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1.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
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2.
  • Abbott, Benjamin W., et al. (författare)
  • We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
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3.
  • A'Campo, Willeke, et al. (författare)
  • Arctic Tundra Land Cover Classification on the Beaufort Coast Using the Kennaugh Element Framework on Dual-Polarimetric TerraSAR-X Imagery
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-4292. ; 13:23
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Arctic tundra landscapes are highly complex and are rapidly changing due to the warming climate. Datasets that document the spatial and temporal variability of the landscape are needed to monitor the rapid changes. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery is specifically suitable for monitoring the Arctic, as SAR, unlike optical remote sensing, can provide time series regardless of weather and illumination conditions. This study examines the potential of seasonal backscatter mechanisms in Arctic tundra environments for improving land cover classification purposes by using a time series of HH/HV TerraSAR-X (TSX) imagery. A Random Forest (RF) classification was applied on multi-temporal Sigma Nought intensity and multi-temporal Kennaugh matrix element data. The backscatter analysis revealed clear differences in the polarimetric response of water, soil, and vegetation, while backscatter signal variations within different vegetation classes were more nuanced. The RF models showed that land cover classes could be distinguished with 92.4% accuracy for the Kennaugh element data, compared to 57.7% accuracy for the Sigma Nought intensity data. Texture predictors, while improving the classification accuracy on the one hand, degraded the spatial resolution of the land cover product. The Kennaugh elements derived from TSX winter acquisitions were most important for the RF model, followed by the Kennaugh elements derived from summer and autumn acquisitions. The results of this study demonstrate that multi-temporal Kennaugh elements derived from dual-polarized X-band imagery are a powerful tool for Arctic tundra land cover mapping.
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4.
  • Alfredsson, Hanna, et al. (författare)
  • Amorphous silica pools in permafrost soils of the Central Canadian Arctic and the potential impact of climate change
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Biogeochemistry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-2563 .- 1573-515X. ; 124:1-3, s. 441-459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We investigated the distribution, storage and landscape partitioning of soil amorphous silica (ASi) in a central Canadian region dominated by tundra and peatlands to provide a first estimate of the amount of ASi stored in Arctic permafrost ecosystems. We hypothesize that, similar to soil organic matter, Arctic soils store large amounts of ASi which may be affected by projected climate changes and associated changes in permafrost regimes. Average soil ASi storage (top 1 m) ranged between 9600 and 83,500 kg SiO2 ha(-1) among different land-cover types. Lichen tundra contained the lowest amounts of ASi while no significant differences were found in ASi storage among other land-cover types. Clear differences were observed between ASi storage allocated into the top organic versus the mineral horizon of soils. Bog peatlands, fen peatlands and wet shrub tundra stored between 7090 and 45,400 kg SiO2 ha(-1) in the top organic horizon, while the corresponding storage in lichen tundra, moist shrub- and dry shrub tundra only amounted to 1500-1760 kg SiO2 ha(-1). Diatoms and phytoliths are important components of ASi storage in the top organic horizon of peatlands and shrub tundra systems, while it appears to be a negligible component of ASi storage in the mineral horizon of shrub tundra classes. ASi concentrations decrease with depth in the soil profile for fen peatlands and all shrub tundra classes, suggesting recycling of ASi, whereas bog peatlands appeared to act as sinks retaining stored ASi on millennial time scales. Our results provide a conceptual framework to assess the potential effects of climate change impacts on terrestrial Si cycling in the Arctic. We believe that ASi stored in peatlands are particularly sensitive to climate change, because a larger fraction of the ASi pool is stored in perennially frozen ground compared to shrub tundra systems. A likely outcome of climate warming and permafrost thaw could be mobilization of previously frozen ASi, altered soil storage of biogenically derived ASi and an increased Si flux to the Arctic Ocean.
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5.
  • Alfredsson, H., et al. (författare)
  • Estimated storage of amorphous silica in soils of the circum-Arctic tundra region
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:3, s. 479-500
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We investigated the vertical distribution, storage, landscape partitioning, and spatial variability of soil amorphous silica (ASi) at four different sites underlain by continuous permafrost and representative of mountainous and lowland tundra, in the circum-Arctic region. Based on a larger set of data, we present the first estimate of the ASi soil reservoir (0-1 m depth) in circum-Arctic tundra terrain. At all sites, the vertical distribution of ASi concentrations followed the pattern of either (1) declining concentrations with depth (most common) or (2) increasing/maximum concentrations with depth. Our results suggest that a set of processes, including biological control, solifluction and other slope processes, cryoturbation, and formation of inorganic precipitates influence vertical distributions of ASi in permafrost terrain, with the capacity to retain stored ASi on millennial timescales. At the four study sites, areal ASi storage (0-1 m) is generally higher in graminoid tundra compared to wetlands. Our circum-Arctic upscaling estimates, based on both vegetation and soil classification separately, suggest a storage amounting to 219 ± 28 and 274 ± 33 Tmol Si, respectively, of which at least 30% is stored in permafrost. This estimate would account for about 3% of the global soil ASi storage while occupying an equal portion of the global land area. This result does not support the hypothesis that the circum-Arctic tundra soil ASi reservoir contains relatively higher amounts of ASi than other biomes globally as demonstrated for carbon. Nevertheless, climate warming has the potential to significantly alter ASi storage and terrestrial Si cycling in the Arctic.
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6.
  • Bartsch, Annett, et al. (författare)
  • Can C-band synthetic aperture radar be used to estimate soil organic carbon storage in tundra?
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 13:19, s. 5453-5470
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR; ENVISAT Advanced SAR Global Monitoring mode) data. SOC values are directly determined from backscatter values instead of upscaling using land cover or soil classes. The multi-mode capability of SAR allows application across scales. It can be shown that measurements in C band under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. It is estimated that at least 29 Pg C is stored in the upper 30 cm of soils north of the tree line. This is approximately 25% less than stocks derived from the soil-map-based Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). The total stored carbon is underestimated since the established empirical relationship is not valid for peatlands or strongly cryoturbated soils. The approach does, however, provide the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic. Furthermore, it could be shown that values obtained from 1 km resolution SAR correspond to accounts based on a high spatial resolution (2 m) land cover map over a study area of about 7 x 7 km in NE Siberia. The approach can be also potentially transferred to medium-resolution C-band SAR data such as ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath with similar to 120m resolution but it is in general limited to regions without woody vegetation. Global Monitoring-mode-derived SOC increases with unfrozen period length. This indicates the importance of this parameter for modelling of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon storage.
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7.
  • Beer, C., et al. (författare)
  • Carbon dioxide release from retrogressive thaw slumps in Siberia
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - 1748-9326. ; 18:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Thawing of ice-rich permafrost soils in sloped terrain can lead to activation of retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) which make organic matter available for decomposition that has been frozen for centuries to millennia. Recent studies show that the area affected by RTSs increased in the last two decades across the pan-Arctic. Combining a model of soil carbon dynamics with remotely sensed spatial details of thaw slump area and a soil carbon database, we show that RTSs in Siberia turned a previous quasi-neutral ecosystem into a strong source of carbon dioxide of 367 ± 213 gC m-1 a-1. On a global scale, recent CO2 emissions from Siberian thaw slumps of 0.42 ± 0.22 Tg carbon per year are negligible so far. However, depending on the future evolution of permafrost thaw and hence thaw slump-affected area, such hillslope processes can transition permafrost landscapes to become a major source of additional CO2 release into the atmosphere.
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8.
