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- Aad, G, et al.
(författare)
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- 2015
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 11. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 14. |
- Dahl-Jensen, D., et al.
(författare)
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Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 493:7433, s. 489-494
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Efforts to extract a Greenland ice core with a complete record of the Eemian interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) have until now been unsuccessful. The response of the Greenland ice sheet to the warmer-than-present climate of the Eemian has thus remained unclear. Here we present the new North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling ('NEEM') ice core and show only a modest ice-sheet response to the strong warming in the early Eemian. We reconstructed the Eemian record from folded ice using globally homogeneous parameters known from dated Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. On the basis of water stable isotopes, NEEM surface temperatures after the onset of the Eemian (126,000 years ago) peaked at 8 +/- 4 degrees Celsius above the mean of the past millennium, followed by a gradual cooling that was probably driven by the decreasing summer insolation. Between 128,000 and 122,000 years ago, the thickness of the northwest Greenland ice sheet decreased by 400 +/- 250 metres, reaching surface elevations 122,000 years ago of 130 +/- 300 metres lower than the present. Extensive surface melt occurred at the NEEM site during the Eemian, a phenomenon witnessed when melt layers formed again at NEEM during the exceptional heat of July 2012. With additional warming, surface melt might become more common in the future.
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| 15. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 16. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
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Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
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| 17. |
- Su, Zhan, et al.
(författare)
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Common variants at the MHC locus and at chromosome 16q24.1 predispose to Barrett's esophagus.
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Barrett's esophagus is an increasingly common disease that is strongly associated with reflux of stomach acid and usually a hiatus hernia, and it strongly predisposes to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), a tumor with a very poor prognosis. We report the first genome-wide association study on Barrett's esophagus, comprising 1,852 UK cases and 5,172 UK controls in the discovery stage and 5,986 cases and 12,825 controls in the replication stage. Variants at two loci were associated with disease risk: chromosome 6p21, rs9257809 (Pcombined=4.09×10(-9); odds ratio (OR)=1.21, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.13-1.28), within the major histocompatibility complex locus, and chromosome 16q24, rs9936833 (Pcombined=2.74×10(-10); OR=1.14, 95% CI=1.10-1.19), for which the closest protein-coding gene is FOXF1, which is implicated in esophageal development and structure. We found evidence that many common variants of small effect contribute to genetic susceptibility to Barrett's esophagus and that SNP alleles predisposing to obesity also increase risk for Barrett's esophagus.
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| 19. |
- Jarvis, Erich D., et al.
(författare)
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Whole-genome analyses resolve early branches in the tree of life of modern birds
- 2014
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 346:6215, s. 1320-1331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To better determine the history of modern birds, we performed a genome-scale phylogenetic analysis of 48 species representing all orders of Neoaves using phylogenomic methods created to handle genome-scale data. We recovered a highly resolved tree that confirms previously controversial sister or close relationships. We identified the first divergence in Neoaves, two groups we named Passerea and Columbea, representing independent lineages of diverse and convergently evolved land and water bird species. Among Passerea, we infer the common ancestor of core landbirds to have been an apex predator and confirm independent gains of vocal learning. Among Columbea, we identify pigeons and flamingoes as belonging to sister clades. Even with whole genomes, some of the earliest branches in Neoaves proved challenging to resolve, which was best explained by massive protein-coding sequence convergence and high levels of incomplete lineage sorting that occurred during a rapid radiation after the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction event about 66 million years ago.
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| 22. |
- Oliveros, Carl H., et al.
(författare)
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Earth history and the passerine superradiation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:16, s. 7916-7925
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Avian diversification has been influenced by global climate change, plate tectonic movements, and mass extinction events. However, the impact of these factors on the diversification of the hyper-diverse perching birds (passerines) is unclear because family level relationships are unresolved and the timing of splitting events among lineages is uncertain. We analyzed DNA data from 4,060 nuclear loci and 137 passerine families using concatenation and coalescent approaches to infer a comprehensive phylogenetic hypothesis that clarifies relationships among all passerine families. Then, we calibrated this phylogeny using 13 fossils to examine the effects of different events in Earth history on the timing and rate of passerine diversification. Our analyses reconcile passerine diversification with the fossil and geological records; suggest that passerines originated on the Australian landmass ∼47 Ma; and show that subsequent dispersal and diversification of passerines was affected by a number of climatological and geological events, such as Oligocene glaciation and inundation of the New Zealand landmass. Although passerine diversification rates fluctuated throughout the Cenozoic, we find no link between the rate of passerine diversification and Cenozoic global temperature, and our analyses show that the increases in passerine diversification rate we observe are disconnected from the colonization of new continents. Taken together, these results suggest more complex mechanisms than temperature change or ecological opportunity have controlled macroscale patterns of passerine speciation.
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| 23. |
- Bonnet, Timothee, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 376:6596, s. 1012-1016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.
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| 24. |
- Jones, Owen R., et al.
(författare)
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Senescence rates are determined by ranking on the fast-slow life-history continuum
- 2008
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Ingår i: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 11:7, s. 664-673
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparative analyses of survival senescence by using life tables have identified generalizations including the observation that mammals senesce faster than similar-sized birds. These generalizations have been challenged because of limitations of life-table approaches and the growing appreciation that senescence is more than an increasing probability of death. Without using life tables, we examine senescence rates in annual individual fitness using 20 individual-based data sets of terrestrial vertebrates with contrasting life histories and body size. We find that senescence is widespread in the wild and equally likely to occur in survival and reproduction. Additionally, mammals senesce faster than birds because they have a faster life history for a given body size. By allowing us to disentangle the effects of two major fitness components our methods allow an assessment of the robustness of the prevalent life-table approach. Focusing on one aspect of life history - survival or recruitment - can provide reliable information on overall senescence.
