1. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(author)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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5. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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6. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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7. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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8. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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10. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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11. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(author)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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In: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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12. |
- Mokdad, Ali H., et al.
(author)
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Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- 2018
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In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
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13. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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14. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(author)
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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years
- 2017
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
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15. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(author)
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Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2019
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
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16. |
- Munch, Marie W., et al.
(author)
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Effect of 12 mg vs 6 mg of Dexamethasone on the Number of Days Alive Without Life Support in Adults With COVID-19 and Severe Hypoxemia The COVID STEROID 2 Randomized Trial
- 2021
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In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : AMER MEDICAL ASSOC. - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 326:18, s. 1807-1817
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Question What is the effect of 12 mg vs 6 mg of dexamethasone on the number of days alive without life support at 28 days in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia? Findings In this randomized trial that included 1000 patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, treatment with 12 mg/d of dexamethasone resulted in 22.0 days alive without life support at 28 days compared with 20.5 days in those receiving 6 mg/d of dexamethasone. This difference was not statistically significant. Meaning Compared with 6 mg of dexamethasone, 12 mg of dexamethasone did not statistically significantly reduce the number of days alive without life support at 28 days. This multicenter randomized clinical trial compares the effects of 12 mg/d vs 6 mg/d of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia. IMPORTANCE A daily dose with 6 mg of dexamethasone is recommended for up to 10 days in patients with severe and critical COVID-19, but a higher dose may benefit those with more severe disease. OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of 12 mg/d vs 6 mg/d of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A multicenter, randomized clinical trial was conducted between August 2020 and May 2021 at 26 hospitals in Europe and India and included 1000 adults with confirmed COVID-19 requiring at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation. End of 90-day follow-up was on August 19, 2021. INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized 1:1 to 12 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 503) or 6 mg/d of intravenous dexamethasone (n = 497) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was the number of days alive without life support (invasive mechanical ventilation, circulatory support, or kidney replacement therapy) at 28 days and was adjusted for stratification variables. Of the 8 prespecified secondary outcomes, 5 are included in this analysis (the number of days alive without life support at 90 days, the number of days alive out of the hospital at 90 days, mortality at 28 days and at 90 days, and >= 1 serious adverse reactions at 28 days). RESULTS Of the 1000 randomized patients, 982 were included (median age, 65 [IQR, 55-73] years; 305 [31%] women) and primary outcome data were available for 971 (491 in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 480 in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group). The median number of days alive without life support was 22.0 days (IQR, 6.0-28.0 days) in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group and 20.5 days (IQR, 4.0-28.0 days) in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted mean difference, 1.3 days [95% CI, 0-2.6 days]; P = .07). Mortality at 28 days was 27.1% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 32.3% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.86 [99% CI, 0.68-1.08]). Mortality at 90 days was 32.0% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 37.7% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.87 [99% CI, 0.70-1.07]). Serious adverse reactions, including septic shock and invasive fungal infections, occurred in 11.3% in the 12 mg of dexamethasone group vs 13.4% in the 6 mg of dexamethasone group (adjusted relative risk, 0.83 [99% CI, 0.54-1.29]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia, 12 mg/d of dexamethasone compared with 6 mg/d of dexamethasone did not result in statistically significantly more days alive without life support at 28 days. However, the trial may have been underpowered to identify a significant difference.
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17. |
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18. |
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19. |
- Ahmad, Sajjad, et al.
(author)
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Novel mutations in genes of the IL-12/IFN-γ axis cause susceptibility to tuberculosis
- 2023
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In: Journal of Infection and Public Health. - : Elsevier. - 1876-0341 .- 1876-035X. ; 16:9, s. 1368-1378
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The IL-12/23/ISG15-IFN-γ pathway is the main immunological pathway for controlling intra-macrophagic microorganisms such as Mycobacteria, Salmonella, and Leishmania spp. Consequently, upon mutations in genes of the IL-12/23/ISG15-IFN-γ pathway cause increased susceptibility to intra-macrophagic pathogens, particularly to Mycobacteria. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to characterize the mutations in genes of the IL-12/23/ISG15-IFN-γ pathway in severe tuberculosis (TB) patients.Methods: Clinically suspected TB was initially confirmed in four patients (P) (P1, P2, P3, and P4) using the GeneXpert MTB/RIF and culturing techniques. The patients' Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) were then subjected to ELISA to measure Interleukin 12 (IL-12) and interferon gamma (IFN-γ). Flow cytometry was used to detect the surface expressions of IFN-γR1 and IFN-γR2 as well as IL-12Rβ1and IL-12Rβ2 on monocytes and T lymphocytes, respectively.The phosphorylation of signal transducer and activator of transcription 1(STAT1) on monocytes and STAT4 on T lymphocytes were also detected by flow cytometry. Sanger sequencing was used to identify mutations in the IL-12Rβ1, STAT1, NEMO, and CYBB genes.Results: P1's PBMCs exhibited reduced IFN-γ production, while P2's and P3's PBMCs exhibited impaired IL-12 induction. Low IL-12Rβ1 surface expression and reduced STAT4 phosphorylation were demonstrated by P1's T lymphocytes, while impaired STAT1 phosphorylation was detected in P2's monocytes. The impaired IκB-α degradation and abolished H2O2 production in monocytes and neutrophils of P3 and P4 were observed, respectively. Sanger sequencing revealed novel nonsense homozygous mutation: c.191 G>A/p.W64 * in exon 3 of the IL-12Rβ1 gene in P1, novel missense homozygous mutation: c.107 A>T/p.Q36L in exon 3 of the STAT1 gene in P2, missense hemizygous mutation:: c.950 A>C/p.Q317P in exon 8 of the NEMO gene in P3, and nonsense hemizygous mutation: c.868 C>T/p.R290X in exon 8 of CYBB gene in P4.Conclusion: Our findings broaden the clinical and genetic spectra associated with IL-12/23/ISG15-IFN-γ axis anomalies. Additionally, our data suggest that TB patients in Pakistan should be investigated for potential genetic defects due to high prevalence of parental consanguinity and increased incidence of TB in the country.
