| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 2. |
- Bergman, Klara, et al.
(author)
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The relationship between timing of development and bus rapid transit
- 2017
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In: Proceedings of the 3rd ACM SIGSPATIAL Workshop on Smart Cities and Urban Analytics, UrbanGIS 2017. - New York, NY, USA : Association for Computing Machinery (ACM). - 9781450354950
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The city of Curitiba in southern Brazil is considered to be the cradle of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Curitiba has a population of around 1.9 million people and has a higher development index than Brazil in general. A master plan approved in the middle of the 1960’s has guided the development of the city in a Transit Oriented Development (TOD) direction by zoning for high development densities close to the five BRT trunk lines in so-called structural development in Curitiba.The objective was to examine if the BRT system could have been a motivator for property development, and if so, to what extend. This paper presents a perspective to examine property development: Timing of Development, as the relationship between the number of years after construction of BRT lines buildings were constructed, and the distances of these buildings from the BRT lines. Results from the entire BRT system showed that a greater "time lag" of property development following BRT development also meant that the property in question was located further away from a BRT line, suggesting that areas close to the BRT were popular.
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| 3. |
- Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin, et al.
(author)
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Examining the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints on leisure activity participation in different seasons of the year
- 2016
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In: Transportation. - : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0049-4488 .- 1572-9435. ; , s. 1-25
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using multi-day, multi-period travel diaries data of 56 days (four waves of two-week diaries) for 67 individuals in Stockholm, this study aims to examine the effects of out-of-home and in-home constraints (e.g. teleworking, studying at home, doing the laundry, cleaning and taking care of other household member[s]) on individuals’ day-to-day leisure activity participation decisions in four different seasons. This study also aims to explore the effects of various types of working schedules (fixed, shift, partial- and full-flexible) on individuals’ decisions to participate in day-to-day leisure activities. A pooled model (56 days) and wave-specific models (14 days in each wave) are estimated by using dynamic ordered Probit models. The effects of various types of working schedules are estimated by using 28 days of two waves’ data. The results show that an individual’s leisure activity participation decision is significantly influenced by out-of-home work durations but not influenced by in-home constraints, regardless of any seasons. Individuals with shift working hours engage less in day-to-day leisure activities than other workers’ types in both spring and summer seasons. The thermal indicator significantly affects individuals’ leisure activity participation decisions during the autumn season. Individuals exhibit routine behaviour characterized by repeated decisions in participating in day-to-day leisure activities that can last up to 14 days, regardless of any seasons.
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| 4. |
- Ahmad Termida, Nursitihazlin, et al.
(author)
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Observing dynamic behavioural responses due to the extension of a tram line by using panel survey
- 2016
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In: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 86, s. 78-95
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using a four-wave panel survey of individuals' trips and psychological attributes collected among residents along a new tram line extension in the city of Stockholm, Sweden, this study aims to investigate factors that determine the individuals' learning and decision-making processes in using a new transport option. This includes investigating which group of travellers have used the new tram extension earlier than others, and integrated the tram extension as a part of their daily travel patterns. This paper also describes the design and construction of the four-wave panel data collection, which was collected from two weeks before and up to seven months after the opening of the new option. Descriptive analysis shows that within a seven-month period, 79% of the respondents tried the new tram extension but only 14.9% of them adopted the new option as their daily travel mode. During the observed period, about 49.3% of the respondents migrated between travel modes for non-discretionary trips. Further multivariate analysis shows that middle-income travellers and travellers who owned car(s) used the new tram extension earlier than others. The effect of past experience on the current use of the tram extension on a day-to-day basis was also examined by using a mixed logit model with panel data. The purpose of the model is to examine whether individuals' daily experiences with the new tram extension that result from repeated previous choices would affect their decisions to maintain using the new option in subsequent waves.
