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1.	Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author) Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
2.	Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
3.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
4.	Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. 2015 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
5.	Fullman, Nancy, et al. (author) Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 In: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 391:10136, s. 2236-2271 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
6.	Karimu, Amin, et al. (author) Natural resource revenues and public investment in resource-rich economies in sub-Saharan Africa 2016 Reports (peer-reviewed)abstract The general policy prescription for resource-rich countries is that, for sustainable consumption, a greater percentage of the windfall from resource rents should be channelled into accumulating foreign assets such as a sovereign public fund as done in Norway and other developed but resource-rich countries. This might not be a correct policy prescription for resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where public capital is very low to support the needed economic growth. In such countries, rents from resources serve as opportunity to scale-up the needed public capital. Using panel data for the period 1990–2013, we find in line with the scaling-up hypothesis that resource rents significantly increase public investment in SSA and that this tends to depend on the quality of political institutions. We also find evidence of a positive effect of public investment on economic growth, which also depends on the level of resource rents. Using some of the components of public investment, such as health and education expenditure, we find a negative effect of resource rents, suggesting among other things that public spending of resource rents is directed more to other infrastructure investments.
7.	Karimu, Amin, et al. (author) Natural Resource Revenues and Public Investment in Resource-rich Economies in Sub-Saharan Africa 2017 In: Review of Development Economics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1363-6669 .- 1467-9361. ; 21:4, s. 107-130 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The general policy prescription for resource-rich countries is that, for sustainable consumption, a greater percentage of the windfall from resource rents should be channeled into accumulating foreign assets such as a sovereign public fund as done in Norway and other developed but resource-rich countries. This might not be a correct policy prescription for resource-rich sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, where public capital is very low to support the needed economic growth. In such countries, rents from resources serve as an opportunity to scale-up the needed public capital. Using a panel data for the period 1990–2013, we find in line with the scaling-up hypothesis that resource rents significantly increases public investment in SSA and that this tends to depend on the quality of political institutions. Moreover, we also find evidence of a positive effect of public investment on economic growth, which also depends on the level of resource rents.
8.	Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author) Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
9.	Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author) Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
10.	Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
11.	Adu, George, et al. (author) Contribution of Agriculture to Deforestation in the Tropics: A Theoretical Investigation 2012 In: African Review of Economics and Finance. - 2042-1478 .- 2410-4906. ; 3, s. 1-12 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
12.	Adu, George, et al. (author) Macroeconomic Development and Stock Market Performance: A NonParametric Approach 2012 In: Journal of Economics and Econometrics. - 2032-9652 .- 2032-9660. ; 55, s. 100-129 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
13.	Afshin, Ashkan, et al. (author) Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years 2017 In: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
14.	Domfe, George, et al. (author) Labour market analysis and business process outsourcing in Ghana 2013 Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract While both unemployment and underemployment are the two main forms of underutilisation of human resources in Ghana, much of the policy attention has always been focused on unemployment. Ironically, unemployment rates (for both the youth and the elderly) in Ghana appear among the lowest in the world. For youth aged 19-24 years, the unemployment rate is highest at 9.15% in this age group compared to the unemployment rate of Ghana’s total working age population which averages at 3.6%. Out of all the unemployed working age persons, youth do make up a high unemployed proportion at 40% (under the strict definition). That is about 280,000 youth between the ages of 15-24 out of approximately 700,000 working age persons who are economically active and who were unemployed in 2006.In further analysis of employment industries, one finds Ghana’s largest employer remains the agricultural sector. Within this agricultural sector, the majority, particularly the working youth (15-24 year olds), are absorbed under the informal sector. Youth identified as employed are also found helping unpaid in the household and the â€žolder youthâ€Ÿ (ages 19-24) over time rise to become their own-account worker. This therefore renders underemployment the main form of labour absorption especially for the youth in Ghana. Many youth are found without any formal written contract before starting work with employers. Of the youth who are identified as working, 10.33% between ages 15-18 have no formal education. Nevertheless, the majority of youth, nearly 2.3 million in 20061, are identified as economically inactive, which includes many young people who stay in school to gain some form of formal education including some secondary schooling. Apart from the major employer being the agricultural sector, the next major employer for youth is the services sector followed by manufacturing. The services sector includes: sales and retail and community, social and personal services. A greater proportion of young women than men were found in the manufacturing and wholesale and retail sectors.It is against this background that many development experts see the emerging business process outsourcing (BPO) sector as a potential source of gainful employment for youth. Ghana’s BPO subsector is growing rapidly due to Ghana’s steps through the government to partner in the e-Ghana programme. This programme intends to improve the enabling infrastructure for BPO and create visibility and public awareness for its BPO industry. There are also government training facilities to provide upskilling of potential workers who will be prepared for Ghana’s BPO sector. Ghana’s rising adoption of mobile phones and internet is also an encouraging sign towards opening an ICT sector of employment which can absorb some of the underemployed youth of Ghana. Better monitoring of the progress of the BPO sector in Ghana is suggested to understand how the industry absorbs underemployed youth.Policy: In a population with high, unpaid youth employment in the agricultural sector, the transition from the agricultural to the services-based sector may need further thought. Will agricultural households have their unpaid youth household members transit into services sector work and if so, how will they cope? Adequate bridging training programmes may be necessary to allow for those at least with a minimum primary education to have opportunities in the emerging BPO field. Furthermore, of the youth majority who are economically inactive and still in school, the transition plans could be further firmed to ensure they are employable within the BPO sector. While informal employment is very common worldwide, policy plans are suggested to ensure that the BPO sector encourages work to be developed within a formal sector framework which provides protection to and lowers risks taken on by workers, especially the vulnerable youth.
