1. |
- Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2011
- 2012
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In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
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2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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4. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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5. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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9. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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11. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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12. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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13. |
- Wang, HD, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: Lancet (London, England). - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 388:10053, s. 1725-1774
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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14. |
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15. |
- Ackley, K., et al.
(author)
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Observational constraints on the optical and near-infrared emission from the neutron star-black hole binary merger candidate S190814bv
- 2020
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 643
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. Gravitational wave (GW) astronomy has rapidly reached maturity, becoming a fundamental observing window for modern astrophysics. The coalescences of a few tens of black hole (BH) binaries have been detected, while the number of events possibly including a neutron star (NS) is still limited to a few. On 2019 August 14, the LIGO and Virgo interferometers detected a high-significance event labelled S190814bv. A preliminary analysis of the GW data suggests that the event was likely due to the merger of a compact binary system formed by a BH and a NS.Aims. In this paper, we present our extensive search campaign aimed at uncovering the potential optical and near infrared electromagnetic counterpart of S190814bv. We found no convincing electromagnetic counterpart in our data. We therefore use our non-detection to place limits on the properties of the putative outflows that could have been produced by the binary during and after the merger.Methods. Thanks to the three-detector observation of S190814bv, and given the characteristics of the signal, the LIGO and Virgo Collaborations delivered a relatively narrow localisation in low latency - a 50% (90%) credible area of 5 deg(2) (23 deg(2)) - despite the relatively large distance of 26752 Mpc. ElectromagNetic counterparts of GRAvitational wave sources at the VEry Large Telescope collaboration members carried out an intensive multi-epoch, multi-instrument observational campaign to identify the possible optical and near infrared counterpart of the event. In addition, the ATLAS, GOTO, GRAWITA-VST, Pan-STARRS, and VINROUGE projects also carried out a search on this event. In this paper, we describe the combined observational campaign of these groups.Results. Our observations allow us to place limits on the presence of any counterpart and discuss the implications for the kilonova (KN), which was possibly generated by this NS-BH merger, and for the strategy of future searches. The typical depth of our wide-field observations, which cover most of the projected sky localisation probability (up to 99.8%, depending on the night and filter considered), is r similar to 22 (resp. K similar to 21) in the optical (resp. near infrared). We reach deeper limits in a subset of our galaxy-targeted observations, which cover a total similar to 50% of the galaxy-mass-weighted localisation probability. Altogether, our observations allow us to exclude a KN with large ejecta mass M greater than or similar to 0.1 M-circle dot to a high (> 90%) confidence, and we can exclude much smaller masses in a sub-sample of our observations. This disfavours the tidal disruption of the neutron star during the merger.Conclusions. Despite the sensitive instruments involved in the campaign, given the distance of S190814bv, we could not reach sufficiently deep limits to constrain a KN comparable in luminosity to AT 2017gfo on a large fraction of the localisation probability. This suggests that future (likely common) events at a few hundred megaparsecs will be detected only by large facilities with both a high sensitivity and large field of view. Galaxy-targeted observations can reach the needed depth over a relevant portion of the localisation probability with a smaller investment of resources, but the number of galaxies to be targeted in order to get a fairly complete coverage is large, even in the case of a localisation as good as that of this event.
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16. |
- Smartt, S. J., et al.
(author)
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A kilonova as the electromagnetic counterpart to a gravitational-wave source
- 2017
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 551:7678, s. 75-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Gravitational waves were discovered with the detection of binary black-hole mergers(1) and they should also be detectable from lower-mass neutron-star mergers. These are predicted to eject material rich in heavy radioactive isotopes that can power an electromagnetic signal. This signal is luminous at optical and infrared wavelengths and is called a kilonova(2-5). The gravitational-wave source GW170817 arose from a binary neutron-star merger in the nearby Universe with a relatively well confined sky position and distance estimate(6). Here we report observations and physical modelling of a rapidly fading electromagnetic transient in the galaxy NGC 4993, which is spatially coincident with GW170817 and with a weak, short.-ray burst(7,8). The transient has physical parameters that broadly match the theoretical predictions of blue kilonovae from neutron-star mergers. The emitted electromagnetic radiation can be explained with an ejected mass of 0.04 +/- 0.01 solar masses, with an opacity of less than 0.5 square centimetres per gram, at a velocity of 0.2 +/- 0.1 times light speed. The power source is constrained to have a power-law slope of -1.2 +/- 0.3, consistent with radioactive powering from r-process nuclides. (The r-process is a series of neutron capture reactions that synthesise many of the elements heavier than iron.) We identify line features in the spectra that are consistent with light r-process elements (atomic masses of 90-140). As it fades, the transient rapidly becomes red, and a higher-opacity, lanthanide-rich ejecta component may contribute to the emission. This indicates that neutron-star mergers produce gravitational waves and radioactively powered kilonovae, and are a nucleosynthetic source of the r-process elements.
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17. |
- Kinyoki, DK, et al.
(author)
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Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
- 2020
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 577:7789, s. 231-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications.
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18. |
- Smartt, S. J., et al.
