| 1. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 2. |
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| 4. |
- Alvarez, E. M., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 5. |
- Bryazka, D., et al.
(author)
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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10347, s. 185-235
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (7.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 8. |
- Sharma, R., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:7, s. 627-647
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2.17 million (2.00-2.34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1.09 million (1.02-1.15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22.2 (95% UI 21.3-23.0) per 100 000 to 26.7 (24.6-28.9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14.3 (13.5-14.9) per 100 000 to 13.7 (12.6-14.5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308.5 (294.7-320.7) per 100 000 to 295.5 (275.2-313.0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62.0 [48.9-80.0] per 100 000), Monaco (60.7 [48.5-73.6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56.6 [42.8-71.9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31.4 [26.0-37.1] per 100 000), Brunei (30.3 [26.6-34.1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28.6 [23.6-34.0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15.6%), smoking (13.3%), a diet low in calcium (12.9%), and alcohol use (9.9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 9. |
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| 11. |
- James, SL, et al.
(author)
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Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2020
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In: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 96-114
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.MethodsWe reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).FindingsIn 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).InterpretationInjuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
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| 12. |
- James, SL, et al.
(author)
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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
- 2020
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In: Injury prevention : journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. - : BMJ. - 1475-5785. ; 26:SUPP_1Supp 1, s. 125-153
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.MethodsIn this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.ResultsGBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.ConclusionsGBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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- 2019
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 18. |
- Bellenguez, C, et al.
(author)
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New insights into the genetic etiology of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias
- 2022
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In: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 54:4, s. 412-436
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Characterization of the genetic landscape of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and related dementias (ADD) provides a unique opportunity for a better understanding of the associated pathophysiological processes. We performed a two-stage genome-wide association study totaling 111,326 clinically diagnosed/‘proxy’ AD cases and 677,663 controls. We found 75 risk loci, of which 42 were new at the time of analysis. Pathway enrichment analyses confirmed the involvement of amyloid/tau pathways and highlighted microglia implication. Gene prioritization in the new loci identified 31 genes that were suggestive of new genetically associated processes, including the tumor necrosis factor alpha pathway through the linear ubiquitin chain assembly complex. We also built a new genetic risk score associated with the risk of future AD/dementia or progression from mild cognitive impairment to AD/dementia. The improvement in prediction led to a 1.6- to 1.9-fold increase in AD risk from the lowest to the highest decile, in addition to effects of age and the APOE ε4 allele.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Nichols, E, et al.
(author)
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Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study
- 2021
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In: BMC medical informatics and decision making. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1472-6947. ; 21:1, s. 241-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundData sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.MethodsUsing cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001–2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.ResultsOur algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86–90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97–0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3–4) in individuals 70–79, 11% (9–12) in individuals 80–89 years old, and 28% (22–35) in those 90 and older.ConclusionsOur model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Huang, Chelsea X., et al.
(author)
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TESS Spots a Hot Jupiter with an Inner Transiting Neptune
- 2020
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In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 892:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hot Jupiters are rarely accompanied by other planets within a factor of a few in orbital distance. Previously, only two such systems have been found. Here, we report the discovery of a third system using data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). The host star, TOI-1130, is an eleventh magnitude K-dwarf in Gaia G-band. It has two transiting planets: a Neptune-sized planet (3.65 ± 0.10 R\oplus) with a 4.1 days period, and a hot Jupiter (1.50-0.22+0.27 RJ) with an 8.4 days period. Precise radial-velocity observations show that the mass of the hot Jupiter is 0.974-0.044+0.043 MJ. For the inner Neptune, the data provide only an upper limit on the mass of 0.17 MJ (3σ). Nevertheless, we are confident that the inner planet is real, based on follow-up ground-based photometry and adaptive-optics imaging that rule out other plausible sources of the TESS transit signal. The unusual planetary architecture of and the brightness of the host star make TOI-1130 a good test case for planet formation theories, and an attractive target for future spectroscopic observations.
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| 24. |
- An, Junghwa, et al.
