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1.	Reifarth, R., et al. (author) Nuclear astrophysics with radioactive ions at FAIR 2016 In: Journal of Physics: Conference Series. - : IOP Publishing. - 1742-6588 .- 1742-6596. ; 665:1 Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract The nucleosynthesis of elements beyond iron is dominated by neutron captures in the s and r processes. However, 32 stable, proton-rich isotopes cannot be formed during those processes, because they are shielded from the s-process flow and r-process beta-decay chains. These nuclei are attributed to the p and rp process. For all those processes, current research in nuclear astrophysics addresses the need for more precise reaction data involving radioactive isotopes. Depending on the particular reaction, direct or inverse kinematics, forward or time-reversed direction are investigated to determine or at least to constrain the desired reaction cross sections. The Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR) will offer unique, unprecedented opportunities to investigate many of the important reactions. The high yield of radioactive isotopes, even far away from the valley of stability, allows the investigation of isotopes involved in processes as exotic as the r or rp processes.
2.	Altstadt, S.G., et al. (author) B-13,B-14(n,gamma) via Coulomb Dissociation for Nucleosynthesis towards the r-Process 2014 In: Nuclear Data Sheets. - : Elsevier BV. - 1095-9904 .- 0090-3752. ; 120, s. 197-200 Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract Radioactive beams of 14,15B produced by fragmentation of a primary 40Ar beam were directed onto a Pb target to investigate the neutron breakup within the Coulomb field. The experiment was performed at the LAND/R3B setup. Preliminary results for the Coulomb dissociation cross sections as well as for the astrophysically interesting inverse reactions, 13,14B(n,γ), are presented.
3.	Caesar, C., et al. (author) Beyond the neutron drip line: The unbound oxygen isotopes O-25 and O-26 2013 In: Physical Review C - Nuclear Physics. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993 .- 0556-2813. ; 88:3 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The very neutron-rich oxygen isotopes O-25 and O-26 are investigated experimentally and theoretically. The unbound states are populated in an experiment performed at the R3B-LAND setup at GSI via proton-knockout reactions from F-26 and F-27 at relativistic energies around 442 and 414 MeV/nucleon, respectively. From the kinematically complete measurement of the decay into O-24 plus one or two neutrons, the O-25 ground-state energy and width are determined, and upper limits for the O-26 ground-state energy and lifetime are extracted. In addition, the results provide indications for an excited state in O-26 at around 4 MeV. The experimental findings are compared to theoretical shell-model calculations based on chiral two- and three-nucleon (3N) forces, including for the first time residual 3N forces, which are shown to be amplified as valence neutrons are added.
4.	Vandebrouck, M., et al. (author) Effective proton-neutron interaction near the drip line from unbound states in F-25,F-26 2017 In: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 96:5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Odd-odd nuclei, around doubly closed shells, have been extensively used to study proton-neutron interactions. However, the evolution of these interactions as a function of the binding energy, ultimately when nuclei become unbound, is poorly known. The F-26 nucleus, composed of a deeply bound pi 0d(5/2) proton and an unbound v0d(3/2) neutron on top of an O-24 core, is particularly adapted for this purpose. The coupling of this proton and neutron results in a J(pi) = 1(1)(+) - 4(1)(+) multiplet, whose energies must be determined to study the influence of the proximity of the continuum on the corresponding proton-neutron interaction. The J(pi) = 1(1)(+), 2(1)(+), 4(1)(+) bound states have been determined, and only a clear identification of the J(pi) = 3(1)(+) is missing. Purpose: We wish to complete the study of the J(pi) = 1(1)(+) - 4(1)(+) multiplet in F-26, by studying the energy and width of the J(pi) = 3(1)(+) unbound state. The method was first validated by the study of unbound states in F-25, for which resonances were already observed in a previous experiment. Method: Radioactive beams of Ne-26 and Ne-27, produced at about 440AMeV by the fragment separator at the GSI facility were used to populate unbound states in F-25 and F-26 via one-proton knockout reactions on a CH2 target, located at the object focal point of the (RB)-B-3/LAND setup. The detection of emitted. rays and neutrons, added to the reconstruction of the momentum vector of the A - 1 nuclei, allowed the determination of the energy of three unbound states in F-25 and two in F-26. Results: Based on its width and decay properties, the first unbound state in F-25, at the relative energy of 49(9) keV, is proposed to be a J(pi) = 1/ 2(-) arising from a p1/2 proton- hole state. In F-26, the first resonance at 323(33) keV is proposed to be the J(pi) = 3(1)(+) member of the J(pi) = 1(1)(+) - 4(1)(+) multiplet. Energies of observed states in F-25,F-26 have been compared to calculations using the independent-particle shell model, a phenomenological shell model, and the ab initio valence-space in-medium similarity renormalization group method. Conclusions: The deduced effective proton- neutron interaction is weakened by about 30-40% in comparison to the models, pointing to the need for implementing the role of the continuum in theoretical descriptions or to a wrong determination of the atomic mass of F-26.
