1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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5. |
- Kumar, Saurabh, et al.
(author)
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Inspection frequency optimization model for degrading flowlines on an offshore platform
- 2008
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In: International Journal of Reliability, Quality and Safety Engineering (IJRQSE). - 0218-5393. ; 15:2, s. 167-180
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many offshore oil and gas installations in the North Sea are approaching the end of their designed lifetimes. Technological improvements and higher oil prices have developed favorable conditions for more oil recovery from these existing installations. However, in most cases, an extended oil production period does not justify investment in new installations. Therefore cost-effective maintenance of the existing platform infrastructure is becoming very important. In this paper, an inspection frequency optimization model has been developed which can be used effectively by the inspection and maintenance personnel in the industry to estimate the number of inspections/optimum preventive maintenance time required for a degrading component at any age or interval in its lifecycle at a minimum total maintenance cost. The model can help in planning inspections and maintenance intervals for different components of the platform infrastructure. The model has been validated by a case study performed on flowlines installed on the top side of an offshore oil and gas platform in the North Sea. Reliability analysis has been carried out to arrive at the best inspection frequency for the flowline segments under study
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6. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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7. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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8. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
-
In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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9. |
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10. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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11. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(author)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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12. |
- Kumar, Advitiya, et al.
(author)
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Emulsion templated cellulosic porous scaffolds of superior oleophilicity
- 2023
-
In: Cellulose. - : Springer Nature. - 0969-0239 .- 1572-882X. ; 30:14, s. 9047-9059
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Oil spills and related environmental concerns have been dealt using various approaches including hydrophobic absorbents made of synthetic polymers. Disposal and secondary contamination from such polymeric absorbent however are issues due to non-degradable nature of synthetic polymers. A cellulose based oleophilic porous scaffold for oil sorption is thus fabricated in this work via emulsion templating. Pre-treated wood pulp cellulose based high internal phase emulsion was developed through judicious choice of solvent, emulsifiers, nature and volume fraction of dispersed phase, and crosslinker for cellulose. The scaffold showed a highly interconnected porous structure resulting in an oil sorption capacity up to 8.8 g/g for automobile engine oil (volumetric swelling of 30 ml/ml), matching with some of the previously reported hydrophobically modified cellulosic absorbents. The scaffold showed no structural disintegration or decline in sorption capacity during cyclic sorption-desorption test up to 5 cycles. The oleophilic character was introduced in the scaffold due to high surface area and interconnected macropores acting as microchannels and reservoir for oil sorption without any interaction of the hydrophilic cellulose with the oil. The efficiency of porous scaffold of a natural polymer for oil sorption can further be enhanced via hydrophobic functionalization and other vast applications.
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13. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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14. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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15. |
- Castro, Felipe A, et al.
(author)
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Association of HLA-DRB1, interleukin-6 and cyclin D1 polymorphisms with cervical cancer in the Swedish population-A candidate gene approach.
- 2009
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 125:8, s. 1851-1858
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) infection is the major risk factor for cervical cancer (CxCa). The role of genetic susceptibility in the disease has been suggested, but the existing data lack consistency. We conducted a nested case-control study on 973 CxCa cases and 1,763 matched controls, from two Swedish population-based cohorts to examine the association of common genetic variants with CxCa risk. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles and 24 other polymorphisms in 14 genes were selected on the basis of reported association or mechanistic plausibility with an HPV infection or cervical cancer development. Genotyping was conducted using multiplex PCR and Luminex technology. A significant association of CxCa with various polymorphisms was observed: rs1800797 in the IL-6 gene (odds ratio [OR] = 0.88, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.79-0.99); rs1041981 in the LTA gene (OR = 0.87, 95% CI: 0.78-0.98), and rs9344 in the CCND1 gene (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.02-1.27), for those individuals carrying the rare allele. Additionally, the alleles 0401 and 1501 of the HLA class II DRB1 locus were associated with an increased risk (OR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.04-1.45 and OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.50, respectively), and allele 1301 was associated with decreased risk (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.47-0.73). The effects of CCND1 and the HLA*DRB1 alleles were independent of the effect of smoking. We did not find any association of risk with polymorphisms in genes related to the innate immune system. In conclusion, our study provides evidence for genetic susceptibility to CxCa due to variations in genes involved in the immune system and in cell cycle. (c) 2009 UICC.
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16. |
- Chen, Guanying, et al.
(author)
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Ultrasmall Monodisperse NaYF4:Yb3+/Tm3+ Nanocrystals with Enhanced Near-Infrared to Near-Infrared Upconversion Photoluminescence
- 2010
-
In: ACS NANO. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1936-0851 .- 1936-086X. ; 4:6, s. 3163-3168
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Photoluminescent NaYF4:Yb3+/Tm3+ nanocrystals are ideally suited for in vitro and in vivo photoluminescence (PL) bioimaging due to their virtue of near-infrared to near-infrared (NIR-to-NIR) upconversion (UC); they display PL with a peak at similar to 800 nm if excited at similar to 980 nm. Here, we report the synthesis of monodisperse NaYF4:Yb3+/Tm3+ nanocrystals of ultrasmall size (7-10 nm) with high UC efficiency. The intensity of their NIR UC emission was demonstrated to increase by up to 43 times along with an increase in the relative content of Yb3+ ions from 20 to 100%, with a corresponding decrease in the Y3+ content from 80 to 0%. The achieved ultrasmall NaYbF4:2% Tm3+ nanocrystals manifest NIR PL emission, which is 3.6 times more intense than that from 25-30 nm sized NaYF4:20% Yb3+/2% Tm3+ nanocrystals, previously synthesized and used for in vitro and in vivo bioimaging. An optimization of both size and UC PL efficiency of NIR-to-NIR nanocrystals provides us with highly efficient optical imaging probes for bioapplications.
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17. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(author)
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Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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18. |
- Dandotiya, Rajiv, et al.
