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1.
  • Kanai, M, et al. (author)
  • 2023
  • swepub:Mat__t
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  • Niemi, MEK, et al. (author)
  • 2021
  • swepub:Mat__t
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3.
  • van Leeuwen, F., et al. (author)
  • Gaia Data Release 1 : Open cluster astrometry: Performance, limitations, and future prospects
  • 2017
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 601
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Context. The first Gaia Data Release contains the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS). This is a subset of about 2 million stars for which, besides the position and photometry, the proper motion and parallax are calculated using Hipparcos and Tycho-2 positions in 1991.25 as prior information. Aims. We investigate the scientific potential and limitations of the TGAS component by means of the astrometric data for open clusters. Methods. Mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are derived taking into account the error correlations within the astrometric solutions for individual stars, an estimate of the internal velocity dispersion in the cluster, and, where relevant, the effects of the depth of the cluster along the line of sight. Internal consistency of the TGAS data is assessed. Results. Values given for standard uncertainties are still inaccurate and may lead to unrealistic unit-weight standard deviations of least squares solutions for cluster parameters. Reconstructed mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are generally in very good agreement with earlier Hipparcos-based determination, although the Gaia mean parallax for the Pleiades is a significant exception. We have no current explanation for that discrepancy. Most clusters are observed to extend to nearly 15 pc from the cluster centre, and it will be up to future Gaia releases to establish whether those potential cluster-member stars are still dynamically bound to the clusters. Conclusions. The Gaia DR1 provides the means to examine open clusters far beyond their more easily visible cores, and can provide membership assessments based on proper motions and parallaxes. A combined HR diagram shows the same features as observed before using the Hipparcos data, with clearly increased luminosities for older A and F dwarfs.
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  • Burstein, R., et al. (author)
  • Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
  • 2019
  • In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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11.
  • Kinyoki, DK, et al. (author)
  • Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
  • 2020
  • In: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 26:5, s. 750-759
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
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  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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  • Abbafati, Cristiana, et al. (author)
  • 2020
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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21.
  • Cruz, Raquel, et al. (author)
  • Novel genes and sex differences in COVID-19 severity
  • 2022
  • In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press. - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 31:22, s. 3789-3806
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Here, we describe the results of a genome-wide study conducted in 11 939 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive cases with an extensive clinical information that were recruited from 34 hospitals across Spain (SCOURGE consortium). In sex-disaggregated genome-wide association studies for COVID-19 hospitalization, genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) was crossed for variants in 3p21.31 and 21q22.11 loci only among males (P = 1.3 × 10−22 and P = 8.1 × 10−12, respectively), and for variants in 9q21.32 near TLE1 only among females (P = 4.4 × 10−8). In a second phase, results were combined with an independent Spanish cohort (1598 COVID-19 cases and 1068 population controls), revealing in the overall analysis two novel risk loci in 9p13.3 and 19q13.12, with fine-mapping prioritized variants functionally associated with AQP3 (P = 2.7 × 10−8) and ARHGAP33 (P = 1.3 × 10−8), respectively. The meta-analysis of both phases with four European studies stratified by sex from the Host Genetics Initiative (HGI) confirmed the association of the 3p21.31 and 21q22.11 loci predominantly in males and replicated a recently reported variant in 11p13 (ELF5, P = 4.1 × 10−8). Six of the COVID-19 HGI discovered loci were replicated and an HGI-based genetic risk score predicted the severity strata in SCOURGE. We also found more SNP-heritability and larger heritability differences by age (<60 or ≥60 years) among males than among females. Parallel genome-wide screening of inbreeding depression in SCOURGE also showed an effect of homozygosity in COVID-19 hospitalization and severity and this effect was stronger among older males. In summary, new candidate genes for COVID-19 severity and evidence supporting genetic disparities among sexes are provided.
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22.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (author)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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23.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (author)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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24.
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25.
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26.
  • Williamson, Alice, et al. (author)
  • Genome-wide association study and functional characterization identifies candidate genes for insulin-stimulated glucose uptake
  • 2023
  • In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Nature. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 55:6, s. 973-983
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Distinct tissue-specific mechanisms mediate insulin action in fasting and postprandial states. Previous genetic studies have largely focused on insulin resistance in the fasting state, where hepatic insulin action dominates. Here we studied genetic variants influencing insulin levels measured 2 h after a glucose challenge in >55,000 participants from three ancestry groups. We identified ten new loci (P < 5 × 10-8) not previously associated with postchallenge insulin resistance, eight of which were shown to share their genetic architecture with type 2 diabetes in colocalization analyses. We investigated candidate genes at a subset of associated loci in cultured cells and identified nine candidate genes newly implicated in the expression or trafficking of GLUT4, the key glucose transporter in postprandial glucose uptake in muscle and fat. By focusing on postprandial insulin resistance, we highlighted the mechanisms of action at type 2 diabetes loci that are not adequately captured by studies of fasting glycemic traits.
