| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Danaei, Goodarz, et al.
(author)
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Iran in transition
- 2019
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1984-2005
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Being the second-largest country in the Middle East, Iran has a long history of civilisation during which several dynasties have been overthrown and established and health-related structures have been reorganised. Iran has had the replacement of traditional practices with modern medical treatments, emergence of multiple pioneer scientists and physicians with great contributions to the advancement of science, environmental and ecological changes in addition to large-scale natural disasters, epidemics of multiple communicable diseases, and the shift towards non-communicable diseases in recent decades. Given the lessons learnt from political instabilities in the past centuries and the approaches undertaken to overcome health challenges at the time, Iran has emerged as it is today. Iran is now a country with a population exceeding 80 million, mainly inhabiting urban regions, and has an increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, diabetes, malignancies, mental disorders, substance abuse, and road injuries.
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| 4. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 6. |
- Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, et al.
(author)
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Trend of Socio-Demographic Index and Mortality Estimates in Iran and its Neighbors, 1990-2015 : Findings of the Global Burden of Diseases 2015 Study
- 2017
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In: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 20:7, s. 419-428
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global burden of disease and injuries study (GBD 2015) reports expected measures for years of life lost (YLL) based on socio-demographic index (SDI) of countries, as well as the observed measures. In this extended GBD 2015 report, we reviewed total and cause-specific deaths and YLL for Iran and all its neighboring countries between 1990 and 2015.METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2015 database. Observed YLL measures were calculated by multiplying the number of deaths by standard life expectancy at each age. SDI was a composite index, calculated based on income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. The GBD world population was used for age standardization.RESULTS: All-ages crude death rate in Iran reduced from 665.6 per 100,000 population (95% uncertainty interval: 599.3-731.6) in 1990 to 487.2 (414.9-566.1) in 2015. The ratio of observed to expected YLL (O/E ratio) for all-causes ranged between 0.54 (Turkey) and 1.95 (Russia) in 2015. For Iran, the all-causes O/E ratio was less than 1 in all years (1990-2015), except 2003. However, cause-specific O/E ratio was more than 1 for some causes, including the top leading causes of YLL (ischemic heart disease, road injuries, and cerebrovascular disorders). Ischemic heart disease was the first or second cause of YLL in all comparator countries except Afghanistan.CONCLUSION: The leading YLL causes with high O/E ratios should be prioritized in public health efforts. In addition to research evidence, countries with low O/E ratios should be scrutinized to find feasible innovative interventions.
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| 7. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 8. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 9. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 10. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, et al.
(author)
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The Burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Iran and 15 Surrounding Countries : 1990-2016
- 2018
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In: Archives of Iranian Medicine. - 1029-2977 .- 1735-3947. ; 21:12, s. 556-565
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study provides estimates of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), years of life lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to 249 causes of death, 315 diseases and injuries, and 79 behavioral, environmental, occupational, and metabolic risk factors in 195 countries, territories, and regions by sex and 20 age categories in 195 countries and regions since 1990. In this study, we aimed to present the burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) in Iran and 15 surrounding countries in 1990-2016.METHODS: The standard Cause of Death Ensemble modeling (CODEm) is used to estimate deaths due to all causes of injury by age, sex, country and year. A range of 27 causes is used for estimating non-fatal health outcomes based on inpatient and outpatient datasets using DisMod-MR 2.0. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) estimate quantify the total burden of years lost due to premature death or disability and was computed by summing the fatal burden and non-fatal burden associated with a cause (i.e., YLL+YLD).RESULTS: In 2016, age-standardized transport injuries in Iran accounted for 35.6 (UI: 29.64-43.44) deaths per 100000 compared to 60.8 (UI: 51.04-72.49) in 1990. Transport injury became the fourth leading cause of death in Iran in 2016, up from the 5th leading cause of death in 1990. The burden of RTIs was mainly caused by motor vehicles and motorcycles and mostly affected the economically productive age groups (15-49), males and children, especially those at school age. Afghanistan with 59.14 deaths (52.09-66.8) and UAE with 53.71 deaths (36.59-72.77) had the largest transport injury death rates per 100000. From 1990 to 2016, Iran had -2.06 annual percent change in transport death rates. The lowest annual percent change is reported for Turkmenistan at -3.43. While Pakistan, UAE and Qatar had the highest annual percent change in transport injury. Across all countries, the observed-to-expected ratios for transport injury death rates varied considerably in 2016.The UAE had the largest age-standardized ratios of observed-to-expected rate (2.93), followed by Oman (2.39), Saudi Arabia (2.23), Afghanistan (2.04) and Iran (1.95).CONCLUSIONS: RTIs continue to be a public health burden in Iran and its neighboring countries, even though, there is evidence for decline in RTIs across all countries except Pakistan. The most frequent sub-causes of death and injury are the motor vehicle, motorcycle, and pedestrian injuries. The most vulnerable road users are children and young adults.