(author)
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Optimal maintenance decision for line reparable units (LRU’s) for an aircraft system — A conceptual approach
- 2008
-
In: Quarterly Journal of the Operational Research Society of India (OPSEARCH). - 0030-3887 .- 0975-0320. ; 45:3, s. 291-302
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Maintenance decisions concerning repair of the Line Replaceable Unit (LRU) of an aircraft fleet need to be considered carefully while deciding the phasing out of the fleet. This is important for achieving higher degree of cost effectiveness and fleet availability at desired level. Discard rate and phasing out period for an aircraft fleet are the critical parameters for determining optimum time to stop the maintenance of LRU. The economic value of remaining useful life of an aircraft fleet should be taken into consideration by salvaging the LRU at the end of the phasing out. The paper suggests a methodology to arrive the time that will minimize the total life cycle cost and provide us economic basis to withdraw the maintenance resources. A mathematical model has been developed for the discard rate of aircrafts based on failure rate, mission life and remaining useful life of the aircrafts in the fleet. This will assist in fulfilling the managing demand of LRU while phasing out of the aircraft fleet.
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19. |
- Davies, John R., et al.
(author)
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An inherited variant in the gene coding for vitamin D-binding protein and survival from cutaneous melanoma: a BioGenoMEL study
- 2014
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In: Pigment Cell & Melanoma Research. - : Wiley. - 1755-148X .- 1755-1471. ; 27:2, s. 234-243
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- An association between low serum vitamin D levels and poorer melanoma survival has been reported. We have studied inheritance of a polymorphism of the GC gene, rs2282679, coding for the vitamin D-binding protein, which is associated with lower serum levels of vitamin D, in a meta-analysis of 3137 melanoma patients. The aim was to investigate evidence for a causal relationship between vitamin D and outcome (Mendelian randomization). The variant was not associated with reduced overall survival (OS) in the UK cohort, per-allele hazard ratio (HR) for death 1.23 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93, 1.64). In the smaller cohorts, HR in OS analysis was 1.07 (95% CI 0.88, 1.3) and for all cohorts combined, HR for OS was 1.09 (95% CI 0.93, 1.29). There was evidence of increased melanoma-specific deaths in the seven cohorts for which these data were available. The lack of unequivocal findings despite the large sample size illustrates the difficulties of implementing Mendelian randomization.
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20. |
- Davies, John R, et al.
(author)
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Inherited variation in the PARP1 gene and survival from melanoma
- 2014
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In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 135:7, s. 1625-1633
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the association of an inherited variant located upstream of the poly(adenosine diphosphate-ribose) polymerase 1 (PARP1) gene (rs2249844), with survival in 11 BioGenoMEL melanoma cohorts. The gene encodes a protein involved in a number of cellular processes including single-strand DNA repair. Survival analysis was conducted for each cohort using proportional hazards regression adjusting for factors known to be associated with survival. Survival was measured as overall survival (OS) and, where available, melanoma-specific survival (MSS). Results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Evidence for a role of the PARP1 protein in melanoma ulceration and survival was investigated by testing gene expression levels taken from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tumors. A significant association was seen for inheritance of the rarer variant of PARP1, rs2249844 with OS (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16 per allele, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.28, p=0.005, eleven cohorts) and MSS (HR=1.20 per allele, 95% CI 1.01-1.39, p=0.03, eight cohorts). We report bioinformatic data supportive of a functional effect for rs2249844. Higher levels of PARP1 gene expression in tumors were shown to be associated with tumor ulceration and poorer OS. What's new? Although staging systems predict outcome fairly well for melanoma, survival still varies among individual patients. In this meta-analysis, the authors found that inheritance of a rare genetic variant of PARP1 was associated with improved survival of melanoma patients. Increased expression of PARP1 has been associated with poorer outcome, and depletion of PARP1 may reduce both melanoma growth and angiogenesis. The identification of this and other germline variants that affect survival may help to identify key biological pathways active in host/tumor interactions, which may lead to the discovery of new therapeutic targets for treating advanced melanoma. Epidemiology
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21. |
- de Verdier, Petra J., et al.
(author)
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Genotypes, haplotypes and diplotypes of three XPC polymorphisms in urinary-bladder cancer patients
- 2010
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In: Mutation Research - Fundamental and Molecular Mechanisms of Mutagenesis. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-2871 .- 0027-5107. ; 694:1-2, s. 39-44
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose The XPC gene is involved in DNA damage recognition in the nucleotide excision repair pathway (NER) We investigated the additive effects of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in bladder-cancer patients and population controls for three XPC polymorphisms A499V (C>T) K939Q (A>C) and poly AT (PAT -/+) Experimental Design 311 bladder-cancer patients from a population-based cohort and 337 population controls were genotyped using the PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) technique Results We found complete linkage between the K939Q (A>C) and PAT (-/+) polymorphisms and therefore only the K939Q (A>C) polymorphism was included in analyses The over all estimated odds ratio was 1 7 (95% CI 1 3-2 4) for A499V (C>T) and 1 4 (95% CI 1 0-2 0) for K939Q (A>C) The associated odds ratio Increase with the variant allele homozygotes was six-fold for the A499V (C>T) and three-fold for the K939Q (A>C) polymorphism (OR=5 7 95% CI 3 4-9 5 and OR=2 6 95% CI 1 3-5 6 respectively) The variant allele haplotype of the two polymorphisms (T499C939) was associated with a nearly four fold increased odds ratio compared to the common allele haplotype (C(499)A(939)) (OR=3 6 95% Cl 1 9-6 9) Combined genotype analysis showed an Increased disease association with increasing number of variant alleles (p<0 0001) with a dominant effect of the A499V polymorphism In addition we observed association of the disease with increasing number of variant alleles for the A499V polymorphism and an early age at diagnosis (p=0 004) Conclusions Our results suggest an association between the XPC genotypes of the A499V K939Q and PAT polymorphisms and urinary-bladder cancer We propose a poly-allelic effect of these polymorphisms where the cumulative effect on disease becomes higher than the individual allelic effects (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved
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22. |
- Denisova, Evgeniya, et al.
(author)
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Frequent DPH3 promoter mutations in skin cancers.
