| 1. |
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- 2019
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
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| 6. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 7. |
- Clark, Andrew G., et al.
(author)
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Evolution of genes and genomes on the Drosophila phylogeny
- 2007
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 450:7167, s. 203-218
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Comparative analysis of multiple genomes in a phylogenetic framework dramatically improves the precision and sensitivity of evolutionary inference, producing more robust results than single-genome analyses can provide. The genomes of 12 Drosophila species, ten of which are presented here for the first time (sechellia, simulans, yakuba, erecta, ananassae, persimilis, willistoni, mojavensis, virilis and grimshawi), illustrate how rates and patterns of sequence divergence across taxa can illuminate evolutionary processes on a genomic scale. These genome sequences augment the formidable genetic tools that have made Drosophila melanogaster a pre-eminent model for animal genetics, and will further catalyse fundamental research on mechanisms of development, cell biology, genetics, disease, neurobiology, behaviour, physiology and evolution. Despite remarkable similarities among these Drosophila species, we identified many putatively non-neutral changes in protein-coding genes, non-coding RNA genes, and cis-regulatory regions. These may prove to underlie differences in the ecology and behaviour of these diverse species.
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| 8. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 9. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 10. |
- Abazajian, Kevork, et al.
(author)
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CMB-S4 : Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves
- 2022
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 926:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.
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| 11. |
- Haycock, Philip C., et al.
(author)
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Association Between Telomere Length and Risk of Cancer and Non-Neoplastic Diseases A Mendelian Randomization Study
- 2017
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In: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 3:5, s. 636-651
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The causal direction and magnitude of the association between telomere length and incidence of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases is uncertain owing to the susceptibility of observational studies to confounding and reverse causation. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a Mendelian randomization study, using germline genetic variants as instrumental variables, to appraise the causal relevance of telomere length for risk of cancer and non-neoplastic diseases. DATA SOURCES: Genomewide association studies (GWAS) published up to January 15, 2015. STUDY SELECTION: GWAS of noncommunicable diseases that assayed germline genetic variation and did not select cohort or control participants on the basis of preexisting diseases. Of 163 GWAS of noncommunicable diseases identified, summary data from 103 were available. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Summary association statistics for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are strongly associated with telomere length in the general population. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for disease per standard deviation (SD) higher telomere length due to germline genetic variation. RESULTS: Summary data were available for 35 cancers and 48 non-neoplastic diseases, corresponding to 420 081 cases (median cases, 2526 per disease) and 1 093 105 controls (median, 6789 per disease). Increased telomere length due to germline genetic variation was generally associated with increased risk for site-specific cancers. The strongest associations (ORs [ 95% CIs] per 1-SD change in genetically increased telomere length) were observed for glioma, 5.27 (3.15-8.81); serous low-malignant-potential ovarian cancer, 4.35 (2.39-7.94); lung adenocarcinoma, 3.19 (2.40-4.22); neuroblastoma, 2.98 (1.92-4.62); bladder cancer, 2.19 (1.32-3.66); melanoma, 1.87 (1.55-2.26); testicular cancer, 1.76 (1.02-3.04); kidney cancer, 1.55 (1.08-2.23); and endometrial cancer, 1.31 (1.07-1.61). Associations were stronger for rarer cancers and at tissue sites with lower rates of stem cell division. There was generally little evidence of association between genetically increased telomere length and risk of psychiatric, autoimmune, inflammatory, diabetic, and other non-neoplastic diseases, except for coronary heart disease (OR, 0.78 [ 95% CI, 0.67-0.90]), abdominal aortic aneurysm (OR, 0.63 [ 95% CI, 0.49-0.81]), celiac disease (OR, 0.42 [ 95% CI, 0.28-0.61]) and interstitial lung disease (OR, 0.09 [ 95% CI, 0.05-0.15]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: It is likely that longer telomeres increase risk for several cancers but reduce risk for some non-neoplastic diseases, including cardiovascular diseases.
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| 12. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 13. |
- Murray, Alison E., et al.
(author)
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Roadmap for naming uncultivated Archaea and Bacteria
- 2020
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In: Nature Microbiology. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2058-5276. ; 5:8, s. 987-994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The assembly of single-amplified genomes (SAGs) and metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) has led to a surge in genome-based discoveries of members affiliated with Archaea and Bacteria, bringing with it a need to develop guidelines for nomenclature of uncultivated microorganisms. The International Code of Nomenclature of Prokaryotes (ICNP) only recognizes cultures as 'type material', thereby preventing the naming of uncultivated organisms. In this Consensus Statement, we propose two potential paths to solve this nomenclatural conundrum. One option is the adoption of previously proposed modifications to the ICNP to recognize DNA sequences as acceptable type material; the other option creates a nomenclatural code for uncultivated Archaea and Bacteria that could eventually be merged with the ICNP in the future. Regardless of the path taken, we believe that action is needed now within the scientific community to develop consistent rules for nomenclature of uncultivated taxa in order to provide clarity and stability, and to effectively communicate microbial diversity. In this Consensus Statement, the authors discuss the issue of naming uncultivated prokaryotic microorganisms, which currently do not have a formal nomenclature system due to a lack of type material or cultured representatives, and propose two recommendations including the recognition of DNA sequences as type material.
