SwePub - search: WFRF:(Kolk Martin 1986 )

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1.	Gardner, Eugene J., et al. (author) Reduced reproductive success is associated with selective constraint on human genes 2022 In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 603:7903, s. 858-863 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Genome-wide sequencing of human populations has revealed substantial variation among genes in the intensity of purifying selection acting on damaging genetic variants1. Although genes under the strongest selective constraint are highly enriched for associations with Mendelian disorders, most of these genes are not associated with disease and therefore the nature of the selection acting on them is not known2. Here we show that genetic variants that damage these genes are associated with markedly reduced reproductive success, primarily owing to increased childlessness, with a stronger effect in males than in females. We present evidence that increased childlessness is probably mediated by genetically associated cognitive and behavioural traits, which may mean that male carriers are less likely to find reproductive partners. This reduction in reproductive success may account for 20% of purifying selection against heterozygous variants that ablate protein-coding genes. Although this genetic association may only account for a very minor fraction of the overall likelihood of being childless (less than 1%), especially when compared to more influential sociodemographic factors, it may influence how genes evolve over time.
2.	Barclay, Kieron, 1986-, et al. (author) Birth order and mortality : a population-based cohort study 2015 In: Demography. - : Duke University Press. - 0070-3370 .- 1533-7790. ; 52:2, s. 613-639 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This study uses Swedish population register data to investigate the relationship between birth order and mortality in adulthood over the ages 30 to 69 for Swedish cohorts born between 1938 and 1960, using a within-family comparison. The main analyses are conducted with discrete-time survival analysis using a within-family comparison, and the estimates are adjusted for age, mother's age at the time of birth, and cohort. Focusing on sibships ranging in size from two to six, we find that mortality risk in adulthood increases with later birth order. The results show that the relative effect of birth order is greater amongst women than amongst men. This pattern is consistent for all the major causes of death, but is particularly pronounced for mortality attributable to cancers of the respiratory system, and external causes. Further analyses where we adjust for adult socioeconomic status and adult educational attainment suggest that social pathways only mediate the relationship between birth order and mortality risk in adulthood to a limited degree.
3.	Barclay, Kieron, 1986-, et al. (author) Birth spacing and health outcomes : differences across the life course and developmental contexts 2020 In: Handbook on Demographic Change and the Lifecourse. - : Edward Elgar Publishing. - 9781788974868 - 9781788974875 ; , s. 170-181 Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract In this chapter the authors discuss research on the effects of long and short birth spacing from the perspective of children (the time interval between the births of adjacent siblings). Recent research has placed doubt on previous findings of adverse effects of short birth intervals on birth outcomes as well as short-, medium-, and long-term health, educational, and socioeconomic attainment outcomes. They summarize recent findings with a particular focus on impacts over the lifecourse, and the extent to which findings are applicable at various levels of social and economic development. The authors also briefly discuss the effects of birth spacing in the broader context of research examining the effects of early life conditions on adult outcomes.
4.	Barclay, Kieron, 1986-, et al. (author) Birth Spacing and Parents' Physical and Mental Health : An Analysis Using Individual and Sibling Fixed Effects 2024 In: Demography. - 0070-3370 .- 1533-7790. ; 61:2, s. 393-418 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract An exten sive lit er a ture has exam ined the rela tion ship between birth spac ing and sub se quent health out comes for par ents, par tic u larly for moth ers. However, this research has drawn almost exclu sively on obser va tional research designs, and almost all stud ies have been lim ited to adjusting for observ able fac tors that could con found the rela tion ship between birth spac ing and health out comes. In this study, we use Nor we gian reg is ter data to exam ine the rela tion ship between birth spac ing and the num ber of gen eral prac ti tioner con sul ta tions for moth ers' and fathers' phys i cal and men tal health con cerns imme di ately after child birth (1-5 and 6-11 months after child birth), in the medium term (5-6 years after child bear ing), and in the long term (10-11 years after child bear ing). To exam ine short term health out comes, we esti mate indi vid ual fixed-effects mod els: we hold con stant fac tors that could influ ence par ents' birth spacing behav ior and their health, com par ing health out comes after differ ent births to the same par ent. We apply sib ling fixed effects in our anal y sis of medium- and long-term out comes, hold ing con stant moth ers' and fathers' fam ily back grounds. The results from our ana ly ses that do not apply indi vid ual or sib ling fixed effects are con sis tent with much of the pre vi ous lit er a ture: shorter and lon ger birth inter vals are asso ci ated with worse health out comes than birth inter vals of approx i ma tely 2-3 years. Estimates from indi vid ual fixed-effects mod els sug gest that par tic u larly short inter vals have a mod est neg a tive effect on mater nal men tal health in the short term, with more ambig u ous evi dence that par tic u larly short or long inter vals might mod estly influ ence short-, medium, and longterm phys i cal health out comes. Overall, these results are con sis tent with small to neg li gi ble effects of birth spac ing behav ior on (nonpreg nancyrelated) parental health outcomes.