- 2015
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In: Oncotarget. - : Impact Journals, LLC. - 1949-2553. ; 6:34, s. 35922-35930
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent reports suggested frequent occurrence of cancer associated somatic mutations within regulatory elements of the genome. Based on initial exome sequencing of 21 melanomas, we report frequent somatic mutations in skin cancers in a bidirectional promoter of diphthamide biosynthesis 3 (DPH3) and oxidoreductase NAD-binding domain containing 1 (OXNAD1) genes. The UV-signature mutations occurred at sites adjacent and within a binding motif for E-twenty six/ternary complex factors (Ets/TCF), at -8 and -9 bp from DPH3 transcription start site. Follow up screening of 586 different skin lesions showed that the DPH3 promoter mutations were present in melanocytic nevi (2/114; 2%), melanoma (30/304; 10%), basal cell carcinoma of skin (BCC; 57/137; 42%) and squamous cell carcinoma of skin (SCC; 12/31; 39%). Reporter assays carried out in one melanoma cell line for DPH3 and OXNAD1 orientations showed statistically significant increased promoter activity due to -8/-9CC > TT tandem mutations; although, no effect of the mutations on DPH3 and OXNAD1 transcription in tumors was observed. The results from this study show occurrence of frequent somatic non-coding mutations adjacent to a pre-existing binding site for Ets transcription factors within the directional promoter of DPH3 and OXNAD1 genes in three major skin cancers. The detected mutations displayed typical UV signature; however, the functionality of the mutations remains to be determined.
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23. |
- Engström, Karin, et al.
(author)
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Genetic variation in arsenic (+3 oxidation state) methyltransferase (AS3MT), arsenic metabolism and risk of basal cell carcinoma in a European population.
- 2015
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In: Environmental and Molecular Mutagenesis. - : Wiley. - 1098-2280 .- 0893-6692. ; 56:1, s. 60-69
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Exposure to inorganic arsenic increases the risk of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Arsenic metabolism is a susceptibility factor for arsenic toxicity, and specific haplotypes in arsenic (+3 oxidation state) methyltransferase (AS3MT) have been associated with increased urinary fractions of the most toxic arsenic metabolite, methylarsonic acid (MMA). The aim of this study is to elucidate the association of AS3MT haplotypes with arsenic metabolism and the risk of BCC. Four AS3MT polymorphisms were genotyped in BCC cases (N = 529) and controls (N = 533) from Eastern Europe with low to moderate arsenic exposure (lifetime average drinking water concentration: 1.3 µg/L, range 0.01-167 µg/L). Urinary metabolites [inorganic arsenic (iAs), MMA, dimethylarsinic acid (DMA)] were analyzed by HPLC-ICPMS. Five AS3MT haplotypes (based on rs3740400 A/C, rs3740393 G/C, rs11191439 T/C and rs1046778 T/C) had frequencies >5%. Individuals with the CCTC haplotype had lower %iAs (P = 0.032) and %MMA (P = 0.020) in urine, and higher %DMA (P = 0.033); individuals with the CGCT haplotype had higher %MMA (P < 0.001) and lower %DMA (P < 0.001). All haplotypes showed increased risk of BCC with increasing arsenic exposure through drinking water (ORs 1.1-1.4, P values from <0.001 to 0.082), except for the CCTC haplotype (OR 1.0, CI 0.9-1.2, P value 0.85). The results suggest that carriage of AS3MT haplotypes associated with less-efficient arsenic methylation, or lack of AS3MT haplotypes associated with a more-efficient arsenic methylation, results in higher risk of arsenic-related BCC. The fact that AS3MT haplotype status modified arsenic metabolism, and in turn the arsenic-related BCC risk, supports a causal relationship between low-level arsenic exposure and BCC. Environ. Mol. Mutagen., 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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24. |
- Figueroa, Jonine D., et al.
(author)
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Identification of a novel susceptibility locus at 13q34 and refinement of the 20p12.2 region as a multi-signal locus associated with bladder cancer risk in individuals of European ancestry
- 2016
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In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press. - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 25:6, s. 1203-1214
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Candidate gene and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 15 independent genomic regions associated with bladder cancer risk. In search for additional susceptibility variants, we followed up on four promising single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that had not achieved genome-wide significance in 6911 cases and 11 814 controls (rs6104690, rs4510656, rs5003154 and rs4907479, P < 1 × 10−6), using additional data from existing GWAS datasets and targeted genotyping for studies that did not have GWAS data. In a combined analysis, which included data on up to 15 058 cases and 286 270 controls, two SNPs achieved genome-wide statistical significance: rs6104690 in a gene desert at 20p12.2 (P = 2.19 × 10−11) and rs4907479 within the MCF2L gene at 13q34 (P = 3.3 × 10−10). Imputation and fine-mapping analyses were performed in these two regions for a subset of 5551 bladder cancer cases and 10 242 controls. Analyses at the 13q34 region suggest a single signal marked by rs4907479. In contrast, we detected two signals in the 20p12.2 region—the first signal is marked by rs6104690, and the second signal is marked by two moderately correlated SNPs (r2 = 0.53), rs6108803 and the previously reported rs62185668. The second 20p12.2 signal is more strongly associated with the risk of muscle-invasive (T2-T4 stage) compared with non-muscle-invasive (Ta, T1 stage) bladder cancer (case–case P ≤ 0.02 for both rs62185668 and rs6108803). Functional analyses are needed to explore the biological mechanisms underlying these novel genetic associations with risk for bladder cancer.
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25. |
- Gomes Hastenreiter, Lara Lopes, et al.
(author)
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Synthesis of Lactic Acid-Based Thermosetting Resins and Their Ageing and Biodegradability
- 2020
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In: Polymers. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4360. ; :12, s. 1-17
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present work is focused on the synthesis of bio-based thermoset polymers and their thermo–oxidative ageing and biodegradability. Toward this aim, bio-based thermoset resins with different chemical architectures were synthesized from lactic acid by direct condensation with ethylene glycol, glycerol and pentaerythritol. The resulting branched molecules with chain lengths (n) of three were then end-functionalized with methacrylic anhydride. The chemical structures of the synthesized lactic acid derivatives were confirmed by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-NMR) and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT–IR) before curing. To evaluate the effects of structure on their properties, the samples were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and the tensile testing. The samples went through thermo-oxidative ageing and biodegradation; and their effects were investigated. FT-IR and 1H-NMR results showed that three different bio-based resins were synthesized using polycondensation and end-functionalization. Lactic acid derivatives showed great potential to be used as matrixes in polymer composites. The glass transition temperature of the cured resins ranged between 44 and 52 °C. Pentaerythritol/lactic acid cured resin had the highest tensile modulus and it was the most thermally stable among all three resins. Degradative processes during ageing of the samples lead to the changes in chemical structures and the variations in Young’s modulus. Microscopic images showed the macro-scale surface degradation on a soil burial test.