  • Beer, Christian, et al. (författare)
  • Vertical pattern of organic matter decomposability in cryoturbated permafrost-affected soils
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 17:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Permafrost thaw will release additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere resulting in a positive feedback to climate change. However, the mineralization dynamics of organic matter (OM) stored in permafrost-affected soils remain unclear. We used physical soil fractionation, radiocarbon measurements, incubation experiments, and a dynamic decomposition model to identify distinct vertical pattern in OM decomposability. The observed differences reflect the type of OM input to the subsoil, either by cryoturbation or otherwise, e.g. by advective water-borne transport of dissolved OM. In non-cryoturbated subsoil horizons, most OM is stabilized at mineral surfaces or by occlusion in aggregates. In contrast, pockets of OM-rich cryoturbated soil contain sufficient free particulate OM for microbial decomposition. After thaw, OM turnover is as fast as in the upper active layer. Since cryoturbated soils store ca. 450 Pg carbon, identifying differences in decomposability according to such translocation processes has large implications for the future global carbon cycle and climate, and directs further process model development.
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9.
  • Capek, P. T., et al. (författare)
  • A plant-microbe interaction framework explaining nutrient effects on primary production
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 2:10, s. 1588-1596
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In most terrestrial ecosystems, plant growth is limited by nitrogen and phosphorus. Adding either nutrient to soil usually affects primary production, but their effects can be positive or negative. Here we provide a general stoichiometric framework for interpreting these contrasting effects. First, we identify nitrogen and phosphorus limitations on plants and soil microorganisms using their respective nitrogen to phosphorus critical ratios. Second, we use these ratios to show how soil microorganisms mediate the response of primary production to limiting and non-limiting nutrient addition along a wide gradient of soil nutrient availability. Using a meta-analysis of 51 factorial nitrogen-phosphorus fertilization experiments conducted across multiple ecosystems, we demonstrate that the response of primary production to nitrogen and phosphorus additions is accurately predicted by our stoichiometric framework. The only pattern that could not be predicted by our original framework suggests that nitrogen has not only a structural function in growing organisms, but also a key role in promoting plant and microbial nutrient acquisition. We conclude that this stoichiometric framework offers the most parsimonious way to interpret contrasting and, until now, unresolved responses of primary production to nutrient addition in terrestrial ecosystems.
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10.
  • Capek, P., et al. (författare)
  • The effect of warming on the vulnerability of subducted organic carbon in arctic soils
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Soil Biology & Biochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0038-0717 .- 1879-3428. ; 90, s. 19-29
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Arctic permafrost soils contain large stocks of organic carbon (OC). Extensive cryogenic processes in these soils cause subduction of a significant part of OC-rich topsoil down into mineral soil through the process of cryoturbation. Currently, one-fourth of total permafrost OC is stored in subducted organic horizons. Predicted climate change is believed to reduce the amount of OC in permafrost soils as rising temperatures will increase decomposition of OC by soil microorganisms. To estimate the sensitivity of OC decomposition to soil temperature and oxygen levels we performed a 4-month incubation experiment in which we manipulated temperature (4-20 degrees C) and oxygen level of topsoil organic, subducted organic and mineral soil horizons. Carbon loss (C-LOSS) was monitored and its potential biotic and abiotic drivers, including concentrations of available nutrients, microbial activity, biomass and stoichiometry, and extracellular oxidative and hydrolytic enzyme pools, were measured. We found that independently of the incubation temperature, C-LOSS from subducted organic and mineral soil horizons was one to two orders of magnitude lower than in the organic topsoil horizon, both under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. This corresponds to the microbial biomass being lower by one to two orders of magnitude. We argue that enzymatic degradation of autochthonous subducted OC does not provide sufficient amounts of carbon and nutrients to sustain greater microbial biomass. The resident microbial biomass relies on allochthonous fluxes of nutrients, enzymes and carbon from the OC-rich topsoil. This results in a "negative priming effect", which protects autochthonous subducted OC from decomposition at present. The vulnerability of subducted organic carbon in cryoturbated arctic soils under future climate conditions will largely depend on the amount of allochthonous carbon and nutrient fluxes from the topsoil. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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11.
  • Chadburn, S. E., et al. (författare)
  • An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7:5, s. 340-344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Permafrost, which covers 15 million km(2) of the land surface, is one of the components of the Earth system that is most sensitive to warming(1,2). Loss of permafrost would radically change high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, and could therefore provide very significant feedbacks on climate change(3-8). The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw(9,10). Here we show that in each of the models, their present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature, we estimate a sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming at stabilization of 4.0(-1.1)(+1.0) million km(2) degrees C-1 (1 sigma confidence), which is around 20% higher than previous studies(9). Our method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets(11): if the climate is stabilized at 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C would save approximately 2 million km(2) of permafrost.
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12.
  • Chadburn, Sarah E., et al. (författare)
  • Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes : using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 14:22, s. 5143-5169
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • It is important that climate models can accurately simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle in the Arctic due to the large and potentially labile carbon stocks found in permafrost-affected environments, which can lead to a positive climate feedback, along with the possibility of future carbon sinks from northward expansion of vegetation under climate warming. Here we evaluate the simulation of tundra carbon stocks and fluxes in three land surface schemes that each form part of major Earth system models (JSBACH, Germany; JULES, UK; ORCHIDEE, France). We use a site-level approach in which comprehensive, high-frequency datasets allow us to disentangle the importance of different processes. The models have improved physical permafrost processes and there is a reasonable correspondence between the simulated and measured physical variables, including soil temperature, soil moisture and snow. We show that if the models simulate the correct leaf area index (LAI), the standard C3 photosynthesis schemes produce the correct order of magnitude of carbon fluxes. Therefore, simulating the correct LAI is one of the first priorities. LAI depends quite strongly on climatic variables alone, as we see by the fact that the dynamic vegetation model can simulate most of the differences in LAI between sites, based almost entirely on climate inputs. However, we also identify an influence from nutrient limitation as the LAI becomes too large at some of the more nutrient-limited sites. We conclude that including moss as well as vascular plants is of primary importance to the carbon budget, as moss contributes a large fraction to the seasonal CO2 flux in nutrient-limited conditions. Moss photosynthetic activity can be strongly influenced by the moisture content of moss, and the carbon uptake can be significantly different from vascular plants with a similar LAI. The soil carbon stocks depend strongly on the rate of input of carbon from the vegetation to the soil, and our analysis suggests that an improved simulation of photosynthesis would also lead to an improved simulation of soil carbon stocks. However, the stocks are also influenced by soil carbon burial (e.g. through cryoturbation) and the rate of heterotrophic respiration, which depends on the soil physical state. More detailed below-ground measurements are needed to fully evaluate biological and physical soil processes. Furthermore, even if these processes are well modelled, the soil carbon profiles cannot resemble peat layers as peat accumulation processes are not represented in the models. Thus, we identify three priority areas for model development: (1) dynamic vegetation including (a) climate and (b) nutrient limitation effects; (2) adding moss as a plant functional type; and an (3) improved vertical profile of soil carbon including peat processes.
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13.
  • Chadburn, Sarah E., et al. (författare)
  • Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 34:11
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Methane emissions from natural wetlands tend to increase with temperature and therefore may lead to a positive feedback under future climate change. However, their temperature response includes confounding factors and appears to differ on different time scales. Observed methane emissions depend strongly on temperature on a seasonal basis, but if the annual mean emissions are compared between sites, there is only a small temperature effect. We hypothesize that microbial dynamics are a major driver of the seasonal cycle and that they can explain this apparent discrepancy. We introduce a relatively simple model of methanogenic growth and dormancy into a wetland methane scheme that is used in an Earth system model. We show that this addition is sufficient to reproduce the observed seasonal dynamics of methane emissions in fully saturated wetland sites, at the same time as reproducing the annual mean emissions. We find that a more complex scheme used in recent Earth system models does not add predictive power. The sites used span a range of climatic conditions, with the majority in high latitudes. The difference in apparent temperature sensitivity seasonally versus spatially cannot be recreated by the non-microbial schemes tested. We therefore conclude that microbial dynamics are a strong candidate to be driving the seasonal cycle of wetland methane emissions. We quantify longer-term temperature sensitivity using this scheme and show that it gives approximately a 12% increase in emissions per degree of warming globally. This is in addition to any hydrological changes, which could also impact future methane emissions.