5.	Hällsten, Martin, 1980-, et al. (author) The Shadow of Peasant Past : Seven Generations of Inequality Persistence in Northern Sweden 2023 In: American Journal of Sociology. - 0002-9602 .- 1537-5390. ; 128:6, s. 1716-1760 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The authors use administrative data linked to parish records from northern Sweden to study how persistent inequality is across multiple generations in education, occupation, and wealth, going from historical to contemporary time. The data cover seven generations and allow the authors to follow ancestors of individuals living in Sweden around the new millennium back more than 200 years, covering the mid-18th century to the 21st century. In a sample of around 75,000 traceable descendants, they analyze (a) up to fifth cousin correlations and (b) dynastic correlations over seven generations based on aggregations of ancestors’ social class/status. With both approaches, the authors find that past generations structure life chances many generations later, even though the results align with traditional stratification research in that mobility across multiple generations is high. The results imply that today’s inequality regime may have been formed many generations back.
6.	Andersson, Gunnar, 1962-, et al. (author) Trends in Childbearing and Nuptiality in Sweden : An Update with Data up to 2007 2011 In: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. - Helsinki : The Population Research Institute. - 1796-6183. ; XLVI, s. 21-29 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We present an update of the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation added to previously published series. We demonstrate that fertility in Sweden continued its upward trend during much of the first decade of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. It is driven by the halt in postponement of first childbearing at the younger ages and the continued fertility recuperation at higher ages. Marriage propensities increased as well, reversing a decades-long trend of decreasing marriage rates. The trend reversal comprises first marriages and remarriages alike. Interestingly, the increased popularity of marriage and childbearing is accompanied with a slight decline in divorce risks during the first decade of the new century.
7.	Andersson, Gunnar, 1962-, et al. (author) Trends in Childbearing, Marriage and Divorce in Sweden : An Update with Data up to 2012 2015 In: Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. - : Finnish Yearbook of Population Research. - 1796-6183 .- 1796-6191. ; 50, s. 21-30 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We present an update of the main and parity-specific trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden presented in Finnish Yearbook of Population Research 2011. Based on Swedish register data, previous time series of relative risks of childbearing, marriage, and divorce by calendar year are updated with another five years of observation. We demonstrate that more than a decade of increasing fertility levels turned into moderate fertility declines in 2011. This trend change pertains to all main birth orders. Marriage propensities continued to increase for mothers but stagnated for the childless. Since the turn of the century, trends in divorce risks seem to have leveled off, altogether reflecting a more prevalent role of marriage in recent Swedish family dynamics.
8.	Andersson, Linus, 1985-, et al. (author) Kinship and socio-economic status : Social gradients in frequencies of kin across the life course in Sweden 2023 In: Population Studies. - 0032-4728 .- 1477-4747. Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort’s income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.
9.	Barclay, Kieron, 1986-, et al. (author) Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality : A sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data 2016 In: Social Science and Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-9536 .- 1873-5347. ; 155, s. 82-92 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association.
10.	Barclay, Kieron, et al. (author) The Long-Term Cognitive and Socioeconomic Consequences of Birth Intervals : A Within-Family Sibling Comparison Using Swedish Register Data 2017 In: Demography. - : Duke University Press. - 0070-3370 .- 1533-7790. ; 54:2, s. 459-484 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We examine the relationship between birth-to-birth intervals and a variety of mid- and long-term cognitive and socioeconomic outcomes, including high school GPA, cognitive ability, educational attainment, earnings, unemployment status, and receiving government welfare support. Using contemporary Swedish population register data and a within-family sibling comparison design, we find that neither the birth interval preceding the index person nor the birth interval following the index person are associated with any substantively meaningful changes in mid- or long-term outcomes. This is true even for individuals born before or after birth-to-birth intervals of less than 12 months. We conclude that in a contemporary high-income welfare state, there appears to be no relationship between unusually short or long birth intervals and adverse long-term outcomes.
11.	Campbell, Tim, et al. (author) Universal Procreation Rights and Future Generations 2023 In: Journal of Applied Philosophy. - : Wiley. - 0264-3758 .- 1468-5930. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract It is often acknowledged that public policies can constrain people's procreative opportunities, in some cases even infringing their procreative rights. However, a topic that is not often discussed is how the procreative choices of one generation can affect the procreative opportunities of later generations. In this article, we argue that the demographic fact that childbearing above the replacement fertility level is eventually unsustainable supports two constraints on universal procreation rights: a compossibility constraint and an egalitarian constraint. We explore the implications of these two constraints and suggest that there are reasons to think of procreative opportunity as a finite resource that can be distributed more or less equally across generations. We also briefly discuss possible ways of meeting demands of intergenerational justice with respect to procreative opportunity.