(author)
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PESSTO : survey description and products from the first data release by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects
- 2015
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 579
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. The Public European Southern Observatory Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO) began as a public spectroscopic survey in April 2012. PESSTO classifies transients from publicly available sources and wide-field surveys, and selects science targets for detailed spectroscopic and photometric follow-up. PESSTO runs for nine months of the year, January - April and August - December inclusive, and typically has allocations of 10 nights per month. Aims. We describe the data reduction strategy and data products that are publicly available through the ESO archive as the Spectroscopic Survey data release 1 (SSDR1). Methods. PESSTO uses the New Technology Telescope with the instruments EFOSC2 and SOFI to provide optical and NIR spectroscopy and imaging. We target supernovae and optical transients brighter than 20.5(m) for classification. Science targets are selected for follow-up based on the PESSTO science goal of extending knowledge of the extremes of the supernova population. We use standard EFOSC2 set-ups providing spectra with resolutions of 13-18 angstrom between 3345-9995 angstrom. A subset of the brighter science targets are selected for SOFI spectroscopy with the blue and red grisms (0.935-2.53 mu m and resolutions 23-33 angstrom) and imaging with broadband JHK(s) filters. Results. This first data release (SSDR1) contains flux calibrated spectra from the first year (April 2012-2013). A total of 221 confirmed supernovae were classified, and we released calibrated optical spectra and classifications publicly within 24 h of the data being taken (via WISeREP). The data in SSDR1 replace those released spectra. They have more reliable and quantifiable flux calibrations, correction for telluric absorption, and are made available in standard ESO Phase 3 formats. We estimate the absolute accuracy of the flux calibrations for EFOSC2 across the whole survey in SSDR1 to be typically similar to 15%, although a number of spectra will have less reliable absolute flux calibration because of weather and slit losses. Acquisition images for each spectrum are available which, in principle, can allow the user to refine the absolute flux calibration. The standard NIR reduction process does not produce high accuracy absolute spectrophotometry but synthetic photometry with accompanying JHK(s) imaging can improve this. Whenever possible, reduced SOFI images are provided to allow this. Conclusions. Future data releases will focus on improving the automated flux calibration of the data products. The rapid turnaround between discovery and classification and access to reliable pipeline processed data products has allowed early science papers in the first few months of the survey.
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19. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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20. |
- Hudson, Thomas J., et al.
(author)
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International network of cancer genome projects
- 2010
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 464:7291, s. 993-998
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) was launched to coordinate large-scale cancer genome studies in tumours from 50 different cancer types and/or subtypes that are of clinical and societal importance across the globe. Systematic studies of more than 25,000 cancer genomes at the genomic, epigenomic and transcriptomic levels will reveal the repertoire of oncogenic mutations, uncover traces of the mutagenic influences, define clinically relevant subtypes for prognosis and therapeutic management, and enable the development of new cancer therapies.
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21. |
- Agudo, I., et al.
(author)
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Panning for gold, but finding helium: Discovery of the ultra-stripped supernova SN 2019wxt from gravitational-wave follow-up observations
- 2023
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 675
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the results from multi-wavelength observations of a transient discovered during an intensive follow-up campaign of S191213g, a gravitational wave (GW) event reported by the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration as a possible binary neutron star merger in a low latency search. This search yielded SN 2019wxt, a young transient in a galaxy whose sky position (in the 80% GW contour) and distance (∼150 Mpc) were plausibly compatible with the localisation uncertainty of the GW event. Initially, the transienta's tightly constrained age, its relatively faint peak magnitude (Mi ∼ -16.7 mag), and the r-band decline rate of ∼1 mag per 5 days appeared suggestive of a compact binary merger. However, SN 2019wxt spectroscopically resembled a type Ib supernova, and analysis of the optical-near-infrared evolution rapidly led to the conclusion that while it could not be associated with S191213g, it nevertheless represented an extreme outcome of stellar evolution. By modelling the light curve, we estimated an ejecta mass of only ∼0.1 M·, with 56Ni comprising ∼20% of this. We were broadly able to reproduce its spectral evolution with a composition dominated by helium and oxygen, with trace amounts of calcium. We considered various progenitor channels that could give rise to the observed properties of SN 2019wxt and concluded that an ultra-stripped origin in a binary system is the most likely explanation. Disentangling genuine electromagnetic counterparts to GW events from transients such as SN 2019wxt soon after discovery is challenging: in a bid to characterise this level of contamination, we estimated the rate of events with a volumetric rate density comparable to that of SN 2019wxt and found that around one such event per week can occur within the typical GW localisation area of O4 alerts out to a luminosity distance of 500 Mpc, beyond which it would become fainter than the typical depth of current electromagnetic follow-up campaigns.
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23. |
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24. |
- Kyu, Hmwe H, et al.
(author)
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Global and National Burden of Diseases and Injuries Among Children and Adolescents Between 1990 and 2013 : Findings From the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study.
- 2016
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In: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 170:3, s. 267-287
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce.OBJECTIVE: To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study.EVIDENCE REVIEW: Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates.FINDINGS: Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world's deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world's diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed.
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25. |
- Schulze, S., et al.
