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1.
  • Adrian-Martinez, S., et al. (author)
  • A first search for coincident gravitational waves and high energy neutrinos using LIGO, Virgo and ANTARES data from 2007
  • 2013
  • In: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :6
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present the results of the first search for gravitational wave bursts associated with high energy neutrinos. Together, these messengers could reveal new, hidden sources that are not observed by conventional photon astronomy, particularly at high energy. Our search uses neutrinos detected by the underwater neutrino telescope ANTARES in its 5 line configuration during the period January - September 2007, which coincided with the fifth and first science runs of LIGO and Virgo, respectively. The LIGO-Virgo data were analysed for candidate gravitational-wave signals coincident in time and direction with the neutrino events. No significant coincident events were observed. We place limits on the density of joint high energy neutrino - gravitational wave emission events in the local universe, and compare them with densities of merger and core-collapse events.
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2.
  • Ruilope, LM, et al. (author)
  • Design and Baseline Characteristics of the Finerenone in Reducing Cardiovascular Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease Trial
  • 2019
  • In: American journal of nephrology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1421-9670 .- 0250-8095. ; 50:5, s. 345-356
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • <b><i>Background:</i></b> Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. <b><i>Patients and</i></b> <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥25 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 to ≤5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level α = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049.
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4.
  • Adrian-Martinez, S., et al. (author)
  • The First Combined Search For Neutrino Point-Sources In The Southern Hemisphere With The Antares And Icecube Neutrino Telescopes
  • 2016
  • In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 823:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present the results of searches for point-like sources of neutrinos based on the first combined analysis of data from both the ANTARES and IceCube neutrino telescopes. The combination of both detectors, which differ in size and location, forms a window in the southern sky where the sensitivity to point sources improves by up to a factor of 2 compared with individual analyses. Using data recorded by ANTARES from 2007 to 2012, and by IceCube from 2008 to 2011, we search for sources of neutrino emission both across the southern sky and from a preselected list of candidate objects. No significant excess over background has been found in these searches, and flux upper limits for the candidate sources are presented for E-2.5 and E-2 power-law spectra with different energy cut-offs.
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5.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (author)
  • State of the Climate in 2016
  • 2017
  • In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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6.
  • Hudson, Lawrence N, et al. (author)
  • The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
  • 2017
  • In: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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7.
  • Arndt, D. S., et al. (author)
  • STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
  • 2018
  • In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)
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8.
  • Beal, Jacob, et al. (author)
  • Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
  • 2020
  • In: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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9.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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10.
  • Elsik, Christine G., et al. (author)
  • The Genome Sequence of Taurine Cattle : A Window to Ruminant Biology and Evolution
  • 2009
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 324:5926, s. 522-528
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • To understand the biology and evolution of ruminants, the cattle genome was sequenced to about sevenfold coverage. The cattle genome contains a minimum of 22,000 genes, with a core set of 14,345 orthologs shared among seven mammalian species of which 1217 are absent or undetected in noneutherian (marsupial or monotreme) genomes. Cattle-specific evolutionary breakpoint regions in chromosomes have a higher density of segmental duplications, enrichment of repetitive elements, and species-specific variations in genes associated with lactation and immune responsiveness. Genes involved in metabolism are generally highly conserved, although five metabolic genes are deleted or extensively diverged from their human orthologs. The cattle genome sequence thus provides a resource for understanding mammalian evolution and accelerating livestock genetic improvement for milk and meat production.
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12.
  • Phillips, Helen R. P., et al. (author)
  • Global distribution of earthworm diversity
  • 2019
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 366:6464, s. 480-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Soil organisms, including earthworms, are a key component of terrestrial ecosystems. However, little is known about their diversity, their distribution, and the threats affecting them. We compiled a global dataset of sampled earthworm communities from 6928 sites in 57 countries as a basis for predicting patterns in earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass. We found that local species richness and abundance typically peaked at higher latitudes, displaying patterns opposite to those observed in aboveground organisms. However, high species dissimilarity across tropical locations may cause diversity across the entirety of the tropics to be higher than elsewhere. Climate variables were found to be more important in shaping earthworm communities than soil properties or habitat cover. These findings suggest that climate change may have serious implications for earthworm communities and for the functions they provide.
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13.
  • Bernal, Ximena E., et al. (author)
  • Empowering Latina scientists
  • 2019
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 363:6429, s. 825-826
  • Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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14.
  • Nguyen, Thanh N, et al. (author)
  • Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
  • 2023
  • In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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15.
  • The Seventeenth Data Release of the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys : Complete Release of MaNGA, MaStar, and APOGEE-2 Data
  • 2022
  • In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 259:2
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper documents the seventeenth data release (DR17) from the Sloan Digital Sky Surveys; the fifth and final release from the fourth phase (SDSS-IV). DR17 contains the complete release of the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey, which reached its goal of surveying over 10,000 nearby galaxies. The complete release of the MaNGA Stellar Library accompanies this data, providing observations of almost 30,000 stars through the MaNGA instrument during bright time. DR17 also contains the complete release of the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 survey that publicly releases infrared spectra of over 650,000 stars. The main sample from the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), as well as the subsurvey Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey data were fully released in DR16. New single-fiber optical spectroscopy released in DR17 is from the SPectroscipic IDentification of ERosita Survey subsurvey and the eBOSS-RM program. Along with the primary data sets, DR17 includes 25 new or updated value-added catalogs. This paper concludes the release of SDSS-IV survey data. SDSS continues into its fifth phase with observations already underway for the Milky Way Mapper, Local Volume Mapper, and Black Hole Mapper surveys.
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16.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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17.
  • Adamson, Carly, et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin for Heart Failure According to Body Mass Index : The DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: European heart journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 43:41, s. 4406-4417
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: Obesity is common and associated with unique phenotypic features in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Therefore, understanding the efficacy and safety of new therapies in HFpEF patients with obesity is important. The effects of dapagliflozin were examined according to body mass index (BMI) among patients in the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure trial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Body mass index was analysed by World Health Organization (WHO) categories and as a continuous variable using restricted cubic splines. Body mass index ranged from 15.2 to 50 kg/m2 with a mean value of 29.8 (standard deviation +/- 6.1) kg/m2. The proportions, by WHO category, were: normal weight 1343 (21.5%); overweight 2073 (33.1%); Class I obesity 1574 (25.2%); Class II obesity 798 (12.8%); and Class III obesity 415 (6.6%). Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary outcome to a similar extent across these categories: hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.89 (0.69-1.15), 0.87 (0.70-1.08), 0.74 (0.58-0.93), 0.78 (0.57-1.08), and 0.72 (0.47-1.08), respectively (P-interaction = 0.82). The placebo-corrected change in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom score with dapagliflozin at 8 months was: 0.9 (-1.1, 2.8), 2.5 (0.8, 4.1), 1.9 (-0.1, 3.8), 2.7 (-0.5, 5.8), and 8.6 (4.0, 13.2) points, respectively (P-interaction = 0.03). The placebo-corrected change in weight at 12 months was: -0.88 (-1.28, -0.47), -0.65 (-1.04, -0.26), -1.42 (-1.89, -0.94), -1.17 (-1.94, -0.40), and -2.50 (-4.4, -0.64) kg (P-interaction = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Obesity is common in patients with HFpEF and is associated with higher rates of heart failure hospitalization and worse health status. Treatment with dapagliflozin improves cardiovascular outcomes across the spectrum of BMI, leads to greater symptom improvement in patients with obesity, compared with those without, and has the additional benefit of causing modest weight loss.
