1. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(author)
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Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97.1 (95% UI 95.8-98.1) in Iceland, followed by 96.6 (94.9-97.9) in Norway and 96.1 (94.5-97.3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18.6 (13.1-24.4) in the Central African Republic, 19.0 (14.3-23.7) in Somalia, and 23.4 (20.2-26.8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91.5 (89.1-936) in Beijing to 48.0 (43.4-53.2) in Tibet (a 43.5-point difference), while India saw a 30.8-point disparity, from 64.8 (59.6-68.8) in Goa to 34.0 (30.3-38.1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4.8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20.9-point to 17.0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17.2-point to 20.4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view and subsequent provision of quality health care for all populations. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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2. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(author)
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Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2âto end preventable child deaths by 2030âwe need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000â2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
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7. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Acceptance Tests of more than 10 000 Photomultiplier Tubes for the multi-PMT Digital Optical Modules of the IceCube Upgrade
- 2024
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In: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221. ; 19:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- More than 10 000 photomultiplier tubes (PMTs) with a diameter of 80 mm will be installed in multi-PMT Digital Optical Modules (mDOMs) of the IceCube Upgrade. These have been tested and pre-calibrated at two sites. A throughput of more than 1000 PMTs per week with both sites was achieved with a modular design of the testing facilities and highly automated testing procedures. The testing facilities can easily be adapted to other PMTs, such that they can, e.g., be re-used for testing the PMTs for IceCube-Gen2. Single photoelectron response, high voltage dependence, time resolution, prepulse, late pulse, afterpulse probabilities, and dark rates were measured for each PMT. We describe the design of the testing facilities, the testing procedures, and the results of the acceptance tests.
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8. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Characterization of the astrophysical diffuse neutrino flux using starting track events in IceCube
- 2024
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In: Physical Review D - Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 110:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A measurement of the diffuse astrophysical neutrino spectrum is presented using IceCube data collected from 2011-2022 (10.3 years). We developed novel detection techniques to search for events with a contained vertex and exiting track induced by muon neutrinos undergoing a charged-current interaction. Searching for these starting track events allows us to not only more effectively reject atmospheric muons but also atmospheric neutrino backgrounds in the southern sky, opening a new window to the sub-100 TeV astrophysical neutrino sky. The event selection is constructed using a dynamic starting track veto and machine learning algorithms. We use this data to measure the astrophysical diffuse flux as a single power law flux (SPL) with a best-fit spectral index of γ=2.58-0.09+0.10 and per-flavor normalization of φper-flavorAstro=1.68-0.22+0.19×10-18×GeV-1 cm-2 s-1 sr-1 (at 100 TeV). The sensitive energy range for this dataset is 3-550 TeV under the SPL assumption. This data was also used to measure the flux under a broken power law, however we did not find any evidence of a low energy cutoff.
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9. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Improved modeling of in-ice particle showers for IceCube event reconstruction
- 2024
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In: Journal of Instrumentation. - 1748-0221. ; 19:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory relies on an array of photomultiplier tubes to detect Cherenkov light produced by charged particles in the South Pole ice. IceCube data analyses depend on an in-depth characterization of the glacial ice, and on novel approaches in event reconstruction that utilize fast approximations of photoelectron yields. Here, a more accurate model is derived for event reconstruction that better captures our current knowledge of ice optical properties. When evaluated on a Monte Carlo simulation set, the median angular resolution for in-ice particle showers improves by over a factor of three compared to a reconstruction based on a simplified model of the ice. The most substantial improvement is obtained when including effects of birefringence due to the polycrystalline structure of the ice. When evaluated on data classified as particle showers in the high-energy starting events sample, a significantly improved description of the events is observed.
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10. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Citizen science for IceCube: Name that Neutrino
- 2024
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In: European Physical Journal Plus. - 2190-5444. ; 139:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Name that Neutrino is a citizen science project where volunteers aid in classification of events for the IceCube Neutrino Observatory, an immense particle detector at the geographic South Pole. From March 2023 to September 2023, volunteers did classifications of videos produced from simulated data of both neutrino signal and background interactions. Name that Neutrino obtained more than 128,000 classifications by over 1800 registered volunteers that were compared to results obtained by a deep neural network machine-learning algorithm. Possible improvements for both Name that Neutrino and the deep neural network are discussed.
