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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Ogishi, M, et al.
(author)
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Impaired IL-23-dependent induction of IFN-γ underlies mycobacterial disease in patients with inherited TYK2 deficiency
- 2022
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In: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 219:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Human cells homozygous for rare loss-of-expression (LOE) TYK2 alleles have impaired, but not abolished, cellular responses to IFN-α/β (underlying viral diseases in the patients) and to IL-12 and IL-23 (underlying mycobacterial diseases). Cells homozygous for the common P1104A TYK2 allele have selectively impaired responses to IL-23 (underlying isolated mycobacterial disease). We report three new forms of TYK2 deficiency in six patients from five families homozygous for rare TYK2 alleles (R864C, G996R, G634E, or G1010D) or compound heterozygous for P1104A and a rare allele (A928V). All these missense alleles encode detectable proteins. The R864C and G1010D alleles are hypomorphic and loss-of-function (LOF), respectively, across signaling pathways. By contrast, hypomorphic G996R, G634E, and A928V mutations selectively impair responses to IL-23, like P1104A. Impairment of the IL-23–dependent induction of IFN-γ is the only mechanism of mycobacterial disease common to patients with complete TYK2 deficiency with or without TYK2 expression, partial TYK2 deficiency across signaling pathways, or rare or common partial TYK2 deficiency specific for IL-23 signaling.
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- Aghamohammadi, A, et al.
(author)
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Progression of selective IgA deficiency to common variable immunodeficiency
- 2008
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In: International archives of allergy and immunology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0097 .- 1018-2438. ; 147:2, s. 87-92
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Selective IgA deficiency (IgAD) is the most common primary immunodeficiency in Caucasians. Although it is often asymptomatic, selected patients show an increased frequency of infections, allergies and autoimmune manifestations. Common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) is a primary antibody deficiency disease that shares many clinical features with IgAD. A common genetic basis for IgAD and CVID has been suggested based on their occurrence in members of the same family and the similarity of the underlying B cell defects. Progression from IgAD to CVID has also been reported in several cases. Here we present 4 patients with IgAD and autoimmune features who subsequently developed CVID. All symptomatic IgAD patients, especially those with associated IgG subclass deficiency or autoimmune features, should be monitored for evolution to CVID. Early diagnosis of this conversion and institution of immunoglobulin therapy is effective in preventing severe bacterial infections and pulmonary insufficiency.
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- Delbari, MT, et al.
(author)
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Clinical Manifestations, Immunological Characteristics and Genetic Analysis of Patients with Hyper-Immunoglobulin M Syndrome in Iran
- 2019
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In: International archives of allergy and immunology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1423-0097 .- 1018-2438. ; 180:1, s. 52-63
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- <b><i>Background:</i></b> Hyper-immunoglobulin M (HIGM) syndrome is a rare heterogeneous group of primary immunodeficiency disorders characterized by low or absent serum levels of IgG and IgA along with normal or elevated serum levels of IgM. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Clinical and immunological data were collected from the 75 patients’ medical records diagnosed in Children’s Medical Center affiliated to Tehran University Medical Sciences and other Universities of Medical Sciences in Iran. Among 75 selected patients, 48 patients (64%) were analyzed genetically using targeted and whole-exome sequencing. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The ratio of male to female was 2.9:1. The median age at the onset of the disease, time of diagnosis, and diagnostic delay were 10.5, 50, and 24 months, respectively. Pneumonia and lower respiratory tract infections (61.3%) were the most common complications. Responsible genes were identified in 35 patients (72.9%) out 48 ge<i>netically</i> analyzed patients. <i>Cluster of differentiation 40 ligand</i> gene was the most mutated gene observed in 24 patients (68.5%) followed by <i>activation-induced cytidine deaminase</i> gene in 7 patients, <i>lipopolysaccharide-responsive and beige-like anchor</i> (1 patient), <i>nuclear factor-kappa-B essential modulator</i> (1 patient), <i>phosphoinositide-3-kinase regulatory subunit 1</i> (1 patient), and <i>nuclear factor kappa B subunit 1</i> (1 patient) genes. Nineteen (25.3%) patients died during the study period, and pneumonia was the major cause of death occurred in 6 (31.6%) patients. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> Physicians in our country should carefully pay attention to respiratory tract infections and pneumonia, particularly in patients with a positive family history. Further investigations are required for detection of new genes and pathways resulting in HIGM phenotype.
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- Neehus, AL, et al.
(author)
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Impaired respiratory burst contributes to infections in PKCδ-deficient patients
- 2021
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In: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 218:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Patients with autosomal recessive protein kinase C δ (PKCδ) deficiency suffer from childhood-onset autoimmunity, including systemic lupus erythematosus. They also suffer from recurrent infections that overlap with those seen in patients with chronic granulomatous disease (CGD), a disease caused by defects of the phagocyte NADPH oxidase and a lack of reactive oxygen species (ROS) production. We studied an international cohort of 17 PKCδ-deficient patients and found that their EBV-B cells and monocyte-derived phagocytes produced only small amounts of ROS and did not phosphorylate p40phox normally after PMA or opsonized Staphylococcus aureus stimulation. Moreover, the patients’ circulating phagocytes displayed abnormally low levels of ROS production and markedly reduced neutrophil extracellular trap formation, altogether suggesting a role for PKCδ in activation of the NADPH oxidase complex. Our findings thus show that patients with PKCδ deficiency have impaired NADPH oxidase activity in various myeloid subsets, which may contribute to their CGD-like infectious phenotype.
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- Alisic, E., et al.
(author)
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The Role of an Assistant Nurse in Implementing the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist: Perception and Perspectives
- 2023
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In: Cureus Journal of Medical Science. - 2168-8184. ; 15:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist is a tool developed by the WHO to promote safer surgical practices and reduce the incidence of surgical errors and complications. This study aims to describe the role of assistant nurses in the implementation of this checklist by surgical teams. Materials and methods This descriptive study utilized a questionnaire-based survey conducted between September 2018 and March 2019 among 196 healthcare professionals at two surgical units in a university hospital in Sweden. The questionnaire covered demographic information such as age, gender, and occupation, as well as details about their workplace, experience, education/training on using the WHO checklist, the adaptation of the checklist to their department, their responsibilities in implementing and using the checklist, the frequency of use in emergency situations, and the impact on patient safety. Results The results of the study showed that assistant nurses, despite having the lowest level of education among healthcare professionals, were highly trusted and valued by other members of the surgical team. Most healthcare professionals were unsure who was responsible for using the WHO checklist but believed it was the assistant nurse's responsibility to ensure its implementation. Assistant nurses reported little to no training on using the checklist but noted that it had been adapted to the department's needs. Almost half (48.8%) of assistant nurses believed that the checklist was often used in emergency surgery, and most believed that it improved patient safety. Conclusions Improved understanding of the significance of assistant nurses in implementing the WHO Surgical Safety Checklist may enhance adherence to the checklist and potentially improve patient safety, as they were the most valued and trusted healthcare professionals in the surgical team according to the study's findings.
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