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1.	Afshin, Ashkan, et al. (author) Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2019 In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
2.	Bhat, Saiuj, et al. (author) Healthy Food Prescription Programs and their Impact on Dietary Behavior and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. 2021 In: Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.). - : Oxford University Press. - 2156-5376 .- 2161-8313. ; 12:5, s. 1944-1956 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The enormous burden of diet-related chronic diseases has prompted interest in healthy food prescription programs. Yet, the impact of such programs remains unclear. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of healthy food prescription programs and evaluate their impact on dietary behavior and cardiometabolic parameters by meta-analysis. A systematic search was carried out in Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases since their inception to 3 January, 2020 without language restriction. A systematic search of interventional studies investigating the effect of healthy food prescription on diet quality and/or cardiometabolic risk factors including BMI, systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), or blood lipids was carried out. Thirteen studies were identified for inclusion, most of which were quasi-experimental (pre/post) interventions without a control group (n = 9). Pooled estimates revealed a 22% (95% CI: 12, 32; n = 5 studies, n = 1039 participants; I2 = 97%) increase in fruit and vegetable consumption, corresponding to 0.8 higher daily servings (95% CI: 0.2, 1.4; I2 = 96%). BMI decreased by 0.6 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.1; I2 = 6.4%) and HbA1c by 0.8% (95% CI: 0.1, 1.6; I2 = 92%). No significant change was observed in other cardiometabolic parameters. These findings should be interpreted with caution in light of considerable heterogeneity, methodological limitations of the included studies, and moderate to very low certainty of evidence. Our results support the need for well-designed, large, randomized controlled trials in various settings to further establish the efficacy of healthy food prescription programs on diet quality and cardiometabolic health.
3.	Del Gobbo, Liana C., et al. (author) omega-3 Polyunsaturated Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Coronary Heart Disease Pooling Project of 19 Cohort Studies 2016 In: JAMA Internal Medicine. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6106 .- 2168-6114. ; 176:8, s. 1155-1166 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract IMPORTANCE The role of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids for primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) remains controversial. Most prior longitudinal studies evaluated self-reported consumption rather than biomarkers. OBJECTIVE To evaluate biomarkers of seafood-derived eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA; 20: 5 omega-3), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA; 22: 5 omega-3), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA; 22: 6 omega-3) and plant-derived alpha-linolenic acid (ALA; 18: 3 omega-3) for incident CHD. DATA SOURCES A global consortium of 19 studies identified by November 2014. STUDY SELECTION Available prospective (cohort, nested case-control) or retrospective studies with circulating or tissue omega-3 biomarkers and ascertained CHD. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Each study conducted standardized, individual-level analysis using harmonized models, exposures, outcomes, and covariates. Findings were centrally pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was examined by age, sex, race, diabetes, statins, aspirin, omega-6 levels, and FADS desaturase genes. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incident total CHD, fatal CHD, and nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI). RESULTS The 19 studies comprised 16 countries, 45 637 unique individuals, and 7973 total CHD, 2781 fatal CHD, and 7157 nonfatal MI events, with omega-3 measures in total plasma, phospholipids, cholesterol esters, and adipose tissue. Median age at baseline was 59 years (range, 18-97 years), and 28 660 (62.8%) were male. In continuous (per 1-SD increase) multivariable-adjusted analyses, the omega-3 biomarkers ALA, DPA, and DHA were associated with a lower risk of fatal CHD, with relative risks (RRs) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.84-0.98) for ALA, 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.96) for DPA, and 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.96) for DHA. Although DPA was associated with a lower risk of total CHD (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.99), ALA (RR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.95-1.05), EPA (RR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.87-1.02), and DHA (RR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-1.00) were not. Significant associations with nonfatal MI were not evident. Associations appeared generally stronger in phospholipids and total plasma. Restricted cubic splines did not identify evidence of nonlinearity in dose responses. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE On the basis of available studies of free-living populations globally, biomarker concentrations of seafood and plant-derived omega-3 fatty acids are associated with a modestly lower incidence of fatal CHD.
4.	Ding, Ming, et al. (author) Dairy consumption, systolic blood pressure, and risk of hypertension : Mendelian randomization study 2017 In: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833 .- 0959-8138. ; 356 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVE To examine whether previous observed inverse associations of dairy intake with systolic blood pressure and risk of hypertension were causal. DESIGN Mendelian randomization study using the single nucleotide polymorphism rs4988235 related to lactase persistence as an instrumental variable. SETTING CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium. PARTICIPANTS Data from 22 studies with 171 213 participants, and an additional 10 published prospective studies with 26 119 participants included in the observational analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The instrumental variable estimation was conducted using the ratio of coefficients approach. Using metaanalysis, an additional eight published randomized clinical trials on the association of dairy consumption with systolic blood pressure were summarized. RESULTS Compared with the CC genotype (CC is associated with complete lactase deficiency), the CT/TT genotype (TT is associated with lactose persistence, and CT is associated with certain lactase deficiency) of LCT-13910 (lactase persistence gene) rs4988235 was associated with higher dairy consumption (0.23 (about 55 g/day), 95% confidence interval 0.17 to 0.29) serving/day; P<0.001) and was not associated with systolic blood pressure (0.31, 95% confidence interval -0.05 to 0.68 mm Hg; P=0.09) or risk of hypertension (odds ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.05; P=0.27). Using LCT-13910 rs4988235 as the instrumental variable, genetically determined dairy consumption was not associated with systolic blood pressure (beta=1.35, 95% confidence interval -0.28 to 2.97 mm Hg for each serving/day) or risk of hypertension (odds ratio 1.04, 0.88 to 1.24). Moreover, meta-analysis of the published clinical trials showed that higher dairy intake has no significant effect on change in systolic blood pressure for interventions over one month to 12 months (intervention compared with control groups: beta=-0.21, 95% confidence interval -0.98 to 0.57 mm Hg). In observational analysis, each serving/day increase in dairy consumption was associated with -0.11 (95% confidence interval -0.20 to -0.02 mm Hg; P=0.02) lower systolic blood pressure but not risk of hypertension (odds ratio 0.98, 0.97 to 1.00; P=0.11). CONCLUSION The weak inverse association between dairy intake and systolic blood pressure in observational studies was not supported by a comprehensive instrumental variable analysis and systematic review of existing clinical trials.