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20. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(author)
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Iran in transition
- 2019
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1984-2005
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being the second-largest country in the Middle East, Iran has a long history of civilisation during which several dynasties have been overthrown and established and health-related structures have been reorganised. Iran has had the replacement of traditional practices with modern medical treatments, emergence of multiple pioneer scientists and physicians with great contributions to the advancement of science, environmental and ecological changes in addition to large-scale natural disasters, epidemics of multiple communicable diseases, and the shift towards non-communicable diseases in recent decades. Given the lessons learnt from political instabilities in the past centuries and the approaches undertaken to overcome health challenges at the time, Iran has emerged as it is today. Iran is now a country with a population exceeding 80 million, mainly inhabiting urban regions, and has an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, malignancies, mental disorders, substance abuse, and road injuries.
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21. |
- Farhad, S., et al.
(author)
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Exergy analysis and performance evaluation of CNG to LNG converting process
- 2008
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In: Int. J. Exergy. ; 5:2, s. 164-176
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A process for converting Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is modelled thermodynamically and effects of design and operating parameters on exergy destruction and performance of the process are studied. Results show that CNG pressure, pressure after Joule–Thomson valve, and temperature of CNG after heat exchanger of refrigerating system have significant effects on optimum design and operation of the process. The results also indicate that the effects of CNG temperature after CNG production section, and pinch temperature of the last heat exchanger of the process are considerable. To determine the effects of natural gas composition on operating the CNG to LNG converting (CLC) process, variation of nitrogen as the most effective content of natural gas on operating the process has been studied and discussed.
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22. |
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23. |
- Levis, Mark, et al.
(author)
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Results from a randomized trial of salvage chemotherapy followed by lestaurtinib for patients with FLT3 mutant AML in first relapse
- 2011
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In: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 1528-0020 .- 0006-4971. ; 117:12, s. 3294-3301
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In a randomized trial of therapy for FMS-like tyrosine kinase-3 (FLT3) mutant acute myeloid leukemia in first relapse, 224 patients received chemotherapy alone or followed by 80 mg of the FLT3 inhibitor lestaurtinib twice daily. Endpoints included complete remission or complete remission with incomplete platelet recovery (CR/CRp), overall survival, safety, and tolerability. Correlative studies included pharmacokinetics and analysis of in vivo FLT3 inhibition. There were 29 patients with CR/CRp in the lestaurtinib arm and 23 in the control arm (26% vs 21%; P = .35), and no difference in overall survival between the 2 arms. There was evidence of toxicity in the lestaurtinib-treated patients, particularly those with plasma levels in excess of 20 mu M. In the lestaurtinib arm, FLT3 inhibition was highly correlated with remission rate, but target inhibition on day 15 was achieved in only 58% of patients receiving lestaurtinib. Given that such a small proportion of patients on this trial achieved sustained FLT3 inhibition in vivo, any conclusions regarding the efficacy of combining FLT3 inhibition with chemotherapy are limited. Overall, lestaurtinib treatment after chemotherapy did not increase response rates or prolong survival of patients with FLT3 mutant acute myeloid leukemia in first relapse. This study is registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00079482. (Blood. 2011;117(12): 3294-3301)
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24. |
- Menghrajani, Kamal, et al.
(author)
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Risk classification at diagnosis predicts post-HCT outcomes in intermediate-, adverse-risk, and KMT2A-rearranged AML
- 2022
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In: Blood Advances. - : American Society of Hematology. - 2473-9529 .- 2473-9537. ; 6:3, s. 828-847
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Little is known about whether risk classification at diagnosis predicts post-hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) outcomes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). We evaluated 8709 patients with AML from the CIBMTR database, and after selection and manual curation of the cytogenetics data, 3779 patients in first complete remission were included in the final analysis: 2384 with intermediate-risk, 969 with adverse-risk, and 426 with KMT2A-rearranged disease. An adjusted multivariable analysis detected an increased risk of relapse for patients with KMT2A-rearranged or adverse-risk AML as compared to those with intermediate-risk disease (hazards ratio [HR], 1.27; P = .01; HR, 1.71; P < .001, respectively). Leukemia-free survival was similar for patients with KMT2A rearrangement or adverse risk (HR, 1.26; P = .002, and HR, 1.47; P < .001), as was overall survival (HR, 1.32; P < .001, and HR, 1.45; P < .001). No differences in outcome were detected when patients were stratified by KMT2A fusion partner. This study is the largest conducted to date on post-HCT outcomes in AML, with manually curated cytogenetics used for risk stratification. Our work demonstrates that risk classification at diagnosis remains predictive of post-HCT outcomes in AML. It also highlights the critical need to develop novel treatment strategies for patients with KMT2A-rearranged and adverse-risk disease.
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25. |
- Sepanlou, Sadaf G., et al.
(author)
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Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) for 315 Diseases and Injuries and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015 : Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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In: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 20:7, s. 403-418
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Summary measures of health are essential in making estimates of health status that are comparable across time and place. They can be used for assessing the performance of health systems, informing effective policy making, and monitoring the progress of nations toward achievement of sustainable development goals. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) as main summary measures of health. We assessed the trends of health status in Iran and 15 neighboring countries using these summary measures.METHODS: We used the results of GBD 2015 to present the levels and trends of DALYs, life expectancy (LE), and HALE in Iran and its 15 neighboring countries from 1990 to 2015. For each country, we assessed the ratio of observed levels of DALYs and HALE to those expected based on socio-demographic index (SDI), an indicator composed of measures of total fertility rate, income per capita, and average years of schooling.RESULTS: All-age numbers of DALYs reached over 19 million years in Iran in 2015. The all-age number of DALYs has remained stable during the past two decades in Iran, despite the decreasing trends in all-age and age-standardized rates. The all-cause DALY rates decreased from 47,200 in 1990 to 28,400 per 100,000 in 2015. The share of non-communicable diseases in DALYs increased in Iran (from 42% to 74%) and all of its neighbors between 1990 and 2015; the pattern of change is similar in almost all 16 countries. The DALY rates for NCDs and injuries in Iran were higher than global rates and the average rate in High Middle SDI countries, while those for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders were much lower in Iran. Among men, cardiovascular diseases ranked first in all countries of the region except for Bahrain. Among women, they ranked first in 13 countries. Life expectancy and HALE show a consistent increase in all countries. Still, there are dissimilarities indicating a generally low LE and HALE in Afghanistan and Pakistan and high expectancy in Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Iran ranked 11th in terms of LE at birth and 12th in terms of HALE at birth in 1990 which improved to 9th for both metrics in 2015. Turkey and Iran had the highest increase in LE and HALE from 1990 to 2015 while the lowest increase was observed in Armenia, Pakistan, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iraq.CONCLUSIONS: The levels and trends in causes of DALYs, life expectancy, and HALE generally show similarities between the 16 countries, although differences exist. The differences observed between countries can be attributed to a myriad of determinants, including social, cultural, ethnic, religious, political, economic, and environmental factors as well as the performance of the health system. Investigating the differences between countries can inform more effective health policy and resource allocation. Concerted efforts at national and regional levels are required to tackle the emerging burden of non-communicable diseases and injuries in Iran and its neighbors.