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14.
  • Ciais, Philippe, et al. (författare)
  • Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2)
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:3, s. 1289-1316
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Regional land carbon budgets provide insights into the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields, or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions due to different definitions and component fluxes being reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definitions and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to a globe scale and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, using the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims to be an update to regional carbon budgets over the last 2 decades based on observations for 10 regions covering the globe with a better harmonization than the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversion results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes, and land use fluxes.
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15.
  • Ding, Jinzhi, et al. (författare)
  • Decadal soil carbon accumulation across Tibetan permafrost regions
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 10:6, s. 420-424
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Permafrost soils store large amounts of carbon. Warming can result in carbon release from thawing permafrost, but it can also lead to enhanced primary production, which can increase soil carbon stocks. The balance of these fluxes determines the nature of the permafrost feedback to warming. Here we assessed decadal changes in soil organic carbon stocks in the active layer-the uppermost 30 cm-of permafrost soils across Tibetan alpine regions, based on repeated soil carbon measurements in the early 2000s and 2010s at the same sites. We observed an overall accumulation of soil organic carbon irrespective of vegetation type, with a mean rate of 28.0 g Cm-2 yr(-1) across Tibetan permafrost regions. This soil organic carbon accrual occurred only in the subsurface soil, between depths of 10 and 30 cm, mainly induced by an increase of soil organic carbon concentrations. We conclude that the upper active layer of Tibetan alpine permafrost currently represents a substantial regional soil carbon sink in a warming climate, implying that carbon losses of deeper and older permafrost carbon might be offset by increases in upper-active-layer soil organic carbon stocks, which probably results from enhanced vegetation growth.
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16.
  • Faucherre, Samuel, et al. (författare)
  • Short and Long-Term Controls on Active Layer and Permafrost Carbon Turnover Across the Arctic
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 123:2, s. 372-390
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) in permafrost terrain and the production of greenhouse gases is a key factor for understanding climate change-carbon feedbacks. Previous studies have shown that SOM decomposition is mostly controlled by soil temperature, soil moisture, and carbon-nitrogen ratio (C:N). However, focus has generally been on site-specific processes and little is known about variations in the controls on SOM decomposition across Arctic sites. For assessing SOM decomposition, we retrieved 241 samples from 101 soil profiles across three contrasting Arctic regions and incubated them in the laboratory under aerobic conditions. We assessed soil carbon losses (Closs) five times during a 1 year incubation. The incubated material consisted of near-surface active layer (ALNS), subsurface active layer (ALSS), peat, and permafrost samples. Samples were analyzed for carbon, nitrogen, water content, δ13C, δ15N, and dry bulk density (DBD). While no significant differences were observed between total ALSS and permafrost Closs over 1 year incubation (2.3 ± 2.4% and 2.5 ± 1.5% Closs, respectively), ALNS samples showed higher Closs (7.9 ± 4.2%). DBD was the best explanatory parameter for active layer Closs across sites. Additionally, results of permafrost samples show that C:N ratio can be used to characterize initial Closs between sites. This data set on the influence of abiotic parameter on microbial SOM decomposition can improve model simulations of Arctic soil CO2 production by providing representative mean values of CO2 production rates and identifying standard parameters or proxies for upscaling potential CO2 production from site to regional scales.
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17.
  • Fischer, Benjamin M. C., et al. (författare)
  • Mojito, Anyone? An Exploration of Low-Tech Plant Water Extraction Methods for Isotopic Analysis Using Locally-Sourced Materials
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Frontiers in Earth Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-6463. ; 7
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The stable isotope composition of water (delta O-18 and delta H-2) is an increasingly utilized tool to distinguish between different pools of water along the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum (SPAC) and thus provides information on how plants use water. Clear bottlenecks for the ubiquitous application of isotopic analysis across the SPAC are the relatively high-energy and specialized materials required to extract water from plant materials. Could simple and cost-effective do-it-yourself MacGyver methods be sufficient for extracting plant water for isotopic analysis? This study develops a suite of novel techniques for plant water extraction and compares them to a standard research-grade water extraction method. Our results show that low-tech methods using locally-sourced materials can indeed extract plant water consistently and comparably to what is done with other state-of-the-art methods. Further, our findings show that other factors play a larger role than water extraction methods in achieving the desired accuracy and precision of stable isotope composition: (1) appropriate transport, (2) fast sample processing and (3) efficient workflows. These results are methodologically promising for the rapid expansion of isotopic investigations, especially for citizen science and/or school projects or in remote areas, where improved SPAC understanding could help manage water resources to fulfill agricultural and other competing water needs.
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18.
  • Fluet-Chouinard, Etienne, et al. (författare)
  • Extensive global wetland loss over the past three centuries
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 614:7947, s. 281-286
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Wetlands have long been drained for human use, thereby strongly affecting greenhouse gas fluxes, flood control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity1,2. Nevertheless, the global extent of natural wetland loss remains remarkably uncertain3. Here, we reconstruct the spatial distribution and timing of wetland loss through conversion to seven human land uses between 1700 and 2020, by combining national and subnational records of drainage and conversion with land-use maps and simulated wetland extents. We estimate that 3.4 million km2 (confidence interval 2.9–3.8) of inland wetlands have been lost since 1700, primarily for conversion to croplands. This net loss of 21% (confidence interval 16–23%) of global wetland area is lower than that suggested previously by extrapolations of data disproportionately from high-loss regions. Wetland loss has been concentrated in Europe, the United States and China, and rapidly expanded during the mid-twentieth century. Our reconstruction elucidates the timing and land-use drivers of global wetland losses, providing an improved historical baseline to guide assessment of wetland loss impact on Earth system processes, conservation planning to protect remaining wetlands and prioritization of sites for wetland restoration4.
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19.
  • Fuchs, Matthias, et al. (författare)
  • Low below-ground organic carbon storage in a subarctic Alpine permafrost environment
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Cryosphere. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1994-0416 .- 1994-0424. ; 9:2, s. 427-438
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study investigates the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in Tarfala Valley, northern Sweden. Field inventories, upscaled based on land cover, show that this alpine permafrost environment does not store large amounts of SOC, with an estimate mean of 0.9 +/- 0.2 kg C m(-2) for the upper meter of soil. This is 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower than what has been reported for lowland permafrost terrain. The SOC storage varies for different land cover classes and ranges from 0.05 kg C m(-2) for stone-dominated to 8.4 kg C m(-2) for grass-dominated areas. No signs of organic matter burial through cryoturbation or slope processes were found, and radiocarbon-dated SOC is generally of recent origin (< 2000 cal yr BP). An inventory of permafrost distribution in Tarfala Valley, based on the bottom temperature of snow measurements and a logistic regression model, showed that at an altitude where permafrost is probable the SOC storage is very low. In the high-altitude permafrost zones (above 1500 m), soils store only ca. 0.1 kg C m(-2). Under future climate warming, an upward shift of vegetation zones may lead to a net ecosystem C uptake from increased biomass and soil development. As a consequence, alpine permafrost environments could act as a net carbon sink in the future, as there is no loss of older or deeper SOC from thawing permafrost.
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20.