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27.
  • Beal, Jacob, et al. (author)
  • Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
  • 2020
  • In: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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28.
  • Stephens, Lucas, et al. (author)
  • Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use
  • 2019
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 365:6456, s. 897-902
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Humans began to leave lasting impacts on Earth’s surface starting 10,000 to 8000 years ago. Through a synthetic collaboration with archaeologists around the globe, Stephens et al. compiled a comprehensive picture of the trajectory of human land use worldwide during the Holocene (see the Perspective by Roberts). Hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists transformed the face of Earth earlier and to a greater extent than has been widely appreciated, a transformation that was essentially global by 3000 years before the present.Science, this issue p. 897; see also p. 865Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists by 3000 years ago, considerably earlier than the dates in the land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by more than 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked for 2000 yr B.P. and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth’s transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.
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29.
  • Broadaway, K Alaine, et al. (author)
  • Loci for insulin processing and secretion provide insight into type 2 diabetes risk.
  • 2023
  • In: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 110:2, s. 284-299
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Insulin secretion is critical for glucose homeostasis, and increased levels of the precursor proinsulin relative to insulin indicate pancreatic islet beta-cell stress and insufficient insulin secretory capacity in the setting of insulin resistance. We conducted meta-analyses of genome-wide association results for fasting proinsulin from 16 European-ancestry studies in 45,861 individuals. We found 36 independent signals at 30 loci (p value < 5 × 10-8), which validated 12 previously reported loci for proinsulin and ten additional loci previously identified for another glycemic trait. Half of the alleles associated with higher proinsulin showed higher rather than lower effects on glucose levels, corresponding to different mechanisms. Proinsulin loci included genes that affect prohormone convertases, beta-cell dysfunction, vesicle trafficking, beta-cell transcriptional regulation, and lysosomes/autophagy processes. We colocalized 11 proinsulin signals with islet expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) data, suggesting candidate genes, including ARSG, WIPI1, SLC7A14, and SIX3. The NKX6-3/ANK1 proinsulin signal colocalized with a T2D signal and an adipose ANK1 eQTL signal but not the islet NKX6-3 eQTL. Signals were enriched for islet enhancers, and we showed a plausible islet regulatory mechanism for the lead signal in the MADD locus. These results show how detailed genetic studies of an intermediate phenotype can elucidate mechanisms that may predispose one to disease.
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30.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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31.
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32.
  • Fernandes E Fernandes, José, et al. (author)
  • The conundrum of asymptomatic carotid stenosis-determinants of decision and evidence
  • 2020
  • In: Annals of Translational Medicine. - : AME Publishing Company. - 2305-5839 .- 2305-5847. ; 8:19
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Management of asymptomatic carotid disease continues to challenge medical practice and present evidence is often conflicting. Stroke is a significant burden in Public Health and 11% to 15% appear as first neurologic event associated with asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Randomized trials provided support for Guidelines and Recommendations to intervene on asymptomatic stenosis, but at a known cost of a high number of unnecessary operations. Conflicting evidence from natural history studies and the widespread use of proper medical management including risk factors control, lowering-lipid drugs and strict control of arterial hypertension have reduced the incidence of strokes associated to asymptomatic carotid disease challenging established practice. Need to identify vulnerable lesions prone to develop thromboembolic brain events and also vulnerable patients at a higher risk of stroke is necessary and essential to further improve effectiveness of our interventions. After review of published literature on natural history of asymptomatic carotid stenosis, diagnostic methods to identify plaque vulnerability and present-day results of both endarterectomy and stenting, a strategy for management of asymptomatic carotid stenosis is suggested aiming to reduce unnecessary interventions and effectively contribute to stroke prevention.
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33.