12.	Dahlberg, Johan, 1978-, et al. (author) Explaining Swedish sibling similarity in fertility : Parental fertility behavior vs. social background 2018 In: Demographic Research. - 1435-9871. ; 39, s. 883-896 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objective: The aim of this descriptive study is to determine which of the family-specific factors, parental fertility behavior or social background, matters most for the intergenerational transmission of fertility.Methods: Brother and sister correlations in age at first birth and final family size were estimated using multilevel linear regression on data covering 242,976 Swedish men and women born between 1958 and 1967. To explore how much of siblings’ similarity in fertility can be explained by parental fertility behavior (age at parenthood and number of children) and social background, we analyzed the decrease in sibling correlation when these family-specific factors were added to the unconditional models.Results: We found that most of siblings’ similarity in fertility could not be explained by parental fertility behavior and social background, but that they explained a substantive part of siblings’ similarities in age at first birth and a smaller but non-negligible part of siblings’ similarities in completed fertility. Parental fertility behavior and social background explain as much (about 36%) of brothers’ and sisters’ similarities in age at first birth. Parental fertility behavior matters more than social background for sisters’ similarities in completed family size. Parental fertility behavior and social background explain about the same (5%) for brothers’ similarities in completed family size.Contribution: This study contributes to the existing understanding of intergenerational transmission of fertility; both methodologically, by introducing a new method to estimate the impact of specific factors shared by siblings, and by determining how much of siblings’ resemblance in fertility can be explained by parental fertility behavior and social background.
13.	Drefahl, Sven, et al. (author) Dödlighet 2017 In: Demografi. - Lund : Studentlitteratur AB. - 9789144119038 ; , s. 67-92 Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
14.	Eriksson, Helen, 1983-, et al. (author) Parental union dissolution and the gender revolution 2024 In: Social Forces. - 0037-7732 .- 1534-7605. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This study investigates two concurrent trends across Europe and North America: the increasing instability of parental unions and men’s rising contributions to household work. Because children have almost universally resided with their mothers and it is difficult for non-residential fathers to maintain any levels of care work, union dissolutions have potentially slowed societal increases in gender equality. A new family form—50/50 living arrangements—has begun to challenge our understanding of the consequences of union dissolution. Since 50/50 residence requires fathers to take full care responsibility for the child half of the time—something few partnered fathers do—it may even push parents into a more egalitarian division of care work. We have studied care work using Swedish administrative data on parents’ leave from work to care for a sick child. We have created a panel of leave-sharing for children aged 2–11, and use an event-study design to estimate the causal effect of dissolution on the sharing of sick-child leave. The results show that in parental unions dissolving today, the dissolution leads to an increase in fathers’ share of sick-child leave. Whereas union dissolutions have for decades been slowing the gender revolution in Sweden, they are now accelerating it.
15.	Grätz, Michael, et al. (author) Sibling similarity in income : A life course perspective 2022 In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. - : Elsevier BV. - 0276-5624 .- 1878-5654. ; 78 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Sibling similarity in income is a measure of the omnibus effect of family and community background on income. We estimate sibling similarity in income accumulated over the life course (ages 18 to 60) to demonstrate that previous research has underestimated sibling similarity in income. Using high-quality Swedish register data, we find sibling similarity in accumulated, lifetime income to be much higher than sibling similarity in income measured over a short number of years. In addition, we test theories predicting variation in sibling similarity over the life course. We find that, contrary to predictions derived from the model of cumulative advantage, sibling similarity in accumulated income is largely stable over the life course. Sister correlations in income are lower than brother correlations but differences diminish across cohorts. We also find largely the same amount of sibling similarity in accumulated income in socioeconomically advantaged and disadvantaged families. We conclude by discussing the importance of using accumulated income for understanding trends and mechanisms underlying the omnibus effect of family and community background on income.
16.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) A Life-Course Analysis of Geographical Distance to Siblings, Parents, and Grandparents in Sweden 2017 In: Population, Space and Place. - : Wiley. - 1544-8444 .- 1544-8452. ; 23:3 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This study makes a contribution to the demography and geography of kinship by studying how internal migration and demography shape the geographical availability of kin in contemporary Sweden. Age structures an individual's relationship with their parents and other kin, and this is reflected in how geographical distance to kin varies over the life course. This study uses a longitudinal approach in which the distance to siblings, parents, and grandparents is measured for the same individuals at different ages. The study follows all men and women in Sweden born in 1970 (N = 74,406) and their kin from age 10 (in 1980) to age 37 (in 2007), examining changes in distances to kin at ages when the cohort leave the parental home and often begin a new family. Swedish administrative registers containing yearly information on residence of everyone in Sweden are used to examine how geographical proximity changes over the life course. The study reveals overall continuity in geographical distance to family members after age 25. Overall, results show that Swedes live close to parents, siblings, and grandparents and have a large family network in their proximity.