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18.
  • Bhatt, Ankeet S., et al. (author)
  • Operational Challenges and Mitigation Measures during the COVID-19 Pandemic-Lessons from DELIVER.
  • 2023
  • In: American heart journal. ; 263, s. 133-140
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Catastrophic disruptions in care delivery threaten the operational efficiency and potentially the validity of clinical research efforts, in particular randomized clinical trials. Most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic affected essentially all aspects of care delivery and clinical research conduct. While consensus statements and clinical guidance documents have detailed potential mitigation measures, few real- world experiences detailing clinical trial adaptations to the COVID-19 pandemic exist, particularly among, large, global registrational cardiovascular trials. METHODS: We outline the operational impact of COVID-19 and resultant mitigation measures in the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients with Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial, one of the largest and most globally diverse experiences with COVID-19 of any cardiovascular clinical trial to date. Specifically, we address the needed coordination between academic investigators, trial leadership, clinical sites, and the supporting sponsor to ensure the safety of participants and trial staff, to maintain the fidelity of trial operations, and to prospectively adapt statistical analyses plans to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 and the pandemic at large on trial participants. These discussions included key operational issues such as ensuring delivery of study medications, adaptations to study visits, enhanced COVID-19 related endpoint adjudication, and protocol and analytical plan revisions. CONCLUSION: Our findings may have important implications for establishing consensus on prospective contingency planning in future clinical trials. CLINICALTRIAL: gov: NCT03619213. CLINICALTRIAL: GOV: NCT03619213.
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19.
  • Bielecka-Dabrowa, Agata, et al. (author)
  • Association of statin use and clinical outcomes in heart failure patients : a systematic review and meta-analysis
  • 2019
  • In: Lipids in Health and Disease. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1476-511X. ; 18:1
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The role of statins in patients with heart failure (HF) of different levels of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear especially in the light of the absence of prospective data from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in non-ischemic HF, and taking into account potential statins’ prosarcopenic effects. We assessed the association of statin use with clinical outcomes in patients with HF.Methods: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, Google Scholar and Cochrane Central until August 2018 for RCTs and prospective cohorts comparing clinical outcomes with statin vs non-statin use in patients with HF at different LVEF levels. We followed the guidelines of the 2009 PRISMA statement for reporting and applied independent extraction by multiple observers. Meta-analyses of hazard ratios (HRs) of effects of statins on clinical outcomes used generic inverse variance method and random model effects. Clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular (CV) mortality and CV hospitalization.Results: Finally we included 17 studies (n = 88,100; 2 RCTs and 15 cohorts) comparing statin vs non-statin users (mean follow-up 36 months). Compared with non-statin use, statin use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72–0.83, P < 0.0001, I2 = 63%), CV mortality (HR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.76–0.88, P < 0.0001, I2 = 63%), and CV hospitalization (HR 0.78, 95% CI: 0.69–0.89, P = 0.0003, I2 = 36%). All-cause mortality was reduced on statin therapy in HF with both EF < 40% and ≥ 40% (HR: 0.77, 95% Cl: 0.68–0.86, P < 0.00001, and HR 0.75, 95% CI: 0.69–0.82, P < 0.00001, respectively). Similarly, CV mortality (HR 0.86, 95% CI: 0.79–0.93, P = 0.0003, and HR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.77–0.90, P < 0.00001, respectively), and CV hospitalizations (HR 0.80 95% CI: 0.64–0.99, P = 0.04 and HR 0.76 95% CI: 0.61–0.93, P = 0.009, respectively) were reduced in these EF subgroups. Significant effects on all clinical outcomes were also found in cohort studies’ analyses; the effect was also larger and significant for lipophilic than hydrophilic statins.Conclusions: In conclusion, statins may have a beneficial effect on CV outcomes irrespective of HF etiology and LVEF level. Lipophilic statins seem to be much more favorable for patients with heart failure.
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20.
  • Burisch, Johan, et al. (author)
  • Initial Disease Course and Treatment in an Inflammatory Bowel Disease Inception Cohort in Europe : The ECCO-EpiCom Cohort
  • 2014
  • In: Inflammatory Bowel Diseases. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 1078-0998 .- 1536-4844. ; 20:1, s. 36-46
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background:The EpiCom cohort is a prospective, population-based, inception cohort of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients from 31 European centers covering a background population of 10.1 million. The aim of this study was to assess the 1-year outcome in the EpiCom cohort.Methods:Patients were followed-up every third month during the first 12 (3) months, and clinical data, demographics, disease activity, medical therapy, surgery, cancers, and deaths were collected and entered in a Web-based database (www.epicom-ecco.eu).Results:In total, 1367 patients were included in the 1-year follow-up. In western Europe, 65 Crohn's disease (CD) (16%), 20 ulcerative colitis (UC) (4%), and 4 IBD unclassified (4%) patients underwent surgery, and in eastern Europe, 12 CD (12%) and 2 UC (1%) patients underwent surgery. Eighty-one CD (20%), 80 UC (14%), and 13 (9%) IBD unclassified patients were hospitalized in western Europe compared with 17 CD (16%) and 12 UC (8%) patients in eastern Europe. The cumulative probability of receiving immunomodulators was 57% for CD in western (median time to treatment 2 months) and 44% (1 month) in eastern Europe, and 21% (5 months) and 5% (6 months) for biological therapy, respectively. For UC patients, the cumulative probability was 22% (4 months) and 15% (3 months) for immunomodulators and 6% (3 months) and 1% (12 months) for biological therapy, respectively in the western and eastern Europe.Discussion:In this cohort, immunological therapy was initiated within the first months of disease. Surgery and hospitalization rates did not differ between patients from eastern and western Europe, although more western European patients received biological agents and were comparable to previous population-based inception cohorts.
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21.
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22.
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23.
  • Butt, Jawad H., et al. (author)
  • Atrial Fibrillation and Dapagliflozin Efficacy in Patients With Preserved or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.