15.	Feigin, Valery L, et al. (author) Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016. 2018 In: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
16.	Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author) Prevention of stroke : A strategic global imperative 2016 In: Nature Reviews Neurology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1759-4758 .- 1759-4766. ; 12:9, s. 501-512 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract The increasing global stroke burden strongly suggests that currently implemented primary stroke prevention strategies are not sufficiently effective, and new primary prevention strategies with larger effect sizes are needed. Here, we review the latest stroke epidemiology literature, with an emphasis on the recently published Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study estimates; highlight the problems with current primary stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention strategies; and outline new developments in primary stroke and CVD prevention. We also suggest key priorities for the future, including comprehensive prevention strategies that target people at all levels of CVD risk; implementation of an integrated approach to promote healthy behaviours and reduce health disparities; capitalizing on information technology to advance prevention approaches and techniques; and incorporation of culturally appropriate education about healthy lifestyles into standard education curricula early in life. Given the already immense and fast-increasing burden of stroke and other major noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which threatens worldwide sustainability, governments of all countries should develop and implement an emergency action plan addressing the primary prevention of NCDs, possibly including taxation strategies to tackle unhealthy behaviours that increase the risk of stroke and other NCDs.
17.	Griswold, Max G., et al. (author) Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 2018 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
18.	Lim, Stephen S, et al. (author) A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. 2012 In: Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 380:9859, s. 2224-60 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
19.	Roth, Gregory A, et al. (author) Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019 : Update From the GBD 2019 Study 2020 In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 76:25, s. 2982-3021 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.
20.	Vos, Theo, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
21.	Adamina, M, et al. (author) The impact of surgical delay on resectability of colorectal cancer: An international prospective cohort study 2022 In: Colorectal disease : the official journal of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland. - : Wiley. - 1463-1318. ; 24:6, s. 708-726 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
22.	Agarwal, Anubha, et al. (author) Toward a Universal Definition of Etiologies in Heart Failure : Categorizing Causes and Advancing Registry Science 2024 In: Circulation Heart Failure. - : American Heart Association. - 1941-3289 .- 1941-3297. ; 17:4 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract Heart failure (HF) is a well-described final common pathway for a broad range of diseases however substantial confusion exists regarding how to describe, study, and track these underlying etiologic conditions. We describe (1) the overlap in HF etiologies, comorbidities, and case definitions as currently used in HF registries led or managed by members of the global HF roundtable; (2) strategies to improve the quality of evidence on etiologies and modifiable risk factors of HF in registries; and (3) opportunities to use clinical HF registries as a platform for public health surveillance, implementation research, and randomized registry trials to reduce the global burden of noncommunicable diseases. Investment and collaboration among countries to improve the quality of evidence in global HF registries could contribute to achieving global health targets to reduce noncommunicable diseases and overall improvements in population health.
23.	Amoako-Sakyi, Daniel, et al. (author) A STAT6 Intronic Single-Nucleotide Polymorphism is Associated with Clinical Malaria in Ghanaian Children 2016 In: Genetics and Epigenetics. - 1179-237X. ; 8, s. 7-14 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Malaria pathogenesis may be influenced by IgE responses and cytokine cross-regulation. Several mutations in the IL-4/STAT6 signaling pathway can alter cytokine cross-regulation and IgE responses during a Plasmodium falciparum malarial infection. This study investigated the relationship between a STAT6 intronic single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs3024974), total IgE, cytokines, and malaria severity in 238 Ghanaian children aged between 0.5 and 13 years. Total IgE and cytokine levels were measured by ELISA, while genotyping was done by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP). Compared with healthy controls, heterozygosity protected against clinical malaria: uncomplicated malaria (odds ratios [OR] = 0.13, P < 0.001), severe malarial anemia (OR = 0.18, P, 0.001), and cerebral malaria (OR = 0.39, P = 0.022). Levels of total IgE significantly differed among malaria phenotypes (P = 0.044) and rs3024974 genotypes (P = 0.037). Neither cytokine levels nor IL-6/IL-10 ratios were associated with malaria phenotypes or rs3024974 genotypes. This study suggests a role for rs3024974 in malaria pathogenesis and offers further insights into an IL-4/STAT6 pathway mutation in malaria pathogenesis.