(author)
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Permanent Genetic Resources added to Molecular Ecology Resources Database 1 October 2009-30 November 2009
- 2010
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In: Molecular Ecology Resources. - : Wiley. - 1755-098X .- 1755-0998. ; 10:2, s. 404-408
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This article documents the addition of 411 microsatellite marker loci and 15 pairs of Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) sequencing primers to the Molecular Ecology Resources Database. Loci were developed for the following species: Acanthopagrus schlegeli, Anopheles lesteri, Aspergillus clavatus, Aspergillus flavus, Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus oryzae, Aspergillus terreus, Branchiostoma japonicum, Branchiostoma belcheri, Colias behrii, Coryphopterus personatus, Cynogolssus semilaevis, Cynoglossus semilaevis, Dendrobium officinale, Dendrobium officinale, Dysoxylum malabaricum, Metrioptera roeselii, Myrmeciza exsul, Ochotona thibetana, Neosartorya fischeri, Nothofagus pumilio, Onychodactylus fischeri, Phoenicopterus roseus, Salvia officinalis L., Scylla paramamosain, Silene latifo, Sula sula, and Vulpes vulpes. These loci were cross-tested on the following species: Aspergillus giganteus, Colias pelidne, Colias interior, Colias meadii, Colias eurytheme, Coryphopterus lipernes, Coryphopterus glaucofrenum, Coryphopterus eidolon, Gnatholepis thompsoni, Elacatinus evelynae, Dendrobium loddigesii Dendrobium devonianum, Dysoxylum binectariferum, Nothofagus antarctica, Nothofagus dombeyii, Nothofagus nervosa, Nothofagus obliqua, Sula nebouxii, and Sula variegata. This article also documents the addition of 39 sequencing primer pairs and 15 allele specific primers or probes for Paralithodes camtschaticus.
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| 25. |
- Korth, J., et al.
(author)
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TOI-1130: A photodynamical analysis of a hot Jupiter in resonance with an inner low-mass planet
- 2023
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In: Astronomy & Astrophysics. - 1432-0746 .- 0004-6361. ; 675
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The TOI-1130 is a known planetary system around a K-dwarf consisting of a gas giant planet, TOI-1130 c on an 8.4-day orbit that is accompanied by an inner Neptune-sized planet, TOI-1130 b, with an orbital period of 4.1 days. We collected precise radial velocity (RV) measurements of TOI-1130 with the HARPS and PFS spectrographs as part of our ongoing RV follow-up program. We performed a photodynamical modeling of the HARPS and PFS RVs, along with transit photometry from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP). We determined the planet masses and radii of TOI-1130 b and TOI-1130 c to be Mb = 19.28 ± 0.97M⊕ and Rb = 3.56 ± 0.13 R⊕, and Mc = 325.59 ± 5.59M⊕ and Rc = 13.32−1.41+1.55 R⊕, respectively. We have spectroscopically confirmed the existence of TOI-1130 b, which had previously only been validated. We find that the two planets have orbits with small eccentricities in a 2:1 resonant configuration. This is the first known system with a hot Jupiter and an inner lower mass planet locked in a mean-motion resonance. TOI-1130 belongs to the small, yet growing population of hot Jupiters with an inner low-mass planet that poses a challenge to the pathway scenario for hot Jupiter formation. We also detected a linear RV trend that is possibly due to the presence of an outer massive companion.
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| 26. |
- Scott, G. D., et al.
(author)
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Fluid and Tissue Biomarkers of Lewy Body Dementia: Report of an LBDA Symposium
- 2022
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In: Frontiers in Neurology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-2295. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Lewy Body Dementia Association (LBDA) held a virtual event, the LBDA Biofluid/Tissue Biomarker Symposium, on January 25, 2021, to present advances in biomarkers for Lewy body dementia (LBD), which includes dementia with Lewy bodies (DLBs) and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD). The meeting featured eight internationally known scientists from Europe and the United States and attracted over 200 scientists and physicians from academic centers, the National Institutes of Health, and the pharmaceutical industry. Methods for confirming and quantifying the presence of Lewy body and Alzheimer's pathology and novel biomarkers were discussed.
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| 27. |
- Xu, L., et al.