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| 13. |
- Canoy, Dexter, et al.
(author)
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Antihypertensive drug effects on long-term blood pressure : an individual-level data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials
- 2022
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In: Heart. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1355-6037 .- 1468-201X. ; 108:16, s. 1281-1289
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Evidence from randomised trials of pharmacological treatments on long-term blood pressure (BP) reduction is limited. We investigated the antihypertensive drug effects on BP over time and across different participant characteristics.Methods: We conducted an individual patient-level data meta-analysis of 52 large-scale randomised clinical trials in the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration using mixed models to examine treatment effects on BP over 4 years of mean follow-up.Results: There were 363 684 participants (42% women), with baseline mean age=65 years and mean systolic/diastolic BP=152/87 mm Hg, and among whom 19% were current smokers, 49% had cardiovascular disease, 28% had diabetes and 69% were taking antihypertensive treatment at baseline. Drugs were effective in lowering BP showing maximal effect after 12 months and gradually attenuating towards later years. Based on measures taken >= 12 months postrandomisation, mean systolic/diastolic BP difference (95% CI) between more and less intense BP-lowering treatment was -11.1 (-11.3 to -10.8)/-5.6 (-5.7 to -5.4) mm Hg; between active treatment and placebo was -5.1 (-5.3 to -5.0)/-2.3 (-2.4 to -2.2) mm Hg; and between active and control arms for drug comparison trials was -1.4 (-1.5 to -1.3)/-0.6 (-0.7 to -0.6) mm Hg. BP reductions were observed across different baseline BP values and ages, and by sex, history of cardiovascular disease and diabetes and prior antihypertensive treatment use.Conclusion: These findings suggest that BP-lowering pharmacotherapy is effective in lowering BP, up to 4 years on average, in people with different characteristics. Appropriate treatment strategies are needed to sustain substantive long-term BP reductions.
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| 14. |
- Copland, Emma, et al.
(author)
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Antihypertensive treatment and risk of cancer : an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2021
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In: The Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier. - 1470-2045 .- 1474-5488. ; 22:4, s. 558-570
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Findings 33 trials met the inclusion criteria, and included 260 447 participants with 15 012 cancer events. Median follow-up of included participants was 4?2 years (IQR 3?0?5?0). In the individual participant data meta-analysis comparing each drug class with all other comparators, no associations were identified between any antihypertensive drug class and risk of any cancer (HR 0?99 [95% CI 0?95?1?04] for ACEIs; 0?96 [0?92?1?01] for ARBs; 0?98 [0?89?1?07] for 13 blockers; 1?01 [0?95?1?07] for thiazides), with the exception of calcium channel blockers (1?06 [1?01?1?11]). In the network meta-analysis comparing drug classes against placebo, we found no excess cancer risk with any drug class (HR 1?00 [95% CI 0?93?1?09] for ACEIs; 0?99 [0?92?1?06] for ARBs; 0?99 [0?89?1?11] for 13 blockers; 1?04 [0?96?1?13] for calcium channel blockers; 1?00 [0?90?1?10] for thiazides). Summary Background Some studies have suggested a link between antihypertensive medication and cancer, but the evidence is so far inconclusive. Thus, we aimed to investigate this association in a large individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised clinical trials. Methods We searched PubMed, MEDLINE, The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and ClinicalTrials.gov from Jan 1, 1966, to Sept 1, 2019, to identify potentially eligible randomised controlled trials. Eligible studies were randomised controlled trials comparing one blood pressure lowering drug class with a placebo, inactive control, or other blood pressure lowering drug. We also required that trials had at least 1000 participant years of follow-up in each treatment group. Trials without cancer event information were excluded. We requested individual participant data from the authors of eligible trials. We pooled individual participant-level data from eligible trials and assessed the effects of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs), 13 blockers, calcium channel blockers, and thiazide diuretics on cancer risk in one-stage individual participant data and network meta-analyses. Cause-specific fixed-effects