033. ; 30:1-2, s. 102-123
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While computing technologies are widely available in secondary schools, these technologies have had only limited impact on chang- ing classroom practices. In part, this can be attributed to an under- developed understanding of the role of the teacher in engaging in classroom practices that can support student learning with technol- ogy. In this qualitative study, we analyzed the teaching practices that supported pre-college students’ learning of a conceptually rich and deep topic (the average rate of change) when using an ex- ploratory computer simulation environment. The results illustrate the demands placed on teachers when faced with the generation of student ideas from their interactions with the simulation and three broad categories of teaching practices in response to these demands: (a) pressing students for representations, (b) harvest- ing student ideas, and (c) sorting out and refining student ideas. These findings contribute to evolving frameworks for understanding meaningful and productive technology use in teaching secondary mathematics.
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| 37. |
- Doerr, Helen M., et al.
(author)
-
Teaching practices and modelling changing phenomena
- 2013
-
In: Proceedings of the 8th Congress of European Research in Mathematics Education (CERME 8).
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While much research has demonstrated the positive impact of mathematical modelling on student learning, considerably less research has focused on the teaching practices that are needed to support modelling approaches to student learning. In this study, we examined the characteristics of teaching in a classroom setting where the students engaged in a sequence of model development tasks designed to support their abilities to create and interpret models of changing physical phenomena. The results illustrate the demands that modelling tasks place on teachers, ways of responding to those demands, and suggest needed pedagogical shifts in teaching practices.
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| 38. |
- Doerr, Helen M., et al.
(author)
-
Teaching practices, technology and student learning
- 2012
-
In: Proceedings of the 34th annual meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education (PME-NA 2012). - : Western Michigan University. - 9780615697925 ; , s. 1065-1072
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While computing technologies are widely available in secondary schools, these technologies have had only limited impact on changing classroom practices. Partly, this can be attributed to an underdeveloped understanding of the role of the teacher in engaging in classroom practices that can support student learning with technology. In this study, we analyzed the teaching practices that supported students’ learning of a conceptually rich and deep topic (the average rate of change) when using an exploratory computer simulation environment. The results illustrate the demands placed on teachers when faced with the multiplicity of student ideas generated by their interactions with the simulation and three aspects of a teaching practice in response to those demands. These findings contribute to evolving frameworks for understanding meaningful and productive technology use in teaching secondary mathematics.
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| 39. |
- Fernandez-Anez, Nieves, et al.
(author)
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Current Wildland Fire Patterns and Challenges in Europe : A Synthesis of National Perspectives
- 2021
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In: Air, Soil and Water Research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1178-6221. ; 14, s. 1-19
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Changes in climate, land use, and land management impact the occurrence and severity of wildland fires in many parts of the world. This is particularly evident in Europe, where ongoing changes in land use have strongly modified fire patterns over the last decades. Although satellite data by the European Forest Fire Information System provide large-scale wildland fire statistics across European countries, there is still a crucial need to collect and summarize in-depth local analysis and understanding of the wildland fire condition and associated challenges across Europe. This article aims to provide a general overview of the current wildland fire patterns and challenges as perceived by national representatives, supplemented by national fire statistics (2009–2018) across Europe. For each of the 31 countries included, we present a perspective authored by scientists or practitioners from each respective country, representing a wide range of disciplines and cultural backgrounds. The authors were selected from members of the COST Action “Fire and the Earth System: Science & Society” funded by the European Commission with the aim to share knowledge and improve communication about wildland fire. Where relevant, a brief overview of key studies, particular wildland fire challenges a country is facing, and an overview of notable recent fire events are also presented. Key perceived challenges included (1) the lack of consistent and detailed records for wildland fire events, within and across countries, (2) an increase in wildland fires that pose a risk to properties and human life due to high population densities and sprawl into forested regions, and (3) the view that, irrespective of changes in management, climate change is likely to increase the frequency and impact of wildland fires in the coming decades. Addressing challenge (1) will not only be valuable in advancing national and pan-European wildland fire management strategies, but also in evaluating perceptions (2) and (3) against more robust quantitative evidence.
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Lee, Hollylynne S., et al.