17.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Cognitive ability and fertility among Swedish men born 1951–1967 : evidence from military conscription registers 2019 In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 286:1902 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We examine the relationship between cognitive ability and childbearing patterns in contemporary Sweden using administrative register data. The topic has a long history in the social sciences and has been the topic of a large number of studies, many reporting a negative gradient between intelligence and fertility. We link fertility histories to military conscription tests with intelligence scores for all Swedish men born 1951 to 1967. We find a positive relationship between intelligence scores and fertility, and this pattern is consistent across the cohorts we study. The relationship is most pronounced for the transition to a first child, and men with the lowest categories of IQ-scores have the fewest children. Using fixed effects models we additionally control for all factors that are shared by siblings, and after such adjustments we find a stronger positive relationship between IQ and fertility. Furthermore, we find a positive gradient within groups at different levels of education. Compositional differences of this kind are therefore not responsible for the positive gradient we observe - instead the relationship is even stronger after controlling for both educational careers and parental background factors. In our models where we compare brothers to one another we find that, relative to men with IQ 100, the group with the lowest category of cognitive ability have 0.56 fewer children, and men with the highest category have 0.09 more children.
18.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Correlations in fertility across generations : can low fertility persist? 2014 In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 281:1779, s. 20132561- Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Correlations in family size across generations could have a major influence on human population size in the future. Empirical studies have shown that the associations between the fertility of parents and the fertility of children are substantial and growing over time. Despite their potential long-term consequences, intergenerational fertility correlations have largely been ignored by researchers. We present a model of the fertility transition as a cultural process acting on new lifestyles associated with fertility. Differences in parental and social influences on the acquisition of these lifestyles result in intergenerational correlations in fertility. We show different scenarios for future population size based on models that disregard intergenerational correlations in fertility, models with fertility correlations and a single lifestyle, and models with fertility correlations and multiple lifestyles. We show that intergenerational fertility correlations will result in an increase in fertility over time. However, present low-fertility levels may persist if the rapid introduction of new cultural lifestyles continues into the future.
19.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Deliberate Birth Spacing in Nineteenth Century Northern Sweden 2011 In: European Journal of Population. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0168-6577 .- 1572-9885. ; 27:3, s. 337-359 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Fertility in nineteenth century Europe before the fertility transition has been described as high, unregulated, and stable; the extent of fertility control remains a controversial topic. The aim of this study is to determine whether there is evidence of deliberate birth spacing in northern Sweden prior to the onset of the fertility transition. This study analyses micro-level parish records of 9,636 women in nineteenth century northern Sweden—a remote but, at the time, economically dynamic frontier region of Sweden. Event history analysis reveals evidence of birth spacing that suggests some conscious birth control. Piecewise exponential models of the transition from second to third birth reveal circumstances in which parents increased or decreased the time to next birth. The results on the survival of previous children, geographic context, sex of previous children, and variations in grain prices all indicate that parents deliberately manipulated the spacing between births.
20.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Excess mortality and COVID-19 in Sweden in 2020 : A demographic account 2022 In: Vienna Yearbook of Population Research. - : Osterreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Verlag. - 1728-4414 .- 1728-5305. ; 20 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract In this study, we provide an account of mortality levels in Sweden in 2020, focusing on both excess mortality and mortality due to COVID-19 deaths.We present various measures of life expectancy for women and men based on age-specific death rates in 2020. Our measures of excess mortality are based on comparisons with benchmarks derived from a previous mortality forecast for 2020 by Statistics Sweden and observed average mortality rates during 2017–2019. We present data on regional and seasonal variation in excess mortality, as well as estimates of Years of Potential Life Lost due to COVID-19. We decompose excess mortality in 2020 into excess mortality due to COVID-19 and excess mortality attributable to other causes. We also provide some estimates on the impact of excess mortality in 2020 on the remaining life expectancy for different cohorts of women and men in Sweden. We demonstrate that the impact of COVID-19 mortality was concentrated at higher ages, and among men in particular. Conversely, some younger age groups experienced negative excess mortality. The mortality changes during 2020 caused life expectancy levels to revert back to those observed in 2018 for women and in 2017 for men.
21.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Fading family lines- women and men without children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren in 19th, 20th and 21st Century Northern Sweden 2022 In: Advances in Life Course Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-2608. ; 53 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We studied to what extent family lines die out over the course of 122 years based on Swedish population-level data. Our data included demographic and socioeconomic information for four generations in the Skellefteå region of northern Sweden from 1885 to 2007. The first generation in our sample consisted of men and women born between 1885 and 1899 (N = 5850), and we observed their children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. We found that 48% of the first generation did not have any living descendants (great-grandchildren) by 2007. The risk of a family line dying out within the four-generational framework was highest among those who had relatively low fertility in the first generation. Mortality during reproductive years was also a leading reason why individuals in the first generation ended up with a greater risk of not leaving descendants. We identified socioeconomic differences: both the highest-status and the lowest-status occupational groups saw an increased risk of not leaving any descendants. Almost all lineages that made it to the third generation also made it to the fourth generation.