Cox regression models, stratified by trial, were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs). The primary outcome was any cancer event, defined as the first occurrence of any cancer diagnosed after randomisation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018099283). Findings 33 trials met the inclusion criteria, and included 260 447 participants with 15 012 cancer events. Median follow-up of included participants was 4 & middot;2 years (IQR 3 & middot;0 & ndash;5 & middot;0). In the individual participant data meta-analysis comparing each drug class with all other comparators, no associations were identified between any antihypertensive drug class and risk of any cancer (HR 0 & middot;99 [95% CI 0 & middot;95 & ndash;1 & middot;04] for ACEIs; 0 & middot;96 [0 & middot;92 & ndash;1 & middot;01] for ARBs; 0 & middot;98 [0 & middot;89 & ndash;1 & middot;07] for 13 blockers; 1 & middot;01 [0 & middot;95 & ndash;1 & middot;07] for thiazides), with the exception of calcium channel blockers (1 & middot;06 [1 & middot;01 & ndash;1 & middot;11]). In the network meta-analysis comparing drug classes against placebo, we found no excess cancer risk with any drug class (HR 1 & middot;00 [95% CI 0 & middot;93 & ndash;1 & middot;09] for ACEIs; 0 & middot;99 [0 & middot;92 & ndash;1 & middot;06] for ARBs; 0 & middot;99 [0 & middot;89 & ndash;1 & middot;11] for 13 blockers; 1 & middot;04 [0 & middot;96 & ndash;1 & middot;13] for calcium channel blockers; 1 & middot;00 [0 & middot;90 & ndash;1 & middot;10] for thiazides). Interpretation We found no consistent evidence that antihypertensive medication use had any effect on cancer risk. Although such findings are reassuring, evidence for some comparisons was insufficient to entirely rule out excess risk, in particular for calcium channel blockers.
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| 15. |
- Halliday, Alison, et al.
(author)
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10-year stroke prevention after successful carotid endarterectomy for asymptomatic stenosis (ACST-1) : A multicentre randomised trial
- 2010
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 376:9746, s. 1074-1084
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background If carotid artery narrowing remains asymptomatic (ie, has caused no recent stroke or other neurological symptoms), successful carotid endarterectomy (CEA) reduces stroke incidence for some years. We assessed the long-term effects of successful CEA. Methods Between 1993 and 2003, 3120 asymptomatic patients from 126 centres in 30 countries were allocated equally, by blinded minimised randomisation, to immediate CEA (median delay 1 month, IQR 0·3-2·5) or to indefinite deferral of any carotid procedure, and were followed up until death or for a median among survivors of 9 years (IQR 6-11). The primary outcomes were perioperative mortality and morbidity (death or stroke within 30 days) and non-perioperative stroke. Kaplan-Meier percentages and logrank p values are from intention-to-treat analyses. This study is registered, number ISRCTN26156392. Findings 1560 patients were allocated immediate CEA versus 1560 allocated deferral of any carotid procedure. The proportions operated on while still asymptomatic were 89·7 versus 4·8 at 1 year (and 92·1 vs 16·5 at 5 years). Perioperative risk of stroke or death within 30 days was 3·0 (95 CI 2·4-3·9; 26 non-disabling strokes plus 34 disabling or fatal perioperative events in 1979 CEAs). Excluding perioperative events and non-stroke mortality, stroke risks (immediate vs deferred CEA) were 4·1 versus 10·0 at 5 years (gain 5·9, 95 CI 4·0-7·8) and 10·8 versus 16·9 at 10 years (gain 6·1, 2·7-9·4); ratio of stroke incidence rates 0·54, 95 CI 0·43-0·68, p<0·0001. 62 versus 104 had a disabling or fatal stroke, and 37 versus 84 others had a non-disabling stroke. Combining perioperative events and strokes, net risks were 6·9 versus 10·9 at 5 years (gain 4·1, 2·0-6·2) and 13·4 versus 17·9 at 10 years (gain 4·6, 1·2-7·9). Medication was similar in both groups; throughout the study, most were on antithrombotic and antihypertensive therapy. Net benefits were significant both for those on lipid-lowering therapy and for those not, and both for men and for women up to 75 years of age at entry (although not for older patients). Interpretation Successful CEA for asymptomatic patients younger than 75 years of age reduces 10-year stroke risks. Half this reduction is in disabling or fatal strokes. Net benefit in future patients will depend on their risks from unoperated carotid lesions (which will be reduced by medication), on future surgical risks (which might differ from those in trials), and on whether life expectancy exceeds 10 years. Funding UK Medical Research Council, BUPA Foundation, Stroke Association.