(author)
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Photothermal catalytic activity of combustion synthesized LaCo:XFe1- xO3 (0 ≤ x ≤ 1) perovskite for CO2 reduction with H2O to CH4 and CH3OH
- 2017
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In: RSC Advances. - : Royal Society of Chemistry. - 2046-2069. ; 7:73, s. 45949-45959
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A range of LaCoxFe1-xO3 perovskites with different Co-doping at the B-site were successfully synthesized via a sol-gel combustion route. Phase pure samples were obtained by calcination at 700 °C for 2 h. The morphology, crystal structure, surface area, band structures, oxygen vacancies and catalytic properties of each analog were characterized in detail. The band structures and oxygen vacancies of the catalysts were changed by adjusting the dopant concentration. The catalytic performance of the LaCoxFe1-xO3 materials was characterized using water as a hydrogen source in the production of CH4 and CH3OH from CO2. Under photothermal conditions, 350 °C with a visible light source equipped with 420 nm cut filter, it was found that x value will influence the total yield and the solar to CH4 and CH3OH energy conversion efficiency significantly. For x = 0.6 compound, the production of CH4 and CH3OH evolution can reach 437.28 and 13.75 μmol g-1 in 6 h, which were 3.2 and 4.0 times that of LaFeO3 under the same condition. The overall solar-to-methane efficiency and solar-to-methanol efficiency for LaCo0.6Fe0.4O3 were 0.603%, 0.019% and for LaFeO3 were 0.191%, 0.005% in the photothermal mode, respectively. The results show that the band gap energy is correlated with the photothermal activity and the LaCo0.6Fe0.4O3 has the position of the CB and VB more suitable for CO2 reduction. The CB and VB value of LaCo0.6Fe0.4O3 were -0.258 and +1.422 V and CO2 (-0.24 V for CB) can be reduced to methane under the conditions.
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| 28. |
- Aranzana-Climent, Vincent, et al.
(author)
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Translational in vitro and in vivo PKPD modelling for apramycin against Gram-negative lung pathogens to facilitate prediction of human efficacious dose in pneumonia
- 2022
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In: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 1198-743X .- 1469-0691. ; 28:10, s. 1367-1374
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: New drugs and methods to efficiently fight carbapenem-resistant gram-negative pathogens are sorely needed. In this study, we characterized the preclinical pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics of the clinical stage drug candidate apramycin in time kill and mouse lung infection models. Based on in vitro and in vivo data, we developed a mathematical model to predict human efficacy. Methods: Three pneumonia-inducing gram-negative species Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Klebsiella pneumoniae were studied. Bactericidal kinetics were evaluated with time-kill curves; in vivo PK were studied in healthy and infected mice, with sampling in plasma and epithelial lining fluid after subcutaneous administration; in vivo efficacy was measured in a neutropenic mouse pneumonia model. A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model, integrating all the data, was developed and simulations were performed. Results: Good lung penetration of apramycin in epithelial lining fluid (ELF) was shown (area under the curve (AUC)ELF/AUCplasma = 88%). Plasma clearance was 48% lower in lung infected mice compared to healthy mice. For two out of five strains studied, a delay in growth (∼5 h) was observed in vivo but not in vitro. The mathematical model enabled integration of lung PK to drive mouse PK and pharmacodynamics. Simulations predicted that 30 mg/kg of apramycin once daily would result in bacteriostasis in patients. Discussion: Apramycin is a candidate for treatment of carbapenem-resistant gram-negative pneumonia as demonstrated in an integrated modeling framework for three bacterial species. We show that mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simultaneous inclusion of multiple data sources, notably plasma and lung in vivo PK and simulation of expected scenarios in a clinical setting, notably lung infections. © 2022 The Author(s)
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| 29. |
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| 30. |
- Becker, K., et al.