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26. |
- Sushko, Iurii, et al.
(author)
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Applicability Domains for Classification Problems : Benchmarking of Distance to Models for Ames Mutagenicity Set.
- 2010
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In: Journal of chemical information and modeling. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1549-9596 .- 1549-960X. ; 50:12, s. 2094-2111
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The estimation of accuracy and applicability of QSAR and QSPR models for biological and physicochemical properties represents a critical problem. The developed parameter of "distance to model" (DM) is defined as a metric of similarity between the training and test set compounds that have been subjected to QSAR/QSPR modeling. In our previous work, we demonstrated the utility and optimal performance of DM metrics that have been based on the standard deviation within an ensemble of QSAR models. The current study applies such analysis to 30 QSAR models for the Ames mutagenicity data set that were previously reported within the 2009 QSAR challenge. We demonstrate that the DMs based on an ensemble (consensus) model provide systematically better performance than other DMs. The presented approach identifies 30-60% of compounds having an accuracy of prediction similar to the interlaboratory accuracy of the Ames test, which is estimated to be 90%. Thus, the in silico predictions can be used to halve the cost of experimental measurements by providing a similar prediction accuracy. The developed model has been made publicly available at http://ochem.eu/models/1 .
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27. |
- Alanio, Cécile, et al.
(author)
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Bystander hyperactivation of preimmune CD8(+) T cells in chronic HCV patients
- 2015
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In: eLife. - 2050-084X. ; 2015:4
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Chronic infection perturbs immune homeostasis. While prior studies have reported dysregulation of effector and memory cells, little is known about the effects on naïve T cell populations. We performed a cross-sectional study of chronic hepatitis C (cHCV) patients using tetramer-associated magnetic enrichment to study antigen-specific inexperienced CD8(+) T cells (i.e., tumor or unrelated virus-specific populations in tumor-free and sero-negative individuals). cHCV showed normal precursor frequencies, but increased proportions of memory-phenotype inexperienced cells, as compared to healthy donors or cured HCV patients. These observations could be explained by low surface expression of CD5, a negative regulator of TCR signaling. Accordingly, we demonstrated TCR hyperactivation and generation of potent CD8(+) T cell responses from the altered T cell repertoire of cHCV patients. In sum, we provide the first evidence that naïve CD8(+) T cells are dysregulated during cHCV infection, and establish a new mechanism of immune perturbation secondary to chronic infection.
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28. |
- Angenendt, Linus, et al.
(author)
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Chromosomal Abnormalities and Prognosis in NPM1-Mutated Acute Myeloid Leukemia : A Pooled Analysis of Individual Patient Data From Nine International Cohorts
- 2019
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In: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - : AMER SOC CLINICAL ONCOLOGY. - 0732-183X .- 1527-7755. ; 37:29, s. 2632-2642
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- PURPOSE: Nucleophosmin 1 (NPM1) mutations are associated with a favorable prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) when an internal tandem duplication (ITD) in the fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 gene (FLT3) is absent (FLT3-ITDneg) or present with a low allelic ratio (FLT3-ITDlow). The 2017 European LeukemiaNet guidelines assume this is true regardless of accompanying cytogenetic abnormalities. We investigated the validity of this assumption.METHODS: We analyzed associations between karyotype and outcome in intensively treated patients with NPM1(mut)/FLT3-ITDneg/low AML who were prospectively enrolled in registry databases from nine international study groups or treatment centers.RESULTS: Among 2,426 patients with NPM1(mut)/FLT3-ITDneg/low AML, 2,000 (82.4%) had a normal and 426 (17.6%) had an abnormal karyotype, including 329 patients (13.6%) with intermediate and 83 patients (3.4%) with adverse-risk chromosomal abnormalities. In patients with NPM1(mut)/FLT3-ITDneg/low AML, adverse cytogenetics were associated with lower complete remission rates (87.7%, 86.0%, and 66.3% for normal, aberrant intermediate, and adverse karyotype, respectively; P < .001), inferior 5-year overall (52.4%, 44.8%, 19.5%, respectively; P < .001) and event-free survival (40.6%, 36.0%, 18.1%, respectively; P < .001), and a higher 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse (43.6%, 44.2%, 51.9%, respectively; P = .0012). These associations remained in multivariable mixed-effects regression analyses adjusted for known clinicopathologic risk factors (P < .001 for all end points). In patients with adverse-risk chromosomal aberrations, we found no significant influence of the NPM1 mutational status on outcome.CONCLUSION: Karyotype abnormalities are significantly associated with outcome in NPM1(mut)/FLT3-ITDneg/low AML. When adverse-risk cytogenetics are present, patients with NPM1(mut) share the same unfavorable prognosis as patients with NPM1 wild type and should be classified and treated accordingly. Thus, cytogenetic risk predominates over molecular risk in NPM1(mut)/FLT3-ITDneg/low AML.
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29. |
- Bladen, Catherine L., et al.