5.	Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. 2015 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
6.	Fretts, Amanda M., et al. (author) Associations of circulating very-long-chain saturated fatty acids and incident type 2 diabetes : a pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies 2019 In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 109:4, s. 1216-1223 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Saturated fatty acids (SFAs) of different chain lengths have unique metabolic and biological effects, and a small number of recent studies suggest that higher circulating concentrations of the very-long-chain SFAs (VLSFAs) arachidic acid (20:0), behenic acid (22:0), and lignoceric acid (24:0) are associated with a lower risk of diabetes. Confirmation of these findings in a large and diverse population is needed.Objective: We investigated the associations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident type 2 diabetes in prospective studies.Methods: Twelve studies that are part of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium participated in the analysis. Using Cox or logistic regression within studies and an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across studies, we examined the associations of VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 with incident diabetes among 51,431 participants.Results: There were 14,276 cases of incident diabetes across participating studies. Higher circulating concentrations of 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 were each associated with a lower risk of incident diabetes. Pooling across cohorts, the RR (95% CI) for incident diabetes comparing the 90th percentile to the 10th percentile was 0.78 (0.70, 0.87) for 20:0, 0.84 (0.77, 0.91) for 22:0, and 0.75 (0.69, 0.83) for 24:0 after adjustment for demographic, lifestyle, adiposity, and other health factors. Results were fully attenuated in exploratory models that adjusted for circulating 16:0 and triglycerides.Conclusions: Results from this pooled analysis indicate that higher concentrations of circulating VLSFAs 20:0, 22:0, and 24:0 are each associated with a lower risk of diabetes.
7.	Fretts, Amanda M., et al. (author) Consumption of meat is associated with higher fasting glucose and insulin concentrations regardless of glucose and insulin genetic risk scores : a meta-analysis of 50,345 Caucasians 2015 In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 102:5, s. 1266-1278 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Recent studies suggest that meat intake is associated with diabetes-related phenotypes. However, whether the associations of meat intake and glucose and insulin homeostasis are modified by genes related to glucose and insulin is unknown. Objective: We investigated the associations of meat intake and the interaction of meat with genotype on fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in Caucasians free of diabetes mellitus. Design: Fourteen studies that are part of the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium participated in the analysis. Data were provided for up to 50,345 participants. Using linear regression within studies and a fixed-effects meta-analysis across studies, we examined l) the associations of processed meat and unprocessed red meat intake with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations; and 2) the interactions of processed meat and unprocessed red meat with genetic risk score related to fasting glucose or insulin resistance on fasting glucose and insulin concentrations. Results: Processed meat was associated with higher fasting glucose, and unprocessed red meat was associated with both higher fasting glucose and fasting insulin concentrations after adjustment for potential confounders [not including body mass index (BMI)]. For every additional 50-g serving of processed meat per day, fasting glucose was 0.021 mmol/L (95% CI: 0.011, 0.030 mmol/L) higher. Every additional 100-g serving of unprocessed red meat per day was associated with a 0.037-mmol/L (95% CI: 0.023, 0.051-mmol/L) higher fasting glucose concentration and a 0.049-1n-pmon (95% CI: 0.035, 0.063-1n-pmol/L) higher fasting insulin concentration. After additional adjustment for BMI, observed associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant. The association of processed meat and fasting insulin did not reach statistical significance after correction for multiple comparisons. Observed associations were not modified by genetic loci known to influence fasting glucose or insulin resistance. Conclusion: The association of higher fasting glucose and insulin concentrations with meat consumption was not modified by an index of glucose- and insulin-related single-nucleotide polymorphisms.
8.	Hruby, Adela, et al. (author) Higher Magnesium Intake Is Associated with Lower Fasting Glucose and Insulin, with No Evidence of Interaction with Select Genetic Loci, in a Meta-Analysis of 15 CHARGE Consortium Studies 2013 In: Journal of Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3166 .- 1541-6100. ; 143:3, s. 345-353 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Favorable associations between magnesium intake and glycemic traits, such as fasting glucose and insulin, are observed in observational and clinical studies, but whether genetic variation affects these associations is largely unknown. We hypothesized that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with either glycemic traits or magnesium metabolism affect the association between magnesium intake and fasting glucose and insulin. Fifteen studies from the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium provided data from up to 52,684 participants of European descent without known diabetes. In fixed-effects meta-analyses, we quantified 1) cross-sectional associations of dietary magnesium intake with fasting glucose (mmol/L) and insulin (In-pmol/L) and 2) interactions between magnesium intake and SNPs related to fasting glucose (16 SNPs), insulin (2 SNPs), or magnesium (8 SNPs) on fasting glucose and insulin. After adjustment for age, sex, energy intake, BMI, and behavioral risk factors, magnesium (per 50-mg/d increment) was inversely associated with fasting glucose [beta = -0.009 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.013, -0.005), P< 0.0001] and insulin (-0.020 In-pmo/L (95% CI: -0.024, -0.017), P< 0.0001]. No magnesium-related SNP or interaction between any SNP and magnesium reached significance after correction for multiple testing. However, rs2274924 in magnesium transporter-encoding TRPM6 showed a nominal association (uncorrected P= 0.03) with glucose, and rs11558471 in SLC30A8and rs3740393 near CNNM2showed a nominal interaction (uncorrected, both P = 0.02) with magnesium on glucose. Consistent with other studies, a higher magnesium intake was associated with lower fasting glucose and insulin. Nominal evidence of TRPM6 influence and magnesium interaction with select loci suggests that further investigation is warranted. J. Nutr. 143: 345-353, 2013.
