| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 2. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
-
State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
|
|
| 3. |
- Maes, S.L., et al.
(författare)
-
Environmental drivers of increased ecosystem respiration in a warming tundra
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 629:8010, s. 105-113
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems are large reservoirs of organic carbon. Climate warming may stimulate ecosystem respiration and release carbon into the atmosphere. The magnitude and persistency of this stimulation and the environmental mechanisms that drive its variation remain uncertain. This hampers the accuracy of global land carbon–climate feedback projections. Here we synthesize 136 datasets from 56 open-top chamber in situ warming experiments located at 28 arctic and alpine tundra sites which have been running for less than 1 year up to 25 years. We show that a mean rise of 1.4 °C [confidence interval (CI) 0.9–2.0 °C] in air and 0.4 °C [CI 0.2–0.7 °C] in soil temperature results in an increase in growing season ecosystem respiration by 30% [CI 22–38%] (n = 136). Our findings indicate that the stimulation of ecosystem respiration was due to increases in both plant-related and microbial respiration (n = 9) and continued for at least 25 years (n = 136). The magnitude of the warming effects on respiration was driven by variation in warming-induced changes in local soil conditions, that is, changes in total nitrogen concentration and pH and by context-dependent spatial variation in these conditions, in particular total nitrogen concentration and the carbon:nitrogen ratio. Tundra sites with stronger nitrogen limitations and sites in which warming had stimulated plant and microbial nutrient turnover seemed particularly sensitive in their respiration response to warming. The results highlight the importance of local soil conditions and warming-induced changes therein for future climatic impacts on respiration.
|
|
| 4. |
- van Cappellen, W., et al.
(författare)
-
Apertif: Phased array feeds for the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope: System overview and performance characteristics
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 658
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We describe the APERture Tile In Focus (Apertif) system, a phased array feed (PAF) upgrade of the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope that transforms this telescope into a high-sensitivity, wide-field-of-view L-band imaging and transient survey instrument. Using novel PAF technology, up to 40 partially overlapping beams are formed on the sky simultaneously, significantly increasing the survey speed of the telescope. With this upgraded instrument, an imaging survey covering an area of 2300 deg2 is being performed that will deliver both continuum and spectral line datasets, of which the first data have been publicly released. In addition, a time domain transient and pulsar survey covering 15 000 deg2 is in progress. An overview of the Apertif science drivers, hardware, and software of the upgraded telescope is presented, along with its key performance characteristics.
|
|
| 5. |
- Natali, S. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
|
|
| 6. |
- Davies, G., et al.
(författare)
-
Genetic contributions to variation in general cognitive function : a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in the CHARGE consortium (N=53 949)
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 20:2, s. 183-192
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- General cognitive function is substantially heritable across the human life course from adolescence to old age. We investigated the genetic contribution to variation in this important, health-and well-being-related trait in middle-aged and older adults. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of 31 cohorts (N = 53 949) in which the participants had undertaken multiple, diverse cognitive tests. A general cognitive function phenotype was tested for, and created in each cohort by principal component analysis. We report 13 genome-wide significant single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations in three genomic regions, 6q16.1, 14q12 and 19q13.32 (best SNP and closest gene, respectively: rs10457441, P = 3.93 x 10(-9), MIR2113; rs17522122, P = 2.55 x 10(-8), AKAP6; rs10119, P = 5.67 x 10(-9), APOE/TOMM40). We report one gene-based significant association with the HMGN1 gene located on chromosome 21 (P = 1x10(-6)). These genes have previously been associated with neuropsychiatric phenotypes. Meta-analysis results are consistent with a polygenic model of inheritance. To estimate SNP-based heritability, the genome-wide complex trait analysis procedure was applied to two large cohorts, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (N = 6617) and the Health and Retirement Study (N = 5976). The proportion of phenotypic variation accounted for by all genotyped common SNPs was 29% (s.e. = 5%) and 28% (s.e. = 7%), respectively. Using polygenic prediction analysis, similar to 1.2% of the variance in general cognitive function was predicted in the Generation Scotland cohort (N = 5487; P = 1.5 x 10(-17)). In hypothesis-driven tests, there was significant association between general cognitive function and four genes previously associated with Alzheimer's disease: TOMM40, APOE, ABCG1 and MEF2C.
|
|
| 7. |
- Adams, E. A. K., et al.
