| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 3. |
- Cook, Benjamin I., et al.
(author)
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Sensitivity of Spring Phenology to Warming Across Temporal and Spatial Climate Gradients in Two Independent Databases
- 2012
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In: Ecosystems. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-9840 .- 1435-0629. ; 15:8, s. 1283-1294
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One-PEP725-has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other-NECTAR-includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.
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| 4. |
- Cheng, Susan, et al.
(author)
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Metabolite Profiling Identifies Pathways Associated With Metabolic Risk in Humans
- 2012
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In: Circulation. - 1524-4539. ; 125:18, s. 132-2222
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background-Although metabolic risk factors are known to cluster in individuals who are prone to developing diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, the underlying biological mechanisms remain poorly understood. Methods and Results-To identify pathways associated with cardiometabolic risk, we used liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry to determine the plasma concentrations of 45 distinct metabolites and to examine their relation to cardiometabolic risk in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS; n=1015) and the Malmo Diet and Cancer Study (MDC; n=746). We then interrogated significant findings in experimental models of cardiovascular and metabolic disease. We observed that metabolic risk factors (obesity, insulin resistance, high blood pressure, and dyslipidemia) were associated with multiple metabolites, including branched-chain amino acids, other hydrophobic amino acids, tryptophan breakdown products, and nucleotide metabolites. We observed strong associations of insulin resistance traits with glutamine (standardized regression coefficients, -0.04 to -0.22 per 1-SD change in log-glutamine; P<0.001), glutamate (0.05 to 0.14; P<0.001), and the glutamine-toglutamate ratio (-0.05 to -0.20; P<0.001) in the discovery sample (FHS); similar associations were observed in the replication sample (MDC). High glutamine-to-glutamate ratio was associated with lower risk of incident diabetes mellitus in FHS (odds ratio, 0.79; adjusted P=0.03) but not in MDC. In experimental models, administration of glutamine in mice led to both increased glucose tolerance (P=0.01) and decreased blood pressure (P=0.05). Conclusions-Biochemical profiling identified circulating metabolites not previously associated with metabolic traits. Experimentally interrogating one of these pathways demonstrated that excess glutamine relative to glutamate, resulting from exogenous administration, is associated with reduced metabolic risk in mice. (Circulation. 2012;125:2222-2231.)
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| 5. |
- Davies, T. Jonathan, et al.
(author)
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Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology
- 2013
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In: Journal of Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2745 .- 0022-0477. ; 101:6, s. 1520-1530
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Phenological events - defined points in the life cycle of a plant or animal - have been regarded as highly plastic traits, reflecting flexible responses to various environmental cues. The ability of a species to track, via shifts in phenological events, the abiotic environment through time might dictate its vulnerability to future climate change. Understanding the predictors and drivers of phenological change is therefore critical. Here, we evaluated evidence for phylogenetic conservatism - the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes - in phenological traits across flowering plants. We aggregated published and unpublished data on timing of first flower and first leaf, encompassing 4000 species at 23 sites across the Northern Hemisphere. We reconstructed the phylogeny for the set of included species, first, using the software program Phylomatic, and second, from DNA data. We then quantified phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology within and across sites. We show that more closely related species tend to flower and leaf at similar times. By contrasting mean flowering times within and across sites, however, we illustrate that it is not the time of year that is conserved, but rather the phenological responses to a common set of abiotic cues. Our findings suggest that species cannot be treated as statistically independent when modelling phenological responses.Synthesis. Closely related species tend to resemble each other in the timing of their life-history events, a likely product of evolutionarily conserved responses to environmental cues. The search for the underlying drivers of phenology must therefore account for species' shared evolutionary histories.
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| 6. |
- Wang, Thomas J., et al.
(author)
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Metabolite profiles and the risk of developing diabetes
- 2011
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In: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-170X .- 1078-8956. ; 17:4, s. 83-448
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Emerging technologies allow the high-throughput profiling of metabolic status from a blood specimen (metabolomics). We investigated whether metabolite profiles could predict the development of diabetes. Among 2,422 normoglycemic individuals followed for 12 years, 201 developed diabetes. Amino acids, amines and other polar metabolites were profiled in baseline specimens by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS). Cases and controls were matched for age, body mass index and fasting glucose. Five branched-chain and aromatic amino acids had highly significant associations with future diabetes: isoleucine, leucine, valine, tyrosine and phenylalanine. A combination of three amino acids predicted future diabetes (with a more than fivefold higher risk for individuals in top quartile). The results were replicated in an independent, prospective cohort. These findings underscore the potential key role of amino acid metabolism early in the pathogenesis of diabetes and suggest that amino acid profiles could aid in diabetes risk assessment.
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| 7. |
- Lane, Deirdre A, et al.
(author)
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Cardiac tachyarrhythmias and patient values and preferences for their management : the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) consensus document endorsed by the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), Asia Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS), and Sociedad Latinoamericana de Estimulación Cardíaca y Electrofisiología (SOLEACE).
- 2015
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In: Europace. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1099-5129 .- 1532-2092. ; 17:12, s. 1747-1769
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cardiac tachyarrhythmias are recurrent or chronic and in some cases life-threatening conditions. Heart rhythm disturbances are often highly symptomatic and the psychological impact of the disease can be significant. Patients' beliefs and knowledge about their health (and illness), medications, and healthcare they receive are important determinants of whether or not they accept recommended treatments; influence their coping responses to their illness and treatment; adherence to recommended therapy; and ultimately affects health outcomes. Incorporation of patients' values and preferences for therapy should now be considered as an integral part of the decision-making process and treatment strategy.It is important to acknowledge and understand the impact of cardiac tachyarrhythmias on the patient. To address this issue, a Task Force was convened by the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA), and endorsed by the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), Asia-Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS), and Sociedad Latinoamericana de Estimulación Cardíaca y Electrofisiología (SOLEACE), with the remit to comprehensively review the published evidence available, to publish a joint consensus document on patient values and preferences for the management of cardiac tachyarrhythmias, and to provide up-to-date consensus recommendations for use in clinical practice.Hence this unique consensus document focuses on patients, summarizing the available literature on patients' experiences of living with various cardiac tachyarrhythmias and their treatment preferences, and identifies gaps in knowledge which will help to inform clinical practice and future research. The document will also summarize key points for discussions with patients during consultations regarding their condition, treatment options, disease trajectory, treatment goals, and outcomes. Finally, this document provides links to useful resources and patient advocacy groups and organizations and professional societies relevant to each group of cardiac tachyarrhythmias.
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