5.	Heine, M., et al. (author) Determination of the neutron-capture rate of C-17 for r-process nucleosynthesis 2017 In: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 95:1, s. Article no 014613 - Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract With the (RB)-B-3-LAND setup at GSI we have measured exclusive relative-energy spectra of the Coulomb dissociation of C-18 at a projectile energy around 425A MeV on a lead target, which are needed to determine the radiative neutron-capture cross sections of C-17 into the ground state of C-18. Those data have been used to constrain theoretical calculations for transitions populating excited states in C-18. This allowed to derive the astrophysical cross section sigma(n gamma)*. accounting for the thermal population of C-17 target states in astrophysical scenarios. The experimentally verified capture rate is significantly lower than those of previously obtained Hauser-Feshbach estimations at temperatures T-9
6.	Röder, M., et al. (author) Coulomb dissociation of 20,21 N 2016 In: Physical Review C - Nuclear Physics. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993 .- 0556-2813. ; 93:6 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Neutron-rich light nuclei and their reactions play an important role in the creation of chemical elements. Here, data from a Coulomb dissociation experiment on N20,21 are reported. Relativistic N20,21 ions impinged on a lead target and the Coulomb dissociation cross section was determined in a kinematically complete experiment. Using the detailed balance theorem, the N19(n,γ)N20 and N20(n,γ)N21 excitation functions and thermonuclear reaction rates have been determined. The N19(n,γ)N20 rate is up to a factor of 5 higher at T
7.	Thies, Ronja, 1987, et al. (author) Systematic investigation of projectile fragmentation using beams of unstable B and C isotopes 2016 In: Physical Review C - Nuclear Physics. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993 .- 0556-2813. ; 93:5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Models describing nuclear fragmentation and fragmentation fission deliver important input for planning nuclear physics experiments and future radioactive ion beam facilities. These models are usually benchmarked against data from stable beam experiments. In the future, two-step fragmentation reactions with exotic nuclei as stepping stones are a promising tool for reaching the most neutron-rich nuclei, creating a need for models to describe also these reactions. Purpose: We want to extend the presently available data on fragmentation reactions towards the light exotic region on the nuclear chart. Furthermore, we want to improve the understanding of projectile fragmentation especially for unstable isotopes. Method: We have measured projectile fragments from C10,12-18 and B10-15 isotopes colliding with a carbon target. These measurements were all performed within one experiment, which gives rise to a very consistent data set. We compare our data to model calculations. Results: One-proton removal cross sections with different final neutron numbers (1pxn) for relativistic C10,12-18 and B10-15 isotopes impinging on a carbon target. Comparing model calculations to the data, we find that the epax code is not able to describe the data satisfactorily. Using abrabla07 on the other hand, we find that the average excitation energy per abraded nucleon needs to be decreased from 27 MeV to 8.1 MeV. With that decrease abrabla07 describes the data surprisingly well. Conclusions: Extending the available data towards light unstable nuclei with a consistent set of new data has allowed a systematic investigation of the role of the excitation energy induced in projectile fragmentation. Most striking is the apparent mass dependence of the average excitation energy per abraded nucleon. Nevertheless, this parameter, which has been related to final-state interactions, requires further study.