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26. |
- Heidenreich, Barbara, et al.
(author)
-
Telomerase reverse transcriptase promoter mutations in primary cutaneous melanoma.
- 2014
-
In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 5:Feb 26
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We previously reported a disease segregating causal germline mutation in a melanoma family and recurrent somatic mutations in metastasized tumours from unrelated patients in the core promoter region of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene. Here we show that the TERT promoter mutations, besides causing an increased gene expression, associate with increased patient age, increased Breslow thickness and tumour ulceration in 287 primary melanomas. The mutations are more frequent at both intermittently and chronically sun-exposed sites than non-exposed sites and tend to co-occur with BRAF and CDKN2A alterations. The association with parameters generally connected with poor outcome, coupled with high recurrence and mechanistic relevance, raises the possibility of the eventual use of TERT promoter mutations in the disease management.
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27. |
- Heidenreich, Barbara, et al.
(author)
-
TERT promoter mutations and telomere length in adult malignant gliomas and recurrences.
- 2015
-
In: Oncotarget. - 1949-2553. ; 6:12, s. 10617-10633
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this report on 303 gliomas we show the highest frequency of TERT promoter mutations in gliobastomas (80%) followed by oligodendrogliomas (70%) and astrocytomas (39%). We observed positive association between TERT promoter and IDH mutations in oligodendroglial tumors (OR = 26.3; 95% CI 2.5-250.2) and inverse association in primary glioblastomas (OR = 0.13; 95% CI 0.03-0.58). Tumors with TERT promoter mutations compared to those without showed increased TERT transcription; we also showed difference in the transcription levels due to the two main mutations. Tumors with TERT promoter mutations had shorter telomeres than those without. The patients with only TERT promoter mutations showed worst survival (median survival 14.6 months) and patients with both IDH and TERT promoter mutations showed best survival (246.5 months). In patients with astrocytoma, the TERT promoter mutations only associated with poor survival (P < 0.0001); IDH mutations and 1p/19q deletions associated with increased survival (P = 0.0004). TERT promoter mutations in low grade gliomas associated with reduced progression free survival (HR 10.2; 95% CI 1.9 - 55.9). While our data affirm the role of TERT promoter mutations in glial tumors, effects on transcription and telomere length emphasise the importance of telomere biology in disease genesis and outcome.
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28. |
- Heidenreich, Barbara, et al.
(author)
-
TERT promoter mutations in cancer development.
- 2014
-
In: Current Opinion in Genetics & Development. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0380 .- 0959-437X. ; 24:Dec 20, s. 30-37
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Human telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) encodes a rate-limiting catalytic subunit of telomerase that maintains genomic integrity. TERT expression is mostly repressed in somatic cells with exception of proliferative cells in self-renewing tissues and cancer. Immortality associated with cancer cells has been attributed to telomerase over-expression. The precise mechanism behind the TERT activation in cancers has mostly remained unknown. The newly described germline and recurrent somatic mutations in melanoma and other cancers in the TERT promoter that create de novo E-twenty six/ternary complex factors (Ets/TCF) binding sites, provide an insight into the possible cause of tumor-specific increased TERT expression. In this review we discuss the discovery and possible implications of the TERT promoter mutations in melanoma and other cancers.
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29. |
- Hemminki, Kari, et al.
(author)
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Familial bladder cancer and the related genes.
- 2011
-
In: Current Opinion in Urology. - 0963-0643. ; 21, s. 386-392
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Family history of bladder cancer is a known risk factor for bladder cancer but new data have emerged on the influence of a family history of other tumours than bladder cancer. Recent data have shown that family history influences survival of bladder cancer. Gene identification has been successful particularly on low-risk genes influencing susceptibility and prognosis. RECENT FINDINGS: Familial clustering of bladder cancer has been found with cancers of the stomach, larynx, kidney, endometrium and the bone marrow (leukaemia). Shared smoking habits are an explanation to these findings and between spouses these appear to be the only explanation to the clustering of cancers with bladder cancer. Family members also share prognosis of bladder cancer, either good or poor survival. Among the low-penetrant genes, the variants within the genes encoding metabolic enzymes have been consistently associated with susceptibility to bladder cancer and the evidence is compelling for NAT2 slow acetylator and GSTM1 null genotypes. SUMMARY: Smoking is the only identifiable environmental factor explaining familial clustering of bladder cancers and other cancers. Genetic factors are likely to contribute to many of the described associations but the identified genes are probably an introduction to the genetics of bladder cancer.
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30. |
- Horn, Susanne, et al.
(author)
-
TERT Promoter Mutations in Familial and Sporadic Melanoma
- 2013
-
In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 1095-9203 .- 0036-8075. ; 339:6122, s. 959-961
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cutaneous melanoma occurs in both familial and sporadic forms. We investigated a melanoma-prone family through linkage analysis and high-throughput sequencing and identified a disease-segregating germline mutation in the promoter of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene, which encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase. The mutation creates a new binding motif for Ets transcription factors and ternary complex factors (TCFs) near the transcription start and, in reporter gene assays, caused up to twofold increase in transcription. We then screened the TERT promoter in sporadic melanoma and observed recurrent ultraviolet signature somatic mutations in 125 of 168 (74%) of human cell lines derived from metastatic melanomas, 45 of 53 corresponding metastatic tumor tissues (85%), and 25 of 77 (33%) primary melanomas. The majority of those mutations occurred at two positions in the TERT promoter and also generated binding motifs for Ets/TCF transcription factors.
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31. |
- Hosen, Ismail, et al.