9.	Huang, Tao, et al. (author) Dairy Consumption and Body Mass Index Among Adults : Mendelian Randomization Analysis of 184802 Individuals from 25 Studies 2018 In: Clinical Chemistry. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0009-9147 .- 1530-8561. ; 64:1, s. 183-191 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Associations between dairy intake and body mass index (BMI) have been inconsistently observed in epidemiological studies, and the causal relationship remains ill defined.METHODS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using an established dairy intake-associated genetic polymorphism located upstream of the lactase gene (LCT-13910 C/T, rs4988235) as an instrumental variable (IV). Linear regression models were fitted to analyze associations between (a) dairy intake and BMI, (b) rs4988235 and dairy intake, and (c) rs4988235 and BMI in each study. The causal effect of dairy intake on BMI was quantified by IV estimators among 184802 participants from 25 studies.RESULTS: Higher dairy intake was associated with higher BMI (β = 0.03 kg/m2 per serving/day; 95% CI, 0.00–0.06; P = 0.04), whereas the LCT genotype with 1 or 2 T allele was significantly associated with 0.20 (95% CI, 0.14–0.25) serving/day higher dairy intake (P = 3.15 × 10−12) and 0.12 (95% CI, 0.06–0.17) kg/m2 higher BMI (P = 2.11 × 10−5). MR analysis showed that the genetically determined higher dairy intake was significantly associated with higher BMI (β = 0.60 kg/m2 per serving/day; 95% CI, 0.27–0.92; P = 3.0 × 10−4).CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides strong evidence to support a causal effect of higher dairy intake on increased BMI among adults.
10.	Imamura, Fumiaki, et al. (author) Fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat consumption and incidence of type 2 diabetes : A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies 2018 In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:10 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background We aimed to investigate prospective associations of circulating or adipose tissue odd-chain fatty acids 15: 0 and 17: 0 and trans-palmitoleic acid, t16:1n-7, as potential biomarkers of dairy fat intake, with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods and findings Sixteen prospective cohorts from 12 countries (7 from the United States, 7 from Europe, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan) performed new harmonised individual-level analysis for the prospective associations according to a standardised plan. In total, 63,682 participants with a broad range of baseline ages and BMIs and 15,180 incident cases of T2D over the average of 9 years of follow-up were evaluated. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Prespecified interactions by age, sex, BMI, and race/ethnicity were explored in each cohort and were meta-analysed. Potential heterogeneity by cohort-specific characteristics (regions, lipid compartments used for fatty acid assays) was assessed with metaregression. After adjustment for potential confounders, including measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) and lipogenesis (levels of palmitate, tri-glycerides), higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with lower incidence of T2D. In the most adjusted model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per cohort-specific 10th to 90th percentile range of 15:0 was 0.80 (0.73-0.87); of 17:0, 0.65 (0.59-0.72); of t16:1n7, 0.82 (0.70-0.96); and of their sum, 0.71 (0.63-0.79). In exploratory analyses, similar associations for 15:0, 17:0, and the sum of all three fatty acids were present in both genders but stronger in women than in men ((pinteraction) < 0.001). Whereas studying associations with biomarkers has several advantages, as limitations, the biomarkers do not distinguish between different food sources of dairy fat (e.g., cheese, yogurt, milk), and residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders may exist. Conclusions In a large meta-analysis that pooled the findings from 16 prospective cohort studies, higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with a lower risk of T2D.
11.	Imamura, Fumiaki, et al. (author) Fatty acids in the de novo lipogenesis pathway and incidence of type 2 diabetes : A pooled analysis of prospective cohort studies 2020 In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 17:6 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BackgroundDe novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D).Methods and findingsSeventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970–1973 to 2006–2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3–75.5 years; % women = 20.4%–62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41–1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33–1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05–1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07–1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%–73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94–1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors.ConclusionsConcentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D.
12.	Kim, David D., et al. (author) Development and Validation of the US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) Model : Health Disparity and Economic Impact Model 2023 In: Medical decision making. - 0272-989X .- 1552-681X. ; 43:7-8, s. 930-948 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Few simulation models have incorporated the interplay of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD); their upstream lifestyle and biological risk factors; and their downstream effects on health disparities and economic consequences.METHODS: We developed and validated a US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) model that incorporates demographic, clinical, and lifestyle risk factors to jointly predict overall and racial-ethnic groups-specific obesity, diabetes, CVD, and cause-specific mortality for the US adult population aged 40 to 79 y at baseline. An individualized health care cost prediction model was further developed and integrated. This model incorporates nationally representative data on baseline demographics, lifestyle, health, and cause-specific mortality; dynamic changes in modifiable risk factors over time; and parameter uncertainty using probabilistic distributions. Validation analyses included assessment of 1) population-level risk calibration and 2) individual-level risk discrimination. To illustrate the application of the DOC-M model, we evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a national produce prescription program.RESULTS: Comparing the 15-y model-predicted population risk of primary outcomes among the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort with the observed prevalence from age-matched cross-sectional 2003-2016 NHANES cohorts, calibration performance was strong based on observed-to-expected ratio and calibration plot analysis. In most cases, Brier scores fell below 0.0004, indicating a low overall prediction error. Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts, the c-statistics for assessing individual-level risk discrimination were 0.85 to 0.88 for diabetes, 0.93 to 0.95 for obesity, 0.74 to 0.76 for CVD history, and 0.78 to 0.81 for all-cause mortality, both overall and in three racial-ethnic groups. Open-source code for the model was posted at https://github.com/food-price/DOC-M-Model-Development-and-Validation.CONCLUSIONS: The validated DOC-M model can be used to examine health, equity, and the economic impact of health policies and interventions on behavioral and clinical risk factors for obesity, diabetes, and CVD.HIGHLIGHTS: We developed a novel microsimula'tion model for obesity, diabetes, and CVD, which intersect together and - critically for prevention and treatment interventions - share common lifestyle, biologic, and demographic risk factors.Validation analyses, including assessment of (1) population-level risk calibration and (2) individual-level risk discrimination, showed strong performance across the overall population and three major racial-ethnic groups for 6 outcomes (obesity, diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality, CVD- and DM-cause mortality)This paper provides a thorough explanation and documentation of the development and validation process of a novel microsimulation model, along with the open-source code (https://github.com/food-price/ DOCM_validation) for public use, to serve as a guide for future simulation model assessments, validation, and implementation.
