| 1. |
- Lind, Lars, et al.
(author)
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Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
- 2021
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In: eLife. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions.
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| 2. |
- Bixby, H., et al.
(author)
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Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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| 3. |
- Mishra, A, et al.
(author)
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Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development
- 2023
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 615:7954, s. 874-883
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1–6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5–19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m–2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.
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| 7. |
- Taddei, C, et al.
(author)
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Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 582:7810, s. 73-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.
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| 11. |
- Anney, R. J. L., et al.
(author)
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Meta-analysis of GWAS of over 16,000 individuals with autism spectrum disorder highlights a novel locus at 10q24.32 and a significant overlap with schizophrenia
- 2017
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In: Molecular Autism. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2040-2392. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Over the past decade genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been applied to aid in the understanding of the biology of traits. The success of this approach is governed by the underlying effect sizes carried by the true risk variants and the corresponding statistical power to observe such effects given the study design and sample size under investigation. Previous ASD GWAS have identified genome-wide significant (GWS) risk loci; however, these studies were of only of low statistical power to identify GWS loci at the lower effect sizes (odds ratio (OR) < 1.15). Methods: We conducted a large-scale coordinated international collaboration to combine independent genotyping data to improve the statistical power and aid in robust discovery of GWS loci. This study uses genome-wide genotyping data from a discovery sample (7387 ASD cases and 8567 controls) followed by meta-analysis of summary statistics from two replication sets (7783 ASD cases and 11359 controls; and 1369 ASD cases and 137308 controls). Results: We observe a GWS locus at 10q24.32 that overlaps several genes including PITX3, which encodes a transcription factor identified as playing a role in neuronal differentiation and CUEDC2 previously reported to be associated with social skills in an independent population cohort. We also observe overlap with regions previously implicated in schizophrenia which was further supported by a strong genetic correlation between these disorders (Rg = 0.23; P= 9 x10(-6)). We further combined these Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) ASD GWAS data with the recent PGC schizophrenia GWAS to identify additional regions which may be important in a common neurodevelopmental phenotype and identified 12 novel GWS loci. These include loci previously implicated in ASD such as FOXP1 at 3p13, ATP2B2 at 3p25.3, and a 'neurodevelopmental hub' on chromosome 8p11.23. Conclusions: This study is an important step in the ongoing endeavour to identify the loci which underpin the common variant signal in ASD. In addition to novel GWS loci, we have identified a significant genetic correlation with schizophrenia and association of ASD with several neurodevelopmental- related genes such as EXT1, ASTN2, MACROD2, and HDAC4.
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| 12. |
- Weiner, D. J., et al.
(author)
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Polygenic transmission disequilibrium confirms that common and rare variation act additively to create risk for autism spectrum disorders
- 2017
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 49:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) risk is influenced by common polygenic and de novo variation. We aimed to clarify the influence of polygenic risk for ASD and to identify subgroups of ASD cases, including those with strongly acting de novo variants, in which polygenic risk is relevant. Using a novel approach called the polygenic transmission disequilibrium test and data from 6,454 families with a child with ASD, we show that polygenic risk for ASD, schizophrenia, and greater educational attainment is over-transmitted to children with ASD. These findings hold independent of proband IQ. We find that polygenic variation contributes additively to risk in ASD cases who carry a strongly acting de novo variant. Lastly, we show that elements of polygenic risk are independent and differ in their relationship with phenotype. These results confirm that the genetic influences on ASD are additive and suggest that they create risk through at least partially distinct etiologic pathways.
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| 13. |
- Kepp, Kasper P., et al.
(author)
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Panel stacking is a threat to consensus statement validity
- 2024
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In: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology. - : Elsevier. - 0895-4356 .- 1878-5921. ; 173
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Consensus statements can be very influential in medicine and public health. Some of these statements use systematic evidence synthesis but others fail on this front. Many consensus statements use panels of experts to deduce perceived consensus through Delphi processes. We argue that stacking of panel members toward one particular position or narrative is a major threat, especially in absence of systematic evidence review. Stacking may involve financial conflicts of interest, but nonfinancial conflicts of strong advocacy can also cause major bias. Given their emerging importance, we describe here how such consensus statements may be misleading, by analyzing in depth a recent high-impact Delphi consensus statement on COVID-19 recommendations as a case example. We demonstrate that many of the selected panel members and at least 35% of the core panel members had advocated toward COVID-19 elimination (Zero-COVID) during the pandemic and were leading members of aggressive advocacy groups. These advocacy conflicts were not declared in the Delphi consensus publication, with rare exceptions. Therefore, we propose that consensus statements should always require rigorous evidence synthesis and maximal transparency on potential biases toward advocacy or lobbyist groups to be valid. While advocacy can have many important functions, its biased impact on consensus panels should be carefully avoided.
