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1.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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2.
  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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4.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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5.
  • Baigent, Colin, et al. (author)
  • The effects of lowering LDL cholesterol with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in patients with chronic kidney disease (Study of Heart and Renal Protection) : a randomised placebo-controlled trial
  • 2011
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 377:9784, s. 2181-2192
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Lowering LDL cholesterol with statin regimens reduces the risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and the need for coronary revascularisation in people without kidney disease, but its effects in people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease are uncertain. The SHARP trial aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the combination of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in such patients. Methods This randomised double-blind trial included 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease (3023 on dialysis and 6247 not) with no known history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Patients were randomly assigned to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily versus matching placebo. The key prespecified outcome was first major atherosclerotic event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, non-haemorrhagic stroke, or any arterial revascularisation procedure). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00125593, and I SRCTN54137607. Findings 4650 patients were assigned to receive simvastatin plus ezetimibe and 4620 to placebo. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe yielded an average LDL cholesterol difference of 0.85 mmol/L (SE 0.02; with about two-thirds compliance) during a median follow-up of 4.9 years and produced a 17% proportional reduction in major atherosclerotic events (526 [11.3%] simvastatin plus ezetimibe vs 619 [13.4%] placebo; rate ratio [RR] 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.94; log-rank p=0.0021). Non-significantly fewer patients allocated to simvastatin plus ezetimibe had a non-fatal myocardial infarction or died from coronary heart disease (213 [4.6%] vs 230 [5.0%]; RR 0.92,95% CI 0.76-1.11; p=0.37) and there were significant reductions in non-haemorrhagic stroke (131 [2.8%] vs 174 [3.8%]; RR 0.75,95% CI 0.60-0.94; p=0.01) and arterial revascularisation procedures (284 [6.1%] vs 352 [7.6%]; RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.68-0.93; p=0.0036). After weighting for subgroup-specific reductions in LDL cholesterol, there was no good evidence that the proportional effects on major atherosclerotic events differed from the summary rate ratio in any subgroup examined, and, in particular, they were similar in patients on dialysis and those who were not. The excess risk of myopathy was only two per 10 000 patients per year of treatment with this combination (9 [0.2%] vs 5 [0.1%]). There was no evidence of excess risks of hepatitis (21 [0.5%] vs 18 [0.4%]), gallstones (106 [2.3%] vs 106 [2.3%]), or cancer (438 [9.4%] vs 439 [9.5%], p=0.89) and there was no significant excess of death from any non-vascular cause (668 [14.4%] vs 612 [13.2%], p=0.13). Interpretation Reduction of LDL cholesterol with simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily safely reduced the incidence of major atherosclerotic events in a wide range of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.
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6.
  • Bell, Katy J. L., et al. (author)
  • Ambulatory blood pressure adds little to Framingham Risk Score for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in older men : secondary analysis of observational study data
  • 2014
  • In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 4:9, s. e006044-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objective: To determine the incremental value of ambulatory blood pressure (BP) in predicting cardiovascular risk when the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) is known. Methods: We included 780 men without cardiovascular disease from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, all aged approximately 70 years at baseline. We first screened ambulatory systolic BP (ASBP) parameters for their incremental value by adding them to a model with 10-year FRS. For the best ASBP parameter we estimated HRs and changes in discrimination, calibration and reclassification. We also estimated the difference in the number of men started on treatment and in the number of men protected against a cardiovascular event. Results: Mean daytime ASBP had the highest incremental value; adding other parameters did not yield further improvements. While ASBP was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease, addition to FRS led to only small increases to the overall model fit, discrimination (a 1% increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), calibration and reclassification. We estimated that for every 10 000 men screened with ASBP, 141 fewer would start a new BP-lowering treatment (95% CI 62 to 220 less treated), but this would result in 7 fewer cardiovascular events prevented over the subsequent 10 years (95% CI 21 fewer events prevented to 7 more events prevented). Conclusions: In addition to a standard cardiovascular risk assessment it is not clear that ambulatory BP measurement provides further incremental value. The clinical role of ambulatory BP requires ongoing careful consideration.
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7.
  • Berner, Logan T., et al. (author)
  • The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset
  • 2024
  • In: Scientific Data. - : Springer Nature. - 2052-4463. ; 11:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m−2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.
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8.
  • Bhat, Saiuj, et al. (author)
  • A Systematic Review of the Sources of Dietary Salt Around the World.
  • 2020
  • In: Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.). - : Elsevier BV. - 2156-5376 .- 2161-8313. ; 11:3, s. 677-686
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Excess salt intake contributes to hypertension and increased cardiovascular disease risk. Efforts to implement effective salt-reduction strategies require accurate data on the sources of salt consumption. We therefore performed a systematic review to identify the sources of dietary salt around the world. We systematically searched peer-reviewed and gray literature databases for studies that quantified discretionary (salt added during cooking or at the table) and nondiscretionary sources of salt and those that provided information about the food groups contributing to dietary salt intake. Exploratory linear regression analysis was also conducted to assess whether the proportion of discretionary salt intake is related to the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of a country. We identified 80 studies conducted in 34 countries between 1975 and 2018. The majority (n = 44, 55%) collected data on dietary salt sources within the past 10 y and were deemed to have a low or moderate risk of bias (n = 75, 94%). Thirty-two (40%) studies were judged to be nationally representative. Populations in Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Guatemala, India, Japan, Mozambique, and Romania received more than half of their daily salt intake from discretionary sources. A significant inverse correlation between discretionary salt intake and a country's per capita GDP was observed (P < 0.0001), such that for every $10,000 increase in per capita GDP, the amount of salt obtained from discretionary sources was lower by 8.7% (95% CI: 5.1%, 12%). Bread products, cereal and grains, meat products, and dairy products were the major contributors to dietary salt intake in most populations. There is marked variation in discretionary salt use around the world that is highly correlated with the level of economic development. Our findings have important implications for the type of salt-reduction strategy likely to be effective in a country.
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9.
  • Bhat, Saiuj, et al. (author)
  • Healthy Food Prescription Programs and their Impact on Dietary Behavior and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
  • 2021
  • In: Advances in nutrition (Bethesda, Md.). - : Oxford University Press. - 2156-5376 .- 2161-8313. ; 12:5, s. 1944-1956
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The enormous burden of diet-related chronic diseases has prompted interest in healthy food prescription programs. Yet, the impact of such programs remains unclear. The aim of this study was to conduct a systematic review of healthy food prescription programs and evaluate their impact on dietary behavior and cardiometabolic parameters by meta-analysis. A systematic search was carried out in Medline, Embase, Scopus, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases since their inception to 3 January, 2020 without language restriction. A systematic search of interventional studies investigating the effect of healthy food prescription on diet quality and/or cardiometabolic risk factors including BMI, systolic (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), or blood lipids was carried out. Thirteen studies were identified for inclusion, most of which were quasi-experimental (pre/post) interventions without a control group (n = 9). Pooled estimates revealed a 22% (95% CI: 12, 32; n = 5 studies, n = 1039 participants; I2 = 97%) increase in fruit and vegetable consumption, corresponding to 0.8 higher daily servings (95% CI: 0.2, 1.4; I2 = 96%). BMI decreased by 0.6 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.2, 1.1; I2 = 6.4%) and HbA1c by 0.8% (95% CI: 0.1, 1.6; I2 = 92%). No significant change was observed in other cardiometabolic parameters. These findings should be interpreted with caution in light of considerable heterogeneity, methodological limitations of the included studies, and moderate to very low certainty of evidence. Our results support the need for well-designed, large, randomized controlled trials in various settings to further establish the efficacy of healthy food prescription programs on diet quality and cardiometabolic health.