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| 14. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 15. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Aebersold, Ruedi, et al.
(author)
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How many human proteoforms are there?
- 2018
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In: Nature Chemical Biology. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1552-4450 .- 1552-4469. ; 14:3, s. 206-214
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite decades of accumulated knowledge about proteins and their post-translational modifications (PTMs), numerous questions remain regarding their molecular composition and biological function. One of the most fundamental queries is the extent to which the combinations of DNA-, RNA-and PTM-level variations explode the complexity of the human proteome. Here, we outline what we know from current databases and measurement strategies including mass spectrometry-based proteomics. In doing so, we examine prevailing notions about the number of modifications displayed on human proteins and how they combine to generate the protein diversity underlying health and disease. We frame central issues regarding determination of protein-level variation and PTMs, including some paradoxes present in the field today. We use this framework to assess existing data and to ask the question, "How many distinct primary structures of proteins (proteoforms) are created from the 20,300 human genes?" We also explore prospects for improving measurements to better regularize protein-level biology and efficiently associate PTMs to function and phenotype.
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| 20. |
- Ahmad, Amais, et al.
(author)
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IMI – Oral biopharmaceutics tools project – Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 4 : Prediction accuracy and software comparisons with improved data and modelling strategies
- 2020
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In: European journal of pharmaceutics and biopharmaceutics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0939-6411 .- 1873-3441. ; 156, s. 50-63
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Oral drug absorption is a complex process depending on many factors, including the physicochemical properties of the drug, formulation characteristics and their interplay with gastrointestinal physiology and biology. Physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models integrate all available information on gastro-intestinal system with drug and formulation data to predict oral drug absorption. The latter together with in vitro-in vivo extrapolation and other preclinical data on drug disposition can be used to predict plasma concentration-time profiles in silico. Despite recent successes of PBPK in many areas of drug development, an improvement in their utility for evaluating oral absorption is much needed. Current status of predictive performance, within the confinement of commonly available in vitro data on drugs and formulations alongside systems information, were tested using 3 PBPK software packages (GI-Sim (ver.4.1), Simcyp® Simulator (ver.15.0.86.0), and GastroPlusTM (ver.9.0.00xx)). This was part of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools (OrBiTo) project.Fifty eight active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) were qualified from the OrBiTo database to be part of the investigation based on a priori set criteria on availability of minimum necessary information to allow modelling exercise. The set entailed over 200 human clinical studies with over 700 study arms. These were simulated using input parameters which had been harmonised by a panel of experts across different software packages prior to conduct of any simulation. Overall prediction performance and software packages comparison were evaluated based on performance indicators (Fold error (FE), Average fold error (AFE) and absolute average fold error (AAFE)) of pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters.On average, PK parameters (Area Under the Concentration-time curve (AUC0-tlast), Maximal concentration (Cmax), half-life (t1/2)) were predicted with AFE values between 1.11 and 1.97. Variability in FEs of these PK parameters was relatively high with AAFE values ranging from 2.08 to 2.74. Around half of the simulations were within the 2-fold error for AUC0-tlast and around 90% of the simulations were within 10-fold error for AUC0-tlast. Oral bioavailability (Foral) predictions, which were limited to 19 APIs having intravenous (i.v.) human data, showed AFE and AAFE of values 1.37 and 1.75 respectively. Across different APIs, AFE of AUC0-tlast predictions were between 0.22 and 22.76 with 70% of the APIs showing an AFE > 1. When compared across different formulations and routes of administration, AUC0-tlast for oral controlled release and i.v. administration were better predicted than that for oral immediate release formulations. Average predictive performance did not clearly differ between software packages but some APIs showed a high level of variability in predictive performance across different software packages. This variability could be related to several factors such as compound specific properties, the quality and availability of information, and errors in scaling from in vitro and preclinical in vivo data to human in vivo behaviour which will be explored further. Results were compared with previous similar exercise when the input data selection was carried by the modeller rather than a panel of experts on each in vitro test. Overall, average predictive performance was increased as reflected in smaller AAFE value of 2.8 as compared to AAFE value of 3.8 in case of previous exercise.