  • 2022
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:18, s. 1705-1717
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in heart failure (HF), is associated with worse outcomes compared with sinus rhythm, and may modify the effects of therapy. OBJECTIVES: This study examined the effects of dapagliflozin according to the presence or not of AF in the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial. METHODS: A total of 6,263 patients with HF with New York Heart Association functional class II-IV, left ventricular ejection fraction $>$40%, evidence of structural heart disease, and elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels were randomized to dapagliflozin or placebo. Clinical outcomes and the effect of dapagliflozin, according to AF status, were examined. The primary outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death or worsening HF. RESULTS: Of the 6,261 patients with data on baseline AF, 43.3% had no AF, 18.0% had paroxysmal AF, and 38.7% had persistent/permanent AF. The risk of the primary endpoint was higher in patients with AF, especially paroxysmal AF, driven by a higher rate of HF hospitalization: no AF, HF hospitalization rate per 100 person-years (4.5 [95% CI: 4.0-5.1]), paroxysmal AF (7.5 [95% CI: 6.4-8.7]), and persistent/permanent AF (6.4 [95% CI: 5.7-7.1]) (P $<$ 0.001). The benefit of dapagliflozin on the primary outcome was consistent across AF types: no AF, HR: 0.89 (95% CI: 0.74-1.08); paroxysmal AF, HR: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.58-0.97); persistent/permanent AF, HR: 0.79 (95% CI: 0.66-0.95) (Pinteraction = 0.49). Consistent effects were observed for HF hospitalization, cardiovascular death, all-cause mortality, and improvement in the KCCQ- TSS. CONCLUSIONS: In DELIVER, the beneficial effects of dapagliflozin compared with placebo on clinical events and symptoms were consistent, irrespective of type of AF at baseline. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure. [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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24.
  • Butt, Jawad H., et al. (author)
  • Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin According to Frailty in Patients With Heart Failure : A Prespecified Analysis of the DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: Circulation. ; 146:16, s. 1210-1224
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasing in prevalence. Because patients with frailty are often perceived to have a less favorable risk/benefit profile, they may be less likely to receive new pharmacologic treatments. We investigated the efficacy and tolerability of dapagliflozin according to frailty status in patients with heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction randomized in DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure). METHODS: Frailty was measured using the Rockwood cumulative deficit approach. The primary end point was time to a first worsening heart failure event or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of the 6263 patients randomized, a frailty index (FI) was calculable in 6258. In total, 2354 (37.6%) patients had class 1 frailty (FI $<$/=0.210; ie, not frail), 2413 (38.6%) had class 2 frailty (FI 0.211-0.310; ie, more frail), and 1491 (23.8%) had class 3 frailty (FI $>$/=0.311; ie, most frail). Greater frailty was associated with a higher rate of the primary end point (per 100 person-years): FI class 1, 6.3 (95% CI 5.7-7.1); class 2, 8.3 (7.5-9.1); and class 3, 13.4 (12.1-14.7; P$<$0.001). The effect of dapagliflozin (as a hazard ratio) on the primary end point from FI class 1 to 3 was 0.85 (95% CI, 0.68-1.06), 0.89 (0.74-1.08), and 0.74 (0.61-0.91), respectively (Pinteraction=0.40). Although patients with a greater degree of frailty had worse Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores at baseline, their improvement with dapagliflozin was greater than it was in patients with less frailty: placebo-corrected improvement in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Overall Summary Score at 4 months in FI class 1 was 0.3 (95% CI, -0.9 to 1.4); in class 2, 1.5 (0.3-2.7); and in class 3, 3.4 (1.7-5.1; Pinteraction=0.021). Adverse reactions and treatment discontinuation, although more frequent in patients with a greater degree of frailty, were not more common with dapagliflozin than with placebo irrespective of frailty class. CONCLUSIONS: In DELIVER, frailty was common and associated with worse outcomes. The benefit of dapagliflozin was consistent across the range of frailty studied. The improvement in health-related quality of life with dapagliflozin occurred early and was greater in patients with a higher level of frailty. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03619213.
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25.
  • Bytyci, Ibadete, et al. (author)
  • Prevalence of statin intolerance : a meta-analysis
  • 2022
  • In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 43:34, s. 3213-3223
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: Statin intolerance (SI) represents a significant public health problem for which precise estimates of prevalence are needed. Statin intolerance remains an important clinical challenge, and it is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This meta-analysis estimates the overall prevalence of SI, the prevalence according to different diagnostic criteria and in different disease settings, and identifies possible risk factors/conditions that might increase the risk of SI. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched several databases up to 31 May 2021, for studies that reported the prevalence of SI. The primary endpoint was overall prevalence and prevalence according to a range of diagnostic criteria [National Lipid Association (NLA), International Lipid Expert Panel (ILEP), and European Atherosclerosis Society (EAS)] and in different disease settings. The secondary endpoint was to identify possible risk factors for SI. A random-effects model was applied to estimate the overall pooled prevalence. A total of 176 studies [112 randomized controlled trials (RCTs); 64 cohort studies] with 4 143 517 patients were ultimately included in the analysis. The overall prevalence of SI was 9.1% (95% confidence interval 8.0-10%). The prevalence was similar when defined using NLA, ILEP, and EAS criteria [7.0% (6.0-8.0%), 6.7% (5.0-8.0%), 5.9% (4.0-7.0%), respectively]. The prevalence of SI in RCTs was significantly lower compared with cohort studies [4.9% (4.0-6.0%) vs. 17% (14-19%)]. The prevalence of SI in studies including both primary and secondary prevention patients was much higher than when primary or secondary prevention patients were analysed separately [18% (14-21%), 8.2% (6.0-10%), 9.1% (6.0-11%), respectively]. Statin lipid solubility did not affect the prevalence of SI [4.0% (2.0-5.0%) vs. 5.0% (4.0-6.0%)]. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.33, P = 0.04], female gender (OR 1.47, P = 0.007), Asian and Black race (P < 0.05 for both), obesity (OR 1.30, P = 0.02), diabetes mellitus (OR 1.26, P = 0.02), hypothyroidism (OR 1.37, P = 0.01), chronic liver, and renal failure (P < 0.05 for both) were significantly associated with SI in the meta-regression model. Antiarrhythmic agents, calcium channel blockers, alcohol use, and increased statin dose were also associated with a higher risk of SI. CONCLUSION: Based on the present analysis of >4 million patients, the prevalence of SI is low when diagnosed according to international definitions. These results support the concept that the prevalence of complete SI might often be overestimated and highlight the need for the careful assessment of patients with potential symptoms related to SI.
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26.
  • Cunningham, Jonathan W., et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin in Patients Recently Hospitalized With Heart Failure and Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.