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10.
  • Coyle, Daisy, et al. (author)
  • Estimating the potential impact of Australia's reformulation programme on households' sodium purchases.
  • 2021
  • In: BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2516-5542. ; 4:1, s. 49-58
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: On average, Australian adults consume 3500 mg sodium per day, almost twice the recommended maximum level of intake. The Australian government through the Healthy Food Partnership initiative has developed a voluntary reformulation programme with sodium targets for 27 food categories. We estimated the potential impact of this programme on household sodium purchases (mg/day per capita) and examined potential differences by income level. We also modelled and compared the effects of applying the existing UK reformulation programme targets in Australia.Methods: This study used 1 year of grocery purchase data (2018) from a nationally representative consumer panel of Australian households (Nielsen Homescan) that was linked with a packaged food and beverage database (FoodSwitch) that contains product-specific sodium information. Potential reductions in per capita sodium purchases were calculated and differences across income level were assessed by analysis of variance. All analyses were modelled to the Australian population in 2018.Results: A total of 7188 households were included in the analyses. The Healthy Food Partnership targets covered 4307/26 728 (16.1%) unique products, which represented 22.3% of all packaged foods purchased by Australian households in 2018. Under the scenario that food manufacturers complied completely with the targets, sodium purchases will be reduced by 50 mg/day per capita, equivalent to 3.5% of sodium currently purchased from packaged foods. Reductions will be greater in low-income households compared with high-income households (mean difference -7 mg/day, 95% CI -4 to -11 mg/day, p<0.001). If Australia had adopted the UK sodium targets, this would have covered 9927 unique products, resulting in a reduction in per capita sodium purchases by 110 mg/day.Conclusion: The Healthy Food Partnership reformulation programme is estimated to result in a very small reduction to sodium purchases. There are opportunities to improve the programme considerably through greater coverage and more stringent targets.
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11.
  • Coyle, Daisy H, et al. (author)
  • Contribution of major food companies and their products to household dietary sodium purchases in Australia
  • 2020
  • In: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1479-5868. ; 17:1, s. 2-9
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The Australian federal government will soon release voluntary sodium reduction targets for 30 packaged food categories through the Healthy Food Partnership. Previous assessments of voluntary targets show variable industry engagement, and little is known about the extent that major food companies and their products contribute to dietary sodium purchases among Australian households.Methods: The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the relative contribution that food companies and their products made to Australian household sodium purchases in 2018, and to examine differences in sodium purchases by household income level. We used 1 year of grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel of Australian households who reported their grocery purchases (the Nielsen Homescan panel), combined with database that contains product-specific sodium content for packaged foods and beverages (FoodSwitch). The top food companies and food categories were ranked according to their contribution to household sodium purchases. Differences in per capita sodium purchases by income levels were assessed by 1-factor ANOVA. All analyses were modelled to the Australian population in 2018 using sample weights.Results: Sodium data were available from 7188 households who purchased 26,728 unique products and purchased just under 7.5 million food product units. Out of 1329 food companies, the top 10 accounted for 35% of unique products and contributed to 58% of all sodium purchased from packaged foods and beverages. The top three companies were grocery food retailers each contributing 12-15% of sodium purchases from sales of their private label products, particularly processed meat, cheese and bread. Out of the 67 food categories, the top 10 accounted for 73% of sodium purchased, particularly driven by purchases of processed meat (14%), bread (12%) and sauces (11%). Low-income Australian households purchased significantly more sodium from packaged products than high-income households per capita (452 mg/d, 95%CI: 363-540 mg/d, P < 0.001).Conclusions: A small number of food companies and food categories account for most of the dietary sodium purchased by Australian households. Prioritizing government engagement with these groups could deliver a large reduction in population sodium intake.
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12.
  • Coyle, Daisy H, et al. (author)
  • Estimating the potential impact of the Australian government's reformulation targets on household sugar purchases.
  • 2021
  • In: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. - : Springer Nature. - 1479-5868. ; 18:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Countries around the world are putting in place sugar reformulation targets for packaged foods to reduce excess sugar consumption. The Australian government released its voluntary sugar reformulation targets for nine food categories in 2020. We estimated the potential impact of these targets on household sugar purchases and examined differences by income. For comparison, we also modelled the potential impact of the UK sugar reduction targets on per capita sugar purchases as the UK has one of the most comprehensive sugar reduction strategies in the world.METHODS: Grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel (n=7,188) in Australia was linked with a large database (FoodSwitch) with product-specific sugar content information for packaged foods (n=25,261); both datasets were collected in 2018. Potential reductions in per capita sugar purchases were calculated overall and by food category. Differences in sugar reduction across income level were assessed by analysis of variance.RESULTS: In 2018, the total sugar acquired from packaged food and beverage purchases consumed at-home was 56.1 g/day per capita. Australia's voluntary reformulation targets for sugar covered 2,471/25,261 (9.8%) unique products in the FoodSwitch dataset. Under the scenario that all food companies adhered to the voluntary targets, sugar purchases were estimated to be reduced by 0.9 g/day per capita, which represents a 1.5% reduction in sugar purchased from packaged foods. However, if Australia adopted the UK targets, over twice as many products would be covered (n=4,667), and this would result in a more than four times greater reduction in sugar purchases (4.1 g/day per capita). It was also estimated that if all food companies complied with Australia's voluntary sugar targets, reductions to sugar would be slightly greater in low-income households compared with high-income households by 0.3 g/day (95%CI 0.2 - 0.4 g/day, p<0.001).CONCLUSIONS: Sugar-reduction policies have the potential to substantially reduce population sugar consumption and may help to reduce health inequalities related to excess sugar consumption. However, the current reformulation targets in Australia are estimated to achieve only a small reduction to sugar intakes, particularly in comparison to the UK's sugar reduction program.
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13.
  • Coyle, Daisy H, et al. (author)
  • Socio-economic difference in purchases of ultra-processed foods in Australia : an analysis of a nationally representative household grocery purchasing panel.
