| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(author)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(author)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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| 5. |
- Knudsen, Endre, et al.
(author)
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Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change.
- 2011
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In: Biological Reviews. - 1469-185X. ; 86, s. 928-946
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous control mechanisms. Here we assess and discuss key statements emerging from the rapidly developing study of changing spring phenology in migratory birds. These well-studied organisms have been instrumental for understanding climate-change effects, but research is developing rapidly and there is a need to attack the big issues rather than risking affirmative science. Although we agree poorly on the support for most claims, agreement regarding the knowledge basis enables consensus regarding broad patterns and likely causes. Empirical data needed for disentangling mechanisms are still scarce, and consequences at a population level and on community composition remain unclear. With increasing knowledge, the overall support ('consensus view') for a claim increased and between-researcher variability in support ('expert opinions') decreased, indicating the importance of assessing and communicating the knowledge basis. A proper integration across biological disciplines seems essential for the field's transition from affirming patterns to understanding mechanisms and making robust predictions regarding future consequences of shifting phenologies.
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| 6. |
- Gilbert, M. Thomas P., et al.
(author)
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Paleo-Eskimo mtDNA genome reveals matrilineal discontinuity in Greenland
- 2008
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 320:5884, s. 1787-1789
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Paleo- Eskimo Saqqaq and Independence I cultures, documented from archaeological remains in Northern Canada and Greenland, represent the earliest human expansion into the New World's northern extremes. However, their origin and genetic relationship to later cultures are unknown. We sequenced a mitochondrial genome from a Paleo- Eskimo human by using 3400- to 4500- year- old frozen hair excavated from an early Greenlandic Saqqaq settlement. The sample is distinct from modern Native Americans and Neo- Eskimos, falling within haplogroup D2a1, a group previously observed among modern Aleuts and Siberian Sireniki Yuit. This result suggests that the earliest migrants into the New World's northern extremes derived from populations in the Bering Sea area and were not directly related to Native Americans or the later Neo- Eskimos that replaced them.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Perner, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Hydroxyethyl Starch 130/0.4 versus Ringer's Acetate in Severe Sepsis
- 2012
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 367:2, s. 124-134
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND Hydroxyethyl starch (HES) 130/0.4 is widely used for fluid resuscitation in intensive care units (ICUs), but its safety and efficacy have not been established in patients with severe sepsis. METHODS In this multicenter, parallel-group, blinded trial, we randomly assigned patients with severe sepsis to fluid resuscitation in the ICU with either 6% HES 130/0.4 or Ringer's acetate at a dose of up to 33 ml per kilogram of ideal body weight per day. The primary outcome measure was either death or end-stage kidney failure (dependence on dialysis) at 90 days after randomization. RESULTS Of the 804 patients who underwent randomization, 798 were included in the modified intention-to-treat population. The two intervention groups had similar baseline characteristics. At 90 days after randomization, 201 of 398 patients (51%) assigned to HES 130/0.4 had died, as compared with 172 of 400 patients (43%) assigned to Ringer's acetate (relative risk, 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01 to 1.36; P=0.03); 1 patient in each group had end-stage kidney failure. In the 90-day period, 87 patients (22%) assigned to HES 130/0.4 were treated with renal-replacement therapy versus 65 patients (16%) assigned to Ringer's acetate (relative risk, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.80; P=0.04), and 38 patients (10%) and 25 patients (6%), respectively, had severe bleeding (relative risk, 1.52; 95% CI, 0.94 to 2.48; P=0.09). The results were supported by multivariate analyses, with adjustment for known risk factors for death or acute kidney injury at baseline. CONCLUSIONS Patients with severe sepsis assigned to fluid resuscitation with HES 130/0.4 had an increased risk of death at day 90 and were more likely to require renal-replacement therapy, as compared with those receiving Ringer's acetate.
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| 9. |
- Semb, Gunvor, et al.
(author)
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A Scandcleft randomised trials of primary surgery for unilateral cleft lip and palate: 1. Planning and management.