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11. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Search for 10-1000 GeV Neutrinos from Gamma-Ray Bursts with IceCube
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 964:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the results of a search for 10-1000 GeV neutrinos from 2268 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) over 8 yr of IceCube-DeepCore data. This work probes burst physics below the photosphere where electromagnetic radiation cannot escape. Neutrinos of tens of giga electronvolts are predicted in sub-photospheric collision of free-streaming neutrons with bulk-jet protons. In a first analysis, we searched for the most significant neutrino-GRB coincidence using six overlapping time windows centered on the prompt phase of each GRB. In a second analysis, we conducted a search for a group of GRBs, each individually too weak to be detectable, but potentially significant when combined. No evidence of neutrino emission is found for either analysis. The most significant neutrino coincidence is for Fermi-GBM GRB bn 140807500, with a p-value of 0.097 corrected for all trials. The binomial test used to search for a group of GRBs had a p-value of 0.65 after all trial corrections. The binomial test found a group consisting only of GRB bn 140807500 and no additional GRBs. The neutrino limits of this work complement those obtained by IceCube at tera electronvolt to peta electronvolt energies. We compare our findings for the large set of GRBs as well as GRB 221009A to the sub-photospheric neutron-proton collision model and find that GRB 221009A provides the most constraining limit on baryon loading. For a jet Lorentz factor of 300 (800), the baryon loading on GRB 221009A is lower than 3.85 (2.13) at a 90% confidence level.
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12. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Search for decoherence from quantum gravity with atmospheric neutrinos
- 2024
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In: Nature Physics. - 1745-2481 .- 1745-2473. ; 20:6, s. 913-920
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Neutrino oscillations at the highest energies and longest baselines can be used to study the structure of spacetime and test the fundamental principles of quantum mechanics. If the metric of spacetime has a quantum mechanical description, its fluctuations at the Planck scale are expected to introduce non-unitary effects that are inconsistent with the standard unitary time evolution of quantum mechanics. Neutrinos interacting with such fluctuations would lose their quantum coherence, deviating from the expected oscillatory flavour composition at long distances and high energies. Here we use atmospheric neutrinos detected by the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory in the energy range of 0.5-10.0 TeV to search for coherence loss in neutrino propagation. We find no evidence of anomalous neutrino decoherence and determine limits on neutrino-quantum gravity interactions. The constraint on the effective decoherence strength parameter within an energy-independent decoherence model improves on previous limits by a factor of 30. For decoherence effects scaling as E2, our limits are advanced by more than six orders of magnitude beyond past measurements compared with the state of the art. Interactions of atmospheric neutrinos with quantum-gravity-induced fluctuations of the metric of spacetime would lead to decoherence. The IceCube Collaboration constrains such interactions with atmospheric neutrinos.
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13. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Measurement of atmospheric neutrino mixing with improved IceCube DeepCore calibration and data processing
- 2023
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In: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 108:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011-2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a sophisticated treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly greater level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be sin2θ23=0.51±0.05 and Δm322=2.41±0.07×10-3 eV2, assuming a normal mass ordering. The errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties. The resulting 40% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties.
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14. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Search for Continuous and Transient Neutrino Emission Associated with IceCube's Highest-energy Tracks: An 11 yr Analysis
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 964:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IceCube alert events are neutrinos with a moderate-to-high probability of having astrophysical origin. In this study, we analyze 11 yr of IceCube data and investigate 122 alert events and a selection of high-energy tracks detected between 2009 and the end of 2021. This high-energy event selection (alert events + high-energy tracks) has an average probability of >= 0.5 of being of astrophysical origin. We search for additional continuous and transient neutrino emission within the high-energy events' error regions. We find no evidence for significant continuous neutrino emission from any of the alert event directions. The only locally significant neutrino emission is the transient emission associated with the blazar TXS 0506+056, with a local significance of 3 sigma, which confirms previous IceCube studies. When correcting for 122 test positions, the global p-value is 0.156 and compatible with the background hypothesis. We constrain the total continuous flux emitted from all 122 test positions at 100 TeV to be below 1.2 x 10-15 (TeV cm2 s)-1 at 90% confidence assuming an E -2 spectrum. This corresponds to 4.5% of IceCube's astrophysical diffuse flux. Overall, we find no indication that alert events in general are linked to lower-energetic continuous or transient neutrino emission.