  • Georgiadou, Elisavet, et al. (author)
  • Potential Influence of Diet on Bomb-Pulse Dating of Human Plaque Samples
  • 2013
  • In: Radiocarbon. - : Cambridge University Press (CUP). - 0033-8222. ; 55:2-3, s. 874-884
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The radiocarbon concentration of different atherosclerotic plaque fragments obtained from 20 patients in Portugal, operated in 2000-2001, has been measured in order to define the year of plaque formation. A difference of 1.8-15 yr was observed, with the mean and median both 9 yr, between the bomb-pulse date estimated with the CALIBomb software and the operation date. Stable isotope (delta C-13 and delta N-15) analysis was also performed and provides insight to the diet of the subjects. The wide range of measured stable isotope values could indicate that the subjects' diet varied, including an abundance of marine foodstuffs. It could also mean a different isotope fractionation process for the different plaque fragments (cap, core, interface to media) and a possible difference in tissues in which the various fragments are formed. Analysis of delta C-13 and delta N-15 values of each patient separately revealed subjects considered more influenced by marine foodstuffs consumption.
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34.
  • Goncalves, Isabel, et al. (author)
  • Activation of calpain-1 in human carotid artery atherosclerotic lesions
  • 2009
  • In: BMC Cardiovascular Disorders. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2261. ; 9:26
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: In a previous study, we observed that oxidized low-density lipoprotein-induced death of endothelial cells was calpain-1-dependent. The purpose of the present paper was to study the possible activation of calpain in human carotid plaques, and to compare calpain activity in the plaques from symptomatic patients with those obtained from patients without symptoms. Methods: Human atherosclerotic carotid plaques (n = 29, 12 associated with symptoms) were removed by endarterectomy. Calpain activity and apoptosis were detected by performing immunohistochemical analysis and TUNEL assay on human carotid plaque sections. An antibody specific for calpain-proteolyzed alpha-fodrin was used on western blots. Results: We found that calpain was activated in all the plaques and calpain activity colocalized with apoptotic cell death. Our observation of autoproteolytic cleavage of the 80 kDa subunit of calpain-1 provided further evidence for enzyme activity in the plaque samples. When calpain activity was quantified, we found that plaques from symptomatic patients displayed significantly lower calpain activity compared with asymptomatic plaques. Conclusion: These novel results suggest that calpain-1 is commonly active in carotid artery atherosclerotic plaques, and that calpain activity is colocalized with cell death and inversely associated with symptoms.
  •  
35.
  • Goncalves, Isabel, et al. (author)
  • Activator protein-1 in carotid plaques is related to cerebrovascular symptoms and cholesteryl ester content
  • 2011
  • In: Cardiovascular pathology. - : Elsevier. - 1054-8807 .- 1879-1336. ; 20:1, s. 36-43
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Transcription factor activator protein-1 regulates genes involved in inflammation and repair. The aim of this study was to determine whether transcription factor activator protein-1 activity in carotid plaques is related to symptoms, lipid accumulation, or extracellular matrix composition. Methods: Twenty-eight atherosclerotic carotid plaques were removed by endarterectomy and divided into two groups based on the presence or absence of ipsilateral symptoms (b1 month ago). Activator protein-1 DNA binding activity was assessed, and subunit (c-Jun, JunD, JunB, c-Fos, FosB, Fra-1, Fra-2) protein levels analyzed by immunoblotting. Distribution of c-Jun in plaques was analyzed by immunohistochemistry. Results: Plaques associated with symptoms had increased activator protein-1 activity and increased expression of c-Jun and JunD, as compared to asymptomatic plaques. Fra-1 and Fra-2 were present in equal amounts in both groups, whereas JunB, FosB, and c-Fos were undetectable. Activator protein-1 activity correlated with cholesteryl ester and elastin in plaques and decreased with age. Activator protein-1 activity did not correlate with collagen, calcified tissue, or proteoglycan content. Conclusions: Activator protein-1 is increased in plaques associated with symptoms. The correlation between activator protein-1 and cholesteryl esters suggests that high activator protein-1 is a marker of plaque vulnerability. Activator protein-1 expression can also reflect the activation of repair processes.
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36.
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37.
  • Goncalves, Isabel, et al. (author)
  • Direct association between diet and the stability of human atherosclerotic plaque.