  • 2022
  • In: International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1479-5868. ; 19:1, s. 148-
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with increased risk of obesity and non-communicable diseases. Little is known about current patterns of ultra-processed foods intake in Australia. The aim of this study was to examine the amount and type of ultra-processed foods purchased by Australian households in 2019 and determine whether purchases differed by socio-economic status (SES). We also assessed whether purchases of ultra-processed foods changed between 2015 and 2019.  METHODS: We used grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel in Australia to assess packaged and unpackaged grocery purchases that were brought home between 2015 to 2019. Ultra-processed foods were identified according to the NOVA system, which classifies foods according to the nature, extent and purpose of industrial food processing. Purchases of ultra-processed foods were calculated per capita, using two outcomes: grams/day and percent of total energy. The top food categories contributing to purchases of ultra-processed foods in 2019 were identified, and differences in ultra-processed food purchases by SES (Index of Relative Social Advantage and Disadvantage) were assessed using survey-weighted linear regression. Changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods between 2015 to 2019 were examined overall and by SES using mixed linear models.RESULTS: In 2019, the mean ± SD total grocery purchases made by Australian households was 881.1 ± 511.9 g/d per capita. Of this, 424.2 ± 319.0 g/d per capita was attributable to purchases of ultra-processed foods, which represented 56.4% of total energy purchased. The largest food categories contributing to total energy purchased included mass-produced, packaged breads (8.2% of total energy purchased), chocolate and sweets (5.7%), biscuits and crackers (5.7%) and ice-cream and edible ices (4.3%). In 2019, purchases of ultra-processed foods were significantly higher for the lowest SES households compared to all other SES quintiles (P < 0.001). There were no major changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods overall or by SES over the five-year period.CONCLUSIONS: Between 2015 and 2019, ultra-processed foods have consistently made up the majority of groceries purchased by Australians, particularly for the lowest SES households. Policies that reduce ultra-processed food consumption may reduce diet-related health inequalities.
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14.
  • Coyle, Daisy H, et al. (author)
  • The Contribution of Major Food Categories and Companies to Household Purchases of Added Sugar in Australia.
  • 2022
  • In: Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. - : Elsevier. - 2212-2672 .- 2212-2680. ; 122:2, s. 345-353.e3
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Australian Government will soon be releasing a series of sugar reformulation targets for packaged foods.OBJECTIVE: To estimate the amount of added sugar purchased from packaged food and beverages and the relative contribution that food categories and food companies made to these purchases in 2018. The secondary objective was to examine differences in purchases of added sugar across income levels.DESIGN: Cross-sectional study.PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: We used 1 year of grocery purchase data from a nationally representative panel of Australian households (the NielsenIQ Homescan panel), combined with a packaged food and beverage database (FoodSwitch).MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Added sugar purchases (grams per day per capita), purchase-weighted added sugar content (grams per 100 g) and total weight of products (with added sugar) purchased (grams per day per capita).STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: Food categories and food companies were ranked according to their contribution to added sugar purchases. Differences in added sugar purchases by income levels were assessed by 1-factor analysis of variance.RESULTS: Added sugar information was available from 7188 households and across 26,291 unique foods and beverages. On average, the amount of added sugar acquired from packaged foods and beverages was (mean ± SE) 35.9 ± 0.01 g/d per capita. Low-income households purchased 11.0 g/d (95% CI: 10.9-11.0 g/d, P < .001) more added sugar from packaged products than high-income households per capita. The top 10 food categories accounted for 82.2% of added sugar purchased, largely due to purchases of chocolate and sweets, soft drinks, and ice cream and edible ices. Out of 994 food companies, the top 10 companies contributed to 62.1% of added sugar purchases.CONCLUSIONS: The Australian Government can strengthen their proposed sugar reduction program by adding further category-specific targets, prioritizing engagement with key food companies and considering a broader range of policies to reduce added sugar intakes across the Australian population.
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15.
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16.
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17.
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18.
  • Garcia, Julianne, et al. (author)
  • Changes in the sodium content of leading Australian fast-food products between 2009 and 2012
  • 2014
  • In: Medical Journal of Australia. - : AMPCo. - 0025-729X .- 1326-5377. ; 200:6, s. 340-344
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To define the changes in sodium levels of Australian fast foods between 2009 and 2012 overall, in major food subcategories and by company.DESIGN: A comparison of mean sodium content was made across 4 years using t tests and mixed models.SETTING: Nutrient content data for fast-food menu items collected from company websites of six large Australian fast-food chains.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean sodium values in mg/100 g and mg/serve.RESULTS: There were between 302 and 381 products identified each year. Overall, the mean sodium content of fast-food products decreased between 2009 and 2012 by 43 mg/100 g (95% CI, - 66 to - 20 mg/100 g), from 514 mg/100 g in 2009 to 471 mg/100 g in 2012. Mean sodium content per serving was not significantly different at 654 mg in 2009 and 605 mg in 2012 (- 49 mg; 95% CI, - 108 to + 10 mg), reflecting wide variation in the serving sizes of items offered each year. There was a small decline in sodium content over the 4 years across most food categories and food companies.CONCLUSIONS: The observed reduction in the sodium content of fast foods during the 4-year study period is encouraging. However, the reductions are small, and fast-food companies should be encouraged to make further and larger reductions since many products still contain high levels of sodium.
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19.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (author)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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20.
  • Huang, Liping, et al. (author)
  • Interim effects of salt substitution on urinary electrolytes and blood pressure in the China Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS).
  • 2020
  • In: American Heart Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-8703 .- 1097-6744. ; 221, s. 136-145
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Salt Substitute and Stroke Study is an ongoing 5-year large-scale cluster randomized trial investigating the effects of potassium-enriched salt substitute compared to usual salt on the risk of stroke. The study involves 600 villages and 20,996 individuals in rural China. Intermediate risk markers were measured in a random subsample of villages every 12 months over 3 years to track progress against key assumptions underlying study design. Measures of 24-hour urinary sodium, 24-hour urinary potassium, blood pressure and participants' use of salt substitute were recorded, with differences between intervention and control groups estimated using generalized linear mixed models. The primary outcome of annual event rate in the two groups combined was determined by dividing confirmed fatal and non-fatal strokes by total follow-up time in the first 2 years. The mean differences (95% CI) were -0.32 g (-0.68 to 0.05) for 24-hour urinary sodium, +0.77 g (+0.60 to +0.93) for 24-hour urinary potassium, -2.65 mmHg (-4.32 to -0.97) for systolic blood pressure and +0.30 mmHg (-0.72 to +1.32) for diastolic blood pressure. Use of salt substitute was reported by 97.5% in the intervention group versus 4.2% in the control group (P<.0001). The overall estimated annual event rate for fatal and non-fatal stroke was 3.2%. The systolic blood pressure difference and the annual stroke rate were both in line with the statistical assumptions underlying study design. The trial should be well placed to address the primary hypothesis at completion of follow-up.
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21.
  • Huang, Liping, et al. (author)
  • The contribution of sodium reduction and potassium increase to the blood pressure lowering observed in the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study
  • 2024
  • In: Journal of Human Hypertension. - : Springer Nature. - 0950-9240 .- 1476-5527. ; 38:4, s. 298-306
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS) demonstrated significant reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP), and the risk of stroke, major cardiovascular events and total mortality with the use of potassium-enriched salt. The contribution of sodium reduction versus potassium increase to these effects is unknown. We identified four different data sources describing the association between sodium reduction, potassium supplementation and change in SBP. We then fitted a series of models to estimate the SBP reductions expected for the differences in sodium and potassium intake in SSaSS, derived from 24-h urine collections. The proportions of the SBP reduction separately attributable to sodium reduction and potassium supplementation were calculated. The observed SBP reduction in SSaSS was -3.3 mmHg with a corresponding mean 15.2 mmol reduction in 24-h sodium excretion and a mean 20.6 mmol increase in 24-h potassium excretion. Assuming 90% of dietary sodium intake and 70% of dietary potassium intake were excreted through urine, the models projected falls in SBP of between -1.67 (95% confidence interval: -4.06 to +0.73) mmHg and -5.33 (95% confidence interval: -8.58 to -2.08) mmHg. The estimated proportional contribution of sodium reduction to the SBP fall ranged between 12 and 39% for the different models fitted. Sensitivity analyses assuming different proportional urinary excretion of dietary sodium and potassium intake showed similar results. In every model, the majority of the SBP lowering effect in SSaSS was estimated to be attributable to the increase in dietary potassium rather than the fall in dietary sodium.