(author)
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GRB 120422A/SN 2012bz : Bridging the gap between low- and high-luminosity gamma-ray bursts
- 2014
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 566
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context. At low redshift, a handful of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been discovered with luminosities that are substantially lower (L-iso less than or similar to 10(48.5) erg s(-1)) than the average of more distant ones (L-iso greater than or similar to 10(49.5) erg s(-1)). It has been suggested that the properties of several low-luminosity (low-L) GRBs are due to shock break-out, as opposed to the emission from ultrarelativistic jets. This has led to much debate about how the populations are connected. Aims. The burst at redshift z = 0.283 from 2012 April 22 is one of the very few examples of intermediate-L GRBs with a gamma-ray luminosity of L-iso similar to 10(49.6-49.9) erg s(-1) that have been detected up to now. With the robust detection of its accompanying supernova SN 2012bz, it has the potential to answer important questions on the origin of low-and high-L GRBs and the GRB-SN connection. Methods. We carried out a spectroscopy campaign using medium-and low-resolution spectrographs with 6-10-m class telescopes, which covered a time span of 37.3 days, and a multi-wavelength imaging campaign, which ranged from radio to X-ray energies over a duration of similar to 270 days. Furthermore, we used a tuneable filter that is centred at H alpha to map star-formation in the host and the surrounding galaxies. We used these data to extract and model the properties of different radiation components and fitted the spectral energy distribution to extract the properties of the host galaxy. Results. Modelling the light curve and spectral energy distribution from the radio to the X-rays revealed that the blast wave expanded with an initial Lorentz factor of Gamma(0) similar to 50, which is a low value in comparison to high-L GRBs, and that the afterglow had an exceptionally low peak luminosity density of less than or similar to 2 x 10(30) erg s(-1) Hz(-1) in the sub-mm. Because of the weak afterglow component, we were able to recover the signature of a shock break-out in an event that was not a genuine low-L GRB for the first time. At 1.4 hr after the burst, the stellar envelope had a blackbody temperature of k(B)T similar to 16 eV and a radius of similar to 7 x 10(13) cm (both in the observer frame). The accompanying SN 2012bz reached a peak luminosity of M-V = -19.7 mag, which is 0.3 mag more luminous than SN 1998bw. The synthesised nickel mass of 0.58 M-circle dot, ejecta mass of 5.87 M-circle dot, and kinetic energy of 4.10x10(52) erg were among the highest for GRB-SNe, which makes it the most luminous spectroscopically confirmed SN to date. Nebular emission lines at the GRB location were visible, which extend from the galaxy nucleus to the explosion site. The host and the explosion site had close-to-solar metallicity. The burst occurred in an isolated star-forming region with an SFR that is 1/10 of that in the galaxy's nucleus. Conclusions. While the prompt gamma-ray emission points to a high-L GRB, the weak afterglow and the low Gamma(0) were very atypical for such a burst. Moreover, the detection of the shock break-out signature is a new quality for high-L GRBs. So far, shock break-outs were exclusively detected for low-L GRBs, while GRB 120422A had an intermediate L-iso of similar to 10(49.6-49.9) erg s(-1). Therefore, we conclude that GRB 120422A was a transition object between low-and high-L GRBs, which supports the failed-jet model that connects low-L GRBs that are driven by shock break-outs and high-L GRBs that are powered by ultra-relativistic jets.
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26. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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27. |
- Galbany, L., et al.
(author)
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Evidence for a Chandrasekhar-mass explosion in the Ca-strong 1991bg-like type la supernova 2016hnk
- 2019
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 630
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims. We present a comprehensive dataset of optical and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy of type Ia supernova (SN) 2016hnk, combined with integral field spectroscopy (IFS) of its host galaxy, MCG -01-06-070, and nearby environment. Our goal with this complete dataset is to understand the nature of this peculiar object.Methods. Properties of the SN local environment are characterized by means of single stellar population synthesis applied to IFS observations taken two years after the SN exploded. We performed detailed analyses of SN photometric data by studying its peculiar light and color curves. SN 2016hnk spectra were compared to other 1991bg-like SNe Ia, 2002es-like SNe Ia, and Ca-rich transients. In addition, we used abundance stratification modeling to identify the various spectral features in the early phase spectral sequence and also compared the dataset to a modified non-LTE model previously produced for the sublumnious SN 1999by.Results. SN 2016hnk is consistent with being a subluminous (M-B = -16.7 mag, S-BV =0.43 +/- 0.03), highly reddened object. The IFS of its host galaxy reveals both a significant amount of dust at the SN location, residual star formation, and a high proportion of old stellar populations in the local environment compared to other locations in the galaxy, which favors an old progenitor for SN 2016hnk. Inspection of a nebular spectrum obtained one year after maximum contains two narrow emission lines attributed to the forbidden [Ca II] lambda lambda 7291,7324 doublet with a Doppler shift of 700 km s(-1). Based on various observational diagnostics, we argue that the progenitor of SN 2016hnk was likely a near Chandrasekhar-mass (M-Ch) carbon-oxygen white dwarf that produced 0.108 M-circle dot of Ni-56. Our modeling suggests that the narrow [Ca II] features observed in the nebular spectrum are associated with Ca-48 from electron capture during the explosion, which is expected to occur only in white dwarfs that explode near or at the M-Ch limit.
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28. |
- Smartt, S. J., et al.
(author)
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Pan-STARRS and PESSTO search for an optical counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave source GW150914
- 2016
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 462:4, s. 4094-4116
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We searched for an optical counterpart to the first gravitational-wave source discovered by LIGO (GW150914), using a combination of the Pan-STARRS1 wide-field telescope and the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey of Transient Objects (PESSTO) spectroscopic follow-up programme. As the final LIGO sky maps changed during analysis, the total probability of the source being spatially coincident with our fields was finally only 4.2 per cent. Therefore, we discuss our results primarily as a demonstration of the survey capability of Pan-STARRS and spectroscopic capability of PESSTO. We mapped out 442 deg(2) of the northern sky region of the initial map. We discovered 56 astrophysical transients over a period of 41 d from the discovery of the source. Of these, 19 were spectroscopically classified and a further 13 have host galaxy redshifts. All transients appear to be fairly normal supernovae (SNe) and AGN variability and none is obviously linked with GW150914. We illustrate the sensitivity of our survey by defining parametrized light curves with time-scales of 4, 20 and 40 d and use the sensitivity of the Pan-STARRS1 images to set limits on the luminosities of possible sources. The Pan-STARRS1 images reach limiting magnitudes of iP1 = 19.2, 20.0 and 20.8, respectively, for the three time-scales. For long time-scale parametrized light curves (with full width half-maximum similar or equal to 40 d), we set upper limits of M-i <= -17.2(+1.4)(-0.9) if the distance to GW150914 is D-L = 400 +/- 200 Mpc. The number of Type Ia SN we find in the survey is similar to that expected from the cosmic SN rate, indicating a reasonably complete efficiency in recovering SN like transients out to D-L = 400 +/- 200 Mpc.