  • 2022
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:14, s. 1302-1310
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Patients recently hospitalized for heart failure (HF) are at high risk for rehospitalization and death. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate clinical outcomes and response to dapagliflozin in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) who were enrolled during or following hospitalization. METHODS: The DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVES of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial randomized patients with HF and LVEF $>$40% to dapagliflozin or placebo. DELIVER permitted randomization during or shortly after hospitalization for HF in clinically stable patients off intravenous HF therapies. This prespecified analysis investigated whether recent HF hospitalization modified risk of clinical events or response to dapagliflozin. The primary outcome was worsening HF event or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: Of 6,263 patients in DELIVER, 654 (10.4%) were randomized during HF hospitalization or within 30 days of discharge. Recent HF hospitalization was associated with greater risk of the primary outcome after multivariable adjustment (HR: 1.88; 95% CI: 1.60-2.21; P $<$ 0.001). Dapagliflozin reduced the primary outcome by 22% in recently hospitalized patients (HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.60-1.03) and 18% in patients without recent hospitalization (HR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.72-0.94; Pinteraction = 0.71). Rates of adverse events, including volume depletion, diabetic ketoacidosis, or renal events, were similar with dapagliflozin and placebo in recently hospitalized patients. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin safely reduced risk of worsening HF or cardiovascular death similarly in patients with and without history of recent HF hospitalization. Starting dapagliflozin during or shortly after HF hospitalization in patients with mildly reduced or preserved LVEF appears safe and effective. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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27.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (author)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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28.
  • Hasselquist, Sten, et al. (author)
  • APOGEE Chemical Abundance Patterns of the Massive Milky Way Satellites
  • 2021
  • In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 923:2
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The SDSS-IV Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey has obtained high-resolution spectra for thousands of red giant stars distributed among the massive satellite galaxies of the Milky Way (MW): the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC/SMC), the Sagittarius Dwarf Galaxy (Sgr), Fornax (Fnx), and the now fully disrupted Gaia Sausage/Enceladus (GSE) system. We present and analyze the APOGEE chemical abundance patterns of each galaxy to draw robust conclusions about their star formation histories, by quantifying the relative abundance trends of multiple elements (C, N, O, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Fe, Ni, and Ce), as well as by fitting chemical evolution models to the [α/Fe]-[Fe/H] abundance plane for each galaxy. Results show that the chemical signatures of the starburst in the Magellanic Clouds (MCs) observed by Nidever et al. in the α-element abundances extend to C+N, Al, and Ni, with the major burst in the SMC occurring some 3-4 Gyr before the burst in the LMC. We find that Sgr and Fnx also exhibit chemical abundance patterns suggestive of secondary star formation epochs, but these events were weaker and earlier (∼5-7 Gyr ago) than those observed in the MCs. There is no chemical evidence of a second starburst in GSE, but this galaxy shows the strongest initial star formation as compared to the other four galaxies. All dwarf galaxies had greater relative contributions of AGB stars to their enrichment than the MW. Comparing and contrasting these chemical patterns highlight the importance of galaxy environment on its chemical evolution.
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29.
  • Hernández, Adrián V., et al. (author)
  • Effects of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes : benefit and harm in different age subgroups
  • 2007
  • In: Heart. - : BMJ. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 93:4, s. 450-455
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether the beneficial and harmful effects of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTE-ACS) depend on age. METHODS: A meta-analysis of six trials of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers in patients with NSTE-ACS (PRISM, PRISM-PLUS, PARAGON-A, PURSUIT, PARAGON-B, GUSTO IV-ACS; n = 31 402) was performed. We applied multivariable logistic regression analyses to evaluate the drug effects on death or non-fatal myocardial infarction at 30 days, and on major bleeding, by age subgroups (<60, 60-69, 70-79, > or =80 years). We quantified the reduction of death or myocardial infarction as the number needed to treat (NNT), and the increase of major bleeding as the number needed to harm (NNH). RESULTS: Subgroups had 11 155 (35%), 9727 (31%), 8468 (27%) and 2049 (7%) patients, respectively. The relative benefit of platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers did not differ significantly (p = 0.5) between age subgroups (OR (95% CI) for death or myocardial infarction: 0.86 (0.74 to 0.99), 0.90 (0.80 to 1.02), 0.97 (0.86 to 1.10), 0.90 (0.73 to 1.16); overall 0.91 (0.86 to 0.99). ORs for major bleeding were 1.9 (1.3 to 2.8), 1.9 (1.4 to 2.7), 1.6 (1.2 to 2.1) and 2.5 (1.5-4.1). Overall NNT was 105, and overall NNH was 90. The oldest patients had larger absolute increases in major bleeding, but also had the largest absolute reductions of death or myocardial infarction. Patients > or =80 years had half of the NNT and a third of the NNH of patients <60 years. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NSTE-ACS, the relative reduction of death or non-fatal myocardial infarction with platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa receptor blockers was independent of patient age. Larger absolute outcome reductions were seen in older patients, but with a higher risk of major bleeding. Close monitoring of these patients is warranted.
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30.
  • Islar, Mine, et al. (author)
  • Diverse values of nature for sustainability
  • 2022
  • In: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 620, s. 813-823
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Twenty-five years since foundational publications on valuing ecosystem services for human well-being1,2, addressing the global biodiversity crisis3 still implies confronting barriers to incorporating nature’s diverse values into decision-making. These barriers include powerful interests supported by current norms and legal rules such as property rights, which determine whose values and which values of nature are acted on. A better understanding of how and why nature is (under)valued is more urgent than ever4. Notwithstanding agreements to incorporate nature’s values into actions, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF)5 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals6, predominant environmental and development policies still prioritize a subset of values, particularly those linked to markets, and ignore other ways people relate to and benefit from nature7. Arguably, a ‘values crisis’ underpins the intertwined crises of biodiversity loss and climate change8, pandemic emergence9 and socio-environmental injustices10. On the basis of more than 50,000 scientific publications, policy documents and Indigenous and local knowledge sources, the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) assessed knowledge on nature’s diverse values and valuation methods to gain insights into their role in policymaking and fuller integration into decisions7,11. Applying this evidence, combinations of values-centred approaches are proposed to improve valuation and address barriers to uptake, ultimately leveraging transformative changes towards more just (that is, fair treatment of people and nature, including inter- and intragenerational equity) and sustainable futures.
  •  
31.
  • Jhund, Pardeep S., et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin across the Range of Ejection Fraction in Patients with Heart Failure : A Patient-Level, Pooled Meta-Analysis of DAPA-HF and DELIVER.
  • 2022
  • In: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 28:9, s. 1956-1964
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Whether the sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor dapagliflozin reduces the risk of a range of morbidity and mortality outcomes in patients with heart failure regardless of ejection fraction is unknown. A patient-level pooled meta-analysis of two trials testing dapagliflozin in participants with heart failure and different ranges of left ventricular ejection fraction ($<$/=40% and $>$40%) was pre-specified to examine the effect of treatment on endpoints that neither trial, individually, was powered for and to test the consistency of the effect of dapagliflozin across the range of ejection fractions. The pre-specified endpoints were: death from cardiovascular causes; death from any cause; total hospital admissions for heart failure; and the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction or stroke (major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs)). A total of 11,007 participants with a mean ejection fraction of 44% (s.d. 14%) were included. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.76-0.97; P = 0.01), death from any cause (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99; P = 0.03), total hospital admissions for heart failure (rate ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.65-0.78; P $<$ 0.001) and MACEs (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.00; P = 0.045). There was no evidence that the effect of dapagliflozin differed by ejection fraction. In a patient- level pooled meta-analysis covering the full range of ejection fractions in patients with heart failure, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and hospital admissions for heart failure (PROSPERO: CRD42022346524).