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15. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Search for Galactic Core-collapse Supernovae in a Decade of Data Taken with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 961:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IceCube Neutrino Observatory has been continuously taking data to search for O(0.5–10) s long neutrino bursts since 2007. Even if a Galactic core-collapse supernova is optically obscured or collapses to a black hole instead of exploding, it will be detectable via the O(10) MeV neutrino burst emitted during the collapse. We discuss a search for such events covering the time between 2008 April 17 and 2019 December 31. Considering the average data taking and analysis uptime of 91.7% after all selection cuts, this is equivalent to 10.735 yr of continuous data taking. In order to test the most conservative neutrino production scenario, the selection cuts were optimized for a model based on an 8.8 solar mass progenitor collapsing to an O–Ne–Mg core. Conservative assumptions on the effects of neutrino oscillations in the exploding star were made. The final selection cut was set to ensure that the probability to detect such a supernova within the Milky Way exceeds 99%. No such neutrino burst was found in the data after performing a blind analysis. Hence, a 90% C.L. upper limit on the rate of core-collapse supernovae out to distances of ≈25 kpc was determined to be 0.23 yr−1. For the more distant Magellanic Clouds, only high neutrino luminosity supernovae will be detectable by IceCube, unless external information on the burst time is available. We determined a model-independent limit by parameterizing the dependence on the neutrino luminosity and the energy spectrum.
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16. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal, Supplement Series. - : IOP Publishing Ltd. - 1538-4365 .- 0067-0049. ; 269:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert's reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT.
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17. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Search for neutrino lines from dark matter annihilation and decay with IceCube
- 2023
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In: Physical Review D. - : American Physical Society. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 108:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Dark matter particles in the Galactic Center and halo can annihilate or decay into a pair of neutrinos producing a monochromatic flux of neutrinos. The spectral feature of this signal is unique and it is not expected from any astrophysical production mechanism. Its observation would constitute a dark matter smoking gun signal. We performed the first dedicated search with a neutrino telescope for such signal, by looking at both the angular and energy information of the neutrino events. To this end, a total of five years of IceCube's DeepCore data has been used to test dark matter masses ranging from 10 GeV to 40 TeV. No significant neutrino excess was found and upper limits on the annihilation cross section, as well as lower limits on the dark matter lifetime, were set. The limits reached are of the order of 10-24 cm3/s for an annihilation and up to 1027 s for decaying dark matter. Using the same data sample we also derive limits for dark matter annihilation or decay into a pair of Standard Model charged particles.
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18. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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A Search for IceCube Sub-TeV Neutrinos Correlated with Gravitational-wave Events Detected By LIGO/Virgo
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 959:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The LIGO/Virgo collaboration published the catalogs GWTC-1, GWTC-2.1, and GWTC-3 containing candidate gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during its runs O1, O2, and O3. These GW events can be possible sites of neutrino emission. In this paper, we present a search for neutrino counterparts of 90 GW candidates using IceCube DeepCore, the low-energy infill array of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The search is conducted using an unbinned maximum likelihood method, within a time window of 1000 s, and uses the spatial and timing information from the GW events. The neutrinos used for the search have energies ranging from a few GeV to several tens of TeV. We do not find any significant emission of neutrinos, and place upper limits on the flux and the isotropic-equivalent energy emitted in low-energy neutrinos. We also conduct a binomial test to search for source populations potentially contributing to neutrino emission. We report a nondetection of a significant neutrino-source population with this test.
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19. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Observation of seasonal variations of the flux of high-energy atmospheric neutrinos with IceCube
- 2023
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In: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 83:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric muon neutrinos are produced by meson decays in cosmic-ray-induced air showers. The flux depends on meteorological quantities such as the air temperature, which affects the density of air. Competition between decay and re-interaction of those mesons in the first particle production generations gives rise to a higher neutrino flux when the air density in the stratosphere is lower, corresponding to a higher temperature. A measurement of a temperature dependence of the atmospheric νμ flux provides a novel method for constraining hadronic interaction models of air showers. It is particularly sensitive to the production of kaons. Studying this temperature dependence for the first time requires a large sample of high-energy neutrinos as well as a detailed understanding of atmospheric properties. We report the significant (>10σ) observation of a correlation between the rate of more than 260,000 neutrinos, detected by IceCube between 2012 and 2018, and atmospheric temperatures of the stratosphere, measured by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s AQUA satellite. For the observed 10 % seasonal change of effective atmospheric temperature we measure a 3.5(3) % change in the muon neutrino flux. This observed correlation deviates by about 2-3 standard deviations from the expected correlation of 4.3 % as obtained from theoretical predictions under the assumption of various hadronic interaction models.