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| 16. |
- Karmali, Kunal N., et al.
(author)
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Blood pressure-lowering treatment strategies based on cardiovascular risk versus blood pressure : A meta-analysis of individual participant data
- 2018
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In: PLoS Medicine. - : PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 15:3
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Clinical practice guidelines have traditionally recommended blood pressure treatment based primarily on blood pressure thresholds. In contrast, using predicted cardiovascular risk has been advocated as a more effective strategy to guide treatment decisions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention. We aimed to compare outcomes from a blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk with one based on systolic blood pressure (SBP) level.Methods and findings: We used individual participant data from the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC) from 1995 to 2013. Trials randomly assigned participants to either blood pressure-lowering drugs versus placebo or more intensive versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. We estimated 5-y risk of CVD events using a multivariable Weibull model previously developed in this dataset. We compared the two strategies at specific SBP thresholds and across the spectrum of risk and blood pressure levels studied in BPLTTC trials. The primary outcome was number of CVD events avoided per persons treated. We included data from 11 trials (47,872 participants). During a median of 4.0 y of follow-up, 3,566 participants (7.5%) experienced a major cardiovascular event. Areas under the curve comparing the two treatment strategies throughout the range of possible thresholds for CVD risk and SBP demonstrated that, on average, a greater number of CVD events would be avoided for a given number of persons treated with the CVD risk strategy compared with the SBP strategy (area under the curve 0.71 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.72] for the CVD risk strategy versus 0.54 [95% CI 0.53-0.55] for the SBP strategy). Compared with treating everyone with SBP >= 150 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 29% (95% CI 26%-31%) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 16% (95% CI 14%-18%) more events for the same number of persons treated. Compared with treating everyone with SBP >= 140 mmHg, a CVD risk strategy would require treatment of 3.8% (95% CI 12.5% fewer to 7.2% more) fewer persons to prevent the same number of events or would prevent 3.1% (95% CI 1.5%-5.0%) more events for the same number of persons treated, although the former estimate was not statistically significant. In subgroup analyses, the CVD risk strategy did not appear to be more beneficial than the SBP strategy in patients with diabetes mellitus or established CVD.Conclusions: A blood pressure-lowering treatment strategy based on predicted cardiovascular risk is more effective than one based on blood pressure levels alone across a range of thresholds. These results support using cardiovascular risk assessment to guide blood pressure treatment decision-making in moderate- to high-risk individuals, particularly for primary prevention.
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| 17. |
- McGale, Paul, et al.