- 2017
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In: Journal of Plastic Surgery and Hand Surgery. - : Taylor & Francis. - 2000-656X .- 2000-6764. ; 51:1, s. 2-13
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Longstanding uncertainty surrounds the selection of surgical protocols for the closure of unilateral cleft lip and palate, and randomised trials have only rarely been performed. This paper is an introduction to three randomised trials of primary surgery for children born with complete unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP). It presents the protocol developed for the trials in CONSORT format, and describes the management structure that was developed to achieve the long-term engagement and commitment required to complete the project.METHOD: Ten established national or regional cleft centres participated. Lip and soft palate closure at 3-4 months, and hard palate closure at 12 months served as a common method in each trial. Trial 1 compared this with hard palate closure at 36 months. Trial 2 compared it with lip closure at 3-4 months and hard and soft palate closure at 12 months. Trial 3 compared it with lip and hard palate closure at 3-4 months and soft palate closure at 12 months. The primary outcomes were speech and dentofacial development, with a series of perioperative and longer-term secondary outcomes.RESULTS: Recruitment of 448 infants took place over a 9-year period, with 99.8% subsequent retention at 5 years.CONCLUSION: The series of reports that follow this introductory paper include comparisons at age 5 of surgical outcomes, speech outcomes, measures of dentofacial development and appearance, and parental satisfaction. The outcomes recorded and the numbers analysed for each outcome and time point are described in the series.TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN29932826.
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| 10. |
- Bréchignac, Francois, et al.
(author)
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Addressing ecological effects of radiation on populations and ecosystems to improve protection of the environment against radiation : Agreed statements from a Consensus Symposium
- 2016
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In: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity. - : Elsevier BV. - 0265-931X .- 1879-1700. ; 158, s. 21-29
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper reports the output of a consensus symposium organized by the International Union of Radioecology in November 2015. The symposium gathered an academically diverse group of 30 scientists to consider the still debated ecological impact of radiation on populations and ecosystems. Stimulated by the Chernobyl and Fukushima disasters' accidental contamination of the environment, there is increasing interest in developing environmental radiation protection frameworks. Scientific research conducted in a variety of laboratory and field settings has improved our knowledge of the effects of ionizing radiation on the environment. However, the results from such studies sometimes appear contradictory and there is disagreement about the implications for risk assessment. The Symposium discussions therefore focused on issues that might lead to different interpretations of the results, such as laboratory versus field approaches, organism versus population and ecosystemic inference strategies, dose estimation approaches and their significance under chronic exposure conditions. The participating scientists, from across the spectrum of disciplines and research areas, extending also beyond the traditional radioecology community, successfully developed a constructive spirit directed at understanding discrepancies. From the discussions, the group has derived seven consensus statements related to environmental protection against radiation, which are supplemented with some recommendations. Each of these statements is contextualized and discussed in view of contributing to the orientation and integration of future research, the results of which should yield better consensus on the ecological impact of radiation and consolidate suitable approaches for efficient radiological protection of the environment.
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| 11. |
- Ferraguti, Martina, et al.
(author)
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Environmental, geographical and time-related impacts on avian malaria infections in native and introduced populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus), a globally invasive species
- 2023
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In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 32:5, s. 809-823
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: The increasing spread of vector-borne diseases has resulted in severe health concerns for humans, domestic animals and wildlife, with changes in land use and the introduction of invasive species being among the main possible causes for this increase. We explored several ecological drivers potentially affecting the local prevalence and richness of avian malaria parasite lineages in native and introduced house sparrows (Passer domesticus) populations. Location: Global. Time period: 2002–2019. Major taxa studied: Avian Plasmodium parasites in house sparrows. Methods: We analysed data from 2,220 samples from 69 localities across all continents, except Antarctica. The influence of environment (urbanization index and human density), geography (altitude, latitude, hemisphere) and time (bird breeding season and years since introduction) were analysed using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) and random forests. Results: Overall, 670 sparrows (30.2%) were infected with 22 Plasmodium lineages. In native populations, parasite prevalence was positively related to urbanization index, with the highest prevalence values in areas with intermediate urbanization levels. Likewise, in introduced populations, prevalence was positively associated with urbanization index; however, higher infection occurred in areas with either extreme high or low levels of urbanization. In introduced populations, the number of parasite lineages increased with altitude and with the years elapsed since the establishment of sparrows in a new locality. Here, after a decline in the number of parasite lineages in the first 30 years, an increase from 40 years onwards was detected. Main conclusions: Urbanization was related to parasite prevalence in both native and introduced bird populations. In invaded areas, altitude and time since bird introduction were related to the number of Plasmodium lineages found to be infecting sparrows.