(author)
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The TREAT-NMD Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Registries : Conception, Design, and Utilization by Industry and Academia
- 2013
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In: Human Mutation. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1059-7794 .- 1098-1004. ; 34:11, s. 1449-1457
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) is an X-linked genetic disease, caused by the absence of the dystrophin protein. Although many novel therapies are under development for DMD, there is currently no cure and affected individuals are often confined to a wheelchair by their teens and die in their twenties/thirties. DMD is a rare disease (prevalence<5/10,000). Even the largest countries do not have enough affected patients to rigorously assess novel therapies, unravel genetic complexities, and determine patient outcomes. TREAT-NMD is a worldwide network for neuromuscular diseases that provides an infrastructure to support the delivery of promising new therapies for patients. The harmonized implementation of national and ultimately global patient registries has been central to the success of TREAT-NMD. For the DMD registries within TREAT-NMD, individual countries have chosen to collect patient information in the form of standardized patient registries to increase the overall patient population on which clinical outcomes and new technologies can be assessed. The registries comprise more than 13,500 patients from 31 different countries. Here, we describe how the TREAT-NMD national patient registries for DMD were established. We look at their continued growth and assess how successful they have been at fostering collaboration between academia, patient organizations, and industry.
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30. |
- Djalalinia, Shirin, et al.
(author)
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Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability of 310 Diseases and Injuries in Iran and its Neighboring Countries, 1990-2015 : Findings from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
-
In: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 20:7, s. 392-402
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Due to significant achievements in reducing mortality and increasing life expectancy, the issue of disability from diseases and injuries, and their related interventions, has become one of the most important concerns of health-related research.METHODS: Using data obtained from the GBD 2015 study, the present report provides prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of 310 diseases and injuries by sex and age in Iran and neighboring countries over the period 1990-2015. Age-standardized rates of all causes of YLDs are presented for both males and females in 16 countries for 1990 and 2015. We present the percentage of total YLDs for 21 categories of diseases and injuries, the percentage of YLDs for age groups, as well as the ranking of the most prevalent causes and YLDs from the top 50 diseases and injuries in Iran.RESULTS: In 2015, the burden of 310 diseases and injuries among the Iranian population was responsible for 8,357,878 loss of all-age total years, which is equal to 10.58% of total years lived per year. This differs from the neighboring countries, as it ranges from 9.05% in Turkmenistan to 13.36% in Russia. During the past 25 years, a remarkable decrease was observed in all-cause YLD rates in all 16 countries. Meanwhile, in all countries, the age-standardized rate of all causes of YLDs was higher in females than males.CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, one of the remarkable changes in NCDs observed among the studied age groups was increased rate of YLDs from mental disorders, which was replaced by musculoskeletal disorders in older age groups in 2015.
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31. |
- Farokhi, Farhad, 1987-, et al.
(author)
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A Heterogeneous Routing Game
- 2013
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In: 2013 51st Annual Allerton Conference on Communication, Control, and Computing, Allerton 2013. - : IEEE conference proceedings. - 9781479934096 ; , s. 448-455
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most literature on routing games make the assumption that drivers or vehicles are of the same type and, hence, experience the same latency or cost when traveling along the edges of the network. In contrast, in this article, we propose a heterogeneous routing game in which each driver or vehicle belongs to a certain type. The type determines the cost of traveling along an edge as a function of the flow of all types of drivers or vehicles over that edge. We examine the existence of a Nash equilibrium in this heterogeneous routing game. We study the conditions for which the problem of finding a Nash equilibrium can be posed as a convex optimization problem and is therefore numerically tractable. Numerical simulations are presented to validate the results.
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32. |
- Farokhi, Farhad, et al.
(author)
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Estimation With Strategic Sensors
- 2017
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In: IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. - 0018-9286 .- 1558-2523. ; 62:2, s. 724-739
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- © 1963-2012 IEEE. We introduce a model of estimation in the presence of strategic, self-interested sensors. We employ a game-Theoretic setup to model the interaction between the sensors and the receiver. The cost function of the receiver is equal to the estimation error variance while the cost function of the sensor contains an extra term which is determined by its private information. We start by the single sensor case in which the receiver has access to a noisy but honest side information in addition to the message transmitted by a strategic sensor. We study both static and dynamic estimation problems. For both these problems, we characterize a family of equilibria in which the sensor and the receiver employ simple strategies. Interestingly, for the dynamic estimation problem, we find an equilibrium for which the strategic sensor uses a memory-less policy. We generalize the static estimation setup to multiple sensors with synchronous communication structure (i.e., all the sensors transmit their messages simultaneously). We prove the maybe surprising fact that, for the constructed equilibrium in affine strategies, the estimation quality degrades as the number of sensors increases. However, if the sensors are herding (i.e., copying each other policies), the quality of the receiver’s estimation improves as the number of sensors increases. Finally, we consider the asynchronous communication structure (i.e., the sensors transmit their messages sequentially).
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33. |
- Farokhi, Farhad, et al.
(author)
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Gaussian Cheap Talk Game with Quadratic Cost Functions : When Herding Between Strategic Senders is a Virtue
- 2014
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In: 2014 AMERICAN CONTROL CONFERENCE (ACC). - 9781479932740
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We consider a Gaussian cheap talk game with quadratic cost functions. The cost function of the receiver is equal to the estimation error variance, however, the cost function of each senders contains an extra term which is captured by its private information. Following the cheap talk literature, we model this problem as a game with asymmetric information. We start by the single sender case in which the receiver also has access to a noisy but honest side information in addition to the message transmitted by a strategic sender. We generalize this setup to multiple sender case. For the multiple sender case, we observe that if the senders are not herding (i. e., copying each other policies), the quality of the receiver's estimation degrades rapidly as the number of senders increases.
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34. |
- Farokhi, Farhad, 1987-, et al.
(author)
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When Do Potential Functions Exist in Heterogeneous Routing Games?