  • 2015
  • In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 5
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Mediterranean diet has been suggested to explain why coronary heart disease mortality is lower in southern than northern Europe. Dietary habits can be revealed by isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) measurement of carbon (δ(13)C) and nitrogen (δ(15)N) in biological tissues. To study if diet is associated with human plaque stability, atherosclerotic plaques from carotid endarterectomy on 56 patients (21 Portuguese and 35 Swedish) were analysed by IRMS and histology. Plaque components affecting rupture risk were measured. Swedish plaques had more apoptosis, lipids and larger cores, as well as fewer proliferating cells and SMC than the Portuguese, conferring the Swedish a more rupture-prone phenotype. Portuguese plaques contained higher δ(13)C and δ(15)N than the Swedish, indicating that Portuguese plaques were more often derived from marine food. Plaque δ(13)C correlated with SMC and proliferating cells, and inversely with lipids, core size, apoptosis. Plaque δ(15)N correlated with SMC and inversely with lipids, core size and apoptosis. This is the first observational study showing that diet is reflected in plaque components associated with its vulnerability. The Portuguese plaques composition is consistent with an increased marine food intake and those plaques are more stable than those from Swedish patients. Marine-derived food is associated with plaque stability.
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38.
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39.
  • Goncalves, Isabel, et al. (author)
  • Elastin- and Collagen-Rich Human Carotid Plaques Have Increased Levels of the Cysteine Protease Inhibitor Cystatin C.
  • 2008
  • In: Journal of Vascular Research. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0135 .- 1018-1172. ; 45:5, s. 395-401
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Cystatin C is a major inhibitor of the elastin- and collagen-degrading cysteine proteases and may therefore have an important role in preserving atherosclerotic plaque stability. In this study we analyzed the associations between human carotid plaque cystatin C expression and the plaque content of collagen and elastin. Methods: Thirty-one plaques were removed by endarterectomy and homogenized. Cystatin C levels were analyzed by densitometry of Western blots and elastin and collagen levels were determined colorimetrically. Results: The plaque content of cystatin C correlated with total elastin (r = 0.58, p = 0.001) and collagen (r = 0.50, p = 0.004), as well as with cross-linked forms of elastin (r = 0.42, p = 0.022) and collagen (r = 0.52, p = 0.003). Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated that cystatin C colocalized with elastin and collagen. No correlation was seen between cystatin C and the amount of degraded elastin or collagen in plaques. Conclusion: The positive correlation between cystatin C levels and collagen and elastin levels in plaques supports the notion that cystatin C plays an important role in maintaining atherosclerotic plaque stability. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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40.
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41.
  • Mavrina, E., et al. (author)
  • Multi-Omics Interdisciplinary Research Integration to Accelerate Dementia Biomarker Development (MIRIADE)
  • 2022
  • In: Frontiers in Neurology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-2295. ; 13
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Proteomics studies have shown differential expression of numerous proteins in dementias but have rarely led to novel biomarker tests for clinical use. The Marie Curie MIRIADE project is designed to experimentally evaluate development strategies to accelerate the validation and ultimate implementation of novel biomarkers in clinical practice, using proteomics-based biomarker development for main dementias as experimental case studies. We address several knowledge gaps that have been identified in the field. First, there is the technology-translation gap of different technologies for the discovery (e.g., mass spectrometry) and the large-scale validation (e.g., immunoassays) of biomarkers. In addition, there is a limited understanding of conformational states of biomarker proteins in different matrices, which affect the selection of reagents for assay development. In this review, we aim to understand the decisions taken in the initial steps of biomarker development, which is done via an interim narrative update of the work of each ESR subproject. The results describe the decision process to shortlist biomarkers from a proteomics to develop immunoassays or mass spectrometry assays for Alzheimer's disease, Lewy body dementia, and frontotemporal dementia. In addition, we explain the approach to prepare the market implementation of novel biomarkers and assays. Moreover, we describe the development of computational protein state and interaction prediction models to support biomarker development, such as the prediction of epitopes. Lastly, we reflect upon activities involved in the biomarker development process to deduce a best-practice roadmap for biomarker development.
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42.
  • Merritt, Melissa A., et al. (author)
  • Investigation of Dietary Factors and Endometrial Cancer Risk Using a Nutrient-wide Association Study Approach in the EPIC and Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and NHSII
  • 2015
  • In: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 24:2, s. 466-471
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Data on the role of dietary factors in endometrial cancer development are limited and inconsistent. We applied a "nutrient-wide association study" approach to systematically evaluate dietary risk associations for endometrial cancer while controlling for multiple hypothesis tests using the false discovery rate (FDR) and validating the results in an independent cohort. We evaluated endometrial cancer risk associations for dietary intake of 84 foods and nutrients based on dietary questionnaires in three prospective studies, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; N = 1,303 cases) followed by validation of nine foods/nutrients (FDR <= 0.10) in the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII; N = 1,531 cases). Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In multivariate adjusted comparisons of the extreme categories of intake at baseline, coffee was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (EPIC, median intake 750 g/day vs. 8.6; HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.97, P-trend = 0.09; NHS/NHSII, median intake 1067 g/day vs. none; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70-0.96, P-trend = 0.04). Eight other dietary factors that were associated with endometrial cancer risk in the EPIC study (total fat, monounsaturated fat, carbohydrates, phosphorus, butter, yogurt, cheese, and potatoes) were not confirmed in the NHS/NHSII. Our findings suggest that coffee intake may be inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk. Further data are needed to confirm these findings and to examine the mechanisms linking coffee intake to endometrial cancer risk to develop improved prevention strategies. (C)2015 AACR.