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22.
  • Huang, Liping, et al. (author)
  • The impact of baseline potassium intake on the dose-response relation between sodium reduction and blood pressure change : systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.
  • 2021
  • In: Journal of Human Hypertension. - : Springer Nature. - 0950-9240 .- 1476-5527. ; 35:11, s. 946-957
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sodium and potassium appear to interact with each other in their effects on blood pressure with potassium supplementation having a greater blood pressure lowering-effect when sodium intake is high. Whether the effect of sodium reduction on blood pressure varies according to potassium intake levels is unclear. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the impact of baseline potassium intake on blood pressure response to sodium reduction in randomized trials in adult populations, with sodium and potassium intake estimated from 24-h urine samples. We included 68 studies involving 5708 participants and conducted univariable and multivariable meta-regression. The median intake of baseline potassium was 67.7 mmol (Interquartile range: 54.6-76.4 mmol), and the mean reduction in sodium intake was 128 mmol (95% CI: 107-148). Multivariable meta-regression that included baseline 24-h urinary potassium excretion, age, ethnicity, baseline blood pressure, change in 24-h urinary sodium excretion, as well as the interaction between baseline 24-h urinary potassium excretion and change in 24-h urinary sodium excretion did not identify a significant association of baseline potassium intake levels with the blood pressure reduction achieved with a 50 mmol lowering of sodium intake (p > 0.05 for both systolic and diastolic blood pressure). A higher starting level of blood pressure was consistently associated with a greater blood pressure reduction from reduced sodium consumption. However, the nonsignificant findings may subject to the limitations of the data available. Additional studies with more varied potassium intake levels would allow a more confident exclusion of an interaction.
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23.
  • Jones, Alexandra, et al. (author)
  • Defining Unhealthy: A Systematic Analysis of Alignment between the Australian Dietary Guidelines and the Health Star Rating System
  • 2018
  • In: Nutrients. - : MDPI. - 2072-6643. ; 10:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Australian Dietary Guidelines (ADGs) and Health Star Rating (HSR) front-of-pack labelling system are two national interventions to promote healthier diets. Our aim was to assess the degree of alignment between the two policies. Methods: Nutrition information was extracted for 65,660 packaged foods available in The George Institutes Australian FoodSwitch database. Products were classified core or discretionary based on the ADGs, and a HSR generated irrespective of whether currently displayed on pack. Apparent outliers were identified as those products classified core that received HSR amp;lt;= 2.0; and those classified discretionary that received HSR amp;gt;= 3.5. Nutrient cut-offs were applied to determine whether apparent outliers were high in salt, total sugar or saturated fat, and outlier status thereby attributed to a failure of the ADGs or HSR algorithm. Results: 47,116 products (23,460 core; 23,656 discretionary) were included. Median (Q1, Q3) HSRs were 4.0 (3.0 to 4.5) for core and 2.0 (1.0 to 3.0) for discretionary products. Overall alignment was good: 86.6% of products received a HSR aligned with their ADG classification. Among 6324 products identified as apparent outliers, 5246 (83.0%) were ultimately determined to be ADG failures, largely caused by challenges in defining foods as core or discretionary. In total, 1078 (17.0%) were determined to be true failures of the HSR algorithm. Conclusion: The scope of genuine misalignment between the ADGs and HSR algorithm is very small. We provide evidence-informed recommendations for strengthening both policies to more effectively guide Australians towards healthier choices.
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24.
  • Karlsson, Karin, et al. (author)
  • Sodium content in processed food items in Sweden compared to other countries : a cross-sectional multinational study
  • 2023
  • In: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2296-2565. ; 11
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BackgroundDietary sodium has a dose-response relationship with cardiovascular disease, and sodium intake in Sweden exceeds national and international recommendations. Two thirds of dietary sodium intake comes from processed foods, and adults in Sweden eat more processed foods than any other European country. We hypothesized that sodium content in processed foods is higher in Sweden than in other countries. The aim of this study was to investigate sodium content in processed food items in Sweden, and how it differs from Australia, France, Hong Kong, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States. MethodsData were collected from retailers by trained research staff using standardized methods. Data were categorized into 10 food categories and compared using Kruskal-Wallis test of ranks. Sodium content in the food items was compared in mg sodium per 100 g of product, based on the nutritional content labels on the packages. ResultsCompared to other countries, Sweden had among the highest sodium content in the "dairy" and "convenience foods" categories, but among the lowest in "cereal and grain products," "seafood and seafood products" and "snack foods" categories. Australia had the overall lowest sodium content, and the US the overall highest. The highest sodium content in most analyzed countries was found in the "meat and meat products" category. The highest median sodium content in any category was found among "sauces, dips, spreads and dressings" in Hong Kong. ConclusionThe sodium content differed substantially between countries in all food categories, although contrary to our hypothesis, processed foods overall had lower sodium content in Sweden than in most other included countries. Sodium content in processed food was nonetheless high also in Sweden, and especially so in increasingly consumed food categories, such as "convenience foods".
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25.
  • Karmali, Kunal N., et al. (author)
  • Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure : A meta-analysis of individual participant data
  • 2018
  • In: PLoS Medicine. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:3
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level.Methods and findings: We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP >= 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP >= 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.Conclusions: A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.
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26.
  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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27.
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28.
  • Lappi, Veli-Matti, et al. (author)
  • A Comparison of the Nutritional Qualities of Supermarket's Own and Regular Brands of Bread in Sweden
  • 2020
  • In: Nutrients. - : MDPI. - 2072-6643. ; 12:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Processed food is associated with unhealthy qualities such as higher content of harmful fats, sugars and salt. The aim of our study was to compare the nutritional qualities of supermarket's own brands and regular brands of bread sold in Sweden. Additionally, we compared the nutritional qualities of gluten-free and gluten-containing bread. We collected information from the labels of 332 bread products available in the largest grocery store chains. The Australian Health Star Rating (HSR) system was used to quantify the nutritional quality of each bread product. We compared all supermarket's own brand products to regular brand products, and gluten-free to gluten-containing bread. The mean HSR for the supermarket's own brands was lower than the regular brands (3.6 vs. 3.7; p = 0.046). For the regular brand products, the fibre, sugar and total fat content were greater (p < 0.001, p = 0.002 and p = 0.021, respectively), while less protein (p = 0.009) compared to regular bread products. Gluten-free bread had a lower HSR than gluten-containing bread (mean 3.5 vs. 3.8, respectively; p < 0.001). The regular brand products were slightly healthier than the supermarket's own brands, primarily as a result of a higher fibre content. Gluten-free bread products were slightly unhealthier due to a lower protein content.
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29.
