| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Karimi, Amir, et al.
(author)
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Drought Effects on Morpho-Physiological and Biochemical Traits in Persian Oak and Black Poplar Seedlings
- 2022
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In: Forests. - : MDPI. - 1999-4907. ; 13:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In many arid and semi-arid regions, increasing water scarcity pushes woody species to their physiological limits, making strong drought resistance essential for adaptive forest management. Here, we examined morpho-physiological and biochemical drought responses of the forestry-relevant Persian oak (Quercus brantii Lindl.) and black poplar (Populus nigra L.). In a 120-day greenhouse pot experiment, seedlings were subjected to three watering regimes (FC100, FC60, and FC30, indicating percentages of field capacity). Under FC100 conditions, all biomass measures and the total and specific leaf area of oak were significantly greater compared to those of poplar. FC60-exposed poplar seedlings exhibited strong declines in relative water content (RWC; -33%) and carotenoids (-46%) and a surge in electrolyte leakage (EL; +51%), while these parameters did not change significantly in oak. Although both species showed 80% EL under FC30 conditions, poplar suffered more severe drought damage than oak as evidenced by a 65% lower survival, stronger reductions in RWC and total chlorophyll, as well as stronger increases in oxidative stress markers. Accordingly, poplar seedlings displayed a drought-related 56% decline in quality index while only statistically insignificant reductions occurred in oak seedlings. The superior drought resistance of oak seedlings implies economically more viable nursery production and better seedling establishment, suggesting a shift towards Persian oak-dominated forestry in its natural range under future climate projections.
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| 9. |
- Karimi-Fard, Abbas, et al.
(author)
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Novel candidate genes for environmental stresses response in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 revealed by machine learning algorithms
- 2024
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In: Brazilian journal of microbiology (Impresso). - 1517-8382 .- 1678-4405.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cyanobacteria have developed acclimation strategies to adapt to harsh environments, making them a model organism. Understanding the molecular mechanisms of tolerance to abiotic stresses can help elucidate how cells change their gene expression patterns in response to stress. Recent advances in sequencing techniques and bioinformatics analysis methods have led to the discovery of many genes involved in stress response in organisms. The Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 is a suitable microorganism for studying transcriptome response under environmental stress. Therefore, for the first time, we employed two effective feature selection techniques namely and support vector machine recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) and LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage Selector Operator) to pinpoint the crucial genes responsive to environmental stresses in Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. We applied these algorithms of machine learning to analyze the transcriptomic data of Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 under distinct conditions, encompassing light, salt and iron stress conditions. Seven candidate genes namely sll1862, slr0650, sll0760, slr0091, ssl3044, slr1285, and slr1687 were selected by both LASSO and SVM-RFE algorithms. RNA-seq analysis was performed to validate the efficiency of our feature selection approach in selecting the most important genes. The RNA-seq analysis revealed significantly high expression for five genes namely sll1862, slr1687, ssl3044, slr1285, and slr0650 under ion stress condition. Among these five genes, ssl3044 and slr0650 could be introduced as new potential candidate genes for further confirmatory genetic studies, to determine their roles in their response to abiotic stresses.
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| 10. |
- Karimi, Masoud, et al.
