1. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(author)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
2. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(author)
-
- 2021
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
3. |
|
|
4. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
6. |
- Lonnroth, K, et al.
(author)
-
Towards tuberculosis elimination: an action framework for low-incidence countries
- 2015
-
In: The European respiratory journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 1399-3003 .- 0903-1936. ; 45:4, s. 928-952
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper describes an action framework for countries with low tuberculosis (TB) incidence (<100 TB cases per million population) that are striving for TB elimination. The framework sets out priority interventions required for these countries to progress first towards “pre-elimination” (<10 cases per million) and eventually the elimination of TB as a public health problem (less than one case per million). TB epidemiology in most low-incidence countries is characterised by a low rate of transmission in the general population, occasional outbreaks, a majority of TB cases generated from progression of latent TB infection (LTBI) rather than local transmission, concentration to certain vulnerable and hard-to-reach risk groups, and challenges posed by cross-border migration. Common health system challenges are that political commitment, funding, clinical expertise and general awareness of TB diminishes as TB incidence falls. The framework presents a tailored response to these challenges, grouped into eight priority action areas: 1) ensure political commitment, funding and stewardship for planning and essential services; 2) address the most vulnerable and hard-to-reach groups; 3) address special needs of migrants and cross-border issues; 4) undertake screening for active TB and LTBI in TB contacts and selected high-risk groups, and provide appropriate treatment; 5) optimise the prevention and care of drug-resistant TB; 6) ensure continued surveillance, programme monitoring and evaluation and case-based data management; 7) invest in research and new tools; and 8) support global TB prevention, care and control. The overall approach needs to be multisectorial, focusing on equitable access to high-quality diagnosis and care, and on addressing the social determinants of TB. Because of increasing globalisation and population mobility, the response needs to have both national and global dimensions.
|
|
7. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
8. |
|
|
9. |
|
|
10. |
|
|
11. |
- Jaen-Luchoro, Daniel, et al.
(author)
-
Knockout of Targeted Plasmid-Borne fl-Lactamase Genes in an Extended-Spectrum-fl-Lactamase-Producing Escherichia coli Strain: Impact on Resistance and Proteomic Profile
- 2023
-
In: Microbiology Spectrum. - : American Society for Microbiology. - 2165-0497. ; 11:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Resistance to beta-lactams is known to be multifactorial, although the underlying mechanisms are not well established. The aim of our study was to develop a system for assessing the phenotypic and proteomic responses of bacteria to antibiotic stress as a result of the loss of selected antimicrobial resistance genes. We applied homologous recombination to knock out plasmid-borne beta-lactamase genes (bla(OXA-1), bla(TEM-1), and bla(CTX-M15)) in Escherichia coli CCUG 73778, generating knockout clone variants lacking the respective deleted beta-lactamases. Quantitative proteomic analyses were performed on the knockout variants and the wild-type strain, using bottom-up liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS), after exposure to different concentrations of cefadroxil. Loss of the bla(CTX-M-15) gene had the greatest impact on the resulting protein expression dynamics, while losses of bla(OXA-1) and bla(TEM-1) affected fewer proteins' expression levels. Proteins involved in antibiotic resistance, cell membrane integrity, stress, and gene expression and unknown function proteins exhibited differential expression. The present study provides a framework for studying protein expression in response to antibiotic exposure and identifying the genomic, proteomic, and phenotypic impacts of resistance gene loss.
|
|
12. |
- Müller, Vilhelm, 1990, et al.
(author)
-
Rapid Tracing of Resistance Plasmids in a Nosocomial Outbreak Using Optical DNA Mapping
- 2016
-
In: Acs Infectious Diseases. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2373-8227. ; 2:5, s. 322-328
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Resistance to life-saving antibiotics increases rapidly worldwide, and multiresistant bacteria have become a global threat to human health. Presently, the most serious threat is the increasing spread of Enterobacteriaceae carrying genes coding for extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) and carbapenemases on highly mobile plasmids. We here demonstrate how optical DNA maps of single plasmids can be used as fingerprints to trace plasmids, for example, during resistance outbreaks. We use the assay to demonstrate a potential transmission route of an ESBL-carrying plasmid between bacterial strains/species and between patients, during a polyclonal outbreak at a neonatal ward at Sahlgrenska University Hospital (Gothenburg, Sweden). Our results demonstrate that optical DNA mapping is an easy and rapid method for detecting the spread of plasmids mediating resistance. With the increasing prevalence of multiresistant bacteria, diagnostic tools that can aid in solving ongoing routes of transmission, in particular in hospital settings, will be of paramount importance.
|
|
13. |
- Müller, Vilhelm, 1990, et al.