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| 5. |
- Eliasson, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal
- 2020
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In: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 141, s. 262-276
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- When benefits of proposed infrastructure investments are forecasted, residential location is usually treated as fixed, since very few operational transport models are able to forecast residential relocation. It has been argued that this may constitute a source of serious error or bias when evaluating and comparing the benefits of proposed infrastructure investments. We use a stylized simulation model of a metropolitan region to compare calculated benefits for a large number of infrastructure investments with and without taking changes in residential location into account. In particular, we explore the changes in project selection when assembling an optimal project portfolio under a budget constraint. The simulation model includes endogenous land prices and demand for residential land, heterogeneous preferences and wage offers across residents, and spillover mechanisms which affect wage rates in zones. The model is calibrated to generate realistic travel patterns and demand elasticities. Our results indicate that ignoring residential relocation has a small but appreciable effect on the selected project portfolio, but only a very small effect on achieved total benefits.
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| 6. |
- Fosgerau, Mogens, et al.
(author)
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Commuting for meetings
- 2014
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In: Journal of Urban Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0094-1190 .- 1095-9068. ; 81, s. 104-113
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Urban congestion causes travel times to exhibit considerable variability, which leads to coordination problems when people have to meet. We analyze a game for the timing of a meeting between two players who must each complete a trip of random duration to reach the meeting, which does not begin until both are present. Players prefer to depart later and also to arrive sooner, provided they do not have to wait for the other player. We find a unique Nash equilibrium, and a continuum of Pareto optima that are strictly better than the Nash equilibrium for both players. Pareto optima may be implemented as Nash equilibria by penalty or compensation schemes.
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| 7. |
- Franklin, Joel P.
(author)
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The Downs–Thomson Paradox
- 2021
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In: International Encyclopedia of Transportation: Volume 1-7. - : Elsevier BV. ; , s. 490-495
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The Downs–Thomson Paradox explains a situation where, in a network with a parallel roadway and public transport line, an expansion of the roadway can lead to a worsening of travel times both for cars and for public transport passengers. This situation arises because of an interaction between the roadway, which operates at decreasing returns to scale, with the public transport service, which operates at increasing returns to scale. The paradox is essentially an extension of the principle of induced demand, or the “Iron Law of Congestion,” in which an isolated roadway, when improved, leads to more travelers using the roadway until congestion returns to its previous levels. The Downs–Thomson Paradox has been demonstrated analytically and reproduced in simulated laboratory settings. However, no real-world experiment has yet confirmed its existence due to confounding factors. Still, the Paradox serves as a warning that capacity increases cannot be assumed to reduce travel times.
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| 8. |
- Franklin, Joel P., et al.
(author)
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Travel Time Reliability for Stockholm Roadways Modeling Mean Lateness Factor
- 2009
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In: Transportation Research Record. - : SAGE Publications. - 0361-1981 .- 2169-4052. ; :2134, s. 106-113
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In recent years, there has been an increasing awareness that travel time reliability, apart from expected travel time, is an important component of cost-benefit analysis, especially during congested traffic conditions. A common measure of travel time reliability is standard deviation, and it has been shown that this is a theoretically sound measure under scheduling constraints, provided that the mean lateness factor is known. Hence, in applied cost-benefit analyses, one will need both the standard deviation and the mean lateness factor. These analyses would be particularly simple if the mean lateness were constant across time of day and for different routes chosen. A study was done to explore how the mean lateness varies and how its variations can be approximated. With the use of travel time measurements on individual links, it is shown how mean lateness varies considerably across time and space. It is shown that mean lateness exhibits a time-varying pattern depending on the characteristics of congestion on the link. It is also shown that the location of the link in the network is a significant determinant. The resulting model for mean lateness represents a considerable improvement over existing practice, where the mean lateness is implicitly assumed constant, yet a large portion of its variation remains unexplained. The model is useful for informing future research but is of less value for predicting the mean lateness in broad applied settings.
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| 9. |
- Franklin, Joel P., et al.
(author)
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Traveller Responses to the Stockholm Congestion Pricing Trial: Who Changed, Where Did They Go, and What Did It Cost Them?