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32.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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33.
  • Kosiborod, Mikhail N., et al. (author)
  • Effect of Dapagliflozin on Health Status in Patients With Preserved or Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction.
  • 2023
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 81:5, s. 460-473
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Patients with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) experience a high burden of symptoms, physical limitations, and poor quality of life; improving health status is a key goal of management. OBJECTIVES: In a prespecified analysis of the DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial, we examine effects of dapagliflozin on health status using the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). METHODS: The DELIVER trial randomized patients with symptomatic HFmrEF/HFpEF to dapagliflozin 10 mg or placebo. KCCQ was evaluated at randomization, 1, 4, and 8 months; KCCQ Total Symptom Score (TSS) was a key secondary endpoint. Patients were stratified by KCCQ-TSS tertiles; Cox models examined effects of dapagliflozin on clinical outcomes. We evaluated the effects of dapagliflozin on KCCQ-TSS, Physical Limitations (PLS), Clinical Summary (CSS), and Overall Summary (OSS) domains. Responder analyses compared proportions of dapagliflozin vs placebo-treated patients with clinically meaningful changes in KCCQ. RESULTS: A total of 5,795 patients had baseline KCCQ (median KCCQ-TSS 72.9). The effects of dapagliflozin on reducing cardiovascular death/worsening HF appeared more pronounced in patients with greater baseline symptom burden (lowest-to-highest KCCQ-TSS tertile: HR: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.58-0.84]; 0.81 [95% CI: 0.65-1.01]; 1.07 [95% CI: 0.83-1.37]; Pinteraction = 0.026). Dapagliflozin improved KCCQ-TSS, -PLS, -CSS, and -OSS at 8 months (2.4, 1.9, 2.3, and 2.1 points higher vs placebo; P $<$ 0.001 for all). Dapagliflozin-treated patients experienced improvements in KCCQ-TSS regardless of EF (Pinteraction = 0.85). Fewer dapagliflozin- treated patients had deterioration, and more had improvements in all KCCQ domains at 8 months. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical benefits of dapagliflozin in HFmrEF/HFpEF appear especially pronounced in those with greater baseline symptom impairment. Dapagliflozin improved all KCCQ domains and the proportion of patients experiencing clinically meaningful changes in health status. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
  •  
34.
  • Mazidi, Mohsen, et al. (author)
  • Association of types of dietary fats and all-cause and cause-specific mortality: A prospective cohort study and meta-analysis of prospective studies with 1,164,029 participants
  • 2020
  • In: Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-1983 .- 0261-5614. ; 39:12, s. 3677-3686
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background:Associations between dietary fats and mortality are unclear. Methods: We evaluated the relationship between quartiles of total fat, mono-unsaturated (MUFA), polyunsaturated (PUFA) and saturated fatty acid (SFA) consumption, and all-cause, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and type 2 diabetes (T2D)-associated mortality in 24,144 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 1999-2010. We added our results to a meta-analysis based on searches until November 2018. Results: In fully adjusted Cox-proportional hazard models in our prospective study, there was an inverse association between total fat (HR: 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.82, 0.99, Q4 vs Q1) and PUFA (0.81, 0.78-0.84) consumption and all-cause mortality, whereas SFA were associated with the increased mortality (1.08, 1.04-1.11). In the meta-analysis of 29 prospective cohorts (n = 1,164,029) we found a significant inverse association between total fat (0.89, 0.82-0.97), MUFA (0.94, 0.89-0.99) and PUFA (0.89, 0.84-0.94) consumption and all-cause mortality. No association was observed between total fat and CVD (0.93, 0.80-1.08) or CHD mortality (1.03 0.99-1.09). A significant association between SFA intake and CHD mortality (1.10, 1.01-1.21) was observed. Neither MUFA nor PUFA were associated with CVD or CHD mortality. Inverse associations were observed between MUFA (0.80, 0.67-0.96) and PUFA (0.84, 0.80-0.90) intakes and stroke mortality. Conclusions: We showed differential associations of total fat, MUFA and PUFA with all-cause mortality, but not CVD or CHD mortalities. SFA was associated with higher all-cause mortality in NHANES and with CHD mortality in our meta-analysis. The type of fat intake appears to be associated with important health outcomes. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism.
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35.
  • McDowell, Kirsty, et al. (author)
  • Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure with Preserved Ejection Fraction
  • 2024
  • In: JAMA Cardiology. - 2380-6583. ; 9:5, s. 457-465
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Importance: Accurate risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) may help clinicians risk stratify and inform care decisions. Objective: To develop and validate a novel prediction model for clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF using routinely collected variables and to compare it with a biomarker-driven approach. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were used from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial to derive the prediction model, and data from the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibition in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) and the Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (I-PRESERVE) trials were used to validate it. The outcomes were the composite of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. A total of 30 baseline candidate variables were selected in a stepwise fashion using multivariable analyses to create the models. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023. Exposures: Models to estimate the 1-year and 2-year risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Results: Data from 6263 individuals in the DELIVER trial were used to derive the prediction model and data from 4796 individuals in the PARAGON-HF trial and 4128 individuals in the I-PRESERVE trial were used to validate it. The final prediction model for the composite outcome included 11 variables: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, HFH within the past 6 months, creatinine level, diabetes, geographic region, HF duration, treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transient ischemic attack/stroke, any previous HFH, and heart rate. This model showed good discrimination (C statistic at 1 year, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) in both validation cohorts (C statistic at 1 year, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74 in PARAGON-HF and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.78 in I-PRESERVE) and calibration. The model showed similar discrimination to a biomarker-driven model including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and significantly better discrimination than the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) risk score (C statistic at 1 year, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63; delta C statistic, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.15; P <.001) and NT-proBNP level alone (C statistic at 1 year, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68; delta C statistic, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; P <.001). Models derived for the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death also performed well. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk. Conclusions and Relevance: In this prognostic study, a robust prediction model for clinical outcomes in HFpEF was developed and validated using routinely collected variables. The model performed better than NT-proBNP level alone. The model may help clinicians to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment decisions in HFpEF..
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36.
  • Myhre, Peder L., et al. (author)
  • Influence of NT-proBNP on Efficacy of Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.