(author)
-
Rapid Tracing of Resistance Plasmids in a Nosocomial Outbreak Using Optical DNA Mapping
- 2016
-
In: ACS Infectious Diseases. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 2373-8227. ; 2:5, s. 322-328
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Resistance to life-saving antibiotics increases rapidly worldwide, and multiresistant bacteria have become a global threat to human health. Presently, the most serious threat is the increasing spread of Enterobacteriaceae carrying genes coding for extended spectrum beta-lactamases (ESBL) and carbapenemases on highly mobile plasmids. We here demonstrate how optical DNA maps of single plasmids can be used as fingerprints to trace plasmids, for example, during resistance outbreaks. We use the assay to demonstrate a potential transmission route of an ESBL-carrying plasmid between bacterial strains/species and between patients, during a polyclonal outbreak at a neonatal ward at Sahlgrenska University Hospital (Gothenburg, Sweden). Our results demonstrate that optical DNA mapping is an easy and rapid method for detecting the spread of plasmids mediating resistance. With the increasing prevalence of multiresistant bacteria, diagnostic tools that can aid in solving ongoing routes of transmission, in particular in hospital settings, will be of paramount importance.
|
|
14. |
|
|
15. |
- Schwarz, C., et al.
(author)
-
Organization of Patient Management and Fungal Epidemiology in Cystic Fibrosis
- 2018
-
In: Mycopathologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0301-486X .- 1573-0832. ; 183:1, s. 7-19
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The achievement of a better life for cystic fibrosis (CF) patients is mainly caused by a better management and infection control over the last three decades. Herein, we want to summarize the cornerstones for an effective management of CF patients and to give an overview of the knowledge about the fungal epidemiology in this clinical context in Europe. Data from a retrospective analysis encompassing 66,616 samples from 3235 CF patients followed-up in 9 CF centers from different European countries are shown.
|
|
16. |
- Shelton, Jennifer M. G., et al.
(author)
-
Genetic determinants of anti-malarial acquired immunity in a large multi-centre study
- 2015
-
In: Malaria Journal. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1475-2875. ; 14
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Many studies report associations between human genetic factors and immunity to malaria but few have been reliably replicated. These studies are usually country-specific, use small sample sizes and are not directly comparable due to differences in methodologies. This study brings together samples and data collected from multiple sites across Africa and Asia to use standardized methods to look for consistent genetic effects on anti-malarial antibody levels. Methods: Sera, DNA samples and clinical data were collected from 13,299 individuals from ten sites in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sri Lanka using standardized methods. DNA was extracted and typed for 202 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms with known associations to malaria or antibody production, and antibody levels to four clinical grade malarial antigens [AMA1, MSP1, MSP2, and (NANP) 4] plus total IgE were measured by ELISA techniques. Regression models were used to investigate the associations of clinical and genetic factors with antibody levels. Results: Malaria infection increased levels of antibodies to malaria antigens and, as expected, stable predictors of anti-malarial antibody levels included age, seasonality, location, and ethnicity. Correlations between antibodies to blood-stage antigens AMA1, MSP1 and MSP2 were higher between themselves than with antibodies to the (NANP)(4) epitope of the pre-erythrocytic circumsporozoite protein, while there was little or no correlation with total IgE levels. Individuals with sickle cell trait had significantly lower antibody levels to all blood-stage antigens, and recessive homozygotes for CD36 (rs321198) had significantly lower anti-malarial antibody levels to MSP2. Conclusion: Although the most significant finding with a consistent effect across sites was for sickle cell trait, its effect is likely to be via reducing a microscopically positive parasitaemia rather than directly on antibody levels. However, this study does demonstrate a framework for the feasibility of combining data from sites with heterogeneous malaria transmission levels across Africa and Asia with which to explore genetic effects on anti-malarial immunity.
|
|
17. |
- Skovbjerg, Susann, 1973, et al.
(author)
-
Optimization of the detection of microbes in blood from immunocompromised patients with haematological malignancies.
- 2009
-
In: Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases. - : Elsevier BV. - 1469-0691. ; 15:7, s. 680-3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present study aimed to improve the rate of detection of blood-borne microbes by using PCRs with pan-bacterial and Candida specificity. Seventeen per cent of the blood samples (n=178) collected from 107 febrile patients with haematological malignancies were positive using standard culture (BacT/Alert system). Candida PCR was positive in 12 patients, only one of whom scored culture-positive. Bacterial PCR using fresh blood samples was often negative, but the detection rate increased when the blood was pre-incubated for 2 days. These data indicate that PCR assays might be a complement for the detection of blood-borne opportunists in immunocompromised haematology patients.
|
|