  • Gentsch, N., et al. (författare)
  • Storage and transformation of organic matter fractions in cryoturbated permafrost soils across the Siberian Arctic
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 12:14, s. 4525-4542
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In permafrost soils, the temperature regime and the resulting cryogenic processes are important determinants of the storage of organic carbon (OC) and its small-scale spatial variability. For cryoturbated soils, there is a lack of research assessing pedon-scale heterogeneity in OC stocks and the transformation of functionally different organic matter (OM) fractions, such as particulate and mineral-associated OM. Therefore, pedons of 28 Turbels were sampled in 5m wide soil trenches across the Siberian Arctic to calculate OC and total nitrogen (TN) stocks based on digital profile mapping. Density fractionation of soil samples was performed to distinguish between particulate OM (light fraction, LF, < 1.6 g cm(-3)), mineral associated OM (heavy fraction, HF, > 1.6 g cm(-3)), and a mobilizable dissolved pool (mobilizable fraction, MoF). Across all investigated soil profiles, the total OC storage was 20.2 +/- 8.0 kgm(-2) (mean +/- SD) to 100 cm soil depth. Fifty-four percent of this OC was located in the horizons of the active layer (annual summer thawing layer), showing evidence of cryoturbation, and another 35% was present in the upper permafrost. The HF-OC dominated the overall OC stocks (55 %), followed by LF-OC (19% in mineral and 13% in organic horizons). During fractionation, approximately 13% of the OC was released as MoF, which likely represents a readily bioavailable OM pool. Cryogenic activity in combination with cold and wet conditions was the principle mechanism through which large OC stocks were sequestered in the subsoil (16.4 +/- 8.1 kgm(-2); all mineral B, C, and permafrost horizons). Approximately 22% of the subsoil OC stock can be attributed to LF material subducted by cryoturbation, whereas migration of soluble OM along freezing gradients appeared to be the principle source of the dominant HF (63 %) in the subsoil. Despite the unfavourable abiotic conditions, low C/N ratios and high delta C-13 values indicated substantial microbial OM transformation in the subsoil, but this was not reflected in altered LF and HF pool sizes. Partial least-squares regression analyses suggest that OC accumulates in the HF fraction due to co-precipitation with multivalent cations (Al, Fe) and association with poorly crystalline iron oxides and clay minerals. Our data show that, across all permafrost pedons, the mineral-associated OM represents the dominant OM fraction, suggesting that the HF-OC is the OM pool in permafrost soils on which changing soil conditions will have the largest impact.
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21.
  • Guasconi, Daniela, 1992-, et al. (författare)
  • Climate-dependent responses of root and shoot biomass to drought duration and intensity in grasslands–a meta-analysis
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 903
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding the effects of altered precipitation regimes on root biomass in grasslands is crucial for predicting grassland responses to climate change. Nonetheless, studies investigating the effects of drought on belowground vegetation have produced mixed results. In particular, root biomass under reduced precipitation may increase, decrease or show a delayed response compared to shoot biomass, highlighting a knowledge gap in the relationship between belowground net primary production and drought. To address this gap, we conducted a meta-analysis of nearly 100 field observations of grassland root and shoot biomass changes under experimental rainfall reduction to disentangle the main drivers behind grassland responses to drought. Using a response-ratio approach we tested the hypothesis that water scarcity would induce a decrease in total biomass, but an increase in belowground biomass allocation with increased drought length and intensity, and that climate (as defined by the aridity index of the study location) would be an additional predictor. As expected, meteorological drought decreased root and shoot biomass, but aboveground and belowground biomass exhibited contrasting responses to drought duration and intensity, and their interaction with climate. In particular, drought duration had negative effects on root biomass only in wet climates while more intense drought had negative effects on root biomass only in dry climates. Shoot biomass responded negatively to drought duration regardless of climate. These results show that long-term climate is an important modulator of belowground vegetation responses to drought, which might be a consequence of different drought tolerance and adaptation strategies. This variability in vegetation responses to drought suggests that physiological plasticity and community composition shifts may mediate how climate affects carbon allocation in grasslands, and thus ultimately carbon storage in soil.
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22.
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23.
  • Guasconi, Daniela, 1992-, et al. (författare)
  • Spatial and temporal variability in soil and vegetation carbon dynamics under experimental drought and soil amendments
  • 2023
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Soils are the largest carbon (C) pool on the planet, and grassland soils have a particularly large C sequestration potential. Appropriate land management strategies, such as organic matter additions, can improve soil health, increase soil C stocks, and increase grassland resilience to drought by improving soil moisture retention. However, soil C dynamics are deeply linked to vegetation response to changes in both management and climate, which may also be manifested differently in roots and shoots. This study presents findings from a three-year experiment that assessed the impact of a compost amendment and of reduced precipitation on soil and vegetation C pools. Compost addition increased aboveground biomass and soil C content (%C), but because bulk density decreased, there was no significant effect on soil C stocks. Drought decreased aboveground biomass, but did not significantly affect root biomass. Overall, the soil amendment shifted C allocation to aboveground plant organs, and drought to belowground organs. We also observed significant spatial and temporal variability in vegetation biomass and soil C over the study period. These results highlight the need to consider multiple biotic and abiotic factors driving ecosystem C dynamics across spatial scales when upscaling results from field trials.
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24.
  • Guasconi, Daniela, 1992- (författare)
  • The hidden half of the meadow : Interactions between drought, soil carbon, roots and soil microbial communities
  • 2024
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Soil is a hidden ecosystem which harbours plant roots and countless microorganisms, vital for sustaining life aboveground. These belowground communities provide essential ecosystem services like soil stabilisation and organic matter decomposition. Soil is also one of the largest terrestrial carbon repositories, and land management strategies aimed at increasing organic matter inputs from plants, such as compost additions, can promote further soil carbon accumulation. Because organic carbon is important for soil water retention, this management may also help to increase resilience against more frequent and intense droughts. Although roots and microbial communities are largely acknowledged to play a key role in regulating the carbon cycle, there are still many open questions regarding the link between above- and belowground processes and ecosystem functions. Observing climate- and management-driven changes in the soil habitat is fundamental for understanding how ecosystems respond to environmental change.The aim of this thesis is to explore the relationship between soil properties, plant communities, and soil microbial communities in response to environmental changes. The research builds on a meta-analysis of drought effects on grasslands, and a multifactorial field experiment which combined three years of precipitation reduction and a compost treatment in two Swedish grasslands. We analysed the response of roots and soil microbial communities to drought and compost amendments, and identified environmental factors behind their large spatial variability. Finally, we tested the effects of compost additions on soil carbon storage and its interactions with drought.The results of the meta-analysis indicate that, on a global scale, grassland roots and shoots have diverging responses to drought duration and intensity, with long-term climate mediating that difference. At the local scale assessed in the field experiment, we observed that the spatial patterns of soil microbial communities were driven by soil properties and vegetation. Growing season drought affected roots only at trait level, but did not significantly affect microbial communities. Positive effects of compost on aboveground plant productivity and fungal growth were detectable after three years. Compost amendments also increased the percentage of total soil carbon, but no net increase in soil carbon stocks was detected. Spatial variability in roots and microbial communities was larger than the treatment effects, and was important in shaping microbial community composition and determining grassland responses to drought.Taken together, these findings suggest that roots and microbial communities are likely to be tolerant to drought a within the timescale of this experiment, but we did not observe an increase soil carbon sequestration or drought resilience when adding compost. This thesis highlights the importance of considering soil processes as complementary to aboveground observations when studying carbon dynamics, predicting ecosystem responses to environmental change, and developing sustainable land management practices.
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25.