(author)
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Collaborative design work of teacher educators : A case from statistics
- 2013
-
In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Fifth Annual Meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. - Chicago, IL : University of Illinois at Chicago. ; , s. 357-364
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Our study, situated within graduate-level courses for teachers focused on statistics, illustrates work across institutions for making sense of teachers' statistical thinking. Using a common assessment instrument, we identify and discuss four items that indicate strong statistcal thinking and two that highlight concepts with which the teachers struggle. We discuss potenital course elements that may be contributing to areas of success. Implications for collaborative course (re)design and shared assessment items are discussed.
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| 42. |
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| 43. |
- Moell, Andrea, et al.
(author)
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Cell Separation in Vibrio cholerae Is Mediated by a Single Amidase Whose Action Is Modulated by Two Nonredundant Activators
- 2014
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In: Journal of Bacteriology. - : American Society for Microbiology. - 0021-9193 .- 1098-5530. ; 196:22, s. 3937-3948
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Synthesis and hydrolysis of septal peptidoglycan (PG) are critical processes at the conclusion of cell division that enable separation of daughter cells. Cleavage of septal PG is mediated by PG amidases, hydrolytic enzymes that release peptide side chains from the glycan strand. Most gammaproteobacteria, including Escherichia coli, encode several functionally redundant periplasmic amidases. However, members of the Vibrio genus, including the enteric pathogen Vibrio cholerae, encode only a single PG amidase, AmiB. Here, we show that V. cholerae AmiB is crucial for cell division and growth. Genetic and biochemical analyses indicated that AmiB is regulated by two activators, EnvC and NlpD, at least one of which is required for AmiB's localization to the cell division site. Localization of the activators (and thus of AmiB) is dependent upon the cell division protein FtsN. These factors mediate septal PG cleavage in E. coli as well; however, their precise roles vary between the two organisms in a number of ways. Notably, even though V. cholerae EnvC and NlpD appear to be functionally redundant under most growth conditions tested, NlpD is specifically required for intestinal colonization in the infant mouse model of cholera and for V. cholerae resistance against bile salts, perhaps due to environmental regulation of AmiB or its activators. Collectively, our findings reveal that although the cellular components that enable cleavage of septal PG appear to be generally conserved between E. coli and V. cholerae, they can be combined into diverse functional regulatory networks.
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| 44. |
- Willeit, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Inflammatory markers and extent and progression of early atherosclerosis : Meta-analysis of individual-participant-data from 20 prospective studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration
- 2016
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In: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 23:2, s. 194-205
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundLarge-scale epidemiological evidence on the role of inflammation in early atherosclerosis, assessed by carotid ultrasound, is lacking. We aimed to quantify cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of inflammatory markers with common-carotid-artery intima-media thickness (CCA-IMT) in the general population. MethodsInformation on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, leucocyte count and CCA-IMT was available in 20 prospective cohort studies of the PROG-IMT collaboration involving 49,097 participants free of pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Estimates of associations were calculated within each study and then combined using random-effects meta-analyses. ResultsMean baseline CCA-IMT amounted to 0.74mm (SD=0.18) and mean CCA-IMT progression over a mean of 3.9 years to 0.011mm/year (SD=0.039). Cross-sectional analyses showed positive linear associations between inflammatory markers and baseline CCA-IMT. After adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, mean differences in baseline CCA-IMT per one-SD higher inflammatory marker were: 0.0082mm for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (p<0.001); 0.0072mm for fibrinogen (p<0.001); and 0.0025mm for leucocyte count (p=0.033). Inflammatory load', defined as the number of elevated inflammatory markers (i.e. in upper two quintiles), showed a positive linear association with baseline CCA-IMT (p<0.001). Longitudinal associations of baseline inflammatory markers and changes therein with CCA-IMT progression were null or at most weak. Participants with the highest inflammatory load' had a greater CCA-IMT progression (p=0.015). ConclusionInflammation was independently associated with CCA-IMT cross-sectionally. The lack of clear associations with CCA-IMT progression may be explained by imprecision in its assessment within a limited time period. Our findings for inflammatory load' suggest important combined effects of the three inflammatory markers on early atherosclerosis.
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