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29. |
- Davis, S., et al.
(author)
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SN 2013ai : A Link between Hydrogen-rich and Hydrogen-poor Core-collapse Supernovae
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 909:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a study of the optical and near-infrared (NIR) spectra of SN 2013ai along with its light curves. These data range from discovery until 380 days after explosion. SN 2013ai is a fast declining Type II supernova (SN II) with an unusually long rise time, 18.9 2.7 days in the V-band, and a bright V-band peak absolute magnitude of -18.7 0.06 mag. The spectra are dominated by hydrogen features in the optical and NIR. The spectral features of SN 2013ai are unique in their expansion velocities, which, when compared to large samples of SNe II, are more than 1,000 km s(-1) faster at 50 days past explosion. In addition, the long rise time of the light curve more closely resembles SNe IIb rather than SNe II. If SN 2013ai is coeval with a nearby compact cluster, we infer a progenitor zero-age main-sequence mass of similar to 17 M. After performing light-curve modeling, we find that SN 2013ai could be the result of the explosion of a star with little hydrogen mass, a large amount of synthesized Ni-56, 0.3-0.4 M, and an explosion energy of 2.5-3.0 x 10(51) erg. The density structure and expansion velocities of SN 2013ai are similar to those of the prototypical SN IIb, SN 1993J. However, SN 2013ai shows no strong helium features in the optical, likely due to the presence of a dense core that prevents the majority of gamma-rays from escaping to excite helium. Our analysis suggests that SN 2013ai could be a link between SNe II and stripped-envelope SNe.
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30. |
- Leloudas, G., et al.
(author)
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The superluminous transient ASASSN-15lh as a tidal disruption event from a Kerr black hole
- 2016
-
In: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 1:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- When a star passes within the tidal radius of a supermassive black hole, it will be torn apart1. For a star with the mass of the Sun (M-circle dot) and a non-spinning black hole with a mass <10(8)M(circle dot), the tidal radius lies outside the black hole event horizon2 and the disruption results in a luminous flare(3-6). Here we report observations over a period of ten months of a transient, hitherto interpreted(7) as a superluminous supernova(8). Our data show that the transient rebrightened substantially in the ultraviolet and that the spectrum went through three different spectroscopic phases without ever becoming nebular. Our observations are more consistent with a tidal disruption event than a superluminous supernova because of the temperature evolution(6), the presence of highly ionized CNO gas in the line of sight(9) and our improved localization of the transient in the nucleus of a passive galaxy, where the presence of massive stars is highly unlikely(10,11). While the supermassive black hole has a mass >10(8)M(circle dot)(12,13), a star with the same mass as the Sun could be disrupted outside the event horizon if the black hole were spinning rapidly(14). The rapid spin and high black hole mass can explain the high luminosity of this event.
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31. |
- Stritzinger, M. D., et al.
(author)
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The carbon-rich type Ic supernova 2016adj in the iconic dust lane of Centaurus A : Potential signatures of an interaction with circumstellar hydrogen
- 2024
-
In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 686
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a comprehensive data set of supernova (SN) 2016adj located within the central dust lane of Centaurus A. SN 2016adj is significantly reddened and after correcting the peak apparent B-band magnitude (mB = 17.48 ± 0.05) for Milky Way reddening and our inferred host-galaxy reddening parameters (i.e., RVhost = 5.7±0.7 and AVhost = 6.3 ± 0.2 mag), we estimated it reached a peak absolute magnitude of MB ∼ −18. A detailed inspection of the optical and near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic time series reveals a carbon-rich SN Ic and not a SN Ib/IIb as previously suggested in the literature. The NIR spectra show prevalent carbon-monoxide formation occurring already by +41 days past B-band maximum, which is ≈11 days earlier than previously reported in the literature for this object. Interestingly, around two months past maximum, the NIR spectrum of SN 2016adj begins to exhibit H features, with a +97 days medium resolution spectrum revealing both Paschen and Bracket lines with absorption minima of ∼2000 km s−1, full-width-half-maximum emission velocities of ∼1000 km s−1, and emission line ratios consistent with a dense emission region. We speculate that these attributes are due to a circumstellar interaction (CSI) between the rapidly expanding SN ejecta and a H-rich shell of material that formed during the pre-SN phase. A bolometric light curve was constructed and a semi-analytical model fit suggests the SN synthesized 0.5 M⊙ of 56Ni and ejected 4.7 M⊙ of material, though these values should be approached with caution given the large uncertainties associated with the adopted reddening parameters and known light echo emission. Finally, inspection of the Hubble Space Telescope archival data yielded no progenitor detection.
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32. |
- Tanvir, N. R., et al.
(author)
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The Emergence of a Lanthanide-rich Kilonova Following the Merger of Two Neutron Stars
- 2017
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 848:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the discovery and monitoring of the near-infrared counterpart (AT2017gfo) of a binary neutron-star merger event detected as a gravitational wave source by Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)/Virgo (GW170817) and as a short gamma-ray burst by Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and Integral SPI-ACS (GRB 170817A). The evolution of the transient light is consistent with predictions for the behavior of a kilonova/ macronova powered by the radioactive decay of massive neutron-rich nuclides created via r-process nucleosynthesis in the neutron-star ejecta. In particular, evidence for this scenario is found from broad features seen in Hubble Space Telescope infrared spectroscopy, similar to those predicted for lanthanide-dominated ejecta, and the much slower evolution in the near-infrared K-s-band compared to the optical. This indicates that the late-time light is dominated by high-opacity lanthanide-rich ejecta, suggesting nucleosynthesis to the third r-process peak (atomic masses A approximate to 195). This discovery confirms that neutron-star mergers produce kilo-/macronovae and that they are at least a major-if not the dominant-site of rapid neutron capture nucleosynthesis in the universe.