(author)
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Antibacterial activity of apramycin at acidic pH warrants wide therapeutic window in the treatment of complicated urinary tract infections and acute pyelonephritis
- 2021
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In: EBioMedicine. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 2352-3964. ; 73
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The clinical-stage drug candidate EBL-1003 (apramycin) represents a distinct new subclass of aminoglycoside antibiotics for the treatment of drug-resistant infections. It has demonstrated best-in-class coverage of resistant isolates, and preclinical efficacy in lung infection models. However, preclinical evidence for its utility in other disease indications has yet to be provided. Here we studied the therapeutic potential of EBL-1003 in the treatment of complicated urinary tract infection and acute pyelonephritis (cUTI/AP). Methods: A combination of data-base mining, antimicrobial susceptibility testing, time-kill experiments, and four murine infection models was used in a comprehensive assessment of the microbiological coverage and efficacy of EBL-1003 against Gram-negative uropathogens. The pharmacokinetics and renal toxicology of EBL-1003 in rats was studied to assess the therapeutic window of EBL-1003 in the treatment of cUTI/AP. Findings: EBL-1003 demonstrated broad-spectrum activity and rapid multi-log CFU reduction against a phenotypic variety of bacterial uropathogens including aminoglycoside-resistant clinical isolates. The basicity of amines in the apramycin molecule suggested a higher increase in positive charge at urinary pH when compared to gentamicin or amikacin, resulting in sustained drug uptake and bactericidal activity, and consequently in potent efficacy in mouse infection models. Renal pharmacokinetics, biomarkers for toxicity, and kidney histopathology in adult rats all indicated a significantly lower nephrotoxicity of EBL-1003 than of gentamicin. Interpretation: This study provides preclinical proof-of-concept for the efficacy of EBL-1003 in cUTI/AP. Similar efficacy but lower nephrotoxicity of EBL-1003 in comparison to gentamicin may thus translate into a higher safety margin and a wider therapeutic window in the treatment of cUTI/API. Funding: A full list of funding bodies that contributed to this study can be found in the Acknowledgements section. © 2021 The Author(s)
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| 31. |
- Becker, K., et al.
(author)
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Efficacy of EBL-1003 (apramycin) against Acinetobacter baumannii lung infections in mice
- 2021
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In: Clinical Microbiology and Infection. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 1198-743X .- 1469-0691. ; 27:9, s. 1315-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Novel therapeutics are urgently required for the treatment of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) causing critical infections with high mortality. Here we assessed the therapeutic potential of the clinical-stage drug candidate EBL-1003 (crystalline free base of apramycin) in the treatment of CRAB lung infections. Methods: The genotypic and phenotypic susceptibility of CRAB clinical isolates to aminoglycosides and colistin was assessed by database mining and broth microdilution. The therapeutic potential was assessed by target attainment simulations on the basis of time–kill kinetics, a murine lung infection model, comparative pharmacokinetic analysis in plasma, epithelial lining fluid (ELF) and lung tissue, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling. Results: Resistance gene annotations of 5451 CRAB genomes deposited in the National Database of Antibiotic Resistant Organisms (NDARO) suggested >99.9% of genotypic susceptibility to apramycin. Low susceptibility to standard-of-care aminoglycosides and high susceptibility to EBL-1003 were confirmed by antimicrobial susceptibility testing of 100 A. baumannii isolates. Time–kill experiments and a mouse lung infection model with the extremely drug-resistant CRAB strain AR Bank #0282 resulted in rapid 4-log CFU reduction both in vitro and in vivo. A single dose of 125 mg/kg EBL-1003 in CRAB-infected mice resulted in an AUC of 339 h × μg/mL in plasma and 299 h × μg/mL in ELF, suggesting a lung penetration of 88%. PKPD simulations suggested a previously predicted dose of 30 mg/kg in patients (creatinine clearance (CLCr) = 80 mL/min) to result in >99% probability of –2 log target attainment for MICs up to 16 μg/mL. Conclusions: This study provides proof of concept for the efficacy of EBL-1003 in the treatment of CRAB lung infections. Broad in vitro coverage, rapid killing, potent in vivo efficacy, and a high probability of target attainment render EBL-1003 a strong therapeutic candidate for a priority pathogen for which treatment options are very limited. © 2020 The Author(s)
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| 32. |
- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2021
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In: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 20:10, s. 795-820
