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1.
  • Niemi, MEK, et al. (author)
  • 2021
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  • Kanai, M, et al. (author)
  • 2023
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  • Thomas, HS, et al. (author)
  • 2019
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7.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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8.
  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (author)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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9.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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  • Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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15.
  • Murray, Christopher J. L., et al. (author)
  • Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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16.
  • Feigin, Valery L., et al. (author)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2019
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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17.
  • Surendran, Praveen, et al. (author)
  • Discovery of rare variants associated with blood pressure regulation through meta-analysis of 1.3 million individuals
  • 2020
  • In: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 52:12, s. 1314-1332
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Genetic studies of blood pressure (BP) to date have mainly analyzed common variants (minor allele frequency > 0.05). In a meta-analysis of up to similar to 1.3 million participants, we discovered 106 new BP-associated genomic regions and 87 rare (minor allele frequency <= 0.01) variant BP associations (P < 5 x 10(-8)), of which 32 were in new BP-associated loci and 55 were independent BP-associated single-nucleotide variants within known BP-associated regions. Average effects of rare variants (44% coding) were similar to 8 times larger than common variant effects and indicate potential candidate causal genes at new and known loci (for example, GATA5 and PLCB3). BP-associated variants (including rare and common) were enriched in regions of active chromatin in fetal tissues, potentially linking fetal development with BP regulation in later life. Multivariable Mendelian randomization suggested possible inverse effects of elevated systolic and diastolic BP on large artery stroke. Our study demonstrates the utility of rare-variant analyses for identifying candidate genes and the results highlight potential therapeutic targets.
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18.
  • Ntalla, Ioanna, et al. (author)
  • Multi-ancestry GWAS of the electrocardiographic PR interval identifies 202 loci underlying cardiac conduction
  • 2020
  • In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The electrocardiographic PR interval reflects atrioventricular conduction, and is associated with conduction abnormalities, pacemaker implantation, atrial fibrillation (AF), and cardiovascular mortality. Here we report a multi-ancestry (N=293,051) genome-wide association meta-analysis for the PR interval, discovering 202 loci of which 141 have not previously been reported. Variants at identified loci increase the percentage of heritability explained, from 33.5% to 62.6%. We observe enrichment for cardiac muscle developmental/contractile and cytoskeletal genes, highlighting key regulation processes for atrioventricular conduction. Additionally, 8 loci not previously reported harbor genes underlying inherited arrhythmic syndromes and/or cardiomyopathies suggesting a role for these genes in cardiovascular pathology in the general population. We show that polygenic predisposition to PR interval duration is an endophenotype for cardiovascular disease, including distal conduction disease, AF, and atrioventricular pre-excitation. These findings advance our understanding of the polygenic basis of cardiac conduction, and the genetic relationship between PR interval duration and cardiovascular disease. On the electrocardiogram, the PR interval reflects conduction from the atria to ventricles and also serves as risk indicator of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Here, the authors perform genome-wide meta-analyses for PR interval in multiple ancestries and identify 141 previously unreported genetic loci.
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19.
  • Johnson, Toby, et al. (author)
  • Blood Pressure Loci Identified with a Gene-Centric Array.
  • 2011
  • In: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1537-6605 .- 0002-9297. ; 89:6, s. 688-700
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56× 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56× 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.
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20.
  • Kraja, Aldi T., et al. (author)
  • New Blood Pressure-Associated Loci Identified in Meta-Analyses of 475000 Individuals
  • 2017
  • In: Circulation. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 1942-325X .- 1942-3268. ; 10:5
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background - Genome-wide association studies have recently identified >400 loci that harbor DNA sequence variants that influence blood pressure (BP). Our earlier studies identified and validated 56 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with BP from meta-analyses of exome chip genotype data. An additional 100 variants yielded suggestive evidence of association.Methods and Results - Here, we augment the sample with 140886 European individuals from the UK Biobank, in whom 77 of the 100 suggestive SNVs were available for association analysis with systolic BP or diastolic BP or pulse pressure. We performed 2 meta-analyses, one in individuals of European, South Asian, African, and Hispanic descent (pan-ancestry, approximate to 475000), and the other in the subset of individuals of European descent (approximate to 423000). Twenty-one SNVs were genome-wide significant (P<5x10(-8) ) for BP, of which 4 are new BP loci: rs9678851 (missense, SLC4A1AP), rs7437940 (AFAP1), rs13303 (missense, STAB1), and rs1055144 (7p15.2). In addition, we identified a potentially independent novel BP-associated SNV, rs3416322 (missense, SYNPO2L) at a known locus, uncorrelated with the previously reported SNVs. Two SNVs are associated with expression levels of nearby genes, and SNVs at 3 loci are associated with other traits. One SNV with a minor allele frequency <0.01, (rs3025380 at DBH) was genome-wide significant.Conclusions - We report 4 novel loci associated with BP regulation, and 1 independent variant at an established BP locus. This analysis highlights several candidate genes with variation that alter protein function or gene expression for potential follow-up.
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21.