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33. |
- Levan, A. J., et al.
(author)
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The Environment of the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW170817
- 2017
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 848:2
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and Chandra imaging, combined with Very Large Telescope MUSE integral field spectroscopy of the counterpart and host galaxy of the first binary neutron star merger detected via gravitational-wave emission by LIGO and Virgo, GW170817. The host galaxy, NGC 4993, is an S0 galaxy at z - 0.009783. There is evidence for large, face-on spiral shells in continuum imaging, and edge-on spiral features visible in nebular emission lines. This suggests that NGC 4993 has undergone a relatively recent (less than or similar to 1 Gyr) dry merger. This merger may provide the fuel for a weak active nucleus seen in Chandra imaging. At the location of the counterpart, HST imaging implies there is no globular or young stellar cluster, with a limit of a few thousand solar masses for any young system. The population in the vicinity is predominantly old with less than or similar to 1% of any light arising from a population with ages <500 Myr. Both the host galaxy properties and those of the transient location are consistent with the distributions seen for short-duration gamma-ray bursts, although the source position lies well within the effective radius (r(e) similar to 3 kpc), providing an r(e)-normalized offset that is closer than similar to 90% of short GRBs. For the long delay time implied by the stellar population, this suggests that the kick velocity was significantly less than the galaxy escape velocity. We do not see any narrow host galaxy interstellar medium features within the counterpart spectrum, implying low extinction, and that the binary may lie in front of the bulk of the host galaxy.
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34. |
- Tartaglia, Leonardo, et al.
(author)
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The Early Discovery of SN 2017ahn : Signatures of Persistent Interaction in a Fast-declining Type II Supernova
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 907:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present high-cadence, comprehensive data on the nearby (D 33 Mpc) Type II supernova (SN II) 2017ahn, discovered within about one day of the explosion, from the very early phases after explosion to the nebular phase. The observables of SN 2017ahn show a significant evolution over the 470 days of our follow-up campaign, first showing prominent, narrow Balmer lines and other high-ionization features purely in emission (i.e., flash spectroscopy features), which progressively fade and lead to a spectroscopic evolution similar to that of more canonical SNe II. Over the same period, the decline of the light curves in all bands is fast, resembling the photometric evolution of linearly declining H-rich core-collapse SNe. The modeling of the light curves and early flash spectra suggests that a complex circumstellar medium surrounds the progenitor star at the time of explosion, with a first dense shell produced during the very late stages of its evolution that is swept up by the rapidly expanding ejecta within the first ~6 days of the SN evolution, while signatures of interaction are observed also at later phases. Hydrodynamical models support the scenario in which linearly declining SNe II are predicted to arise from massive yellow super- or hypergiants depleted of most of their hydrogen layers.
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35. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(author)
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Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2019
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
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36. |
- Lyman, J. D., et al.
(author)
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The optical afterglow of the short gamma-ray burst associated with GW170817
- 2018
-
In: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 2:9, s. 751-754
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The binary neutron star merger GW170817 was the first multi-messenger event observed in both gravitational and electromagnetic waves(1,2). The electromagnetic signal began approximately two seconds post-merger with a weak, short burst of gamma rays(3), which was followed over the next hours and days by the ultraviolet, optical and near-infrared emission from a radioactively powered kilonova(4-11). Later, non-thermal rising X-ray and radio emission was observed(12,13). The low luminosity of the gamma rays and the rising non-thermal flux from the source at late times could indicate that we are outside the opening angle of the beamed relativistic jet. Alternatively, the emission could be arising from a cocoon of material formed from the interaction between a jet and the merger ejecta(13-15). Here we present late-time optical detections and deep near-infrared limits on the emission from GW170817 at 110 days post-merger. Our new observations are at odds with expectations of late-time emission from kilonova models, being too bright and blue(16,17). Instead, the emission arises from the interaction between the relativistic ejecta of GW170817 and the interstellar medium. We show that this emission matches the expectations of a Gaussian-structured relativistic jet, which would have launched a high-luminosity, short gamma-ray burst to an aligned observer. However, other jet structure or cocoon models can also match current data-the future evolution of the afterglow will directly distinguish the origin of the emission.
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37. |
- Rousseau-Nepton, L., et al.
(author)
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SIGNALS : I. Survey description
- 2019
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 489:4, s. 5530-5546
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- SIGNALS, the Star formation, Ionized Gas, and Nebular Abundances Legacy Survey, is a large observing programme designed to investigate massive star formation and HII regions in a sample of local extended galaxies. The programme will use the imaging Fourier transform spectrograph SITELLE at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Over 355 h (54.7 nights) have been allocated beginning in fall 2018 for eight consecutive semesters. Once completed, SIGNALS will provide a statistically reliable laboratory to investigate massive star formation, including over 50 000 resolved HII regions: the largest, most complete, and homogeneous data base of spectroscopically and spatially resolved extragalactic HII regions ever assembled. For each field observed, three datacubes covering the spectral bands of the filters SN1 (363386 nm), SN2 (482-513 nm), and SN3 (647-685 nm) are gathered. The spectral resolution selected for each spectral band is 1000, 1000, and 5000, respectively. As defined, the project sample will facilitate the study of small-scale nebular physics and many other phenomena linked to star formation at a mean spatial resolution of similar to 20 pc. This survey also has considerable legacy value for additional topics, including planetary nebulae, diffuse ionized gas, and supernova remnants. The purpose of this paper is to present a general outlook of the survey, notably the observing strategy, galaxy sample, and science requirements.