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20. |
- Abbasi, R., et al.
(author)
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Limits on Neutrino Emission from GRB 221009A from MeV to PeV Using the IceCube Neutrino Observatory
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 946:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have long been considered a possible source of high-energy neutrinos. While no correlations have yet been detected between high-energy neutrinos and GRBs, the recent observation of GRB 221009A-the brightest GRB observed by Fermi-GBM to date and the first one to be observed above an energy of 10 TeV-provides a unique opportunity to test for hadronic emission. In this paper, we leverage the wide energy range of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory to search for neutrinos from GRB 221009A. We find no significant deviation from background expectation across event samples ranging from MeV to PeV energies, placing stringent upper limits on the neutrino emission from this source.
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21. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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22. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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23. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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24. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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25. |
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26. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(author)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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27. |
- de Muynck, Ldan, et al.
(author)
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Consensus Statement on the Use of Near-Infrared Fluorescence Imaging during Pancreatic Cancer Surgery Based on a Delphi Study: Surgeons' Perspectives on Current Use and Future Recommendations
- 2023
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In: Cancers. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-6694. ; 15:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Simple Summary Despite the potential of fluorescence imaging during pancreatic cancer surgery, more research is needed to facilitate the approval of tumor-targeted probes, standardize imaging techniques, and most importantly, gain trust from surgeons. Despite advancements in the development of novel probes, preclinical research settings do not always accurately represent the surgical setting. This first-of-its-kind Delphi consensus survey highlights current experiences and attitudes towards fluorescence imaging during pancreatic cancer surgery, specifically from surgeon's perspectives. The results from this consensus survey highlight potential new directions for future research, which could facilitate the standardized use of fluorescence imaging during pancreatic surgery. Indocyanine green (ICG) is one of the only clinically approved near-infrared (NIR) fluorophores used during fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS), but it lacks tumor specificity for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Several tumor-targeted fluorescent probes have been evaluated in PDAC patients, yet no uniformity or consensus exists among the surgical community on the current and future needs of FGS during PDAC surgery. In this first-published consensus report on FGS for PDAC, expert opinions were gathered on current use and future recommendations from surgeons' perspectives. A Delphi survey was conducted among international FGS experts via Google Forms. Experts were asked to anonymously vote on 76 statements, with >= 70% agreement considered consensus and >= 80% participation/statement considered vote robustness. Consensus was reached for 61/76 statements. All statements were considered robust. All experts agreed that FGS is safe with few drawbacks during PDAC surgery, but that it should not yet be implemented routinely for tumor identification due to a lack of PDAC-specific NIR tracers and insufficient evidence proving FGS's benefit over standard methods. However, aside from tumor imaging, surgeons suggest they would benefit from visualizing vasculature and surrounding anatomy with ICG during PDAC surgery. Future research could also benefit from identifying neuroendocrine tumors. More research focusing on standardization and combining tumor identification and vital-structure imaging would greatly improve FGS's use during PDAC surgery.
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28. |
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29. |
- Ghadimi, M, et al.
(author)
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Numerical analysis and parametric study of the thermal behavior in multiple-skin facades
- 2013
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In: Energy and Buildings. - : Elsevier. - 0378-7788 .- 1872-6178. ; 67, s. 44-55
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The general aim of this research is contributed to the energy performance assessment of single storey multiple-skin facade. To cover this aim; multiple skin facade are studied by means of experiments and numerical simulation. In this research a numerical model for multiple-skin facades with mechanical and natural ventilation has been developed. The numerical model is two-dimensional and based on a cell centered volume method (CVM). As an improvement, radiation and convection are treated separately and by this means an innovative method is applied to calculate the view factors and heat transfer coefficients between surfaces and each cavity. Then the developed numerical model is validated using measurements from the vliet test building. However, there is no multiple-skin facade application in Tehran. Thus the model is used to assess the influence of different multiple-skin facade parameters in Tehrans climate conditions to show its effect on heat losses if this technology would be applied. As a consequence of the diversity of results, designer should be aware that multiple-skin facades do not necessarily improve the energy efficiency of their designs.
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30. |
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31. |
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32. |
- Ghadimi, Euhanna, et al.