- 2014
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- We study a heterogeneous routing game in which vehicles might belong to more than one type. The type determines the cost of traveling along an edge as a function of the flow of various types of vehicles over that edge. We relax the assumptions needed for the existence of a Nash equilibrium in this heterogeneous routing game. We extend the available results to present necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a potential function. We characterize a set of tolls that guarantee the existence of a potential function when only two types of users are participating in the game. We present an upper bound for the price of anarchy (i.e., the worst-case ratio of the social cost calculated for a Nash equilibrium over the social cost for a socially optimal flow) for the case in which only two types of players are participating in a game with affine edge cost functions. A heterogeneous routing game with vehicle platooning incentives is used as an example throughout the article to clarify the concepts and to validate the results.
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35. |
- Ferro, Ana, et al.
(author)
-
Alcohol intake and gastric cancer : Meta-analyses of published data versus individual participant data pooled analyses (StoP Project)
- 2018
-
In: Cancer Epidemiology. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 1877-7821 .- 1877-783X. ; 54, s. 125-132
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Individual participant data pooled analyses allow access to non-published data and statistical reanalyses based on more homogeneous criteria than meta-analyses based on systematic reviews. We quantified the impact of publication-related biases and heterogeneity in data analysis and presentation in summary estimates of the association between alcohol drinking and gastric cancer.Methods: We compared estimates obtained from conventional meta-analyses, using only data available in published reports from studies that take part in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, with individual participant data pooled analyses including the same studies.Results: A total of 22 studies from the StoP Project assessed the relation between alcohol intake and gastric cancer, 19 had specific data for levels of consumption and 18 according to cancer location; published reports addressing these associations were available from 18, 5 and 5 studies, respectively. The summary odds ratios [OR, (95%CI)] estimate obtained with published data for drinkers vs. non-drinkers was 10% higher than the one obtained with individual StoP data [18 vs. 22 studies: 1.21 (1.07-1.36) vs. 1.10 (0.99-1.23)] and more heterogeneous (1(2): 63.6% vs 54.4%). In general, published data yielded less precise summary estimates (standard errors up to 2.6 times higher). Funnel plot analysis suggested publication bias.Conclusion: Meta-analyses of the association between alcohol drinking and gastric cancer tended to overestimate the magnitude of the effects, possibly due to publication bias. Additionally, individual participant data pooled analyses yielded more precise estimates for different levels of exposure or cancer subtypes.
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36. |
- Ferro, Ana, et al.
(author)
-
Fruits and vegetables intake and gastric cancer risk : A pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling Project.
- 2020
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 147:11, s. 3090-3101
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A low intake of fruits and vegetables is a risk factor for gastric cancer, although there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the associations. In our study, the relationship between fruits and vegetables intake and gastric cancer was assessed, complementing a previous work on the association betweenconsumption of citrus fruits and gastric cancer. Data from 25 studies (8456 cases and 21 133 controls) with information on fruits and/or vegetables intake were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age and the main known risk factors for gastric cancer) odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Exposure-response relations, including linear and nonlinear associations, were modeled using one- and two-order fractional polynomials. Gastric cancer risk was lower for a higher intake of fruits (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.64-0.90), noncitrus fruits (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.73-1.02), vegetables (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56-0.84), and fruits and vegetables (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.49-0.75); results were consistent across sociodemographic and lifestyles categories, as well as study characteristics. Exposure-response analyses showed an increasingly protective effect of portions/day of fruits (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.57-0.73 for six portions), noncitrus fruits (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61-0.83 for six portions) and vegetables (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.43-0.60 for 10 portions). A protective effect of all fruits, noncitrus fruits and vegetables was confirmed, supporting further dietary recommendations to decrease the burden of gastric cancer.
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37. |
- Ferro, Ana, et al.
(author)
-
Tobacco smoking and gastric cancer: : meta-analyses of published data versus pooled analyses of individual participant data (StoP Project).
- 2018
-
In: European Journal of Cancer Prevention. - 0959-8278 .- 1473-5709. ; 27:3, s. 197-204
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Tobacco smoking is one of the main risk factors for gastric cancer, but the magnitude of the association estimated by conventional systematic reviews and meta-analyses might be inaccurate, due to heterogeneous reporting of data and publication bias. We aimed to quantify the combined impact of publication-related biases, and heterogeneity in data analysis or presentation, in the summary estimates obtained from conventional meta-analyses. We compared results from individual participant data pooled-analyses, including the studies in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, with conventional meta-analyses carried out using only data available in previously published reports from the same studies. From the 23 studies in the StoP Project, 20 had published reports with information on smoking and gastric cancer, but only six had specific data for gastric cardia cancer and seven had data on the daily number of cigarettes smoked. Compared to the results obtained with the StoP database, conventional meta-analyses overvalued the relation between ever smoking (summary odds ratios ranging from 7% higher for all studies to 22% higher for the risk of gastric cardia cancer) and yielded less precise summary estimates (SE ≤2.4 times higher). Additionally, funnel plot asymmetry and corresponding hypotheses tests were suggestive of publication bias. Conventional meta-analyses and individual participant data pooled-analyses reached similar conclusions on the direction of the association between smoking and gastric cancer. However, published data tended to overestimate the magnitude of the effects, possibly due to publication biases and limited the analyses by different levels of exposure or cancer subtypes.
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38. |
- Garcia, Danilo, 1973, et al.
(author)
-
Person-Centered Care
- 2018
-
In: V. Zeigler-Hill & T. Shackelford (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Personality and Individual Differences. - Cham, Switzerland : Springer.
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Person-centered care is a model for health care that involves a biopsychosocial approach on health (physical, psychological, and social) and the person (body, mind, and psyche; Cloninger, 2004, 2013ab) through the alliance between the one giving care and the one seeking care as equal partners. One of the main aims is to implement a process that goes beyond the diagnostic formulation of identifying a disease state or ill-health, that is, a process of total health status, including ill-being and well-being (Mezzich et al., 2016). A second main aim is to empower the person seeking care to make self-directed informed choices to promote well-being in all planes of her/his life by including her/his subjective narratives, values, and meanings of illness and health as well as personal preferences and choices in treatment and care (Wong & Cloninger, 2010). A third main aim is the promotion of a working alliance in the health care process (Rogers, 1946; Kitwood & Bredin, 1992). This alliance includes the health care personnel, the person seeking the care, significant others, and also other community stakeholders involved in the health care of the person.