  • Marklund, Matti, et al. (author)
  • Estimated Benefits and Risks of Using a Reduced-Sodium, Potassium-Enriched Salt Substitute in India : A Modeling Study
  • 2022
  • In: Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0194-911X .- 1524-4563. ; 79:10, s. 2188-2198
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Salt substitution (ie, replacement of table and cooking salt with potassium-enriched salt substitutes) is a promising strategy to reduce blood pressure and prevent cardiovascular disease, particularly in countries like India where there is high sodium intake, mainly from discretionary salt, and low potassium intake. Life-threatening hyperkalemia from increased potassium intake is a postulated concern for individuals with chronic kidney disease.Methods: We used comparative risk assessment models to estimate the number of (1) cardiovascular deaths averted due to blood pressure reductions; (2) potential hyperkalemia-related deaths from increased potassium intake in individuals with advanced chronic kidney disease; and (3) net averted deaths from nationwide salt substitution in India. We evaluated a conservative scenario, based on a large, long-term pragmatic trial in rural China; and an optimistic scenario informed by our recent trial in India. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings.Results: In the conservative scenario, a nationwide salt substitution intervention was estimated to result in approximate to 214 000 (95% uncertainty interval, 92 764-353 054) averted deaths from blood pressure reduction in the total population and approximate to 52 000 (22 961-80 211) in 28 million individuals with advanced chronic kidney disease, while approximate to 22 000 (15 221-31 840) hyperkalemia-deaths might be caused by the intervention. The corresponding estimates for the optimistic scenario were approximate to 351 000 (130 470-546 255), approximate to 66 000 (24 925-105 851), and approximate to 9000 (4251-14 599). Net benefits were consistent across sensitivity analyses.Conclusions: Modeling nationwide salt substitution in India consistently estimated substantial net benefits, preventing around 8% to 14% of annual cardiovascular deaths. Even allowing for potential hyperkalemia risks there were net benefits estimated for individuals with chronic kidney disease.
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30.
  • Marklund, Matti, et al. (author)
  • Estimated population wide benefits and risks in China of lowering sodium through potassium enriched salt substitution : modelling study
  • 2020
  • In: The BMJ. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1756-1833. ; 369
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effects of nationwide replacement of discretionary salt (used at table or during cooking) with potassium enriched salt substitute on morbidity and death from cardiovascular disease in China.DESIGN: Modelling study.SETTING: China.POPULATION: Adult population in China, and specifically individuals with chronic kidney disease (about 17 million people).INTERVENTIONS: Comparative risk assessment models were used to estimate the effects of a nationwide intervention to replace discretionary dietary salt with potassium enriched salt substitutes (20-30% potassium chloride). The models incorporated existing data and corresponding uncertainties from randomised trials, the China National Survey of Chronic Kidney Disease, the Global Burden of Disease Study, and the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted deaths from cardiovascular disease, non-fatal events, and disability adjusted life years from a reduction in blood pressure were estimated after implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution. In individuals with chronic kidney disease, additional deaths from cardiovascular disease related to hyperkalaemia from increased intake of potassium were calculated. The net effects on deaths from cardiovascular disease were estimated as the difference and ratio of averted and additional deaths from cardiovascular disease.RESULTS: Nationwide implementation of potassium enriched salt substitution could prevent about 461 000 (95% uncertainty interval 196 339 to 704 438) deaths annually from cardiovascular disease, corresponding to 11.0% (4.7% to 16.8%) of annual deaths from cardiovascular disease in China; 743 000 (305 803 to 1 273 098) non-fatal cardiovascular events annually; and 7.9 (3.3 to 12.9) million disability adjusted life years related to cardiovascular disease annually. The intervention could potentially produce an estimated 11 000 (6422 to 16 562) additional deaths related to hyperkalaemia in individuals with chronic kidney disease. The net effect would be about 450 000 (183 699 to 697 084) fewer deaths annually from cardiovascular disease in the overall population and 21 000 (1928 to 42 926) fewer deaths in individuals with chronic kidney disease. In deterministic sensitivity analyses, with changes to key model inputs and assumptions, net benefits were consistent in the total population and in individuals with chronic kidney disease, with averted deaths outweighing additional deaths.CONCLUSIONS: Nationwide potassium enriched salt substitution in China was estimated to result in a substantial net benefit, preventing around one in nine deaths from cardiovascular disease overall. Taking account of the risks of hyperkalaemia, a substantial net benefit was also estimated for individuals with chronic kidney disease.
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31.
  • Marklund, Matti, et al. (author)
  • Hypertension treatment capacity in India by increased workforce, greater task-sharing, and extended prescription period : a modelling study
  • 2023
  • In: The Lancet Regional Health - Southeast Asia. - : Elsevier. - 2772-3682. ; 10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The worldwide control rate for hypertension is dismal. An inadequate number of physicians to treat patients with hypertension is one key obstacle. Innovative health system approaches such as delegation of basic tasks to non-physician health workers (task-sharing) might alleviate this problem. Massive scale up of population-wide hypertension management is especially important for low-and middle-income countries such as India. Methods Using constrained optimization models, we estimated the hypertension treatment capacity and salary costs of staff involved in hypertension care within the public health system of India and simulated the potential effects of (1) an increased workforce, (2) greater task-sharing among health workers, and (3) extended average prescription periods that reduce treatment visit frequency (e.g., quarterly instead of monthly).Findings Currently, only an estimated 8% (95% uncertainty interval 7%-10%) of -245 million adults with hypertension can be treated by physician-led services in the Indian public health system (assuming the current number of health workers, no greater task-sharing, and monthly visits for prescriptions). Without task-sharing and with continued monthly visits for prescriptions, the least costly workforce expansion to treat 70% of adults with hypertension would require -1.6 (1.0-2.5) million additional staff (all non-physicians), with -INR 200 billion (approximate to USD 2.7 billion) in additional annual salary costs. Implementing task-sharing among health workers (without increasing the overall time on hypertension care) or allowing a 3-month prescription period was estimated to allow the current workforce to treat -25% of patients. Joint implementation of task-sharing and a longer prescription period could treat -70% of patients with hypertension in India.Interpretation The combination of greater task-sharing and extended prescription periods could substantially increase the hypertension treatment capacity in India without any expansion of the current workforce in the public health system. By contrast, workforce expansion alone would require considerable, additional human and financial resources.
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32.
  • Maron, David J., et al. (author)
  • Initial Invasive or Conservative Strategy for Stable Coronary Disease
  • 2020
  • In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 382:15, s. 1395-1407
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, whether clinical outcomes are better in those who receive an invasive intervention plus medical therapy than in those who receive medical therapy alone is uncertain.Methods: We randomly assigned 5179 patients with moderate or severe ischemia to an initial invasive strategy (angiography and revascularization when feasible) and medical therapy or to an initial conservative strategy of medical therapy alone and angiography if medical therapy failed. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. A key secondary outcome was death from cardiovascular causes or myocardial infarction.Results: Over a median of 3.2 years, 318 primary outcome events occurred in the invasive-strategy group and 352 occurred in the conservative-strategy group. At 6 months, the cumulative event rate was 5.3% in the invasive-strategy group and 3.4% in the conservative-strategy group (difference, 1.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8 to 3.0); at 5 years, the cumulative event rate was 16.4% and 18.2%, respectively (difference, -1.8 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.7 to 1.0). Results were similar with respect to the key secondary outcome. The incidence of the primary outcome was sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction; a secondary analysis yielded more procedural myocardial infarctions of uncertain clinical importance. There were 145 deaths in the invasive-strategy group and 144 deaths in the conservative-strategy group (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.32).Conclusions: Among patients with stable coronary disease and moderate or severe ischemia, we did not find evidence that an initial invasive strategy, as compared with an initial conservative strategy, reduced the risk of ischemic cardiovascular events or death from any cause over a median of 3.2 years. The trial findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction that was used. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; ISCHEMIA ClinicalTrials.gov number, .) Patients with stable coronary disease were randomly assigned to an initial invasive strategy with angiography and revascularization if appropriate or to medical therapy alone. At 3.2 years, there was no significant difference between the groups with respect to the estimated rate of ischemic events. The findings were sensitive to the definition of myocardial infarction.
