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- Pfaller, M.A., et al.
(author)
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Twelve years of fluconazole in clinical practice : Global-trends in species distribution and fluconazole susceptibility of bloodstream isolates of Candida
- 2004
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In: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier BV. - 1198-743X .- 1469-0691. ; 10:SUPPL. 1, s. 11-23
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We determined the species distribution and in-vitro susceptibility of 6082 bloodstream infection (BSI) isolates of Candida spp. collected from 250 medical centres in 32 nations over a 10-year period from 1992 through 2001. The species included 3401 C. albicans, 984 C. glabrata, 796 C. parapsilosis, 585 C. tropicalis, 153 C. krusei, 67 C. lusitaniae, 48 C. guilliermondii, 10 C. famata, 10 C. kefyr, six C. pelliculosa, five C. rugosa, four C. lipolytica, three C. dubliniensis, three C. inconspicua, two C. sake and one isolate each of C. lambica, C. norvegensis and C. zeylanoides. Minimum inhibitory concentration determinations were made using the National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards reference broth microdilution method. Variation in the rank order and frequency of the different species of Candida was observed over time and by geographic area. The proportion of BSI due to C. albicans and C. glabrata increased and C. parapsilosis decreased over time in Canada, the USA and Europe. C. glabrata was an infrequent cause of BSI in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. Very little variation in fluconazole susceptibility was observed among isolates of C. albicans, C. tropicalis and C. parapsilosis. These species accounted for 78% of all BSI and remained highly susceptible (91-100% susceptible) to fluconazole from 1992 to 2001 irrespective of geographic origin. The prevalence of fluconazole resistance among C. glabrata isolates was variable both over time and among the various countries and regions. Resistance to fluconazole among C. glabrata isolates was greatest in the USA and varied by US census region (range 0-23%). These observations are generally encouraging relative to the sustained usefulness of fluconazole as a systemically active antifungal agent for the treatment of candida BSI. © 2004 Copyright by the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.
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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Kahlmeter, G, et al.
(author)
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European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) Technical Notes on antimicrobial susceptibility testing
- 2006
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In: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier BV. - 1469-0691 .- 1198-743X. ; 12:6, s. 501-503
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The main objectives of the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) are to harmonise breakpoints for antimicrobial agents in Europe, and to act as the breakpoint committee for the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) during the registration of new antimicrobial agents. Detailed EUCAST procedures for harmonising and setting breakpoints for antimicrobial agents are available on the EUCAST website. Beginning with the current issue, a series of EUCAST Technical Notes will be published in CMI, based on the rationale documents produced by EUCAST for each of the antimicrobial agents studied, with the aim of highlighting important background information underlying decisions on breakpoints made by EUCAST.
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