(author)
-
Mutations in TERT promoter and FGFR3 and telomere length in bladder cancer
- 2015
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 137:7, s. 1621-1629
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Mutations in the promoter of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) and fibroblast growth factor receptor 3 (FGFR3) genes constitute the most recurrent somatic alterations in urothelial carcinoma of bladder. In this study, we screened DNA from 327 urothelial bladder carcinomas from well-documented patients, with different stages and grades and known TERT promoter mutational status, for FGFR3 alterations and measured relative telomere length (RTL). Although, the frequency of the TERT promoter mutations was higher than those in FGFR3; however, the alterations at the two loci occurred together more frequently than per chance [Odds ratio (OR)=4.93, 95% CI=2.72-8.92, p<0.0001]. While tumors with TERT promoter and FGFR3 mutations had shorter RTL than those without mutations (p<0.0001), the TERT promoter mutations in conjunction with the common allele of the rs2853669 polymorphism defined sub-group of patients with an observed decreased overall survival (OR=2.15, 95% CI=1.00-4.61) and increased recurrence in patients with TaG1+TaG2 disease categories (OR=3.68, 95%CI=1.12-12.05). The finding of shorter telomeres in tumors with TERT promoter and/or FGFR3 mutations than without mutations implies mechanistic relevance of telomere biology in cancer progression. The observed association with recurrence and survival shows that the TERT promoter mutations can potentially be used as markers to refine selection of patients for different treatments. The overwhelming frequency of the TERT promoter mutations also represents a case for development of an eventual therapeutic target. What's New? The identification of recurrent somatic mutations in bladder cancer opens the door to the development of new prognostic and therapeutic tools. Here, the TERT promoter mutations in conjunction with a common variant, rs2853669, define a subset of patients with increased risk of recurrence and poor survival. Mutations in FGFR3, in contrast, were not independently associated with either disease recurrence or overall survival. Tumors with mutations in FGFR3 or the TERT promoter carried shorter telomeres than those without mutations. The findings highlight the prognostic potential of TERT mutations and reveal a possible etiological role for telomere biology in bladder cancer.
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32. |
- Hosen, Ismail, et al.
(author)
-
TERT promoter mutations in clear cell renal cell carcinoma
- 2015
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 136:10, s. 2448-2452
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We screened promoter region of the telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) for activating somatic mutations in 188 tumors from patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). Twelve tumors (6.4%) carried a mutation within the core promoter region of the gene. The mutations were less frequent in high grade tumors compared to low grade tumors [odds ratio (OR)=0.15, 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.03-0.72, p=0.02]. Multivariate analysis for cause specific survival showed statistically significant poor outcome in patients with TERT promoter mutations [hazard ratio (HR)=2.90, 95% CI=1.13-7.39, p=0.03]. A common polymorphism (rs2853669) within the locus seemed to act as a modifier of the effect of the mutations on patient survival as the noncarriers of the variant allele with the TERT promoter mutations showed worst survival (HR=3.34, 95% CI=1.24-8.98, p=0.02). We also measured relative telomere length (RTL) in tumors and difference between tumors with and without the TERT promoter mutations was not statistically significant. Similarly, no difference in patient survival based on RTL in tumors was observed. Our study showed a relatively low frequency of TERT promoter mutations in ccRCC. Nevertheless, patients with the mutations, particularly in the absence of the rs2853669 variant showed the worst disease-specific survival. Thus, it is possible that the TERT promoter mutations define a small subset of tumors with an aggressive behavior. What's new? The human telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) gene encodes the catalytic subunit of telomerase, a ribonucleoprotein complex that maintains genomic integrity. Activating somatic mutations in the promoter region of the TERT gene have been reported in many cancers. Here, the authors describe new TERT promoter mutations in clear cell renal cell carcinoma. Although present only in a proportion of the tumors, the TERT promoter mutations were independently associated with poor patient survival. The effect was enhanced by a common polymorphism within the core TERT promoter. The TERT promoter mutations may thus define a small subset of tumors with an aggressive behavior.
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33. |
- Kalita, Naba Kumar, et al.
(author)
-
Faster biodegradable and chemically recyclable polycaprolactone with embedded enzymes: Revealing new insights into degradation kinetics
- 2024
-
In: Chemical Engineering Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1385-8947 .- 1873-3212. ; 496
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Embedding immobilized lipase (IL) enzymes into polycaprolactone (PCL) matrix was demonstrated as a promising route to faster biodegradable and chemically recyclable PCL products. Furthermore, the materials could be thermally processed by extrusion and 3D printed by fused filament fabrication technique. The embedded-enzymes were shown to effectively accelerate the degradation of PCL under simulated industrial composting conditions and in aqueous solution in combination with external enzymes. To reveal deeper insights into the underlying mechanisms, the biodegradation kinetic parameters governing organic carbon (OC) mineralization were calculated. Furthermore, the concept of biodegradation half-life (B1/2) was introduced and correlated with the organic carbon (OC) mineralization rate of enzyme-embedded PCL films and filaments, especially under thermophilic composting conditions. This sheds light on how the incorporation of immobilized enzymes into PCL facilitates the degradation process. Furthermore, the feasibility of enzyme-catalyzed chemical recycling under mild conditions followed by enzyme-catalyzed repolymerization was demonstrated. The applied material design principle holds promise for addressing the pressing challenges associated with plastic waste, when moving forward towards a more sustainable and environmentally conscious future.
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34. |
- Kiemeney, Lambertus A, et al.
(author)
-
A sequence variant at 4p16.3 confers susceptibility to urinary bladder cancer.
- 2010
-
In: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 42:5, s. 415-9
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Previously, we reported germline DNA variants associated with risk of urinary bladder cancer (UBC) in Dutch and Icelandic subjects. Here we expanded the Icelandic sample set and tested the top 20 markers from the combined analysis in several European case-control sample sets, with a total of 4,739 cases and 45,549 controls. The T allele of rs798766 on 4p16.3 was found to associate with UBC (odds ratio = 1.24, P = 9.9 x 10(-12)). rs798766 is located in an intron of TACC3, 70 kb from FGFR3, which often harbors activating somatic mutations in low-grade, noninvasive UBC. Notably, rs798766[T] shows stronger association with low-grade and low-stage UBC than with more aggressive forms of the disease and is associated with higher risk of recurrence in low-grade stage Ta tumors. The frequency of rs798766[T] is higher in Ta tumors that carry an activating mutation in FGFR3 than in Ta tumors with wild-type FGFR3. Our results show a link between germline variants, somatic mutations of FGFR3 and risk of UBC.
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35. |
- Kumar, Rajiv, et al.