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38. |
- Inserra, C., et al.
(author)
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OGLE-2013-SN-079 : A LONELY SUPERNOVA CONSISTENT WITH A HELIUM SHELL DETONATION
- 2015
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 799:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present observational data for a peculiar supernova discovered by the OGLE-IV survey and followed by the Public ESO Spectroscopic Survey for Transient Objects. The inferred redshift of z = 0.07 implies an absolute magnitude in the rest-frame I-band of M-1 similar to -17.6 mag. This places it in the luminosity range between normal Type Ia SNe and novae. Optical and near infrared spectroscopy reveal mostly Ti and Ca lines, and an unusually red color arising from strong depression of flux at rest wavelengths <5000 angstrom. To date, this is the only reported SN showing Ti-dominated spectra. The data are broadly consistent with existing models for the pure detonation of a helium shell around a low-mass CO white dwarf and double-detonation models that include a secondary detonation of a CO core following a primary detonation in an overlying helium shell.
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39. |
- Ade, Peter, et al.
(author)
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The Simons Observatory : science goals and forecasts
- 2019
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In: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Simons Observatory (SO) is a new cosmic microwave background experiment being built on Cerro Toco in Chile, due to begin observations in the early 2020s. We describe the scientific goals of the experiment, motivate the design, and forecast its performance. SO will measure the temperature and polarization anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background in six frequency bands centered at: 27, 39, 93, 145, 225 and 280 GHz. The initial con figuration of SO will have three small-aperture 0.5-m telescopes and one large-aperture 6-m telescope, with a total of 60,000 cryogenic bolometers. Our key science goals are to characterize the primordial perturbations, measure the number of relativistic species and the mass of neutrinos, test for deviations from a cosmological constant, improve our understanding of galaxy evolution, and constrain the duration of reionization. The small aperture telescopes will target the largest angular scales observable from Chile, mapping approximate to 10% of the sky to a white noise level of 2 mu K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, to measure the primordial tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, at a target level of sigma(r) = 0.003. The large aperture telescope will map approximate to 40% of the sky at arcminute angular resolution to an expected white noise level of 6 mu K-arcmin in combined 93 and 145 GHz bands, overlapping with the majority of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope sky region and partially with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. With up to an order of magnitude lower polarization noise than maps from the Planck satellite, the high-resolution sky maps will constrain cosmological parameters derived from the damping tail, gravitational lensing of the microwave background, the primordial bispectrum, and the thermal and kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects, and will aid in delensing the large-angle polarization signal to measure the tensor-to-scalar ratio. The survey will also provide a legacy catalog of 16,000 galaxy clusters and more than 20,000 extragalactic sources.
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40. |
- Lyman, J. D., et al.
(author)
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Investigating the diversity of supernovae type Iax : a MUSE and NOT spectroscopic study of their environments
- 2018
-
In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 473:1, s. 1359-1387
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- SN 2002cx-like Type Ia supernovae (also known as SNe Iax) represent one of the most numerous peculiar SN classes. They differ from normal SNe Ia by having fainter peak magnitudes, faster decline rates and lower photospheric velocities, displaying a wide diversity in these properties. We present both integral-field and long-slit visual-wavelength spectroscopy of the host galaxies and explosion sites of SNe Iax to provide constraints on their progenitor formation scenarios. The SN Iax explosion-site metallicity distribution is similar to that of core-collapse SNe and metal poor compared to either normal SNe Ia or SN 1991T-like events. Fainter members, speculated to form distinctly from brighter SN Iax, are found at a range of metallicities, extending to very metal poor environments. Although the SN Iax explosion-sites' ages and star formation rates are comparatively older and less intense than the distribution of star-forming regions across their host galaxies, we confirm the presence of young stellar populations (SPs) at explosion environments for most SNe Iax, expanded here to a larger sample. Ages of the young SPs (several x 10(7) to 10(8) yr) are consistent with predictions for young thermonuclear and electron-capture SN progenitors. The lack of extremely young SPs at the explosion sites disfavours very massive progenitors such as Wolf-Rayet explosions with significant fallback. We find weak ionized gas in the only SN Iax host without obvious signs of star formation. The source of the ionization remains ambiguous but appears unlikely to be mainly due to young, massive stars.
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41. |
- Magee, M. R., et al.
(author)
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The type Iax supernova, SN 2015H A white dwarf deflagration candidate
- 2016
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In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 589
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present results based on observations of SN 2015H which belongs to the small group of objects similar to SN 2002cx, otherwise known as type Iax supernovae. The availability of deep pre-explosion imaging allowed us to place tight constraints on the explosion epoch. Our observational campaign began approximately one day post-explosion, and extended over a period of about 150 days post maximum light, making it one of the best observed objects of this class to date. We find a peak magnitude of M-r = 17.27 +/- 0.07, and a (Delta m(15))(r) = 0.69 +/- 0.04. Comparing our observations to synthetic spectra generated from simulations of deflagrations of Chandrasekhar mass carbon-oxygen white dwarfs, we find reasonable agreement with models of weak deflagrations that result in the ejection of similar to 0.2 M-circle dot of material containing similar to 0.07 M-circle dot of Ni-56. The model light curve however, evolves more rapidly than observations, suggesting that a higher ejecta mass is to be favoured. Nevertheless, empirical modelling of the pseudo-bolometric light curve suggests that less than or similar to 0.6 M-circle dot of material was ejected, implying that the white dwarf is not completely disrupted, and that a bound remnant is a likely outcome.
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42. |
- Pursiainen, M., et al.