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43.
  • Nielsen, Rasmus J., et al. (author)
  • Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation
  • 2018
  • In: Fish and Fisheries. - : Wiley. - 1467-2960 .- 1467-2979. ; 19:1, s. 1-29
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Marine ecosystems evolve under many interconnected and area-specific pressures. To fulfil society's intensifying and diversifying needs while ensuring ecologically sustainable development, more effective marine spatial planning and broader-scope management of marine resources is necessary. Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models (IEEFMs) of marine systems are needed to evaluate impacts and sustainability of potential management actions and understand, and anticipate ecological, economic and social dynamics at a range of scales from local to national and regional. To make these models most effective, it is important to determine how model characteristics and methods of communicating results influence the model implementation, the nature of the advice that can be provided and the impact on decisions taken by managers. This article presents a global review and comparative evaluation of 35 IEEFMs applied to marine fisheries and marine ecosystem resources to identify the characteristics that determine their usefulness, effectiveness and implementation. The focus is on fully integrated models that allow for feedbacks between ecological and human processes although not all the models reviewed achieve that. Modellers must invest more time to make models user friendly and to participate in management fora where models and model results can be explained and discussed. Such involvement is beneficial to all parties, leading to improvement of models and more effective implementation of advice, but demands substantial resources which must be built into the governance process. It takes time to develop effective processes for using IEEFMs requiring a long-term commitment to integrating multidisciplinary modelling advice into management decision-making.
  •  
44.
  • Poorter, Lourens, et al. (author)
  • Wet and dry tropical forests show opposite successional pathways in wood density but converge over time
  • 2019
  • In: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-334X. ; 3:6, s. 928-934
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Tropical forests are converted at an alarming rate for agricultural use and pastureland, but also regrow naturally through secondary succession. For successful forest restoration, it is essential to understand the mechanisms of secondary succession. These mechanisms may vary across forest types, but analyses across broad spatial scales are lacking. Here, we analyse forest recovery using 1,403 plots that differ in age since agricultural abandonment from 50 sites across the Neotropics. We analyse changes in community composition using species-specific stem wood density (WD), which is a key trait for plant growth, survival and forest carbon storage. In wet forest, succession proceeds from low towards high community WD (acquisitive towards conservative trait values), in line with standard successional theory. However, in dry forest, succession proceeds from high towards low community WD (conservative towards acquisitive trait values), probably because high WD reflects drought tolerance in harsh early successional environments. Dry season intensity drives WD recovery by influencing the start and trajectory of succession, resulting in convergence of the community WD over time as vegetation cover builds up. These ecological insights can be used to improve species selection for reforestation. Reforestation species selected to establish a first protective canopy layer should, among other criteria, ideally have a similar WD to the early successional communities that dominate under the prevailing macroclimatic conditions.
  •  
45.
  • Scott, Robert A., et al. (author)
  • An Expanded Genome-Wide Association Study of Type 2 Diabetes in Europeans
  • 2017
  • In: Diabetes. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0012-1797 .- 1939-327X. ; 66:11, s. 2888-2902
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • To characterize type 2 diabetes (T2D)-associated variation across the allele frequency spectrum, we conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association data from 26,676 T2D case and 132,532 control subjects of European ancestry after imputation using the 1000 Genomes multiethnic reference panel. Promising association signals were followed up in additional data sets (of 14,545 or 7,397 T2D case and 38,994 or 71,604 control subjects). We identified 13 novel T2D-associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), including variants near the GLP2R, GIP, and HLA-DQA1 genes. Our analysis brought the total number of independent T2D associations to 128 distinct signals at 113 loci. Despite substantially increased sample size and more complete coverage of low-frequency variation, all novel associations were driven by common single nucleotide variants. Credible sets of potentially causal variants were generally larger than those based on imputation with earlier reference panels, consistent with resolution of causal signals to common risk haplotypes. Stratification of T2D-associated loci based on T2D-related quantitative trait associations revealed tissue-specific enrichment of regulatory annotations in pancreatic islet enhancers for loci influencing insulin secretion and in adipocytes, monocytes, and hepatocytes for insulin action-associated loci. These findings highlight the predominant role played by common variants of modest effect and the diversity of biological mechanisms influencing T2D pathophysiology.