(author)
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A retrospective study of extracolonic, non-endometrial cancer in Swedish Lynch syndrome families
- 2018
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In: Hereditary Cancer in Clinical Practice. - : BMC. - 1731-2302 .- 1897-4287. ; 16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundLynch Syndrome is an autosomal dominant cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic germ-line variants in one of the DNA-mismatch-repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2. Carriers are predisposed to colorectal and endometrial cancer, but also other cancer types. The purpose of this retrospective study was to characterize the tumour spectrum of the Swedish Lynch syndrome families.MethodsData were obtained from genetically verified 235 Lynch families from five of the six health care regions in Sweden. The material was stratified for gender, primary cancer, age and mutated gene and the relative proportions of specific cancer types were compared to those in the general population.ResultsA total of 1053 family members had 1493 cancer diagnoses of which 1011 were colorectal or endometrial cancer. Individuals with pathogenic variants in MLH1 and MSH2 comprised 78% of the cohort. Among the 482 non-colorectal/non-endometrial cancer diagnoses, MSH2 carriers demonstrated a significantly increased proportion of urinary tract, gastric, small bowel, ovarian and non-melanoma skin cancer compared to the normal population. MLH1 carriers had an elevated proportion of gastrointestinal cancers (gastric, small bowel, pancreas), while MSH6 carriers had more ovarian cancer than expected. Gastric cancer was predominantly noted in older generations.ConclusionLynch syndrome confers an increased risk for multiple cancers other than colorectal and endometrial cancer. The proportions of other cancers vary between different MMR genes, with highest frequency in MSH2-carriers. Gender and age also affect the tumour spectrum, demonstrating the importance of additional environmental and constitutional parameters in determining the predisposition for different cancer types.
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| 11. |
- Karimi, Masoud, et al.
(author)
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A retrospective study of extracolonic, non-endometrial cancer in Swedish Lynch syndrome families 11 Medical and Health Sciences 1112 Oncology and Carcinogenesis 11 Medical and Health Sciences 1117 Public Health and Health Services
- 2018
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In: Hereditary Cancer in Clinical Practice. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1731-2302 .- 1897-4287. ; 16:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Lynch Syndrome is an autosomal dominant cancer syndrome caused by pathogenic germ-line variants in one of the DNA-mismatch-repair (MMR) genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2. Carriers are predisposed to colorectal and endometrial cancer, but also other cancer types. The purpose of this retrospective study was to characterize the tumour spectrum of the Swedish Lynch syndrome families. Methods: Data were obtained from genetically verified 235 Lynch families from five of the six health care regions in Sweden. The material was stratified for gender, primary cancer, age and mutated gene and the relative proportions of specific cancer types were compared to those in the general population. Results: A total of 1053 family members had 1493 cancer diagnoses of which 1011 were colorectal or endometrial cancer. Individuals with pathogenic variants in MLH1 and MSH2 comprised 78% of the cohort. Among the 482 non-colorectal/non-endometrial cancer diagnoses, MSH2 carriers demonstrated a significantly increased proportion of urinary tract, gastric, small bowel, ovarian and non-melanoma skin cancer compared to the normal population. MLH1 carriers had an elevated proportion of gastrointestinal cancers (gastric, small bowel, pancreas), while MSH6 carriers had more ovarian cancer than expected. Gastric cancer was predominantly noted in older generations. Conclusion: Lynch syndrome confers an increased risk for multiple cancers other than colorectal and endometrial cancer. The proportions of other cancers vary between different MMR genes, with highest frequency in MSH2-carriers. Gender and age also affect the tumour spectrum, demonstrating the importance of additional environmental and constitutional parameters in determining the predisposition for different cancer types.
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| 12. |
- Karimi, Masoud, et al.
