| 1. |
- Papritz, Lukas, et al.
(author)
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The Role of Local and Remote Processes for Wintertime Surface Energy Budget Extremes over Arctic Sea Ice
- 2023
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In: Journal of Climate. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 36:21, s. 7657-7674
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Arctic warm extremes and anomalous sea ice melting have been linked to episodic injections of warm and moist air from midlatitudes, as well as airmass transformations inside the Arctic. However, the relative importance of remote and local processes for such events remains unclear. Here, we focus on events with extreme positive daily-mean surface energy budget (SEB) anomalies over Arctic sea ice in ERA5 data during extended winters (November-March during 1979-2020). Kinematic backward trajectories from the tropospheric column collocated with the SEB anomalies show that near-surface air is of Arctic origin, whereas air farther aloft is transported poleward from the midlatitudes and ascends. Despite the different origin of the air, the entire tropospheric column shows pronounced potential temperature anomalies (on the order of 10 K) building up along air-parcel trajectories over 2-4 days. Quantifying the contributions of horizontal and vertical transport as well as diabatic processes to the generation of these potential temperature anomalies emphasizes the relevance of horizontal advection across the climatological potential temperature gradient for the generation of the anomalies at all levels. Anomalies aloft are further enhanced by latent heating and those near the surface by subsidence, respectively. Surface heat fluxes over subpolar and polar oceans are key for warming and moistening the near-surface air of predominantly Arctic origin and maintaining a positive potential temperature anomaly, which due to its proximity to the surface unfolds the strongest impact on the SEB. This suggests that Arctic airmasses and their local transformations are crucial for generating the most extreme SEB anomalies.
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| 2. |
- Böö, Sebastian, 1979-, et al.
(author)
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Transport of Mineral Dust Into the Arctic in Two Reanalysis Datasets of Atmospheric Composition
- 2023
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In: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology. - 0280-6509 .- 1600-0889. ; 75:1, s. 13-32
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Two three-dimensional reanalysis datasets of atmospheric composition, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service reanalysis (CAMSRA) and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), are analyzed for the years 2003-2018 with respect to dust transport into the Arctic. The reanalyses agree on that the largest mass transport of dust into the Arctic occurs across western Russia during spring and early summer, but substantial transport events occasionally also occur across other geographical areas during all seasons. In many aspects, however, the reanalyses show considerable differences: the mass transport in MERRA-2 is substantially larger, more spread out, and occurs at higher altitudes than in CAMSRA, while the transport in CAMSRA is to a higher degree focused to well-defined events in space and time; the integrated mass transport of the 10 most intense 36-hour dust events in CAMSRA constitutes 6 % of the total integrated dust transport 2003-2018, whereas the corresponding value for MERRA-2 is only 1 %.Furthermore, we compare the reanalyses with surface measurements of dust in the Arctic and dust extinction retrievals from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) satellite data. This comparison indicates that CAMSRA underestimates the dust transport into the Arctic and that MERRA-2 likely overestimates it. The discrepancy between CAMSRA and MERRA-2 can partially be explained by the assimilation process where too little dust is assimilated in CAMSRA while in MERRA-2, the assimilation process increases the dust concentration in remote areas. Despite the profound differences between the reanalyses regarding dust transport into the Arctic, this study still brings new insights into the spatio-temporal distribution of the transport. We estimate the annual dust transport into the Arctic to be within the range 1.5-31 Tg, where the comparison with observations indicates that the lower end of the interval is less likely.
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| 3. |
- Ekman, Annica M. L., 1972-, et al.