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| 21. |
- Andersson, Cecilia K., et al.
(author)
-
Impaired airway epithelial cell wound-healing capacity is associated with airway remodelling following RSV infection in severe preschool wheeze
- 2020
-
In: Allergy: European Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : Wiley. - 0105-4538. ; 75:12, s. 3195-3207
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes exacerbations of asthma and preschool wheeze (PSW). However, the anti-viral and repair responses of the bronchial epithelium in children with severe therapy-resistant asthma (STRA) and PSW are poorly understood. Methods: Children with STRA (age 12 [6-16] years), PSW (age 2 [1-5] years) and non-asthmatic controls (age 7 [2-14] years) underwent bronchoscopy with endobronchial brushings and biopsies. Anti-viral, wound injury responses were quantified in biopsies and primary bronchial epithelial cells (PBECs) in response to RSV, poly(I:C), house dust mite (HDM) or IL-33 using RT-qPCR, Luminex and live cell imaging. Collagen deposition and tissue expression of epithelial growth factor receptor (EGFR), IL-33 and receptor ST2 were investigated in bronchial biopsies. Results: PBECs from STRA and PSW had increased TLR3 gene expression and increased secretion of anti-viral and pro-inflammatory cytokines (IFN-γ, IL-6 and IL-13) in response to RSV compared to controls. Exposure of PBECs to concomitant TLR3 agonist poly(I:C) and HDM resulted in a significant reduction in epithelial cell proliferation in PSW compared to controls. Wound-healing was also impaired in PSW compared to controls at baseline and following IL-33 stimulation. In addition, tissue EGFR expression was significantly reduced in PSW and correlated with collagen deposition in endobronchial biopsies. Conclusions: Despite increased anti-viral responses, preschool children with severe wheeze had impaired airway epithelial proliferative responses following damage. This might be connected to the low expression of EGFR in PSW which may affect epithelial function and contribute to asthma pathogenesis.
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| 22. |
- Bass, Gary Alan, 1979-, et al.
(author)
-
Techniques for mesoappendix transection and appendix resection: insights from the ESTES SnapAppy study
- 2023
-
In: European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1863-9933 .- 1615-3146 .- 1863-9941. ; 49, s. 17-32
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction: Surgically managed appendicitis exhibits great heterogeneity in techniques for mesoappendix transection and appendix amputation from its base. It is unclear whether a particular surgical technique provides outcome benefit or reduces complications. Material and methods: We undertook a pre-specified subgroup analysis of all patients who underwent laparoscopic appendectomy at index admission during SnapAppy (ClinicalTrials.gov Registration: NCT04365491). We collected routine, anonymized observational data regarding surgical technique, patient demographics and indices of disease severity, without change to clinical care pathway or usual surgeon preference. Outcome measures of interest were the incidence of complications, unplanned reoperation, readmission, admission to the ICU, death, hospital length of stay, and procedure duration. We used Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to calculate incident rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: Three-thousand seven hundred sixty-eight consecutive adult patients, included from 71 centers in 14 countries, were followed up from date of admission for 90days. The mesoappendix was divided hemostatically using electrocautery in 1564(69.4%) and an energy device in 688(30.5%). The appendix was amputated by division of its base between looped ligatures in 1379(37.0%), with a stapler in 1421(38.1%) and between clips in 929(24.9%). The technique for securely dividing the appendix at its base in acutely inflamed (AAST Grade 1) appendicitis was equally divided between division between looped ligatures, clips and stapled transection. However, the technique used differed in complicated appendicitis (AAST Grade 2 +) compared with uncomplicated (Grade 1), with a shift toward transection of the appendix base by stapler (58% vs. 38%; p < 0.001). While no statistical difference in outcomes could be detected between different techniques for division of appendix base, decreased risk of any [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.58 (0.41–0.82), p = 0.002] and severe [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 0.33 (0.11–0.96), p = 0.045] complications could be detected when using energy devices. Conclusions: Safe mesoappendix transection and appendix resection are accomplished using heterogeneous techniques. Technique selection for both mesoappendix transection and appendix resection correlates with AAST grade. Higher grade led to more ultrasonic tissue transection and stapled appendix resection. Higher AAST appendicitis grade also correlated with infection-related complication occurrence. Despite the overall well-tolerated heterogeneity of approaches to acute appendicitis, increasing disease acuity or complexity appears to encourage homogeneity of intraoperative surgical technique toward advanced adjuncts.
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| 23. |
- Budd, John, et al.