  • 2022
  • In: JACC. Heart failure. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1779. ; 10:12, s. 902-913
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is used for diagnostic and prognostic evaluation in heart failure (HF). Previous clinical trials in heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have shown potential heterogeneity in the treatment response by baseline NT- proBNP levels. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the treatment effect of dapagliflozin across baseline levels of NT-proBNP among patients with HFmrEF or HFpEF. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis from DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure), a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of dapagliflozin in patients with HFmrEF or HFpEF. Elevated NT-proBNP was part of the inclusion criteria ($>$/=300 ng/L for non-atrial fibrillation or flutter [AFF]; $>$/=600 ng/L for AFF). Baseline NT-proBNP was categorized in quartiles and additionally analyzed continuously. The primary composite outcome was cardiovascular death or worsening HF events. RESULTS: Among the 6,262 included patients (mean: 71.7 years and 3,516 [56%] men), the median baseline concentration of NT- proBNP was 716 (Q1-Q3: 469-1,280) ng/L and 1,399 (Q1-Q3: 962-2,212) ng/L for non-AFF and AFF, respectively. Higher NT-proBNP levels were linearly associated with a greater risk of the primary outcome (adjusted HR for log2NTpro-BNP was 1.53 [95% CI: 1.46-1.62] and Q4 vs Q1: 3.46 [95% CI: 2.48-4.22]; P $<$ 0.001), with consistent results regardless of AFF status. The clinical benefit of dapagliflozin was present irrespective of baseline NT-proBNP concentration (P value for interaction = 0.40 by quartiles and = 0.19 continuously for the primary outcome) and the absolute risk reduction was, therefore, greater with higher NT-proBNP concentrations. The effect on health status and safety of dapagliflozin was similarly consistent across NT-proBNP quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin is safe and improves outcomes irrespective of baseline NT- proBNP concentrations in HFmrEF or HFpEF, with the greatest absolute benefit likely seen in patients with higher NT-proBNP concentrations. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [DELIVER]; NCT03619213).
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37.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
  •  
38.
  • Ort, Christoph, et al. (author)
  • Spatial differences and temporal changes in illicit drug use in Europe quantified by wastewater analysis
  • 2014
  • In: Addiction. - : Wiley. - 0965-2140 .- 1360-0443. ; 109:8, s. 1338-1352
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Aims To perform wastewater analyses to assess spatial differences and temporal changes of illicit drug use in a large European population. Design Analyses of raw wastewater over a 1-week period in 2012 and 2013. Setting and Participants Catchment areas of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) across Europe, as follows: 2012: 25 WWTPs in 11 countries (23 cities, total population 11.50 million); 2013: 47 WWTPs in 21 countries (42 cities, total population 24.74 million). Measurements Excretion products of five illicit drugs (cocaine, amphetamine, ecstasy, methamphetamine, cannabis) were quantified in wastewater samples using methods based on liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry. Findings Spatial differences were assessed and confirmed to vary greatly across European metropolitan areas. In general, results were in agreement with traditional surveillance data, where available. While temporal changes were substantial in individual cities and years (P ranging from insignificant to <10(-3)), overall means were relatively stable. The overall mean of methamphetamine was an exception (apparent decline in 2012), as it was influenced mainly by four cities. Conclusions Wastewater analysis performed across Europe provides complementary evidence on illicit drug consumption and generally concurs with traditional surveillance data. Wastewater analysis can measure total illicit drug use more quickly and regularly than is the current norm for national surveys, and creates estimates where such data does not exist.
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39.
  • Ostrominski, John W., et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin and New York Heart Association Functional Class in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction : The DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: European journal of heart failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 24:10, s. 1892-1901
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: This pre-specified analysis of the DELIVER trial examined whether clinical benefits of dapagliflozin in heart failure (HF) with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) $>$40% varied by baseline New York Heart Association (NYHA) class and examined the treatment effects on NYHA class over time. METHODS AND RESULTS: Treatment effects of dapagliflozin by baseline NYHA class II (n = 4713) versus III/IV (n = 1549) were examined on the primary endpoint (cardiovascular death or worsening HF event) and key secondary endpoints. Effects of dapagliflozin on change in NYHA class at 4, 16, and 32 weeks were also evaluated. Higher baseline NYHA class was associated with older age, female sex, greater comorbidity burden, lower LVEF, and higher natriuretic peptide levels. Participants with baseline NYHA class III/IV, as compared with II, were independently more likely to experience the primary endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.16 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.33]) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 1.22 [1.06-1.40]). Dapagliflozin consistently reduced the risk of the primary endpoint compared with placebo, irrespective of baseline NYHA class (HR 0.81 [0.70-0.94] for NYHA class II vs. HR 0.80 [0.65-0.98] for NYHA class III/IV; pinteraction = 0.921). Participants with NYHA class III/IV had greater improvement in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire total symptom scores between baseline and 32 weeks (+4.8 [2.5-7.1]) versus NYHA class II (+1.8 [0.7-2.9]; pinteraction = 0.011). Dapagliflozin was associated with higher odds of any improvement in NYHA class (odds ratio [OR] 1.32 [1.16-1.51]), as well as improvement to NYHA class I (OR 1.43 [1.17-1.75]), versus placebo at 32 weeks, with benefits seen as early as 4 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: Among symptomatic patients with HF and LVEF $>$40%, treatment with dapagliflozin provided clinical benefit irrespective of baseline NYHA class and was associated with early and sustained improvements in NYHA class over time.
  •  
40.
  • Peikert, Alexander, et al. (author)
  • Efficacy and Safety of Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction According to Age : The DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: Circulation. Heart failure. ; 15:10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The prevalence of heart failure with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction markedly increases with age, with older individuals disproportionately facing excess risk for mortality and hospitalization. METHODS: The DELIVER trial (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) randomized patients with New York Heart Association functional class II-IV and left ventricular ejection fraction $>$40% to either dapagliflozin or placebo for a median follow-up period of 2.3 years. We examined efficacy and safety outcomes by age categories ($<$55, 55-64, 65-74, and $>$/=75 years) and across age as a continuous measure. RESULTS: Among 6263 randomized patients (aged 40-99 years, mean age 71.7+/-9.6 years), 338 (5.4%) were $<$55 years, 1007 (16.1%) were 55-64 years, 2326 (37.1%) were 65 to 74 years, and 2592 (41.4%) were $>$/=75 years. Dapagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome compared with placebo in all age categories (Pinteraction=0.95) and across the age spectrum as a continuous function (Pinteraction=0.76). Similar benefits were observed for the components of the primary outcome, with no significant interaction between randomized treatment and age category. Adverse events occurred more frequently with increasing age, but there were no significant differences in predefined safety outcomes between patients randomized to dapagliflozin and placebo across all age categories. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with heart failure and mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction enrolled in DELIVER, dapagliflozin reduced the combined risk of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure events across the spectrum of age, with a consistent safety profile, including among the traditionally under-treated older segment of patients $>$/=75 years. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03619213.
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41.
  • Proletov, Ian, et al. (author)
  • Primary and secondary glomerulonephritides 1.
  • 2014
  • In: Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2385. ; 29 Suppl 3:May, s. 186-200
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
  •  
42.
  • Santangelo, James S., et al. (author)
  • Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover
  • 2022
  • In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 375
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural dines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale.
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43.