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| 15. |
- Lopez-Jaramillo, P., et al.
(author)
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Association of the triglyceride glucose index as a measure of insulin resistance with mortality and cardiovascular disease in populations from five continents (PURE study): a prospective cohort study
- 2023
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In: Lancet Healthy Longevity. - : Elsevier BV. - 2666-7568. ; 4:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is an easily accessible surrogate marker of insulin resistance, an important pathway in the development of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. However, the association of the TyG index with cardiovascular diseases and mortality has mainly been investigated in Asia, with few data available from other regions of the world. We assessed the association of insulin resistance (as determined by the TyG index) with mortality and cardiovascular diseases in individuals from five continents at different levels of economic development, living in urban or rural areas. We also examined whether the associations differed according to the country's economical development. Methods We used the TyG index as a surrogate measure for insulin resistance. Fasting triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose were measured at the baseline visit in 141 243 individuals aged 35-70 years from 22 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. The TyG index was calculated as Ln (fasting triglycerides [mg/dL] x fasting plasma glucose [mg/dL]/2). We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random effects to test the associations between the TyG index and risk of cardiovascular diseases and mortality. The primary outcome of this analysis was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, and non-fatal myocardial infarction, or stroke). Secondary outcomes were non-cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular mortality, all myocardial infarctions, stroke, and incident diabetes. We also did subgroup analyses to examine the magnitude of associations between insulin resistance (ie, the TyG index) and outcome events according to the income level of the countries. Findings During a median follow-up of 13 center dot 2 years (IQR 11 center dot 9-14 center dot 6), we recorded 6345 composite cardiovascular diseases events, 2030 cardiovascular deaths, 3038 cases of myocardial infarction, 3291 cases of stroke, and 5191 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for all other variables, the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases increased across tertiles of the baseline TyG index. Compared with the lowest tertile of the TyG index, the highest tertile (tertile 3) was associated with a greater incidence of the composite outcome (HR 1 center dot 21; 95% CI 1 center dot 13-1 center dot 30), myocardial infarction (1 center dot 24; 1 center dot 12-1 center dot 38), stroke (1 center dot 16; 1 center dot 05-1 center dot 28), and incident type 2 diabetes (1 center dot 99; 1 center dot 82-2 center dot 16). No significant association of the TyG index was seen with non-cardiovascular mortality. In low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs), the highest tertile of the TyG index was associated with increased hazards for the composite outcome (LICs: HR 1 center dot 31; 95% CI 1 center dot 12-1 center dot 54; MICs: 1 center dot 20; 1 center dot 11-1 center dot 31; p(interaction)=0 center dot 01), cardiovascular mortality (LICs: 1 center dot 44; 1 center dot 15-1 center dot 80; p(interaction)=0 center dot 01), myocardial infarction (LICs: 1 center dot 29; 1 center dot 06-1 center dot 56; MICs: 1 center dot 26; 1 center dot 10-1 center dot 45; p(interaction)=0 center dot 08), stroke (LICs: 1 center dot 35; 1 center dot 02-1 center dot 78; MICs: 1 center dot 17; 1 center dot 05-1 center dot 30; p interaction=0 center dot 19), and incident diabetes (LICs: 1 center dot 64; 1 center dot 38-1 center dot 94; MICs: 2 center dot 68; 2 center dot 40-2 center dot 99; p(interaction) <0 center dot 0001). In contrast, in high-income countries, higher TyG index tertiles were only associated with an increased hazard of incident diabetes (2 center dot 95; 2 center dot 25-3 center dot 87; p(interaction)<0 center dot 0001), but not of cardiovascular diseases or mortality. Interpretation The TyG index is significantly associated with future cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and type 2 diabetes, suggesting that insulin resistance plays a promoting role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. Potentially, the association between the TyG index and the higher risk of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes in LICs and MICs might be explained by an increased vulnerability of these populations to the presence of insulin resistance. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
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| 23. |
- Goedecke, J H, et al.