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39. |
- Garcia-Molina, G., et al.
(author)
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Automated NREM sleep staging using the Electro-oculogram : A pilot study
- 2012
-
In: Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society (EMBC), 2012 Annual International Conference of the IEEE. - : IEEE. - 9781424441198 ; , s. 2255-2258
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Automatic sleep staging from convenient and unobtrusive sensors has received considerable attention lately because this can enable a large range of potential applications in the clinical and consumer fields. In this paper the focus is on achieving non-REM (NREM) sleep staging from ocular electrodes. From these signals, specific patterns related to sleep such as slow eye movements, K-complexes, eye blinks, and spectral features are estimated. Although such patterns are characteristic of the Electroencephalogram, they can also be visible to a lesser extent on signals from ocular electrodes. Automatic sleep staging was implemented using two approaches: i) based on a state-machine and ii) using a neural network. The first one relied on the recommendations of the American Academy of Sleep Medicine, and the second one used a multilayer perceptron which was trained on manually sleep-staged data. Results were obtained on the data of five volunteers who participated in a nap experiment. Manual sleep staging of this data, performed by an expert, was used as reference. Five stages were considered, namely wake with eyes open, wake with eyes closed, and sleep stages N1, N2, and N3. The results were characterized in terms of confusion matrices from which the Cohen's κ coefficients were estimated. The values of κ for both the state-machine and neural-network based automatic sleep staging approaches were 0.79 and 0.59 respectively. Thus, the state-machine based approach shows a very good agreement with manual staging of sleep-data.
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40. |
- Granholm, Anders, et al.
(author)
-
Dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg for patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia: a pre-planned, secondary Bayesian analysis of the COVID STEROID 2 trial
- 2022
-
In: Intensive Care Medicine. - : SPRINGER. - 0342-4642 .- 1432-1238. ; 48:1, s. 45-55
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose We compared dexamethasone 12 versus 6 mg daily for up to 10 days in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe hypoxaemia in the international, randomised, blinded COVID STEROID 2 trial. In the primary, conventional analyses, the predefined statistical significance thresholds were not reached. We conducted a pre-planned Bayesian analysis to facilitate probabilistic interpretation. Methods We analysed outcome data within 90 days in the intention-to-treat population (data available in 967 to 982 patients) using Bayesian models with various sensitivity analyses. Results are presented as median posterior probabilities with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) and probabilities of different effect sizes with 12 mg dexamethasone. Results The adjusted mean difference on days alive without life support at day 28 (primary outcome) was 1.3 days (95% CrI -0.3 to 2.9; 94.2% probability of benefit). Adjusted relative risks and probabilities of benefit on serious adverse reactions was 0.85 (0.63 to 1.16; 84.1%) and on mortality 0.87 (0.73 to 1.03; 94.8%) at day 28 and 0.88 (0.75 to 1.02; 95.1%) at day 90. Probabilities of benefit on days alive without life support and days alive out of hospital at day 90 were 85 and 95.7%, respectively. Results were largely consistent across sensitivity analyses, with relatively low probabilities of clinically important harm with 12 mg on all outcomes in all analyses. Conclusion We found high probabilities of benefit and low probabilities of clinically important harm with dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg daily in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia on all outcomes up to 90 days.
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41. |
- Granholm, Anders, et al.
(author)
-
Higher vs Lower Doses of Dexamethasone in Patients with COVID-19 and Severe Hypoxia (COVID STEROID 2) trial: Protocol for a secondary Bayesian analysis
- 2021
-
In: Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica. - : WILEY. - 0001-5172 .- 1399-6576. ; 65:5, s. 702-710
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to severe hypoxic respiratory failure and death. Corticosteroids decrease mortality in severely or critically ill patients with COVID-19. However, the optimal dose remains unresolved. The ongoing randomised COVID STEROID 2 trial investigates the effects of higher vs lower doses of dexamethasone (12 vs 6 mg intravenously daily for up to 10 days) in 1,000 adult patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia. Methods This protocol outlines the rationale and statistical methods for a secondary, pre-planned Bayesian analysis of the primary outcome (days alive without life support at day 28) and all secondary outcomes registered up to day 90. We will use hurdle-negative binomial models to estimate the mean number of days alive without life support in each group and present results as mean differences and incidence rate ratios with 95% credibility intervals (CrIs). Additional count outcomes will be analysed similarly and binary outcomes will be analysed using logistic regression models with results presented as probabilities, relative risks and risk differences with 95% CrIs. We will present probabilities of any benefit/harm, clinically important benefit/harm and probabilities of effects smaller than pre-defined clinically minimally important differences for all outcomes analysed. Analyses will be adjusted for stratification variables and conducted using weakly informative priors supplemented by sensitivity analyses using sceptic priors. Discussion This secondary, pre-planned Bayesian analysis will supplement the primary, conventional analysis and may help clinicians, researchers and policymakers interpret the results of the COVID STEROID 2 trial while avoiding arbitrarily dichotomised interpretations of the results. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04509973; EudraCT: 2020-003363-25.
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42. |
- Granholm, Anders, et al.