(författare)
-
First release of Apertif imaging survey data
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Apertif is a phased-array feed system for the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope, providing forty instantaneous beams over 300 MHz of bandwidth. A dedicated survey program utilizing this upgrade started on 1 July 2019, with the last observations taken on 28 February 2022. The imaging survey component provides radio continuum, polarization, and spectral line data. Aims. Public release of data is critical for maximizing the legacy of a survey. Toward that end, we describe the release of data products from the first year of survey operations, through 30 June 2020. In particular, we focus on defining quality control metrics for the processed data products. Methods. The Apertif imaging pipeline, Apercal, automatically produces non-primary beam corrected continuum images, polarization images and cubes, and uncleaned spectral line and dirty beam cubes for each beam of an Apertif imaging observation. For this release, processed data products are considered on a beam-by-beam basis within an observation. We validate the continuum images by using metrics that identify deviations from Gaussian noise in the residual images. If the continuum image passes validation, we release all processed data products for a given beam. We apply further validation to the polarization and line data products and provide flags indicating the quality of those data products. Results. We release all raw observational data from the first year of survey observations, for a total of 221 observations of 160 independent target fields, covering approximately one thousand square degrees of sky. Images and cubes are released on a per beam basis, and 3374 beams (of 7640 considered) are released. The median noise in the continuum images is 41.4 uJy beam(-1), with a slightly lower median noise of 36.9 uJy beam(-1) in the Stokes V polarization image. The median angular resolution is 11.6 ''/sin delta. The median noise for all line cubes, with a spectral resolution of 36.6 kHz, is 1.6 mJy beam(-1), corresponding to a 3-sigma H i column density sensitivity of 1.8 x 10(20) atoms cm(-2) over 20 km s(-1) (for a median angular resolution of 24 '' x 15 ''). Line cubes at lower frequency have slightly higher noise values, consistent with the global RFI environment and overall Apertif system performance. We also provide primary beam images for each individual Apertif compound beam. The data are made accessible using a Virtual Observatory interface and can be queried using a variety of standard tools.
|
|
| 8. |
- Pihl, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Ten new insights in climate science 2020- A horizon scan
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Global Sustainability. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2059-4798.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Non-technical summary We summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding of Earth's sensitivity to carbon dioxide, finds that permafrost thaw could release more carbon emissions than expected and that the uptake of carbon in tropical ecosystems is weakening. Adverse impacts on human society include increasing water shortages and impacts on mental health. Options for solutions emerge from rethinking economic models, rights-based litigation, strengthened governance systems and a new social contract. The disruption caused by COVID-19 could be seized as an opportunity for positive change, directing economic stimulus towards sustainable investments. Technical summary A synthesis is made of ten fields within climate science where there have been significant advances since mid-2019, through an expert elicitation process with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) a better understanding of equilibrium climate sensitivity; (2) abrupt thaw as an accelerator of carbon release from permafrost; (3) changes to global and regional land carbon sinks; (4) impacts of climate change on water crises, including equity perspectives; (5) adverse effects on mental health from climate change; (6) immediate effects on climate of the COVID-19 pandemic and requirements for recovery packages to deliver on the Paris Agreement; (7) suggested long-term changes to governance and a social contract to address climate change, learning from the current pandemic, (8) updated positive cost-benefit ratio and new perspectives on the potential for green growth in the short- A nd long-term perspective; (9) urban electrification as a strategy to move towards low-carbon energy systems and (10) rights-based litigation as an increasingly important method to address climate change, with recent clarifications on the legal standing and representation of future generations. Social media summary Stronger permafrost thaw, COVID-19 effects and growing mental health impacts among highlights of latest climate science.
|
|
| 9. |
- Oostrum, L. C., et al.