22.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Kinas demografiska utveckling och dess betydelse för framtiden 2023 Reports (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract Kinas demografi har förändrats dramatiskt under 1900-talet och början av 2000-talet och kommer, till följd av att befolkningen minskar i en accelererande takt, fortsätta att göra det de kommande decennierna.Kinesisk demografi har i jämförelse med andra länder i ovanligt hög grad påverkats av statlig befolkningspolitik som styrt flera aspekter av den demografiska utvecklingen som barnafödande och förflyttningsmönster.Som en konsekvens av Kinas repressiva befolkningspolitik har barnafödande sjunkit sedan 1970-talet. Det kommer vara svårt att förändra de nuvarande demografiska mönstren, och Kina kommer sannolikt fortsatt ha ett lågt barnafödande de närmaste decennierna. Få andra länder har lyckats vända en så negativ nedgång i barnafödandet.Kina har idag ett mycket begränsat välfärdssystem, vilket både bidrar till ett lågt barnafödande, att äldre saknar tillgång till pensioner, och en svag sjukvård. Det gör att många kostnader för barnafödande, sjukvård och äldreomsorg finansieras privat.Det är osannolikt att Kina kommer utveckla ett universellt välfärdssystem inom överskådlig framtid, även om det är mjöligt att välfärdssystemet skulle kunna byggas ut i Kinas rikare regioner. Det finns lite som tyder på att Kina kommer att genomföra de omfattande familjepolitiska åtgärder som krävs för att vända trender kring minskat barnafödande.Kinas åldrande befolkning kommer att ha negativa effekter på Kinas ekonomi, försörjningsbörda och välfärdssystem från 2040-talet och framåt. Om de mycket låga nivåer för barnafödande som observeras i Kina kring 2020 fortsätter, kommer konsekvenserna för Kinas åldersstruktur att bli dramatiska från 2050-talet och framåt.En åldrande och minskande befolkning kommer ha störst effekt på Kinas inhemska ekonomi och välfärdssystem, men det kommer på lång sikt även ha en negativ inverkan på Kinas geopolitiska inflytande. Kinas globala inflytande kommer sannolikt att försvagas mer än EU, USA, och Indiens, vilka kommer ha en större befolkningstillväxt än Kina, medan Kinas östasiatiska grannländer kommer möta liknande åldersstrukturrelaterade utmaningar som Kina.
23.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Multigenerational Processes in Demography 2014 Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract Contemporary social science research has often focused on nuclear family relationships, and has largely neglected kinship and family outside the nuclear household. In this doctoral thesis I explore demographic issues from a multigenerational perspective, using Swedish register data and mathematical modeling. In different chapters I examine intergenerational transmission of fertility—the relationship between the number of siblings and other kin, and the fertility of an individual. The thesis demonstrates the possibilities for empirical research on family and kinship based on Swedish register data. Unique linkage opportunities across three and four generations are applied to previously unexplored research questions. The studies in the thesis demonstrate the importance of kin outside the household, such as grandparents, aunts/uncles, and cousins, for fertility and family dynamics.
24.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Multigenerational transmission of family size in contemporary Sweden 2014 In: Population Studies. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0032-4728 .- 1477-4747. ; 68:1, s. 111-129 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The study of the intergenerational transmission of fertility has a long history in demography, but until now research has focused primarily on parents' influence on their children's fertility patterns and has largely overlooked the possible influence of other kin. This study examines the transmission of fertility patterns from parents, grandparents, uncles, and aunts, using event history models to determine the risk of first, second, and third births. Swedish register data are used to study the 1970-82 birth cohorts. The findings indicate strong associations between the fertility of index persons and that of their parents, and also independent associations between the completed fertility of index persons and that of their grandparents and parents' siblings. The results suggest that, when examining background effects in fertility research, it is relevant to take a multigenerational perspective and to consider the characteristics of extended kin.
25.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Sex Selection for Daughters : Demographic Consequences of Female-Biased Sex Ratios 2022 In: Population. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0167-5923 .- 1573-7829. ; 41:4, s. 1619-1639 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Modern fertility techniques allow parents to carry out preimplantation sex selection. Sex selection for non-medical purposes is legal in many high-income countries, and social norms toward assisted reproductive technology are increasingly permissive and may plausibly become increasingly prevalent in the near future. We explore possible outcomes of widely observed daughter preferences in many high-income countries and explore the demographic consequences of the adoption of sex selection for daughters. While concerns over son preference have been widely discussed, sex selection that favors female children is a more likely outcome in high-income countries. If sex selection is adopted, it may bias the sex ratio in a given population. Male-biased populations are likely to experience slower population growth, which limits the long-term viability of corresponding cultural norms. Conversely, female-biased populations are likely to experience faster population growth. Cultural norms that promote female-biased sex ratios are as a consequence therefore also self-reinforcing. In this study, we explore the demographic consequences of a female-biased sex ratio for population growth and population age structure. We also discuss the technology and parental preferences that may give rise to such a scenario.
