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- Khalil, I., et al.
(author)
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Transport injuries and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study
- 2018
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In: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 187-198
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides an overview of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by age and sex from 1990 to 2015. Methods: Transport injuries mortality in the EMR was estimated using the Global Burden of Disease mortality database, with corrections for ill-defined causes of death, using the cause of death ensemble modeling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient datasets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories. Results: In 2015, 152,855 (95% uncertainty interval: 137,900–168,100) people died from TI in the EMR countries. Between 1990 and 2015, the years of life lost (YLL) rate per 100,000 due to TI decreased by 15.5%, while the years lived with disability (YLD) rate decreased by 10%, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate decreased by 16%. Conclusions: Although the burden of TI mortality and morbidity decreased over the last two decades, there is still a considerable burden that needs to be addressed by increasing awareness, enforcing laws, and improving road conditions. © 2017, The Author(s).
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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- King, C, et al.
(author)
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Changes in non-communicable diseases, diet and exercise in a rural Bangladesh setting before and after the first wave of COVID-19
- 2022
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In: PLOS global public health. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 2767-3375. ; 2:9, s. e0001110-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is high in rural Bangladesh. Given the complex multi-directional relationships between NCDs, COVID-19 infections and control measures, exploring pandemic impacts in this context is important. We conducted two cross-sectional surveys of adults ≥30-years in rural Faridpur district, Bangladesh, in February to March 2020 (survey 1, pre-COVID-19), and January to March 2021 (survey 2, post-lockdown). A new random sample of participants was taken at each survey. Anthropometric measures included: blood pressure, weight, height, hip and waist circumference and fasting and 2-hour post-glucose load blood glucose. An interviewer-administered questionnaire included: socio-demographics; lifestyle and behavioural risk factors; care seeking; self-rated health, depression and anxiety assessments. Differences in NCDs, diet and exercise were compared between surveys using chi2 tests, logistic and linear regression; sub-group analyses by gender, age and socio-economic tertiles were conducted. We recruited 950 (72.0%) participants in survey 1 and 1392 (87.9%) in survey 2. The percentage of the population with hypertension increased significantly from 34.5% (95% CI: 30.7, 38.5) to 41.5% (95% CI: 38.2, 45.0; p-value = 0.011); the increase was more pronounced in men. Across all measures of self-reported health and mental health, there was a significant improvement between survey 1 and 2. For self-rated health, we observed a 10-point increase (71.3 vs 81.2, p-value = 0.005). Depression reduced from 15.3% (95% CI: 8.4, 26.1) to 6.0% (95% CI: 2.7, 12.6; p-value = 0.044) and generalised anxiety from 17.9% (95% CI: 11.3, 27.3) to 4.0% (95% CI: 2.0, 7.6; p-value<0.001). No changes in fasting blood glucose, diabetes status, BMI or abdominal obesity were observed. Our findings suggest both positive and negative health outcomes following COVID-19 lockdown in a rural Bangladeshi setting, with a concerning increase in hypertension. These findings need to be further contextualised, with prospective assessments of indirect effects on physical and mental health and care-seeking.
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| 11. |
- King, C, et al.
(author)
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Community participatory learning and action cycle groups to reduce type 2 diabetes in Bangladesh (D:Clare): an updated study protocol for a parallel arm cluster randomised controlled trial
- 2023
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In: Trials. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1745-6215. ; 24:1, s. 218-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The “Diabetes: Community-led Awareness, Response and Evaluation” (D:Clare) trial aims to scale up and replicate an evidence-based participatory learning and action cycle intervention in Bangladesh, to inform policy on population-level T2DM prevention and control.The trial was originally designed as a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial, with the interventions running from March 2020 to September 2022. Twelve clusters were randomly allocated (1:1) to implement the intervention at months 1 or 12 in two steps, and evaluated through three cross-sectional surveys at months 1, 12 and 24. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, we suspended project activities on the 20th of March 2020. As a result of the changed risk landscape and the delays introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic, we changed from the stepped-wedge design to a wait-list parallel arm cluster RCT (cRCT) with baseline data. We had four key reasons for eventually agreeing to change designs: equipoise, temporal bias in exposure and outcomes, loss of power and time and funding considerations.Trial registrationISRCTN42219712. Registered on 31 October 2019.
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| 13. |
- Pires, M, et al.