24.	Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin, et al. (author) Climate variability and infectious diseases nexus: Evidence from Sweden 2017 In: Infectious Disease Modelling. - : KeAi Publishing. - 2468-0427. ; 2:2, s. 203-217 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Many studies on the link between climate variability and infectious diseases are based on biophysical experiments, do not account for socio-economic factors and with little focus on developed countries. This study examines the effect of climate variability and socio-economic variables on infectious diseases using data from all 21 Swedish counties. Employing static and dynamic modelling frameworks, we observe that temperature has a linear negative effect on the number of patients. The relationship between winter temperature and the number of patients is non-linear and “U” shaped in the static model. Conversely, a positive effect of precipitation on the number of patients is found, with modest heterogeneity in the effect of climate variables on the number of patients across disease classifications observed. The effect of education and number of health personnel explain the number of patients in a similar direction (negative), while population density and immigration drive up reported cases. Income explains this phenomenon non-linearly. In the dynamic setting, we found significant persistence in the number of infectious and parasitic-diseased patients, with temperature and income observed as the only significant drivers.
25.	Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin, et al. (author) Credit risk and universal banking : evidence from the banking industry in Ghana 2015 In: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics. - : InderScience Publishers. - 1757-1170 .- 1757-1189. ; 5:4, s. 406-429 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
26.	Amuakwa Mensah, Franklin, et al. (author) Credit Risk and Universal Banking: Evidence from the Banking Industry in Ghana 2015 In: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics. - 1757-1170. ; 5, s. 406–429- Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Using a dynamic panel data and an Arellano-Bond estimation technique, we estimate the determinants of credit risk and the effect of the introduction of universal banking licence on credit risk in the banking industry of Ghana. We find that the effect of universal banking policy on credit risk in the banking industry depends on the definition of credit risk. Using total loan to total asset ratio as a proxy for credit risk, we observe a positive effect of universal banking policy on credit risk in all our models, indicating that universal banking policy has the potential of increasing credit risk. However, there is a mixed and weak effect of universal banking policy on credit risk when we define credit risk as bad debt to total loan ratio. Also, we find that both bank-specific and macroeconomic variables do explain credit risk in the banking industry of Ghana.
27.	Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin, et al. (author) Re-examining the Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in Ghana’s Banking Industry: Role of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis 2017 In: Journal of African Business. - : Routledge. - 1522-8916 .- 1522-9076. ; 18:3, s. 357-379 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This paper uses robust econometric methods to estimate the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) with a specific focus on the role of the 2007–2009 financial crisis in explaining NPLs in the banking industry of Ghana. Findings suggest that non-performing loans are significantly affected by bank-specific, industry, and macroeconomic variables. We observed heterogeneity in the determinants of NPLs for sub-samples of the data. The effect of the financial crisis on NPLs is observed to be conditional on the level of credit risk in our sub-sample analysis. The results from the impulse response corroborate that of the regression estimation.
28.	Amuakwa Mensah, Franklin, et al. (author) The Determinants of Net Interest Margin in the Ghanaian Banking Industry 2015 In: Journal of African Business. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1522-8916 .- 1522-9076. ; 16, s. 272-288 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This study investigates the determinants of net interest margin and the role of the financial crisis in explaining net interest margin (NIM) in the banking industry in Ghana. Further, we assess the sensitivity of our results to the measure of credit risk. We observe a sharp drop in NIM and an increase in bad debt growth during the 2007-2009 financial crisis in Ghana's banking sector. Depending on the definition of credit risk, we observe marginal differences in the magnitude and significance of the determinants of NIM. Generally, NIM is explained by bank-specific, industry and macroeconomic factors. We find risk aversion, operating cost, inflation rate and previous year's GDP growth to be robust drivers of NIM.
29.	Arokiasamy, Perianayagam, et al. (author) Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases in 6 Low-and Middle-Income Countries : Findings From Wave 1 of the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) 2017 In: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 185:6, s. 414-428 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract In this paper, we examine patterns of self-reported diagnosis of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and prevalences of algorithm/measured test-based, undiagnosed, and untreated NCDs in China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa. Nationally representative samples of older adults aged >= 50 years were analyzed from wave 1 of the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (2007-2010; n = 34,149). Analyses focused on 6 conditions: angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, and hypertension. Outcomes for these NCDs were: 1) self-reported disease, 2) algorithm/measured test-based disease, 3) undiagnosed disease, and 4) untreated disease. Algorithm/measured test-based prevalence of NCDs was much higher than self-reported prevalence in all 6 countries, indicating underestimation of NCD prevalence in low-and middle-income countries. Undiagnosed prevalence of NCDs was highest for hypertension, ranging from 19.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1, 21.3) in India to 49.6% (95% CI: 46.2, 53.0) in South Africa. The proportion untreated among all diseases was highest for depression, ranging from 69.5% (95% CI: 57.1, 81.9) in South Africa to 93.2% (95% CI: 90.1, 95.7) in India. Higher levels of education and wealth significantly reduced the odds of an undiagnosed condition and untreated morbidity. A high prevalence of undiagnosed NCDs and an even higher proportion of untreated NCDs highlights the inadequacies in diagnosis and management of NCDs in local health-care systems.