26.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) (Snart inte) en familj som andra 2019 In: Äldre i centrum. - 1653-3585. ; :1, s. 81-82 Review (pop. science, debate, etc.)
27.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) The causal effect of an additional sibling on completed fertility : An estimation of intergenerational fertility correlations by looking at siblings of twins 2015 In: Demographic Research. - 1435-9871. ; 32, s. 1409-1420 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Intergenerational transmission of fertility - a correlation between number of siblings and adult fertility - has been consistently demonstrated in developed countries. However, there is only limited knowledge of the causes of this correlation.Objective: This study estimates the effect of an exogenous increase of number of siblings on adult fertility for men and women using Swedish register data. The effect of an additional sibling is estimated from the birth of younger twin siblings by means of instrumental variable methods.Results: The study shows that there is no clear effect of an exogenous increase in the number of siblings on completed fertility. There is some evidence that an additional sibling is associated with lower fertility in adulthood.Conclusions: The results indicate that intergenerational transmission of fertility is due to factors shared between parents and children such as preferences or socioeconomic status, not directly related to the size of the family of upbringing. There is no effect on fertility in adulthood of having an additional sibling per se.
28.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) The relationship between life-course accumulated income and childbearing of Swedish men and women born 1940-70 2023 In: Population Studies. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0032-4728 .- 1477-4747. ; 77:2, s. 197-215 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This study uses income accumulated over ages 20–60 to examine whether richer or poorer individuals have more children. Income histories are calculated using yearly administrative register data from contemporary Sweden for cohorts born 1940–70. Differences by parity and income distribution are examined separately by sex. There is a strong positive gradient between accumulated disposable income (and to a lesser extent earnings) and fertility for men in all cohorts and a gradual transformation from a negative to a positive gradient for women. In particular, accumulated incomes are substantially lower for childless men and women than those with children. For men, fertility increases monotonically with increasing income, whereas for women much of the positive gradient results from low fertility among women with very low accumulated incomes in later cohorts. Most of the positive income–fertility gradient can be explained by the high incomes of men and women with two to four children.
29.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) The Swedish Kinship Universe: A Demographic Account of the Number of Children, Parents, Siblings, Grandchildren, Grandparents, Aunts/Uncles, Nieces/Nephews, and Cousins Using National Population Registers 2023 In: Demography. - 0070-3370 .- 1533-7790. ; 60:5, s. 1359-1385 Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract Given that surprisingly little is known about the demography of human kinship, we provide a demographic account of the kinship networks of individuals in Sweden in 2017 across sex and cohort between ages 0 and 102. We used administrative register data of the full population of Sweden to provide the first kinship enumeration for a complete population based on empirical data. We created ego-focused kinship networks of children, parents, siblings, grandchildren, grandparents, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, and cousins. We show the average number of kin of different types, the distribution of the number of kin, and changes in dispersion over time. A large share of all kin of an individual are horizontal kin, such as cousins. We observe the highest number of kin—on average, roughly 20—around age 35. We show differences between matrilineal and patrilineal kin and differences in the kinship structure arising from fertility with more than one childbearing partner, such as half-siblings. The results demonstrate substantial variability in kinship within a population. We discuss our findings in the context of other methods to estimate kinship.
30.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Understanding transmission of fertility across multiple generations - Socialization or socioeconomics? 2014 In: Research in Social Stratification and Mobility. - : Elsevier BV. - 0276-5624 .- 1878-5654. ; 35, s. 89-103 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract A number of studies have documented consistent patterns in intergenerational transmission of fertility in contemporary societies. However, why children replicate the family size of their parents has received significantly less attention. The goal of this study is to examine whether observed fertility associations across generations are due in part to an intergenerational transmission of socioeconomic status. Swedish registry data on childbearing histories, other demographic events, and socioeconomic traits are used to disentangle possible explanations of intergenerational fertility continuities. Data are collected for the Swedish cohorts born between 1970 and 1982 for whom parents' and grandparents' family size can be observed. The inclusion of data on grandparents gives insights into pathways for multigenerational associations, and allows for comparisons between maternal and paternal characteristics that are otherwise hard to separate. Results show that some of the observed intergenerational continuity in fertility can be explained by continuities in education and socioeconomic status, but that most fertility associations remain and are related to other sources, such as transmission of values and preferred family size.
31.	Kolk, Martin, 1986- (author) Vart fjärde par jämnårigt 2013 In: Välfärd. - Stockholm : SCB. - 1651-6710. ; :3, s. 18-18 Journal article (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract Det skiljer mindre än ett år i ålder i vart fjärde par som får sitt första barn tillsammans. I genomsnitt är mannen två år äldre än kvinnan.