  • Guasconi, Daniela, 1992-, et al. (författare)
  • Vegetation, topography, and soil depth drive microbial community structure in two Swedish grasslands
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: FEMS Microbiology Ecology. - 0168-6496 .- 1574-6941. ; 99:8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soil microbial diversity and community composition are shaped by various factors linked to land management, topographic position,and vegetation. To study the effects of these drivers, we characterized fungal and bacterial communities from bulk soil at four soildepths ranging from the surface to below the rooting zone of two Swedish grasslands with differing land-use histories, each includingboth an upper and a lower catenary position. We hypothesized that differences in plant species richness and plant functional groupcomposition between the four study sites would drive the variation in soil microbial community composition and correlate withmicrobial diversity, and that microbial biomass and diversity would decrease with soil depth following a decline in resource availability.While vegetation was identified as the main driver of microbial community composition, the explained variation was significantlyhigher for bacteria than for fungi, and the communities differed more between grasslands than between catenary positions. Microbialbiomass derived from DNA abundance decreased with depth, but diversity remained relatively stable, indicating diverse microbialcommunities even below the rooting zone. Finally, plant-microbial diversity correlations were significant only for specific plant andfungal functional groups, emphasizing the importance of functional interactions over general species richness
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26.
  • Hambäck, Peter A., et al. (författare)
  • Tradeoffs and synergies in wetland multifunctionality : A scaling issue
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - Amsterdam : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 862
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Wetland area in agricultural landscapes has been heavily reduced to gain land for crop production, but in recent years there is increased societal recognition of the negative consequences from wetland loss on nutrient retention, biodiversity and a range of other benefits to humans. The current trend is therefore to re-establish wetlands, often with an aim to achieve the simultaneous delivery of multiple ecosystem services, i.e., multifunctionality. Here we review the literature on key objectives used to motivate wetland re-establishment in temperate agricultural landscapes (provision of flow regulation, nutrient retention, climate mitigation, biodiversity conservation and cultural ecosystem services), and their relationships to environmental properties, in order to identify potential for tradeoffs and synergies concerning the development of multifunctional wetlands. Through this process, we find that there is a need for a change in scale from a focus on single wetlands to wetlandscapes (multiple neighboring wetlands including their catchments and surrounding landscape features) if multiple societal and environmental goals are to be achieved. Finally, we discuss the key factors to be considered when planning for re-establishment of wetlands that can support achievement of a wide range of objectives at the landscape scale.
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27.
  • Harden, Jennifer W., et al. (författare)
  • Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 39, s. L15704-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Deep soil profiles containing permafrost (Gelisols) were characterized for organic carbon (C) and total nitrogen (N) stocks to 3 m depths. Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) we calculate cumulative distributions of active layer thickness (ALT) under current and future climates. The difference in cumulative ALT distributions over time was multiplied by C and N contents of soil horizons in Gelisol suborders to calculate newly thawed C and N. Thawing ranged from 147 PgC with 10 PgN by 2050 (representative concentration pathway RCP scenario 4.5) to 436 PgC with 29 PgN by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Organic horizons that thaw are vulnerable to combustion, and all horizon types are vulnerable to shifts in hydrology and decomposition. The rates and extent of such losses are unknown and can be further constrained by linking field and modelling approaches. These changes have the potential for strong additional loading to our atmosphere, water resources, and ecosystems. Citation: Harden, J. W., et al. (2012), Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15704, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051958.
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28.
  • Harden, Jennifer W., et al. (författare)
  • Networking our science to characterize the state, vulnerabilities, and management opportunities of soil organic matter
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 24:2, s. e705-e718
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soil organic matter (SOM) supports the Earth's ability to sustain terrestrial ecosystems, provide food and fiber, and retains the largest pool of actively cycling carbon. Over 75% of the soil organic carbon (SOC) in the top meter of soil is directly affected by human land use. Large land areas have lost SOC as a result of land use practices, yet there are compensatory opportunities to enhance productivity and SOC storage in degraded lands through improved management practices. Large areas with and without intentional management are also being subjected to rapid changes in climate, making many SOC stocks vulnerable to losses by decomposition or disturbance. In order to quantify potential SOC losses or sequestration at field, regional, and global scales, measurements for detecting changes in SOC are needed. Such measurements and soil-management best practices should be based on well established and emerging scientific understanding of processes of C stabilization and destabilization over various timescales, soil types, and spatial scales. As newly engaged members of the International Soil Carbon Network, we have identified gaps in data, modeling, and communication that underscore the need for an open, shared network to frame and guide the study of SOM and SOC and their management for sustained production and climate regulation.
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29.
  • Hartley, Iain P., et al. (författare)
  • Temperature effects on carbon storage are controlled by soil stabilisation capacities
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Physical and chemical stabilisation mechanisms are now known to play a critical role in controlling carbon (C) storage in mineral soils, leading to suggestions that climate warming-induced C losses may be lower than previously predicted. By analysing > 9,000 soil profiles, here we show that, overall, C storage declines strongly with mean annual temperature. However, the reduction in C storage with temperature was more than three times greater in coarse-textured soils, with limited capacities for stabilising organic matter, than in fine-textured soils with greater stabilisation capacities. This pattern was observed independently in cool and warm regions, and after accounting for potentially confounding factors (plant productivity, precipitation, aridity, cation exchange capacity, and pH). The results could not, however, be represented by an established Earth system model (ESM). We conclude that warming will promote substantial soil C losses, but ESMs may not be predicting these losses accurately or which stocks are most vulnerable.
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30.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980-, et al. (författare)
  • Characterization of Soil Organic Matter in Permafrost Terrain – landscape scale analyses from the European Russian Arctic
  • 2010
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    •  1 INTRODUCTIONSoils of high latitude terrestrial ecosystems are considered key components in the global carbon cycle and hold large stores of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC). The absolute and relative sizes of labile and recalcitrant SOC pools in periglacial terrain are mostly unknown (Kuhry et al. in prep.). Such data has important policy relevance because of its impact on climate change.We sampled soils representative of all major land cover and soil types in discontinuous permafrost terrain, European Russian Arctic. We analyzed the bulk soil characteristics including the soil humic fraction to assess the recalcitrance in organic matter quality in down-depth soil profiles.2 METHODSA comprehensive stratified random soil sampling program was carried out in the Seida area during late summer 2008. From these, we selected nine sites considered representative for the landscape. Active layer and permafrost free upland soils were sampled from dug soil pits with fixed volume corers. Peat plateaus were sampled near thermally eroding edges. Permafrost soils were cored using steel pipes hammered into the frozen peat. Permafrost free fens were sampled using fixed volume Russian corers.Radiocarbon dating was used to determine the SOC ages. The soils were analyzed for dry bulk density, elemental content, and stable isotope composition of organic C and N (δ13C, and δ15N). Further, humic acids were extracted, and the degree of humification of SOM assessed based on A600/C and ∆ log K (Ikeya and Watanabe, 2003).3 RESULTSFigure 1 shows soil organic matter (SOM) characteristics in a peat sequence from one of the nine described sites, a raised bog peat plateau.The peatland first developed as a permafrost-free fen during the Holocene Hypsithermal. Permafrost only aggraded in the late Holocene. Anoxic conditions in the fen and permafrost in peat plateau stages reduced decomposition rates and the degree of humification (A600/C) is relatively constant throughout the peat deposit.Botanical origin is a key factor in determining SOM quality, which is clearly reflected in the elemental ratio (C/N) and isotopic composition of C and N. There are sharp shifts in humification, C/N and isotopic composition at the peat/clay interface.REFERENCESIkeya, K. and Watanabe, A., 2003, Direct expression of an index for the degree of humification of humic acids using organic carbon concentration. Soil Science and Plant Nutrition, 49: 47-53.Kuhry, P., Dorrepaal, E., Hugelius G., Schuur, E.A.G. and Tarnocai C., Potential remobilization of permafrost carbon under future global warming. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Submitted.