(author)
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Influence of horizontal resolution and complexity of aerosol–cloud interactions on marine stratocumulus and stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition in HadGEM3-GC3.1
- 2023
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In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. - 0035-9009 .- 1477-870X. ; 755:149, s. 2049-2066
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Stratocumulus (Sc) clouds and stratocumulus-to-cumulus transitions (SCTs) are challenging to represent in global models and they contribute to a large spread in modeled subtropical cloud feedbacks. We evaluate the impact of increasing the horizontal model resolution (∼135, 60 and 25 km, respectively) and increasing the complexity of the aerosol–cloud interaction parameterization (interactive versus non-interactive at medium resolution) on springtime subtropical marine Sc properties and SCTs in the atmosphere-only version of HadGEM3-GC3.1. No significant impact on the spatial location of the SCT could be found between the different model versions. Increasing horizontal resolution led to small but significant increases in liquid water content and a stronger (more negative) shortwave (SW) cloud radiative effect (CRE), in particular over the southern-hemisphere Sc regions. However, for two out of the four studied regions, the stronger SW CRE also brought the model outside the range of satellite-derived values of the SW CRE. Applying non-interactive aerosols instead of interactive aerosols also led to significantly higher liquid water content and a stronger SW CRE over the southern-hemisphere Sc regions, while over the northern-hemisphere Sc regions, a competition between a substantial increase in the cloud droplet number concentration and small changes in the liquid water content resulted in a weaker SW CRE or non-significant changes. In general, using interactive instead of non-interactive aerosol–cloud interactions brought the model closer to satellite-retrieved mean values of the SW CRE. Our results suggest that increasing the horizontal resolution or the complexity of the aerosol–cloud parameterization has a small but statistically significant effect on the SW CRE of marine Sc, in particular over regions with high liquid water content. For these regions, the effect of introducing non-interactive versus interactive aerosol–cloud interactions is about as large as increasing the horizontal resolution from medium to high.
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| 4. |
- Fries, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Lagrangian Supersaturation Fluctuations at the Cloud Edge
- 2023
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In: Physical Review Letters. - : American Physical Society (APS). - 1079-7114 .- 0031-9007. ; 131:25
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Evaporation of cloud droplets accelerates when turbulence mixes dry air into the cloud, affecting droplet-size distributions in atmospheric clouds, combustion sprays, and jets of exhaled droplets. The challenge is to model local correlations between droplet numbers, sizes, and supersaturation, which determine supersaturation fluctuations along droplet paths (Lagrangian fluctuations). We derived a statistical model that accounts for these correlations. Its predictions are in quantitative agreement with results of direct numerical simulations, and explain the key mechanisms at play.
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| 5. |
- Hartung, Kerstin, 1989-, et al.
(author)
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Exploring the Dynamics of an Arctic Sea Ice Melt Event Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Single-Column Model (AOSCM)
- 2022
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In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. - 1942-2466. ; 14:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Arctic climate system is host to many processes which interact vertically over the tightly coupled atmosphere, sea ice and ocean. The coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Single-Column Model (AOSCM) allows to decouple local small-scale and large-scale processes to investigate the model performance in an idealized setting. Here, an observed Arctic warm air intrusion event is used to show how to identify model deficiencies using the AOSCM. The AOSCM allows us to effectively produce a large number of perturbation simulations, around 1,000, to map sensitivities of the model results due to changes in physical and model properties as well as to the large-scale tendencies. The analysis of the summary diagnostics, that is, aggregated results from sensitivity experiments evaluated against modeled physical properties, such as surface energy budget and mean sea ice thickness, reveals sensitivities to the chosen parameters. Further, we discuss how the conclusions can be used to understand the behavior of the global host model. The simulations confirm that the horizontal advection of heat and moisture plays an important role for maintaining a low-level cloud cover, as in earlier studies. The combined cloud layers increase the energy input to the surface, which in turn enhances the ongoing melt. The clouds present an additional sensitivity in terms of how they are represented but also their interaction with the large-scale advection and the model time step. The methodology can be used for a variety of other regions, where the coupling to the ocean is important.
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| 6. |
- Li, Xiang-Yu, 1990-, et al.
