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- Achberger, Christine, 1968, et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2011
- 2012
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In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007. ; 93:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.
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- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(author)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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- Pihl, E., et al.
(author)
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Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
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In: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
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- Li, M., et al.
(author)
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Non-human Primate Models to Investigate Mechanisms of Infection-Associated Fetal and Pediatric Injury, Teratogenesis and Stillbirth
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Genetics. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-8021. ; 12
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A wide array of pathogens has the potential to injure the fetus and induce teratogenesis, the process by which mutations in fetal somatic cells lead to congenital malformations. Rubella virus was the first infectious disease to be linked to congenital malformations due to an infection in pregnancy, which can include congenital cataracts, microcephaly, hearing impairment and congenital heart disease. Currently, human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) is the leading infectious cause of congenital malformations globally, affecting 1 in every 200 infants. However, our knowledge of teratogenic viruses and pathogens is far from complete. New emerging infectious diseases may induce teratogenesis, similar to Zika virus (ZIKV) that caused a global pandemic in 2016-2017; thousands of neonates were born with congenital microcephaly due to ZIKV exposure in utero, which also included a spectrum of injuries to the brain, eyes and spinal cord. In addition to congenital anomalies, permanent injury to fetal and neonatal organs, preterm birth, stillbirth and spontaneous abortion are known consequences of a broader group of infectious diseases including group B streptococcus (GBS), Listeria monocytogenes, Influenza A virus (IAV), and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). Animal models are crucial for determining the mechanism of how these various infectious diseases induce teratogenesis or organ injury, as well as testing novel therapeutics for fetal or neonatal protection. Other mammalian models differ in many respects from human pregnancy including placentation, labor physiology, reproductive tract anatomy, timeline of fetal development and reproductive toxicology. In contrast, non-human primates (NHP) most closely resemble human pregnancy and exhibit key similarities that make them ideal for research to discover the mechanisms of injury and for testing vaccines and therapeutics to prevent teratogenesis, fetal and neonatal injury and adverse pregnancy outcomes (e.g., stillbirth or spontaneous abortion). In this review, we emphasize key contributions of the NHP model pre-clinical research for ZIKV, HCMV, HIV, IAV, L. monocytogenes, Ureaplasma species, and GBS. This work represents the foundation for development and testing of preventative and therapeutic strategies to inhibit infectious injury of human fetuses and neonates.
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- Schlebusch, Carina M., et al.
(author)
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Possible positive selection for an arsenic-protective haplotype in humans
- 2013
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In: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Environmental Health Perspectives. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 121:1, s. 53-58
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Arsenic in drinking water causes severe health effects. Indigenous people in the South American Andes have likely lived with arsenic-contaminated drinking water for thousands of years. Inhabitants of San Antonio de los Cobres (SAC) in the Argentinean highlands generally carry an AS3MT (the major arsenic-metabolizing gene) haplotype associated with reduced health risks due to rapid arsenic excretion and lower urinary fraction of the monomethylated metabolite.Objectives: We hypothesized an adaptation to high-arsenic living conditions via a possible positive selection for protective AS3MT variants and compared AS3MT haplotype frequencies among different indigenous groups. Methods: Indigenous groups we evaluated were a) inhabitants of SAC and villages near Salta in northern Argentina (n = 346), b) three Native American populations from the Human Genome Diversity Project (HGDP; n = 25), and c) five Peruvian populations (n = 97). The last two groups have presumably lower historical exposure to arsenic.Results: We found a significantly higher frequency of the protective AS3MT haplotype in the SAC population (68.7%) compared with the HGDP (14.3%, p < 0.001, Fisher exact test) and Peruvian (50.5%, p < 0.001) populations. Genome-wide microsatellite (n = 671) analysis showed no detectable level of population structure between SAC and Peruvian populations (measure of population differentiation FST = 0.006) and low levels of structure between SAC and HGDP populations (FST < 0.055 for all pairs of populations compared). Conclusions: Because population stratification seems unlikely to explain the differences in AS3MT haplotype frequencies, our data raise the possibility that, during a few thousand years, natural selection for tolerance to the environmental stressor arsenic may have increased the frequency of protective variants of AS3MT. Further studies are needed to investigate this hypothesis.