- 2016
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In: Travel Demand Management and Road User Pricing. - : Taylor and Francis. ; , s. 215-238
-
Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Among transport economists and traffic planners, congestion pricing has long been advocated as an efficient means to reduce road congestion. Yet, up until recent years, the idea had rarely been implemented, with Singapore and Trondheim the only examples of congestion pricing systems that vary by time of day.2 In the last few years, however, new congestion pricing systems have been introduced in various forms, with London and Stockholm being the most ambitious systems in the sense that the congestion charges apply to the entire urban core. With the Stockholm system now in place, we have a chance to measure some real effects of congestion pricing on daily travel patterns.
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| 10. |
- Langbroek, Joram Hendrik, et al.
(author)
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Changing towards electric vehicle use in greater Stockholm
- 2017
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In: European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. - : Editorial Board EJTIR. - 1567-7133 .- 1567-7141. ; 17:3, s. 306-329
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper studies electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Greater Stockholm in Sweden using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM) and the Protection Motivation Theory as a framework and considers socio-cognitive, behavioural and socio-economic attributes that may influence the process towards electric vehicle use. TTM considers behavioural change as a process consisting of five stages-of-change rather than as an event. Some key findings were made: (1) from the earlier to the later stages-of-change, the attitude towards EVs becomes more positive, the knowledge about EVs increases and the self-efficacy is consistently increasing. (2) The threat appraisal and response efficacy of EVs increase from stage to stage in the stages prior to the actual change but have a lower level for the stages after the change. (3) The explanatory power of regression models modelling both pre-contemplation and all stages-of-change increases significantly when incorporating socio-cognitive variables such as self-efficacy, threat-appraisal, response efficacy and attitudes towards EVs. (4) The modal share of the car is consistently increasing throughout the stages-of-change. The results indicate that policy measures aiming at increasing knowledge and self-efficacy of car drivers related to EV use can stimulate electric vehicle adoption. Also, the relative advantages of EVs for car drivers should get more attention rather than only emphasizing the environmental advantages.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Langbroek, Joram Hendrik Maarten, et al.
(author)
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A stated adaptation instrument for studying travel patterns after electric vehicle adoption
- 2018
-
In: Transportation Research Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 2352-1465. ; 32, s. 464-473
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes and evaluates a stated adaptation instrument to investigate the effects of a transition towards electric vehicles on travel behaviour. The respondents were equipped with an “imaginary” electric vehicle with a specific range and were asked whether they wanted to make changes in an activity-travel schedule they had previously registered. It has been found that electric vehicle use may increase car use, and that activities are likely to be cancelled in case of problems with range limitations. In this paper, the validity, reliability and practical implementation of this stated adaptation experiment are discussed.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Langbroek, Joram H. M., et al.
(author)
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Electric vehicle rental and electric vehicle adoption
- 2019
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In: Research in Transportation Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0739-8859 .- 1875-7979. ; 73, s. 72-82
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This case study describes the project Elbilsiandet (The Electric Vehicle Country) in Gotland, Sweden, where the island Gotland is made "ready for electric vehicles" by providing a network of charging infrastructure and electric vehicle rental during several summer seasons. The influence of the electric vehicle (EV) rental scheme on the process towards electric vehicle adoption is investigated using the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM). Moreover, the travel patterns of electric rental cars are compared with those of conventional rental cars. The main results of this study are the following: Firstly, people renting an EV are on average closer to electric vehicle adoption than people renting a conventional vehicle. Secondly, people who rent an EV are at the time of rental associated with more positive attitudes towards EVs, have more knowledge about EVs and would feel more secure driving an EV. Thirdly, EV-rental does not seem to have a large additional effect on the stage-of-change towards EV-adoption of the participants. Lastly, the driving patterns of EVs do not seem to indicate serious limitations regarding driving distance, parking time and the destinations that have been visited, as compared to the driving patterns of conventional rental cars.
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| 15. |
- Langbroek, Joram Hendrik Maarten, et al.