  • Mansoor, Rashid, et al. (author)
  • Haematological consequences of acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria : a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network pooled analysis of individual patient data
  • 2022
  • In: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Nature. - 1741-7015. ; 20:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BackgroundPlasmodium falciparum malaria is associated with anaemia-related morbidity, attributable to host, parasite and drug factors. We quantified the haematological response following treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria to identify the factors associated with malarial anaemia.MethodsIndividual patient data from eligible antimalarial efficacy studies of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, available through the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository prior to August 2015, were pooled using standardised methodology. The haematological response over time was quantified using a multivariable linear mixed effects model with nonlinear terms for time, and the model was then used to estimate the mean haemoglobin at day of nadir and day 7. Multivariable logistic regression quantified risk factors for moderately severe anaemia (haemoglobin < 7 g/dL) at day 0, day 3 and day 7 as well as a fractional fall >= 25% at day 3 and day 7.ResultsA total of 70,226 patients, recruited into 200 studies between 1991 and 2013, were included in the analysis: 50,859 (72.4%) enrolled in Africa, 18,451 (26.3%) in Asia and 916 (1.3%) in South America. The median haemoglobin concentration at presentation was 9.9 g/dL (range 5.0-19.7 g/dL) in Africa, 11.6 g/dL (range 5.0-20.0 g/dL) in Asia and 12.3 g/dL (range 6.9-17.9 g/dL) in South America. Moderately severe anaemia (Hb < 7g/dl) was present in 8.4% (4284/50,859) of patients from Africa, 3.3% (606/18,451) from Asia and 0.1% (1/916) from South America. The nadir haemoglobin occurred on day 2 post treatment with a mean fall from baseline of 0.57 g/dL in Africa and 1.13 g/dL in Asia. Independent risk factors for moderately severe anaemia on day 7, in both Africa and Asia, included moderately severe anaemia at baseline (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 16.10 and AOR = 23.00, respectively), young age (age < 1 compared to >= 12 years AOR = 12.81 and AOR = 6.79, respectively), high parasitaemia (AOR = 1.78 and AOR = 1.58, respectively) and delayed parasite clearance (AOR = 2.44 and AOR = 2.59, respectively). In Asia, patients treated with an artemisinin-based regimen were at significantly greater risk of moderately severe anaemia on day 7 compared to those treated with a non-artemisinin-based regimen (AOR = 2.06 [95%CI 1.39-3.05], p < 0.001).ConclusionsIn patients with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria, the nadir haemoglobin occurs 2 days after starting treatment. Although artemisinin-based treatments increase the rate of parasite clearance, in Asia they are associated with a greater risk of anaemia during recovery.
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22.
  • Stitziel, Nathan O., et al. (author)
  • Coding Variation in ANGPTL4, LPL, and SVEP1 and the Risk of Coronary Disease
  • 2016
  • In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 374:12, s. 1134-1144
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND The discovery of low-frequency coding variants affecting the risk of coronary artery disease has facilitated the identification of therapeutic targets. METHODS Through DNA genotyping, we tested 54,003 coding-sequence variants covering 13,715 human genes in up to 72,868 patients with coronary artery disease and 120,770 controls who did not have coronary artery disease. Through DNA sequencing, we studied the effects of loss-of-function mutations in selected genes. RESULTS We confirmed previously observed significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes LPA and PCSK9. We also found significant associations between coronary artery disease and low-frequency missense variants in the genes SVEP1 (p.D2702G; minor-allele frequency, 3.60%; odds ratio for disease, 1.14; P = 4.2x10(-10)) and ANGPTL4 (p.E40K; minor-allele frequency, 2.01%; odds ratio, 0.86; P = 4.0x10(-8)), which encodes angiopoietin-like 4. Through sequencing of ANGPTL4, we identified 9 carriers of loss-of-function mutations among 6924 patients with myocardial infarction, as compared with 19 carriers among 6834 controls (odds ratio, 0.47; P = 0.04); carriers of ANGPTL4 loss-of-function alleles had triglyceride levels that were 35% lower than the levels among persons who did not carry a loss-of-function allele (P = 0.003). ANGPTL4 inhibits lipoprotein lipase; we therefore searched for mutations in LPL and identified a loss-of-function variant that was associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease (p.D36N; minor-allele frequency, 1.9%; odds ratio, 1.13; P = 2.0x10(-4)) and a gain-of-function variant that was associated with protection from coronary artery disease (p.S447*; minor-allele frequency, 9.9%; odds ratio, 0.94; P = 2.5x10(-7)). CONCLUSIONS We found that carriers of loss-of-function mutations in ANGPTL4 had triglyceride levels that were lower than those among noncarriers; these mutations were also associated with protection from coronary artery disease.
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23.
  • Watts, Eleanor L., et al. (author)
  • Observational and genetic associations between cardiorespiratory fitness and cancer : a UK Biobank and international consortia study
  • 2024
  • In: British Journal of Cancer. - : Springer Nature. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 130, s. 114-124
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: The association of fitness with cancer risk is not clear.Methods: We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for risk of lung, colorectal, endometrial, breast, and prostate cancer in a subset of UK Biobank participants who completed a submaximal fitness test in 2009-12 (N = 72,572). We also investigated relationships using two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR), odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method.Results: After a median of 11 years of follow-up, 4290 cancers of interest were diagnosed. A 3.5 ml O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 total-body mass increase in fitness (equivalent to 1 metabolic equivalent of task (MET), approximately 0.5 standard deviation (SD)) was associated with lower risks of endometrial (HR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.73–0.89), colorectal (0.94, 0.90–0.99), and breast cancer (0.96, 0.92–0.99). In MR analyses, a 0.5 SD increase in genetically predicted O2⋅min−1⋅kg−1 fat-free mass was associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (OR = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.86–0.98). After adjusting for adiposity, both the observational and genetic associations were attenuated.Discussion: Higher fitness levels may reduce risks of endometrial, colorectal, and breast cancer, though relationships with adiposity are complex and may mediate these relationships. Increasing fitness, including via changes in body composition, may be an effective strategy for cancer prevention.
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24.
  • Young, William J., et al. (author)
  • Genetic analyses of the electrocardiographic QT interval and its components identify additional loci and pathways
  • 2022
  • In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The QT interval is a heritable electrocardiographic measure associated with arrhythmia risk when prolonged. Here, the authors used a series of genetic analyses to identify genetic loci, pathways, therapeutic targets, and relationships with cardiovascular disease. The QT interval is an electrocardiographic measure representing the sum of ventricular depolarization and repolarization, estimated by QRS duration and JT interval, respectively. QT interval abnormalities are associated with potentially fatal ventricular arrhythmia. Using genome-wide multi-ancestry analyses (>250,000 individuals) we identify 177, 156 and 121 independent loci for QT, JT and QRS, respectively, including a male-specific X-chromosome locus. Using gene-based rare-variant methods, we identify associations with Mendelian disease genes. Enrichments are observed in established pathways for QT and JT, and previously unreported genes indicated in insulin-receptor signalling and cardiac energy metabolism. In contrast for QRS, connective tissue components and processes for cell growth and extracellular matrix interactions are significantly enriched. We demonstrate polygenic risk score associations with atrial fibrillation, conduction disease and sudden cardiac death. Prioritization of druggable genes highlight potential therapeutic targets for arrhythmia. Together, these results substantially advance our understanding of the genetic architecture of ventricular depolarization and repolarization.