(author)
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Associations between Response to Commonly Used Neo-Adjuvant Schedules in Rectal Cancer and Routinely Collected Clinical and Imaging Parameters
- 2022
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In: Cancers. - : MDPI. - 2072-6694. ; 14:24
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Complete pathological response (pCR) is achieved in 10–20% of rectal cancers when treated with short-course radiotherapy (scRT) or long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and in 28% with total neoadjuvant therapy (scRT/CRT + CTX). pCR is associated with better outcomes and a “watch-and-wait” strategy (W&W). The aim of this study was to identify baseline clinical or imaging factors predicting pCR. All patients with preoperative treatment and delays to surgery in Uppsala-Dalarna (n = 359) and Stockholm (n = 635) were included. Comparison of pCR versus non-pCR was performed with binary logistic regression models. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) models for predicting pCR were built using factors with p < 0.10 in multivariate analyses. A pCR was achieved in 12% of the 994 patients (scRT 8% [33/435], CRT 13% [48/358], scRT/CRT + CTX 21% [43/201]). In univariate and multivariate analyses, choice of CRT (OR 2.62; 95%CI 1.34–5.14, scRT reference) or scRT/CRT + CTX (4.70; 2.23–9.93), cT1–2 (3.37; 1.30–8.78; cT4 reference), tumour length ≤ 3.5 cm (2.27; 1.24–4.18), and CEA ≤ 5 µg/L (1.73; 1.04–2.90) demonstrated significant associations with achievement of pCR. Age < 70 years, time from radiotherapy to surgery > 11 weeks, leucocytes ≤ 109/L, and thrombocytes ≤ 4009/L were significant only in univariate analyses. The associations were not fundamentally different between treatments. A model including T-stage, tumour length, CEA, and leucocytes (with scores of 0, 0.5, or 1 for each factor, maximum 4 points) showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.66 (95%CI 0.60–0.71) for all patients, and 0.65–0.73 for the three treatments separately. The choice of neoadjuvant treatment in combination with low CEA, short tumour length, low cT-stage, and normal leucocytes provide support in predicting pCR and, thus, could offer guidance for selecting patients for organ preservation.Simple SummaryWe studied real-world patients with locally advanced rectal cancer receiving preoperative radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy. The aim was to find factors associated with complete response to therapy, i.e., no remaining tumour, that could be used to identify patients who would not need surgery in the future. Tumour stage and length, intensity of preoperative treatment, and laboratory factors, such as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), leucocyte counts, and platelets, were all associated with complete response. Treatment intensity mattered and when radiotherapy was combined with chemotherapy, 21% had a complete response compared to 8% with radiotherapy alone. A model for identifying patients with a better chance of achieving a complete response was developed using tumour stage and length, CEA, and leukocyte levels as factors predicting complete response.
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| 13. |
- Karimi, Masoud
(author)
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Prognostic and predictive factors for colorectal cancer
- 2023
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Colorectal cancer is the third most common cancer worldwide of which approximately 30% of cases are localized in the rectum. Rectal cancer accounts for around 700, 000 cases and 310, 000 deaths annually across the world with a global distribution that varies due to different lifestyles. Treatment of rectal cancer has evolved significantly during the past few decades, from being treated with surgery only to a multidisciplinary multimodal complex treatment plan with radiotherapy and chemotherapy. Consequently, a major improvement in oncologic outcomes has been witnessed with dramatically reduced local recurrence (LR) rates from more than 30%-40% 40 years ago to today’s level of 5%-6%. Study I aimed to find natural products in the NCI (National Cancer Institute, US) database with selective antitumoural effects towards cancer cells with a mutated p53 gene. For this purpose, we performed a screen of the NCI bank of natural extracts for substances with potential selective effects on cancer cells harbouring a mutated p53 gene. Only one of several selected natural extracts, N37063 demonstrated this selectivity towards p53 in our in vitro assay in several cancer cell lines. Two substances were purified from the extract which harboured most of the preferential cytotoxic effect in p53-mutated cancer cells. Study II aimed to examine the spectrum of tumours in Swedish Lynch syndrome families. Lynch syndrome is characterized by hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) that emerges at a young age. These patients experience colorectal cancer and endometrial cancer in their 40s and are predisposed to other malignant diseases that affect these individuals more than the general population. In this study, we demonstrated that urothelial cell cancer is the most common malignancy in the Swedish Lynch population after CRC and endometrial cancer. Furthermore, an increased proportion of gastric cancer, small bowel cancer, nonmelanoma skin cancer, and ovarian cancer were observed. Study III aimed to identify clinical parameters which could potentially predict a pathologic complete response (pCR) in preoperatively treated rectal cancers. Clinical parameters consisted of baseline imaging parameters of the rectal tumour and baseline pretreatment clinical and laboratory parameters before the start of oncologic treatment. We identified associations between pCR and preoperative treatment, low carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), non-elevated leucocytes, cT (magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]-defined Tstage), and MRI-estimated tumour length. A predictive model based on significant parameters was proposed. Study IV aimed to examine the value of the neoadjuvant rectal score (NAR score) as a short-term surrogate endpoint for oncological outcomes, including time to recurrence (TTR), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS), in rectal cancer patients treated preoperatively with short course radiotherapy (scRT), chemoradiotherapy (CRT), or one of these schedules in combination with systemic chemotherapy (scRT/CRT+CTX). We investigated correlations between NAR score for outcomes for all patients and in different treatment cohorts. A statistically significant correlation between NAR score and TTR, CSS, and OS outcomes in a treatment-dependent manner was observed. The prognostic value of NAR could be improved by combining pathological extramural vascular invasion and perineural invasion.