(author)
-
Theoretical Foundations for Information Literacy : a Plan for Action
- 2014
-
In: Proceedings of the American Society for Information Science and Technology : 2014 - 2014. - 2373-9231. ; 51, s. 1-4
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Information literacy is both a common and an important learning activity with higher education. That said, it is under-theorized as a process and as a path to a product. In order to meet the need for theory, the four panelists will offer four distinct possibilities for theoretical frameworks. While the four frameworks are able to stand alone, there is also the likelihood that they might be melded together in order to form an even richer and more robust underpinning for the work of information literacy and instruction. This panel fills a need that has heretofore been found wanting in the topic.
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| 24. |
- Darwich, Adam S., et al.
(author)
-
IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 3 : Identifying gaps in system parameters by analysing In Silico performance across different compound classes
- 2017
-
In: European Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 0928-0987 .- 1879-0720. ; 96, s. 626-642
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Three Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp (R) Simulator, and GastroPlus (TM)) were evaluated as part of the Innovative Medicine Initiative Oral Biopharmaceutics Tools project (OrBiTo) during a blinded "bottom-up" anticipation of human pharmacokinetics. After data analysis of the predicted vs. measured pharmacokinetics parameters, it was found that oral bioavailability (F-oral) was underpredicted for compounds with low permeability, suggesting improper estimates of intestinal surface area, colonic absorption and/or lack of intestinal transporter information. Foralwas also underpredicted for acidic compounds, suggesting overestimation of impact of ionisation on permeation, lack of information on intestinal transporters, or underestimation of solubilisation of weak acids due to less than optimal intestinal model pH settings or underestimation of bile micelle contribution. F-oral was overpredicted for weak bases, suggesting inadequate models for precipitation or lack of in vitro precipitation information to build informed models. Relative bioavailability was underpredicted for both high logP compounds as well as poorly water-soluble compounds, suggesting inadequate models for solubility/dissolution, underperforming bile enhancement models and/or lack of biorelevant solubility measurements. These results indicate areas for improvement in model software, modelling approaches, and generation of applicable input data. However, caution is required when interpreting the impact of drug-specific properties in this exercise, as the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, and the modellers generally used the data "as is" in this blinded bottom-up prediction approach.
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| 25. |
- Forssten, Maximilian Peter, 1996-, et al.
(author)
-
Surgical management of acute appendicitis during the European COVID-19 second wave: safe and effective
- 2023
-
In: European Journal of Trauma and Emergency Surgery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1863-9933 .- 1615-3146 .- 1863-9941. ; 49, s. 57-67
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction: The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic drove acute care surgeons to pivot from long established practice patterns. Early safety concerns regarding increased postoperative complication risk in those with active COVID infection promoted antibiotic-driven non-operative therapy for select conditions ahead of an evidence-base. Our study assesses whether active or recent SARS-CoV-2 positivity increases hospital length of stay (LOS) or postoperative complications following appendectomy. Methods: Data were derived from the prospective multi-institutional observational SnapAppy cohort study. This preplanned data analysis assessed consecutive patients aged ≥ 15years who underwent appendectomy for appendicitis (November 2020–May 2021). Patients were categorized based on SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity: no infection, active infection, and prior infection. Appendectomy method, LOS, and complications were abstracted. The association between SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and complications was determined using Poisson regression, while the association with LOS was calculated using a quantile regression model. Results: Appendectomy for acute appendicitis was performed in 4047 patients during the second and third European COVID waves. The majority were SARS-CoV-2 uninfected (3861, 95.4%), while 70 (1.7%) were acutely SARS-CoV-2 positive, and 116 (2.8%) reported prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. After confounder adjustment, there was no statistically significant association between SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and LOS, any complication, or severe complications. Conclusion: During sequential SARS-CoV-2 infection waves, neither active nor prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with prolonged hospital LOS or postoperative complication. Despite early concerns regarding postoperative safety and outcome during active SARS-CoV-2 infection, no such association was noted for those with appendicitis who underwent operative management.
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| 26. |
- Goedert, James L., et al.
(author)
-
Octocorals (Alcyonacea and Pennatulacea) from Paleogene deep-water strata in western Washington State, USA
- 2022
-
In: Journal of Paleontology. - Washington DC : Paleontological Society (United States). - 0022-3360 .- 1937-2337. ; 96:3, s. 539-551
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The fossil record of octocorals from Cenozoic marine strata of western North America is quite limited, and they have not been reported previously from rocks in Washington State, USA. Two late Oligocene specimens from the upper part of the Lincoln Creek Formation in western Washington, referred to Radicipes? sp., are the first fossil record of the family Chrysogorgiidae. The family Isididae is represented by an internode and two holdfasts identified as Isidella sp. collected from the Oligocene Pysht Formation, along with specimens questionably identified as Lepidisis sp., possibly the first fossil record for this genus. Together, these are the first confirmed fossils of the Alcyonacea from north of California in western North America. The axes of sea pens from several late Eocene or early Oligocene localities in the Lincoln Creek Formation in the central part of western Washington, and the Pysht and Makah formations on the north side of the Olympic Peninsula, are the first fossil record for the Pennatulacea from western North America; all are tentatively referred to the genus ‘Graphularia’. Large axes from the Lincoln Creek Formation and Makah Formation are referred to ‘Graphularia’ (?) aff. sasai, because they are similar to the species known only from late Eocene and early Oligocene rocks in Japan.
