| 1. |
- Psaltopoulos, Demetrios, et al.
(author)
-
False positive and false negative errors in the design and implementation of agri-environmental policies : A case study on water quality and agricultural nutrients
- 2017
-
In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 575, s. 1087-1099
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- When designing and implementing agri-environmental policies to reduce nutrient loss, action programmes may falsely address areas where the nutrient issue from agricultural activity is not currently important and is not likely to become so in the future (a false positive), or may fail to address areas where the agricultural nutrient issue is currently important or may likely become so in the future (a false negative). Based on a case study of the Louros watershed in Greece, this work identifies database and modelling sources of false positives and negatives and proposes a decision making process aimed at minimizing the possibility of committing such errors. The baseline is well simulated and shows that the Louro's watershed falls behind a Good Environmental Status, at least marginally. Simulated mitigation measures show that the river's status can be upgraded to "Good", at least as concerns nitrates and ammonium. Simulated climate change does not seem to exert an important positive or negative effect. Land use changes forecasting considerably less cultivated area have a significant effect on Total Phosphorous but not on nitrates or ammonium concentrations. The non-linearity between nutrient disposition (inputs) and nutrient concentration in downstream water bodies (output) and the many factors that affect the nutrient disposition-transportation-concentration chain, highlights the importance of simulating the effects of mitigation actions and of future climate and land use changes before adopting and establishing agri-environmental measures.
|
|
| 2. |
- Moss, Brian D., et al.
(author)
-
Climate change and the future of freshwater biodiversity in Europe : a primer for policy-makers
- 2009
-
In: Freshwater Reviews. - : Freshwater Biological Association. - 1755-084X. ; 2:2, s. 103-130
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Earth's climate is changing, and by the end of the 21st century in Europe, average temperatures are likely to have risen by at least 2 °C, and more likely 4 °C with associated effects on patterns of precipitation and the frequency of extreme weather events. Attention among policy-makers is divided about how to minimise the change, how to mitigate its effects, how to maintain the natural resources on which societies depend and how to adapt human societies to the changes. Natural systems are still seen, through a long tradition of conservation management that is largely species-based, as amenable to adaptive management, and biodiversity, mostly perceived as the richness of plant and vertebrate communities, often forms a focus for planning. We argue that prediction of particular species changes will be possible only in a minority of cases but that prediction of trends in general structure and operation of four generic freshwater ecosystems (erosive rivers, depositional floodplain rivers, shallow lakes and deep lakes) in three broad zones of Europe (Mediterranean, Central and Arctic-Boreal) is practicable. Maintenance and rehabilitation of ecological structures and operations will inevitably and incidentally embrace restoration of appropriate levels of species biodiversity. Using expert judgement, based on an extensive literature, we have outlined, primarily for lay policy makers, the pristine features of these systems, their states under current human impacts, how these states are likely to alter with a warming of 2 °C to 4 °C and what might be done to mitigate this. We have avoided technical terms in the interests of communication, and although we have included full referencing as in academic papers, we have eliminated degrees of detail that could confuse broad policy-making
|
|
| 3. |
- Woolway, R. Iestyn, et al.
(author)
-
Diel Surface Temperature Range Scales with Lake Size
- 2016
-
In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Ecological and biogeochemical processes in lakes are strongly dependent upon water temperature. Long-term surface warming of many lakes is unequivocal, but little is known about the comparative magnitude of temperature variation at diel timescales, due to a lack of appropriately resolved data. Here we quantify the pattern and magnitude of diel temperature variability of surface waters using high-frequency data from 100 lakes. We show that the near-surface diel temperature range can be substantial in summer relative to long-term change and, for lakes smaller than 3 km(2), increases sharply and predictably with decreasing lake area. Most small lakes included in this study experience average summer diel ranges in their near-surface temperatures of between 4 and 7 degrees C. Large diel temperature fluctuations in the majority of lakes undoubtedly influence their structure, function and role in biogeochemical cycles, but the full implications remain largely unexplored.
|
|