(author)
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SN 2023emq : A Flash-ionized Ibn Supernova with Possible C iii Emission
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 959:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- SN 2023emq is a fast-evolving transient initially classified as a rare Type Icn supernova (SN), interacting with a H- and He-free circumstellar medium (CSM) around maximum light. Subsequent spectroscopy revealed the unambiguous emergence of narrow He lines, confidently placing SN 2023emq in the more common Type Ibn class. Photometrically, SN 2023emq has several uncommon properties regardless of its class, including its extreme initial decay (faster than >90% of Type Ibn/Icn SNe) and sharp transition in the decline rate from 0.20 to 0.07 mag day−1 at +20 days. The bolometric light curve can be modeled as CSM interaction with 0.32M⊙ of ejecta and 0.12M⊙ of CSM, with 0.006M⊙ of nickel, as expected of fast, interacting SNe. Furthermore, broadband polarimetry at +8.7 days (P = 0.55% ± 0.30%) is consistent with spherical symmetry. A discovery of a transitional Type Icn/Ibn SN would be unprecedented and would give valuable insights into the nature of mass loss suffered by the progenitor just before death, but we favor an interpretation that SN 2023emq is a Type Ibn SN that exhibited flash-ionized features in the earliest spectrum, as the features are not an exact match with other Type Icn SNe to date. However, the feature at 5700 Å, in the region of C iii and N ii emission, is significantly stronger in SN 2023emq than in the few other flash-ionized Type Ibn SNe, and if it is related to C iii, it possibly implies a continuum of properties between the two classes.
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43. |
- Gudmundsson, Jón E., et al.
(author)
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The Simons Observatory : modeling optical systematics in the Large Aperture Telescope
- 2021
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In: Applied Optics. - 1559-128X .- 2155-3165. ; 60:4, s. 823-837
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present geometrical and physical optics simulation results for the Simons Observatory Large Aperture Telescope. This work was developed as part of the general design process for the telescope, allowing us to evaluate the impact of various design choices on performance metrics and potential systematic effects. The primary goal of the simulations was to evaluate the final design of the reflectors and the cold optics that are now being built. We describe nonsequential ray tracing used to inform the design of the cold optics, including absorbers internal to each optics tube. We discuss ray tracing simulations of the telescope structure that allow us to determine geometries that minimize detector loading and mitigate spurious near-field effects that have not been resolved by the internal baffling. We also describe physical optics simulations, performed over a range of frequencies and field locations, that produce estimates of monochromatic far-field beam patterns, which in turn are used to gauge general optical performance. Finally, we describe simulations that shed light on beam sidelobes from panel gap diffraction.
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44. |
- Bohm, E. R., et al.
(author)
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Collection and Reporting of Patient-reported Outcome Measures in Arthroplasty Registries: Multinational Survey and Recommendations
- 2021
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In: Clinical Orthopaedics and Related Research. - : Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health). - 0009-921X .- 1528-1132. ; 479:10, s. 2151-2166
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are validated questionnaires that are completed by patients. Arthroplasty registries vary in PROM collection and use. Current information about registry collection and use of PROMs is important to help improve methods of PROM data analysis, reporting, comparison, and use toward improving clinical practice. Questions/purposes To characterize PROM collection and use by registries, we asked: (1) What is the current practice of PROM collection by arthroplasty registries that are current or former members of the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries, and are there sufficient similarities in PROM collection between registries to enable useful international comparisons that could inform the improvement of arthroplasty care? (2) How do registries differ in PROM administration and demographic, clinical, and comorbidity index variables collected for case-mix adjustment in data analysis and reporting? (3) What quality assurance methods are used for PROMs, and how are PROM results reported and used by registries? (4) What recommendations to arthroplasty registries may improve PROM reporting and facilitate international comparisons? Methods An electronic survey was developed with questions about registry structure and collection, analysis, reporting, and use of PROM data and distributed to directors or senior administrators of 39 arthroplasty registries that were current or former members of the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries. In all, 64% (25 of 39) of registries responded and completed the survey. Missing responses from incomplete surveys were captured by contacting the registries, and up to three reminder emails were sent to nonresponding registries. Recommendations about PROM collection were drafted, revised, and approved by the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries PROMs Working Group members. Results Of the 25 registries that completed the survey, 15 collected generic PROMs, most frequently the EuroQol-5 Dimension survey; 16 collected joint-specific PROMs, most frequently the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score and Hip Disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score; and 11 registries collected a satisfaction item. Most registries administered PROM questionnaires within 3 months before and 1 year after surgery. All 16 registries that collected PROM data collected patient age, sex or gender, BMI, indication for the primary arthroplasty, reason for revision arthroplasty, and a comorbidity index, most often the American Society of Anesthesiologists classification. All 16 registries performed regular auditing and reporting of data quality, and most registries reported PROM results to hospitals and linked PROM data to other data sets such as hospital, medication, billing, and emergency care databases. Recommendations for transparent reporting of PROMs were grouped into four categories: demographic and clinical, survey administration, data analysis, and results. Conclusion Although registries differed in PROM collection and use, there were sufficient similarities that may enable useful data comparisons. The International Society of Arthroplasty Registries PROMs Working Group recommendations identify issues that may be important to most registries such as the need to make decisions about survey times and collection methods, as well as how to select generic and joint-specific surveys, handle missing data and attrition, report data, and ensure representativeness of the sample.
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45. |
- Dachlythra, Nadia, 1993-, et al.