(author)
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An analytical model of delay in multi-hop wireless ad hoc networks
- 2011
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In: Wireless networks. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1022-0038 .- 1572-8196. ; 17:7, s. 1679-1697
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several analytical models of different wireless networking schemes such as wireless LANs and meshes have been reported in the literature. To the best of our knowledge, all these models fail to address the accurate end-to-end delay analysis of multi-hop wireless networks under unsaturated traffic condition considering the hidden and exposed terminal situation. In an effort to gain deep understanding of delay, this paper firstly proposes a new analytical model to predict accurate media access delay by obtaining its distribution function in a single wireless node. The interesting point of having the media access delay distribution is its generality that not only enables us to derive the average delay which has been reported in almost most of the previous studies as a special case but also facilitates obtaining higher moments of delay such as variance and skewness to capture the QoS parameters such as jitters in recently popular multimedia applications. Secondly, using the obtained single node media access delay distribution, we extend our modeling approach to investigate the delay in multi-hop networks. Moreover, probabilities of collisions in both hidden and exposed terminal conditions have been calculated. The validity of the model is demonstrated by comparing results predicted by the analytical model against those obtained through simulation experiments.
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33. |
- Ghadimi, Hadi, et al.
(author)
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General practitioners' prescribing patterns for the elderly in a province of Iran
- 2011
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In: Pharmacoepidemiology and Drug Safety. - : Wiley. - 1053-8569 .- 1099-1557. ; 20:5, s. 482-487
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose To determine prescribing patterns by general physicians working in primary care (GPs) in Iran for the elderly and the prevalence of inappropriate prescribing. Methods We collected information about prescribed medicines for 10% of patients in primary care aged 65 years or above in six cities in one province during two separate months 1 year apart. Inappropriate prescribing was determined using Beers criteria, excluding diagnosis-related medications. The WHO indicators for appropriateness of prescribing in general practice and drug-drug interactions (DDIs) were also assessed. Results A total of 2041 patients were studied (mean age 73 years, 56% were women). Drugs for the alimentary system (20%), nervous system (15%), cardiovascular system (14%), and anti-infectives (12%) were most frequently prescribed. Almost all drugs (96%) were prescribed by generic names. Thirty percent of patients received at least one inappropriate drug (27% for men; 33% for women), whereof 94% were categorized as high risk for adverse effects. Indomethacin, diphenhydramine, and methocarbamol were the most common inappropriate medications. The average number of drugs per patient was 4.4 (4.2 for men; 4.5 for women). Forty-four percent of patients received five or more drugs. Antibiotics and injections were prescribed in 39 and 55% of all patients, respectively. Clinically relevant DDIs were observed for 14% of the patients. Conclusion Our findings call for further interventions aiming at educating GPs to reduce potential errors. National drug policies and prescribing guidelines should be implemented to address the problem of inappropriate drug usage among the elderly.
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34. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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A numerical investigation of the water impact of an arbitrary bow section
- 2013
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In: ISH Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. - : Informa UK Limited. - 2164-3040 .- 0971-5010. ; 19:3, s. 186-195
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Simulation of the free surface flow that occurs in the transverse planes of high-speed planing crafts has been researched by many authors. Moreover, the water impact phenomenon of two-dimensional sections is especially important and is examined in order to gain a good understanding as to what happens in the cross-sections of high-speed crafts. In this context, water impact problem of a general bow section becomes particularly critical for the planing hulls. In the present paper, finite-volume method in conjunction with volume of fluid scheme is used to numerically simulate the free surface profile related to the water entry of a general bow section. Furthermore, the pressure distributions related to the free surface profiles obtained are computed for each case. The free surface flow at two impacting velocities and at different time points are presented and the separated water flow generated by the bottom slamming is captured. The secondary water impact due to the separated flow is an interesting phenomenon, which is also examined in the current study. Finally, in order to validate the computational results, the pressure distributions obtained from the numerical solution are compared against the available experimental results, and good agreements are displayed.