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| 25. |
- Pironi, Loris, et al.
(författare)
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Characteristics of adult patients with chronic intestinal failure due to short bowel syndrome: An international multicenter survey
- 2021
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Ingår i: Clinical Nutrition ESPEN. - : Elsevier BV. - 2405-4577. ; 45, s. 433-441
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background and aims: The case-mix of patients with intestinal failure due to short bowel syndrome (SBS-IF) can differ among centres and may also be affected by the timeframe of data collection. Therefore, the ESPEN international multicenter cross-sectional survey was analyzed to compare the characteristics of SBS-IF cohorts collected within the same timeframe in different countries. Methods: The study included 1880 adult SBS-IF patients collected in 2015 by 65 centres from 22 countries. The demographic, nutritional, SBS type (end jejunostomy, SBS-J; jejuno-colic anastomosis, SBS-JC; jejunoileal anastomosis with an intact colon and ileocecal valve, SBS-JIC), underlying disease and intravenous supplementation (IVS) characteristics were analyzed. IVS was classified as fluid and electrolyte alone (FE) or parenteral nutrition admixture (PN). The mean daily IVS volume, calculated on a weekly basis, was categorized as <1, 1–2, 2–3 and >3 L/day. Results: In the entire group: 60.7% were females and SBS-J comprised 60% of cases, while mesenteric ischaemia (MI) and Crohn’ disease (CD) were the main underlying diseases. IVS dependency was longer than 3 years in around 50% of cases; IVS was infused ≥5 days/week in 75% and FE in 10% of cases. Within the SBS-IF cohort: CD was twice and thrice more frequent in SBS-J than SBS-JC and SBS-JIC, respectively, while MI was more frequent in SBS-JC and SBS-JIC. Within countries: SBS-J represented 75% or more of patients in UK and Denmark and 50-60% in the other countries, except Poland where SBS-JC prevailed. CD was the main underlying disease in UK, USA, Denmark and The Netherlands, while MI prevailed in France, Italy and Poland. Conclusions: SBS-IF type is primarily determined by the underlying disease, with significant variation between countries. These novel data will be useful for planning and managing both clinical activity and research studies on SBS.
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| 27. |
- Samplonius, Jelmer M., et al.
(författare)
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Strengthening the evidence base for temperature-mediated phenological asynchrony and its impacts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Ecology and Evolution. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-334X. ; 5:2, s. 155-164
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate warming has caused the seasonal timing of many components of ecological food chains to advance. In the context of trophic interactions, the match–mismatch hypothesis postulates that differential shifts can lead to phenological asynchrony with negative impacts for consumers. However, at present there has been no consistent analysis of the links between temperature change, phenological asynchrony and individual-to-population-level impacts across taxa, trophic levels and biomes at a global scale. Here, we propose five criteria that all need to be met to demonstrate that temperature-mediated trophic asynchrony poses a growing risk to consumers. We conduct a literature review of 109 papers studying 129 taxa, and find that all five criteria are assessed for only two taxa, with the majority of taxa only having one or two criteria assessed. Crucially, nearly every study was conducted in Europe or North America, and most studies were on terrestrial secondary consumers. We thus lack a robust evidence base from which to draw general conclusions about the risk that climate-mediated trophic asynchrony may pose to populations worldwide.
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| 29. |
- Simons, Malorie, et al.
(författare)
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Celiac Disease and Increased Risk of Pneumococcal Infection : a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
- 2017
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Ingår i: American Journal of Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 0002-9343 .- 1555-7162. ; 131:1, s. 83-89
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Celiac disease has been associated with hyposplenism and multiple case reports link Celiac disease and pneumococcal infections; however, increased risk of pneumococcal infection in celiac disease has not been confirmed. The purpose of this study was to conduct a systematic review to determine the risk of pneumococcal infections in celiac disease.METHODS: Relevant studies were identified using electronic bibliographic searches of PubMed, OVID Medline and EMBASE (1980 to February 2017) and reviewing abstracts from major conferences in gastroenterology. Using number of events in celiac patients and referent patients we calculated a summary relative risk of pneumococcal infections. All analyses were conducted in Comprehensive Meta-analysis software using random-effects assumptions.RESULTS: Of a total of 156 manuscripts, 3, representing three large databases including the Swedish National Inpatient Register; the Oxford Record Linkage Study; and the English National Hospital Episode Statistics, were included. Each compared patients with celiac disease and confirmed pneumococcal infection to a specific reference group: inpatients and/or the general population. Overall, the odds of pneumococcal infection were higher among hospitalized celiac patients compared to controls (odds ratio= 1.66; CI 95% 1.43, 1.92). There was no evidence of heterogeneity (Q[1] = 1.17, p = .56, I(2) = 0%).CONCLUSIONS: Celiac disease is associated with an increased risk of pneumococcal infection. Preventive pneumococcal vaccination should be considered for those with celiac disease, with special attention to those ages 15 to 64 who have not received the scheduled pneumococcal vaccination series as a child.
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