  • Solomon, Scott D., et al. (author)
  • Baseline Characteristics of Patients With HF With Mildly Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction : DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: JACC. Heart failure. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1779. ; 10:3, s. 184-197
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES: This report describes the baseline clinical profiles and management of DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure) trial participants and how these compare with those in other contemporary heart failure with preserved ejection fraction trials. BACKGROUND: The DELIVER trial was designed to evaluate the effects of the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin on cardiovascular death, heart failure (HF) hospitalization, or urgent HF visits in patients with HF with mildly reduced and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). METHODS: Adults with symptomatic HF and LVEF $>$40%, with or without type 2 diabetes mellitus, elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels, and evidence of structural heart disease were randomized to dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily or matching placebo. RESULTS: A total of 6,263 patients were randomized (mean age: 72 +/- 10 years; 44% women; 45% type 2 diabetes mellitus; 45% with body mass index $>$/=30 kg/m(2); and 57% with history of atrial fibrillation or flutter). Most participants had New York Heart Association functional class II symptoms (75%). Baseline mean LVEF was 54.2 +/- 8.8% and median NT-proBNP of 1,399 pg/mL (IQR: 962 to 2,210 pg/mL) for patients in atrial fibrillation/flutter compared with 716 pg/mL (IQR: 469 to 1,281 pg/mL) in those who were not. Patients in both hospitalized and ambulatory settings were enrolled, including 10% enrolled in-hospital or within 30 days of a hospitalization for HF. Eighteen percent of participants had HF with improved LVEF. CONCLUSIONS: DELIVER is the largest and broadest clinical trial of this population to date and enrolled high-risk, well-treated patients with HF with mildly reduced and preserved LVEF. (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure [NCT03619213]).
  •  
44.
  • Solomon, Scott D., et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure with Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction.
  • 2022
  • In: The New England journal of medicine. ; 387:12, s. 1089-1098
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of hospitalization for heart failure and cardiovascular death among patients with chronic heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 40% or less. Whether SGLT2 inhibitors are effective in patients with a higher left ventricular ejection fraction remains less certain. METHODS: We randomly assigned 6263 patients with heart failure and a left ventricular ejection fraction of more than 40% to receive dapagliflozin (at a dose of 10 mg once daily) or matching placebo, in addition to usual therapy. The primary outcome was a composite of worsening heart failure (which was defined as either an unplanned hospitalization for heart failure or an urgent visit for heart failure) or cardiovascular death, as assessed in a time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: Over a median of 2.3 years, the primary outcome occurred in 512 of 3131 patients (16.4%) in the dapagliflozin group and in 610 of 3132 patients (19.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 0.92; P$<$0.001). Worsening heart failure occurred in 368 patients (11.8%) in the dapagliflozin group and in 455 patients (14.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.91); cardiovascular death occurred in 231 patients (7.4%) and 261 patients (8.3%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.05). Total events and symptom burden were lower in the dapagliflozin group than in the placebo group. Results were similar among patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction of 60% or more and those with a left ventricular ejection fraction of less than 60%, and results were similar in prespecified subgroups, including patients with or without diabetes. The incidence of adverse events was similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Dapagliflozin reduced the combined risk of worsening heart failure or cardiovascular death among patients with heart failure and a mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. (Funded by AstraZeneca; DELIVER ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03619213.).
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45.
  • Solomon, Scott D., et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure with Preserved and Mildly Reduced Ejection Fraction : Rationale and Design of the DELIVER Trial.
  • 2021
  • In: European journal of heart failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 23:7, s. 1217-1225
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, originally developed as glucose-lowering agents, have been shown to reduce heart failure hospitalizations in patients with type 2 diabetes without established heart failure, and in patients with heart failure with and without diabetes. Their role in patients with heart failure with preserved and mildly reduced ejection fraction remains unknown. METHODS: Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the LIVEs of Patients With PReserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) is an international, multicentre, parallel group, event-driven, randomized, double-blind trial in patients with chronic heart failure and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) $>$40%, comparing the effect of dapagliflozin 10 mg once daily, vs. placebo, in addition to standard of care. Patients with or without diabetes, with signs and symptoms of heart failure, a LVEF $>$40%, elevation in natriuretic peptides and evidence of structural heart disease are eligible. The primary endpoint is time-to-first cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure event (heart failure hospitalization or urgent heart failure visit), and will be assessed in dual primary analyses - the full population and in those with LVEF $<$60%. The study is event-driven and will target 1117 primary events. A total of 6263 patients have been randomized. CONCLUSIONS: DELIVER will determine the efficacy and safety of the SGLT2 inhibitor dapagliflozin, added to conventional therapy, in patients with heart failure and preserved and mildly reduced ejection fraction.
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46.
  • Thomas, Kevin V, et al. (author)
  • Comparing illicit drug use in 19 European cities through sewage analysis
  • 2012
  • In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 432, s. 432-439
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The analysis of sewage for urinary biomarkers of illicit drugs is a promising and complementary approach for estimating the use of these substances in the general population. For the first time, this approach was simultaneously applied in 19 European cities, making it possible to directly compare illicit drug loads in Europe over a 1-week period. An inter-laboratory comparison study was performed to evaluate the analytical performance of the participating laboratories. Raw 24-hour composite sewage samples were collected from 19 European cities during a single week in March 2011 and analyzed for the urinary biomarkers of cocaine, amphetamine, ecstasy, methamphetamine and cannabis using in-house optimized and validated analytical methods. The load of each substance used in each city was back-calculated from the measured concentrations. The data show distinct temporal and spatial patterns in drug use across Europe. Cocaine use was higher in Western and Central Europe and lower in Northern and Eastern Europe. The extrapolated total daily use of cocaine in Europe during the study period was equivalent to 356kg/day. High per capita ecstasy loads were observed in Dutch cities, as well as in Antwerp and London. In general, cocaine and ecstasy loads were significantly elevated during the weekend compared to weekdays. Per-capita loads of methamphetamine were highest in Helsinki and Turku, Oslo and Budweis, while the per capita loads of cannabis were similar throughout Europe. This study shows that a standardized analysis for illicit drug urinary biomarkers in sewage can be applied to estimate and compare the use of these substances at local and international scales. This approach has the potential to deliver important information on drug markets (supply indicator).
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47.
  • Vaduganathan, Muthiah, et al. (author)
  • Estimated Long-Term Benefit of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure.