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12.2 million (95% UI 11.0-13.6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93.2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6.55 million (6.00-7.02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11.6% [10.8-12.2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5.7% [5.1-6.2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70.0% (67.0-73.0), prevalent strokes increased by 85.0% (83.0-88.0), deaths from stroke increased by 43.0% (31.0-55.0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32.0% (22.0-42.0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17.0% (15.0-18.0), mortality decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0), prevalence decreased by 6.0% (5.0-7.0), and DALYs decreased by 36.0% (31.0-42.0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22.0% (21.0-24.0) and incidence rates increased by 15.0% (12.0-18.0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3.6 (3.5-3.8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3.7 (3.5-3.9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62.4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7.63 million [6.57-8.96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27.9% (3.41 million [2.97-3.91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9.7% (1.18 million [1.01-1.39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79.6 million [67.7-90.8] DALYs or 55.5% [48.2-62.0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34.9 million [22.3-48.6] DALYs or 24.3% [15.7-33.2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28.9 million [19.8-41.5] DALYs or 20.2% [13.8-29.1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28.7 million [23.4-33.4] DALYs or 20.1% [16.6-23.0]), and smoking (25.3 million [22.6-28.2] DALYs or 17.6% [16.4-19.0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
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| 33. |
- Ivan, John N., et al.
(author)
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Social network effects on attitudes about pedestrian street crossing behaviour : preliminary findings
- 2016
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The effectiveness of interventions to improve pedestrian safety, whether involving engineering, education, or enforcement, is limited by the behavior of the public in response to the interventions. It is not difficult to imagine that the behavioral response of an individual to engineering and educational road safety interventions may be at least partially explained by demographic characteristics. It is also plausible that membership and interactions in a social group influences an individual’s behavior and attitudes about road safety and response to such interventions. This paper describes preliminary findings from a project that is employing a mixed survey framework of in-person gatherings and online respondent driven sampling surveys to explore how demographics, pedestrian safety education and social group membership and interaction explain an individual’s behavior and attitudes related to crossing a signalized intersection as a pedestrian in different physical and travel settings. This paper describes the findings from small size in-person samples. Multinomial logit modeling will be applied to predict stated pedestrian behavior. The results will shed light on pedestrian attitudes about traffic signal design and operation as well as identify how to most effectively improve pedestrian safety through education and social group interaction.
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| 34. |
- Juhas, Mario, et al.
(author)
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In vitro activity of apramycin against multidrug-, carbapenem- and aminoglycoside-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and Acinetobacter baumannii
- 2019
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In: Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0305-7453 .- 1460-2091. ; 74:4, s. 944-952
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Widespread antimicrobial resistance often limits the availability of therapeutic options to only a few last-resort drugs that are themselves challenged by emerging resistance and adverse side effects. Apramycin, an aminoglycoside antibiotic, has a unique chemical structure that evades almost all resistance mechanisms including the RNA methyltransferases frequently encountered in carbapenemase-producing clinical isolates. This study evaluates the in vitro activity of apramycin against multidrug-, carbapenem- and aminoglycoside-resistant Enterobacteriaceae and Acinetobacter baumannii, and provides a rationale for its superior antibacterial activity in the presence of aminoglycoside resistance determinants.Methods: A thorough antibacterial assessment of apramycin with 1232 clinical isolates from Europe, Asia, Africa and South America was performed by standard CLSI broth microdilution testing. WGS and susceptibility testing with an engineered panel of aminoglycoside resistance-conferring determinants were used to provide a mechanistic rationale for the breadth of apramycin activity.Results: MIC distributions and MIC90 values demonstrated broad antibacterial activity of apramycin against Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Enterobacter spp., Morganella morganii, Citrobacter freundii, Providencia spp., Proteus mirabilis, Serratia marcescens and A. baumannii. Genotypic analysis revealed the variety of aminoglycoside-modifying enzymes and rRNA methyltransferases that rendered a remarkable proportion of clinical isolates resistant to standard-of-care aminoglycosides, but not to apramycin. Screening a panel of engineered strains each with a single well-defined resistance mechanism further demonstrated a lack of cross-resistance to gentamicin, amikacin, tobramycin and plazomicin.Conclusions: Its superior breadth of activity renders apramycin a promising drug candidate for the treatment of systemic Gram-negative infections that are resistant to treatment with other aminoglycoside antibiotics.