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33.
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34.
  • Mottas, Antoine, et al. (author)
  • Measuring the Healthiness of Ready-to-Eat Child-Targeted Cereals : Evaluation of the FoodSwitch Platform in Sweden
  • 2021
  • In: JMIR mhealth and uhealth. - : JMIR Publications. - 2291-5222. ; 9:7
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Childhood obesity is a major public health issue. The increase in the consumption of foods with poor nutritional value, such as processed foods, contributes to this. Breakfast cereals are often advertised as a healthy way to start the day, but the healthiness of these products varies greatly. Objective: Our main objective was to gather information about the nutritional characteristics of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals in Sweden and to investigate the healthiness of products targeted at children compared to other cereals by use of the FoodSwitch platform. A secondary objective was to evaluate the alignment between the Keyhole symbol and the Health Star Rating. Methods: The FoodSwitch app is a mobile health (mHealth) tool used to present nutrition data and healthier alternative products to consumers. Ready-to-eat breakfast cereals from the largest Swedish grocery retailers were collected using the FoodSwitch platform. Products were defined as targeting children if they presented features addressing children on the package. Results: Overall, information on 261 ready-to-eat cereals was examined. Of this total, 8% (n=21) were targeted at children. Child-targeted cereals were higher in sugar (22.3 g/100 g vs 12.8 g/100 g, P<.001) and lower in fiber (6.2 g/100 g vs 9.8 g/100 g, P<.001) and protein (8.1 g/100 g vs 10.5 g/100 g, P<.001). Total fat (3 g/100 g vs 10.5 g/100 g, P<.001) and saturated fat (0.8 g/100 g vs 2.6 g/100 g, P<.001) were also lower. No difference was found in salt content (P=.61). Fewer child-targeted breakfast cereals displayed an on-pack Keyhole label (n=1, 5% vs n=53, 22%; P=.06), and the mean Health Star Rating value was 3.5 for child-targeted cereals compared to others (mean 3.8, P=.07). A correlation was found between the Keyhole symbol and the Health Star Rating. Conclusions: Ready-to-eat breakfast cereals targeted at children were less healthy in terms of sugar and fiber content compared to products not targeted at children. There is a need to improve the nutritional quality of child-targeted cereals.
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35.
  • Neal, Bruce, et al. (author)
  • Is salt substitution ready for prime time?
  • 2020
  • In: Nature Reviews Cardiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1759-5002 .- 1759-5010. ; 17:6, s. 325-326
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
  •  
36.
  • Roth, Gregory A, et al. (author)
  • Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019 : Update From the GBD 2019 Study
  • 2020
  • In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 76:25, s. 2982-3021
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.
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37.
  • Rådholm, Karin, 1976-, et al. (author)
  • Canagliflozin and Heart Failure in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Results From the CANVAS Program
  • 2018
  • In: Circulation. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 138:5, s. 458-468
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Canagliflozin is a sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor that reduces the risk of cardiovascular events. We report the effects on heart failure (HF) and cardiovascular death overall, in those with and without a baseline history of HF, and in other participant subgroups. Methods: The CANVAS Program (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) enrolled 10142 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk. Participants were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo and followed for a mean of 188 weeks. The primary end point for these analyses was adjudicated cardiovascular death or hospitalized HF. Results: Participants with a history of HF at baseline (14.4%) were more frequently women, white, and hypertensive and had a history of prior cardiovascular disease (all Pamp;lt;0.001). Greater proportions of these patients were using therapies such as blockers of the renin angiotensin aldosterone system, diuretics, and -blockers at baseline (all Pamp;lt;0.001). Overall, cardiovascular death or hospitalized HF was reduced in those treated with canagliflozin compared with placebo (16.3 versus 20.8 per 1000 patient-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67-0.91), as was fatal or hospitalized HF (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.55-0.89) and hospitalized HF alone (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.52-0.87). The benefit on cardiovascular death or hospitalized HF may be greater in patients with a prior history of HF (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.46-0.80) compared with those without HF at baseline (HR, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.72-1.06; P interaction =0.021). The effects of canagliflozin compared with placebo on other cardiovascular outcomes and key safety outcomes were similar in participants with and without HF at baseline (all interaction P values amp;gt;0.130), except for a possibly reduced absolute rate of events attributable to osmotic diuresis among those with a prior history of HF (P=0.03). Conclusions: In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, canagliflozin reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalized HF across a broad range of different patient subgroups. Benefits may be greater in those with a history of HF at baseline. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01032629 and NCT01989754.
  •  
38.
  • Rådholm, Karin, 1976-, et al. (author)
  • Effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes in women versus men
  • 2020
  • In: Diabetes, obesity and metabolism. - : WILEY. - 1462-8902 .- 1463-1326. ; 22:2, s. 263-266
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors prevent cardiovascular complications in type 2 diabetes. We aimed to study whether they have similar effects in women and men by summarizing the effects of SGLT2 inhibitors compared to placebo on vascular and safety outcomes stratified by sex. We included patients with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the EMPA-REG OUTCOME, CANVAS Program, DECLARE TIMI-58 and CREDENCE trials. There were no differences in the risk ratios between men and women, SGLT2 versus control (placebo), for vascular efficacy outcomes or death (all P for interaction amp;gt;=.12), with clear protection shown against major adverse cardiovascular events, heart failure, vascular death and total mortality. SGLT2 inhibitor treatment was also associated with similar relative risks in women and men for the safety outcomes of amputation, fracture, genital infection and urinary tract infection (all P for interaction amp;gt;=.17). SGLT2 inhibition provided similar protection against vascular risks and death, and similar risks of serious adverse events, for women and men.
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39.