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| 12. |
- Johnson, Linda S.B., et al.
(author)
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Irregularity and lack of p waves in short tachycardia episodes predict atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke
- 2018
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In: Heart Rhythm. - : Elsevier BV. - 1547-5271. ; 15:6, s. 805-811
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is defined as an irregular supraventricular tachycardia (SVT) without p waves, with duration >30 seconds. Whether AF characteristics during short SVT episodes predict AF and stroke is not known. Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether irregularity and lack of p waves, alone or in combination, during short SVT episodes increase the risk of incident AF and ischemic stroke. Methods: The population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer study includes 24-hour ECG screening of 377 AF-free individuals (mean age 64.5 years; 43% men) who were prospectively followed for >13 years. There were 65 AF events and 25 ischemic stroke events during follow-up. Subjects with an SVT episode ≥5 beats were identified, and the longest SVT episode was assessed for irregularity and lack of p waves. The association between SVT classification and AF and stroke was assessed using multivariable adjusted Cox regression. Results: The incidence of AF increased with increasing abnormality of the SVTs. The risk-factor adjusted hazard ratio for AF was 4.95 (95% confidence interval 2.06–11.9; P <.0001) for those with short irregular SVTs (<70 beats) without p waves. The incidence of ischemic stroke was highest in the group with regular SVT episodes without p waves (hazard ratio 14.2; 95% confidence interval 3.76–57.6; P <.0001, adjusted for age and sex). Conclusion: Characteristics of short SVT episodes detected at 24-hour ECG screening are associated with incident AF and ischemic stroke. Short irregular SVTs without p waves likely represent early stages of AF or atrial myopathy. Twenty-four–hour ECG could identify subjects suitable for primary prevention efforts.
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| 13. |
- Kern, Ralph, et al.
(author)
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Coulomb Excitation of Proton-rich N = 80 Isotones at HIE-ISOLDE
- 2020
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In: Journal of Physics: Conference Series. - : IOP Publishing. - 1742-6588 .- 1742-6596. ; 1555:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A projectile Coulomb-excitation experiment was performed at the radioactive ion beam facility HIE-ISOLDE at CERN. The radioactive 140Nd and 142Sm ions were post accelerated to the energy of 4.62 MeV/A and impinged on a 1.45 mg/cm2-thin 208Pb target. The γ rays depopulating the Coulomb-excited states were recorded by the HPGe-array MINIBALL. The scattered charged particles were detected by a double-sided silicon strip detector in forward direction. Experimental γ-ray intensities were used for the determination of electromagnetic transition matrix elements. Preliminary results for the reduced transition strength of the B(M1 23+ to 21+)=0.35(19) μN2 of 140Nd and a first estimation for 142Sm have been deduced using the Coulomb-excitation calculation software GOSIA. The 23+ states of 140Nd and 142Sm show indications of being the main fragment of the proton-neutron mixed-symmetry 21, ms+ state.
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| 14. |
- Kivisaari, Kati, et al.
(author)
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Chronic Background Radiation Correlates With Sperm Swimming Endurance in Bank Voles From Chernobyl
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-701X. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sperm quantity and quality are key features explaining intra- and interspecific variation in male reproductive success. Spermatogenesis is sensitive to ionizing radiation and laboratory studies investigating acute effects of ionizing radiation have indeed found negative effects of radiation on sperm quantity and quality. In nature, levels of natural background radiation vary dramatically, and chronic effects of low-level background radiation exposure on spermatogenesis are poorly understood. The Chernobyl region offers a unique research opportunity for investigating effects of chronic low-level ionizing radiation on reproductive properties of wild organisms. We captured male bank voles (Myodes glareolus) from 24 locations in the Chernobyl exclusion zone in 2011 and 2015 and collected information on sperm morphology and kinetics. The dataset is limited in size and there overall was a relatively weak correlation between background radiation and sperm quality. Still, some correlations are worth discussing. First, mid-piece segments of spermatozoa tended to be smaller in bank vole males from areas with elevated background radiation levels. Second, we demonstrated a significant positive relationship between background radiation dose rates and the proportion of static spermatozoa among males within and among study locations after 10 as well as 60 min of incubation. Our results provide novel evidence of damaging effects of low dose ionizing radiation on sperm performance in wild rodent populations, and highlight that this topic requires further study across the natural gradients of background radiation that exist in nature.