13.	Lai, Heidi T. M., et al. (author) Trans Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Type 2 Diabetes : Pooled Analysis of 12 Prospective Cohort Studies in the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE) 2022 In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 45:4, s. 854-863 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVE: Trans fatty acids (TFAs) have harmful biologic effects that could increase the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of TFA biomarkers and T2D by conducting an individual participant-level pooled analysis.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We included data from an international consortium of 12 prospective cohorts and nested case-control studies from six nations. TFA biomarkers were measured in blood collected between 1990 and 2008 from 25,126 participants aged >= 18 years without prevalent diabetes. Each cohort conducted de novo harmonized analyses using a prespecified protocol, and findings were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by prespecified between-study and within-study characteristics.RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 2,843 cases of incident T2D were identified. In multivariable-adjusted pooled analyses, no significant associations with T2D were identified for trans/trans-18:2, relative risk (RR) 1.09 (95% CI 0.94-1.25); cis/trans-18:2, 0.89 (0.73-1.07); and trans/cis-18:2, 0.87 (0.73-1.03). Trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated with T2D (RR 0.81 [95% CI 0.67-0.99], 0.86 [0.75-0.99], and 0.84 [0.74-0.96], respectively). Findings were not significantly different according to prespecified sources of potential heterogeneity (each P >= 0.1).CONCLUSIONS: Circulating individual trans-18:2 TFA biomarkers were not associated with risk of T2D, while trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated. Findings may reflect the influence of mixed TFA sources (industrial vs. natural ruminant), a general decline in TFA exposure due to policy changes during this period, or the relatively limited range of TFA levels.
14.	Lee, Yujin, et al. (author) Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Volume, Tiered, and Absolute Sugar Content Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policies in the United States : A Microsimulation Study. 2020 In: Circulation. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 142:6, s. 523-534 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction.METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources.RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans.CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.
15.	Lim, Stephen S, et al. (author) A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. 2012 In: Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 380:9859, s. 2224-60 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
16.	Marklund, Matti, et al. (author) Biomarkers of Dietary Omega-6 Fatty Acids and Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality : An Individual-Level Pooled Analysis of 30 Cohort Studies 2019 In: Circulation. - : American Heart Association. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 139:21, s. 2422-2436 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background:Global dietary recommendations for and cardiovascular effects of linoleic acid, the major dietary omega-6 fatty acid, and its major metabolite, arachidonic acid, remain controversial. To address this uncertainty and inform international recommendations, we evaluated how in vivo circulating and tissue levels of linoleic acid (LA) and arachidonic acid (AA) relate to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) across multiple international studies.Methods:We performed harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses in a global consortium of 30 prospective observational studies from 13 countries. Multivariable-adjusted associations of circulating and adipose tissue LA and AA biomarkers with incident total CVD and subtypes (coronary heart disease, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality) were investigated according to a prespecified analytic plan. Levels of LA and AA, measured as the percentage of total fatty acids, were evaluated linearly according to their interquintile range (ie, the range between the midpoint of the first and fifth quintiles), and categorically by quintiles. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by age, sex, race, diabetes mellitus, statin use, aspirin use, omega-3 levels, and fatty acid desaturase 1 genotype (when available).Results:In 30 prospective studies with medians of follow-up ranging 2.5 to 31.9 years, 15198 incident cardiovascular events occurred among 68659 participants. Higher levels of LA were significantly associated with lower risks of total CVD, cardiovascular mortality, and ischemic stroke, with hazard ratios per interquintile range of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.99), 0.78 (0.70-0.85), and 0.88 (0.79-0.98), respectively, and nonsignificantly with lower coronary heart disease risk (0.94; 0.88-1.00). Relationships were similar for LA evaluated across quintiles. AA levels were not associated with higher risk of cardiovascular outcomes; in a comparison of extreme quintiles, higher levels were associated with lower risk of total CVD (0.92; 0.86-0.99). No consistent heterogeneity by population subgroups was identified in the observed relationships.Conclusions:In pooled global analyses, higher in vivo circulating and tissue levels of LA and possibly AA were associated with lower risk of major cardiovascular events. These results support a favorable role for LA in CVD prevention.
17.	Marklund, Matti, et al. (author) Estimated population wide benefits and risks in China of lowering sodium through potassium enriched salt substitution : modelling study 2020 In: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 369 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of nationwide replacement of discretionary salt (used at table or during cooking) with potassium enriched salt substitute on morbidity and death from cardiovascular disease in China.DESIGN: Modelling study.SETTING: China.POPULATION: Adult population in China, and specifically individuals with chronic kidney disease (about 17 million people).INTERVENTIONS: Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the effects of a nationwide intervention to replace discretionary dietary salt with potassium enriched salt substitutes (20-30% potassium chloride). The models incorporated existing data and corresponding uncertainties from randomised trials, the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease, the Global Burden of Disease Study, and the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted deaths from cardiovascular disease, non-fatal events, and disability adjusted life years from a reduction in blood pressure were estimated after implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, additional deaths from cardiovascular disease related to hyperkalaemia from increased intake of potassium were calculated. The net effects on deaths from cardiovascular disease were estimated as the difference and ratio of averted and additional deaths from cardiovascular disease.RESULTS: Nationwide implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution could prevent about 461 000 (95% uncertainty interval 196 339 to 704 438) deaths annually from cardiovascular disease, corresponding to 11.0% (4.7% to 16.8%) of annual deaths from cardiovascular disease in China; 743 000 (305 803 to 1 273 098) non-fatal cardiovascular events annually; and 7.9 (3.3 to 12.9) million disability adjusted life years related to cardiovascular disease annually. The intervention could potentially produce an estimated 11 000 (6422 to 16 562) additional deaths related to hyperkalaemia in individuals with chronic kidney disease. The net effect would be about 450 000 (183 699 to 697 084) fewer deaths annually from cardiovascular disease in the overall population and 21 000 (1928 to 42 926) fewer deaths in individuals with chronic kidney disease. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, with changes to key model inputs and assumptions, net benefits were consistent in the total population and in individuals with chronic kidney disease, with averted deaths outweighing additional deaths.CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide potassium enriched salt substitution in China was estimated to result in a substantial net benefit, preventing around one in nine deaths from cardiovascular disease overall. Taking account of the risks of hyperkalaemia, a substantial net benefit was also estimated for individuals with chronic kidney disease.