(author)
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Collision Fluctuations of Lucky Droplets with Superdroplets
- 2022
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In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. - : American Meteorological Society. - 0022-4928 .- 1520-0469. ; 79:7, s. 1821-1835
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It was previously shown that the superdroplet algorithm for modeling the collision-coalescence process can faithfully represent mean droplet growth in turbulent clouds. An open question is how accurately the superdroplet algorithm accounts for fluctuations in the collisional aggregation process. Such fluctuations are particularly important in dilute suspensions. Even in the absence of turbulence, Poisson fluctuations of collision times in dilute suspensions may result in substantial variations in the growth process, resulting in a broad distribution of growth times to reach a certain droplet size. We quantify the accuracy of the superdroplet algorithm in describing the fluctuating growth history of a larger droplet that settles under the effect of gravity in a quiescent fluid and collides with a dilute suspension of smaller droplets that were initially randomly distributed in space ("lucky droplet model"). We assess the effect of fluctuations upon the growth history of the lucky droplet and compute the distribution of cumulative collision times. The latter is shown to be sensitive enough to detect the subtle increase of fluctuations associated with collisions between multiple lucky droplets. The superdroplet algorithm incorporates fluctuations in two distinct ways: through the random spatial distribution of superdroplets and through the Monte Carlo collision algorithm involved. Using specifically designed numerical experiments, we show that both on their own give an accurate representation of fluctuations. We conclude that the superdroplet algorithm can faithfully represent fluctuations in the coagulation of droplets driven by gravity.
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| 7. |
- Murto, Sonja, 1992-, et al.
(author)
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Extreme surface energy budget anomalies in the high Arctic in winter
- 2023
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In: Journal of Climate. - 0894-8755 .- 1520-0442. ; 36:11, s. 3591-3609
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In recent decades, the Arctic has warmed faster than the global mean, especially during winter. This has been attributed to various causes, with recent studies highlighting the importance of enhanced downward infrared radiation associated with anomalous inflow of warm, moist air from lower latitudes. Here, we study wintertime surface energy budget (SEB) anomalies over Arctic sea ice on synoptic time scales, using ERA5 (1979–2020). We introduce a new algorithm to identify areas with extreme, positive daily mean SEB anomalies and connect them to form spatiotemporal life cycle events. Most of these events are associated with large-scale inflow from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, driven by poleward deflection of the storm track and blocks over northern Eurasia and Alaska. Events originate near the ice edge, where they have roughly equal contributions of net longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes to the positive SEB anomaly. As the events move farther into the Arctic, SEB anomalies decrease due to weakening sensible and latent heat-flux anomalies, while the surface temperature anomaly increases toward the peak of the events along with the downward longwave radiation anomaly. Due to these temporal and spatial differences, the largest SEB anomalies are not always related to strongest surface warming. Thus, studying temperature anomalies alone might not be sufficient to determine sea ice changes. This study highlights the importance of turbulent fluxes in driving SEB anomalies and downward longwave radiation in determining local surface warming. Therefore, both processes need to be accurately represented in climate models.
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| 8. |
- Murto, Sonja, et al.
(author)
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Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives wintertime warm extremes in the high Arctic
- 2022
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In: Weather and Climate Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2698-4024 .- 2698-4016. ; 3:1, s. 21-44
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric blocking can influence Arctic weather by diverting the mean westerly flow and steering cyclones polewards, bringing warm, moist air to high latitudes. Recent studies have shown that diabatic heating processes in the ascending warm conveyor belt branch of extratropical cyclones are relevant to blocking dynamics. This leads to the question of the extent to which diabatic heating associated with mid-latitude cyclones may influence high-latitude blocking and drive Arctic warm events. In this study we investigate the dynamics behind 50 extreme warm events of wintertime high-Arctic temperature anomalies during 1979–2016. Classifying the warm events based on blocking occurrence within three selected sectors, we find that 30 of these events are associated with a block over the Urals, featuring negative upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies over central Siberia north of the Ural Mountains. Lagrangian back-trajectory calculations show that almost 60% of the air parcels making up these negative PV anomalies experience lifting and diabatic heating (median 11 K) in the 6 d prior to the block. Further, almost 70% of the heated trajectories undergo maximum heating in a compact regionof the mid-latitude North Atlantic, temporally taking place between 6 and 1 d before arriving in the blocking region. We also find anomalously high cyclone activity (on average five cyclones within this 5d heating window) within a sector northwest of the main heating domain. In addition, 10 of the 50 warm events are associated with blocking over Scandinavia. Around 60% of the 6 d back trajectories started from these blocks experience diabatic heating, of which 60% undergo maximum heating over the North Atlantic but generally closer to the time of arrival in the block and further upstream relative to heated trajectories associated with Ural blocking. This study suggests that, in addition to the ability of blocks to guide cyclones northwards, Atlantic cyclones play a significant role in the dynamics of high-latitude blocking by providing low-PV air via moist-diabatic processes. This emphasizes the importance of the mutual interactions between mid-latitude cyclones and Eurasian blocking for wintertime Arctic warm extremes.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Ortega, Pablo, et al.