(author)
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Incidence of heart disease in 35,000 women treated with radiotherapy for breast cancer in Denmark and Sweden
- 2011
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In: Radiotherapy and Oncology. - Amsterdam : Elsevier. - 0167-8140 .- 1879-0887. ; 100:2, s. 167-175
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose: To study incidence of radiation-related heart disease in a large population of breast cancer patients followed for up to 30 years. Material and methods: 72,134 women diagnosed with breast cancer in Denmark or Sweden during 1976-2006 and followed prospectively. Radiation-related risk was studied by comparing women with left-sided and right-sided tumours. Results: 34,825 women (48%) received radiotherapy. Among unirradiated women tumour laterality had little relevance to heart disease. Among irradiated women mean dose to the whole heart was 6.3 Gy for left-sided tumours and 2.7 Gy for right-sided tumours. Mortality was similar in irradiated women with left-sided and right-sided tumours, but incidence ratios, left-sided versus right-sided, were raised: acute myocardial infarction 1.22 (95% CI 1.06-1.42), angina 1.25 (1.05-1.49), pericarditis 1.61 (1.06-2.43), valvular heart disease 1.54 (1.11-2.13). Incidence ratios for all heart disease were as high for women irradiated since 1990 (1.09 [1.00-1.19]) as for women irradiated during 1976-1989 (1.08 [0.99-1.17]), and were higher for women diagnosed with ischaemic heart disease prior to breast cancer than for other women (1.58 [1.19-2.10] versus 1.08 [1.01-1.15], p for difference = 0.01). Conclusions: Breast cancer radiotherapy has, at least until recently, increased the risk of developing ischaemic heart disease, pericarditis and valvular disease. Women with ischaemic heart disease before breast cancer diagnosis may have incurred higher risks than others. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. Radiotherapy and Oncology 100 (2011) 167-175
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| 18. |
- Nazarzadeh, Milad, et al.
(author)
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Blood pressure lowering and risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes : an individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2021
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10313, s. 1803-1810
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundBlood pressure lowering is an established strategy for preventing microvascular and macrovascular complications of diabetes, but its role in the prevention of diabetes itself is unclear. We aimed to examine this question using individual participant data from major randomised controlled trials.MethodsWe performed a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis, in which data were pooled to investigate the effect of blood pressure lowering per se on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. An individual participant data network meta-analysis was used to investigate the differential effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs on the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Overall, data from 22 studies conducted between 1973 and 2008, were obtained by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (Oxford University, Oxford, UK). We included all primary and secondary prevention trials that used a specific class or classes of antihypertensive drugs versus placebo or other classes of blood pressure lowering medications that had at least 1000 persons-years of followup in each randomly allocated arm. Participants with a known diagnosis of diabetes at baseline and trials conducted in patients with prevalent diabetes were excluded. For the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis we used stratified Cox proportional hazards model and for the individual participant data network meta-analysis we used logistic regression models to calculate the relative risk (RR) for drug class comparisons.Findings145 939 participants (88 500 [60.6%] men and 57 429 [39.4%] women) from 19 randomised controlled trials were included in the one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. 22 trials were included in the individual participant data network meta-analysis. After a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR 2.0), 9883 participants were diagnosed with new-onset type 2 diabetes. Systolic blood pressure reduction by 5 mm Hg reduced the risk of type 2 diabetes across all trials by 11% (hazard ratio 0.89 [95% CI 0.84-0.95]). Investigation of the effects of five major classes of antihypertensive drugs showed that in comparison to placebo, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (RR 0.84 [95% 0.76-0.93]) and angiotensin II receptor blockers (RR 0.84 [0.76-0.92]) reduced the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes; however, the use of beta blockers (RR 1.48 [1.27-1.72]) and thiazide diuretics (RR 1.20 [1.07-1.35]) increased this risk, and no material effect was found for calcium channel blockers (RR 1.02 [0.92-1.13]).InterpretationBlood pressure lowering is an effective strategy for the prevention of new-onset type 2 diabetes. Established pharmacological interventions, however, have qualitatively and quantitively different effects on diabetes, likely due to their differing off-target effects, with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers having the most favourable outcomes. This evidence supports the indication for selected classes of antihypertensive drugs for the prevention of diabetes, which could further refine the selection of drug choice according to an individual's clinical risk of diabetes.
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| 19. |
- Pinho-Gomes, Ana-Catarina, et al.