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25.
  • Lahrouchi, Najim, et al. (author)
  • Transethnic Genome-Wide Association Study Provides Insights in the Genetic Architecture and Heritability of Long QT Syndrome
  • 2020
  • In: Circulation. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 142:4, s. 324-338
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a rare genetic disorder and a major preventable cause of sudden cardiac death in the young. A causal rare genetic variant with large effect size is identified in up to 80% of probands (genotype positive) and cascade family screening shows incomplete penetrance of genetic variants. Furthermore, a proportion of cases meeting diagnostic criteria for LQTS remain genetically elusive despite genetic testing of established genes (genotype negative). These observations raise the possibility that common genetic variants with small effect size contribute to the clinical picture of LQTS. This study aimed to characterize and quantify the contribution of common genetic variation to LQTS disease susceptibility. Methods: We conducted genome-wide association studies followed by transethnic meta-analysis in 1656 unrelated patients with LQTS of European or Japanese ancestry and 9890 controls to identify susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms. We estimated the common variant heritability of LQTS and tested the genetic correlation between LQTS susceptibility and other cardiac traits. Furthermore, we tested the aggregate effect of the 68 single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with the QT-interval in the general population using a polygenic risk score. Results: Genome-wide association analysis identified 3 loci associated with LQTS at genome-wide statistical significance (P<5x10(-8)) nearNOS1AP,KCNQ1, andKLF12, and 1 missense variant inKCNE1(p.Asp85Asn) at the suggestive threshold (P<10(-6)). Heritability analyses showed that approximate to 15% of variance in overall LQTS susceptibility was attributable to common genetic variation (h2SNP0.148; standard error 0.019). LQTS susceptibility showed a strong genome-wide genetic correlation with the QT-interval in the general population (r(g)=0.40;P=3.2x10(-3)). The polygenic risk score comprising common variants previously associated with the QT-interval in the general population was greater in LQTS cases compared with controls (P<10-13), and it is notable that, among patients with LQTS, this polygenic risk score was greater in patients who were genotype negative compared with those who were genotype positive (P<0.005). Conclusions: This work establishes an important role for common genetic variation in susceptibility to LQTS. We demonstrate overlap between genetic control of the QT-interval in the general population and genetic factors contributing to LQTS susceptibility. Using polygenic risk score analyses aggregating common genetic variants that modulate the QT-interval in the general population, we provide evidence for a polygenic architecture in genotype negative LQTS.
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26.
  • Paluch, Amanda E., et al. (author)
  • Daily steps and all-cause mortality : a meta-analysis of 15 international cohorts
  • 2022
  • In: The Lancet Public Health. - : Elsevier. - 2468-2667. ; 7:3, s. e219-e228
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Although 10 000 steps per day is widely promoted to have health benefits, there is little evidence to support this recommendation. We aimed to determine the association between number of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality.METHODS: In this meta-analysis, we identified studies investigating the effect of daily step count on all-cause mortality in adults (aged ≥18 years), via a previously published systematic review and expert knowledge of the field. We asked participating study investigators to process their participant-level data following a standardised protocol. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality collected from death certificates and country registries. We analysed the dose-response association of steps per day and stepping rate with all-cause mortality. We did Cox proportional hazards regression analyses using study-specific quartiles of steps per day and calculated hazard ratios (HRs) with inverse-variance weighted random effects models.FINDINGS: We identified 15 studies, of which seven were published and eight were unpublished, with study start dates between 1999 and 2018. The total sample included 47 471 adults, among whom there were 3013 deaths (10·1 per 1000 participant-years) over a median follow-up of 7·1 years ([IQR 4·3-9·9]; total sum of follow-up across studies was 297 837 person-years). Quartile median steps per day were 3553 for quartile 1, 5801 for quartile 2, 7842 for quartile 3, and 10 901 for quartile 4. Compared with the lowest quartile, the adjusted HR for all-cause mortality was 0·60 (95% CI 0·51-0·71) for quartile 2, 0·55 (0·49-0·62) for quartile 3, and 0·47 (0·39-0·57) for quartile 4. Restricted cubic splines showed progressively decreasing risk of mortality among adults aged 60 years and older with increasing number of steps per day until 6000-8000 steps per day and among adults younger than 60 years until 8000-10 000 steps per day. Adjusting for number of steps per day, comparing quartile 1 with quartile 4, the association between higher stepping rates and mortality was attenuated but remained significant for a peak of 30 min (HR 0·67 [95% CI 0·56-0·83]) and a peak of 60 min (0·67 [0·50-0·90]), but not significant for time (min per day) spent walking at 40 steps per min or faster (1·12 [0·96-1·32]) and 100 steps per min or faster (0·86 [0·58-1·28]).INTERPRETATION: Taking more steps per day was associated with a progressively lower risk of all-cause mortality, up to a level that varied by age. The findings from this meta-analysis can be used to inform step guidelines for public health promotion of physical activity.FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
  •  
27.
  • Paluch, Amanda E., et al. (author)
  • Prospective association of daily steps with cardiovascular disease : a harmonized meta-analysis
  • 2023
  • In: Circulation. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 147:2, s. 122-131
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Taking fewer than the widely promoted "10 000 steps per day" has recently been associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. The relationship of steps and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk remains poorly described. A meta-analysis examining the dose-response relationship between steps per day and CVD can help inform clinical and public health guidelines.METHODS: Eight prospective studies (20 152 adults [ie, ≥18 years of age]) were included with device-measured steps and participants followed for CVD events. Studies quantified steps per day and CVD events were defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were completed using study-specific quartiles and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI were meta-analyzed with inverse-variance-weighted random effects models.RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 63.2±12.4 years and 52% were women. The mean follow-up was 6.2 years (123 209 person-years), with a total of 1523 CVD events (12.4 per 1000 participant-years) reported. There was a significant difference in the association of steps per day and CVD between older (ie, ≥60 years of age) and younger adults (ie, <60 years of age). For older adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.93), 0.62 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.52 to 0.74), and 0.51 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.41 to 0.63) compared with the lowest quartile. For younger adults, the HR for quartile 2 was 0.79 (95% CI, 0.46 to 1.35), 0.90 for quartile 3 (95% CI, 0.64 to 1.25), and 0.95 for quartile 4 (95% CI, 0.61 to 1.48) compared with the lowest quartile. Restricted cubic splines demonstrated a nonlinear association whereby more steps were associated with decreased risk of CVD among older adults.CONCLUSIONS: For older adults, taking more daily steps was associated with a progressively decreased risk of CVD. Monitoring and promoting steps per day is a simple metric for clinician-patient communication and population health to reduce the risk of CVD.