30.	Das, Oisik, et al. (author) Flammability and mechanical properties of biochars made in different pyrolysis reactors 2021 In: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier. - 0961-9534 .- 1873-2909. ; 152 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The effect of pyrolysis reactors on the properties of biochars (with a focus on flammability and mechanical characteristics) were investigated by keeping factors such as feedstock, carbonisation temperature, heating rate and residence time constant. The reactors employed were hydrothermal, fixed-bed batch vertical and fixed-bed batch horizontal-tube reactors. The vertical and tube reactors, at the same temperature, produced biochars having comparable elemental carbon content, surface functionalities, thermal degradation pattern and peak heat release rates. The hydrothermal reactor, although, a low-temperature process, produced biochar with high fire resistance because the formed tarry volatiles sealed water inside the pores, which hindered combustion. However, the biochar from hydrothermal reactor had the lowest nanoindentation properties whereas the tube reactor-produced biochar at 300 °C had the highest nanoindentation-hardness (290 Megapascal) and modulus (ca. 4 Gigapascal) amongst the other tested samples. Based on the inherent flammability and mechanical properties of biochars, polymeric composites’ properties can be predicted that can include them as constituents.
31.	Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author) Atlas of the Global Burden of Stroke (1990-2013): The GBD 2013 Study 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 230-236 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: World mapping is an important tool to visualize stroke burden and its trends in various regions and countries. Objectives: To show geographic patterns of incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) and their trends for ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke in the world for 1990-2013. Methodology: Stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, DALYs and YLDs were estimated following the general approach of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 with several important improvements in methods. Data were updated for mortality (through April 2014) and stroke incidence, prevalence, case fatality and severity through 2013. Death was estimated using an ensemble modeling approach. A new software package, DisMod-MR 2.0, was used as part of a custom modeling process to estimate YLDs. All rates were age-standardized to new GBD estimates of global population. All estimates have been computed with 95% uncertainty intervals. Results: Age-standardized incidence, mortality, prevalence and DALYs/YLDs declined over the period from 1990 to 2013. However, the absolute number of people affected by stroke has substantially increased across all countries in the world over the same time period, suggesting that the global stroke burden continues to increase. There were significant geographical (country and regional) differences in stroke burden in the world, with the majority of the burden borne by low- and middle-income countries. Conclusions: Global burden of stroke has continued to increase in spite of dramatic declines in age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality rates and disability. Population growth and aging have played an important role in the observed increase in stroke burden.
32.	Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author) Global Burden of Stroke 2017 In: Circulation Research. - 0009-7330. ; 120:3, s. 439-448 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract On the basis of the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2013 Study, this article provides an overview of the global, regional, and country-specific burden of stroke by sex and age groups, including trends in stroke burden from 1990 to 2013, and outlines recommended measures to reduce stroke burden. It shows that although stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years rates tend to decline from 1990 to 2013, the overall stroke burden in terms of absolute number of people affected by, or who remained disabled from, stroke has increased across the globe in both men and women of all ages. This provides a strong argument that "business as usual" for primary stroke prevention is not sufficiently effective. Although prevention of stroke is a complex medical and political issue, there is strong evidence that substantial prevention of stroke is feasible in practice. The need to scale-up the primary prevention actions is urgent.
33.	Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author) Global burden of stroke and risk factors in 188 countries, during 1990–2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2016 In: The Lancet Neurology. - 1474-4422. ; 15:9, s. 913-924 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background The contribution of modifiable risk factors to the increasing global and regional burden of stroke is unclear, but knowledge about this contribution is crucial for informing stroke prevention strategies. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of stroke-related disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with potentially modifiable environmental, occupational, behavioural, physiological, and metabolic risk factors in different age and sex groups worldwide and in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries, from 1990 to 2013. Methods We used data on stroke-related DALYs, risk factors, and PAF from the GBD 2013 Study to estimate the burden of stroke by age and sex (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UI]) in 188 countries, as measured with stroke-related DALYs in 1990 and 2013. We evaluated attributable DALYs for 17 risk factors (air pollution and environmental, dietary, physical activity, tobacco smoke, and physiological) and six clusters of risk factors by use of three inputs: risk factor exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. For most risk factors, we synthesised data for exposure with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. We based relative risks on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks, such as high body-mass index (BMI), through other risks, such as high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and high total cholesterol. Findings Globally, 90·5% (95% UI 88·5–92·2) of the stroke burden (as measured in DALYs) was attributable to the modifiable risk factors analysed, including 74·2% (95% UI 70·7–76·7) due to behavioural factors (smoking, poor diet, and low physical activity). Clusters of metabolic factors (high SBP, high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, high total cholesterol, and low glomerular filtration rate; 72·4%, 95% UI 70·2–73·5) and environmental factors (air pollution and lead exposure; 33·4%, 95% UI 32·4–34·3) were the second and third largest contributors to DALYs. Globally, 29·2% (95% UI 28·2–29·6) of the burden of stroke was attributed to air pollution. Although globally there were no significant differences between sexes in the proportion of stroke burden due to behavioural, environmental, and metabolic risk clusters, in the low-income and middle-income countries, the PAF of behavioural risk clusters in males was greater than in females. The PAF of all risk factors increased from 1990 to 2013 (except for second-hand smoking and household air pollution from solid fuels) and varied significantly between countries. Interpretation Our results suggest that more than 90% of the stroke burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors, and achieving control of behavioural and metabolic risk factors could avert more than three-quarters of the global stroke burden. Air pollution has emerged as a significant contributor to global stroke burden, especially in low-income and middle-income countries, and therefore reducing exposure to air pollution should be one of the main priorities to reduce stroke burden in these countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Heart Association, US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Columbia University, Health Research Council of New Zealand, Brain Research New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence, and National Science Challenge, Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment of New Zealand.