18.	McKeown, Nicola M., et al. (author) Sugar-sweetened beverage intake associations with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations are not modified by selected genetic variants in a ChREBP-FGF21 pathway : a meta-analysis 2018 In: Diabetologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 61:2, s. 317-330 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Aims/hypothesis: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major dietary contributor to fructose intake. A molecular pathway involving the carbohydrate responsive element-binding protein (ChREBP) and the metabolic hormone fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) may influence sugar metabolism and, thereby, contribute to fructose-induced metabolic disease. We hypothesise that common variants in 11 genes involved in fructose metabolism and the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway may interact with SSB intake to exacerbate positive associations between higher SSB intake and glycaemic traits. Methods: Data from 11 cohorts (six discovery and five replication) in the CHARGE (Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology) Consortium provided association and interaction results from 34,748 adults of European descent. SSB intake (soft drinks, fruit punches, lemonades or other fruit drinks) was derived from food-frequency questionnaires and food diaries. In fixed-effects meta-analyses, we quantified: (1) the associations between SSBs and glycaemic traits (fasting glucose and fasting insulin); and (2) the interactions between SSBs and 18 independent SNPs related to the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway. Results: In our combined meta-analyses of discovery and replication cohorts, after adjustment for age, sex, energy intake, BMI and other dietary covariates, each additional serving of SSB intake was associated with higher fasting glucose (β ± SE 0.014 ± 0.004 [mmol/l], p = 1.5 × 10−3) and higher fasting insulin (0.030 ± 0.005 [loge pmol/l], p = 2.0 × 10−10). No significant interactions on glycaemic traits were observed between SSB intake and selected SNPs. While a suggestive interaction was observed in the discovery cohorts with a SNP (rs1542423) in the β-Klotho (KLB) locus on fasting insulin (0.030 ± 0.011 loge pmol/l, uncorrected p = 0.006), results in the replication cohorts and combined meta-analyses were non-significant. Conclusions/interpretation: In this large meta-analysis, we observed that SSB intake was associated with higher fasting glucose and insulin. Although a suggestive interaction with a genetic variant in the ChREBP-FGF21 pathway was observed in the discovery cohorts, this observation was not confirmed in the replication analysis. Trial registration: Trials related to this study were registered at clinicaltrials.govas NCT00005131 (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), NCT00005133 (Cardiovascular Health Study), NCT00005121 (Framingham Offspring Study), NCT00005487 (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and NCT00005152 (Nurses’ Health Study).
19.	Merino, Jordi, et al. (author) Quality of dietary fat and genetic risk of type 2 diabetes : individual participant data meta-analysis 2019 In: BMJ. British Medical Journal. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0959-8146 .- 0959-535X. ; 366 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVE To investigate whether the genetic burden of type 2 diabetes modifies the association between the quality of dietary fat and the incidence of type 2 diabetes.DESIGN Individual participant data meta-analysis.DATA SOURCES Eligible prospective cohort studies were systematically sourced from studies published between January 1970 and February 2017 through electronic searches in major medical databases (Medline, Embase, and Scopus) and discussion with investigators.REVIEW METHODS Data from cohort studies or multicohort consortia with available genome-wide genetic data and information about the quality of dietary fat and the incidence of type 2 diabetes in participants of European descent was sought. Prospective cohorts that had accrued five or more years of follow-up were included. The type 2 diabetes genetic risk profile was characterized by a 68-variant polygenic risk score weighted by published effect sizes. Diet was recorded by using validated cohort-specific dietary assessment tools. Outcome measures were summary adjusted hazard ratios of incident type 2 diabetes for polygenic risk score, isocaloric replacement of carbohydrate (refined starch and sugars) with types of fat, and the interaction of types of fat with polygenic risk score.RESULTS Of 102 305 participants from 15 prospective cohort studies, 20 015 type 2 diabetes cases were documented after a median follow-up of 12 years (interquartile range 9.4-14.2). The hazard ratio of type 2 diabetes per increment of 10 risk alleles in the polygenic risk score was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.54 to 1.75, I-2 = 7.1%, tau(2) = 0.003). The increase of polyunsaturated fat and total omega 6 polyunsaturated fat intake in place of carbohydrate was associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes, with hazard ratios of 0.90 (0.82 to 0.98, I-2 = 18.0%, tau(2) = 0.006; per 5% of energy) and 0.99 (0.97 to 1.00, I-2 = 58.8%, tau(2) = 0.001; per increment of 1 g/d), respectively. Increasing monounsaturated fat in place of carbohydrate was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 1.10, 95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.19, I-2 = 25.9%, tau(2) = 0.006; per 5% of energy). Evidence of small study effects was detected for the overall association of polyunsaturated fat with the risk of type 2 diabetes, but not for the omega 6 polyunsaturated fat and monounsaturated fat associations. Significant interactions between dietary fat and polygenic risk score on the risk of type 2 diabetes (P>0.05 for interaction) were not observed.CONCLUSIONS These data indicate that genetic burden and the quality of dietary fat are each associated with the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The findings do not support tailoring recommendations on the quality of dietary fat to individual type 2 diabetes genetic risk profiles for the primary prevention of type 2 diabetes, and suggest that dietary fat is associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes across the spectrum of type 2 diabetes genetic risk.