(author)
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Improving Arctic Weather and Seasonal Climate Prediction : Recommendations for Future Forecast Systems Evolution from the European Project APPLICATE
- 2022
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 103:10, s. E2203-E2213
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Arctic environment is changing, increasing the vulnerability of local communities and ecosystems, and impacting its socio-economic landscape. In this context, weather and climate prediction systems can be powerful tools to support strategic planning and decision-making at different time horizons. This article presents several success stories from the H2020 project APPLICATE on how to advance Arctic weather and seasonal climate prediction, synthesizing the key lessons learned throughout the project and providing recommendations for future model and forecast system development.
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| 11. |
- Persson, Josefine, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Long- term cost of spouses’ informal support for dependent midlife stroke survivors
- 2017
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In: Brain and Behavior. - : Wiley. - 2162-3279. ; 7:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Stroke is a major global disease that requires extensive care and support from society and relatives. The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the long- term informal support and to estimate the annual cost of informal support provided by spouses to their stroke surviving partner. Method: Data were based on the 7- year follow- up of the Sahlgrenska Academy Study on Ischemic Stroke. One- third of the spouses stated that they provided support to their stroke surviving partner. The magnitude of the support was assessed with a study- specific time- diary and was estimated for independent and dependent stroke survivors based on the scores of the modified Rankin Scale. To deal with skewed data, a two- part econometric model was used to estimate the annual cost of informal support. Result: Cohabitant dyads of 221 stroke survivors aged <70 at stroke onset were in- cluded in the study. Spouses of independent stroke survivors ( n = 188) provided on average 0.15 hr/day of practical support and 0.48 hr/day of being available. Corresponding figures for spouses of dependent stroke survivors ( n = 33) were 5.00 regarding practical support and 9.51 regarding being available. The mean annual cost of informal support provided for independent stroke survivors was estimated at €991 and €25,127 for dependent stroke survivor. Conclusion: The opportunity cost of informal support provided to dependent midlife stroke survivors is of a major magnitude many years after stroke onset and should be considered in economic evaluations of health care.
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| 12. |
- Pithan, Felix, et al.
(author)
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Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations : a case study from the MOSAiC expedition
- 2023
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 16:7, s. 1857-1873
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation.
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| 13. |
- Selldén, Tilia, 1996, et al.
(author)
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Radiographic airway abnormalities in untreated early rheumatoid arthritis are associated with peripheral neutrophil activation
- 2023
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In: Arthritis Research & Therapy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1478-6362. ; 25:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The role of the lung for the initiation and progression of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is still unclear. Up to 10% of RA patients develop interstitial lung disease which remains a clinical challenge. Understanding early disease mechanisms is of great importance. The objective of this study was to determine whether there is an association between peripheral neutrophil phenotypes and presence of pulmonary abnormalities (PA) on chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) in untreated early RA (ueRA).MethodsClinical data and blood were collected, and HRCT performed at diagnosis on 30 consecutive anti-citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) and/or rheumatoid factor (RF) positive ueRA patients. HRCTs were evaluated for the presence of RA-associated parenchymal, airway and/or pleural abnormalities. Expression of phenotype markers on neutrophils were determined by flow cytometry. Levels of calprotectin, ACPA and RF were measured using immunoassays.ResultsThe frequency of having any PA was 60%. Airway abnormalities were present in 50%, parenchymal nodules in 43% and interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) in 10%. Unsupervised multivariate data analysis showed clustering of any PA with neutrophil activation, parameters of inflammation and RF titres. In univariate analysis, the patients with PA displayed significantly increased CD11b and decreased CD62L expression on neutrophils (1.2-fold, p = 0.014; 0.8-fold, p = 0.012) indicating activation and significantly increased RF IgM titre and CRP (5.7-fold, p = 0.0025; 2.3-fold, p = 0.0035) as compared to no PA. Titres of RF, but not ACPA, correlated with expression of the neutrophil activation marker CD11b. A stratified analysis demonstrated that airway involvement was the PA subtype with the strongest association with neutrophil activation.ConclusionWe report a strong association between radiographic airway findings and activation of circulating neutrophils in early RA supporting a role of innate immunity and the lung at disease onset. Our results also indicate different contributions of RF and ACPA in the RA pathogenesis.