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28.
  • Jacobs, Eric J, et al. (author)
  • Family history of cancer and risk of pancreatic cancer : A pooled analysis from the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium (PanScan).
  • 2010
  • In: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215.
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • A family history of pancreatic cancer has consistently been associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. However, uncertainty remains about the strength of this association. Results from previous studies suggest a family history of select cancers (i.e., ovarian, breast and colorectal) could also be associated, although not as strongly, with increased risk of pancreatic cancer. We examined the association between a family history of 5 types of cancer (pancreas, prostate, ovarian, breast and colorectal) and risk of pancreatic cancer using data from a collaborative nested case-control study conducted by the Pancreatic Cancer Cohort Consortium. Cases and controls were from cohort studies from the United States, Europe and China, and a case-control study from the Mayo Clinic. Analyses of family history of pancreatic cancer included 1,183 cases and 1,205 controls. A family history of pancreatic cancer in a parent, sibling or child was associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer [multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) = 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19-2.61]. A family history of prostate cancer was also associated with increased risk (OR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.12-1.89). There were no statistically significant associations with a family history of ovarian cancer (OR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.52-1.31), breast cancer (OR = 1.21, 95% CI = 0.97-1.51) or colorectal cancer (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.93-1.47). Our results confirm a moderate sized association between a family history of pancreatic cancer and risk of pancreatic cancer and also provide evidence for an association with a family history of prostate cancer worth further study.
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29.
  • Kariuki, Symon M., et al. (author)
  • Prevalence and factors associated with convulsive status epilepticus in Africans with epilepsy
  • 2015
  • In: Neurology. - 0028-3878 .- 1526-632X. ; 84:18, s. 1838-1845
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objective:We conducted a community survey to estimate the prevalence and describe the features, risk factors, and consequences of convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) among people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) identified in a multisite survey in Africa.Methods:We obtained clinical histories of CSE and neurologic examination data among 1,196 people with ACE identified from a population of 379,166 people in 3 sites: Agincourt, South Africa; Iganga-Mayuge, Uganda; and Kilifi, Kenya. We performed serologic assessment for the presence of antibodies to parasitic infections and HIV and determined adherence to antiepileptic drugs. Consequences of CSE were assessed using a questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors.Results:The adjusted prevalence of CSE in ACE among the general population across the 3 sites was 2.3 per 1,000, and differed with site (p < 0.0001). Over half (55%) of CSE occurred in febrile illnesses and focal seizures were present in 61%. Risk factors for CSE in ACE were neurologic impairments, acute encephalopathy, previous hospitalization, and presence of antibody titers to falciparum malaria and HIV; these differed across sites. Burns (15%), lack of education (49%), being single (77%), and unemployment (78%) were common in CSE; these differed across the 3 sites. Nine percent with and 10% without CSE died.Conclusions:CSE is common in people with ACE in Africa; most occurs with febrile illnesses, is untreated, and has focal features suggesting preventable risk factors. Effective prevention and the management of infections and neurologic impairments may reduce the burden of CSE in ACE.
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30.
  • Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al. (author)
  • Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
  • 2016
  • In: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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31.
  • de Erausquin, Gabriel A, et al. (author)
  • Chronic neuropsychiatric sequelae of SARS-CoV-2: Protocol and methods from the Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium.
  • 2022
  • In: Alzheimer's & dementia (New York, N. Y.). - : Wiley. - 2352-8737. ; 8:1
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused >3.5 million deaths worldwide and affected >160 million people. At least twice as many have been infected but remained asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic. COVID-19 includes central nervous system manifestations mediated by inflammation and cerebrovascular, anoxic, and/or viral neurotoxicity mechanisms. More than one third of patients with COVID-19 develop neurologic problems during the acute phase of the illness, including loss of sense of smell or taste, seizures, and stroke. Damage or functional changes to the brain may result in chronic sequelae. The risk of incident cognitive and neuropsychiatric complications appears independent from the severity of the original pulmonary illness. It behooves the scientific and medical community to attempt to understand the molecular and/or systemic factors linking COVID-19 to neurologic illness, both short and long term.This article describes what is known so far in terms of links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias. We focus on risk factors and possible molecular, inflammatory, and viral mechanisms underlying neurological injury. We also provide a comprehensive description of the Alzheimer's Association Consortium on Chronic Neuropsychiatric Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (CNS SC2) harmonized methodology to address these questions using a worldwide network of researchers and institutions.Successful harmonization of designs and methods was achieved through a consensus process initially fragmented by specific interest groups (epidemiology, clinical assessments, cognitive evaluation, biomarkers, and neuroimaging). Conclusions from subcommittees were presented to the whole group and discussed extensively. Presently data collection is ongoing at 19 sites in 12 countries representing Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Europe.The Alzheimer's Association Global Consortium harmonized methodology is proposed as a model to study long-term neurocognitive sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection.The following review describes what is known so far in terms of molecular and epidemiological links among COVID-19, the brain, neurological symptoms, and AD and related dementias (ADRD)The primary objective of this large-scale collaboration is to clarify the pathogenesis of ADRD and to advance our understanding of the impact of a neurotropic virus on the long-term risk of cognitive decline and other CNS sequelae. No available evidence supports the notion that cognitive impairment after SARS-CoV-2 infection is a form of dementia (ADRD or otherwise). The longitudinal methodologies espoused by the consortium are intended to provide data to answer this question as clearly as possible controlling for possible confounders. Our specific hypothesis is that SARS-CoV-2 triggers ADRD-like pathology following the extended olfactory cortical network (EOCN) in older individuals with specific genetic susceptibility.The proposed harmonization strategies and flexible study designs offer the possibility to include large samples of under-represented racial and ethnic groups, creating a rich set of harmonized cohorts for future studies of the pathophysiology, determinants, long-term consequences, and trends in cognitive aging, ADRD, and vascular disease.We provide a framework for current and future studies to be carried out within the Consortium. and offers a "green paper" to the research community with a very broad, global base of support, on tools suitable for low- and middle-income countries aimed to compare and combine future longitudinal data on the topic.The Consortium proposes a combination of design and statistical methods as a means of approaching causal inference of the COVID-19 neuropsychiatric sequelae. We expect that deep phenotyping of neuropsychiatric sequelae may provide a series of candidate syndromes with phenomenological and biological characterization that can be further explored. By generating high-quality harmonized data across sites we aim to capture both descriptive and, where possible, causal associations.