32.	Kolk, Martin, 1986-, et al. (author) Överdödlighet och dödlighet i covid-19 i Sverige under 2020 2021 Reports (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract De tidigare årens utveckling med ökad medellivslängd i Sverige bröts under förra året. Det visar den här rapporten från IFFS, Institutet för framtidsstudier, som tagits fram på Folkhälsomyndighetens uppdrag.I rapporten presenteras statistik över dödligheten på nationell och regional nivå, och jämförs även med tidigare år. Syftet med rapporten är att genom sammanställd data kunna bedöma pandemins påverkan på överdödligheten i Sverige. Resultatet visar att den förväntade medellivslängden minskade med 0,69 år för män och 0,40 år för kvinnor under år 2020 jämfört med 2019. Det innebär att tidigare ökningar av medellivslängd bröts under 2020 och istället låg på samma nivåer som år 2017 för män och år 2018 för kvinnor.Som underlag för rapporten om dödlighet och överdödlighet i olika åldersgrupper har IFFS använt SCB:s statistik över samtliga dödsfall och Folkhälsomyndighetens statistik över dödsfall i covid-19.Rapporten har skrivits av forskare verksamma vid IFFS och Stockholms universitet som självständigt undersökt hur dödsmönstren utmärkt sig under 2020.
33.	Reini, Kaarina Susanna, et al. (author) Religion and mental health in young adulthood : a register-based study on differences by religious affiliation in sickness absence due to mental disorders in Finland 2024 In: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Religiosity and spirituality are known to be positively correlated with health. This is the first study to analyse the interrelation between religious denomination and sickness absence due to mental disorders using population register data with detailed ICD codes.Methods The follow-up study was based on the entire population born in Finland between 1984 and 1996 (N=794 476). Each person was observed from age 20 over the period from 2004 to 2018. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to analyse the association between religious denomination and first-time sickness allowance receipts for any cause and mental disorder. Mental disorders were categorised as severe mental illness (F20–F31), depression (F32–F33), anxiety (F40–F48) and any other mental disorder (all other F codes). Men and women were analysed separately.Results The differences in sickness absence due to mental disorder were substantial between religious affiliations. Compared with members of the Evangelical Lutheran state church, the relative hazard for mental disorders among non-affiliated women was 1.34 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.39), while that among women with other religions was 1.27 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.35), after adjusting for own and parental characteristics. The corresponding numbers for men were 1.45 (95% CI 1.39 to 1.50) and 1.42 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.54), respectively. The gradient was larger for severe mental illness and depression than for anxiety and other mental disorders. For any cause of sickness absence, there was no difference between Lutherans, non-affiliated individuals and those with other religions.Conclusions Epidemiologists and public health practitioners should further examine the association between mental disorders and church membership using administrative registers.
34.	Saarela, Jan, et al. (author) Divorce among exogamous couples : The role of language convergence 2023 In: Acta Sociologica. - : SAGE Publications. - 0001-6993 .- 1502-3869. ; 66:4, s. 402-420 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This is the first study to use longitudinal population register data to illustrate that marital stability may relate to the adoption of the spouse's language. The paper draws on theories of boundary shifting and boundary crossing to examine two main ancestral groups in Finland, Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers, between whom intermarriage is common. Administrative changes in how the question about language/ethnicity was registered between the censuses of 1975 and 1980 make it possible to distinguish between persons who are concordant or discordant on the main language used and ethnic affiliation. Using data on the entire married population, and adjusting for several individuals and couple characteristics, we estimate the couples' divorce risk as a function of language convergence with Cox regressions. Discordance in terms of adopting the Finnish language used by the partner is associated with a higher divorce risk, as compared with couples who are exogamous in terms of both language use and ethnic affiliation. Adopting the Swedish language, on the other hand, is associated with a slightly reduced divorce risk. Thus, these data provide some evidence that marital stability may relate to language convergence.
35.	Saarela, Jan, et al. (author) Kinship, heritage, and ethnic choice : ethnolinguistic registration across four generations in contemporary Finland 2024 In: European Sociological Review. - 0266-7215 .- 1468-2672. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We studied how individuals’ ethnolinguistic affiliation relates to the ethnolinguistic structure of kinship in contemporary Finland, a society in which Finnish-speaking and Swedish-speaking ethnolinguistic groups have coexisted for centuries and mixed marital unions are common. Using multigenerational data from the population register, we determined how the ethnolinguistic registration of children born in 1990–2015 relates to three generations of ancestors. We created a family tree that links children to their parents, four grandparents and eight great grandparents. Our intention was to both map the ethnolinguistic background of young people and predict a child’s affiliation based on their ancestry. The data revealed that ethnolinguistic affiliation is a more fluid and complex feature than expected when assessed only through child and parental characteristics. We found substantial diversity in ethnolinguistic background within the Swedish-speaking minority group, while most individuals in the Finnish-speaking majority group had a uniform background. We identified three types of bias in the ethnolinguistic affiliation of mixed-origin children: a matrilineal bias, a kinship majority bias and a Swedish ethnic minority bias. The analyses advanced our understanding of how the size of minority groups can shrink even when most couples in mixed unions favour minority group affiliation for their children.
