| 1. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(author)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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In: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 3. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 4. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N., et al.
(author)
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The PREDICTS database : a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts
- 2014
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In: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 4:24, s. 4701-4735
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species' threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project - and avert - future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups - including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems - ). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.
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| 5. |
- Bashkin, O., et al.
(author)
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The future public health workforce in a changing world : A conceptual framework for a european–israeli knowledge transfer project
- 2021
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In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. - : MDPI. - 1661-7827 .- 1660-4601. ; 18:17
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Health services quality and sustainability rely mainly on a qualified workforce. Adequately trained public health personnel protect and promote health, avert health disparities, and allow rapid response to health emergencies. Evaluations of the healthcare workforce typically focus on physicians and nurses in curative medical venues. Few have evaluated public health workforce capacity building or sought to identify gaps between the academic training of public health employees and the needs of the healthcare organizations in which they are employed. This project report describes the conceptual framework of “Sharing European Educational Experience in Public Health for Israel (SEEEPHI): harmonization, employability, leadership, and outreach”—a multinational Erasmus+ Capacity Building in Higher Education funded project. By sharing European educational experience and knowledge, the project aims to enhance professionalism and strengthen leadership aspects of the public health workforce in Israel to meet the needs of employers and the country. The project’s work packages, each jointly led by an Israeli and European institution, include field qualification analysis, mapping public health academic training programs, workforce adaptation, and building leadership capacity. In the era of global health changes, it is crucial to assess the capacity building of a well-qualified and competent workforce that enables providing good health services, reaching out to minorities, preventing health inequalities, and confronting emerging health challenges. We anticipate that the methods developed and the lessons learned within the Israeli context will be adaptable and adoptable by other countries through local and cultural adjustments.
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