34.	Halliday, A, et al. (author) Status update and interim results from the asymptomatic carotid surgery trial-2 (ACST-2) 2013 In: European journal of vascular and endovascular surgery : the official journal of the European Society for Vascular Surgery. - : Elsevier BV. - 1532-2165. ; 46:5, s. 510-518 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
35.	Idun, Anthony Adu-Asare, et al. (author) Volatility forecasts of inflation in the WAMZ area : Digit inflation convergence criterion 2014 In: 2nd UGBS Conference on Business and Development 2014. - Accra : University of Ghana Business School. - 9789988195618 - 9789988195649 ; , s. 49-62 Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract This work seeks to augment policy directions on single-digit inflation rates convergence. The paper resorted to both univariate and multivariate forecasting procedures to predict the inflation rates of the member countries in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) area, on the proposed date for the introduction of the Eco. Essentially, we did not find enough evidence that the introduction of the Eco will materialize on the set date. The paper cautions against a hasty introduction of the Eco. WAMI should therefore continue to create avenues for assisting member countries to improve their macroeconomic dynamics.
36.	Karimu, Amin, 1978-, et al. (author) Who Adopts LPG as the Main Cooking Fuel and Why? : Empirical Evidence on Ghana Based on National Survey 2016 In: World Development. - : Elsevier. - 0305-750X .- 1873-5991. ; 85, s. 43-57 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The aim of this paper is to identify the factors that influence the probability of adopting LPG as the main cooking fuel in Ghana using household level data gleaned from last two nationwide household surveys (GLSS 5 & GLSS 6). Using a flexible semi parametric specification, the following were uncovered. First, we find socioeconomic and demographic factors such as income, education, access to urban infrastructure, and location of household, as key drivers of households' choice of LPG as main cooking energy source. Again the influences of these factors are stable across time, and with a strong price effect. The evidence shows that urban households with better socioeconomic and demographic factors are likely to adopt LPG as the main cooking fuel relative to households in rural areas and also urban households with poor socioeconomic and demographic factors. Finally, we observe that the imposition of fully parametric structure (functional form) prior to estimation on factors such as age of household head, income, and household size as done in the literature is inappropriate, at least in the case of Ghana and tend to bias the marginal effects. There is strong evidence of variations in the response rate of LPG adoption over the domains of income, household size, and the age of the household head. The results suggest a policy dichotomy between rural and urban dwellers for it to be effective.
37.	Krishnamurthi, Rita V., et al. (author) Stroke Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Adults Aged 20-64 Years in 1990-2013: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2013 Study 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 190-202 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Recent evidence suggests that stroke is increasing as a cause of morbidity and mortality in younger adults, where it carries particular significance for working individuals. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of stroke burden are important for planning stroke prevention and management in younger adults. Objectives: This study aims to estimate prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and their trends for total, ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in the world for 1990-2013 in adults aged 20-64 years. Methodology: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 methods. All available data on rates of stroke incidence, excess mortality, prevalence and death were collected. Statistical models were used along with country-level covariates to estimate country-specific stroke burden. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to compute years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. Results: In 2013, in younger adults aged 20-64 years, the global prevalence of HS was 3,725,085 cases (95% UI 3,548,098-3,871,018) and IS was 7,258,216 cases (95% UI 6,996,272-7,569,403). Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in absolute numbers and prevalence rates of both HS and IS for younger adults. There were 1,483,707 (95% UI 1,340,579-1,658,929) stroke deaths globally among younger adults but the number of deaths from HS (1,047,735 (95% UI 945,087-1,184,192)) was significantly higher than the number of deaths from IS (435,972 (95% UI 354,018-504,656)). There was a 20.1% (95% UI -23.6 to -10.3) decline in the number of total stroke deaths among younger adults in developed countries but a 36.7% (95% UI 26.3-48.5) increase in developing countries. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults declined significantly in developing countries from 47 (95% UI 42.6-51.7) in 1990 to 39 (95% UI 35.0-43.8) in 2013. Death rates for all strokes among younger adults also declined significantly in developed countries from 33.3 (95% UI 29.8-37.0) in 1990 to 23.5 (95% UI 21.1-26.9) in 2013. A significant decrease in HS death rates for younger adults was seen only in developed countries between 1990 and 2013 (19.8 (95% UI 16.9-22.6) and 13.7 (95% UI 12.1-15.9)) per 100,000). No significant change was detected in IS death rates among younger adults. The total DALYs from all strokes in those aged 20-64 years was 51,429,440 (95% UI 46,561,382-57,320,085). Globally, there was a 24.4% (95% UI 16.6-33.8) increase in total DALY numbers for this age group, with a 20% (95% UI 11.7-31.1) and 37.3% (95% UI 23.4-52.2) increase in HS and IS numbers, respectively. Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in prevalent cases, total deaths and DALYs due to HS and IS in younger adults aged 20-64 years. Death and DALY rates declined in both developed and developing countries but a significant increase in absolute numbers of stroke deaths among younger adults was detected in developing countries. Most of the burden of stroke was in developing countries. In 2013, the greatest burden of stroke among younger adults was due to HS. While the trends in declining death and DALY rates in developing countries are encouraging, these regions still fall far behind those of developed regions of the world. A more aggressive approach toward primary prevention and increased access to adequate healthcare services for stroke is required to substantially narrow these disparities. (C) 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel
38.	Krishnamurthi, Rita V., et al. (author) Stroke Prevalence, Mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years in Children and Youth Aged 0-19 Years: Data from the Global and Regional Burden of Stroke 2013 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 177-189 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: There is increasing recognition of stroke as an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Current estimates of global childhood stroke burden and its temporal trends are sparse. Accurate and up-to-date estimates of childhood stroke burden are important for planning research and the resulting evidence-based strategies for stroke prevention and management. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for ischemic stroke (IS), hemorrhagic stroke (HS) and all stroke types combined globally from 1990 to 2013. Methodology: Stroke prevalence, mortality and DALYs were estimated using the Global Burden of Disease 2013 methods. All available data on stroke-related incidence, prevalence, excess mortality and deaths were collected. Statistical models and country-level covariates were employed to produce comprehensive and consistent estimates of prevalence and mortality. Stroke-specific disability weights were used to estimate years lived with disability and DALYs. Means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The median of the percent change and 95% UI were determined for the period from 1990 to 2013. Results: In 2013, there were 97,792 (95% UI 90,564-106,016) prevalent cases of childhood IS and 67,621 (95% UI 62,899-72,214) prevalent cases of childhood HS, reflecting an increase of approximately 35% in the absolute numbers of prevalent childhood strokes since 1990. There were 33,069 (95% UI 28,627-38,998) deaths and 2,615,118 (95% UI 2,265,801-3,090,822) DALYs due to childhood stroke in 2013 globally, reflecting an approximately 200% decrease in the absolute numbers of death and DALYs in childhood stroke since 1990. Between 1990 and 2013, there were significant increases in the global prevalence rates of childhood IS, as well as significant decreases in the global death rate and DALYs rate of all strokes in those of age 0-19 years. While prevalence rates for childhood IS and HS decreased significantly in developed countries, a decline was seen only in HS, with no change in prevalence rates of IS, in developing countries. The childhood stroke DALY rates in 2013 were 13.3 (95% UI 10.6-17.1) for IS and 92.7 (95% UI 80.5-109.7) for HS per 100,000. While the prevalence of childhood IS compared to childhood HS was similar globally, the death rate and DALY rate of HS was 6- to 7-fold higher than that of IS. In 2013, the prevalence rate of both childhood IS and HS was significantly higher in developed countries than in developing countries. Conversely, both death and DALY rates for all stroke types were significantly lower in developed countries than in developing countries in 2013. Men showed a trend toward higher childhood stroke death rates (1.5 (1.3-1.8) per 100,000) than women (1.1 (0.9-1.5) per 100,000) and higher childhood stroke DALY rates (120.1 (100.8-143.4) per 100,000) than women (90.9 (74.6-122.4) per 100,000) globally in 2013. Conclusions: Globally, between 1990 and 2013, there was a significant increase in the absolute number of prevalent childhood strokes, while absolute numbers and rates of both deaths and DALYs declined significantly. The gap in childhood stroke burden between developed and developing countries is closing; however, in 2013, childhood stroke burden in terms of absolute numbers of prevalent strokes, deaths and DALYs remained much higher in developing countries. There is an urgent need to address these disparities with both global and country-level initiatives targeting prevention as well as improved access to acute and chronic stroke care. (C) 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel
39.	Lin, Chia-Feng, et al. (author) Fire Retardancy and Leaching Resistance of Furfurylated Pine Wood (Pinus sylvestris L.) Treated with Guanyl-Urea Phosphate 2022 In: Polymers. - : MDPI. - 2073-4360. ; 14:9 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Guanyl-urea phosphate (GUP) was introduced into furfurylated wood in order to improve fire retardancy. Modified wood was produced via vacuum-pressure impregnation of the GUP–furfuryl alcohol (FA) aqueous solution, which was then polymerized at elevated temperature. The water leaching resistance of the treated wood was tested according to European standard EN 84, while the leached water was analyzed using ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) and inductively coupled plasma–sector field mass spectrometry (ICP-SFMS). This new type of furfurylated wood was further characterized in the laboratory by evaluating its morphology and elemental composition using optical microscopy and electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (SEM-EDX). The chemical functionality was detected using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and the fire resistance was tested using cone calorimetry. The dimensional stability was evaluated in wet–dry soaking cycle tests, along with the mechanical properties, such as the Brinell hardness and bending strength. The fire retardancy of the modified furfurylated wood indicated that the flammability of wood can be depressed to some extent by introducing GUP. This was reflected in an observed reduction in heat release rate (HRR2) from 454.8 to 264.9 kW/m2, without a reduction in the material properties. In addition, this leaching-resistant furfurylated wood exhibited higher fire retardancy compared to conventional furfurylated wood. A potential method for producing fire-retardant treated furfurylated wood stable to water exposure has been suggested.