  •  
46.
  • Olivares, Alberto Ignacio Olivares, et al. (author)
  • Epidemiology of enteric virus infections in children living in the Amazon region
  • 2021
  • In: International Journal of Infectious Diseases. - : Elsevier Science Ltd. - 1201-9712 .- 1878-3511. ; 108, s. 494-502
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objectives: To verify the frequency of viruses causing acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in association with the histo-blood group antigen (HBGA) and Rotarix (TM) vaccination coverage in children from the Amazon region. Design: Fecal and saliva samples were collected from children with AGE (n = 485) and acute respiratory infection (ARI) (n = 249) clinical symptoms. Rotavirus A (RVA), norovirus, human adenovirus (HAdV), and sapovirus (SaV) were verified in feces by molecular detection. Saliva samples were used for HBGA phenotyping/FUT3 genotyping. Blood group types, clinical aspects and Rotarix (TM) RVA vaccination data were recorded. Results: Norovirus remained the most prevalently detected cause of AGE (38%, 184/485 and ARI 21.3%, 53/249). High HAdV frequencies were observed in AGE children (28.6%, 139/485) and ARI children (37.3%, 93/249). RVA was the third most prevalent virus causing AGE (22.7%, 110/485 and ARI 19.3%, 48/249) and a low RV1 coverage (61%, 448/734) was verified. The SaV frequencies were lower (7.2%, 35/485 for AGE and 6.8%, 17/249 for ARI). Secretor children were HBGA susceptible to HAdV infection (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.3; P = 0.04) but not to RVA, norovirus or SaV infection. Conclusions: Norovirus could be considered the main etiological agent of AGE. No association was verified for HBGA susceptibility to RVA, norovirus and SaV. Secretor children showed a slight susceptibility to HAdV infection and the Le (a-b-) heterogeneous SNPs on the FUT3 gene. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.
  •  
47.
  • Pavliuk, Mariia V., et al. (author)
  • Hydrated Electron Generation by Excitation of Copper Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance
  • 2019
  • In: The Journal of Physical Chemistry Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1948-7185. ; 10:8, s. 1743-1749
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Hydrated electrons are important in radiation chemistry and charge transfer reactions, with applications that include chemical damage of DNA, catalysis, and signaling. Conventionally, hydrated electrons are produced by pulsed radiolysis, sonolysis, two-ultraviolet-photon laser excitation of liquid water, or photodetachment of suitable electron donors. Here we report a method for the generation of hydrated electrons via single-visible-photon excitation of localized surface plasmon resonances (LSPRs) of supported sub-3 nm copper nanoparticles in contact with water. Only excitations at the LSPR maximum resulted in the formation of hydrated electrons, suggesting that plasmon excitation plays a crucial role in promoting electron transfer from the nanoparticle into the solution. The reactivity of the hydrated electrons was confirmed via proton reduction and concomitant H-2 evolution in the presence of a Ru/TiO2 catalyst.
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48.
  •  
49.
  • Pearman, Peter B., et al. (author)
  • Monitoring of species' genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts
  • 2024
  • In: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-334X. ; 8:2, s. 267-281
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity. Comparing data on genetic monitoring efforts across Europe with the distributions of areas at species' climatic niche margins, the authors show that monitoring efforts should be expanded to populations at trailing niche margins to include genetic variation that may prove important for adaptation to ongoing climate warming.
  •  
50.
  • Pertl, Leonhard, et al. (author)
  • Exports and Productivity : Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries
  • 2007
  • In: Policy Research Working Papers. - New York : World Bank. - 1813-9450.
  • Reports (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The authors use comparable micro level panel data for 14 countries and a set of identically specified empirical models to investigate the relationship between exports and productivity. The overall results are in line with the big picture that is by now familiar from the literature: Exporters are more productive than non-exporters when observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for, and these exporter productivity premia tend to increase with the share of exports in total sales; there is strong evidence in favour of self-selection of more productive firms into export markets, but nearly no evidence in favour of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. The authors document that the exporter premia differ considerably across countries in identically specified empirical models. In a meta-analysis of their results the authors find that countries that are more open and have more effective government report higher productivity premia. However, the level of development per se does not appear to be an explanation for the observed cross-country differences.
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