  • Rådholm, Karin, 1976-, et al. (author)
  • Effects of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors on cardiovascular disease, death and safety outcomes in type 2 diabetes - A systematic review
  • 2018
  • In: Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice. - : ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD. - 0168-8227 .- 1872-8227. ; 140, s. 118-128
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Aim: Sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors appear to protect against increased risks of cardiovascular and kidney disease in patients with type 2 diabetes but also cause some harms. Whether effects are comparable across drug class or specific to individual compounds is unclear. This meta-analysis assessed the class and individual compound effects of SGLT2 inhibition versus control on cardiovascular events, death, kidney disease and safety outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and regulatory databases were systematically searched for data from randomized clinical trials that included reporting of cardiovascular events, deaths or safety outcomes. We used fixed effects models and inverse variance weighting to calculate relative risks with the 95% confidence intervals. Results: The analyses included data from 82 trials, four overviews and six regulatory reports and there were 1,968 major cardiovascular events identified for analysis. Patients randomly assigned to SGLT2 had lower risks of major cardiovascular events (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93), heart failure (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55-0.80), all-cause death (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.88) and serious decline in kidney function (RR 0.59, 0.49-0.71). Significant adverse effects were observed for genital infections (RR 3.06, 95% CI 2.73-4.43), volume depletion events (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.07-1.43) and amputation (RR 1.44 95% CI 1.13-1.83). There was a high likelihood of differences in the associations of the individual compounds with cardiovascular death, hypoglycaemia and amputation (all I-2 amp;gt; 80%) and a moderate likelihood of differences in the associations with non-fatal stroke, all-cause death, urinary tract infection and fracture (all I-2 amp;gt; 30%). Conclusion: There are strong overall associations of SGLT2 inhibition with protection against major cardiovascular events, heart failure, serious decline in kidney function and all-cause death. SGLT2 inhibitors were also associated with infections, volume depletion effects and amputation. Some associations appear to differ between compounds. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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40.
  • Salam, Abdul, et al. (author)
  • Effects of blood pressure lowering on cardiovascular events, in the context of regression to the mean : a systematic review of randomized trials
  • 2019
  • In: Journal of Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0263-6352 .- 1473-5598. ; 37:1, s. 16-23
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objective: To assess the clinical relevance of regression to the mean for clinical trials and clinical practice. Methods: MEDLINE was searched until February 2018 for randomized trials of BP lowering with over 1000 patient-years follow-up per group. We estimated baseline mean BP, follow-up mean (usual) BP amongst patients grouped by 10 mmHg strata of baseline BP, and assessed effects of BP lowering on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke according to these BP levels. Results: Eighty-six trials (349 488 participants), with mean follow-up of 3.7 years, were included. Most mean BP change was because of regression to the mean rather than treatment. At high baseline BP levels, even after rigorous hypertension diagnosis, downwards regression to the mean caused much of the fall in BP. At low baseline BP levels, upwards regression to the mean increased BP levels, even in treatment groups. Overall, a BP reduction of 6/3 mmHg lowered CHD by 14% (95% CI 11-17%) and stroke by 18% (15-22%), and these treatment effects occurred at follow-up BP levels much closer to the mean than baseline BP levels. In particular, more evidence was available in the SBP 130-139 mmHg range than any other range. Benefits were apparent in numerous high-risk patient groups with baseline mean SBP less than 140 mmHg. Conclusion: Clinical practice should focus less on pretreatment BP levels, which rarely predict future untreated BP levels or rule out capacity to benefit from BP lowering in high cardiovascular risk patients. Instead, focus should be on prompt, empirical treatment to maintain lower BP for those with high BP and/or high risk.
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41.
  • Sampson, Joshua N., et al. (author)
  • Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
  • 2015
  • In: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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42.
  • Shahid, Maria, et al. (author)
  • The effect of mycoprotein intake on biomarkers of human health : a systematic review and meta-analysis
  • 2023
  • In: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Oxford University Press. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 118:1, s. 141-150
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Mycoprotein is a fungal source of protein that is increasingly consumed as an ingredient in meat analogs.Objectives: This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the effects of mycoprotein intake on selected biomarkers of human health.Methods: This study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022308980). We searched the PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify randomized control trials in any language until 16 August, 2022. Trials were included if they administered a mycoprotein intervention against a nonmycoprotein control arm and if reported outcomes included blood lipids, blood glucose, insulin, blood pressure, or body weight. Eligible trials were assessed for risk of bias using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials. An inverse-variance-weighted, random-effects meta-analysis model was used to assess the effects of intake across each biomarker.Results: Nine trials that included 178 participants with a mean follow-up of 13 d were included, with 4 reporting on blood lipids and 5 reporting on postprandial blood glucose or insulin. The overall reduction of total cholesterol was -0.55 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.85 to -0.26; P < 0.001) in the mycoprotein group compared to control, but no clear effects on HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, or TGs were found (all P > 0.05). There were no reductions in postprandial blood glucose concentrations at 30, 60, 90 or 120 min. Postprandial blood insulin concentration was reduced by -76.51 pmol/L (95% CI: -150.75 to -2.28; P = 0.043) at 30 min, with no detectable effects at 60, 90, or 120 min.Conclusions: Mycoprotein intake may have important effects on blood lipids, but the evidence base is limited by the small sample sizes and short intervention periods of the contributing trials. The protocol for this systematic review has been registered in PROSPERO as CRD42022308980.
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43.
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44.
  • Sundström, Johan, et al. (author)
  • Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk : a meta-analysis of individual patient data
  • 2014
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9943, s. 591-598
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BackgroundWe aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. MethodsThis meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%).Findings11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67 475 individuals, of whom 51 917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4.0 years (IQR 3.4-4.4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6 0% (SD 2.0), 12.1% (1.5), 17.7% (1.7), and 26.8% (5.4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0.30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0.04 for trend). Interpretation Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular disease risk equations to inform blood pressure-lowering treatment decisions.
  •  
45.
  • Sundström, Johan, et al. (author)
  • Effects of Blood Pressure Reduction in Mild Hypertension : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
  • 2015
  • In: Annals of Internal Medicine. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 162:3, s. 184-191
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Effects of blood pressure reduction in persons with grade 1 hypertension are unclear. Purpose: To investigate whether pharmacologic blood pressure reduction prevents cardiovascular events and deaths in persons with grade 1 hypertension. Data Sources: Trials included in the BPLTTC (Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration) and trials identified from a previous review and electronic database searches. Study Selection: Patients without cardiovascular disease with blood pressures in the grade 1 hypertension range (140 to 159/90 to 99 mm Hg) who were randomly assigned to an active (antihypertensive drug or more intensive regimen) or control (placebo or less intensive regimen) blood pressure-lowering regimen. Data Extraction: Individual-patient data from BPLTTC trials and aggregate data from other trials were extracted. Risk of bias was assessed for all trials. Data Synthesis: Individual-patient data involved 10 comparisons from trials where most patients had diabetes, and aggregate data involved 3 comparisons from trials of patients without diabetes. The average blood pressure reduction was about 3.6/2.4 mm Hg. Over 5 years, odds ratios were 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.01) for total cardiovascular events, 0.72 (CI, 0.55 to 0.94) for strokes, 0.91 (CI, 0.74 to 1.12) for coronary events, 0.80 (CI, 0.57 to 1.12) for heart failure, 0.75 (CI, 0.57 to 0.98) for cardiovascular deaths, and 0.78 (CI, 0.67 to 0.92) for total deaths. Results were similar in secondary analyses. Withdrawal from treatment due to adverse effects was more common in the active groups. Limitation: Blood pressure reductions and numbers of events were small. Conclusion: Blood pressure-lowering therapy is likely to prevent stroke and death in patients with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension.
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46.