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| 27. |
- Harrison, Craig D., et al.
(author)
-
THE XMM CLUSTER SURVEY : THE STELLAR MASS ASSEMBLY OF FOSSIL GALAXIES
- 2012
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 752:1, s. 12-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents both the result of a search for fossil systems (FSs) within the XMM Cluster Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the results of a study of the stellar mass assembly and stellar populations of their fossil galaxies. In total, 17 groups and clusters are identified at z < 0.25 with large magnitude gaps between the first and fourth brightest galaxies. All the information necessary to classify these systems as fossils is provided. For both groups and clusters, the total and fractional luminosity of the brightest galaxy is positively correlated with the magnitude gap. The brightest galaxies in FSs (called fossil galaxies) have stellar populations and star formation histories which are similar to normal brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs). However, at fixed group/cluster mass, the stellar masses of the fossil galaxies are larger compared to normal BCGs, a fact that holds true over a wide range of group/cluster masses. Moreover, the fossil galaxies are found to contain a significant fraction of the total optical luminosity of the group/cluster within 0.5 R-200, as much as 85%, compared to the non-fossils, which can have as little as 10%. Our results suggest that FSs formed early and in the highest density regions of the universe and that fossil galaxies represent the end products of galaxy mergers in groups and clusters.
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| 28. |
- Hinkley, Sasha, et al.
(author)
-
The JWST Early Release Science Program for the Direct Imaging and Spectroscopy of Exoplanetary Systems
- 2022
-
In: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 134:1039
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The direct characterization of exoplanetary systems with high-contrast imaging is among the highest priorities for the broader exoplanet community. As large space missions will be necessary for detecting and characterizing exo-Earth twins, developing the techniques and technology for direct imaging of exoplanets is a driving focus for the community. For the first time, JWST will directly observe extrasolar planets at mid-infrared wavelengths beyond 5 μm, deliver detailed spectroscopy revealing much more precise chemical abundances and atmospheric conditions, and provide sensitivity to analogs of our solar system ice-giant planets at wide orbital separations, an entirely new class of exoplanet. However, in order to maximize the scientific output over the lifetime of the mission, an exquisite understanding of the instrumental performance of JWST is needed as early in the mission as possible. In this paper, we describe our 55 hr Early Release Science Program that will utilize all four JWST instruments to extend the characterization of planetary-mass companions to ∼15 μm as well as image a circumstellar disk in the mid-infrared with unprecedented sensitivity. Our program will also assess the performance of the observatory in the key modes expected to be commonly used for exoplanet direct imaging and spectroscopy, optimize data calibration and processing, and generate representative data sets that will enable a broad user base to effectively plan for general observing programs in future Cycles.
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| 29. |
- James, Sarah-Naomi, et al.
(author)
-
A population-based study of head injury, cognitive function and pathological markers.
- 2021
-
In: Annals of clinical and translational neurology. - : Wiley. - 2328-9503. ; 8:4, s. 842-856
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To assess associations between head injury (HI) with loss of consciousness (LOC), ageing and markers of later-life cerebral pathology; and to explore whether those effects may help explain subtle cognitive deficits in dementia-free individuals.Participants (n=502, age=69-71) from the 1946 British Birth Cohort underwent cognitive testing (subtests of Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite), 18 F-florbetapir Aβ-PET and MR imaging. Measures include Aβ-PET status, brain, hippocampal and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volumes, normal appearing white matter (NAWM) microstructure, Alzheimer's disease (AD)-related cortical thickness, and serum neurofilament light chain (NFL). LOC HI metrics include HI occurring: (i) >15years prior to the scan (ii) anytime up to age 71.Compared to those with no evidence of an LOC HI, only those reporting an LOC HI>15years prior (16%, n=80) performed worse on cognitive tests at age 69-71, taking into account premorbid cognition, particularly on the digit-symbol substitution test (DSST). Smaller brain volume (BV) and adverse NAWM microstructural integrity explained 30% and 16% of the relationship between HI and DSST, respectively. We found no evidence that LOC HI was associated with Aβ load, hippocampal volume, WMH volume, AD-related cortical thickness or NFL (all p>0.01).Having a LOC HI aged 50's and younger was linked with lower later-life cognitive function at age ~70 than expected. This may reflect a damaging but small impact of HI; explained in part by smaller BV and different microstructure pathways but not via pathology related to AD (amyloid, hippocampal volume, AD cortical thickness) or ongoing neurodegeneration (serum NFL).