(author)
-
Effect of chromium and aluminum addition on anisotropic and microstructural characteristics of ball milled nanocrystalline iron
- 2016
-
In: Journal of Alloys and Compounds. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-8388 .- 1873-4669. ; 671, s. 164-169
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Prior studies on synthesis of nanocrystalline elements have discussed the effect of ball milling on lattice parameter, crystallite size, and micro-strain. For elemental milled powders, the anisotropic peak broadening does not change with increasing milling time. However, the effect of alloying addition on the anisotropic behavior of ball milled nanocrystalline powders remains an unexplored area. Here we report the effect of chromium and aluminum addition on the anisotropic behavior of iron in nanocrystalline Fe–20Cr–5Al (wt%) alloy powders synthesized by ball milling. The experimental results show that the anisotropic behavior of iron changes towards isotropic with milling. This change was also correlated to the theoretically calculated anisotropic factor from the change in elastic constant of iron due to milling. Addition of alloying elements exhibited a monotonic rise in the lattice parameter with crystallite size, which was attributed to the excess grain boundary interfacial energy and excess free volume at grain boundaries. Transmission electron microscopy image confirmed the crystallite size and nature of dislocation obtained using modified Williamson-Hall method.
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36. |
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37. |
- Kyu, Hmwe H, et al.
(author)
-
Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
- 2016
-
In: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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38. |
- Leitao, Jordana, et al.
(author)
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Revising the WHO verbal autopsy instrument to facilitate routine cause-of-death monitoring
- 2013
-
In: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 6, s. 21518-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a systematic approach for determining causes of death (CoD) in populations without routine medical certification. It has mainly been used in research contexts and involved relatively lengthy interviews. Our objective here is to describe the process used to shorten, simplify, and standardise the VA process to make it feasible for application on a larger scale such as in routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems.METHODS: A literature review of existing VA instruments was undertaken. The World Health Organization (WHO) then facilitated an international consultation process to review experiences with existing VA instruments, including those from WHO, the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and their Health in Developing Countries (INDEPTH) Network, InterVA, and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC). In an expert meeting, consideration was given to formulating a workable VA CoD list [with mapping to the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) CoD] and to the viability and utility of existing VA interview questions, with a view to undertaking systematic simplification.FINDINGS: A revised VA CoD list was compiled enabling mapping of all ICD-10 CoD onto 62 VA cause categories, chosen on the grounds of public health significance as well as potential for ascertainment from VA. A set of 221 indicators for inclusion in the revised VA instrument was developed on the basis of accumulated experience, with appropriate skip patterns for various population sub-groups. The duration of a VA interview was reduced by about 40% with this new approach.CONCLUSIONS: The revised VA instrument resulting from this consultation process is presented here as a means of making it available for widespread use and evaluation. It is envisaged that this will be used in conjunction with automated models for assigning CoD from VA data, rather than involving physicians.
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39. |
- Li, Yaozong, et al.
(author)
-
Atomistic and Thermodynamic Analysis of N6-Methyladenosine (m6A) Recognition by the Reader Domain of YTHDC1
- 2021
-
In: Journal of Chemical Theory and Computation. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1549-9618 .- 1549-9626. ; 17:2, s. 1240-1249
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- N6-Methyladenosine (m6A) is the most frequent modification in eukaryotic messenger RNA (mRNA) and its cellular processing and functions are regulated by the reader proteins YTHDCs and YTHDFs. However, the mechanism of m6A recognition by the reader proteins is still elusive. Here, we investigate this recognition process by combining atomistic simulations, site-directed mutagenesis, and biophysical experiments using YTHDC1 as a model. We find that the N6 methyl group of m6A contributes to the binding through its specific interactions with an aromatic cage (formed by Trp377 and Trp428) and also by favoring the association-prone conformation of m6A-containing RNA in solution. The m6A binding site dynamically equilibrates between multiple metastable conformations with four residues being involved in the regulation of m6A binding (Trp428, Met438, Ser378, and Thr379). Trp428 switches between two conformational states to build and dismantle the aromatic cage. Interestingly, mutating Met438 and Ser378 to alanine does not alter m6A binding to the protein but significantly redistributes the binding enthalpy and entropy terms, i.e., enthalpy–entropy compensation. Such compensation is reasoned by different entropy–enthalpy transduction associated with both conformational changes of the wild-type and mutant proteins and the redistribution of water molecules. In contrast, the point mutant Thr379Val significantly changes the thermal stability and binding capability of YTHDC1 to its natural ligand. Additionally, thermodynamic analysis and free energy calculations shed light on the role of a structural water molecule that synergistically binds to YTHDC1 with m6A and acts as the hub of a hydrogen-bond network. Taken together, the experimental data and simulation results may accelerate the discovery of chemical probes, m6A-editing tools, and drug candidates against reader proteins.
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40. |
- Li, Yaozong, et al.
(author)
-
Structure-based design of ligands of the m6A-RNA reader YTHDC1
- 2022
-
In: European Journal of Medicinal Chemistry Reports. - : Elsevier. - 2772-4174. ; 5
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report new chemical entities for disrupting the interactions between N6-methyladenosine (m6A) mRNA and its reader YT521-B homology-domain-containing protein 1 (YTHDC1). High-throughput docking was used to screen commercially available databases of small molecules, and molecular dynamics simulations were employed to evaluate the binding stability of m6A nucleotide analogues. The poses of 25 fragment-like new binders were confirmed by X-ray crystallography. The structure-based merging of two weak fragments resulted in a ligand-efficient binder (compound 6) which shows an equilibrium dissociation constant of 1.7 μM in isothermal titration calorimetry measurements and a ligand efficiency value of 0.66 kcal mol−1 nHA−1.
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41. |
- Maccioni, Livia, et al.