20.	Murphy, Rachel A, et al. (author) Omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid biomarkers and sleep : a pooled analysis of cohort studies On behalf of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE). 2022 In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 115:3, s. 864-876 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have physiologic roles in sleep processes, but little is known regarding circulating n-3 and n-6 PUFA and sleep parameters.OBJECTIVES: To assess associations between biomarkers of n-3 and n-6 PUFA intake with self-reported sleep duration and difficulty falling sleeping in the Fatty Acids and Outcome Research Consortium.METHODS: Harmonized, de novo, individual-level analyses were performed and pooled across 12 cohorts. Participants were between 35 to 96 years old and from 5 nations. Circulating measures included alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), EPA + DPA + DHA, linoleic acid and arachidonic acid. Sleep duration (10 cohorts, N = 18,791) was categorized as short (≤6 hours), 7-8 hours (reference) or long (9 + hours). Difficulty falling sleeping (8 cohorts, N = 12,500) was categorized as yes or no. Associations between PUFAs, sleep duration, and difficulty falling sleeping were assessed by cross-sectional multinomial logistic regression using standardized protocols and covariates. Cohort-specific multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) per quintile of PUFAs were pooled with inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis.RESULTS: In pooled analysis adjusted for sociodemographics and health status, participants with higher very long-chain n-3 PUFAs were less likely to have long sleep duration. Comparing top vs. bottom quintiles, the multivariable-adjusted OR (95% confidence interval, CI) for long-sleep was 0.78 (0.65, 0.95) for DHA and for EPA + DPA + DHA, 0.76 (0.63, 0.93). Significant associations were not identified for ALA and n-6 PUFA with short sleep duration, or difficulty falling sleeping.CONCLUSIONS: Participants with higher levels of very long-chain n-3 PUFAs were less likely to have long sleep duration. While objective biomarkers reduce recall bias and misclassification, the cross-sectional design limits assessment of the temporal nature of this relationship. These novel findings across 12 cohorts highlight the need for experimental and biological assessments of very long-chain n-3 PUFAs and sleep duration.
21.	Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
22.	Nettleton, Jennifer A, et al. (author) Gene x dietary pattern interactions in obesity : analysis of up to 68 317 adults of European ancestry 2015 In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press. - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 24:16, s. 4728-4738 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Obesity is highly heritable. Genetic variants showing robust associationswith obesity traits have been identified through genome wide association studies. We investigated whether a composite score representing healthy diet modifies associations of these variants with obesity traits. Totally, 32 body mass index (BMI)- and 14 waist-hip ratio (WHR)-associated single nucleotide polymorphismswere genotyped, and genetic risk scores (GRS) were calculated in 18 cohorts of European ancestry (n = 68 317). Diet score was calculated based on self-reported intakes of whole grains, fish, fruits, vegetables, nuts/seeds (favorable) and red/processed meats, sweets, sugar-sweetened beverages and fried potatoes (unfavorable). Multivariable adjusted, linear regression within each cohort followed by inverse variance-weighted, fixed-effects meta-analysis was used to characterize: (a) associations of each GRS with BMI and BMI-adjustedWHR and (b) diet score modification of genetic associations with BMI and BMI-adjusted WHR. Nominally significant interactions (P = 0.006-0.04) were observed between the diet score and WHR-GRS (but not BMI-GRS), two WHR loci (GRB14 rs10195252; LYPLAL1 rs4846567) and two BMI loci (LRRN6C rs10968576; MTIF3 rs4771122), for the respective BMI-adjustedWHR or BMI outcomes. Although the magnitudes of these select interactions were small, our data indicated that associations between genetic predisposition and obesity traits were stronger with a healthier diet. Our findings generate interesting hypotheses; however, experimental and functional studies are needed to determine their clinical relevance.
23.	Nettleton, Jennifer A, et al. (author) Interactions of dietary whole-grain intake with fasting glucose- and insulin-related genetic loci in individuals of European descent : a meta-analysis of 14 cohort studies 2010 In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 33:12, s. 2684-2691 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Our results support the favorable association of whole-grain intake with fasting glucose and insulin and suggest a potential interaction between variation in GCKR and whole-grain intake in influencing fasting insulin concentrations.
24.	Nettleton, Jennifer A., et al. (author) Meta-Analysis Investigating Associations Between Healthy Diet and Fasting Glucose and Insulin Levels and Modification by Loci Associated With Glucose Homeostasis in Data From 15 Cohorts 2013 In: American Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0002-9262 .- 1476-6256. ; 177:2, s. 103-115 Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract Whether loci that influence fasting glucose (FG) and fasting insulin (FI) levels, as identified by genome-wide association studies, modify associations of diet with FG or FI is unknown. We utilized data from 15 US and European cohort studies comprising 51,289 persons without diabetes to test whether genotype and diet interact to influence FG or FI concentration. We constructed a diet score using study-specific quartile rankings for intakes of whole grains, fish, fruits, vegetables, and nuts/seeds (favorable) and red/processed meats, sweets, sugared beverages, and fried potatoes (unfavorable). We used linear regression within studies, followed by inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis, to quantify 1) associations of diet score with FG and FI levels and 2) interactions of diet score with 16 FG-associated loci and 2 FI-associated loci. Diet score (per unit increase) was inversely associated with FG ( 0.004 mmol/L, 95 confidence interval: 0.005, 0.003) and FI ( 0.008 ln-pmol/L, 95 confidence interval: 0.009, 0.007) levels after adjustment for demographic factors, lifestyle, and body mass index. Genotype variation at the studied loci did not modify these associations. Healthier diets were associated with lower FG and FI concentrations regardless of genotype at previously replicated FG- and FI-associated loci. Studies focusing on genomic regions that do not yield highly statistically significant associations from main-effect genome-wide association studies may be more fruitful in identifying diet-gene interactions.
25.	O'Keefe, James H., et al. (author) Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk : A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies 2024 In: Stroke. - : American Heart Association. - 0039-2499 .- 1524-4628. ; 55:1, s. 50-58 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND:The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear.METHODS:We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome.RESULTS:Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76–0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74–0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81–0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78–0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD.CONCLUSIONS:Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.
