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| 2. |
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- 2019
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 3. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 5. |
- Kehoe, Laura, et al.
(author)
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Make EU trade with Brazil sustainable
- 2019
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 364:6438, s. 341-
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 6. |
- Peterson, Robin L, et al.
(author)
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Literacy acquisition influences children's rapid automatized naming
- 2018
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In: Developmental Science. - : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 1363-755X .- 1467-7687. ; 21:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Previous research has established that learning to read improves children's performance on reading‐related phonological tasks, including phoneme awareness (PA) and nonword repetition. Few studies have investigated whether literacy acquisition also promotes children's rapid automatized naming (RAN). We tested the hypothesis that literacy acquisition should influence RAN in an international, longitudinal population sample of twins. Cross‐lagged path models evaluated the relationships among literacy, PA, and RAN across four time points from pre‐kindergarten through grade 4. Consistent with previous research, literacy showed bidirectional relationships with reading‐related oral language skills. We found novel evidence for an effect of earlier literacy on later RAN, which was most evident in children at early phases of literacy development. In contrast, the influence of earlier RAN on later literacy was predominant among older children. These findings imply that the association between these two related skills is moderated by development. Implications for models of reading development and for dyslexia research are discussed.
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| 7. |
- Regnéll, Carl, et al.
(author)
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Ice-dammed lakes and deglaciation history of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet in central Jämtland, Sweden
- 2023
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 314
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Extensive glacial lakes dammed in the Scandinavian Mountains during the retreat of the last Scandinavian Ice Sheet were first hypothesised over a century ago. Here, using high-resolution LiDAR, we report >4500 relict shorelines, deltas and palaeo-channels related to ice-dammed lakes over a -30 000 km2 area of central Jämtland, west-central Sweden. Shorelines occur as flights on the valley sides, a consequence of sequential lowering of palaeo-lake levels during ice margin retreat and lower threshold outlets becoming ice-free. Based on the extent and elevation of shorelines, we identify requisite lake-damming ice-margin positions and lake drainage outlets, and we reconstruct the coupled evolution of ice-dammed lakes and the retreating ice margin. Beginning as a series of smaller ice-dammed lakes along the Swedish-Norwegian border, draining westward across the present-day water divide and into the Atlantic Ocean, the lakes successively coalesced during eastward ice margin retreat to form water bodies covering 1000s of km2 with 10s of km-long calving margins. Ultimately, the lake system coalesced into a single lake: the Central Jämtland Ice Lake, which exceeded 3500 km2 in area and 360 km3 in volume. Eventually, the damming ice-margin split in two, resulting in a large (-200 km2) catastrophic glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that reversed the drainage of the entire lake system from the west to an eastern outlet draining to the Baltic basin. We present new radiocarbon ages for one lake drainage event prior to the eastward outburst flood and, together with previously published deglacial ages and local varve records, we suggest that the region was possibly deglaciated within just 350 years, sometime between 10.5 and 9.2 cal ka BP. We tentatively correlate the penultimate drainage of the Central Jämtland Ice Lake to the zero-varve of the Swedish Time Scale, a drainage varve at Döviken, eastern Jämtland, raising the tantalising prospect of using the evolution of the ice-dammed lake system to tie the varve-based Swedish Time Scale to the radiocarbon timescale with a new programme of radiocarbon dating in central Jämtland.
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| 8. |
- Regnéll, Joachim, 1956-, et al.