(författare)
-
Repeating fast radio bursts with WSRT/Apertif
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 635
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Repeating fast radio bursts (FRBs) present excellent opportunities to identify FRB progenitors and host environments as well as to decipher the underlying emission mechanism. Detailed studies of repeating FRBs might also hold clues as to the origin of FRBs as a population. Aims. We aim to detect bursts from the first two repeating FRBs, FRB 121102 (R1) and FRB 180814.J0422+73 (R2), and to characterise their repeat statistics. We also want to significantly improve the sky localisation of R2 and identify its host galaxy. Methods. We used the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope to conduct extensive follow-up of these two repeating FRBs. The new phased-array feed system, Apertif, allows one to cover the entire sky position uncertainty of R2 with fine spatial resolution in a single pointing. The data were searched for bursts around the known dispersion measures of the two sources. We characterise the energy distribution and the clustering of detected R1 bursts. Results. We detected 30 bursts from R1. The non-Poissonian nature is clearly evident from the burst arrival times, which is consistent with earlier claims. Our measurements indicate a dispersion measure (DM) of 563.5(2) pc cm(-3), suggesting a significant increase in DM over the past few years. Assuming a constant position angle across the burst, we place an upper limit of 8% on the linear polarisation fraction for the brightest burst in our sample. We did not detect any bursts from R2. Conclusions. A single power-law might not fit the R1 burst energy distribution across the full energy range or widely separated detections. Our observations provide improved constraints on the clustering of R1 bursts. Our stringent upper limits on the linear polarisation fraction imply a significant depolarisation, either intrinsic to the emission mechanism or caused by the intervening medium at 1400 MHz, which is not observed at higher frequencies. The non-detection of any bursts from R2, despite nearly 300 h of observations, implies either a highly clustered nature of the bursts, a steep spectral index, or a combination of the two assuming that the source is still active. Another possibility is that R2 has turned off completely, either permanently or for an extended period of time.
|
|
| 10. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
-
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire : an expert assessment
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 11:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.
|
|
| 11. |
- Adebahr, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Apercal - The Apertif calibration pipeline
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Computing. - : Elsevier BV. - 2213-1337. ; 38
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Apertif (APERture Tile In Focus) is one of the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) pathfinder facilities. The Apertif project is an upgrade to the 50-year-old Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) using phased-array feed technology. The new receivers create 40 individual beams on the sky, achieving an instantaneous sky coverage of 6.5 square degrees. The primary goal of the Apertif Imaging Survey is to perform a wide survey of 3500 square degrees (AWES) and a medium deep survey of 350 square degrees (AMES) of neutral atomic hydrogen (up to a redshift of 0.26), radio continuum emission and polarisation. Each survey pointing yields 4.6 TB of correlated data. The goal of Apercal is to process this data and fully automatically generate science ready data products for the astronomical community while keeping up with the survey observations. We make use of common astronomical software packages in combination with Python based routines and parallelisation. We use an object oriented module-based approach to ensure easy adaptation of the pipeline. A Jupyter notebook based framework allows user interaction and execution of individual modules as well as a full automatic processing of a complete survey observation. If nothing interrupts processing, we are able to reduce a single pointing survey observation on our five node cluster with 24 physical cores and 256 GB of memory each within 24 h keeping up with the speed of the surveys. The quality of the generated images is sufficient for scientific usage for 44% of the recorded data products with single images reaching dynamic ranges of several thousands. Future improvements will increase this percentage to over 80%. Our design allowed development of the pipeline in parallel to the commissioning of the Apertif system.
|
|
| 12. |
- Boersma, O. M., et al.