8.	Ribeiro, G., et al. (author) Structure of Be-13 studied in proton knockout from B-14 2018 In: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 98:2 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The neutron-unbound isotope Be-13 has been studied in several experiments using different reactions, different projectile energies, and different experimental setups. There is, however, no real consensus in the interpretation of the data, in particular concerning the structure of the low-lying excited states. Gathering new experimental information, which may reveal the Be-13 structure, is a challenge, particularly in light of its bridging role between Be-12, where the N = 8 neutron shell breaks down, and the Borromean halo nucleus Be-14. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the role of bound excited states in the reaction product Be-12 after proton knockout from B-14, by measuring coincidences between Be-12, neutrons, and gamma rays originating from de-excitation of states fed by neutron decay of Be-13. The Be-13 isotopes were produced in proton knockout from a 400 MeV/nucleon B-14 beam impinging on a CH2 target. The Be-12-n relative-energy spectrum d sigma/dE(fn) was obtained from coincidences between Be-12(g.s.) and a neutron, and also as threefold coincidences by adding gamma rays, from the de-excitation of excited states in Be-12. Neutron decay from the first 5/2(+) state in Be-13 to the 2(+) state in Be-12 at 2.11 MeV is confirmed. An energy independence of the proton-knockout mechanism is found from a comparison with data taken with a 35 MeV/nucleon B-14 beam. A low-lying p-wave resonance in Be-13(1/2(-)) is confirmed by comparing proton- and neutron-knockout data from B-14 and Be-14.
9.	Boillos, J. M., et al. (author) Isotopic cross sections of fragmentation residues produced by light projectiles on carbon near 2022 In: Physical Review C. - 2469-9993 .- 2469-9985. ; 105:1 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We measured 135 cross sections of residual nuclei produced in fragmentation reactions of C12, N14, and O13−16,20,22 projectiles impinging on a carbon target at kinetic energies of near 400A MeV, most of them for the first time, with the RB3/LAND setup at the GSI facility in Darmstadt (Germany). The use of this state-of-the-art experimental setup in combination with the inverse kinematics technique gave the full identification in atomic and mass numbers of fragmentation residues with a high precision. The cross sections of these residues were determined with uncertainties below 20% for most of the cases. These data are compared to other previous measurements with stable isotopes and are also used to benchmark different model calculations.
10.	Diaz Fernandez, Paloma, 1983, et al. (author) Quasifree (p, pN) scattering of light neutron-rich nuclei near N=14 2018 In: Physical Review C. - 2469-9985 .- 2469-9993. ; 97:2 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: For many years, quasifree scattering reactions in direct kinematics have been extensively used to study the structure of stable nuclei, demonstrating the potential of this approach. The (RB)-B-3 collaboration has performed a pilot experiment to study quasifree scattering reactions in inverse kinematics for a stable C-12 beam. The results from that experiment constitute the first quasifree scattering results in inverse and complete kinematics. This technique has lately been extended to exotic beams to investigate the evolution of shell structure, which has attracted much interest due to changes in shell structure if the number of protons or neutrons is varied. Purpose: In this work we investigate for the first time the quasifree scattering reactions (p, pn) and (p, 2p) simultaneously for the same projectile in inverse and complete kinematics for radioactive beams with the aim to study the evolution of single-particle properties from N = 14 to N = 15. Method: The structure of the projectiles O-23, O-22, and N-21 has been studied simultaneously via (p, pn) and (p, 2p) quasifree knockout reactions in complete inverse kinematics, allowing the investigation of proton and neutron structure at the same time. The experimental data were collected at the (RB)-B-3-LAND setup at GSI at beam energies of around 400 MeV/u. Two key observables have been studied to shed light on the structure of those nuclei: the inclusive cross sections and the corresponding momentum distributions. Conclusions: The knockout reactions (p, pn) and (p, 2p) with radioactive beams in inverse kinematics have provided important and complementary information for the study of shell evolution and structure. For the (p, pn) channels, indications of a change in the structure of these nuclei moving from N = 14 to N = 15 have been observed, i.e., from the 0d(5/2) shell to the 1s(1/2). This supports previous observations of a subshell closure at N = 14 for neutron-rich oxygen isotopes and its weakening for the nitrogen isotopes.