(author)
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Glucocorticoid receptor gene expression in adipose tissue and associated metabolic risk in black and white South African women
- 2015
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In: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0307-0565 .- 1476-5497. ; 39:2, s. 303-311
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Black women have lower visceral adipose tissue (VAT) but are less insulin sensitive than white women; the mechanisms responsible are unknown.Objective: The study aimed to test the hypothesis that variation in subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) sensitivity to glucocorticoids might underlie these differences.Methods: Body fatness (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) and distribution (computerized tomography), insulin sensitivity (SI, intravenous and oral glucose tolerance tests), and expression of 11β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase-1 (11HSD1), hexose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase and glucocorticoid receptor-α (GRα), as well as genes involved in adipogenesis and inflammation were measured in abdominal deep SAT, superficial SAT and gluteal SAT (GLUT) depots of 56 normal-weight or obese black and white premenopausal South African (SA) women. We used a combination of univariate and multivariate statistics to evaluate ethnic-specific patterns in adipose gene expression and related body composition and insulin sensitivity measures.Results: Although 11HSD1 activity and mRNA did not differ by ethnicity, GRα mRNA levels were significantly lower in SAT of black compared with white women, particularly in the GLUT depot (0.52±0.21 vs 0.91±0.26 AU, respectively, P<0.01). In black women, lower SAT GRα mRNA levels were associated with increased inflammatory gene transcript levels and abdominal SAT area, and reduced adipogenic gene transcript levels, VAT/SAT ratio and SI. Abdominal SAT 11HSD1 activity associated with increased VAT area and decreased SI in white, but not in black women.Conclusions: In black SA women, downregulation of GRα mRNA levels with obesity and reduced insulin sensitivity, possibly via increased SAT inflammation, is associated with reduced VAT accumulation.
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| 26. |
- Lim, Lee Ling, et al.
(author)
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Aspects of Multicomponent Integrated Care Promote Sustained Improvement in Surrogate Clinical Outcomes: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
- 2018
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In: Diabetes care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 41:6, s. 1312-1320
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The implementation of the Chronic Care Model (CCM) improves health care quality. We examined the sustained effectiveness of multicomponent integrated care in type 2 diabetes.We searched PubMed and Ovid MEDLINE (January 2000-August 2016) and identified randomized controlled trials comprising two or more quality improvement strategies from two or more domains (health system, health care providers, or patients) lasting ≥12 months with one or more clinical outcomes. Two reviewers extracted data and appraised the reporting quality.In a meta-analysis of 181 trials (N = 135,112), random-effects modeling revealed pooled mean differences in HbA1c of -0.28% (95% CI -0.35 to -0.21) (-3.1 mmol/mol [-3.9 to -2.3]), in systolic blood pressure (SBP) of -2.3 mmHg (-3.1 to -1.4), in diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of -1.1 mmHg (-1.5 to -0.6), and in LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) of -0.14 mmol/L (-0.21 to -0.07), with greater effects in patients with LDL-C ≥3.4 mmol/L (-0.31 vs. -0.10 mmol/L for <3.4 mmol/L; Pdifference = 0.013), studies from Asia (HbA1c -0.51% vs. -0.23% for North America [-5.5 vs. -2.5 mmol/mol]; Pdifference = 0.046), and studies lasting >12 months (SBP -3.4 vs. -1.4 mmHg, Pdifference = 0.034; DBP -1.7 vs. -0.7 mmHg, Pdifference = 0.047; LDL-C -0.21 vs. -0.07 mmol/L for 12-month studies, Pdifference = 0.049). Patients with median age <60 years had greater HbA1c reduction (-0.35% vs. -0.18% for ≥60 years [-3.8 vs. -2.0 mmol/mol]; Pdifference = 0.029). Team change, patient education/self-management, and improved patient-provider communication had the largest effect sizes (0.28-0.36% [3.0-3.9 mmol/mol]).Despite the small effect size of multicomponent integrated care (in part attenuated by good background care), team-based care with better information flow may improve patient-provider communication and self-management in patients who are young, with suboptimal control, and in low-resource settings.
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