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| 15. |
- Lehmann, Philipp, et al.
(author)
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Fitness costs of increased cataract frequency and cumulative radiation dose in natural mammalian populations from Chernobyl
- 2016
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A cataract is a clouding of the lens that reduces light transmission to the retina, and it decreases the visual acuity of the bearer. The prevalence of cataracts in natural populations of mammals, and their potential ecological significance, is poorly known. Cataracts have been reported to arise from high levels of oxidative stress and a major cause of oxidative stress is ionizing radiation. We investigated whether elevated frequencies of cataracts are found in eyes of bank voles Myodes glareolus collected from natural populations in areas with varying levels of background radiation in Chernobyl. We found high frequencies of cataracts in voles collected from different areas in Chernobyl. The frequency of cataracts was positively correlated with age, and in females also with the accumulated radiation dose. Furthermore, the number of offspring in female voles was negatively correlated with cataract severity. The results suggest that cataracts primarily develop as a function of ionizing background radiation, most likely as a plastic response to high levels of oxidative stress. It is therefore possible that the elevated levels of background radiation in Chernobyl affect the ecology and fitness of local mammals both directly through, for instance, reduced fertility and indirectly, through increased cataractogenesis.
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| 16. |
- Marzal, Alfonso, et al.
(author)
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Diversity, Loss, and Gain of Malaria Parasites in a Globally Invasive Bird.
- 2011
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Invasive species can displace natives, and thus identifying the traits that make aliens successful is crucial for predicting and preventing biodiversity loss. Pathogens may play an important role in the invasive process, facilitating colonization of their hosts in new continents and islands. According to the Novel Weapon Hypothesis, colonizers may out-compete local native species by bringing with them novel pathogens to which native species are not adapted. In contrast, the Enemy Release Hypothesis suggests that flourishing colonizers are successful because they have left their pathogens behind. To assess the role of avian malaria and related haemosporidian parasites in the global spread of a common invasive bird, we examined the prevalence and genetic diversity of haemosporidian parasites (order Haemosporida, genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) infecting house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We sampled house sparrows (N = 1820) from 58 locations on 6 continents. All the samples were tested using PCR-based methods; blood films from the PCR-positive birds were examined microscopically to identify parasite species. The results show that haemosporidian parasites in the house sparrows' native range are replaced by species from local host-generalist parasite fauna in the alien environments of North and South America. Furthermore, sparrows in colonized regions displayed a lower diversity and prevalence of parasite infections. Because the house sparrow lost its native parasites when colonizing the American continents, the release from these natural enemies may have facilitated its invasion in the last two centuries. Our findings therefore reject the Novel Weapon Hypothesis and are concordant with the Enemy Release Hypothesis.
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| 17. |
- Møller, Morten Hylander, et al.
(author)
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Higher versus lower oxygenation targets in adult ICU patients : A rapid practice guideline
- 2024
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In: Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica. - 0001-5172. ; 68:3, s. 302-310
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The aim of this Intensive Care Medicine Rapid Practice Guideline (ICM-RPG) was to provide evidence-based clinical guidance about the use of higher versus lower oxygenation targets for adult patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The guideline panel comprised 27 international panelists, including content experts, ICU clinicians, methodologists, and patient representatives. We adhered to the methodology for trustworthy clinical practice guidelines, including the use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach to assess the certainty of evidence, and used the Evidence-to-Decision framework to generate recommendations. A recently published updated systematic review and meta-analysis constituted the evidence base. Through teleconferences and web-based discussions, the panel provided input on the balance and magnitude of the desirable and undesirable effects, the certainty of evidence, patients' values and preferences, costs and resources, equity, feasibility, acceptability, and research priorities. The updated systematic review and meta-analysis included data from 17 randomized clinical trials with 10,248 participants. There was little to no difference between the use of higher versus lower oxygenation targets for all outcomes with available data, including all-cause mortality, serious adverse events, stroke, functional outcomes, cognition, and health-related quality of life (very low certainty of evidence). The panel felt that values and preferences, costs and resources, and equity favored the use of lower oxygenation targets. The ICM-RPG panel issued one conditional recommendation against the use of higher oxygenation targets: “We suggest against the routine use of higher oxygenation targets in adult ICU patients (conditional recommendation, very low certainty of evidence). Remark: an oxygenation target of SpO2 88%–92% or PaO2 8 kPa/60 mmHg is relevant and safe for most adult ICU patients.”.