11.	Atar, L., et al. (author) Quasifree (p, 2p) Reactions on Oxygen Isotopes: Observation of Isospin Independence of the Reduced Single-Particle Strength 2018 In: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 120:5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Quasifree one-proton knockout reactions have been employed in inverse kinematics for a systematic study of the structure of stable and exotic oxygen isotopes at the R3B/LAND setup with incident beam energies in the range of 300-450 MeV/u. The oxygen isotopic chain offers a large variation of separation energies that allows for a quantitative understanding of single-particle strength with changing isospin asymmetry. Quasifree knockout reactions provide a complementary approach to intermediate-energy one-nucleon removal reactions. Inclusive cross sections for quasifree knockout reactions of the type OA(p,2p)NA-1 have been determined and compared to calculations based on the eikonal reaction theory. The reduction factors for the single-particle strength with respect to the independent-particle model were obtained and compared to state-of-the-art ab initio predictions. The results do not show any significant dependence on proton-neutron asymmetry.
12.	Revel, A., et al. (author) Strong Neutron Pairing in core+4n Nuclei 2018 In: Physical Review Letters. - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 120:15 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The emission of neutron pairs from the neutron-rich N=12 isotones C18 and O20 has been studied by high-energy nucleon knockout from N19 and O21 secondary beams, populating unbound states of the two isotones up to 15 MeV above their two-neutron emission thresholds. The analysis of triple fragment-n-n correlations shows that the decay N19(-1p)C18∗→C16+n+n is clearly dominated by direct pair emission. The two-neutron correlation strength, the largest ever observed, suggests the predominance of a C14 core surrounded by four valence neutrons arranged in strongly correlated pairs. On the other hand, a significant competition of a sequential branch is found in the decay O21(-1n)O20∗→O18+n+n, attributed to its formation through the knockout of a deeply bound neutron that breaks the O16 core and reduces the number of pairs.
13.	Liu, E. J., et al. (author) Aerial strategies advance volcanic gas measurements at inaccessible, strongly degassing volcanoes 2020 In: Science advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 6:44 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Volcanic emissions are a critical pathway in Earth's carbon cycle. Here, we show that aerial measurements of volcanic gases using unoccupied aerial systems (UAS) transform our ability to measure and monitor plumes remotely and to constrain global volatile fluxes from volcanoes. Combining multi-scale measurements from ground-based remote sensing, long-range aerial sampling, and satellites, we present comprehensive gas fluxes-3760 ± [600, 310] tons day-1 CO2 and 5150 ± [730, 340] tons day-1 SO2-for a strong yet previously uncharacterized volcanic emitter: Manam, Papua New Guinea. The CO2/ST ratio of 1.07 ± 0.06 suggests a modest slab sediment contribution to the sub-arc mantle. We find that aerial strategies reduce uncertainties associated with ground-based remote sensing of SO2 flux and enable near-real-time measurements of plume chemistry and carbon isotope composition. Our data emphasize the need to account for time averaging of temporal variability in volcanic gas emissions in global flux estimates.
14.	Freer, J., et al. (author) Flood risk and uncertainty 2013 In: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment for Natural Hazards. - : Cambridge University Press. - 9781139047562 - 9781107006195 ; , s. 190-233 Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract IntroductionExtreme floods are among the most destructive forces of nature. Flooding accounts for a significant proportion of the total number of reported natural disasters occurring in the world (Figure 7.1a) and over the last 30 years this proportion has been increasing (Figure 7.1b). Reasons for this trend may not be clear; for each hazard there is a need to quantify whether this is an increase in the hazard itself, an increase in exposure to the hazard internationally or a change in the reporting of what constitutes a natural disaster. Internationally, the costs and scale of flooding are enormous but differ depending on the types of impact that are analysed and the databases used. Globally in 2007 it was estimated that annually 520 million people are affected by floods and that the death toll is approximately 25 000 people in any one year. Jonkman (2005) found for a study using data from 1974 to 2003 (from data maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels) that floods are the most significant natural disaster type in terms of the number of people affected – some 51% of the total of that period of approximately five billion people affected by natural disaster (droughts are second with 36%, and earthquakes third at 2%). However, in terms of overall estimated deaths flooding accounts for 10% of the approximately two million reported deaths associated with natural disasters over the 1974–2003 period (droughts 44% and earthquakes 27%). In monetary terms an assessment by Munich RE for the period 1980–2010 determined that at 2010 prices the losses totalled US$3000 billion from ~19 400 events with 2.275 million fatalities. Of these, hydrological catastrophes (flooding and mass movement, i.e. landslips and debris flow in this case) accounted for 24% of these monetary losses, from 35% of the total events, and 11% of the fatalities. Other categories of natural disasters included in these totals were geophysical, meteorological and climatological (NatCatSERVICE, 2011).