  • Sundström, Johan, Professor, 1971-, et al. (author)
  • Heterogeneity in Blood Pressure Response to 4 Antihypertensive Drugs : A Randomized Clinical Trial
  • 2023
  • In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 329:14, s. 1160-1160
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Importance  Hypertension is the leading risk factor for premature death worldwide. Multiple blood pressure–lowering therapies are available but the potential for maximizing benefit by personalized targeting of drug classes is unknown.Objective  To investigate and quantify the potential for targeting specific drugs to specific individuals to maximize blood pressure effects.Design, Setting, and Participants  A randomized, double-blind, repeated crossover trial in men and women with grade 1 hypertension at low risk for cardiovascular events at an outpatient research clinic in Sweden. Mixed-effects models were used to assess the extent to which individuals responded better to one treatment than another and to estimate the additional blood pressure lowering achievable by personalized treatment.Interventions  Each participant was scheduled for treatment in random order with 4 different classes of blood pressure–lowering drugs (lisinopril [angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor], candesartan [angiotensin-receptor blocker], hydrochlorothiazide [thiazide], and amlodipine [calcium channel blocker]), with repeated treatments for 2 classes.Main Outcomes and Measures  Ambulatory daytime systolic blood pressure, measured at the end of each treatment period.Results  There were 1468 completed treatment periods (median length, 56 days) recorded in 270 of the 280 randomized participants (54% men; mean age, 64 years). The blood pressure response to different treatments varied considerably between individuals (P < .001), specifically for the choices of lisinopril vs hydrochlorothiazide, lisinopril vs amlodipine, candesartan vs hydrochlorothiazide, and candesartan vs amlodipine. Large differences were excluded for the choices of lisinopril vs candesartan and hydrochlorothiazide vs amlodipine. On average, personalized treatment had the potential to provide an additional 4.4 mm Hg–lower systolic blood pressure.Conclusions and Relevance  These data reveal substantial heterogeneity in blood pressure response to drug therapy for hypertension, findings that may have implications for personalized therapy.
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47.
  •  
48.
  • Trieu, Kathy, et al. (author)
  • Estimated Dietary and Health Impact of the World Health Organization's Global Sodium Benchmarks on Packaged Foods in Australia : a Modeling Study.
  • 2023
  • In: Hypertension. - 0194-911X .- 1524-4563.
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) set sodium benchmarks for packaged foods to guide countries in setting feasible and effective sodium reformulation programs. We modeled the dietary and health impact of full compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks in Australia and compared it to the potential impact of Australia's 2020 sodium reformulation targets.METHODS: We used nationally representative data on food and sodium intake, sodium levels in packaged foods, and food sales volume to estimate sodium intake pre- and post-implementation of the WHO and Australia's sodium benchmarks for 24 age-sex groups. Using comparative risk assessment models, we then estimated the potential deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years averted from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer based on the reductions in sodium intake.RESULTS: Compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks for packaged foods in Australia could lower mean adult sodium intake by 404 mg/day, corresponding to a 12% reduction. This could prevent about 1770 deaths/year (95% uncertainty interval 1168-2587), corresponding to 3% of all cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer deaths in Australia, and prevent some 6900 (4603-9513) new cases, and 25 700 (17 655-35 796) disability-adjusted life years/year. Compared with Australian targets, the WHO benchmarks will avert around 3 and a half times more deaths each year (1770 versus 510).CONCLUSIONS: Substantially greater health impact could be achieved if the Australian government strengthened its current sodium reformulation program by adopting WHO's more stringent and comprehensive sodium benchmarks.
  •  
49.
  • Trieu, Kathy, et al. (author)
  • The estimated health impact of sodium reduction through food reformulation in Australia : A modeling study.
  • 2021
  • In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 18:10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Australian Government recently established sodium targets for packaged foods to encourage voluntary reformulation to reduce population sodium consumption and related diseases. We modeled the health impact of Australia's sodium reformulation targets and additional likely health gains if more ambitious, yet feasible sodium targets had been adopted instead.METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using comparative risk assessment models, we estimated the averted deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD) and stomach cancer after implementation of (a) Australia's sodium targets (overall and by individual companies); (b) United Kingdom's targets (that covers more product categories); and (c) an optimistic scenario (sales-weighted 25th percentile sodium content for each food category included in the UK program). We used nationally representative data to estimate pre- and post-intervention sodium intake, and other key data sources from the Global Burden of Disease study. Full compliance with the Australian government's sodium targets could prevent approximately 510 deaths/year (95% UI, 335 to 757), corresponding to about 1% of CVD, CKD, and stomach cancer deaths, and prevent some 1,920 (1,274 to 2,600) new cases and 7,240 (5,138 to 10,008) DALYs/year attributable to these diseases. Over half (59%) of deaths prevented is attributed to reformulation by 5 market-dominant companies. Compliance with the UK and optimistic scenario could avert approximately an additional 660 (207 to 1,227) and 1,070 (511 to 1,856) deaths/year, respectively, compared to Australia's targets. The main limitation of this study (like other modeling studies) is that it does not prove that sodium reformulation programs will prevent deaths and disease events; rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and the corresponding uncertainty of the potential effect of the different programs to guide the design of policies.CONCLUSIONS: There is significant potential to strengthen Australia's sodium reformulation targets to improve its health impact. Promoting compliance by market-dominant food companies will be critical to achieving the potential health gains.
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50.
  • Tye, Sok Cin, et al. (author)
  • Initiation of the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin to prevent kidney and heart failure outcomes guided by HbA1c, albuminuria, and predicted risk of kidney failure
  • 2022
  • In: Cardiovascular Diabetology. - : Springer Nature. - 1475-2840. ; 21:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney and heart failure events independent of glycemic effects. We assessed whether initiation of the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin guided by multivariable predicted risk based on clinical characteristics and novel biomarkers is more efficient to prevent clinical outcomes compared to a strategy guided by HbA1c or urinary-albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) alone. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis of the CANVAS trial including 3713 patients with available biomarker measurements. We compared the number of composite kidney (defined as a sustained 40% decline in eGFR, chronic dialysis, kidney transplantation, or kidney death) and composite heart failure outcomes (defined as heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death) prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years when canagliflozin was initiated in patients according to HbA1c >= 7.5%, UACR, or multivariable risk models consisting of: (1) clinical characteristics, or (2) clinical characteristics and novel biomarkers. Differences in the rates of events prevented between strategies were tested by Chi(2)-statistic. Results After a median follow-up of 6.1 years, 144 kidney events were recorded. The final clinical model included age, previous history of CV disease, systolic blood pressure, UACR, hemoglobin, body weight, albumin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and randomized treatment assignment. The combined biomarkers model included all clinical characteristics, tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, kidney injury molecule-1, matrix metallopeptidase-7 and interleukin-6. Treating all patients with HbA1c >= 7.5% (n = 2809) would prevent 33.0 (95% CI 18.8 to 43.3 ) kidney events at a rate of 9.6 (95% CI 5.5 to 12.6) events prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years. The corresponding rates were 5.8 (95% CI 3.4 to 7.9), 16.6 (95% CI 9.5 to 22.0) (P < 0.001 versus HbA1c or UACR approach), and 17.5 (95% CI 10.0 to 23.0) (P < 0.001 versus HbA1c or UACR approach; P = 0.54 versus clinical model). Findings were similar for the heart failure outcome. Conclusion Initiation of canagliflozin based on an estimated risk-based approach prevented more kidney and heart failure outcomes compared to a strategy based on HbA1c or UACR alone. There was no apparent gain from adding novel biomarkers to the clinical risk model. These findings support the use of risk-based assessment using clinical markers to guide initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes.
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