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31.
  •  
32.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 11:23, s. 6573-6593
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but SOC stock estimates were poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of permafrost SOC stocks, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0-3m depth range in soils as well as for sediments deeper than 3m in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. Revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared to previous studies. Despite this there is evidence of significant remaining regional data gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for deposits below 3mdepth in deltas and the Yedoma region. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are substantial differences in other components, including the fraction of perennially frozen SOC. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 +/- 12 and 472 +/- 27 Pg for the 0-0.3 and 0-1 m soil depths, respectively (+/- 95% confidence intervals). Storage of SOC in 0-3m of soils is estimated to 1035 +/- 150 Pg. Of this, 34 +/- 16 PgC is stored in poorly developed soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalized calculations, storage of SOC below 3m of surface soils in deltaic alluvium of major Arctic rivers is estimated as 91 +/- 52 Pg. In the Yedoma region, estimated SOC stocks below 3mdepth are 181 +/- 54 Pg, of which 74 +/- 20 Pg is stored in intact Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice-and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits. Total estimated SOC storage for the permafrost region is similar to 1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of similar to 1100 to 1500 Pg. Of this, similar to 500 Pg is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed in the active layer or in deeper taliks, while similar to 800 Pg is perennially frozen. This represents a substantial similar to 300 Pg lowering of the estimated perennially frozen SOC stock compared to previous estimates.
  •  
33.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980-, et al. (författare)
  • Estimating soil organic carbon storage in periglacial terrain at very high resolution; a case study from the European Russian Arctic
  • 2010
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    •   1    Introduction   While recent research advances have significantly increased our understanding of SOC storage in the periglacial landscape, there are still many uncertainties. Local scale studies have shown that the landscape distribution of SOC is highly heterogeneous (e.g. Hugelius and Kuhry, 2009). Some landscape components, such as peat deposits or cryoturbated soil horizons, can dominate local SOC storage.  However, there are no clear trends in landscape distribution and regional differences emerge (Kuhry et al., in prep.). We have conducted a very high resolution study of SOC storage in four study sites (Seida and Rogovaya 1-3) in discontinuous permafrost terrain, European Russian Arctic. Point pedon data is upscaled to areal coverage using two different upscaling tools, land cover classifications and soil maps. 2      Methods 2.1     Soil sampling and upscaling Soil sampling was performed (i) along landscape transects and (ii) according to a weighted, stratified random sampling program. Sampling was done in 10 cm increments to 1 m depth or to full depth of peat deposits in a total of 94 sites. Point pedon data is upscaled to areal coverage using two different upscaling tools: 1. Thematic land cover classifications based on multiresolution segmentation of high-resolution Quickbird imagery (2.44 m raster resolution, 17 separate land cover classes, software Definiens Professional 5.0) and: 2. High resolution thematic soil maps following World Reference Base for Soil Resources terminology (20 distinct soil types, median polygon size 1960 m2). Mean SOC storage for each land cover or soil type is multiplied by the areal coverage within the study areas to calculate total storage and landscape partitioning of SOC. Figure 1 illustrates the spatial resolution of the two upscaling tools. It also shows 4 pixels of Landsat TM resolution, representing the highest resolution of previous land cover based SOC storage studies in permafrost terrain. 3      results   Preliminary calculations show that the estimates in the four different areas are between 38-58 kg C m-2 for land cover upscaling and between 37-49 kg C m-2 for soil map upscaling. Both upscaling methods yield higher estimates than what has previously been reported for this area (Hugelius and Kuhry, 2009). A majority of SOC is stored in Cryic Histosols or Folic/Histic Cryosols. Contiguous permafrost peat plateaus are present in all study areas, covering ~20-30 % of the landscape. The mean depth of peat deposits in the four plateaus is between 150-250 cm, but it is highly variable (recorded range 30-420 cm). There is no evidence of any significant deep burial of SOC through cryoturbation processes. References Hugelius G. and Kuhry P. 2009, Landscape partitioning and environmental gradient analyses of soil organic carbon in a permafrost environment. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 23, GB3006, doi:10.1029/2008GB003419. Kuhry, P., Dorrepaal, E., Hugelius G., Schuur, E.A.G. and Tarnocai C., Potential remobilization of permafrost carbon under future global warming. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, Submitted.
  •  
34.
  •  
35.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • High-resolution mapping of ecosystem carbon storage and potential effects of permafrost thaw in periglacial terrain, European Russian Arctic
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 116, s. G03024-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study describes detailed partitioning of phytomass carbon (C) and soil organic carbon (SOC) for four study areas in discontinuous permafrost terrain, Northeast European Russia. The mean aboveground phytomass C storage is 0.7 kg C m(-2). Estimated landscape SOC storage in the four areas varies between 34.5 and 47.0 kg C m(-2) with LCC (land cover classification) upscaling and 32.5-49.0 kg C m(-2) with soil map upscaling. A nested upscaling approach using a Landsat thematic mapper land cover classification for the surrounding region provides estimates within 5 +/- 5% of the local high-resolution estimates. Permafrost peat plateaus hold the majority of total and frozen SOC, especially in the more southern study areas. Burying of SOC through cryoturbation of O- or A-horizons contributes between 1% and 16% (mean 5%) of total landscape SOC. The effect of active layer deepening and thermokarst expansion on SOC remobilization is modeled for one of the four areas. The active layer thickness dynamics from 1980 to 2099 is modeled using a transient spatially distributed permafrost model and lateral expansion of peat plateau thermokarst lakes is simulated using geographic information system analyses. Active layer deepening is expected to increase the proportion of SOC affected by seasonal thawing from 29% to 58%. A lateral expansion of 30 m would increase the amount of SOC stored in thermokarst lakes/fens from 2% to 22% of all SOC. By the end of this century, active layer deepening will likely affect more SOC than thermokarst expansion, but the SOC stores vulnerable to thermokarst are less decomposed.
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36.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Ideas and perspectives : Holocene thermokarst sediments of the Yedoma permafrost region do not increase the northern peatland carbon pool
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 13:7, s. 2003-2010
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Permafrost deposits in the Beringian Yedoma region store large amounts of organic carbon (OC). Walter Anthony et al. (2014) describe a previously unrecognized pool of 159 Pg OC accumulated in Holocene thermokarst sediments deposited in Yedoma region alases (thermokarst depressions). They claim that these alas sediments increase the previously recognized circumpolar permafrost peat OC pool by 50 %. It is stated that previous integrated studies of the permafrost OC pool have failed to account for these deposits because the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD) is biased towards non-alas field sites and that the soil maps used in the NCSCD underestimate coverage of organic permafrost soils. Here we evaluate these statements against a brief literature review, existing data sets on Yedoma region soil OC storage and independent field-based and geospatial data sets of peat soil distribution in the Siberian Yedoma region. Our findings are summarized in three main points. Firstly, the sediments described by Walter Anthony et al. (2014) are primarily mineral lake sediments and do not match widely used international scientific definitions of peat or organic soils. They can therefore not be considered an addition to the circumpolar peat carbon pool. We also emphasize that a clear distinction between mineral and organic soil types is important since they show very different vulnerability trajectories under climate change. Secondly, independent field data and geospatial analyses show that the Siberian Yedoma region is dominated by mineral soils, not peatlands. Thus, there is no evidence to suggest any systematic bias in the NCSCD field data or maps. Thirdly, there is spatial overlap between these Holocene thermokarst sediments and previous estimates of permafrost soil and sediment OC stocks. These carbon stocks were already accounted for by previous studies and they do not significantly increase the known circumpolar OC pool. We suggest that these inaccurate statements made in Walter Anthony et al. (2014) mainly resulted from misunderstandings caused by conflicting definitions and terminologies across different geoscientific disciplines. A careful cross-disciplinary review of terminologies would help future studies to appropriately harmonize definitions between different fields.