36.	Shi, Jiaxin, et al. (author) How Does Mortality Contribute to Lifetime Pension Inequality? : Evidence From Five Decades of Swedish Taxation Data 2022 In: Demography. - : Duke University Press. - 0070-3370 .- 1533-7790. ; 59:5, s. 1843-1871 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract As with many social transfer schemes, pension systems around the world are often progressive: individuals with lower incomes receive a higher percentage of their income as a subsequent pension. On the other hand, those with lower earnings have higher mortality and thus accumulate fewer years of pension income. Both of these opposing factors influence the progressiveness of pension systems. Empirical efforts to disentangle the effects of mortality inequality on lifetime pension inequality have been scarce. Using Swedish taxation data linked with death registers for 1970–2018, we study how education and preretirement earnings relate to lifetime pensions from age 60 onward and how mortality inequalities contribute to overall inequalities in lifetime pensions. The results show that a progressive replacement structure and mortality differ ences contribute to the overall distribution of pension payments over the life course. Up to one quarter of lifetime pension inequality is attributable to the greater longevity of socially advantaged groups—particularly among men. Hence, mortality inequalities are an important determinant of the overall degree of between-group income transfers in a pension system, but they are not as important as inequalities in prior earnings.
37.	Shi, Jiaxin, et al. (author) The Inequality of Lifetime Pensions 2023 In: Sociological Science. - 2330-6696. ; 7, s. 667-693 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract At older ages, most people are supported by pension systems that provide payments based on prior contributions. An important, but neglected, aspect of inequality in how much people receive in pensions is the number of years they live to receive their pension. We examine inequality in lifetime-accumulated pensions and show the importance of mortality for understanding inequalities in pension payments, and contrast it to inequalities in working-age earnings and yearly pension payments among older adults. In contrast to most previous research on old-age inequality comparing different social groups, we focused on total-population-level inequality. Using Swedish register data covering the retired population born from 1918-1939, we found that lifetime pensions are much more unequal than pre-retirement earnings and yearly pensions. Our findings also show that mortality explains more than 50 percent of the inequality of lifetime pensions within cohorts, and plays an important role in explaining changes in inequality across cohorts (192 percent among men and 44 percent among women). Pension policies can affect lifetime pension inequality, but such effects are limited in magnitude unless they directly affect the number of years of receiving pensions.
38.	Tilley, Lucas, et al. (author) THE DEMOGRAPHY OF SWEDEN’S TRANSGENDER POPULATION — PATTERNS, CHANGES, AND SOCIODEMOGRAPHICS 2023 Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract Our study examines the prevalence of gender transitions in Sweden over time and documents the sociodemographic characteristics of people transitioning in different periods. We use national administrative data covering the transgender population from 1973–2020 and analyze two common events in a gender transition: the earliest diagnosis of gender incongruence and the change of legal gender. We have three main findings. First, the measured prevalence of both types of events is relatively low in all periods, although it has increased substantially since the early 2010s. Second, the recent increase in transition prevalence is most pronounced among people in early adulthood; in particular, young transgender men drive an increase in overall transition rates through 2018, followed by moderate declines in 2019 and 2020. Third, transgender men and women have substantially lower socioeconomic outcomes than cisgender men and women, regardless of the age at which they transition or the historical period. They are also considerably less likely to be in a legal union or reside with children. These findings highlight the continued economic and social vulnerability of the transgender population.
39.	Xia, Weiqian, 1991-, et al. (author) Socioeconomic Advantage or Community Attachment? A Register‐Based Study on the Difference in National Lutheran Church Affiliation Between Finnish and Swedish Speakers in Finland 2024 In: Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion. - 0021-8294 .- 1468-5906. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Secularization theory has been challenged by research showing religious persistence and upswing in contexts across the world. In Europe, particularly in highly secular and historically religiously homogeneous Nordic settings, there has been little research, and representative data for minority groups are rare. We offer a pioneering study using national register data to study religious changes over the past five decades in Finland, where the two native ethnolinguistic groups—Finnish and Swedish speakers—offer a unique study context. We use register data with yearly information on every individual's religious affiliation to compare the two groups, exploring the mechanisms behind any differentials. Swedish speakers are found to be consistently more affiliated with the National Lutheran Church than Finnish speakers. This finding contradicts the expectation of modernization theory because the Swedish-speaking population is, in some aspects, socioeconomically advantaged in Finnish society. The higher affiliation level of Swedish speakers can be partly explained by lower levels of internal migration, which is possibly driven by stronger community attachment. Our results suggest that community cohesion may help preserve the religious tradition of a minority group, even in the absence of socioeconomic disadvantages or threats from the majority.

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