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| 14. |
- Shupe, M. D., et al.
(author)
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Overview of the MOSAiC expedition : Atmosphere
- 2022
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In: Elementa. - : University of California Press. - 2325-1026. ; 10:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- With the Arctic rapidly changing, the needs to observe, understand, and model the changes are essential. To support these needs, an annual cycle of observations of atmospheric properties, processes, and interactions were made while drifting with the sea ice across the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition from October 2019 to September 2020. An international team designed and implemented the comprehensive program to document and characterize all aspects of the Arctic atmospheric system in unprecedented detail, using a variety of approaches, and across multiple scales. These measurements were coordinated with other observational teams to explore crosscutting and coupled interactions with the Arctic Ocean, sea ice, and ecosystem through a variety of physical and biogeochemical processes. This overview outlines the breadth and complexity of the atmospheric research program, which was organized into 4 subgroups: atmospheric state, clouds and precipitation, gases and aerosols, and energy budgets. Atmospheric variability over the annual cycle revealed important influences from a persistent large-scale winter circulation pattern, leading to some storms with pressure and winds that were outside the interquartile range of past conditions suggested by long-term reanalysis. Similarly, the MOSAiC location was warmer and wetter in summer than the reanalysis climatology, in part due to its close proximity to the sea ice edge. The comprehensiveness of the observational program for characterizing and analyzing atmospheric phenomena is demonstrated via a winter case study examining air mass transitions and a summer case study examining vertical atmospheric evolution. Overall, the MOSAiC atmospheric program successfully met its objectives and was the most comprehensive atmospheric measurement program to date conducted over the Arctic sea ice. The obtained data will support a broad range of coupled-system scientific research and provide an important foundation for advancing multiscale modeling capabilities in the Arctic.
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| 15. |
- Solomon, Amy, et al.
(author)
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The winter central Arctic surface energy budget : A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign
- 2023
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In: Elementa. - 2325-1026. ; 11:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near -surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean -sea ice -atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and nearsurface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system.This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid -bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub -surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.
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| 16. |
- Svensson, Gunilla, 1966-, et al.
(author)
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Analysis of Model Results for the Turning of the Wind and Related Momentum Fluxes in the Stable Boundary Layer
- 2009
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In: Boundary-layer Meteorology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0006-8314 .- 1573-1472. ; 132:2, s. 261-277
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The turning of wind with height and the related cross-isobaric (ageostrophic) flow in the thermally stable stratified boundary layer is analysed from a variety of model results acquired in the first Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS1). From the governing equations in this particular simple case it becomes clear that the cross-isobaric flow is solely determined by the surface turbulent stress in the direction of the geostrophic wind for the quasi-steady state conditions under consideration. Most models indeed seem to approach this relationship but for very different absolute values. Because turbulence closures used in operational models typically tend to give too deep a boundary layer, the integrated total cross-isobaric mass flux is up to three times that given by research numerical models and large-eddy simulation. In addition, the angle between the surface and the geostrophic wind is typically too low, which has important implications for the representation of the larger-scale flow. It appears that some models provide inconsistent results for the surface angle and the momentum flux profile, and when the results from these models are removed from the analysis, the remaining ten models do show a unique relationship between the boundary-layer depth and the surface angle, consistent with the theory given. The present results also imply that it is beneficial to locate the first model level rather close to the surface for a proper representation of the turning of wind with height in the stable boundary layer.
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| 17. |
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