(author)
-
Variants at chromosome 20 (ASIP locus) and melanoma risk
- 2013
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136. ; 132:1, s. 42-54
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Agouti signaling protein (ASIP) locus on chromosome 20q11 is implicated, as shown by genome-wide association studies, in phenotype variation and melanoma risk. We genotyped 837 melanoma cases and 1,154 controls for 21 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) informative for 495 polymorphisms at the locus. Our data showed an increased risk of melanoma (odds ratio [OR] 1.27, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.03-1.57) in carriers of the rs4911414 variant, located 120 kb upstream of ASIP. The main effect of rs4911414, as reported previously, was in tandem with a 10 kb adjacent polymorphism rs1015362; two constituted risk-associated haplotype/diplotype. Except for rs1015363, none of the 12 tagging SNPs, genotyped to cover 239.9 kb region with polymorphisms linked to rs4911414 and rs1015362, were associated with melanoma. Our data confirmed a previous association of melanoma risk (OR 1.82, 95% CI 1.37-2.41) with rs4911442, located in intron 5 of the nuclear receptor coactivator 6 (NCOA6) gene. The rs910871, one of the six variants, genotyped to cover NCOA6, showed an association with melanoma risk (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.04-1.70). Both, rs4911442 and rs910871 were in moderate linkage with a, previously reported, risk-associated rs910873 polymorphism. A haplotype from the variants within NCOA6 showed an association with risk of melanoma (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.17-1.88). Interaction between risk-associated polymorphisms and previously genotyped melanocortin receptor 1 (MC1R) variants, in our study, was not statistically significant. Nevertheless, the carriers of the variant alleles over the background of MC1R variants were at a higher risk than the carriers not enriched for MC1R variants. Our data confirmed the association of different variants at chromosome 20q11 with melanoma risk.
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42. |
- Maccioni, Livia, et al.
(author)
-
Variants at the 9p21 locus and melanoma risk
- 2013
-
In: BMC Cancer. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2407. ; 13
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The influence of variants at the 9p21 locus on melanoma risk has been reported through investigation of CDKN2A variants through candidate gene approach as well as by genome wide association studies (GWAS). Methods: In the present study we genotyped, 25 SNPs that tag 273 variants on chromosome 9p21 in 837 melanoma cases and 1154 controls from Spain. Ten SNPs were selected based on previous associations, reported in GWAS, with either melanocytic nevi or melanoma risk or both. The other 15 SNPs were selected to fine map the CDKN2A gene region. Results: All the 10 variants selected from the GWAS showed statistically significant association with melanoma risk. Statistically significant association with melanoma risk was also observed for the carriers of the variant T-allele of rs3088440 (540 C>T) at the 3' UTR of CDKN2A gene with an OR 1.52 (95% CI 1.14-2.04). Interaction analysis between risk associated polymorphisms and previously genotyped MC1R variants, in the present study, did not show any statistically significant association. Statistical significant association was observed for the interaction between phototypes and the rs10811629 (located in intron 5 of MTAP). The strongest association was observed between the homozygous carrier of the A-allele and phototype II with an OR of 15.93 (95% CI 5.34-47.54). Conclusions: Our data confirmed the association of different variants at chromosome 9p21 with melanoma risk and we also found an association of a variant with skin phototypes.
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43. |
- Migliorini, Gabriele, et al.
(author)
-
Variation at 10p12.2 and 10p14 influences risk of childhood B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia and phenotype
- 2013
-
In: Blood. - : American Society of Hematology. - 1528-0020 .- 0006-4971. ; 122:19, s. 3298-3307
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is the major pediatric cancer diagnosed in economically developed countries with B-cell precursor (BCP)-ALL, accounting for approximately 70% of ALL. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have provided the first unambiguous evidence for common inherited susceptibility to BCP-ALL, identifying susceptibility loci at 7p12.2, 9p21.3, 10q21.2, and 14q11.2. To identify additional BCP-ALL susceptibility loci, we conducted a GWAS and performed a meta-analysis with a published GWAS totaling 1658 cases and 4723 controls, with validation in 1449 cases and 1488 controls. Combined analysis identified novel loci mapping to 10p12.2 (rs10828317, odds ratio [OR] = 1.23; P = 2.30 x 10(-9)) and 10p14marked by rs3824662(OR = 1.31; P = 8.62 x 10(-12)). The single nucleotide polymorphism rs10828317 is responsible for the N215S polymorphism in exon 7 of PIP4K2A, and rs3824662 localizes to intron 3 of the transcription factor and putative tumor suppressor gene GATA3. The rs10828317 association was shown to be specifically associated with hyperdiploid ALL, whereas the rs3824662-associated risk was confined to nonhyperdiploid non-TEL-AML1 + ALL. The risk allele of rs3824662 was correlated with older age at diagnosis (P < .001) and significantly worse event-free survivorship (P < .0001). These findings provide further insights into the genetic and biological basis of inherited genetic susceptibility to BCP-ALL and the influence of constitutional genotype on disease development.
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44. |
- Nagore, Eduardo, et al.
(author)
-
TERT promoter mutations in melanoma survival.
- 2016
-
In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136. ; 139:1, s. 75-84
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite advances in targeted therapies, the treatment of advanced melanoma remains an exercise in disease management, hence a need for biomarkers for identification of at risk primary melanoma patients. In this study we aimed to assess the prognostic value of TERT promoter mutations in primary melanomas. DNA from 300 patients with stage I/II melanoma was sequenced for TERT promoter and BRAF/NRAS mutations. Cumulative curves were drawn for patients with and without mutations with progression free and melanoma specific survival as outcomes. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to determine the effect of the mutations on survivals. Individually, presence of TERT promoter and BRAF/NRAS mutations associated with poor disease free and melanoma specific survival with modification of the effect by the rs2853669 polymorphism within the TERT promoter. Hazard ratio (HR) for simultaneous occurrence of TERT promoter and BRAF/NRAS mutations for disease free survival was 2.25 (95%CI 1.2-4.4) and for melanoma specific survival 5.8 (95%CI 1.8-18.1). The effect of the mutations on melanoma-specific survival in non-carriers of variant allele of the polymorphism was significant (HR 4.4, 95%CI 1.3-14.9) but could not be calculated for the carriers due to low number of events. The variant allele per se showed association with increased survival (HR 0.4, 95%CI 0.1-0.9). The data in this study provides preliminary evidence that TERT promoter mutations in combination with BRAF/NRAS mutations can be used to identify patients at risk of aggressive disease and the possibility of refinement of the classification with inclusion of the rs2853669 polymorphism within TERT promoter. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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45. |
- Nisar, Muhammad Imran, et al.