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32.
  • Ibinda, Fredrick, et al. (author)
  • Burden of epilepsy in rural Kenya measured in disability-adjusted life years
  • 2014
  • In: Epilepsia. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0013-9580 .- 1528-1167. ; 55:10, s. 1626-1633
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • ObjectivesThe burden of epilepsy, in terms of both morbidity and mortality, is likely to vary depending on the etiology (primary [genetic/unknown] vs. secondary [structural/metabolic]) and with the use of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). We estimated the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and modeled the remission rates of active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) using epidemiologic data collected over the last decade in rural Kilifi, Kenya.MethodsWe used measures of prevalence, incidence, and mortality to model the remission of epilepsy using disease-modeling software (DisMod II). DALYs were calculated as the sum of Years Lost to Disability (YLD) and Years of Life Lost (YLL) due to premature death using the prevalence approach, with disability weights (DWs) from the 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. DALYs were calculated with R statistical software with the associated uncertainty intervals (UIs) computed by bootstrapping.ResultsA total of 1,005 (95% UI 797-1,213) DALYs were lost to ACE, which is 433 (95% UI 393-469) DALYs lost per 100,000 people. Twenty-six percent (113/100,000/year, 95% UI 106-117) of the DALYs were due to YLD and 74% (320/100,000/year, 95% UI 248-416) to YLL. Primary epilepsy accounted for fewer DALYs than secondary epilepsy (98 vs. 334 DALYs per 100,000 people). Those taking AEDs contributed fewer DALYs than those not taking AEDs (167 vs. 266 DALYs per 100,000 people). The proportion of people with ACE in remission per year was estimated at 11.0% in males and 12.0% in females, with highest rates in the 0-5year age group.SignificanceThe DALYs for ACE are high in rural Kenya, but less than the estimates of 2010 GBD study. Three-fourths of DALYs resulted from secondary epilepsy. Use of AEDs was associated with 40% reduction of DALYs. Improving adherence to AEDs may reduce the burden of epilepsy in this area.
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33.
  • Ibinda, Fredrick, et al. (author)
  • Magnitude and factors associated with nonadherence to antiepileptic drug treatment in Africa : a cross-sectional multisite study
  • 2017
  • In: Epilepsia Open. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2470-9239. ; 2:2, s. 226-235
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objectives: The epilepsy treatment gap is large in low- and middle-income countries, but the reasons behind nonadherence to treatment with antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) across African countries remain unclear. We investigated the extent to which AEDs are not taken and associated factors in people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) identified in cross-sectional studies conducted in five African countries.Methods: We approached 2,192 people with a confirmed diagnosis of ACE for consent to give blood voluntarily. Participants were asked if they were taking AEDs, and plasma drug concentrations were measured using a fluorescence polarization immunoassay analyzer. Information about possible risk factors was collected using questionnaire-based clinical interviews. We determined factors associated with nonadherence to AED treatment in children and adults, as measured by detectable and optimal levels, using multilevel logistic regression.Results: In 1,303 samples assayed (43.7% were children), AEDs were detected in 482, but only 287 had optimal levels. Of the 1,303 samples, 532 (40.8%) were from people who had reported they were on AEDs. The overall prevalence of nonadherence to treatment was 63.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 60.5–65.6%) as measured by detectable AED levels and 79.1% (95% CI 73.3–84.3%) as measured by optimal AED levels; self-reported nonadherence was 65.1% (95% CI 45.0–79.5%). Nonadherence was significantly (p < 0.001) more common among the children than among adults for optimal and detectable levels of AEDs, as was the self-reported nonadherence. In children, lack of previous hospitalization and learning difficulties were independently associated with nonadherence to treatment. In adults, history of delivery at home, absence of burn marks, and not seeking traditional medicine were independently associated with the nonadherence to AED treatment.Significance: Only about 20% of people with epilepsy benefit fully from antiepileptic drugs in sub-Saharan Africa, according to optimum AEDs levels. Children taking AEDs should be supervised to promote compliance.
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34.
  • Jack, Helen, et al. (author)
  • Closing the mental health treatment gap in South Africa : a review of costs and cost-effectiveness
  • 2014
  • In: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7, s. 137-147
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Nearly one in three South Africans will suffer from a mental disorder in his or her lifetime, a higher prevalence than many low- and middle-income countries. Understanding the economic costs and consequences of prevention and packages of care is essential, particularly as South Africa considers scaling-up mental health services and works towards universal health coverage. Economic evaluations can inform how priorities are set in system or spending changes.Objective: To identify and review research from South Africa and sub-Saharan Africa on the direct and indirect costs of mental, neurological, and substance use (MNS) disorders and the cost-effectiveness of treatment interventions.Design: Narrative overview methodology.Results and conclusions: Reviewed studies indicate that integrating mental health care into existing health systems may be the most effective and cost-efficient approach to increase access to mental health services in South Africa. Integration would also direct treatment, prevention, and screening to people with HIV and other chronic health conditions who are at high risk for mental disorders. We identify four major knowledge gaps: 1) accurate and thorough assessment of the health burdens of MNS disorders, 2) design and assessment of interventions that integrate mental health screening and treatment into existing health systems, 3) information on the use and costs of traditional medicines, and 4) cost-effectiveness evaluation of a range of specific interventions or packages of interventions that are tailored to the national context.