26.	Ong, Kwok Leung, et al. (author) Association of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with incident chronic kidney disease : pooled analysis of 19 cohorts 2023 In: BMJ. British Medical Journal. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0959-8146 .- 0959-535X. ; 380 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVE: To assess the prospective associations of circulating levels of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) biomarkers (including plant derived a linolenic acid and seafood derived eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid) with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD).DESIGN: Pooled analysis.DATA SOURCES: A consortium of 19 studies from 12 countries identified up to May 2020.STUDY SELECTION: Prospective studies with measured n-3 PUFA biomarker data and incident CKD based on estimated glomerular filtration rate.DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Each participating cohort conducted de novo analysis with prespecified and consistent exposures, outcomes, covariates, and models. The results were pooled across cohorts using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome of incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/ min/1.73 m(2). In a sensitivity analysis, incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and <75% of baseline rate.RESULTS: 25 570 participants were included in the primary outcome analysis and 4944 (19.3%) developed incident CKD during follow-up (weighted median 11.3 years). In multivariable adjusted models, higher levels of total seafood n-3 PUFAs were associated with a lower incident CKD risk (relative risk per interquintile range 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 0.98; P=0.009, I-2=9.9%). In categorical analyses, participants with total seafood n-3 PUFA level in the highest fifth had 13% lower risk of incident CKD compared with those in the lowest fifth (0.87, 0.80 to 0.96; P=0.005, I-2=0.0%). Plant derived a linolenic acid levels were not associated with incident CKD (1.00, 0.94 to 1.06; P=0.94, I-2=5.8%). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The association appeared consistent across subgroups by age (=60 v <60 years), estimated glomerular filtration rate (60-89 v =90 mL/min/1.73 m(2)), hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease at baseline.CONCLUSIONS: Higher seafood derived n-3 PUFA levels were associated with lower risk of incident CKD, although this association was not found for plant derived n-3 PUFAs. These results support a favourable role for seafood derived n-3 PUFAs in preventing CKD.
27.	Otto, Marcia C. de Oliveira, et al. (author) Genome-wide association meta-analysis of circulating odd-numbered chain saturated fatty acids : Results from the CHARGE Consortium 2018 In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 13:5 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Odd-numbered chain saturated fatty acids (OCSFA) have been associated with potential health benefits. Although some OCSFA (e.g., C15:0 and C17:0) are found in meats and dairy products, sources and metabolism of C19:0 and C23:0 are relatively unknown, and the influence of non-dietary determinants, including genetic factors, on circulating levels of OCSFA is not established.Objective: To elucidate the biological processes that influence circulating levels of OCSFA by investigating associations between genetic variation and OCSFA.Design: We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of plasma phospholipid/erythrocyte levels of C15:0, C17:0, C19:0, and C23:0 among 11,494 individuals of European descent. We also investigated relationships between specific single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the lactase (LCT) gene, associated with adult-onset lactase intolerance, with circulating levels of dairy-derived OCSFA, and evaluated associations of candidate sphingolipid genes with C23:0 levels.Results: We found no genome-wide significant evidence that common genetic variation is associated with circulating levels of C15:0 or C23:0. In two cohorts with available data, we identified one intronic SNP (rs13361131) in myosin X gene (MYO10) associated with C17:0 level (P = 1.37×10−8), and two intronic SNP (rs12874278 and rs17363566) in deleted in lymphocytic leukemia 1 (DLEU1) region associated with C19:0 level (P = 7.07×10−9). In contrast, when using a candidate-gene approach, we found evidence that three SNPs in LCT (rs11884924, rs16832067, and rs3816088) are associated with circulating C17:0 level (adjusted P = 4×10−2). In addition, nine SNPs in the ceramide synthase 4 (CERS4) region were associated with circulating C23:0 levels (adjusted P<5×10−2).Conclusions: Our findings suggest that circulating levels of OCSFA may be predominantly influenced by non-genetic factors. SNPs associated with C17:0 level in the LCT gene may reflect genetic influence in dairy consumption or in metabolism of dairy foods. SNPs associated with C23:0 may reflect a role of genetic factors in the synthesis of sphingomyelin.
28.	Qi, Qibin, et al. (author) FTO genetic variants, dietary intake and body mass index : insights from 177 330 individuals 2014 In: Human Molecular Genetics. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0964-6906 .- 1460-2083. ; 23:25, s. 6961-6972 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract FTO is the strongest known genetic susceptibility locus for obesity. Experimental studies in animals suggest the potential roles of FTO in regulating food intake. The interactive relation among FTO variants, dietary intake and body mass index (BMI) is complex and results from previous often small-scale studies in humans are highly inconsistent. We performed large-scale analyses based on data from 177 330 adults (154 439 Whites, 5776 African Americans and 17 115 Asians) from 40 studies to examine: (i) the association between the FTO-rs9939609 variant (or a proxy single-nucleotide polymorphism) and total energy and macronutrient intake and (ii) the interaction between the FTO variant and dietary intake on BMI. The minor allele (A-allele) of the FTO-rs9939609 variant was associated with higher BMI in Whites (effect per allele = 0.34 [0.31, 0.37] kg/m(2), P = 1.9 × 10(-105)), and all participants (0.30 [0.30, 0.35] kg/m(2), P = 3.6 × 10(-107)). The BMI-increasing allele of the FTO variant showed a significant association with higher dietary protein intake (effect per allele = 0.08 [0.06, 0.10] %, P = 2.4 × 10(-16)), and relative weak associations with lower total energy intake (-6.4 [-10.1, -2.6] kcal/day, P = 0.001) and lower dietary carbohydrate intake (-0.07 [-0.11, -0.02] %, P = 0.004). The associations with protein (P = 7.5 × 10(-9)) and total energy (P = 0.002) were attenuated but remained significant after adjustment for BMI. We did not find significant interactions between the FTO variant and dietary intake of total energy, protein, carbohydrate or fat on BMI. Our findings suggest a positive association between the BMI-increasing allele of FTO variant and higher dietary protein intake and offer insight into potential link between FTO, dietary protein intake and adiposity.