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37.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980-, et al. (författare)
  • Landscape partitioning and environmental gradient analyses of soil organic carbon in a permafrost environment
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 23:GB3006
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • This study investigates landscape allocation and environmental gradients in soil organic carbon (C) storage in northeastern European Russia. The lowlands of the investigated Usa River Basin range from taiga with isolated permafrost to tundra vegetation on continuous permafrost. We compile and analyze databases on soil properties, permafrost, vegetation, and modeled climate. Mean soil C storage is estimated at 38.3 kg C m−2, with similar amounts in taiga and tundra regions. Permafrost soils hold 42% of the total soil C in the area. Peatlands dominate soil C storage with 72% of the total pool and 98% of permafrost C. Multivariate gradient analyses show that local vegetation and permafrost are strong predictors of soil chemical properties, overshadowing the effect of climate variables. This study highlights the importance of peatlands, particularly bogs, in bulk soil C storage. Soil organic matter stored in permafrost has higher C:N ratios than unfrozen material. Permafrost bogs constitute the main vulnerable C pool in the region. Remobilization of this frozen C can occur through gradual but widespread deepening of the active layer with subsequent talik formation or through more rapid but localized thermokarst erosion.
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38.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 117:34, s. 20438-20446
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y−1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.
  •  
39.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Mapping the degree of decomposition and thaw remobilization potential of soil organic matter in discontinuous permafrost terrain
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 117:G2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • [1] Soil organic matter (SOM) stored in permafrost terrain is a key component in the global carbon cycle, but its composition and lability are largely unknown. We characterize and assess the degree of decomposition of SOM at nine sites representing major land-cover and soil types (including peat deposits) in an area of discontinuous permafrost in the European Russian Arctic. We analyze the elemental and stable isotopic composition of bulk SOM, and the degree of humification and elemental composition of humic acids (HA). The degree of decomposition is low in the O-horizons of mineral soils and peat deposits. In the permafrost free non-peatland soils there is enrichment of13C and 15N, and decrease in bulk C/N ratios indicating more decomposed material with depth. Spectral characterization of HA indicates low humification in O-horizons and peat deposits, but increase in humification in the deeper soil horizons of non-peatland soils, and in mineral horizons underlying peat deposits. GIS based maps indicate that less decomposed OM characteristic of the O-horizon and permafrost peat deposits constitute the bulk of landscape SOM (>70% of landscape soil C). We conclude, however, that permafrost has not been the key environmental factor controlling the current degree of decomposition of SOM in this landscape due to relatively recent permafrost aggradation. In this century, active layer deepening will mainly affect SOM with a relatively high degree of decomposition in deeper mineral soil horizons. Additionally, thawing permafrost in peat plateaus may cause rapid remobilization of less decomposed SOM through thermokarst expansion.
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40.
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41.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980- (författare)
  • Quantity and quality of soil organic matter in permafrost terrain
  • 2011
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • High latitude terrestrial ecosystems are considered key components in the global carbon (C) cycle and hold large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (SOC). Much of this is stored as soil organic matter (SOM) in permafrost soils and peat deposits and is vulnerable to remobilization under future global warming. While the large size and potential vulnerability of arctic SOM reservoirs is recognized, detailed knowledge on its landscape partitioning and quality is poor. This thesis describes total storage, landscape partitioning and lability of SOM stored in permafrost areas of Canada and Russia. Detailed studies of SOC partitioning highlight the importance of especially permafrost peatlands, but also of O-horizons in moist tundra soils and cryoturbated soil horizons. A general characterization of SOM in an area of discontinuous permafrost shows that >70% of the SOC in the landscape is stored in SOM with a low degree of decomposition. Projections of permafrost thaw predict that the amount of SOC stored in the active layer of permafrost soils in this area could double by the end of this century. A lateral expansion of current thermokarst lakes by 30 m would expose comparable amounts of SOC to degradation. The results from this thesis have demonstrated the value of high-resolution studies of SOC storage. It is found that peat plateaus, common in the sporadic and discontinuous permafrost zones, store large quantities of labile SOM and may be highly susceptible to permafrost degradation, especially thermokarst, under future climate warming. Large quantities of labile SOM is also stored in cryoturbated soil horizons which may be affected by active layer warming and deepening. The current upscaling methodology is statistically evaluated and recommendations are given for the design of future studies. To accurately predict responses of periglacial C pools to a warming climate detailed studies of SOC storage and partitioning in different periglacial landscapes are needed.
  •  
42.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980- (författare)
  • Soil organic carbon in permafrost terrain : Total storage, landscape distribution and environmental controls
  • 2009
  • Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • High latitude terrestrial ecosystems are considered key components in the global carbon (C) cycle and hold large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (SOC). To a large degree, this SOC is stored in permafrost soils and peatlands and is vulnerable to remobilization under future global warming and permafrost thawing. Recent studies estimate that soils in permafrost regions store SOC equivalent to ~ 1.5 times the global atmospheric C pool. Ecosystems and soils interact with the atmospheric C pool; photosynthesis sequesters CO2 into SOC whereas microbial decomposition releases C based trace gases (mainly CO2 and CH4). Because of the radiative greenhouse properties of these gases, soil processes also feedback on the global climate system. Recent studies report increases in permafrost temperatures and under future climate change scenarios permafrost environments stand to undergo further changes. As permafrost thaws and surface hydrology changes, there is concern that periglacial tundra and peatland ecosystems will switch from being sinks for atmospheric C into sources, creating a potential for positive feedbacks on global warming. The magnitude of change in C fluxes resulting from climate warming and permafrost thawing depends on the remobilization processes affecting SOC stores, the size of SOC stores that become available for remobilization and the lability of the SOM compounds in these stores. While the large size and potential vulnerability of arctic SOC reservoirs is recognized, detailed knowledge on the landscape partitioning and quality of this SOC is poor. Paper I of this thesis assesses landscape allocation and environmental gradients in SOC storage in the Usa River Basin lowlands of northeastern European Russia. The Russian study area ranges from taiga region with isolated permafrost patches to tundra region with nearly continuous permafrost. Paper II of this thesis investigates total storage, landscape partitioning and quality of soil organic carbon (SOC) in the tundra and continuous permafrost terrain of the Tulemalu Lake area in the Central Canadian Arctic. Databases on soil properties, permafrost, vegetation and modeled climate are compiled and analyzed. Mean SOC storage in the two study regions is 38.3 kg C m-2 for the Usa River Basin and 33.8 kg C m-2 for Tulemalu Lake (for 1m depth in mineral soils and total depth of peat deposits). Both estimates are higher than previous estimates for the same study areas. Multivariate gradient analyses from the Usa Basin show that local vegetation and permafrost are strong predictors of soil chemical properties, overshadowing the effect of climate variables. The results highlight the importance of peatlands, particularly bogs, in bulk SOC storage in all types of permafrost terrain. In the Tulemalu Lake area significant amounts of SOC is stored in cryoturbated soil horizons with C/N ratios indicating a relatively low degree of decomposition. As this pool of cryoturbated SOC is mainly stored in the active layer, no dramatic increases in remobilization are expected following a deepening of the active layer. However, recent studies have demonstrated the importance of SOC storage in deep (>1m) cryoturbated horizons. Perennially frozen peat deposits in permafrost bogs constitute the main vulnerable SOC pool in the investigated regions. Remobilization of this frozen C can occur through gradual but widespread deepening of the active layer with subsequent talik formation, or through more rapid but localized thermokarst erosion.