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35.
  • Kamuyu, Gathoni, et al. (author)
  • Exposure to Multiple Parasites Is Associated with the Prevalence of Active Convulsive Epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 2014
  • In: PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1935-2727 .- 1935-2735. ; 8:5
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Epilepsy is common in developing countries, and it is often associated with parasitic infections. We investigated the relationship between exposure to parasitic infections, particularly multiple infections and active convulsive epilepsy (ACE), in five sites across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods and Findings: A case-control design that matched on age and location was used. Blood samples were collected from 986 prevalent cases and 1,313 age-matched community controls and tested for presence of antibodies to Onchocerca volvulus, Toxocara canis, Toxoplasma gondii, Plasmodium falciparum, Taenia solium and HIV. Exposure (seropositivity) to Onchocerca volvulus (OR = 1.98; 95% CI: 1.52-2.58, p<0.001), Toxocara canis (OR = 1.52; 95% CI: 1.23-1.87, p<0.001), Toxoplasma gondii (OR = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.04-1.56, p=0.018) and higher antibody levels (top tertile) to Toxocara canis (OR = 1.70; 95% CI: 1.30-2.24, p<0.001) were associated with an increased prevalence of ACE. Exposure to multiple infections was common (73.8% of cases and 65.5% of controls had been exposed to two or more infections), and for T. gondii and O. volvulus co-infection, their combined effect on the prevalence of ACE, as determined by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI), was more than additive (T. gondii and O. volvulus, RERI = 1.19). The prevalence of T. solium antibodies was low (2.8% of cases and 2.2% of controls) and was not associated with ACE in the study areas. Conclusion: This study investigates how the degree of exposure to parasites and multiple parasitic infections are associated with ACE and may explain conflicting results obtained when only seropositivity is considered. The findings from this study should be further validated.
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36.
  • Kariuki, Symon M., et al. (author)
  • Electroencephalographic features of convulsive epilepsy in Africa : A multicentre study of prevalence, pattern and associated factors
  • 2016
  • In: Clinical Neurophysiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1388-2457 .- 1872-8952. ; 127:2, s. 1099-1107
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Objective: We investigated the prevalence and pattern of electroencephalographic (EEG) features of epilepsy and the associated factors in Africans with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE).Methods: We characterized electroencephalographic features and determined associated factors in a sample of people with ACE in five African sites. Mixed-effects modified Poisson regression model was used to determine factors associated with abnormal EEGs.Results: Recordings were performed on 1426 people of whom 751 (53%) had abnormal EEGs, being an adjusted prevalence of 2.7 (95% confidence interval (95% CI), 2.5–2.9) per 1000. 52% of the abnormal EEG had focal features (75% with temporal lobeinvolvement). The frequency and pattern of changes differed with site. Abnormal EEGs were associated with adverse perinatal events (risk ratio (RR) = 1.19 (95% CI, 1.07–1.33)), cognitive impairments (RR = 1.50 (95% CI, 1.30–1.73)), use of anti-epilepticdrugs (RR = 1.25 (95% CI, 1.05–1.49)), focal seizures (RR = 1.09 (95% CI, 1.00–1.19)) and seizure frequency (RR = 1.18 (95% CI, 1.10–1.26) for daily seizures; RR = 1.22 (95% CI, 1.10–1.35) for weekly seizures and RR = 1.15 (95% CI, 1.03–1.28) for monthly seizures)).Conclusions: EEG abnormalities are common in Africans with epilepsy and are associated with preventable risk factors.Significance: EEG is helpful in identifying focal epilepsy in Africa, where timing of focal aetiologies is problematic and there is a lack of neuroimaging services.
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37.
  • Newton, Charles R., et al. (author)
  • Infectious causes of epilepsy?
  • 2014. - 1
  • In: Neglected tropical diseases and conditions of the nervous system. - New York : Springer. - 9781461481003 - 9781461480990 ; , s. 355-367
  • Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Epilepsy occurs throughout the world, and the prevalence appears to be higher in areas in which the incidence of infections of the central nervous system (CNS) is greater. However, establishing the causal relationship between infections and the development of epilepsy is difficult, since epilepsy occurs a variable period after an acute infection. In addition to this, not all people with chronic infestations of parasites develop epilepsy. We discuss possible CNS infections, particularly the neglected diseases associated with epilepsy, looking at possible mechanisms of epileptogenesis.
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38.