15.	Dunn, S. M., et al. (author) Conceptualization in catchment modelling : simply learning? 2008 In: Hydrological Processes. ; 22:13, s. 2389-2393 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
16.	Westerberg, Ida, et al. (author) A comparison of methods for streamflow uncertainty estimation. 2018 In: Water resources research. - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; :54, s. 7149–7176- Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Streamflow time series are commonly derived from stage‐discharge rating curves, but the uncertainty of the rating curve and resulting streamflow series are poorly understood. While different methods to quantify uncertainty in the stage‐discharge relationship exist, there is limited understanding of how uncertainty estimates differ between methods due to different assumptions and methodological choices. We compared uncertainty estimates and stage‐discharge rating curves from seven methods at three river locations of varying hydraulic complexity. Comparison of the estimated uncertainties revealed a wide range of estimates, particularly for high and low flows. At the simplest site on the Isère River (France), full width 95% uncertainties for the different methods ranged from 3 to 17% for median flows. In contrast, uncertainties were much higher and ranged from 41 to 200% for high flows in an extrapolated section of the rating curve at the Mahurangi River (New Zealand) and 28 to 101% for low flows at the Taf River (United Kingdom), where the hydraulic control is unstable at low flows. Differences between methods result from differences in the sources of uncertainty considered, differences in the handling of the time‐varying nature of rating curves, differences in the extent of hydraulic knowledge assumed, and differences in assumptions when extrapolating rating curves above or below the observed gaugings. Ultimately, the selection of an uncertainty method requires a match between user requirements and the assumptions made by the uncertainty method. Given the significant differences in uncertainty estimates between methods, we suggest that a clear statement of uncertainty assumptions be presented alongside streamflow uncertainty estimates.
17.	Beven, Keith J, et al. (author) Comment on “Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology” by Pietro Mantovan and Ezio Todini 2007 In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 338:3-4, s. 315-318 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This comment is a response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: Incoherence of the GLUE methodology, J. Hydrology, 2006]. In this comment it is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. For the hypothetical study of Mantovan and Todini, exact assumptions were assumed known for the formal Bayesian identification, but were then ignored in the application of GLUE to the same data. We show that a more reasonable application of GLUE to this problem using similar prior knowledge shows that gives equally coherent results to the formal Bayes identification. In real applications, subject to input and model structural error it is suggested that the coherency condition of MT06 cannot hold at the single observation level and that the choice of a formal Bayesian likelihood function may then be incoherent. In these (more interesting) cases, GLUE can be coherent in the application of likelihood measures based on blocks of data, but different choices of measures and blocks effectively represent different beliefs about the information content of data in real applications with input and model structural errors.
18.	Beven, Keith J., et al. (author) Struggling with Epistemic Uncertainties in Environmental Modelling of Natural Hazards 2014 In: Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk. - Reston, VA : American Society of Civil Engineers. - 9780784413609 ; , s. 13-22 Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract Epistemic uncertainties create difficulties for the quantitative estimation of uncertainties associated with environmental models. The nature of the issues involved is discussed, particularly in how to assign likelihood values to models when the forcing data and evaluation data might both be subject to epistemic uncertainties. A case study of a rainfall-runoff model of the River Brue catchment is developed with the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. Model evaluation is carried out using limits of acceptability set from considerations of the available data prior to running a model, while the errors associated with a model are treated non-parametrically for different parts of the hydrograph.