(author)
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The Simons Observatory : Beam Characterization for the Small Aperture Telescopes
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 961:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use time-domain simulations of Jupiter observations to test and develop a beam reconstruction pipeline for the Simons Observatory Small Aperture Telescopes. The method relies on a mapmaker that estimates and subtracts correlated atmospheric noise and a beam fitting code designed to compensate for the bias caused by the mapmaker. We test our reconstruction performance for four different frequency bands against various algorithmic parameters, atmospheric conditions, and input beams. We additionally show the reconstruction quality as a function of the number of available observations and investigate how different calibration strategies affect the beam uncertainty. For all of the cases considered, we find good agreement between the fitted results and the input beam model within an ∼1.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 30–700 and an ∼0.5% error for a multipole range ℓ = 50–200. We conclude by using a harmonic-domain component separation algorithm to verify that the beam reconstruction errors and biases observed in our analysis do not significantly bias the Simons Observatory r-measurement
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46. |
- Lyman, J. D., et al.
(author)
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Hubble Space Telescope observations of the host galaxies and environments of calcium-rich supernovae
- 2016
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In: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 458:2, s. 1768-1777
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Calcium-rich supernovae (SNe) represent a significant challenge for our understanding of the fates of stellar systems. They are less luminous than other SN types and they evolve more rapidly to reveal nebular spectra dominated by strong calcium lines with weak or absent signatures of other intermediate-and iron-group elements, which are seen in other SNe. Strikingly, their explosion sites also mark them out as distinct from other SN types. Their galactocentric offset distribution is strongly skewed to very large offsets (~1/3 are offset >20 kpc), meaning they do not trace the stellar light of their hosts. Many of the suggestions to explain this extreme offset distribution have invoked the necessity for unusual formation sites such as globular clusters or dwarf satellite galaxies, which are therefore difficult to detect. Building on previous work attempting to detect host systems of nearby Ca-rich SNe, we here present Hubble Space Telescope imaging of five members of the class three exhibiting large offsets and two coincident with the disc of their hosts. We find no underlying sources at the explosion sites of any of our sample. Combining with previous work, the lack of a host system now appears to be a ubiquitous feature amongst Ca-rich SNe. In this case the offset distribution is most readily explained as a signature of high-velocity progenitor systems that have travelled significant distances before exploding.
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47. |
- Rolfson, Ola, 1973, et al.
(author)
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Patient-reported outcome measures in arthroplasty registries: Report of the Patient-Reported Outcome Measures Working Group of the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries
- 2016
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In: Acta Orthopaedica. - : Medical Journals Sweden AB. - 1745-3674 .- 1745-3682. ; 87, s. 3-8
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The International Society of Arthroplasty Registries (ISAR) Steering Committee established the Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) Working Group to convene, evaluate, and advise on best practices in the selection, administration, and interpretation of PROMs and to support the adoption and use of PROMs for hip and knee arthroplasty in registries worldwide. The 2 main types of PROMs include generic (general health) PROMs, which provide a measure of general health for any health state, and specific PROMs, which focus on specific symptoms, diseases, organs, body regions, or body functions. The establishment of a PROM instrument requires the fulfillment of methodological standards and rigorous testing to ensure that it is valid, reliable, responsive, and acceptable to the intended population.A survey of the 41 ISAR member registries showed that 8 registries administered a PROMs program that covered all elective hip or knee arthroplasty patients and 6 registries collected PROMs for sample populations; 1 other registry had planned but had not started collection of PROMs. The most common generic instruments used were the EuroQol 5 dimension health outcome survey (EQ-5D) and the Short Form 12 health survey (SF-12) or the similar Veterans RAND 12-item health survey (VR-12). The most common specific PROMs were the Hip disability and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (HOOS), the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS), the Oxford Hip Score (OHS), the Oxford Knee Score (OKS), the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC), and the University of California at Los Angeles Activity Score (UCLA).
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48. |
- Rolfson, Ola, 1973, et al.
(author)
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Patient-reported outcome measures in arthroplasty registries: Report of the Patient-Reported Outcome Measures Working Group of the International Society of Arthroplasty Registries Part II. Recommendations for selection, administration, and analysis
- 2016
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In: Acta Orthopaedica. - : Medical Journals Sweden AB. - 1745-3674 .- 1745-3682. ; 87:Suppl 1; 362, s. 9-23
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The International Society of Arthroplasty Registries (ISAR) Patient-Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) Working Group have evaluated and recommended best practices in the selection, administration, and interpretation of PROMs for hip and knee arthroplasty registries. The 2 generic PROMs in common use are the Short Form health surveys (SF-36 or SF-12) and EuroQol 5-dimension (EQ-5D). The Working Group recommends that registries should choose specific PROMs that have been appropriately developed with good measurement properties for arthroplasty patients. The Working Group recommend the use of a 1-item pain question (During the past 4 weeks, how would you describe the pain you usually have in your [right/left] [hip/knee]?; response: none, very mild, mild, moderate, or severe) and a single-item satisfaction outcome (How satisfied are you with your [right/left] [hip/knee] replacement?; response: very unsatisfied, dissatisfied, neutral, satisfied, or very satisfied). Survey logistics include patient instructions, paper- and electronic-based data collection, reminders for follow-up, centralized as opposed to hospital-based follow-up, sample size, patient- or joint-specific evaluation, collection intervals, frequency of response, missing values, and factors in establishing a PROMs registry program. The Working Group recommends including age, sex, diagnosis at joint, general health status preoperatively, and joint pain and function score in case-mix adjustment models. Interpretation and statistical analysis should consider the absolute level of pain, function, and general health status as well as improvement, missing data, approaches to analysis and case-mix adjustment, minimal clinically important difference, and minimal detectable change. The Working Group recommends data collection immediately before and 1 year after surgery, a threshold of 60% for acceptable frequency of response, documentation of non-responders, and documentation of incomplete or missing data.
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