  • Ngugi, Anthony K., et al. (author)
  • Prevalence of active convulsive epilepsy in sub-Saharan Africa and associated risk factors : cross-sectional and case-control studies
  • 2013
  • In: Lancet Neurology. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 12:3, s. 253-263
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background The prevalence of epilepsy in sub-Saharan Africa seems to be higher than in other parts of the world, but estimates vary substantially for unknown reasons. We assessed the prevalence and risk factors of active convulsive epilepsy across five centres in this region. Methods We did large population-based cross-sectional and case-control studies in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System centres: Kilifi, Kenya (Dec 3, 2007-July 31, 2008); Agincourt, South Africa (Aug 4, 2008-Feb 27, 2009); Iganga-Mayuge, Uganda (Feb 2, 2009-Oct 30, 2009); Ifakara, Tanzania (May 4, 2009-Dec 31, 2009); and Kintampo, Ghana (Aug 2, 2010-April 29, 2011). We used a three-stage screening process to identify people with active convulsive epilepsy. Prevalence was estimated as the ratio of confirmed cases to the population screened and was adjusted for sensitivity and attrition between stages. For each case, an age-matched control individual was randomly selected from the relevant centre's census database. Fieldworkers masked to the status of the person they were interviewing administered questionnaires to individuals with active convulsive epilepsy and control individuals to assess sociodemographic variables and historical risk factors (perinatal events, head injuries, and diet). Blood samples were taken from a randomly selected subgroup of 300 participants with epilepsy and 300 control individuals from each centre and were screened for antibodies to Toxocara canis, Toxoplasma gondii, Onchocerca volvulus, Plasmodium falciparum, Taenia solium, and HIV. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) with logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, education, employment, and marital status. Results 586 607 residents in the study areas were screened in stage one, of whom 1711 were diagnosed as having active convulsive epilepsy. Prevalence adjusted for attrition and sensitivity varied between sites: 7.8 per 1000 people (95% CI 7.5-8.2) in Kilifi, 7.0 (6.2-7.4) in Agincourt, 10.3 (9.5-11.1) in Iganga-Mayuge, 14.8 (13.8-15.4) in Ifakara, and 10.1 (9.5-10.7) in Kintampo. The 1711 individuals with the disorder and 2032 control individuals were given questionnaires. In children (aged <18 years), the greatest relative increases in prevalence were associated with difficulties feeding, crying, or breathing after birth (OR 10.23, 95% CI 5 85-1788; p<0.0001); abnormal antenatal periods (2.15, 1.53-3.02; p<0.0001); and head injury (1.97, 1.28-3.03; p=0.002). In adults (aged >= 18 years), the disorder was significantly associated with admission to hospital with malaria or fever (2.28, 1.06-4.92; p=0.036), exposure to T canis (1.74, 1.27-2.40; p=0.0006), exposure to T gondii (1.39, 1.05-1.84; p=0.021), and exposure to 0 volvulus (2.23, 1.56-3.19; p<0.0001). Hypertension (2.13, 1.08-4.20; p=0.029) and exposure to T solium (7.03, 2.06-24.00; p=0.002) were risk factors for adult-onset disease. Interpretation The prevalence of active convulsive epilepsy varies in sub-Saharan Africa and that the variation is probably a result of differences in risk factors. Programmes to control parasitic diseases and interventions to improve antenatal and perinatal care could substantially reduce the prevalence of epilepsy in this region.
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39.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Community health workers to improve adherence to anti-seizure medication in rural South Africa : Is it cost-effective?
  • 2021
  • In: Epilepsia. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0013-9580 .- 1528-1167. ; 62:1, s. 98-106
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: Epilepsy is a common, chronic neurological disorder that disproportionately affects individuals living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the treatment gap remains high and adherence to medication remains low. Community health workers (CHWs) have been shown to be effective at improving adherence to chronic medications, yet no study assessing the costs of CHWs in epilepsy management has been reported.METHODS: Using a Markov model with age- and sex-varying transition probabilities, we determined whether deploying CHWs to improve epilepsy treatment adherence in rural South Africa would be cost-effective. Data were derived using published studies from rural South Africa. Official statistics and international disability weights provided cost and health state values, respectively, and health gains were measured using quality adjusted life years (QALYs).RESULTS: The intervention was estimated at International Dollars ($) 123 250 per annum per sub-district community and cost $1494 and $1857 per QALY gained for males and females, respectively. Assuming a costlier intervention and lower effectiveness, cost per QALY was still less than South Africa's Gross Domestic Product per capita of $13 215, the cost-effectiveness threshold applied.SIGNIFICANCE: CHWs would be cost-effective and the intervention dominated even when costs and effects of the intervention were unfavorably varied. Health system re-engineering currently underway in South Africa identifies CHWs as vital links in primary health care, thereby ensuring sustainability of the intervention. Further research on understanding local health state utility values and cost-effectiveness thresholds could further inform the current model, and undertaking the proposed intervention would provide better estimates of its efficacy on reducing the epilepsy treatment gap in rural South Africa.
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40.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Differing Methods and Definitions Influence DALY estimates : Using Population-Based Data to Calculate the Burden of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural South Africa
  • 2015
  • In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:12
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • BackgroundThe disability adjusted life year (DALY) is a composite measure of disease burden that includes both morbidity and mortality, and is relevant to conditions such as epilepsy that can limit productive functioning. The 2010 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study introduced a number of new methods and definitions, including a prevalence-based approach and revised disability weights to calculate morbidity and new standard life expectancies to calculate premature mortality. We used these approaches, and local, population-based data, to estimate the burden of convulsive epilepsy in rural South Africa.Methods & FindingsComprehensive prevalence, incidence and mortality data on convulsive epilepsy were collected within the Agincourt sub-district in rural northeastern South Africa between 2008 and 2012. We estimated DALYs using both prevalence- and incidence-based approaches for calculating years of life lived with disability. Additionally, we explored how changing the disease model by varying the disability weights influenced DALY estimates. Using the prevalence- based approach, convulsive epilepsy in Agincourt resulted in 332 DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 216-455) and 4.1 DALYs per 1,000 individuals (95% UI: 2.7-5.7) annually. Of this, 26% was due to morbidity while 74% was due to premature mortality. DALYs increased by 10% when using the incidence-based method. Varying the disability weight from 0.072 (treated epilepsy, seizure free) to 0.657 (severe epilepsy) caused years lived with disability to increase from 18 (95%UI: 16-19) to 161 (95%UI: 143-170).ConclusionsDALY estimates are influenced by both the methods applied and population parameters used in the calculation. Irrespective of method, a significant burden of epilepsy is due to premature mortality in rural South Africa, with a lower burden than rural Kenya. Researchers and national policymakers should carefully interrogate the methods and data used to calculate DALYs as this will influence policy priorities and resource allocation.
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41.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Epilepsy care cascade, treatment gap and its determinants in rural South Africa
  • 2020
  • In: Seizure. - : Elsevier. - 1059-1311 .- 1532-2688. ; 80, s. 175-180
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Purpose: The percentage of people who are diagnosed with epilepsy (diagnostic gap), access, receive and adhere (treatment gap) to anti-seizure medication (ASM) in low- and middle- income countries remains low. We explored the epilepsy care cascade, measured the diagnostic and treatment gaps, and examined socio-demographic factors associated with adherence to ASMs in rural South Africa.Methods: Utilizing a population-based cohort of 311 people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) residing in rural northeastern South Africa, a questionnaire was administered to examine associations between demographic and socioeconomic factors and the epilepsy treatment gap. Blood was taken to measure levels of ASMs.Results: Of the 311 individuals diagnosed, 93 % of individuals reported being previously told they had epilepsy and 94 % reported previously attending a health facility for their epilepsy. ASMs were detected in 138 individuals (76 %) and optimal levels were detected in 67 individuals, resulting in a treatment gap of 63 % (95 % confidence interval [95 %CI]: 56 %-70 %). Self-reported specificity of ASM use was 23 % (95 %CI: 12-39 %) and individuals >= 18 years were significantly more likely to report taking ASM than children and were significantly (p = 0.011) more likely to be adherent.Conclusion: Most people with epilepsy in rural South Africa had been previously diagnosed with epilepsy and had accessed care for epilepsy, yet the level of ASM adherence remained low, significantly lower amongst children. Understanding ways of improving knowledge of and adherence to ASM in rural South Africa is necessary, especially amongst children. The epilepsy care cascade can be useful in identifying gaps in care and targeting interventions to reduce these gaps.