(author)
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Equity impact of participatory learning and action community mobilisation and mHealth interventions to prevent and control type 2 diabetes and intermediate hyperglycaemia in rural Bangladesh: analysis of a cluster randomised controlled trial
- 2022
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In: Journal of epidemiology and community health. - : BMJ. - 1470-2738 .- 0143-005X. ; 76:6, s. 586-594
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A cluster randomised trial of mHealth and participatory learning and action (PLA) community mobilisation interventions showed that PLA significantly reduced the prevalence of intermediate hyperglycaemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and the incidence of T2DM among adults in rural Bangladesh; mHealth improved knowledge but showed no effect on glycaemic outcomes. We explore the equity of intervention reach and impact.MethodsIntervention reach and primary outcomes of intermediate hyperglycaemia and T2DM were assessed through interview surveys and blood fasting glucose and 2-hour oral glucose tolerance tests among population-based samples of adults aged ≥30 years. Age-stratified, gender-stratified and wealth-stratified intervention effects were estimated using random effects logistic regression.ResultsPLA participants were similar to non-participants, though female participants were younger and more likely to be married than female non-participants. Differences including age, education, wealth and marital status were observed between individuals exposed and those not exposed to the mHealth intervention.PLA reduced the prevalence of T2DM and intermediate hyperglycaemia in all age, gender and wealth strata. Reductions in 2-year incidence of T2DM of at least 51% (0.49, 95% CI 0.26 to 0.92) were observed in all strata except among the oldest and least poor groups. mHealth impact on glycaemic outcomes was observed only among the youngest group, where a 47% reduction in the 2-year incidence of T2DM was observed (0.53, 95% CI 0.28 to 1.00).ConclusionLarge impacts of PLA across all strata indicate a highly effective and equitable intervention. mHealth may be more suitable for targeting higher risk, younger populations.Trial registration numberISRCTN41083256.
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| 14. |
- Ryan-Coker, MFD, et al.
(author)
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Economic burden of road traffic injuries in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review of existing literature
- 2021
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In: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:9, s. e048231-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This systematic review aims to explore and synthesise existing literature on the direct and indirect costs from road traffic injuries (RTIs) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the quality of existing evidence, methods used to estimate and report these costs, and the factors that drive the costs.MethodologyMEDLINE, SCOPUS, ProQuest Central, Web of Science, Global Index Medicus, Embase, World Bank Group e-Library, Econlit, Google Scholar and WHO webpages were searched for relevant literature. References of selected papers were also examined for related articles. Screening was done following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Articles were included in this review if they were published by March 2019, written in English, conducted in SSA and reported original findings on the cost of illness or economic burden of RTIs. The results were systematically examined, and the quality assessed by two reviewers using a modified Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.ResultsEleven studies met the inclusion criteria. RTIs can cost between INT$119 and 178 634 per injury and INT$486 and 12 845 per hospitalisation. Findings show variability in costing methods and inadequacies in the quality of existing evidence. Prolonged hospital stays, surgical sundries and severity of injury were the most common factors associated with cost.ConclusionWhile available data are limited, evidence shows that the economic burden of RTIs in SSA is high. Poor quality of existing evidence and heterogeneity in costing methods limit the generalisability of costs reported.
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| 15. |
- Skordis-Worrall, Jolene, et al.
(author)
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Protocol for the economic evaluation of a community-based intervention to improve growth among children under two in rural India (CARING trial)
- 2016
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In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 6:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: Undernutrition affects ∼165 million children globally and contributes up to 45% of all child deaths. India has the highest proportion of global undernutrition-related morbidity and mortality. This protocol describes the planned economic evaluation of a community-based intervention to improve growth in children under 2 years of age in two rural districts of eastern India. The intervention is being evaluated through a cluster-randomised controlled trial (cRCT, the CARING trial).METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis nested within a cRCT will be conducted from a societal perspective, measuring programme, provider, household and societal costs. Programme costs will be collected prospectively from project accounts using a standardised tool. These will be supplemented with time sheets and key informant interviews to inform the allocation of joint costs. Direct and indirect costs incurred by providers will be collected using key informant interviews and time use surveys. Direct and indirect household costs will be collected prospectively, using time use and consumption surveys. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) will be calculated for the primary outcome measure, that is, cases of stunting prevented, and other outcomes such as cases of wasting prevented, cases of infant mortality averted, life years saved and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted to assess the robustness of results.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: There is a shortage of robust evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of strategies to improve early child growth. As this economic evaluation is nested within a large scale, cRCT, it will contribute to understanding the fiscal space for investment in early child growth, and the relative (in)efficiency of prioritising resources to this intervention over others to prevent stunting in this and other comparable contexts. The protocol has all necessary ethical approvals and the findings will be disseminated within academia and the wider policy sphere.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN51505201; pre-results.
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