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| 30. |
- Klimstra, David S., et al.
(author)
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Pathology reporting of neuroendocrine tumors : application of the Delphic consensus process to the development of a minimum pathology data set
- 2010
-
In: American Journal of Surgical Pathology. - 0147-5185 .- 1532-0979. ; 34:3, s. 300-313
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Epithelial neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) have been the subject of much debate regarding their optimal classification. Although multiple systems of nomenclature, grading, and staging have been proposed, none has achieved universal acceptance. To help define the underlying common features of these classification systems and to identify the minimal pathology data that should be reported to ensure consistent clinical management and reproducibility of data from therapeutic trials, a multidisciplinary team of physicians interested in NETs was assembled. At a group meeting, the participants discussed a series of "yes" or "no" questions related to the pathology of NETs and the minimal data to be included in the reports. After discussion, anonymous votes were taken, using the Delphic principle that 80% agreement on a vote of either yes or no would define a consensus. Questions that failed to achieve a consensus were rephrased once or twice and discussed, and additional votes were taken. Of 108 questions, 91 were answerable either yes or no by more than 80% of the participants. There was agreement about the importance of proliferation rate for tumor grading, the landmarks to use for staging, the prognostic factors assessable by routine histology that should be reported, the potential for tumors to progress biologically with metastasis, and the current status of advanced immunohistochemical and molecular testing for treatment-related biomarkers. The lack of utility of a variety of immunohistochemical stains and pathologic findings was also agreed upon. A consensus could not be reached for the remaining 17 questions, which included both minor points related to extent of disease assessment and some major areas such as terminology, routine immunohistochemical staining for general neuroendocrine markers, use of Ki67 staining to assess proliferation, and the relationship of tumor grade to degree of differentiation. On the basis of the results of the Delphic voting, a minimum pathology data set was developed. Although there remains disagreement among experts about the specific classification system that should be used, there is agreement about the fundamental pathology data that should be reported. Examination of the areas of disagreement reveals significant opportunities for collaborative study to resolve unanswered questions.
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| 31. |
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| 32. |
- Margolskee, Alison, et al.
(author)
-
IMI - Oral biopharmaceutics tools project - Evaluation of bottom-up PBPK prediction success part 2 : An introduction to the simulation exercise and overview of results
- 2017
-
In: European Journal of Pharmaceutical Sciences. - : Elsevier BV. - 0928-0987 .- 1879-0720. ; 96, s. 610-625
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Orally administered drugs are subject to a number of barriers impacting bioavailability (F-oral), causing challenges during drug and formulation development. Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling can help during drug and formulation development by providing quantitative predictions through a systems approach. The performance of three available PBPK software packages (GI-Sim, Simcyp (R), and GastroPlus (TM)) were evaluated by comparing simulated and observed pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters. Since the availability of input parameters was heterogeneous and highly variable, caution is required when interpreting the results of this exercise. Additionally, this prospective simulation exercise may not be representative of prospective modelling in industry, as API information was limited to sparse details. 43 active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from the OrBiTo database were selected for the exercise. Over 4000 simulation output files were generated, representing over 2550 study arm-institution-software combinations and approximately 600 human clinical study arms simulated with overlap. 84% of the simulated study arms represented administration of immediate release formulations, 11% prolonged or delayed release, and 5% intravenous (i.v.). Higher percentages of i.v. predicted area under the curve (AUC) were within two-fold of observed (52.9%) compared to per oral (p.o.) (37.2%), however, F-oral and relative AUC (F-rel) between p.o. formulations and solutions were generally well predicted (64.7% and 75.0%). Predictive performance declined progressing from i.v. to solution and immediate release tablet, indicating the compounding error with each layer of complexity. Overall performance was comparable to previous large-scale evaluations. A general overprediction of AUC was observed with average fold error (AFE) of 1.56 over all simulations. AFE ranged from 0.0361 to 64.0 across the 43 APIs, with 25 showing overpredictions. Discrepancies between software packages were observed for a few APIs, the largest being 606, 171, and 81.7-fold differences in AFE between SimCYP and GI-Sim, however average performance was relatively consistent across the three software platforms.
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| 33. |
- Mehrtens, Nicola, et al.