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35. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Application of an iterative high order difference scheme along with an explicit system solver for solution of stream function-vorticity form of navier-stokes equations
- 2013
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In: Journal of Fluids Engineering, Transactions of the ASME. - : ASME International. - 1528-901X. ; 135:4
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes the general convection-diffusion equation in 2D domain based on a particular fourth order finite difference method. The current fourth-order compact formulation is implemented for the first time, which offers a semi-explicit method of solution for the resulting equations. A nine point finite difference scheme with uniform grid spacing is also put into action for discretization purpose. The proposed numerical model is based on the Navier-Stokes equations in a stream function-vorticity formulation. The fast convergence characteristic can be mentioned as an advantage of this scheme. It combines the enhanced Fournié's fourth order scheme and the expanded fourth order boundary conditions, while offering a semi-explicit formulation. To accomplish this, some coefficients which do not influence the solutions are also omitted from Fournié's formulation. Consequently, very accurate results can be acquired with a relatively coarse mesh in a short time. The robustness and accuracy of the proposed scheme is proved using the benchmark problems of flow in a driven square cavity at medium and relatively high Reynolds numbers, flow over a backward-facing step, and flow in an L-shaped cavity.
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36. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Introducing a new flap form to reduce the transom waves using a 3-D numerical analysis
- 2016
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In: International Journal of Computational Science and Engineering (IJCSE). - : Inderscience Publishers. - 1742-7185 .- 1742-7193. ; 12:4, s. 265-275
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present article introduces a new and innovative shape for the stern flap which modifies the flow of water underneath and around the transom stern. This is done in such a manner that the transom wave known as 'rooster tail' is reduced to a minimum, at different speeds. This hydrodynamic effect can be considered a radar signature reduction. Fuel consumption and resistance reduction are other advantages of the rooster tail reduction. To explore the effects of transom flap, a complete set of parametric studies is conducted and a three-dimensional numerical simulation of the transom stern flow, based on the FVM-VOF schemes in Ansys-CFX software, is presented. Three Froude numbers at four different trim angles are chosen and effects of transom flap on the rooster tail are probed in each case. Comparison of the numerical solutions with results of the existing empirical formula gives favourable agreement.
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37. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Introducing a particular mathematicalmodel for predicting the resistance and performance of prismatic planing hulls in calm water by means of total pressure distribution
- 2015
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In: Journal of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering. - : Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering. - 1813-8535 .- 2070-8998. ; 12:2, s. 73-94
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mathematical modeling of planing hulls and determination of their characteristics are the most important subjects in hydrodynamic study of planing vessels. In this paper, a new mathematical model has been developed based on pressure distribution. This model has been provided for two different situations: (1) for a situation in which all forces pass through the center of gravity and (2) for a situation in which forces don not necessarily pass through the center of gravity. Two algorithms have been designed for the governing equations. Computational results have been presented in the form of trim angle, total pressure, hydrodynamic and hydrostatic lift coefficients, spray apex and total resistance which includes frictional, spray and induced resistances. Accuracy of the model has been verified by comparing the numerical findings against the results of Savitsky's method and available experimental data. Good accuracy is displayed. Furthermore, effects of deadrise angle on trim angle of the craft, position of spray apex and resistance have been investigated.
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38. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Investigation of free surface flow generated by a planing flat plate using smoothed particle hydrodynamics method and FLOW3D simulations
- 2013
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In: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment. - : SAGE Publications. - 2041-3084 .- 1475-0902. ; 227:2, s. 125-135
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this article, smoothed particle hydrodynamics method is applied in order to study the free surface flow generated by two-dimensional planing flat plate. For this purpose, a two-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics code is developed and validated by the well-known dam breaking problem. Four trim angles and three different velocities are considered to perform a parametric study to examine their physical effects. The obtained results from smoothed particle hydrodynamics are compared against the corresponding Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes solutions. It is observed that at lower velocities, there exists a good agreement between the smoothed particle hydrodynamics and Reynolds-averaged Navier Stokes solutions, while at higher velocities, some inconsistency is observed. A brief discussion is presented to clarify the physical reasons behind the increase of the velocity and the height of the spray with the trim angle. Some formulas have also been derived to examine the variation of the ratio between the final wetted length of the flat plate and the initial wetted length at different velocities and trim angles.
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39. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Numerical simulation of water entry of different arbitrary bow sections
- 2014
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In: Journal of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering. - : Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering. - 1813-8535 .- 2070-8998. ; 11:2, s. 117-129
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Water impact phenomenon of general bow section is a critical event for planning hulls. In this paper, the water entry of several arbitrary bow sections is investigated. For this purpose, arbitrary bow shapes which are introduced by Lewis form approximation are considered. In order to obtain pressure distribution and free surface profile, volume of fluid (VOF) method coupled with finite volume method (FVM) are utilized in ANSYS-CFX solver. Pressure distribution, free surface, and evolution of intersection point on bow sections are presented, while secondary water impact is demonstrated. Comparison of the obtained results against previously published works shows good agreement.