40.	Lin, Chia-Feng, et al. (author) High Leach-Resistant Fire-Retardant Modified Pine Wood (Pinus sylvestris L.) by In Situ Phosphorylation and Carbamylation 2023 In: ACS Omega. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2470-1343. ; 8:12, s. 11381-11396 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The exterior application of fire-retardant (FR) timber necessitates it to have high durability because of the possibility to be exposed to rainfall. In this study, water-leaching resistance of FR wood has been imparted by grafting phosphate and carbamate groups of the water-soluble FR additives ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (ADP)/urea onto the hydroxyl groups of wood polymers via vacuum-pressure impregnation, followed by drying/heating in hot air. A darker and more reddish wood surface was observed after the modification. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, solid-state 13C cross-polarization magic-angle-spinning nuclear magnetic resonance (13C CP-MAS NMR), and direct-excitation 31P MAS NMR suggested the formation of C–O–P covalent bonds and urethane chemical bridges. Scanning electron microscopy/energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry suggested the diffusion of ADP/urea into the cell wall. The gas evolution analyzed by thermogravimetric analysis coupled with quadrupole mass spectrometry revealed a potential grafting reaction mechanism starting with the thermal decomposition of urea. Thermal behavior showed that the FR-modified wood lowered the main decomposition temperature and promoted the formation of char residues at elevated temperatures. The FR activity was preserved even after an extensive water-leaching test, confirmed by the limiting oxygen index (LOI) and cone calorimetry. The reduction of fire hazards was achieved through the increase of the LOI to above 80%, reduction of 30% of the peak heat release rate (pHRR2), reduction of smoke production, and a longer ignition time. The modulus of elasticity of FR-modified wood increased by 40% without significantly decreasing the modulus of rupture.
41.	Lin, Chia-Feng, et al. (author) Phosphorylated and carbamylated Kraft lignin for improving fire- and biological-resistance of Scots pine wood 2024 In: International Journal of Biological Macromolecules. - : Elsevier. - 0141-8130 .- 1879-0003. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract In this study, Kraft lignin was modified by ammonium dihydrogen phosphate (ADP) and urea for achieving phosphorylation and carbamylation, aiming to protect wood against biological and fire attack. Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) sapwood was impregnated with a water solution containing Kraft lignin, ADP, and urea, followed by heat treatment at 150 °C, resulting in changes in the properties of the Kraft lignin as well as the wood matrix. Infrared spectroscopy, 13C cross-polarisation magic-angle-spinning (MAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), and direct excitation single-pulse 31P MAS NMR analyses suggested the grafting reaction of phosphate and carbamylate groups onto the hydroxyl groups of Kraft lignin. Scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy indicated that the condensed Kraft lignin filled the lumen as well as partially penetrating the wood cell wall. The modified Kraft lignin imparted fire-retardancy and increased char residue to the wood at elevated temperature, as confirmed by limiting oxygen index, microscale combustion calorimetry, and thermogravimetric analysis. The modified wood exhibited superior resistance against mold and decay fungi attack under laboratory conditions. The modified wood had a similar modulus of elasticity to the unmodified wood, while experiencing a reduction in the modulus of rupture.
42.	Marbuah, George, et al. (author) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Ghana: Does the Measure of Financial Development Matter 2013 In: Review of Development Finance. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-9337. ; 3, s. 192-203 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the long-run growth effects of financial development in Ghana. We find that the growth effect of financial development is sensitive to the choice of proxy. Both the credit to the private sector as ratios to GDP and total domestic credit are conducive for growth, while broad money stock to GDP ratio is not growth-inducing. The indexes created from principal component analysis confirmed the sensitivity of the effect to the choice of proxy. The findings here suggest that whether financial development is good or bad for growth depends on the indicator used to proxy for financial development.
43.	Marbuah, George, et al. (author) Spatial analysis of emissions in Sweden 2017 In: Energy Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0140-9883 .- 1873-6181. ; 68, s. 383-394 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract This paper contributes to the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) literature, which posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between pollution and income, but from a spatial perspective. We explore several spatial statistical and econometric analyses to account for spatial dependence in emissions from carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, particulate matter (2.5 and 10) and total suspended particulates between all 290 Swedish municipalities. Our results suggest the EKC significantly holds for all but one pollutant (i.e. carbon monoxide) and that this relationship is significantly characterized by spatial dependence. Specifically, we find significant neighbourhood effects as well as significant positive economic spillovers at low income which turns negative at high income on both within and inter-municipality air emissions. Our results and hence implications suggest transboundary pollution control policies aimed at abatement would be more effective through enhanced coordination between adjacent municipalities.
44.	Mensah, George A., et al. (author) From Data to Action: Neuroepidemiology Informs Implementation Research for Global Stroke Prevention and Treatment 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 221-229 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract As a scientific field of study, neuroepidemiology encompasses more than just the descriptive study of the frequency, distribution, determinants and outcomes of neurologic diseases in populations. It also includes experimental aspects that span the full spectrum of clinical and population science research. As such, neuroepidemiology has a strong potential to inform implementation research for global stroke prevention and treatment. This review begins with an overview of the progress that has been made in descriptive and experimental neuroepidemiology over the past quarter century with emphasis on standards for evidence generation, critical appraisal of that evidence and impact on clinical and public health practice at the national, regional and global levels. Specific advances made in high-income countries as well as in low- and middle-income countries are presented. Gaps in implementation as well as evidence gaps in stroke research, stroke burden, clinical outcomes and disparities between developed and developing countries are then described. The continuing need for high quality neuroepidemiologic data in low- and middle-income countries is highlighted. Additionally, persisting disparities in stroke burden and care by sex, race, ethnicity, income and socioeconomic status are discussed. The crucial role that national stroke registries have played in neuroepidemiologic research is also addressed. Opportunities presented by new directions in comparative effectiveness and implementation research are discussed as avenues for turning neuroepidemiological insights into action to maximize health impact and to guide further biomedical research on neurological diseases.