(author)
-
The XMM Cluster Survey : optical analysis methodology and the first data release
- 2012
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 423:2, s. 1024-1052
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The XMM Cluster Survey (XCS) is a serendipitous search for galaxy clusters using all publicly available data in the XMMNewton Science Archive. Its main aims are to measure cosmological parameters and trace the evolution of X-ray scaling relations. In this paper we present the first data release from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS-DR1). This consists of 503 optically confirmed, serendipitously detected, X-ray clusters. Of these clusters, 256 are new to the literature and 357 are new X-ray discoveries. We present 463 clusters with a redshift estimate (0.06 < z < 1.46), including 261 clusters with spectroscopic redshifts. The remainder have photometric redshifts. In addition, we have measured X-ray temperatures (TX) for 401 clusters (0.4 < TX < 14.7 keV). We highlight seven interesting subsamples of XCS-DR1 clusters: (i) 10 clusters at high redshift (z > 1.0, including a new spectroscopically confirmed cluster at z= 1.01); (ii) 66 clusters with high TX (>5 keV); (iii) 130 clusters/groups with low TX (<2 keV); (iv) 27 clusters with measured TX values in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Stripe 82 co-add region; (v) 77 clusters with measured TX values in the Dark Energy Survey region; (vi) 40 clusters detected with sufficient counts to permit mass measurements (under the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium); (vii) 104 clusters that can be used for applications such as the derivation of cosmological parameters and the measurement of cluster scaling relations. The X-ray analysis methodology used to construct and analyse the XCS-DR1 cluster sample has been presented in a companion paper, Lloyd-Davies et al.
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
- Muirhead, Philip, et al.
(author)
-
Characterizing the Cool KOIs. VI. H- and K-band Spectra of Kepler M Dwarf Planet-candidate Hosts
- 2014
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 213:1, s. 5-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present H - and K -band spectra for late-type Kepler Objects of Interest (the "Cool KOIs"): low-mass stars with transiting-planet candidates discovered by NASA’s Kepler Mission that are listed on the NASA Exoplanet Archive. We acquired spectra of 103 Cool KOIs and used the indices and calibrations of Rojas-Ayala et al. to determine their spectral types, stellar effective temperatures, and metallicities, significantly augmenting previously published values. We interpolate our measured effective temperatures and metallicities onto evolutionary isochrones to determine stellar masses, radii, luminosities, and distances, assuming the stars have settled onto the main sequence. As a choice of isochrones, we use a new suite of Dartmouth predictions that reliably include mid-to-late M dwarf stars. We identify five M4V stars: KOI-961 (confirmed as Kepler 42), KOI-2704, KOI-2842, KOI-4290, and the secondary component to visual binary KOI-1725, which we call KOI-1725 B. We also identify a peculiar star, KOI-3497, which has Na and Ca lines consistent with a dwarf star but CO lines consistent with a giant. Visible-wavelength adaptive optics imaging reveals two objects within a 1 arcsec diameter; however, the objects’ colors are peculiar. The spectra and properties presented in this paper serve as a resource for prioritizing follow-up observations and planet validation efforts for the Cool KOIs and are all available for download online using the "data behind the figure" feature.
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| 36. |
- Rodgers, Paul, et al.
(author)
-
The Lancaster Care Charter
- 2019
-
In: Design Issues. - : MIT Press - Journals. - 0747-9360 .- 1531-4790. ; 35:1, s. 73-77
-
Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In the fall of 1991 the Munich Design Charter was published in Design Issues. This charter was written as a design-led “call to arms” on the future nations and boundaries of Europe. The signatories of the Munich Design Charter saw the problem of Europe, at that time, as fundamentally a problem of form that should draw on the creativity and expertise of design. Likewise, the Does Design Care…? workshop held at Imagination, Lancaster University in the autumn of 2017 brought together a multidisciplinary group of people from 16 nations across 5 continents, who, at a critical moment in design discourse saw a problem with the future of Care. The Lancaster Care Charter has been written in response to the vital question “Does Design Care…?” and via a series of conversations, stimulated by a range of presentations that explored a range of provocations, insights and more questions, provides answers for the contemporary context of Care. With nation and boundary now erased by the flow of Capital the Charter aims to address the complex and urgent challenges for Care as both the future possible and the responsibility of design. The Lancaster Care Charter presents a collective vision and sets out new pragmatic encounters for the design of Care and the care of Design.
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| 37. |
- Sutherland, William J., et al.