19.	Freer, M., et al. (author) Helium breakup states in 10Be and 12Be 2001 In: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 63:3 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
20.	Kreibich, Heidi, et al. (author) Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts 2023 In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
21.	Kreibich, Heidi, et al. (author) The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management 2022 In: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
22.	Marques, F. M., et al. (author) Neutrons from the breakup of C-19 1996 In: Physics Letters, Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - 0370-2693. ; 381:4, s. 407-412 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Neutrons arising from the breakup of a 30 MeV/nucleon C-19 beam on a tantalum target have been measured using the 98 element array DEMON. A narrow, forward peaked neutron angular distribution, with a corresponding momentum spread considerably smaller than those measured simultaneously for N-21, O-22 and F-24 was observed for charged fragments with Z
23.	Page, T., et al. (author) Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon, Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty) 2007 In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 21:3, s. 292-307 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The application of a modified version of dynamic TOPMODEL for two subcatchments at Plynlimon, Wales is described. Conservative chemical mixing within mobile and immobile stores has been added to the hydrological model in an attempt to simulate observed stream chloride concentrations. The model was not fully able to simulate the observed behaviour, in particular the short- to medium-term dynamics. One of the primary problems highlighted by the study was the representation of dry deposition and cloud-droplet-deposited chloride, which formed a significant part of the long-term chloride mass budget. Equifinality of parameter sets inhibited the ability to determine the effective catchment mixing volumes and coefficients or the most likely partition between occult mass inputs and chloride mass inputs determined by catchment immobile-store antecedent conditions. Some success was achieved, in as much as some aspects of the dynamic behaviour of the signal were satisfactorily simulated, although spectral analysis showed that the model could not fully reproduce the 1/f power spectra of observed stream chloride concentrations with its implications of a wide distribution of residence times for water in the catchment.
24.	Bach, Lydia L., et al. (author) In situ Response of Tropical Coralline Algae to a Novel Thermal Regime 2017 In: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-7745. ; 4 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Coralline algae provide important ecosystem services. In situ observations of how they respond to different environmental conditions can help us to understand (i) their ability to adapt to their local environment and (0 their capacity to acclimatize to a novel thermal regime. Here, individuals of the tropical coralline algae, Lithophyllum kotschyanum, were translocated on a coral reef from thermally stable areas to areas characterized by natural temperature variability. Changes in their photosynthetic efficiency were determined using pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) chlorophyll fluorescence. Despite an initial stress response, algae exposed to increases in thermal variation recovered within 24 hours, indicating a rapid, short-term acclimatization capacity. Algae naturally inhabiting thermally variable areas of the reef showed no change in photosynthetic efficiency throughout the study suggesting longer-term adaptation to living in a variable environment also occurs. However, coralline algae living in thermally stable reef areas were abundant and marginally larger, suggesting physiological trade-offs are used to survive in variable environments. Thus, our results suggest that while coralline algae can survive in environmentally variable conditions, there may be structural and ecosystem costs.
25.	Beven, Keith, et al. (author) Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 1 : A review of different natural hazard areas 2018 In: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 18:10, s. 2741-2768 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are currently considered in the most widely occurring natural hazard areas, including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. Our aim is to provide an overview of the types of epistemic uncertainty in the analysis of these natural hazards and to discuss how they have been treated so far to bring out some commonalities and differences. The breadth of our study makes it difficult to go into great detail on each aspect covered here; hence the focus lies on providing an overview and on citing key literature. We find that in current probabilistic approaches to the problem, uncertainties are all too often treated as if, at some fundamental level, they are aleatory in nature. This can be a tempting choice when knowledge of more complex structures is difficult to determine but not acknowledging the epistemic nature of many sources of uncertainty will compromise any risk analysis. We do not imply that probabilistic uncertainty estimation necessarily ignores the epistemic nature of uncertainties in natural hazards; expert elicitation for example can be set within a probabilistic framework to do just that. However, we suggest that the use of simple aleatory distributional models, common in current practice, will underestimate the potential variability in assessing hazards, consequences, and risks. A commonality across all approaches is that every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of the sources of epistemic uncertainty. It is therefore important to record the assumptions made and to evaluate their impact on the uncertainty estimate. Additional guidelines for good practice based on this review are suggested in the companion paper (Part 2).