(author)
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Ice-dammed lakes of Scandinavia : A key to the pattern and chronology of the final decay of the Scandinavian ice-sheet
- 2021
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Here we present the use of ice-dammed lake-related landforms and sediments for reconstructing the final phases of decay of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet.In the late stages of the deglaciation, extensive glacial lakes were dammed between the easterly retreating Scandinavian Ice Sheet and the water divide within the mountains to the west. Using high-resolution airborne LiDAR-data, shorelines and other landforms relating to these ice-dammed lakes have now been discovered over larger areas and in greater numbers than previously known, opening a treasure trove of palaeoglaciological information of vast potential for reconstructing the final decay phase of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet.The geomorphological imprint of the ice-dammed lakes is of particular importance in northern Scandinavia, as geological evidence pertaining unequivocally to the final ice sheet decay is sparse. Its interpretation is complicated since the ice sheet is thought to have mainly been cold-based during final decay, inhibiting sliding at the ice-bed interface and limiting the construction (or destruction) of landforms indicative of the changing shape and flow of the ice sheet. Furthermore, dated sediment sequences marking the onset of ice-free conditions are woefully few in northern Scandinavia. Likewise, available cosmogenic nuclide exposure dates provide high age uncertainty and inadequate geographical cover, leaving the timing and location of final ice sheet decay still elusive.Using examples from northern and central Scandinavia, we show that ice-dammed lakes are an intricate part of the deglacial dynamics and show how mapping and dating them offer a solution to these problems. Even with a frozen ice-bed interface, surface melting and meltwater drainage creates landforms unequivocally associated with ice sheet decay: drainage channels, dammed lake shorelines, and deltas. Meltwater drainage routes and ice-dammed lakes are therefore powerful tools for reconstructing a disintegrating ice sheet; a ponded lake reveals the location of its requisite ice-dam, and drainage pathways reveal ice-free conditions. A dated sequence of ice-dammed lake sediments can therefore constrain both ice and lake coverage at that time for a much larger area than the dated site itself. Furthermore, the extent of different ice-dammed lake stages and their requisite ice-damming positions enables the pattern of ice margin change to be traced, and the relative age of ice-marginal positions determined using cross-cutting relations. The shorelines’ present-day tilts are also used to inform patterns and magnitudes of postglacial isostatic uplift, information otherwise lacking from the continental interior but of particular importance for modelling former ice sheet volumes and understanding the crustal response to ice sheet loading. Reconstructing the extents and timing of ice-dammed lakes and the study of related landforms and deposits can therefore greatly improve our understanding of the final decay of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and provide potential analogues for the predicted future behaviours of modern ice sheets.
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| 9. |
- Regnéll, Joachim, et al.
(author)
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Ice-dammed lakes of Scandinavia : A key to the pattern and chronology of the final decay of the Scandinavian ice-sheet
- 2021
-
Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Here we present the use of ice-dammed lake-related landforms and sediments for reconstructing the final phases of decay of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. In the late stages of the deglaciation, extensive glacial lakes were dammed between the easterly retreating Scandinavian Ice Sheet and the water divide within the mountains to the west. Using high-resolution airborne LiDAR-data, shorelines and other landforms relating to these ice-dammed lakes have now been discovered over larger areas and in greater numbers than previously known, opening a treasure trove of palaeoglaciological information of vast potential for reconstructing the final decay phase of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet. The geomorphological imprint of the ice-dammed lakes is of particular importance in northern Scandinavia, as geological evidence pertaining unequivocally to the final ice sheet decay is sparse. Its interpretation is complicated since the ice sheet is thought to have mainly been cold-based during final decay, inhibiting sliding at the ice-bed interface and limiting the construction (or destruction) of landforms indicative of the changing shape and flow of the ice sheet. Furthermore, dated sediment sequences marking the onset of ice-free conditions are woefully few in northern Scandinavia. Likewise, available cosmogenic nuclide exposure dates provide high age uncertainty and inadequate geographical cover, leaving the timing and location of final ice sheet decay still elusive. Using examples from northern and central Scandinavia, we show that ice-dammed lakes are an intricate part of the deglacial dynamics and show how mapping and dating them offer a solution to these problems. Even with a frozen ice-bed interface, surface melting and meltwater drainage creates landforms unequivocally associated with ice sheet decay: drainage channels, dammed lake shorelines, and deltas. Meltwater drainage routes and ice-dammed lakes are therefore powerful tools for reconstructing a disintegrating ice sheet; a ponded lake reveals the location of its requisite ice-dam, and drainage pathways reveal ice-free conditions. A dated sequence of ice-dammed lake sediments can therefore constrain both ice and lake coverage at that time for a much larger area than the dated site itself. Furthermore, the extent of different ice-dammed lake stages and their requisite ice-damming positions enables the pattern of ice margin change to be traced, and the relative age of ice-marginal positions determined using cross-cutting relations. The shorelines’ present-day tilts are also used to inform patterns and magnitudes of postglacial isostatic uplift, information otherwise lacking from the continental interior but of particular importance for modelling former ice sheet volumes and understanding the crustal response to ice sheet loading. Reconstructing the extents and timing of ice-dammed lakes and the study of related landforms and deposits can therefore greatly improve our understanding of the final decay of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and provide potential analogues for the predictedfuture behaviours of modern ice sheets.
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