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42.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Health care utilization and outpatient, out-of-pocket costs for active convulsive epilepsy in rural northeastern South Africa : a cross-sectional survey
  • 2016
  • In: BMC Health Services Research. - : BioMed Central. - 1472-6963. ; 16
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder, with over 80 % of cases found in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Studies from high-income countries find a significant economic burden associated with epilepsy, yet few studies from LMICs, where out-of-pocket costs for general healthcare can be substantial, have assessed out-of-pocket costs and health care utilization for outpatient epilepsy care.Methods: Within an established health and socio-demographic surveillance system in rural South Africa, a questionnaire to assess self-reported health care utilization and time spent traveling to and waiting to be seen at health facilities was administered to 250 individuals, previously diagnosed with active convulsive epilepsy. Epilepsy patients' out-of-pocket, medical and non-medical costs and frequency of outpatient care visits during the previous 12-months were determined.Results: Within the last year, 132 (53 %) individuals reported consulting at a clinic, 162 (65 %) at a hospital and 34 (14 %) with traditional healers for epilepsy care. Sixty-seven percent of individuals reported previously consulting with both biomedical caregivers and traditional healers. Direct outpatient, median costs per visit varied significantly (p < 0.001) between hospital (2010 International dollar ($) 9.08; IQR: $6.41-$12.83) and clinic consultations ($1.74; IQR: $0-$5.58). Traditional healer fees per visit were found to cost $52.36 (IQR: $34.90-$87.26) per visit. Average annual outpatient, clinic and hospital out-of-pocket costs totaled $58.41. Traveling to and from and waiting to be seen by the caregiver at the hospital took significantly longer than at the clinic.Conclusions: Rural South Africans with epilepsy consult with both biomedical caregivers and traditional healers for both epilepsy and non-epilepsy care. Traditional healers were the most expensive mode of care, though utilized less often. While higher out-of-pocket costs were incurred at hospital visits, more people with ACE visited hospitals than clinics for epilepsy care. Promoting increased use and effective care at clinics and reducing travel and waiting times could substantially reduce the out-of-pocket costs of outpatient epilepsy care.
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43.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Incidence, Remission and Mortality of Convulsive Epilepsy in Rural Northeast South Africa
  • 2015
  • In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 10:6
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Epilepsy is one of the most common neurological conditions globally, estimated to constitute 0.75% of the global burden of disease, with the majority of this burden found in low- and middle- income countries (LMICs). Few studies from LMICs, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, have described the incidence, remission or mortality rates due to epilepsy, which are needed to quantify the burden and inform policy. This study investigates the epidemiological parameters of convulsive epilepsy within a context of high HIV prevalence and an emerging burden of cardiovascular disease. Methods A cross-sectional population survey of 82,818 individuals, in the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa was conducted in 2008, from which 296 people were identified with active convulsive epilepsy. A follow-up survey was conducted in 2012. Incidence and mortality rates were estimated, with duration and remission rates calculated using the DISMOD II software package. Results The crude incidence for convulsive epilepsy was 17.4/100,000 per year (95%CI: 13.1-23.0). Remission was 4.6% and 3.9% per year for males and females, respectively. The standardized mortality ratio was 2.6 (95%CI: 1.7-3.5), with 33.3% of deaths directly related to epilepsy. Mortality was higher in men than women (adjusted rate ratio (aRR) 2.6 (95%CI: 1.2-5.4)), and was significantly associated with older ages (50+ years versus those 0-5 years old (RR 4.8 (95%CI: 0.6-36.4)). Conclusions The crude incidence was lower whilst mortality rates were similar to other African studies; however, this study found higher mortality amongst older males. Efforts aimed at further understanding what causes epilepsy in older people and developing interventions to reduce prolonged seizures are likely to reduce the overall burden of ACE in rural South Africa.
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44.
  • Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author)
  • Prevalence and risk factors for active convulsive epilepsy in rural northeast South Africa
  • 2014
  • In: Epilepsy Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0920-1211 .- 1872-6844. ; 108:4, s. 782-791
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Rationale: Epilepsy is among the most common neurological disorders there are few large, population-based studies of the prevalence and risk southern Africa. Methods: From August 2008 to February 2009, as part of a multi-site study, we undertook a three-stage, population-based study, embedded within the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system, to estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors of active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in a rural South African population. Results: The crude prevalence of ACE, after adjusting for non-response and the sensitivity of the screening method, was 7.0/1,000 individuals (95%CI 6.4-7.6) with significant geographic heterogeneity across the study area. Being male (OR= 2.3; 95%CI 1.6-3.2), family history of seizures (OR =4.0; 95%CI 2.0-8.1), a sibling with seizures (OR = 7.0; 95%CI 1.6-31.7), problems after delivery (OR= 5.9; 95%CI 1.2-24.6), and history of snoring (OR =6.5; 95%CI 4.5-9.5) were significantly associated with ACE. For children, their mother's exposure to some formal schooling was protective (OR = 0.30; 95%CI 0.11-0.84) after controlling for age and sex. Human immunodeficiency virus was not found to be associated with ACE. Conclusions: ACE is less frequent in this part of rural South Africa than other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Improving obstetric services could prevent epilepsy. The relationship between snoring and ACE requires further investigation, as does the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to examine the increased risk in those with a family history of epilepsy. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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