45.	Mensah, George A, et al. (author) Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022 2023 In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 82:25, s. 2350-2473 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
46.	Mensah, George A., et al. (author) The Global Burden of Stroke 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 143-145 Journal article (other academic/artistic)
47.	Mokdad, Ali H., et al. (author) Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study 2018 In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
48.	Norrving, Bo, et al. (author) Stroke Prevention Worldwide - What Could Make It Work? 2015 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0208 .- 0251-5350. ; 45:3, s. 215-220 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The global burden of stroke is of continual major importance for global health. The present report addresses some of the core principles that could make stroke prevention work. The prevention of stroke shares many common features with other non-communicable diseases (NCDs); stroke prevention should therefore be part of the joint actions on NCD led by the WHO and member states. Stroke prevention is an integral part of both the 2011 UN declaration on actions on NCDs and the UN Post-2015 Sustainable Developmental Goals. Stroke prevention requires an intersectoral approach, with important responsibilities on the part of governmental bodies, non-government organizations and the health sector as well as communities, industries and individuals. Although official development assistance will need to be provided for the lowest income countries, financing will need to be raised for most countries by reallocation of resources within the country. Stroke is a prototype NCD in that there is overwhelming scientific evidence that with actions taken to reduce risk factors, the risk of stroke can be substantially reduced. Prevention of stroke will also have beneficial effects on cognitive decline and dementia. As most strokes do not lead to death, stroke statistics should not only focus on mortality, but also on disability and quality of life. All preventive actions should start early in life and continue during the life cycle. Prevention of stroke is a complex medical and a political issue with many challenges. Upscaling of efforts to prevent stroke are urgently needed in all regions, and the opportunity to act is now.
49.	Noruwa, Bolanle, et al. (author) Institutional foundations of construction ICT : A view from the West Midlands of England 2018 In: Proceeding of the 34th Annual ARCOM Conference, ARCOM 2018. - : Association of Researchers in Construction Management (ARCOM). ; , s. 37-46 Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract Construction industry is of strategic importance to economic development and growth within any region and nation. However, the industry is confronted by many challenges including poor labour productivity. Part of the explanation frequently provided in literature is that the industry has been slow to adopt and institutionalize useful information and communication technologies (ICT). The research questions asked in this article are: What are the institutional foundations for West-Midlands construction firms to deliver their projects based on ICT and how can these be strengthened? These questions are asked for two reasons. The first is to understand the reasons behind slow ICT adoption and second, to inquire into what can be done about it. The article provides an overview of projects using advanced ICT in the region and presents the results of a focus group discussion undertaken with six industry experts. Scott's pillars of institutions were used for understanding how the foundations for ICT adaption in the region can be strengthened. Findings are that present regulations, incentives and perceptions of ICT can be further strengthened. While ICT adoption appears to accelerate in large projects, many practitioners remain sceptical as to whether the excessive costs associated with ICT adoptions are justified. The regulative pressures exerted by government in support of ICT adoption do not seem to have fully materialised in industrial practice. However, it is apparent that the normative and cultural cognitive pressures are rendered weak in the region with using advanced ICT being viewed as extraordinary rather than standard industrial practice.
50.	Pandian, Jeyaraj Durai, et al. (author) Strategies to Improve Stroke Care Services in Low- and Middle-Income Countries : A Systematic Review 2017 In: Neuroepidemiology. - : S. Karger AG. - 0251-5350 .- 1423-0208. ; 49, s. 45-61 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: The burden of stroke in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is large and increasing, challenging the already stretched health-care services. Aims and Objectives: To determine the quality of existing stroke-care services in LMICs and to highlight indigenous, inexpensive, evidence-based implementable strategies being used in stroke-care. Methods: A detailed literature search was undertaken using PubMed and Google scholar from January 1966 to October 2015 using a range of search terms. Of 921 publications, 373 papers were shortlisted and 31 articles on existing stroke-services were included. Results: We identified efficient models of ambulance transport and pre-notification. Stroke Units (SU) are available in some countries, but are relatively sparse and mostly provided by the private sector. Very few patients were thrombolysed; this could be increased with telemedicine and governmental subsidies. Adherence to secondary preventive drugs is affected by limited availability and affordability, emphasizing the importance of primary prevention. Training of paramedics, care-givers and nurses in post-stroke care is feasible. Conclusion: In this systematic review, we found several reports on evidence-based implementable stroke services in LMICs. Some strategies are economic, feasible and reproducible but remain untested. Data on their outcomes and sustainability is limited. Further research on implementation of locally and regionally adapted stroke-services and cost-effective secondary prevention programs should be a priority.

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