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| 2. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
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Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
- 2006
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In: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A main problem in nearly all contexts is that unguided decision making is tremendously difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to such from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. However, a key observation is that efficient decision making is not easily performed by using methods from one discipline only. The case is rather that if real world decision making is taken seriously, several aspects must be included. This article describes some efforts of the DECIDE research group for approaching decision making and developing DSSs in a cross-disciplinary environment.
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| 3. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(author)
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Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
- 2006
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In: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
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| 5. |
- Påhlman, Mona, et al.
(author)
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A study on Framing Effects in Risk Elicitation
- 2005
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In: Proceedings - International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, CIMCA 2005 and International Conference on Intelligent Agents, Web Technologies and Internet. - : IEEE conference proceedings. ; , s. 689-694, s. 689-694
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Decision analysis tools are an effective way of structuring complex decision situations. However, their failure to incorporate reliable methods for elicitation is a shortcoming that needs to be dealt with. Since different elicitation methods have shown to yield different results, it is important to more thoroughly emphasize on aspects that can reduce biased results. The development of methods that explicitly recognize framing problems and aim to reduce these effects are needed. This study deals with framing problems within elicitation and how to reduce discrepancies between normative and descriptive behaviour in elicited risk data. The results indicate that the extra transitional state in one of the presentation formats, here referred to as Trade for, generated data that deviated more from normative rules when participants experienced gain prospects. On the other hand, for loss prospects the format more in line with normative rules depended on the presentation order of probabilities.
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| 6. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(author)
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A study about different strategies in risk elicitation
- 2006
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In: Lect. Notes Eng. Comput. Sci.. - 9789889867133 ; , s. 1-6, s. 1-6
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations have implications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to be necessary.
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| 7. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(author)
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How different Choice Strategies Can Affect the Risk Elicitation Process
- 2006
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In: IAENG International Journal of Computer Science. - 1819-656X .- 1819-9224. ; 32:4, s. 460-465
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations haveimplications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to benecessary.
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| 8. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(author)
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Risk Elicitation in Precise and Imprecise Domains : A Comparative Study, Sweden and Brazil
- 2007
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In: CIMCA 2006: International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Modelling, Control and Automation, Jointly with IAWTIC 2006: International Conference on Intelligent Agents Web Technologies .... - 0769527310 - 9780769527314
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a comparative study between two groups from different cultural contexts, Sweden and Brazil, when choosing among risky prospects. The study explores whether there are differences in choice behaviours when the uncertainty in the prospects is expressed as interval estimates instead of the traditional use of point estimates, as well as when prospects are displayed with and without expected monetary values. Both groups display similar choice behaviours when they choose among prospects where uncertainty is expressed as point vs. interval estimates, whereas the Brazilian respondents are more affected by EMV information. The results indicate that the employment of intervals to represent uncertainty can be beneficial and could facilitate the elicitation part in the use and development of decision analytical tools. Furthermore, there is a need for more flexible tools, more adapted to a prescriptive approach, since people from different cultural contexts seem to differ in their choice behaviours.
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