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| 18. |
- Möller, Sanne P., et al.
(author)
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Uptake of vaccinations and health examinations among refugee children compared to Danish-born children - a register based cohort study
- 2014
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In: European Journal of Public Health. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1101-1262 .- 1464-360X. ; 24:S2, s. 165-166
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundIn Denmark, vaccinations recommended for children include among others vaccinations against diphteria, tetanus, pertussis and polio (DTwP) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR). Children are also offered seven child health examinations (CHE). Both are important to prevent illness and to ensure early detection of developmental progblems. It is crucial that both services are utilized by all families regardless of their socioeconomic position, ethnic background or migrant status. However, there is a paucity of studies on uptake among the potentially vulnerable group of refugees.MethodsThe study population consisted of all refugee children arriving to Denmark between 1993 and 2010, and Danish-born children matched 1:6 on age and sex to the refugee children. Those included in the study had to be eligible for vaccination or CHE, i.e. have the recommended age for an investigated outcome during the observation period, which was January 1993 - May 2012. These criteria were met by 17,701 refugees and 106,206 Danish-born children. Information on vaccinations and CHE's from the Danish National Health Service Register was used to compare uptake among the two groups. Information on refugee status, duration of residence, region of origin and equivalised family income was used to examine predictors of uptake among refugee children. Analyses were made using a Cox regression model.ResultsFor all unadjusted vaccination outcomes refugee children had lower uptake than Danish-born children. However, after adjusting for income only the DTwP remained significant (HR = 0.61; 95%CI: 0.58-0.63). All results for the CHE's remained significant after adjustment for income, with the biggest difference observed for the last CHE at age 5 (HR = 0.48; 95%CI:0.47-0.50). Both refugee status, duration of residence, region of origin and equivalised family income were identified as predictors of uptake among refugee children.ConclusionThe findings that refugee children do not have the same uptake of the investigated services as Danish-born children, suggest that refugees face barriers in the Danish health care system, and that newly arrived families are especially vulnerable. This indicates a need for improvements in the information on health services for newly arrived families.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Pape Møller, Anders, et al.
(author)
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Interaction of climate change with effects of conspecific and heterospecific density on reproduction
- 2020
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In: Oikos. - : Wiley. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 129:12, s. 1807-1819
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We studied the relationship between temperature and the coexistence of great tit Parus major and blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in 75 study plots across Europe and North Africa. We expected an advance in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer springs as a general response to climate warming and a delay in laying date and a reduction in clutch size during warmer winters due to density‐dependent effects. As expected, as spring temperature increases laying date advances and as winter temperature increases clutch size is reduced in both species. Density of great tit affected the relationship between winter temperature and laying date in great and blue tit. Specifically, as density of great tit increased and temperature in winter increased both species started to reproduce later. Density of blue tit affected the relationship between spring temperature and blue and great tit laying date. Thus, both species start to reproduce earlier with increasing spring temperature as density of blue tit increases, which was not an expected outcome, since we expected that increasing spring temperature should advance laying date, while increasing density should delay it cancelling each other out. Climate warming and its interaction with density affects clutch size of great tits but not of blue tits. As predicted, great tit clutch size is reduced more with density of blue tits as temperature in winter increases. The relationship between spring temperature and density on clutch size of great tits depends on whether the increase is in density of great tit or blue tit. Therefore, an increase in temperature negatively affected the coexistence of blue and great tits differently in both species. Thus, blue tit clutch size was unaffected by the interaction effect of density with temperature, while great tit clutch size was affected in multiple ways by these interactions terms.
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