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| 14. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(author)
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Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 17. |
- Shirazian, Masoud, et al.
(author)
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Network-Aided Reduction of Slope Distances in Small-Scale Geodetic Control Networks
- 2021
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In: Journal of Surveying Engineering. - : ASCE-The American Society of Civil Engineers. - 0733-9453 .- 1943-5428. ; 147:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Most of the human-made infrastructures (e.g., dams) need very precise geodetic networks and constant monitoring to detect risks of failure and to plan civil engineering maintenance works. The combination of different measurements helps in determining displacements with high precision; therefore, the risk of damages is reduced. In this paper, we present a new approach, which considers a special geodetic observation strategy as a method to significantly reduce the volume of operations of a precise geodetic network and changes the designing concept of such networks. Decrease in data collection time and cost while keeping or increasing the quality of control networks has been one of the most important goals of any network designer. This paper proposes a method exploiting network properties to convert slope distances to the horizontal ones to be used in the classic terrestrial geodetic two-dimensional (2D) networks. We have evaluated the proposed method in different dam geodetic control networks in Iran. The network adjustment results show the acceptable performance of the presented method compared with the methods that are currently in use.
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| 18. |
- von Salomé, Jenny, et al.
(author)
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Genetic anticipation in Swedish Lynch syndrome families
- 2017
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In: PLoS Genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7390 .- 1553-7404. ; 13:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Among hereditary colorectal cancer predisposing syndromes, Lynch syndrome (LS) caused by mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 or PMS2 is the most common. Patients with LS have an increased risk of early onset colon and endometrial cancer, but also other tumors that generally have an earlier onset compared to the general population. However, age at first primary cancer varies within families and genetic anticipation, i.e. decreasing age at onset in successive generations, has been suggested in LS. Anticipation is a well-known phenomenon in e.g neurodegenerative diseases and several reports have studied anticipation in heritable cancer. The purpose of this study is to determine whether anticipation can be shown in a large cohort of Swedish LS families referred to the regional departments of clinical genetics in Lund, Stockholm, Linköping, Uppsala and Umeå between the years 1990–2013. We analyzed a homogenous group of mutation carriers, utilizing information from both affected and non-affected family members. In total, 239 families with a mismatch repair gene mutation (96 MLH1 families, 90 MSH2 families including one family with an EPCAM–MSH2 deletion, 39 MSH6 families, 12 PMS2 families, and 2 MLH1+PMS2 families) comprising 1028 at-risk carriers were identified among the Swedish LS families, of which 1003 mutation carriers had available follow-up information and could be included in the study. Using a normal random effects model (NREM) we estimate a 2.1 year decrease in age of diagnosis per generation. An alternative analysis using a mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards model (COX-R) estimates a hazard ratio of exp(0.171), or about 1.19, for age of diagnosis between consecutive generations. LS-associated gene-specific anticipation effects are evident for MSH2 (2.6 years/generation for NREM and hazard ratio of 1.33 for COX-R) and PMS2 (7.3 years/generation and hazard ratio of 1.86). The estimated anticipation effects for MLH1 and MSH6 are smaller.
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