(författare)
-
A search for radio emission from double-neutron star merger GW190425 using Apertif
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 650
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context Detection of the electromagnetic emission from coalescing binary neutron stars (BNS) is important for understanding the merger and afterglow. Aims. We present a search for a radio counterpart to the gravitational-wave (GW) source GW190425, a BNS merger, using Apertif on the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT). Methods We observed a field of high probability in the associated localisation region for three epochs at ΔTâ€., =â€., 68, 90, 109 d post merger. We identified all sources that exhibit flux variations consistent with the expected afterglow emission of GW190425. We also looked for possible transients. These are sources that are only present in one epoch. In addition, we quantified our ability to search for radio afterglows in the fourth and future observing runs of the GW detector network using Monte Carlo simulations. Results We found 25 afterglow candidates based on their variability. None of these could be associated with a possible host galaxy at the luminosity distance of GW190425. We also found 55 transient afterglow candidates that were only detected in one epoch. All of these candidates turned out to be image artefacts. In the fourth observing run, we predict that up to three afterglows will be detectable by Apertif. Conclusions While we did not find a source related to the afterglow emission of GW190425, the search validates our methods for future searches of radio afterglows.
|
|
| 13. |
- Denes, H., et al.
(författare)
-
Characterising the Apertif primary beam response
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 667
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Phased array feeds (PAFs) are multi-element receivers in the focal plane of a telescope that make it possible to simultaneously form multiple beams on the sky by combining the complex gains of the individual antenna elements. Recently, the Westerbork Synthesis Radio Telescope (WSRT) was upgraded with PAF receivers to carry out several observing programs, including two imaging surveys and a time-domain survey. The Apertif imaging surveys use a configuration of 40 partially overlapping compound beams (CBs) simultaneously formed on the sky and arranged in an approximately rectangular shape. Aims. This work is aimed at characterising the response of the 40 Apertif CBs to create frequency-resolved I, XX, and YY polarization empirical beam shapes. The measured CB maps can be used for the image deconvolution, primary beam correction, and mosaicking processes of Apertif imaging data. Methods. We used drift scan measurements to measure the response of each of the 40 Apertif CBs. We derived beam maps for all individual beams in I, XX, and YY polarisation in 10 or 18 frequency bins over the same bandwidth as the Apertif imaging surveys. We sampled the main lobe of the beams and the side lobes up to a radius of 0.6 degrees from the beam centres. In addition, we derived beam maps for each individual WSRT dish. Results. We present the frequency and time dependence of the beam shapes and sizes. We compared the compound beam shapes derived with the drift scan method to beam shapes derived with an independent method using a Gaussian Process Regression comparison between the Apertif continuum images and the NRAO VLA Sky Survey (NVSS) catalogue. We find a good agreement between the beam shapes derived with the two independent methods.
|
|
| 14. |
- Prevey, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 23:7, s. 2660-2671
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.
|
|
| 15. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 119:2, s. 359-374
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C) are stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone, more than twice as much C than in the atmosphere. The overall amount, rate, and form of C released to the atmosphere in a warmer world will influence the strength of the permafrost C feedback to climate change. We used a survey to quantify variability in the perception of the vulnerability of permafrost C to climate change. Experts were asked to provide quantitative estimates of permafrost change in response to four scenarios of warming. For the highest warming scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that C release from permafrost zone soils could be 19-45 Pg C by 2040, 162-288 Pg C by 2100, and 381-616 Pg C by 2300 in CO2 equivalent using 100-year CH4 global warming potential (GWP). These values become 50 % larger using 20-year CH4 GWP, with a third to a half of expected climate forcing coming from CH4 even though CH4 was only 2.3 % of the expected C release. Experts projected that two-thirds of this release could be avoided under the lowest warming scenario (RCP 2.6). These results highlight the potential risk from permafrost thaw and serve to frame a hypothesis about the magnitude of this feedback to climate change. However, the level of emissions proposed here are unlikely to overshadow the impact of fossil fuel burning, which will continue to be the main source of C emissions and climate forcing.
|
|
| 16. |
- Collins, C. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Experimental warming differentially affects vegetative and reproductive phenology of tundra plants
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid climate warming is altering Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystem structure and function, including shifts in plant phenology. While the advancement of green up and flowering are well-documented, it remains unclear whether all phenophases, particularly those later in the season, will shift in unison or respond divergently to warming. Here, we present the largest synthesis to our knowledge of experimental warming effects on tundra plant phenology from the International Tundra Experiment. We examine the effect of warming on a suite of season-wide plant phenophases. Results challenge the expectation that all phenophases will advance in unison to warming. Instead, we find that experimental warming caused: (1) larger phenological shifts in reproductive versus vegetative phenophases and (2) advanced reproductive phenophases and green up but delayed leaf senescence which translated to a lengthening of the growing season by approximately 3%. Patterns were consistent across sites, plant species and over time. The advancement of reproductive seasons and lengthening of growing seasons may have significant consequences for trophic interactions and ecosystem function across the tundra. It is unclear whether climate driven phenological shifts of tundra plants are consistent across the plant growing season. Here the authors analyse data from a network of field warming experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra, finding that warming differentially affects the timing and duration of reproductive and vegetative phenology.