  • 2022
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097. ; 80:19, s. 1775-1784
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Recent guidelines support consideration of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in the long-term management of heart failure (HF) with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. Patients and clinicians may be interested in the expected lifetime benefits of sodium- glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in this population. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to estimate event-free survival gains from long-term use of dapagliflozin in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction overall and in clinically relevant subgroups. METHODS: In this prespecified analysis of DELIVER (Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure), we applied validated nonparametric age-based methods to extrapolate potential gains in survival free from the primary endpoint (cardiovascular death or worsening HF event) from long-term use of dapagliflozin. Eligible participants had symptomatic HF, left ventricular ejection fraction $>$40%, elevated natriuretic peptide levels, and structural heart disease. For every year between the ages of 55 and 85 years, we estimated event-free survival using age at randomization rather than time from randomization as the time horizon. Residual lifespan free from a primary endpoint was estimated based on area under the survival curve in each arm. RESULTS: Among 6,263 participants, mean survival free from the primary endpoint for a 65-year-old participant was 12.1 years (95% CI: 11.0-13.2 years) with dapagliflozin and 9.7 years (95% CI: 8.8-10.7 years) with placebo, representing a 2.3-year (95% CI: 0.9-3.8 years) event-free survival gain (P = 0.002). Treatment gains in survival free from the primary endpoint ranged from 2.0 years (95% CI: -0.6 to 4.6 years) in a 55-year-old to 1.2 years (95% CI: -0.1 to 2.4 years) in a 75-year-old patient. Mean event-free survival was greater with dapagliflozin than with placebo across all 14 subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with dapagliflozin is projected to extend event-free survival by up to 2.0 to 2.5 years among middle-aged and older individuals with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction. (DELIVER [Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure]; NCT03619213).
  •  
48.
  • Vaduganathan, Muthiah, et al. (author)
  • Time to Clinical Benefit of Dapagliflozin in Patients With Heart Failure With Mildly Reduced or Preserved Ejection Fraction : A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of the DELIVER Randomized Clinical Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: JAMA cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 7:12, s. 1259-1263
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Importance: Dapagliflozin was recently shown to reduce cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure (HF) events in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction in the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial. Objective: To evaluate the time course of benefits of dapagliflozin on clinically relevant outcomes in this population. Design, Setting, and Participants: The DELIVER trial was a global phase 3 clinical trial that randomized patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction to dapagliflozin or matching placebo. Inclusion criteria included symptomatic HF, left ventricular ejection fraction greater than 40%, elevated natriuretic peptide levels, and evidence of structural heart disease. In this prespecified secondary analysis of the DELIVER trial, to examine the timeline to onset of clinical benefit with dapagliflozin, hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were iteratively estimated for the primary composite end point and worsening HF events alone with truncated data at every day postrandomization. Time to first and sustained statistical significance of dapagliflozin for these end points were then examined. Participants were enrolled from August 2018 to December 2020, and for this secondary analysis, data were analyzed from April to September 2022. Interventions: Dapagliflozin, 10 mg, once daily or matching placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time to first occurrence of cardiovascular death or worsening HF (hospitalization for HF or urgent HF visit requiring intravenous HF therapies). Results: Overall, 6263 patients were randomized across 350 centers in 20 countries. Of 6263 included patients, 2747 (43.9%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 71.7 (9.6) years. During a median (IQR) of 2.3 (1.7-2.8) years’ follow- up, 1122 primary end point events occurred, with an incidence rate per 100 patient-years of 8.7 (95% CI, 8.2-9.2). Time to first nominal statistical significance for the primary end point was 13 days (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.20-0.99; P = .046), and significance was sustained from day 15 onwards. First and sustained statistical significance was reached for worsening HF events (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.21-0.96; P = .04) by day 16 after randomization. Significant benefits for the primary end point and worsening HF events were sustained at 30 days, 90 days, 6 months, 1 year, 2 years, and final follow-up (primary end point: HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.73-0.92; worsening HF events: HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.91). Conclusions and Relevance: In the DELIVER trial, dapagliflozin led to early and sustained reductions in clinical events in patients with HF with mildly reduced or preserved ejection fraction with statistically significant reductions observed within 2 weeks of treatment initiation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03619213.
  •  
49.
  • Vardeny, Orly, et al. (author)
  • Dapagliflozin in Heart Failure with Improved Ejection Fraction : A Prespecified Analysis of the DELIVER Trial.
  • 2022
  • In: Nature medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 28:12, s. 2504-2511
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • With modern treatments for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (EF), indicative of impaired cardiac systolic function, patients may exhibit an increase in EF. Limited data are available regarding the clinical management of this growing population, categorized as heart failure with improved EF (HFimpEF), which has a high event rate and has been excluded from virtually all prior heart failure outcomes trials. In a prespecified analysis of the DELIVER trial ( NCT03619213 ), of a total of 6,263 participants with symptomatic heart failure and a left ventricular EF $>$40%, 1,151 (18%) had HFimpEF, defined as patients whose EF improved from $<$/=40% to $>$40%. Participants were randomized to 10 mg dapagliflozin or placebo daily and the primary outcome of the trial was a composite of cardiovascular death or worsening heart failure (heart failure hospitalization or an urgent heart failure visit). Participants with HFimpEF had similar event rates to those with an EF consistently $>$40%. In participants with HFimpEF, dapagliflozin reduced the primary composite outcome (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.56-0.97), first worsening heart failure events (HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.61-1.14), cardiovascular death (HR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.41-0.96) and total worsening heart failure events (rate ratio = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.50-0.94) to a similar extent as for individuals with an EF consistently $>$40%. These data suggest that patients with HFimpEF who are symptomatic may benefit from the addition of a sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor to previously instituted guideline-directed medical therapy to further reduce morbidity and mortality.
  •  
50.
  • Westerhout, Cynthia M., et al. (author)
  • Predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes
  • 2006
  • In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 27:24, s. 2956-2961
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • AIMS: Stroke is an uncommon but serious complication after non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). We aimed to identify predictors of stroke within 30 days in patients who suffered NSTE-ACS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We pooled data from six trials (n=31 402) that randomized NSTE-ACS patients either to platelet glycoprotein (GP) IIb/IIIa receptor blockers or to placebo/control therapy. Potential predictors of stroke included treatment, demographic, and clinical characteristics. We identified predictors using univariable and multivariable logistic models, and their performance was evaluated with calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) and discrimination (c-statistic). We found 228 (0.7%) all-cause strokes: 155 (0.5%) non-haemorrhagic, 20 (0.06%) haemorrhagic, and 53 without computed tomography (CT) confirmation. Patients with any type of stroke had a 30-day mortality of 25%. Randomization to GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers was not significantly associated with all-cause stroke [OR (95% CI) 1.08 (0.83-1.41)]. Older age [OR per 10-year increase 1.5 (1.3-1.7)], prior stroke [2.1 (1.4-3.1)], and elevated heart rate [per 10-beat increase 1.1 (1.0-1.2)] were the strongest predictors of 30-day all-cause stroke. Similar predictors were found for non-haemorrhagic and haemorrhagic strokes. Smoking, previous myocardial infarction, diabetes, and hypertension were not independent predictors of all-cause stroke. The multivariable model to predict all-cause stroke was well calibrated, but its discrimination was only moderate [c-statistic 0.69 (0.65-0.72)]. CONCLUSION: Stroke is a rare complication occurring early after NSTE-ACS, but is associated with high mortality. We found no evidence that GP IIb/IIIa receptor blockers increase stroke risks. A few clinical characteristics predicted higher stroke risks. Thus, incident strokes in NSTE-ACS patients remain largely unexplained.
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