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- Wulf Hanson, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021
- 2022
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Importance: While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.Objective: To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery.Design: We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.Results: Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8-312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38-7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9-92.4), 60.4% (18.9-89.1), and 35.4% (9.4-75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84-4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10-9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3-21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.Conclusions and relevance: The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.Key Points: Question: What are the extent and nature of the most common long COVID symptoms by country in 2020 and 2021?Findings: Globally, 144.7 million people experienced one or more of three symptom clusters (fatigue; cognitive problems; and ongoing respiratory problems) of long COVID three months after infection, in 2020 and 2021. Most cases arose from milder infections. At 12 months after infection, 15.1% of these cases had not yet recovered.Meaning: The substantial number of people with long COVID are in need of rehabilitative care and support to transition back into the workplace or education when symptoms start to wane.
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- Verguet, Stephane, et al.
(författare)
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Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in South Africa : comprehensive economic evaluation of an integrated child health delivery platform
- 2013
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 6, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Supplementary immunization activity (SIA) campaigns provide children with an additional dose of measles vaccine and deliver other interventions, including vitamin A supplements, deworming medications, and oral polio vaccines.Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the full SIA delivery platform in South Africa (SA).Design: We used an epidemiologic cost model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the 2010 SIA campaign. We used province-level campaign data sourced from the District Health Information System, SA, and from planning records of provincial coordinators of the Expanded Programme on Immunization. The data included the number of children immunized with measles and polio vaccines, the number of children given vitamin A supplements and Albendazole tablets, and costs.Results: The campaign cost $37 million and averted a total of 1,150 deaths (95% uncertainty range: 990-1,360)- This ranged from 380 deaths averted in KwaZulu-Natal to 20 deaths averted in the Northern Cape. Vitamin A supplementation alone averted 820 deaths (95% UR: 670-1,040); measles vaccination alone averted 330 deaths (95% UR: 280-370)- Incremental cost-effectiveness was $27,100 (95% UR: $18, 500-34,400) per death averted nationally, ranging from $11,300 per death averted in the Free State to $91,300 per death averted in the Eastern Cape.Conclusions: Cost-effectiveness of the SIA child health delivery platform varies substantially across SA provinces, and it is substantially more cost-effective when vitamin A supplementation is included in the interventions administered. Cost-effectiveness assessments should consider health system delivery platforms that integrate multiple interventions, and they should be conducted at the sub-national level.
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