|
|
| 17. |
- Prevey, J. S., et al.
(författare)
-
Warming shortens flowering seasons of tundra plant communities
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 3:1, s. 45-52
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Advancing phenology is one of the most visible effects of climate change on plant communities, and has been especially pronounced in temperature-limited tundra ecosystems. However, phenological responses have been shown to differ greatly between species, with some species shifting phenology more than others. We analysed a database of 42,689 tundra plant phenological observations to show that warmer temperatures are leading to a contraction of community-level flowering seasons in tundra ecosystems due to a greater advancement in the flowering times of late-flowering species than early-flowering species. Shorter flowering seasons with a changing climate have the potential to alter trophic interactions in tundra ecosystems. Interestingly, these findings differ from those of warmer ecosystems, where early-flowering species have been found to be more sensitive to temperature change, suggesting that community-level phenological responses to warming can vary greatly between biomes.
|
|
| 18. |
- Abbott, Benjamin W., et al.
(författare)
-
We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 10
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
|
|
| 19. |
- Koven, C. D., et al.
(författare)
-
A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Philosophical Transactions. Series A. - : The Royal Society. - 1364-503X .- 1471-2962. ; 373:2054
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (gamma sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC degrees C-1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.
|
|
| 20. |
- Pastor-Marazuela, Ines, et al.
(författare)
-
Chromatic periodic activity down to 120 megahertz in a fast radio burst
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 596:7873, s. 505-508
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are extragalactic astrophysical transients(1) whose brightness requires emitters that are highly energetic yet compact enough to produce the short, millisecond-duration bursts. FRBs have thus far been detected at frequencies from 8 gigahertz (ref. (2)) down to 300 megahertz (ref. (3)), but lower-frequency emission has remained elusive. Some FRBs repeat(4-6), and one of the most frequently detected, FRB 20180916B(7), has a periodicity cycle of 16.35 days (ref. (8)). Using simultaneous radio data spanning a wide range of wavelengths (a factor of more than 10), here we show that FRB 20180916B emits down to 120 megahertz, and that its activity window is frequency dependent (that is, chromatic). The window is both narrower and earlier at higher frequencies. Binary wind interaction models predict a wider window at higher frequencies, the opposite of our observations. Our full-cycle coverage shows that the 16.3-day periodicity is not aliased. We establish that low-frequency FRB emission can escape the local medium. For bursts of the same fluence, FRB 20180916B is more active below 200 megahertz than at 1.4 gigahertz. Combining our results with previous upper limits on the all-sky FRB rate at 150 megahertz, we find there are 3-450 FRBs in the sky per day above 50 Jy ms. Our chromatic results strongly disfavour scenarios in which absorption from strong stellar winds causes FRB periodicity. We demonstrate that some FRBs are found in 'clean' environments that do not absorb or scatter low-frequency radiation. The fast radio burst FRB 20180916B repeats with a periodicity of 16 days, and is now found to emit down to a frequency of 120 MHz, much lower than previously observed.
|
|
| 21. |
- Prevéy, Janet S., et al.