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
- Sha, Mahesh Kumar, et al.
(author)
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Validation of methane and carbon monoxide from Sentinel-5 Precursor using TCCON and NDACC-IRWG stations
- 2021
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In: Atmospheric Measurement Techniques. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1867-1381 .- 1867-8548. ; 14:9, s. 6249-6304
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) mission with the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board has been measuring solar radiation backscattered by the Earth's atmosphere and surface since its launch on 13 October 2017. In this paper, we present for the first time the S5P operational methane (CH4) and carbon monoxide (CO) products' validation results covering a period of about 3 years using global Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Infrared Working Group of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC-IRWG) network data, accounting for a priori alignment and smoothing uncertainties in the validation, and testing the sensitivity of validation results towards the application of advanced co-location criteria. We found that the S5P standard and bias-corrected CH4 data over land surface for the recommended quality filtering fulfil the mission requirements. The systematic difference of the bias-corrected total column-averaged dry air mole fraction of methane (XCH4) data with respect to TCCON data is -0.26 +/- 0.56 % in comparison to -0.68 +/- 0.74 % for the standard XCH4 data, with a correlation of 0.6 for most stations. The bias shows a seasonal dependence. We found that the S5P CO data over all surfaces for the recommended quality filtering generally fulfil the missions requirements, with a few exceptions, which are mostly due to co-location mismatches and limited availability of data. The systematic difference between the S5P total column-averaged dry air mole fraction of carbon monoxide (XCO) and the TCCON data is on average 9.22 +/- 3.45 % (standard TCCON XCO) and 2.45 +/- 3.38 % (unscaled TCCON XCO). We found that the systematic difference between the S5P CO column and NDACC CO column (excluding two outlier stations) is on average 6.5 +/- 3.54 %. We found a correlation of above 0.9 for most TCCON and NDACC stations. The study shows the high quality of S5P CH4 and CO data by validating the products against reference global TCCON and NDACC stations covering a wide range of latitudinal bands, atmospheric conditions and surface conditions.
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| 38. |
- Sha, ZQ, et al.
(author)
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Subtly altered topological asymmetry of brain structural covariance networks in autism spectrum disorder across 43 datasets from the ENIGMA consortium
- 2022
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In: Molecular psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5578 .- 1359-4184. ; 27:4, s. 2114-2125
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Small average differences in the left-right asymmetry of cerebral cortical thickness have been reported in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) compared to typically developing controls, affecting widespread cortical regions. The possible impacts of these regional alterations in terms of structural network effects have not previously been characterized. Inter-regional morphological covariance analysis can capture network connectivity between different cortical areas at the macroscale level. Here, we used cortical thickness data from 1455 individuals with ASD and 1560 controls, across 43 independent datasets of the ENIGMA consortium’s ASD Working Group, to assess hemispheric asymmetries of intra-individual structural covariance networks, using graph theory-based topological metrics. Compared with typical features of small-world architecture in controls, the ASD sample showed significantly altered average asymmetry of networks involving the fusiform, rostral middle frontal, and medial orbitofrontal cortex, involving higher randomization of the corresponding right-hemispheric networks in ASD. A network involving the superior frontal cortex showed decreased right-hemisphere randomization. Based on comparisons with meta-analyzed functional neuroimaging data, the altered connectivity asymmetry particularly affected networks that subserve executive functions, language-related and sensorimotor processes. These findings provide a network-level characterization of altered left-right brain asymmetry in ASD, based on a large combined sample. Altered asymmetrical brain development in ASD may be partly propagated among spatially distant regions through structural connectivity.
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| 39. |
- Sou, Tomás, et al.