(author)
-
Long-term outcomes of dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia
- 2022
-
In: Intensive Care Medicine. - : SPRINGER. - 0342-4642 .- 1432-1238. ; 48, s. 580-589
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose We assessed long-term outcomes of dexamethasone 12 mg versus 6 mg given daily for up to 10 days in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe hypoxaemia. Methods We assessed 180-day mortality and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) using EuroQoL (EQ)-5D-5L index values and EQ visual analogue scale (VAS) in the international, stratified, blinded COVID STEROID 2 trial, which randomised 1000 adults with confirmed COVID-19 receiving at least 10 L/min of oxygen or mechanical ventilation in 26 hospitals in Europe and India. In the HRQoL analyses, higher values indicated better outcomes, and deceased patients were given a score of zero. Results We obtained vital status at 180 days for 963 of 982 patients (98.1%) in the intention-to-treat population, EQ-5D-5L index value data for 922 (93.9%) and EQ VAS data for 924 (94.1%). At 180 days, 164 of 486 patients (33.7%) had died in the 12 mg group versus 184 of 477 (38.6%) in the 6 mg group [adjusted risk difference - 4.3%; 99% confidence interval (CI) - 11.7-3.0; relative risk 0.89; 0.72-1.09; P = 0.13]. The adjusted mean differences between the 12 mg and the 6 mg groups in EQ-5D-5L index values were 0.06 (99% CI - 0.01 to 0.12; P = 0.10) and in EQ VAS scores 4 (- 3 to 10; P = 0.22). Conclusion Among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxaemia, dexamethasone 12 mg compared with 6 mg did not result in statistically significant improvements in mortality or HRQoL at 180 days, but the results were most compatible with benefit from the higher dose.
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43. |
- Hu, Bei, et al.
(author)
-
Timing of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients
- 2020
-
In: Leukemia and Lymphoma. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1042-8194 .- 1029-2403. ; 61:12, s. 2811-2820
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While TKI are the preferred first-line treatment for chronic phase (CP) CML, alloHCT remains an important consideration. The aim is to estimate residual life expectancy (RLE) for patients initially diagnosed with CP CML based on timing of alloHCT or continuation of TKI in various settings: CP1 CML, CP2 + [after transformation to accelerated phase (AP) or blast phase (BP)], AP, or BP. Non-transplant cohort included single-institution patients initiating TKI and switched TKI due to failure. CIBMTR transplant cohort included CML patients who underwent HLA sibling matched (MRD) or unrelated donor (MUD) alloHCT. AlloHCT appeared to shorten survival in CP1 CML with overall mortality hazard ratio (HR) for alloHCT of 2.4 (95% CI 1.2-4.9;p = .02). In BP CML, there was a trend toward higher survival with alloHCT; HR = 0.7 (0.5-1.1;p = .099). AlloHCT in CP2 + [HR = 2.0 (0.8-4.9),p = .13] and AP [HR = 1.1 (0.6-2.1);p = .80] is less clear and should be determined on a case-by-case basis.
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44. |
- Ittner, Lars M, et al.
(author)
-
Compound developmental eye disorders following inactivation of TGFbeta signaling in neural-crest stem cells
- 2005
-
In: Journal of Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-4924. ; 4:11
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Development of the eye depends partly on the periocular mesenchyme derived from the neural crest (NC), but the fate of NC cells in mammalian eye development and the signals coordinating the formation of ocular structures are poorly understood. RESULTS: Here we reveal distinct NC contributions to both anterior and posterior mesenchymal eye structures and show that TGFbeta signaling in these cells is crucial for normal eye development. In the anterior eye, TGFbeta2 released from the lens is required for the expression of transcription factors Pitx2 and Foxc1 in the NC-derived cornea and in the chamber-angle structures of the eye that control intraocular pressure. TGFbeta enhances Foxc1 and induces Pitx2 expression in cell cultures. As in patients carrying mutations in PITX2 and FOXC1, TGFbeta signal inactivation in NC cells leads to ocular defects characteristic of the human disorder Axenfeld-Rieger's anomaly. In the posterior eye, NC cell-specific inactivation of TGFbeta signaling results in a condition reminiscent of the human disorder persistent hyperplastic primary vitreous. As a secondary effect, retinal patterning is also disturbed in mutant mice. CONCLUSION: In the developing eye the lens acts as a TGFbeta signaling center that controls the development of eye structures derived from the NC. Defective TGFbeta signal transduction interferes with NC-cell differentiation and survival anterior to the lens and with normal tissue morphogenesis and patterning posterior to the lens. The similarity to developmental eye disorders in humans suggests that defective TGFbeta signal modulation in ocular NC derivatives contributes to the pathophysiology of these diseases.
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45. |
- Karbalaie, Abdolamir, 1970-, et al.
(author)
-
Elliptical broken line method for calculating capillary density in nailfold capillaroscopy : Proposal and evaluation
- 2017
-
In: Microvascular Research. - : Academic Press. - 0026-2862 .- 1095-9319. ; 113, s. 1-8
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nailfold capillaroscopy is a practical method for identifying and obtaining morphological changes in capillaries which might reveal relevant information about diseases and health. Capillaroscopy is harmless, and seems simple and repeatable. However, there is lack of established guidelines and instructions for acquisition as well as the interpretation of the obtained images; which might lead to various ambiguities. In addition, assessment and interpretation of the acquired images are very subjective. In an attempt to overcome some of these problems, in this study a new modified technique for assessment of nailfold capillary density is introduced. The new method is named elliptic broken line (EBL) which is an extension of the two previously known methods by defining clear criteria for finding the apex of capillaries in different scenarios by using a fitted elliptic. A graphical user interface (GUI) is developed for pre-processing, manual assessment of capillary apexes and automatic correction of selected apexes based on 90° rule. Intra- and inter-observer reliability of EBL and corrected EBL is evaluated in this study. Four independent observers familiar with capillaroscopy performed the assessment for 200 nailfold videocapillaroscopy images, form healthy subject and systemic lupus erythematosus patients, in two different sessions. The results show elevation from moderate (ICC = 0.691) and good (ICC = 0.753) agreements to good (ICC = 0.750) and good (ICC = 0.801) for intra- and inter-observer reliability after automatic correction of EBL. This clearly shows the potential of this method to improve the reliability and repeatability of assessment which motivates us for further development of automatic tool for EBL method.
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46. |
- Karslloǧlu, Osman, et al.