(författare)
-
The tundra phenology database: more than two decades of tundra phenology responses to climate change
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Arctic Science. - : Canadian Science Publishing. - 2368-7460. ; 8:3, s. 1026-1039
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Observations of changes in phenology have provided some of the strongest signals of the effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. The International Tundra Experiment (ITEX), initiated in the early 1990s, established a common protocol to measure plant phenology in tundra study areas across the globe. Today, this valuable collec-tion of phenology measurements depicts the responses of plants at the colder extremes of our planet to experimental and ambient changes in temperature over the past decades. The database contains 150 434 phenology observations of 278 plant species taken at 28 study areas for periods of 1–26 years. Here we describe the full data set to increase the visibility and use of these data in global analyses and to invite phenology data contributions from underrepresented tundra locations. Portions of this tundra phenology database have been used in three recent syntheses, some data sets are expanded, others are from entirely new study areas, and the entirety of these data are now available at the Polar Data Catalogue (https://doi.org/10.21963/13215).
|
|
| 22. |
- Schuur, E. A. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 520:7546, s. 171-179
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. Awarming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics.
|
|
| 23. |
- Bi, Shanshan, et al.
(författare)
-
Perceived Social Support from Different Sources and Adolescent Life Satisfaction Across 42 Countries/Regions : The Moderating Role of National-Level Generalized Trust
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Journal of Youth and Adolescence. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0047-2891 .- 1573-6601. ; 50:7, s. 1384-1409
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although previous research established a positive association between perceived social support and adolescent life satisfaction, little is known about the relative importance of different sources of support for adolescent life satisfaction and cross-country variations in this respect. Using large-scale representative samples from the 2017/18 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study, this study examined to what extent the association between social support and life satisfaction in early adolescence varied across different social sources and countries. Also, it examined whether cross-country variations are explained by national-level generalized trust, a sociocultural factor that shapes adolescent socialization. National-level data were linked to data from 183,918 early adolescents (M-age = 13.56, SD = 1.63, 52% girls) from 42 European and North American countries/regions obtained from HBSC. Multilevel regression analyses yielded a positive association between support from different sources and life satisfaction. The strongest associations were found for support from families, followed by teachers and classmates, and weakest for support from friends. Associations varied across different countries/regions. National-level trust amplified the association between perceived classmate support and adolescent life satisfaction. The revealed cross-country differences open avenues for future cross-cultural research on explanations for cross-cultural differences in the association between social support from different sources and life satisfaction in early adolescence.
|
|
| 24. |
|
|
| 25. |
- Lu, Chunyan, et al.
(författare)
-
Diminishing warming effects on plant phenology over time
- 2024
-
Ingår i: NEW PHYTOLOGIST. - 0028-646X .- 1469-8137.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant phenology, the timing of recurrent biological events, shows key and complex response to climate warming, with consequences for ecosystem functions and services. A key challenge for predicting plant phenology under future climates is to determine whether the phenological changes will persist with more intensive and long-term warming. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of 103 experimental warming studies around the globe to investigate the responses of four phenophases - leaf-out, first flowering, last flowering, and leaf coloring. We showed that warming advanced leaf-out and flowering but delayed leaf coloring across herbaceous and woody plants. As the magnitude of warming increased, the response of most plant phenophases gradually leveled off for herbaceous plants, while phenology responded in proportion to warming in woody plants. We also found that the experimental effects of warming on plant phenology diminished over time across all phenophases. Specifically, the rate of changes in first flowering for herbaceous species, as well as leaf-out and leaf coloring for woody species, decreased as the experimental duration extended. Together, these results suggest that the real-world impact of global warming on plant phenology will diminish over time as temperatures continue to increase.
|
|
| 26. |
- Mishra, U., et al.
(författare)
-
Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions : a review of recent progress and remaining challenges
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 8:3, s. 035020-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.
|
|
| 27. |
- Oehri, Jacqueline, et al.
(författare)
-
Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994–2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm−2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.