(author)
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Blood pressure-lowering treatment for the prevention of cardiovascular events in patients with atrial fibrillation : An individual participant data meta-analysis
- 2021
-
In: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 18:6
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Randomised evidence on the efficacy of blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment to reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the effects of BP-lowering drugs in patients with and without AF at baseline. Methods and findings The study was based on the resource provided by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC), in which individual participant data (IPD) were extracted from trials with over 1,000 patient-years of follow-up in each arm, and that had randomly assigned patients to different classes of BP-lowering drugs, BP-lowering drugs versus placebo, or more versus less intensive BP-lowering regimens. For this study, only trials that had collected information on AF status at baseline were included. The effects of BP-lowering treatment on a composite endpoint of major cardiovascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease or heart failure) according to AF status at baseline were estimated using fixed-effect one-stage IPD meta-analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models stratified by trial. Furthermore, to assess whether the associations between the intensity of BP reduction and cardiovascular outcomes are similar in those with and without AF at baseline, we used a meta-regression. From the full BPLTTC database, 28 trials (145,653 participants) were excluded because AF status at baseline was uncertain or unavailable. A total of 22 trials were included with 188,570 patients, of whom 13,266 (7%) had AF at baseline. Risk of bias assessment showed that 20 trials were at low risk of bias and 2 trials at moderate risk. Meta-regression showed that relative risk reductions were proportional to trial-level intensity of BP lowering in patients with and without AF at baseline. Over 4.5 years of median follow-up, a 5-mm Hg systolic BP (SBP) reduction lowered the risk of major cardiovascular events both in patients with AF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 to 1.00) and in patients without AF at baseline (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.93), with no difference between subgroups. There was no evidence for heterogeneity of treatment effects by baseline SBP or drug class in patients with AF at baseline. The findings of this study need to be interpreted in light of its potential limitations, such as the limited number of trials, limitation in ascertaining AF cases due to the nature of the arrhythmia and measuring BP in patients with AF. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, we found that BP-lowering treatment reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events similarly in individuals with and without AF. Pharmacological BP lowering for prevention of cardiovascular events should be recommended in patients with AF. Author summary Why was this study done? Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia across the world and is strongly associated with future vascular disease, particularly stroke. Blood pressure (BP) lowering is an established strategy for prevention of vascular disease, but whether patients with AF benefit similarly from pharmacological BP reduction is not well understood. What did the researchers do and find? We compared the preventive effect of BP-lowering treatment on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with and without AF at baseline. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis using published and unpublished data from large randomised clinical trials (22 trials involving 188,570 patients). We showed that BP-lowering treatment reduced the risk of a major cardiovascular events with no evidence that effects differed according to the presence or absence of AF at baseline. The relative risk reductions were proportional to the intensity of BP reduction in individuals with and without AF. In individuals with AF, the relative risk reduction was comparable irrespective of whether baseline systolic BP was under or over the conventional treatment threshold of 140 mm Hg. What do these findings mean? BP-lowering treatment reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events in patients with AF to a similar extent to that of patients without AF. Pharmacological BP-lowering treatment for prevention of cardiovascular events should be recommended as part of care for patients with AF.
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| 20. |
- Salam, Abdul, et al.
(author)
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Effects of blood pressure lowering on cardiovascular events, in the context of regression to the mean : a systematic review of randomized trials
- 2019
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In: Journal of Hypertension. - : Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. - 0263-6352 .- 1473-5598. ; 37:1, s. 16-23
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: To assess the clinical relevance of regression to the mean for clinical trials and clinical practice. Methods: MEDLINE was searched until February 2018 for randomized trials of BP lowering with over 1000 patient-years follow-up per group. We estimated baseline mean BP, follow-up mean (usual) BP amongst patients grouped by 10 mmHg strata of baseline BP, and assessed effects of BP lowering on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke according to these BP levels. Results: Eighty-six trials (349 488 participants), with mean follow-up of 3.7 years, were included. Most mean BP change was because of regression to the mean rather than treatment. At high baseline BP levels, even after rigorous hypertension diagnosis, downwards regression to the mean caused much of the fall in BP. At low baseline BP levels, upwards regression to the mean increased BP levels, even in treatment groups. Overall, a BP reduction of 6/3 mmHg lowered CHD by 14% (95% CI 11-17%) and stroke by 18% (15-22%), and these treatment effects occurred at follow-up BP levels much closer to the mean than baseline BP levels. In particular, more evidence was available in the SBP 130-139 mmHg range than any other range. Benefits were apparent in numerous high-risk patient groups with baseline mean SBP less than 140 mmHg. Conclusion: Clinical practice should focus less on pretreatment BP levels, which rarely predict future untreated BP levels or rule out capacity to benefit from BP lowering in high cardiovascular risk patients. Instead, focus should be on prompt, empirical treatment to maintain lower BP for those with high BP and/or high risk.