(author)
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Model-Informed Drug Development for Antimicrobials : Translational PK and PK/PD Modeling to Predict an Efficacious Human Dose for Apramycin
- 2021
-
In: Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0009-9236 .- 1532-6535. ; 109:4, s. 1063-1073
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Apramycin represents a subclass of aminoglycoside antibiotics that has been shown to evade almost all mechanisms of clinically relevant aminoglycoside resistance. Model-informed drug development may facilitate its transition from preclinical to clinical phase. This study explored the potential of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling to maximize the use of in vitro time-kill and in vivo preclinical data for prediction of a human efficacious dose (HED) for apramycin. PK model parameters of apramycin from four different species (mouse, rat, guinea pig, and dog) were allometrically scaled to humans. A semimechanistic PK/PD model was developed from the rich in vitro data on four Escherichia coli strains and subsequently the sparse in vivo efficacy data on the same strains were integrated. An efficacious human dose was predicted from the PK/PD model and compared with the classical PK/PD index methodology and the aminoglycoside dose similarity. One-compartment models described the PK data and human values for clearance and volume of distribution were predicted to 7.07 L/hour and 26.8 L, respectively. The required fAUC/MIC (area under the unbound drug concentration-time curve over MIC ratio) targets for stasis and 1-log kill in the thigh model were 34.5 and 76.2, respectively. The developed PK/PD model predicted the efficacy data well with strain-specific differences in susceptibility, maximum bacterial load, and resistance development. All three dose prediction approaches supported an apramycin daily dose of 30 mg/kg for a typical adult patient. The results indicate that the mechanistic PK/PD modeling approach can be suitable for HED prediction and serves to efficiently integrate all available efficacy data with potential to improve predictive capacity.
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| 40. |
- Yao, Y., et al.
(author)
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Highly Concentrated Hydroxyapatite Suspension for DLP Printing
- 2019
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In: IOP Conference Series. - : Institute of Physics Publishing.
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Due to the lack of commercially available high-quality hydroxyapatite (HA) powder, it is still rarely reported by the literature concerning the development of UV resin for digital light processing 3D printing. The previous studies still had the problem of delamination and also poor sintering performance led by low solid-load slurry. Here low viscosity and high solid-load hydroxyapatite (HA) UV resin suspensions were developed for digital light processing 3D printing. In this study, the effect of the type of dispersant, the dose levels of dispersant and the solid load of HA powder on the rheology properties were thoroughly investigated to obtain a flowable highly-concentrated HA UV resin suspension. Finally, a 40vol% slurry with viscosity of 3.7Pa•s at a shear rate of 10 s-1 was successfully developed. After 3D printing and sintering, a dense ceramic with relative density of 95.85% can be obtained at a sintering temperature of 1300°C.
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| 41. |
- Zhang, J., et al.
(author)
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Designing against phase and property heterogeneities in additively manufactured titanium alloys
- 2022
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Additive manufacturing (AM) creates digitally designed parts by successive addition of material. However, owing to intrinsic thermal cycling, metallic parts produced by AM almost inevitably suffer from spatially dependent heterogeneities in phases and mechanical properties, which may cause unpredictable service failures. Here, we demonstrate a synergistic alloy design approach to overcome this issue in titanium alloys manufactured by laser powder bed fusion. The key to our approach is in-situ alloying of Ti−6Al−4V (in weight per cent) with combined additions of pure titanium powders and iron oxide (Fe2O3) nanoparticles. This not only enables in-situ elimination of phase heterogeneity through diluting V concentration whilst introducing small amounts of Fe, but also compensates for the strength loss via oxygen solute strengthening. Our alloys achieve spatially uniform microstructures and mechanical properties which are superior to those of Ti−6Al−4V. This study may help to guide the design of other alloys, which not only overcomes the challenge inherent to the AM processes, but also takes advantage of the alloy design opportunities offered by AM.
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| 42. |
- Zhao, Chenyan, et al.