29.	Qian, Frank, et al. (author) n-3 Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Type 2 Diabetes : An Individual Participant-Level Pooling Project of 20 Prospective Cohort Studies 2021 In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 0149-5992 .- 1935-5548. ; 44:5, s. 1133-1142 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract OBJECTIVE Prospective associations between n-3 fatty acid biomarkers and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk are not consistent in individual studies. We aimed to summarize the prospective associations of biomarkers of alpha-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with T2D risk through an individual participant-level pooled analysis.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS For our analysis we incorporated data from a global consortium of 20 prospective studies from 14 countries. We included 65,147 participants who had blood measurements of ALA, EPA, DPA, or DHA and were free of diabetes at baseline. De novo harmonized analyses were performed in each cohort following a pre-specified protocol, and cohort-specific associations were pooled using inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis.RESULTS A total of 16,693 incident T2D cases were identified during follow-up (median follow-up ranging from 2.5 to 21.2 years). In pooled multivariable analysis, per interquintile range (difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles for each fatty acid), EPA, DPA, DHA, and their sum were associated with lower T2D incidence, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of 0.92 (0.87, 0.96), 0.79 (0.73, 0.85), 0.82 (0.76, 0.89), and 0.81 (0.75, 0.88), respectively (all P < 0.001). ALA was not associated with T2D (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.92, 1.02]) per interquintile range. Associations were robust across prespecified subgroups as well as in sensitivity analyses.CONCLUSIONS Higher circulating biomarkers of seafood-derived n-3 fatty acids, including EPA, DPA, DHA, and their sum, were associated with lower risk of T2D in a global consortium of prospective studies. The biomarker of plant-derived ALA was not significantly associated with T2D risk.
30.	Qian, Frank, et al. (author) Omega-3 Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Atrial Fibrillation 2023 In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 82:4, s. 336-349 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial.OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosa-pentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF.METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and sub-groups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis.RESULTS: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively.CONCLUSIONS: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained.
31.	Shangguan, Siyi, et al. (author) Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Achieving the National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative Voluntary Sugar Reduction Targets in the United States : A Microsimulation Study. 2021 In: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 144:17, s. 1362-1376 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear.METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education.RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans.CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.
32.	Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author) Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 2018 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
33.	Tanaka, Toshiko, et al. (author) Genome-wide meta-analysis of observational studies shows common genetic variants associated with macronutrient intake 2013 In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 1938-3207 .- 0002-9165. ; 97:6, s. 1395-1402 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Macronutrient intake varies substantially between individuals, and there is evidence that this variation is partly accounted for by genetic variants. Objective: The objective of the study was to identify common genetic variants that are associated with macronutrient intake. Design: We performed 2-stage genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analysis of macronutrient intake in populations of European descent. Macronutrients were assessed by using food-frequency questionnaires and analyzed as percentages of total energy consumption from total fat, protein, and carbohydrate. From the discovery GWA (n = 38,360), 35 independent loci associated with macronutrient intake at P < 5 x 10(-6) were identified and taken forward to replication in 3 additional cohorts (n = 33,533) from the DietGen Consortium. For one locus, fat mass obesity-associated protein (FTO), cohorts with Illumina MetaboChip genotype data (n 7724) provided additional replication data. Results: A variant in the chromosome 19 locus (rs838145) was associated with higher carbohydrate (beta +/- SE: 0.25 +/- 0.04%; P = 1.68 x 10(-8)) and lower fat (beta = SE: -0.21 +/- 0.04%; P = 1.57 x 10(-9)) consumption. A candidate gene in this region, fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), encodes a fibroblast growth factor involved in glucose and lipid metabolism. The variants in this locus were associated with circulating FGF21 protein concentrations (P < 0.05) but not mRNA concentrations in blood or brain. The body mass index (BMI) increasing allele of the FTO variant (rs1421085) was associated with higher protein intake (beta +/- SE: 0.10 +/- 0.02%; P = 9.96 x 10(-10)), independent of BMI (after adjustment for BMI, beta +/- SE: 0.08 +/- 0.02%; P = 3.15 x 10(-7)). Conclusion: Our results indicate that variants in genes involved in nutrient metabolism and obesity are associated with macronutrient consumption in humans. Trials related to this study were registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005131 (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), NCT00005133 (Cardiovascular Health Study), NCT00005136 (Family Heart Study), NCT00005121 (Framingham Heart Study), NCT00083369 (Genetic and Environmental Determinants of Triglycerides), NCT01331512 (InCHIANTI Study), and NCT00005487 (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).
34.	Vos, Theo, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 2015 In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
35.	Wang, Haidong, et al. (author) Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 2016 In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

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Type of publication: journal article (34); research review (1)

Type of content: peer-reviewed (35)

Author/Editor: Mozaffarian, Dariush (35); Lemaitre, Rozenn N. (23); Siscovick, David S. (19); Micha, Renata (16); Marklund, Matti (15); Hu, Frank B. (14); show more...; Forouhi, Nita G. (13); Tanaka, Toshiko (12); Wu, Jason H Y (12); Lind, Lars (11); Geleijnse, Johanna M ... (11); Orho-Melander, Marju (11); Imamura, Fumiaki (11); Johansson, Ingegerd (10); Sonestedt, Emily (10); Hofman, Albert (10); Uitterlinden, André ... (10); Tsai, Michael Y. (10); Ferrucci, Luigi (10); Franks, Paul W. (9); Renström, Frida (9); Risérus, Ulf, 1967- (9); Franco, Oscar H. (9); Bandinelli, Stefania (9); van Rooij, Frank J. ... (9); Harris, William S. (9); North, Kari E. (8); Smith, Caren E. (8); Rotter, Jerome I. (8); Psaty, Bruce M (8); Raitakari, Olli (8); Chien, Kuo Liong (8); Helmer, Catherine (8); Wojczynski, Mary K (8); Viikari, Jorma (7); Jonas, Jost B. (7); Khang, Young-Ho (7); Lopez, Alan D. (7); Lozano, Rafael (7); Malekzadeh, Reza (7); Naghavi, Mohsen (7); Vos, Theo (7); Laakso, Markku (7); Qi, Lu (7); Manichaikul, Ani (7); Liu, Yongmei (7); Cupples, L. Adrienne (7); Kanoni, Stavroula (7); Uusitupa, Matti (7); Borecki, Ingrid B. (7); show less...

University: Uppsala University (26); Umeå University (14); Lund University (13); Karolinska Institutet (12); Högskolan Dalarna (6); University of Gothenburg (5); show more...; Mid Sweden University (3); Stockholm University (1); Chalmers University of Technology (1); show less...

Language: English (35)

Research subject (UKÄ/SCB): Medical and Health Sciences (34)

Year

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