(author)
-
A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2016
- 2016
-
In: Trends in Ecology & Evolution. - : Elsevier BV. - 0169-5347 .- 1872-8383. ; 31:1, s. 44-53
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents the results of our seventh annual horizon scan, in which we aimed to identify issues that could have substantial effects on global biological diversity in the future, but are not currently widely well known or understood within the conservation community. Fifteen issues were identified by a team that included researchers, practitioners, professional horizon scanners, and journalists. The topics include use of managed bees as transporters of biological control agents, artificial superintelligence, electric pulse trawling, testosterone in the aquatic environment, building artificial oceanic islands, and the incorporation of ecological civilization principles into government policies in China.
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| 38. |
- Thompson, Robin N., et al.
(author)
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Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies
- 2020
-
In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 287:1932
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts: (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
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| 39. |
- van der Harst, Pim, et al.
(author)
-
Seventy-five genetic loci influencing the human red blood cell
- 2012
-
In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 492:7429, s. 369-375
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anaemia is a chief determinant of global ill health, contributing to cognitive impairment, growth retardation and impaired physical capacity. To understand further the genetic factors influencing red blood cells, we carried out a genome-wide association study of haemoglobin concentration and related parameters in up to 135,367 individuals. Here we identify 75 independent genetic loci associated with one or more red blood cell phenotypes at P < 10(-8), which together explain 4-9% of the phenotypic variance per trait. Using expression quantitative trait loci and bioinformatic strategies, we identify 121 candidate genes enriched in functions relevant to red blood cell biology. The candidate genes are expressed preferentially in red blood cell precursors, and 43 have haematopoietic phenotypes in Mus musculus or Drosophila melanogaster. Through open-chromatin and coding-variant analyses we identify potential causal genetic variants at 41 loci. Our findings provide extensive new insights into genetic mechanisms and biological pathways controlling red blood cell formation and function.
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| 40. |
- Wang, Yufei, et al.
(author)
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Rare variants of large effect in BRCA2 and CHEK2 affect risk of lung cancer
- 2014
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 46:7, s. 736-741
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We conducted imputation to the 1000 Genomes Project of four genome-wide association studies of lung cancer in populations of European ancestry (11,348 cases and 15,861 controls) and genotyped an additional 10,246 cases and 38,295 controls for follow-up. We identified large-effect genome-wide associations for squamous lung cancer with the rare variants BRCA2 p.Lys3326X (rs11571833, odds ratio (OR) = 2.47, P = 4.74 x 10(-20)) and CHEK2 p.Ile157Thr (rs17879961, OR = 0.38, P = 1.27 x 10(-13)). We also showed an association between common variation at 3q28 (TP63, rs13314271, OR = 1.13, P = 7.22 x 10(-10)) and lung adenocarcinoma that had been previously reported only in Asians. These findings provide further evidence for inherited genetic susceptibility to lung cancer and its biological basis. Additionally, our analysis demonstrates that imputation can identify rare disease-causing variants with substantive effects on cancer risk from preexisting genome-wide association study data.
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- Waterton, John C., et al.
(author)
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Repeatability and reproducibility of longitudinal relaxation rate in 12 small-animal MRI systems
- 2019
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In: Magnetic Resonance Imaging. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-5894 .- 0730-725X. ; 59, s. 121-129
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Many translational MR biomarkers derive from measurements of the water proton longitudinal relaxation rate R 1 , but evidence for between-site reproducibility of R 1 in small-animal MRI is lacking. Objective: To assess R 1 repeatability and multi-site reproducibility in phantoms for preclinical MRI. Methods: R 1 was measured by saturation recovery in 2% agarose phantoms with five nickel chloride concentrations in 12 magnets at 5 field strengths in 11 centres on two different occasions within 1–13 days. R 1 was analysed in three different regions of interest, giving 360 measurements in total. Root-mean-square repeatability and reproducibility coefficients of variation (CoV) were calculated. Propagation of reproducibility errors into 21 translational MR measurements and biomarkers was estimated. Relaxivities were calculated. Dynamic signal stability was also measured. Results: CoV for day-to-day repeatability (N = 180 regions of interest) was 2.34% and for between-centre reproducibility (N = 9 centres) was 1.43%. Mostly, these do not propagate to biologically significant between-centre error, although a few R 1 -based MR biomarkers were found to be quite sensitive even to such small errors in R 1 , notably in myocardial fibrosis, in white matter, and in oxygen-enhanced MRI. The relaxivity of aqueous Ni 2+ in 2% agarose varied between 0.66 s −1 mM −1 at 3 T and 0.94 s −1 mM −1 at 11.7T. Interpretation: While several factors affect the reproducibility of R 1 -based MR biomarkers measured preclinically, between-centre propagation of errors arising from intrinsic equipment irreproducibility should in most cases be small. However, in a few specific cases exceptional efforts might be required to ensure R 1 -reproducibility.
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