(author)
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Quantifying combined effects of colistin and ciprofloxacin against Escherichia coli in an in silico pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model
- 2024
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In: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 14:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Co-administering a low dose of colistin (CST) with ciprofloxacin (CIP) may improve the antibacterial effect against resistant Escherichia coli, offering an acceptable benefit-risk balance. This study aimed to quantify the interaction between ciprofloxacin and colistin in an in silico pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model from in vitro static time-kill experiments (using strains with minimum inhibitory concentrations, MICCIP 0.023–1 mg/L and MICCST 0.5–0.75 mg/L). It was also sought to demonstrate an approach of simulating concentrations at the site of infection with population pharmacokinetic and whole-body physiologically based pharmacokinetic models to explore the clinical value of the combination when facing more resistant strains (using extrapolated strains with lower susceptibility). The combined effect in the final model was described as the sum of individual drug effects with a change in drug potency: for ciprofloxacin, concentration at half maximum killing rate (EC50) in combination was 160% of the EC50 in monodrug experiments, while for colistin, the change in EC50 was strain-dependent from 54.1% to 119%. The benefit of co-administrating a lower-than-commonly-administrated colistin dose with ciprofloxacin in terms of drug effect in comparison to either monotherapy was predicted in simulated bloodstream infections and pyelonephritis. The study illustrates the value of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling and simulation in streamlining rational development of antibiotic combinations.
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| 43. |
- Zheng, D., et al.
(author)
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LaNi x Fe 1- x O 3 (0 ≤ x ≤1) as photothermal catalysts for hydrocarbon fuels production from CO 2 and H 2 O
- 2019
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In: Journal of Photochemistry and Photobiology A. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 1010-6030 .- 1873-2666. ; 377, s. 182-189
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- LaNi x Fe 1- x O 3 perovskite compounds (x = 0, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0) were successfully synthesized by a sol-gel combustion method. The crystal structure, morphology, BET surface area, oxygen vacancies, band gap and catalytic properties of the catalyst were characterized in detail. The results showed that LaNi 0.4 Fe 0.6 O 3 compound exhibits the best photothermal catalytic performance. Under the same catalytic conditions (350 ℃ + Vis-light), CH 4 and CH 3 OH yields are about 3.5 and 4.0 times, 1.8 and 2.1 times of that of LaFeO 3 and LaNiO 3 . It was found that all the solid solutions possesses better catalytic properties than the pure end compounds. The doping of Ni lead to a significant modification with the quantity of oxygen vacancies and band gaps. These findings may further broaden the materials scope for photothermal conversion of CO 2 and H 2 O.
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| 44. |
- Zhou, Sha, et al.
(author)
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Sources of uncertainty in modeled land carbon storage within and across three MIPs : Diagnosis with three new techniques
- 2018
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In: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755. ; 31:7, s. 2833-2851
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Terrestrial carbon cycle models have incorporated increasingly more processes as a means to achieve more-realistic representations of ecosystem carbon cycling. Despite this, there are large across-model variations in the simulation and projection of carbon cycling. Several model intercomparison projects (MIPs), for example, the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (historical simulations), Trends in Net Land-Atmosphere Carbon Exchange (TRENDY), and Multiscale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Intercomparison Project (MsTMIP), have sought to understand intermodel differences. In this study, the authors developed a suite of new techniques to conduct post-MIP analysis to gain insights into uncertainty sources across 25 models in the three MIPs. First, terrestrial carbon storage dynamics were characterized by a three-dimensional (3D) model output space with coordinates of carbon residence time, net primary productivity (NPP), and carbon storage potential. The latter represents the potential of an ecosystem to lose or gain carbon. This space can be used to measure how and why model output differs. Models with a nitrogen cycle generally exhibit lower annual NPP in comparison with other models, and mostly negative carbon storage potential. Second, a transient traceability framework was used to decompose any given carbon cycle model into traceable components and identify the sources of model differences. The carbon residence time (or NPP) was traced to baseline carbon residence time (or baseline NPP related to the maximum carbon input), environmental scalars, and climate forcing. Third, by applying a variance decomposition method, the authors show that the intermodel differences in carbon storage can be mainly attributed to the baseline carbon residence time and baseline NPP (>90% in the three MIPs). The three techniques developed in this study offer a novel approach to gain more insight from existing MIPs and can point out directions for future MIPs. Since this study is conducted at the global scale for an overview on intermodel differences, future studies should focus more on regional analysis to identify the sources of uncertainties and improve models at the specified mechanism level.
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