(author)
-
Electric vehicle users and their travel patterns in Greater Stockholm
- 2017
-
In: Transportation Research Part D. - : Elsevier. - 1361-9209 .- 1879-2340. ; 52, s. 98-111
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Electric vehicles (EVs) show promise for improving the environmental sustainability of the transport system since, as opposed to conventional vehicles, they have no tailpipe exhaust gas emissions. The use of EVs can also decrease the amount of greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the electricity has been generated with renewable energy sources. However, the scale of projected benefits can be questioned since the travel patterns of car drivers may not stay the same after changing to EVs, due to various factors such as higher investment costs, lower operation costs and general perceptions associated with electric vehicles. In this study, the travel patterns of both electric vehicle users and conventional vehicle users in Greater Stockholm are compared with regard to the number of trips made and the modal share of the car in the total travel distance. For this purpose, a one-day travel diary carried out in autumn 2014 has been used. The main findings are the following: firstly, the EV is generally perceived by respondents to be more environmentally friendly than public transport modes. Secondly, EV users make significantly more trips than their non-EV using counterparts, according to their one-day travel diaries and controlling for socio-economic and situational variables. Thirdly, EV users choose the car for a significantly larger percentage of their total travel distance than conventional vehicle users. Those observations would suggest a rebound effect, as EVs still consume a considerable amount of energy and contribute to other external effects such as congestion.
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| 16. |
- Langbroek, Joram H.M., et al.
(author)
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How would you change your travel patterns if you used an electric vehicle? A stated adaptation approach
- 2018
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In: Travel Behaviour & Society. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-367X .- 2214-3688. ; 13, s. 144-154
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The real environmental benefits of a transition towards EVs highly depend on the future EV-users’ activity-travel patterns adapted to their new vehicle’s capacity. Despite its importance, the impact of this adaptation is largely unknown. In this study, a stated adaptation experiment has been conducted to investigate changes of travel patterns as a result of range limitations or the opposite, abundant range. The basis for this experiment is a one-day travel diary among active drivers in Greater Stockholm. The main findings of this study are the following: (1) Drivers facing range limitations are more likely to make use of alternative means of transport (mainly public transport) if the travel time difference between car and public transport is low and if not many transfers are needed for the public transport trip. (2) In case of (perceived) range limitations, shopping trips and trips visiting friends or relatives are more likely to be cancelled than working trips. (3) The main trip purpose of additional trips in case of sufficient EV range is shopping. (4) A non-negligible number of public transport trips are likely to be replaced by EV. Shortly, the effects of the transition towards electric vehicle use on personal mobility seem to depend on the availability of accessible substitutes. Besides that, a rebound effect has been observed in this study.
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| 17. |
- Langbroek, Joram H.M.
(author)
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Understanding processes and travel behaviour changes connected to electric vehicle adoption
- 2018
-
Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The use of electric vehicles (EVs) has the potential to increase the sustainability of the transport system, especially in case of unchanged or decreased car use, eco-driving and charging during hours of low electricity demand in case of an electricity generation mix with a large share of renewable energy sources. However, EVs still use much energy and EV-use does not solve problems regarding accessibility, social equity, traffic safety and has only a limited beneficial effect on liveability (e.g. through decreased noise). The focus of this study is on the process of the transition from conventional vehicle use to electric vehicle use. Economic and socio-psychological theories have been used in order to get more insight into the motivations for people to start using EVs, the process of EV-adoption and travel behaviour, as well as the interaction between car users, the electric vehicle and policy measures. The aim is to better understand the ongoing transition process to EV-use and the potential behavioural implications of this transition. This study is largely based on a two-wave survey that has been deployed among active car drivers in the metropolitan area of Stockholm, Sweden. In total, 294 respondents have participated in the first wave of the study, while 269 respondents have completed all waves. Besides this survey, one paper of this study is based on another two-wave survey that has been deployed among people renting a car on the island of Gotland, Sweden. In total, 158 respondents have participated in the first wave of this study, while 69 respondents have completed all waves. Electric vehicle adoption implies a considerable initial investment and a behavioural change because of range limitations. Therefore, the change towards electric vehicle use could be considered as a process rather than an event. Using the Transtheoretical Model of Change (Paper 1), it has been iv found that certain socio-economical, behavioural