  •  
43.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, et al. (författare)
  • Soil Organic Carbon Pools in a Periglacial Landscape; a Case Study from the Central Canadian Arctic
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. - : Wiley. - 1045-6740 .- 1099-1530. ; 21:1, s. 16-29
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We investigated total storage and landscape partitioning of soil organic carbon (SOC) in continuous permafrost terrain, central Canadian Arctic. The study is based on soil chemical analyses of pedons sampled to 1-m depth at 35 individual sites along three transects. Radiocarbon dating of cryoturbated soil pockets, basal peat and fossil wood shows that cryoturbation processes have been occurring since the Middle Holocene and that peat deposits started to accumulate in a forest-tundra environment where spruce was present (∼6000 cal yrs BP). Detailed partitioning of SOC into surface organic horizons, cryoturbated soil pockets and non-cryoturbated mineral soil horizons is calculated (with storage in active layer and permafrost calculated separately) and explored using principal component analysis. The detailed partitioning and mean storage of SOC in the landscape are estimated from transect vegetation inventories and a land cover classification based on a Landsat satellite image. Mean SOC storage in the 0–100-cm depth interval is 33.8 kg C m−2, of which 11.8 kg C m−2 is in permafrost. Fifty-six per cent of the total SOC mass is stored in peatlands (mainly bogs), but cryoturbated soil pockets in Turbic Cryosols also contribute significantly (17%). Elemental C/N ratios indicate that this cryoturbated soil organic matter (SOM) decomposes more slowly than SOM in surface O-horizons.
  •  
44.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf (författare)
  • Spatial upscaling using thematic maps : an analysis of uncertainties in permafrost soil carbon estimates
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 26, s. GB2026-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Studies of periglacial regions confirm their importance in the global carbon (C) cycle, but estimates of ecosystem C storage or green-house gas fluxes from these remote areas are generally poorly constrained and quantitative estimates of upscaling uncertainties are lacking. In this study, a regional database describing soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in periglacial terrain (European Russian Arctic) was used to evaluate spatial upscaling from point measurements using thematic maps. The selection of classes for upscaling and the need for replication in soil sampling were statistically evaluated. Upscaling using a land cover classification and a soil map estimated SOC storage to 48.5 and 47.0 kg C m(-2), respectively with 95% confidence intervals (CI) within +/- 8%. When corrected for spatial errors in the LCC upscaling proxy, SOC was estimated to 46.5 kg C m(-2) with a 95% CI reflecting propagated variance from both natural variability and spatial errors of +/- 11%. Artificially decreasing the size of the database used for upscaling showed that relatively stable results could be achieved with lower replication in some upscaling classes. Decreased spatial resolution for upscaling from 30 m to 1 km had little impact on SOC estimates in this region, but classification accuracy was dramatically reduced and land cover classes show different, sometimes nonlinear, responses to scale. The methods and recommendations presented here can provide guidelines for any future study where point observations of a variable are upscaled using remotely sensed thematic maps or classifications and potential applications for circum-arctic studies are discussed. For future upscaling studies at large geographic scales, a priori determination of sample sizes and tests to insure unimodal and statistically independent samples are recommended. If these prerequisites are not fulfilled, classes may be merged or subdivided prior to upscaling.
  •  
45.
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46.
  •  
47.
  • Hugelius, Gustaf, 1980- (författare)
  • Uncertainty analysis for estimates of soil organic carbon storage in permafrost terrain, a regionalstudy from the western Russian Arctic
  • 2011
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Studies of periglacial regions confirm their importance in the global carbon (C) cycle,but estimates of e.g. soil organic carbon (SOC) storage are poorly constrained and lack quantitativeestimates of errors following upscaling. In this study, a comprehensive regional SOC database from thenorthern Usa River Basin (European Russian Arctic, 55 000 km2) is used to evaluate the currentmethodology of SOC upscaling in periglacial terrain. The selection of classes for upscaling and the need forreplication in soil sampling are statistically evaluated. Upscaling using a land cover classification and a soilmap estimates SOC storage at 48.5 and 47.0 kg C m-2, respectively with 95% confidence intervals (CI)within ±8%. When corrected for spatial errors in the upscaling proxy, SOC is estimated to 46.5 kg C m-2with a 95% CI reflecting propagated variance from both natural variability and spatial errors of ±11%.Artificially decreasing the size of the database used for upscaling shows that relatively stable results can beachieved with lower replication in some upscaling classes. For future upscaling studies at large geographicscales, a priori determination of sample sizes and tests to insure unimodal and statistically independentsamples are recommended. If these prerequisites are not fulfilled, classes may be merged or subdividedprior to upscaling. Decreased spatial resolution for upscaling from 30 m to 1 km has little impact on SOCestimates in this region, but classification accuracy is dramatically reduced and land cover classes show different, sometimes non-linear, responses to scale.
  •  
48.
  • Humborg, Christoph, et al. (författare)
  • Environmental Impacts - Freshwater Biogeochemistry
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319160054 - 9783319160061 ; , s. 307-336
  • Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Climate change effects on freshwater biogeochemistry and riverine loads of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea are not straight forward and are difficult to distinguish from other human drivers such as atmospheric deposition, forest and wetland management, eutrophication and hydrological alterations. Eutrophication is by far the most well-known factor affecting the biogeochemistry of the receiving waters in the various sub-basins of the Baltic Sea. However, the present literature review reveals that climate change is a compounding factor for all major drivers of freshwater biogeochemistry discussed here, although evidence is still often based on short-term and/or small-scale studies.
  •  
49.
  • Humborg, Christoph, et al. (författare)
  • Environmental Impacts—Freshwater Biogeochemistry
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Second Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319160054 - 9783319160061 ; , s. 307-336
  • Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
  •  
50.
  • Jackson, Robert B., et al. (författare)
  • Human well-being and per capita energy use
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Ecosphere. - : Wiley. - 2150-8925 .- 2150-8925. ; 13:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Increased wealth and per capita energy use have transformed lives and shaped societies, but energy poverty remains a global challenge. Previous research has shown positive relationships among metrics of health and happiness and economic indices such as income and gross domestic product and between energy use and human development. To our knowledge, however, no comprehensive assessment has examined to what extent energy use may limit national-level trends in such metrics. We analyze the maximum global performance of nine health, economic, and environmental metrics by country, determining which metrics increase with per capita energy use and which show thresholds or plateaus in maximum performance. Across the dataset, eight of nine metrics, including life expectancy, infant mortality, happiness, food supply, and access to basic sanitation services, improve steeply and then plateau at levels of average primary annual energy consumption between 10 and 75 GJ person−1 computed nationally (five metrics plateau between 10 and 30 GJ person−1). One notable exception is air quality (energy threshold of 125 GJ person−1 across 133 countries). Averaged across metrics, the 10 countries (with at least seven metrics) showing the best performance given their per capita primary energy use are Malta, Sri Lanka, Cuba, Albania, Iceland, Finland, Bangladesh, Norway, Morocco, and Denmark. If distributed equitably, today's average global energy consumption of 79 GJ person−1 could, in principle, allow everyone on Earth to realize 95% or more of maximum performance across all metrics (and assuming no other limiting factors). Dozens of countries have average per capita energy use below this 79 GJ energy sufficiency threshold, highlighting the need to combat energy poverty. Surprisingly, our analysis also suggests that reduced per capita primary energy consumption could in principle occur in many higher energy-consuming countries with little or no loss in health, happiness, or other outcomes, reducing the need for global energy infrastructure and increasing global equity.
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