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- Abacan, MaryAnn, et al.
(author)
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The Global State of the Genetic Counseling Profession
- 2019
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In: European Journal of Human Genetics. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 1018-4813 .- 1476-5438. ; 27:2, s. 183-197
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The profession of genetic counseling (also called genetic counselling in many countries) began nearly 50 years ago in the United States, and has grown internationally in the past 30 years. While there have been many papers describing the profession of genetic counseling in individual countries or regions, data remains incomplete and has been published in diverse journals with limited access. As a result of the 2016 Transnational Alliance of Genetic Counseling (TAGC) conference in Barcelona, Spain, and the 2017 World Congress of Genetic Counselling in the UK, we endeavor to describe as fully as possible the global state of genetic counseling as a profession. We estimate that in 2018 there are nearly 7000 genetic counselors with the profession established or developing in no less than 28 countries.
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- Botto, Fernando, et al.
(author)
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Frequency of early vascular aging and associated risk factors among an adult population in Latin America : the OPTIMO study
- 2018
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In: Journal of Human Hypertension. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0950-9240 .- 1476-5527. ; 32:3, s. 219-227
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The main objective was to estimate the frequency of early vascular aging (EVA) in a sample of subjects from Latin America, with emphasis in young adults. We included 1416 subjects from 12 countries in Latin America who provided information about lifestyle, cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF), and anthropometrics. We measured pulse wave velocity (PWV) as a marker of arterial stiffness, and blood pressure (BP) using an oscillometric device (Mobil-O-Graph). To determine the frequency of EVA, we used multiple linear regression to estimate each subject’s PWV expected for his/her age and systolic BP, and compared with observed values to obtain standardized residuals (z-scores). We defined EVA when z-score was ≥1.96. Finally, a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine baseline characteristics associated with EVA. Mean age was 49.9 ± 15.5 years, male gender was 50.3%. Mean PWV was 7.52 m/s (SD 1.97), mean systolic BP was 125.3 mmHg (SD 16.7) and mean diastolic BP was 78.9 mmHg (SD 12.2). The frequency of EVA was 5.7% in the total population, 9.8% in adults of 40 years or less and 18.7% in those 30 years or less. In these young adults, multiple logistic regression analyses demonstrated that dyslipidemia and hypertension showed an independent association with EVA, and smoking a borderline association (p = 0.07). In conclusion, the frequency of EVA in a sample from Latin America was around 6%, with higher rates in young adults. These results would support the search of CVRF and EVA during early adulthood.
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- Bruno, Raphael Romano, et al.
(author)
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The Clinical Frailty Scale for mortality prediction of old acutely admitted intensive care patients: a meta-analysis of individual patient-level data
- 2023
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In: Annals of Intensive Care. - : SPRINGER. - 2110-5820. ; 13:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background This large-scale analysis pools individual data about the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) to predict outcome in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A systematic search identified all clinical trials that used the CFS in the ICU (PubMed searched until 24th June 2020). All patients who were electively admitted were excluded. The primary outcome was ICU mortality. Regression models were estimated on the complete data set, and for missing data, multiple imputations were utilised. Cox models were adjusted for age, sex, and illness acuity score (SOFA, SAPS II or APACHE II). Results 12 studies from 30 countries with anonymised individualised patient data were included (n = 23,989 patients). In the univariate analysis for all patients, being frail (CFS >= 5) was associated with an increased risk of ICU mortality, but not after adjustment. In older patients (>= 65 years) there was an independent association with ICU mortality both in the complete case analysis (HR 1.34 (95% CI 1.25-1.44), p < 0.0001) and in the multiple imputation analysis (HR 1.35 (95% CI 1.26-1.45), p < 0.0001, adjusted for SOFA). In older patients, being vulnerable (CFS 4) alone did not significantly differ from being frail. After adjustment, a CFS of 4-5, 6, and >= 7 was associated with a significantly worse outcome compared to CFS of 1-3. Conclusions Being frail is associated with a significantly increased risk for ICU mortality in older patients, while being vulnerable alone did not significantly differ. New Frailty categories might reflect its "continuum" better and predict ICU outcome more accurately.
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