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| 21. |
- Sundström, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Blood pressure-lowering treatment based on cardiovascular risk : a meta-analysis of individual patient data
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9943, s. 591-598
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundWe aimed to investigate whether the benefits of blood pressure-lowering drugs are proportional to baseline cardiovascular risk, to establish whether absolute risk could be used to inform treatment decisions for blood pressure-lowering therapy, as is recommended for lipid-lowering therapy. MethodsThis meta-analysis included individual participant data from trials that randomly assigned patients to either blood pressure-lowering drugs or placebo, or to more intensive or less intensive blood pressure-lowering regimens. The primary outcome was total major cardiovascular events, consisting of stroke, heart attack, heart failure, or cardiovascular death. Participants were separated into four categories of baseline 5-year major cardiovascular risk using a risk prediction equation developed from the placebo groups of the included trials (<11%, 11-15%, 15-21%, >21%).Findings11 trials and 26 randomised groups met the inclusion criteria, and included 67 475 individuals, of whom 51 917 had available data for the calculation of the risk equations. 4167 (8%) had a cardiovascular event during a median of 4.0 years (IQR 3.4-4.4) of follow-up. The mean estimated baseline levels of 5-year cardiovascular risk for each of the four risk groups were 6 0% (SD 2.0), 12.1% (1.5), 17.7% (1.7), and 26.8% (5.4). In each consecutive higher risk group, blood pressure-lowering treatment reduced the risk of cardiovascular events relatively by 18% (95% CI 7-27), 15% (4-25), 13% (2-22), and 15% (5-24), respectively (p=0.30 for trend). However, in absolute terms, treating 1000 patients in each group with blood pressure-lowering treatment for 5 years would prevent 14 (95% CI 8-21), 20 (8-31), 24 (8-40), and 38 (16-61) cardiovascular events, respectively (p=0.04 for trend). Interpretation Lowering blood pressure provides similar relative protection at all levels of baseline cardiovascular risk, but progressively greater absolute risk reductions as baseline risk increases. These results support the use of predicted baseline cardiovascular disease risk equations to inform blood pressure-lowering treatment decisions.
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| 22. |
- Sundström, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Effects of Blood Pressure Reduction in Mild Hypertension : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
- 2015
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In: Annals of Internal Medicine. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 162:3, s. 184-191
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Effects of blood pressure reduction in persons with grade 1 hypertension are unclear. Purpose: To investigate whether pharmacologic blood pressure reduction prevents cardiovascular events and deaths in persons with grade 1 hypertension. Data Sources: Trials included in the BPLTTC (Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration) and trials identified from a previous review and electronic database searches. Study Selection: Patients without cardiovascular disease with blood pressures in the grade 1 hypertension range (140 to 159/90 to 99 mm Hg) who were randomly assigned to an active (antihypertensive drug or more intensive regimen) or control (placebo or less intensive regimen) blood pressure-lowering regimen. Data Extraction: Individual-patient data from BPLTTC trials and aggregate data from other trials were extracted. Risk of bias was assessed for all trials. Data Synthesis: Individual-patient data involved 10 comparisons from trials where most patients had diabetes, and aggregate data involved 3 comparisons from trials of patients without diabetes. The average blood pressure reduction was about 3.6/2.4 mm Hg. Over 5 years, odds ratios were 0.86 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.01) for total cardiovascular events, 0.72 (CI, 0.55 to 0.94) for strokes, 0.91 (CI, 0.74 to 1.12) for coronary events, 0.80 (CI, 0.57 to 1.12) for heart failure, 0.75 (CI, 0.57 to 0.98) for cardiovascular deaths, and 0.78 (CI, 0.67 to 0.92) for total deaths. Results were similar in secondary analyses. Withdrawal from treatment due to adverse effects was more common in the active groups. Limitation: Blood pressure reductions and numbers of events were small. Conclusion: Blood pressure-lowering therapy is likely to prevent stroke and death in patients with uncomplicated grade 1 hypertension.
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