|
|
| 28. |
- Ramage, Justine, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
-
The Net GHG Balance and Budget of the Permafrost Region (2000–2020) From Ecosystem Flux Upscaling
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 38:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The northern permafrost region has been projected to shift from a net sink to a net source of carbon under global warming. However, estimates of the contemporary net greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and budgets of the permafrost region remain highly uncertain. Here, we construct the first comprehensive bottom-up budgets of CO2, CH4, and N2O across the terrestrial permafrost region using databases of more than 1000 in situ flux measurements and a land cover-based ecosystem flux upscaling approach for the period 2000–2020. Estimates indicate that the permafrost region emitted a mean annual flux of 12 (−606, 661) Tg CO2–C yr−1, 38 (22, 53) Tg CH4–C yr−1, and 0.67 (0.07, 1.3) Tg N2O–N yr−1 to the atmosphere throughout the period. Thus, the region was a net source of CH4 and N2O, while the CO2 balance was near neutral within its large uncertainties. Undisturbed terrestrial ecosystems had a CO2 sink of −340 (−836, 156) Tg CO2–C yr−1. Vertical emissions from fire disturbances and inland waters largely offset the sink in vegetated ecosystems. When including lateral fluxes for a complete GHG budget, the permafrost region was a net source of C and N, releasing 144 (−506, 826) Tg C yr−1 and 3 (2, 5) Tg N yr−1. Large uncertainty ranges in these estimates point to a need for further expansion of monitoring networks, continued data synthesis efforts, and better integration of field observations, remote sensing data, and ecosystem models to constrain the contemporary net GHG budgets of the permafrost region and track their future trajectory.
|
|
| 29. |
- Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara, et al.
(författare)
-
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains similar to 560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170-740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10-110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2-34) and 38 (13-110) megatons C yr(-1), respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO(2)e) by 2100 (14-110) and 190 Gt CO(2)e by 2300 (45-590), with similar to 30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
|
|
| 30. |
- Treat, Claire C., et al.
(författare)
-
Permafrost Carbon : Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 129:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO2 sink with lower net CO2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: −52 g C m−2 y−1) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: −5 to −9 g C m−2 y−1). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m−2 y−1). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.
|
|
| 31. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
-
Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
|
|
| 32. |
- Euskirchen, Eugénie S., et al.
(författare)
-
Current knowledge and uncertainties associated with the Arctic greenhouse gas budget
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Balancing Greenhouse Gas Budgets : Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases - Accounting for Natural and Anthropogenic Flows of CO2 and other Trace Gases. - 9780128149539 - 9780128149522 ; , s. 159-201
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- • The Arctic is continuing to warm faster than any other region on Earth, but key uncertainties remain in our knowledge of the Arctic carbon cycle. • We review the most current knowledge pertaining to estimates of arctic greenhouse gas components and discuss uncertainties associated with these measurements and models. • While the Arctic Ocean is consistently estimated as a carbon sink, we have yet to reach an agreement on either the magnitude or the sign of the arctic terrestrial carbon budget. • Much of the uncertainty in the arctic carbon budget is related to the extent of the amount of carbon released as permafrost thaws, the magnitude of shoulder season and winter ecosystem respiration, and the impact of rising temperature and atmospheric [CO2] on plant growth. • We cannot count on the Arctic to store as much carbon as it has in the past, and evidence indicates it will likely store much less.
|
|
| 33. |
- Hicks Pries, Caitlin E., et al.
(författare)
-
Decadal warming causes a consistent and persistent shift from heterotrophic to autotrophic respiration in contrasting permafrost ecosystems
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 21:12, s. 4508-4519
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Soil carbon in permafrost ecosystems has the potential to become a major positive feedback to climate change if permafrost thaw increases heterotrophic decomposition. However, warming can also stimulate autotrophic production leading to increased ecosystem carbon storage-a negative climate change feedback. Few studies partitioning ecosystem respiration examine decadal warming effects or compare responses among ecosystems. Here, we first examined how 11 years of warming during different seasons affected autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration in a bryophyte-dominated peatland in Abisko, Sweden. We used natural abundance radiocarbon to partition ecosystem respiration into autotrophic respiration, associated with production, and heterotrophic decomposition. Summertime warming decreased the age of carbon respired by the ecosystem due to increased proportional contributions from autotrophic and young soil respiration and decreased proportional contributions from old soil. Summertime warming's large effect was due to not only warmer air temperatures during the growing season, but also to warmer deep soils year-round. Second, we compared ecosystem respiration responses between two contrasting ecosystems, the Abisko peatland and a tussock-dominated tundra in Healy, Alaska. Each ecosystem had two different timescales of warming (<5years and over a decade). Despite the Abisko peatland having greater ecosystem respiration and larger contributions from heterotrophic respiration than the Healy tundra, both systems responded consistently to short- and long-term warming with increased respiration, increased autotrophic contributions to ecosystem respiration, and increased ratios of autotrophic to heterotrophic respiration. We did not detect an increase in old soil carbon losses with warming at either site. If increased autotrophic respiration is balanced by increased primary production, as is the case in the Healy tundra, warming will not cause these ecosystems to become growing season carbon sources. Warming instead causes a persistent shift from heterotrophic to more autotrophic control of the growing season carbon cycle in these carbon-rich permafrost ecosystems.