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40. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Rooster tail depression by originating a modified transom stern form using a Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes solver
- 2015
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In: Scientia Iranica. International Journal of Science and Technology. - : Sharif University of Technology. - 1026-3098 .- 2345-3605. ; 22:3, s. 765-777
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present article relates to a new transom stern form for high speed planing hulls. To depress the intensive transom wave known as a "rooster tail", an innovative form of transom stern is originated. The new form of the transom stern is introduced by cutting the bottom of the hull near the transom stern. To verify the capability of the modified transom stern, a three dimensional RANS solver is used. It is demonstrated that by using the new transom stern shape, the intensive wave behind the transom will be substantially reduced in the range of the parameters under investigation. In the meantime, it is expected that the radar signature will also be decreased. To study the effect of the modified transom at various Froude numbers and different trim angles, a set of numerical experiments are conducted. Three Froude numbers and four trim angles are considered and it is observed that the cutted transom stern has a significant effect on the reduction of height and length (height reduction up to 61% and length reduction up to 63%) of the rooster tail. Additionally, the accuracy of the numerical solutions is validated by comparing them against the results of empirical formula existing in the literature.
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41. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Simulation of flow over a confined square cylinder and optimal passive control of vortex shedding using a detached splitter plate
- 2015
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In: Scientia Iranica. International Journal of Science and Technology. - : Sharif University of Technology. - 1026-3098 .- 2345-3605. ; 22:1, s. 175-186
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the area of bluff body aerodynamics, controlling the vortex shedding is of great importance to prevent damages caused by the vortex-induced forces. Accordingly, a short and thin splitter plate has been utilized at different downstream positions to interfere with the vortex wake of a confined square cylinder in the framework of an optimal passive control study. Vorticity-stream function formulation and finite-difference method have been used to numerically simulate the two-dimensional laminar flow. For preventing the flow from becoming three-dimensional, the Reynolds number is kept below 250. Validation of the code and mesh dependency analysis are offered. Based on the flow patterns acquired, the optimal position of the splitter plate behind the cylinder can prevent the detachment of the pair of vortices from the cylinder and will keep the streamlines symmetric around the zero streamline. Consequently, vortex shedding does not occur and the vortex-induced forces are eliminated entirely. Interestingly we showed that the vortex can be suppressed even when the splitter plate is asymmetrically arranged behind the cylinder, especially in the case of positioning the body close to the surrounding walls.
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42. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Study of various numerical aspects of 3D-SPH for simulation of the dam break problem
- 2012
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In: Journal of the Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences and Engineering. - : Springer Nature. - 1678-5878 .- 1806-3691. ; 34:4, s. 486-491
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recently, the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) method has been utilized as an effective tool for capturing details of the fluid flows. The Lagrangian nature of the SPH method facilitates the modeling of the free surface flows. In the present article, different numerical features of 3D-SPH are probed to find a set of options that can be used to achieve an accurate numerical simulation of the dam break problem. Several numerical techniques such as time stepping algorithm, filter density and viscosity treatment are considered as compiling options. Twelve sets of mentioned schemes are also chosen and the elevation of free surface flow is captured. The obtained results are compared against the experimental data existing in the literature. Finally, it is concluded that the Symplectic algorithm in conjunction with density filter and SPS turbulence model can be used to achieve the desired accurate numerical results.
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43. |
- Ghadimi, P., et al.
(author)
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Three-dimensional simulation of transom stern flow at various Froude numbers and trim angles
- 2018
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In: Progress in Computational Fluid Dynamics, An International Journal. - : Inderscience Publishers. - 1468-4349 .- 1741-5233. ; 18:4, s. 232-240
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Numerical simulation of transom stern flow has proven to be an interesting topic, but a complicated task in the hydrodynamic field of research. In this paper, a three-dimensional numerical simulation is presented using Ansys-CFX to survey the free surface flow, downstream of the transom stern. To this end, finite volume method coupled with volume of fluid is utilised and k-ϵ turbulent model is applied. The numerical solutions are validated by comparing the findings against the results of empirical formula available in the literature. In order to conduct a parametric study, four different Froude numbers, four trim angles, and two deadrise angles are considered and the effect of each of these parameters is studied.
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44. |
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