(author)
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Early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels and its association with adverse pregnancy outcomes in three low middle-income countries in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
- 2024
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In: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1471-2393. ; 24:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Hyperglycemia during pregnancy leads to adverse maternal and fetal outcomes. Thus, strict monitoring of blood glucose levels is warranted. This study aims to determine the association of early to mid-pregnancy HbA1c levels with the development of pregnancy complications in women from three countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of the AMANHI (Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement) cohort, which enrolled 10,001 pregnant women between May 2014 and June 2018 across Sylhet-Bangladesh, Karachi-Pakistan, and Pemba Island-Tanzania. HbA1c assays were performed at enrollment (8 to < 20 gestational weeks), and epidemiological data were collected during 2-3 monthly household visits. The women were followed-up till the postpartum period to determine the pregnancy outcomes. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between elevated HbA1c levels and adverse events while controlling for potential confounders.Results: A total of 9,510 pregnant women were included in the analysis. The mean HbA1c level at enrollment was found to be the highest in Bangladesh (5.31 +/- 0.37), followed by Tanzania (5.22 +/- 0.49) and then Pakistan (5.07 +/- 0.58). We report 339 stillbirths and 9,039 live births. Among the live births were 892 preterm births, 892 deliveries via cesarean section, and 532 LGA babies. In the multivariate pooled analysis, maternal HbA1c levels of >= 6.5 were associated with increased risks of stillbirths (aRR = 6.3, 95% CI = 3.4,11.6); preterm births (aRR = 3.5, 95% CI = 1.8-6.7); and Large for Gestational Age (aRR = 5.5, 95% CI = 2.9-10.6).Conclusion: Maternal HbA1c level is an independent risk factor for predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes such as stillbirth, preterm birth, and LGA among women in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These groups may benefit from early interventional strategies.
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46. |
- Panda, Rishab, et al.
(author)
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Network analysis of chromophore binding site in LOV domain
- 2023
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In: Computers in Biology and Medicine. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0010-4825 .- 1879-0534. ; 161
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Photoreceptor proteins are versatile toolbox for developing biosensors for optogenetic applications. These molecular tools get activated upon illumination of blue light, which in turn offers a non-invasive method for gaining high spatiotemporal resolution and precise control of cellular signal transduction. The Light-Oxygen-Voltage (LOV) domain family of proteins is a well-recognized system for constructing optogenetic devices. Translation of these proteins into efficient cellular sensors is possible by tuning their photochemistry lifetime. However, the bottleneck is the need for more understanding of the relationship between the protein environment and photocycle kinetics. Significantly, the effect of the local environment also modulates the electronic structure of chromophore, which perturbs the electrostatic and hydrophobic interaction within the binding site. This work highlights the critical factors hidden in the protein networks, linking with their experimental photocycle kinetics. It presents an opportunity to quantitatively examine the alternation in chromophore's equilibrium geometry and identify details which have substantial implications in designing synthetic LOV constructs with desirable photocycle efficiency.
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47. |
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48. |
- Prashar, Atul K., et al.
(author)
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In situ synthesis of Pt nanoparticles in SBA-15 by encapsulating in modified template micelles : size restricted growth within the mesochannels
- 2008
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In: Journal of Materials Chemistry. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 0959-9428 .- 1364-5501. ; 18:15, s. 1765-1770
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A truly in situ and simple method is developed for nanoparticle incorporation within the mesochannels of SBA-15 involving dispersion of metal precursors in surfactant-modified polymer micelles. The diffusion of the precursor within the micellar structure is aided by interaction with the cationic head group of the surfactant leading to a unique method to facilitate the formation of highly disperse, uniform nanoparticles molded by the walls of the mesochannels. The nanoparticle incorporated mesoporous material has a highly enhanced surface area and adsorption capabilities in comparison to its parent materials without any pore blockage which makes this method ideal for the preparation of nanocatalysts.
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49. |
- Purdue, Mark P, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study of renal cell carcinoma identifies two susceptibility loci on 2p21 and 11q13.3
- 2011
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 43:1, s. 60-65
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in 3,772 affected individuals (cases) and 8,505 controls of European background from 11 studies and followed up 6 SNPs in 3 replication studies of 2,198 cases and 4,918 controls. Two loci on the regions of 2p21 and 11q13.3 were associated with RCC susceptibility below genome-wide significance. Two correlated variants (r² = 0.99 in controls), rs11894252 (P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁸) and rs7579899 (P = 2.3 × 10⁻⁹), map to EPAS1 on 2p21, which encodes hypoxia-inducible-factor-2 alpha, a transcription factor previously implicated in RCC. The second locus, rs7105934, at 11q13.3, contains no characterized genes (P = 7.8 × 10⁻¹⁴). In addition, we observed a promising association on 12q24.31 for rs4765623, which maps to SCARB1, the scavenger receptor class B, member 1 gene (P = 2.6 × 10⁻⁸). Our study reports previously unidentified genomic regions associated with RCC risk that may lead to new etiological insights.
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50. |
- Rachakonda, P. Sivaramakrishna, et al.
(author)
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Somatic Mutations in Exocrine Pancreatic Tumors: Association with Patient Survival
- 2013
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- KRAS mutations are major factors involved in initiation and maintenance of pancreatic tumors. The impact of different mutations on patient survival has not been clearly defined. We screened tumors from 171 pancreatic cancer patients for mutations in KRAS and CDKN2A genes. Mutations in KRAS were detected in 134 tumors, with 131 in codon 12 and only 3 in codon 61. The GGT>GAT (G12D) was the most frequent mutation and was present in 60% (80/134). Deletions and mutations in CDKN2A were detected in 43 tumors. Analysis showed that KRAS mutations were associated with reduced patient survival in both malignant exocrine and ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC). Patients with PDACs that had KRAS mutations showed a median survival of 17 months compared to 30 months for those without mutations (log-rank P = 0.07) with a multivariate hazard ratio (HR) of 2.19 (95% CI 1.09-4.42). The patients with G12D mutation showed a median survival of 16 months (log-rank-test P = 0.03) and an associated multivariate HR 2.42 (95% CI 1.14-2.67). Although, the association of survival in PDAC patients with CDKN2A aberrations in tumors was not statistically significant, the sub-group of patients with concomitant KRAS mutations and CDKN2A alterations in tumors were associated with a median survival of 13.5 months compared to 22 months without mutation (log-rank-test P = 0.02) and a corresponding HR of 3.07 (95% CI 1.33-7.10). Our results are indicative of an association between mutational status and survival in PDAC patients, which if confirmed in subsequent studies can have potential clinical application.
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