(author)
-
Prospects for the expansion of standing wave ambient pressure photoemission spectroscopy to reactions at elevated temperatures
- 2022
-
In: Journal of Vacuum Science and Technology A: Vacuum, Surfaces and Films. - : American Vacuum Society. - 0734-2101 .- 1520-8559. ; 40:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Standing wave ambient pressure photoemission spectroscopy (SWAPPS) is a promising method to investigate chemical and potential gradients across solid-vapor and solid-liquid interfaces under close-to-realistic environmental conditions, far away from high vacuum. Until now, these investigations have been performed only near room temperature, but for a wide range of interfacial processes, chief among them being heterogeneous catalysis, measurements at elevated temperatures are required. One concern in these investigations is the temperature stability of the multilayer mirrors, which generate the standing wave field. At elevated temperatures, degradation of the multilayer mirror due to, for example, interdiffusion between the adjacent layers, decreases the modulation of the standing wave field, thus rendering SWAPPS experiments much harder to perform. Here, we show that multilayer mirrors consisting of alternate B4C and W layers are stable at temperatures exceeding 600 °C and are, thus, promising candidates for future studies of surface and subsurface species in heterogeneous catalytic reactions using SWAPPS.
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47. |
- Keimer, Alexander, et al.
(author)
-
Information Patterns in the Modeling and Design of Mobility Management Services
- 2018
-
In: Proceedings of the IEEE. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 0018-9219 .- 1558-2256. ; 106:4, s. 554-576
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The development of sustainable transportation infrastructure for people and goods, using new technology and business models, can prove beneficial or detrimental for mobility, depending on its design and use. The focus of this paper is on the increasing impact new mobility services have on traffic patterns and transportation efficiency in general. Over the last decade, the rise of the mobile internet and the usage of mobile devices have enabled ubiquitous traffic information. With the increased adoption of specific smartphone applications, the number of users of routing applications has become large enough to disrupt traffic flow patterns in a significant manner. Similarly, but at a slightly slower pace, novel services for freight transportation and city logistics improve the efficiency of goods transportation and change the use of road infrastructure. This paper provides a general four-layer framework for modeling these new trends. The main motivation behind the development is to provide a unifying formal system description that can at the same time encompass system physics (flow and motion of vehicles) as well as coordination strategies under various information and cooperation structures. To showcase the framework, we apply it to the specific challenge of modeling and analyzing the integration of routing applications in today's transportation systems. In this framework, at the lowest layer (flow dynamics), we distinguish routed users from nonrouted users. A distributed parameter model based on a nonlocal partial differential equation is introduced and analyzed. The second layer incorporates connected services (e.g., routing) and other applications used to optimize the local performance of the system. As inputs to those applications, we propose a third layer introducing the incentive design and global objectives, which are typically varying over the day depending on road and weather conditions, external events, etc. The high-level planning is handled on the fourth layer taking social long-term objectives into account. We illustrate the framework by considering its ability to model at two different levels. Specific to vehicular traffic, numerical examples enable us to demonstrate the links between the traffic network layer and the routing decision layer. With a second example on optimized freight transport, we then discuss the links between the cooperative control layer and the lower layers. The congestion pricing in Stockholm is used to illustrate how also the social planning layer can be incorporated in future mobility services.
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48. |
- Mabumba, E. D., et al.
(author)
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Widow inheritance and HIV/AIDS in rural Uganda
- 2007
-
In: Tropical Doctor. - : SAGE Publications. - 0049-4755 .- 1758-1133. ; 37:4, s. 229-231
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite current efforts to combat HlV/AlDS through behavioural change, ingrained socio-cultural practices such as widow inheritance in south-western Uganda has not changed. Low education, unemployment, dowry, widows' socioeconomic demands and the inheritor's greed for the deceased's wealth, influence widow inheritance. Voluntary counselling and testing is needed for the widows and their inheritors; formal dowry should be removed from marriage and widow inheritance stripped of its sexual component.
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49. |
- Mehdifar, Farhad, 1992-, et al.
(author)
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2-D Directed Formation Control Based on Bipolar Coordinates
- 2022
-
In: IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control. - : Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). - 0018-9286 .- 1558-2523. ; 68:7, s. 4175-4190
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This work proposes a novel 2-D formation control scheme for acyclic triangulated directed graphs (a class of minimally acyclic persistent graphs) based on bipolar coordinates with (almost) global convergence to the desired shape. Prescribed performance control is employed to devise a decentralized control law that avoids singularities and introduces robustness against external disturbances while ensuring predefined transient and steady-state performance for the closed-loop system. Furthermore, it is shown that the proposed formation control scheme can handle formation maneuvering, scaling, and orientation specifications simultaneously. Additionally, the proposed control law is implementable in agents’ arbitrarily oriented local coordinate frames using only low-cost onboard vision sensors, which are favorable for practical applications. Finally, a formation maneuvering simulation study verifies the proposed approach.
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50. |
- Munch, Marie Warrer, et al.
(author)
-
Higher vs lower doses of dexamethasone in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia (COVID STEROID 2) trial : Protocol and statistical analysis plan
- 2021
-
In: Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica. - : WILEY. - 0001-5172 .- 1399-6576. ; 65:6, s. 834-845
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in millions of deaths and overburdened healthcare systems worldwide. Systemic low-dose corticosteroids have proven clinical benefit in patients with severe COVID-19. Higher doses of corticosteroids are used in other inflammatory lung diseases and may offer additional clinical benefits in COVID-19. At present, the balance between benefits and harms of higher vs. lower doses of corticosteroids for patients with COVID-19 is unclear. Methods The COVID STEROID 2 trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-grouped, blinded, centrally randomised and stratified clinical trial assessing higher (12 mg) vs. lower (6 mg) doses of dexamethasone for adults with COVID-19 and severe hypoxia. We plan to enrol 1,000 patients in Denmark, Sweden, Switzerland and India. The primary outcome is days alive without life support (invasive mechanical ventilation, circulatory support or renal replacement therapy) at day 28. Secondary outcomes include serious adverse reactions at day 28; all-cause mortality at day 28, 90 and 180; days alive without life support at day 90; days alive and out of hospital at day 90; and health-related quality of life at day 180. The primary outcome will be analysed using the Kryger Jensen and Lange test adjusted for stratification variables and reported as adjusted mean differences and median differences. The full statistical analysis plan is outlined in this protocol. Discussion The COVID STEROID 2 trial will provide evidence on the optimal dosing of systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with severe hypoxia with important implications for patients, their relatives and society.
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