26.	Beven, Keith, et al. (author) So just why would a modeller choose to be incoherent? 2008 In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 354:1-4, s. 15-32 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This article provides an extended response to the criticisms of the GLUE methodology by Mantovan and Todini [Mantovan, P., Todini, E., 2006. Hydrological forecasting uncertainty assessment: incoherence of the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 330, 368-381]. It is shown that the formal Bayesian identification of models is a special case of GLUE that can be used where the modeller is prepared to make very strong assumptions about the nature of the modelling errors. Under such assumptions, GLUE can be coherent in the sense of Manotvan and Todini. In real applications, however, with multiple sources of uncertainty including model structural error, their strong definition of coherence is shown to be inapplicable to the extent that the choice of a format likelihood function based on a simple error structure may be an incoherent choice. It is demonstrated by some relatively minor modifications of their hypothetical example that misspecification of the error model and the non-stationarities associated with the presence of input error and model structural error in the Bayes approach will then produce well-defined but incorrect parameter distributions. This empirical result is quite independent of GLUE, but the flexibility of the GLUE approach may then prove to be an advantage in providing more coherent and robust choices of model evaluation in these cases and, by analogy, in other non-ideal cases for real applications. At the current time it is difficult to make a reasoned choice between methods of uncertainty estimation for real applications because of a lack of understanding of the real information content of data in conditioning models.
27.	Dean, Sarah, et al. (author) Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus 2009 In: Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3240 .- 1436-3259. ; 23, s. 991-1010 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km(2)), a River Wye tributary, on the England-Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R (2)) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.
28.	Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al. (author) Flood-plain mapping : a critical discussion of deterministic and probabilistic approaches 2010 In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 55:3, s. 364-376 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Different methodologies for flood-plain mapping are analysed and discussed by comparing deterministic and probabilistic approaches using hydrodynamic numerical solutions. In order to facilitate the critical discussion, state-of-art techniques in the field of flood inundation modelling are applied to a specific test site (River Dee, UK). Specifically, different flood-plain maps are derived for this test site. A first map is built by applying an advanced deterministic approach: use of a fully two-dimensional finite element model (TELEMAC-2D), calibrated against a historical flood extent, to derive a 1-in-100 year flood inundation map. A second map is derived by using a probabilistic approach: use of a simple raster-based inundation model (LISFLOOD-FP) to derive an uncertain flood extent map predicting the 1-in-100 year event conditioned on the extent of the 2006 flood. The flood-plain maps are then compared and the advantages and disadvantages of the two different approaches are critically discussed.
29.	Freer, E, et al. (author) Brucella-Salmonella lipopolysaccharide chimeras are less permeable to hydrophobic probes and more sensitive to cationic peptides and EDTA than are their native Brucella sp. counterparts 1996 In: Journal of bacteriology. - : American Society for Microbiology. - 0021-9193 .- 1098-5530. ; 178:20, s. 5867-5876 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract A rough (R) Brucella abortus 45/20 mutant was more sensitive to the bactericidal activity of polymyxin B and lactoferricin B than was its smooth (S) counterpart but considerably more resistant than Salmonella montevideo. The outer membrane (OM) and isolated lipopolysaccharide (LPS) of S. montevideo showed a higher affinity for these cationic peptides than did the corresponding B. abortus OM and LPS. We took advantage of the moderate sensitivity of R B. abortus to cationic peptides to construct live R B. abortus-S-LPS chimeras to test the activities of polymyxin B, lactoferricin B, and EDTA. Homogeneous and abundant peripheral distribution of the heterologous S-LPS was observed on the surface of the chimeras, and this coating had no effect on the viability or morphology of the cells. When the heterologous LPS corresponded to the less sensitive bacterium S B. abortus S19, the chimeras were more resistant to cationic peptides; in contrast, when the S-LPS was from the more sensitive bacterium S. montevideo, the chimeras were more susceptible to the action of peptides and EDTA. A direct correlation between the amount of heterologous S-LPS on the surface of chimeric Brucella cells and peptide sensitivity was observed. Whereas the damage produced by polymyxin B in