and socio-psychological determinants are correlated with being in a more advanced stage-of-change. Knowledge levels and self-efficacy for electric vehicle use are increasing from stage to stage. The level of response efficacy increases from stage to stage for the non-EV users, but is slightly lower for the group of EV-users that might have a more realistic view of the range and energy use of EVs. There is no direct effect between environmental awareness and stage-of-change, but there is an indirect effect through goal intention to decrease one’s CO2-emissions. In this study (Paper 2), it has also been found that the respondents using EVs make more trips on average and that they also use the car for a larger share of their total distance travelled. The differences in the number of trips and modal share of the car are statistically significant even after controlling for socio-economic variables, which might imply a rebound effect. The risk for a rebound effect is also explainable because of the fact that the marginal cost of EV-use is considerably lower than the marginal cost of conventional car use. Another potential reason for increased car use is the extremely good image that the EV has. It has been found that the EV is perceived to be more environmentally friendly than conventional cars, which was expected, but also more environmentally friendly than public transport modes. Policy makers in many countries provide incentives to make EVs more attractive. Using a stated choice experiment (Paper 3), the effects of several potential policy incentives on EV-adoption has been investigated in this study. Both purchase-based benefits and use-based benefits have a significant positive effect on EV-adoption. Purchase-based benefits intervene with the high investment costs of EVs, while use-based benefits intervene with the already low marginal costs of EV-use. Use-benefits, incentives that are given to EV-users in some countries, such as free parking or access to bus lanes, further decreases the marginal cost of EV-use, increasing the risk for rebound effects. On the other hand, the study shows v that use-based benefits do have a large effect on EV-adoption. Including the stage-of-change of the respondents, EV-adoption rates increase in the stated choice experiment for people in more advanced stages-of-change. However, the price-sensitivity decreases for people in more advanced stages-of-change. Also people with a high self-efficacy and response efficacy are more likely to adopt EVs. Seen from a policy perspective, it might be more efficient to provide use-benefits rather than purchase based benefits. However, there is a risk for a rebound effect because of the decrease of the already low marginal costs of EV-use. Because current electric vehicle users are a small part of the population, future EV-use has also been investigated using stated adaptation methods. Two stated adaptation experiments have been carried out: one concentrating on travel patterns and one on charging patterns. The first stated adaptation experiment (Paper 4/5) was carried out among all respondents, taking the initial travel patterns registered in a one-day travel diary as a starting point. The respondents got scenarios with a kilometre budget that was based on the travel distances during the one-day travel diary day. In case of shortage of range or perceived range limitations, different behavioural alterations have been selected, among trip cancellation, destination change and change of travel mode towards alternative travel modes were most frequently selected. Non-mandatory activities were more likely to be cancelled, as well as trips for which the public transport alternative is rather unattractive in terms of travel time and number of transfers. In case of abundant range and an electricity cost that is five times lower than the fuel cost per kilometre, a non-negligible number of additional trips has been reported, predominantly leisure trips and shopping trips. Besides, for a number of trips, a modal shift “towards the car” has been registered for a non-negligible number of trips, the majority of them being trips to work or school which are often carried out during rush vi hour. So, the existence of a rebound effect under the condition of abundant range has been confirmed. Charging behaviour has a significant effect on the sustainability of EV-use. The timing of charging events can increase peaks in electricity demand or fill the valleys of electricity demand. In this study (Paper 6), it has been investigated when people prefer to start a four-hour charging event and how temporal price differentiation influences these preferences. Based on this study, it has been found that the afternoon rush hour is by far the most preferred charging time if the price for charging events is fixed throughout the day. However, temporal price differentiation significantly affects preferred charging time. Both the existence and degree of temporal price differentiation matters: different behavioural responses were observed using two different price differentiation schemes: a high level of price differentiation causes the majority of charging events to move to night time. In the final paper of this thesis (Paper 7), it has been investigated whether electric vehicle rental affects the process of electric vehicle adoption as described in Paper 1. Using a before-after study, the long-term effects of renting an EV on the Swedish island of Gotland has been investigated. The results of this study show that EV-rental does not seem to significantly affect the stage-of-change towards EV-adoption. However, there seems to be a selection effect: the EV is more likely to be selected as a rental car if the rental guest is in a more advanced stage-of-change. Besides, the driving patterns of EV rental cars do not differ much from those of ICEV rental cars, which is an indicator of EVs being adequate for EV-rental in Gotland.