|
|
| 34. |
- McGuire, A. David, et al.
(författare)
-
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:7, s. 1015-1037
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8x10(3)km(2)yr(-1)). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954TgCyr(-1) between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982-2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models.
|
|
| 35. |
- Mishra, Umakant, et al.
(författare)
-
Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 7:9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated that Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate.
|
|
| 36. |
- Olefeldt, D., et al.
(författare)
-
Circumpolar distribution and carbon storage of thermokarst landscapes
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thermokarst is the process whereby the thawing of ice- rich permafrost ground causes land subsidence, resulting in development of distinctive landforms. Accelerated thermokarst due to climate change will damage infrastructure, but also impact hydrology, ecology and biogeochemistry. Here, we present a circumpolar assessment of the distribution of thermokarst landscapes, defined as landscapes comprised of current thermokarst landforms and areas susceptible to future thermokarst development. At 3.6 x 10(6) km(2), thermokarst landscapes are estimated to cover similar to 20% of the northern permafrost region, with approximately equal contributions from three landscape types where characteristic wetland, lake and hillslope thermokarst landforms occur. We estimate that approximately half of the below-ground organic carbon within the study region is stored in thermokarst landscapes. Our results highlight the importance of explicitly considering thermokarst when assessing impacts of climate change, including future landscape greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a means for assessing such impacts at the circumpolar scale.
|
|
| 37. |
- Schuur, Edward A. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Permafrost and Climate Change : Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Annual Review Environment and Resources. - : Annual Reviews. - 1543-5938 .- 1545-2050. ; 47, s. 343-371
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid Arctic environmental change affects the entire Earth system as thawing permafrost ecosystems release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Understanding how much permafrost carbon will be released, over what time frame, and what the relative emissions of carbon dioxide and methane will be is key for understanding the impact on global climate. In addition, the response of vegetation in a warming climate has the potential to offset at least some of the accelerating feedback to the climate from permafrost carbon. Temperature, organic carbon, and ground ice are key regulators for determining the impact of permafrost ecosystems on the global carbon cycle. Together, these encompass services of permafrost relevant to global society as well as to the people living in the region and help to determine the landscape-level response of this region to a changing climate.
|
|
| 38. |
- Turetsky, Merritt R., et al.
(författare)
-
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 13:2, s. 138-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The permafrost zone is expected to be a substantial carbon source to the atmosphere, yet large-scale models currently only simulate gradual changes in seasonally thawed soil. Abrupt thaw will probably occur in <20% of the permafrost zone but could affect half of permafrost carbon through collapsing ground, rapid erosion and landslides. Here, we synthesize the best available information and develop inventory models to simulate abrupt thaw impacts on permafrost carbon balance. Emissions across 2.5 million km(2) of abrupt thaw could provide a similar climate feedback as gradual thaw emissions from the entire 18 million km(2) permafrost region under the warming projection of Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. While models forecast that gradual thaw may lead to net ecosystem carbon uptake under projections of Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, abrupt thaw emissions are likely to offset this potential carbon sink. Active hillslope erosional features will occupy 3% of abrupt thaw terrain by 2300 but emit one-third of abrupt thaw carbon losses. Thaw lakes and wetlands are methane hot spots but their carbon release is partially offset by slowly regrowing vegetation. After considering abrupt thaw stabilization, lake drainage and soil carbon uptake by vegetation regrowth, we conclude that models considering only gradual permafrost thaw are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
|
|