S. montevideo and B. abortus-S. montevideo S-LPS chimeras was manifested mainly as OM blebbing and inner membrane rolling, lactoferricin B caused inner membrane detachment, vacuolization, and the formation of internal electron-dense granules in these cells. Native S and R B. abortus strains were permeable to the hydrophobic probe N-phenyl-1-naphthylamine (NPN). In contrast, only reduced amounts of NPN partitioned into the OMs of the S. montevideo and B. abortus-S. montevideo S-LPS chimeras. Following peptide exposure, accelerated NPN uptake similar to that observed for S. montevideo was detected for the B. abortus-S. montevideo LPS chimeras. The partition of NPN into native or EDTA-, polymyxin B-, or lactoferricin B-treated LPS micelles of S. montevideo or B. abortus mimicked the effects observed with intact cells, and this was confirmed by using micelle hybrids of B. abortus and S. montevideo LPSs. The results showed that LPS is the main cause of B. abortus' resistance to bactericidal cationic peptides, the OM-disturbing action of divalent cationic chelants, and OM permeability to hydrophobic substances. It is proposed that these three features are related to the ability of Brucella bacteria to multiply within phagocytes.
30.	Freer, E, et al. (author) The outer membrane of Brucella ovis shows increased permeability to hydrophobic probes and is more susceptible to cationic peptides than are the outer membranes of mutant rough Brucella abortus strains 1999 In: Infection and immunity. - 0019-9567. ; 67:11, s. 6181-6186 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
31.	Westerberg, Ida, et al. (author) Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves 2011 In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 15:7, s. 2205-2227 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1) uncertain discharge data, (2) variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3) influence of unknown input/output errors and (4) inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs) to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs) on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested - based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WAS-MOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e. g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of acceptability applied directly to the time series of discharge, it still requires a reasonable representation of the distribution of inputs. Additional constraints might therefore be required in catchments subject to snow and where peak-flow timing at sub-daily time scales is of high importance. The results suggest that the calibration method can be useful when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. The method could also be suitable for calibration to regional FDCs while taking uncertainties in the hydrological model and data into account.
32.	Younger, M, et al. (author) Detecting the effects of spatial variability of rainfall on hydrological modelling within an uncertainty analysis framework 2009 In: Hydrological Processes. - : Wiley. - 0885-6087 .- 1099-1085. ; 23:14, s. 1988-2003 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Spatial patterns of rainfall are known to cause differences in observed flow. In this paper, the effects of perturbations in rainfall patterns on changes in parameter sets as well as model output are explored using the hydrological model Dynamic TOPMODEL for the Brue catchment (135 kin 2) in southwest England. Overall rainfall amount remains the same at each time step so the perturbations act Lis effectively treated errors in the spatial pattern. The errors were analysed with particular emphasis on when they could be detected under an uncertainty framework. Higher rainfall Perturbations (multipliers of x4 and greater) in the low lying and high areas of the catchment resulted in changes to event peaks and accompanying compensation in the baseflow. More significantly, changes in the effective model parameter values required by the best models to take account of the more extreme patterns were able to be detected by noting when distributions of parameters change under uncertainty. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
33.	Younger, P. M., et al. (author) The usability of 250 m resolution data from the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model as input data for a hydrological model 2008 In: Meteorological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 15:2, s. 207-217 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This article examines whether very-high resolution (250 m) data provided by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Unified Model (UM) could be used as an input to a hydrological model for hydrological forecasting purposes. A summer convective event and a winter stratiform event are both considered and it is found that in these two cases, despite errors in both the positioning and timing of storms the predictions were of a sufficient quality to provide beneficial inputs for hydrological modelling. There are encouraging indications that this technique may be valuable in improving flood forecasting generally. Copyright (C) 2008 Royal Meteorological Society.

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