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| 18. |
- Langbroek, Joram Hendrik Maarten, et al.
(author)
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When do you charge your electric vehicle? : A stated adaptation approach
- 2017
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In: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 108, s. 565-573
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A large scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) is likely to contribute to a more sustainable transport system. However, charging EVs will increase the load on the electricity network. The maximum load may be minimized by coordinating the timing of charging activities, in order to spread electricity demand more equally over the course of a day. In this study, based on a stated-choice experiment, the effects of two different temporal price differentiation strategies on stated charging time are investigated, including socio-demographic, behavioural and socio-psychological variables. In a situation without charging time coordination, a peak in charging events is likely to occur during the early evening. Temporal price differentiation has a significant influence on charging time and in particular the level of price differentiation matters. The likelihood to change charging time differs and different alternative time slots are chosen when comparing high to low levels of price differentiation. People that have more knowledge about EVs have a higher chance to change their charging time, whereas people that have the tendency to plan their trips long time beforehand are less likely to adjust their charging time in the scenarios with temporal price differentiation.
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| 19. |
- Naqavi, Fatemeh, 1991-, et al.
(author)
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Green Vehicles’ Responses to an Expiring Congestion Toll Exemption : Findings from a Natural Experiment in Stockholm, Sweden
- 2023
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In: Findings. - : Network Design Lab - Transport Findings. - 2652-8800.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Stockholm established time-varying congestion pricing in 2007, and adopted a toll exemption as a temporary incentive for green vehicles (GVs) that ended in 2012. We examine the behavioral effects of phasing out the exemption by studying the change in cordon crossing events for GV morning commuters between May 2012 and May 2013, with a random sample of conventional vehicles (CVs) as control. The results suggest i) a significant drop in the total number of crossings; ii) a slight shift towards later journeys in the morning; and iii) a reduction in the ratio of peak-toll period crossings to other ones.
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| 20. |
- Termida, Nursitihazlin Ahmad, et al.
(author)
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Understanding seasonal variation in individual's activity participation and trip generation by using four consecutive two-week travel diary
- 2018
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In: Travel Behaviour & Society. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2214-367X .- 2214-3688. ; 12, s. 52-63
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper explores the interactions between travel demand, time allocation and mode choice in different seasons by jointly modeling the work and/or study, routine and leisure activity-travel engagements of 67 individuals in Stockholm, Sweden. A longitudinal panel two-week travel diary data collected in four consecutive waves over a span of seven months period that covers all four different seasons; autumn, winter, spring and summer, were analysed by using simultaneous Tobit models. The model was applied to explore the interactions among each activity-travel indicator, and individuals' unique characteristics and endogeneity in activity-travel engagements between different seasons were also considered in the model system. The results of models reveal clear trade-offs between mandatory activities (work and/or study) and non-mandatory activities (routine and leisure), regardless of any seasons, although the magnitudes vary between seasons. There is also a positive mutual endogeneity relationship between number of trips and activity duration within the same activity type. The trade-offs between work and/or study trips towards routine and leisure trips are larger in winter and spring respectively, than in other seasons. It is also found that mode effects on travel time for conducting mandatory activity are much larger in spring than in other seasons. However, the effects of public transport and slow modes on travel time for leisure activities are much larger in summer than in other seasons.
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